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DOE OSTI2024

Existence of a Nonzero Worst‐Case ACH for Short‐Term Exposure in Ventilated Indoor Spaces

A well‐ventilated room is essential to reduce the risk of airborne transmission. As such, the scientific community sets minimum limits on ventilation with the idea that increased ventilation reduces pathogen concentration and thus reduces the risk of transmission. In contrast, the upper limit on ventilation is usually determined by human comfort and the need to reduce energy consumption. While average pathogen concentration decreases with increased ventilation, local concentration depends on multiple factors and may not follow the same trend, especially within short exposure times over large separation distances. Here, we show through experiments and high‐fidelity simulations the existence of a worst‐case ventilation where local pathogen concentration increases near the receiving host. This occurs during the type of meetings that were recommended during the pandemic (and in some cases solely authorized) with reduced occupancy adhering to social distancing and short exposure times below 20 minutes. We maintain that for cases of high occupancy and long exposure time, increased ventilation remains necessary.

Construction & Building Technology↗

DOE OSTI2017

WARP

WARP, which can stand for ``Weaving All the Random Particles,'' is a three-dimensional (3D) continuous energy Monte Carlo neutron transport code developed at UC Berkeley to efficiently execute on NVIDIA graphics processing unit (GPU) platforms. WARP accelerates Monte Carlo simulations while preserving the benefits of using the Monte Carlo method, namely, that very few physical and geometrical simplifications are applied. WARP is able to calculate multiplication factors, neutron flux distributions (in both space and energy), and fission source distributions for time-independent neutron transport problems. It can run in both criticality or fixed source modes, but fixed source mode is currently not robust, optimized, or maintained in the newest version. WARP can transport neutrons in unrestricted arrangements of parallelepipeds, hexagonal prisms, cylinders, and spheres. The goal of developing WARP is to investigate algorithms that can grow into a full-featured, continuous energy, Monte Carlo neutron transport code that is accelerated by running on GPUs. The crux of the effort is to make Monte Carlo calculations faster while producing accurate results. Modern supercomputers are commonly being built with GPU coprocessor cards in their nodes to increase their computational efficiency and performance. GPUs execute efficiently on data-parallel problems, but most CPU codes, including those for Monte Carlo neutral particle transport, are predominantly task-parallel. WARP uses a data-parallel neutron transport algorithm to take advantage of the computing power GPUs offer.

Bergmann, RyanM. [University of California - Berke↗

DOE OSTI2022

Storm DEPART(Damage Estimate Prediction And Recovery Tool)

Damage prediction, materials needed, and resource allocation modeling capability in order to support pre-incident planning and preparation by predicting damage to the power generation capacity, transmission grids, distribution networks, and communications assets. The capabilities will be developed by multiple factors to include wind bands, storm surge, and flooding forecasts to participant’s assets which will result in a report of predicted damages. Additional factors to include available participants infrastructure data to include class, age, construction, location, wind rating, and additional information not in the public domain. Based on predicted damages, the output will be a bill of materials (BOM) to support short-term recovery operations. The extensiveness and level of detail for this BOM will depend on the replacement configuration specifications provided for each individual participant asset. Any limiting factors for the model will be applied related supply chain and resource constraints.

Klett, Mary↗

DOE OSTI2025

Accuracy-Based Annotation Quality Score (ABAQS) v1.0

Assessing genome annotation quality is crucial for downstream analyses, but current methods are inadequate for eukaryotes. We present Accuracy-Based Annotation Quality Score (ABAQS), a novel, minimal-data-driven method that comprehensively assesses annotation quality. ABAQS evaluates multiple factors, including genome completeness, gene model validity, and protein profile accuracy, outperforming other metrics like BUSCO and PSAURON. We applied ABAQS to over 2500 eukaryotic genomes and showed its robustness and effectiveness in evaluating genome annotation quality, making it a valuable tool for researchers working with genomic data. ABAQS reveals significant variation in annotation quality and highlights the importance of filtering in improving annotation quality and accuracy.

Haridas, Sajeet [Lawrence Berkeley National Labora↗

DOE OSTI2013

Transforming Epidemiology for 21st Century Medicine and Public Health

n 2012, the National Cancer Institute (NCI) engaged the scientific community to provide a vision for cancer epidemiology in the 21st century. Eight overarching thematic recommendations, with proposed corresponding actions for consideration by funding agencies, professional societies, and the research community emerged from the collective intellectual discourse. The themes are (i) extending the reach of epidemiology beyond discovery and etiologic research to include multilevel analysis, intervention evaluation, implementation, and outcomes research; (ii) transforming the practice of epidemiology by moving toward more access and sharing of protocols, data, metadata, and specimens to foster collaboration, to ensure reproducibility and replication, and accelerate translation; (iii) expanding cohort studies to collect exposure, clinical, and other information across the life course and examining multiple health-related endpoints; (iv) developing and validating reliable methods and technologies to quantify exposures and outcomes on a massive scale, and to assess concomitantly the role of multiple factors in complex diseases; (v) integrating big data science into the practice of epidemiology; (vi) expanding knowledge integration to drive research, policy, and practice; (vii) transforming training of 21st century epidemiologists to address interdisciplinary and translational research; and (viii) optimizing the use of resources and infrastructure for epidemiologic studies. These recommendations can transform cancer epidemiology and the field of epidemiology, in general, by enhancing transparency, interdisciplinary collaboration, and strategic applications of new technologies. They should lay a strong scientific foundation for accelerated translation of scientific discoveries into individual and population health benefits.

Khoury, Muin J↗

DOE OSTI2014

Development of the preterm infant gut microbiome: A research priority

The very low birth weight (VLBW) infant is at great risk for marked dysbiosis of the gut microbiome due to multiple factors, including physiological immaturity and prenatal/postnatal influences that disrupt the development of a normal gut flora. However, little is known about the developmental succession of the microbiota in preterm infants as they grow and mature. This review provides a synthesis of our understanding of the normal development of the infant gut microbiome and contrasts this with dysbiotic development in the VLBW infant. The role of human milk in normal gut microbial development is emphasized, along with the role of the gut microbiome in immune development and gastroenteric health. Current research provides evidence that the gut microbiome interacts extensively with many physiological systems and metabolic processes in the developing infant. However, to the best of our knowledge, there are currently no studies prospectively mapping the gut microbiome of VLBW infants through early childhood. This knowledge gap must be filled to inform a healthcare system that can provide for the growth, health, and development of VLBW infants. In conclusion, the study speculates about how the VLBW infants’ gut microbiome might function through host-microbe interactions to contribute to the sequelae of preterm birth, including its influence on growth, development, and general health of the infant host.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2019

Intrahepatic Cholangiocarcinoma: Socioeconomic Discrepancies, Contemporary Treatment Approaches and Survival Trends from the National Cancer Database

Objective: The aim of this study was to evaluate socioeconomic discrepancies in current treatment approaches and survival trends among patients with intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC). Methods: The 2004–2015 National Cancer Database was retrospectively analyzed for histopathologically proven ICC. Treatment predictors were evaluated using multinomial logistic regression and overall survival via multivariable Cox models. Results: Overall, 12,837 ICC patients were included. Multiple factors influenced treatment allocation, including age, education, comorbidities, cancer stage, grade, treatment center, and US state region (multivariable p < 0.05). The highest surgery rates were observed in the Middle Atlantic (28.7%) and lowest rates were observed in the Mountain States (18.4%). Decreased ICC treatment likelihood was observed for male African Americans with Medicaid insurance and those with low income (multivariable p < 0.05). Socioeconomic treatment discrepancies translated into decreased overall survival for patients of male sex (vs. female; hazard ratio [HR] 1.21, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.16–1.26, p < 0.001), with low income (< $37,999 vs. ≥ $63,000 annually; HR 1.07, 95% CI 1.01–1.14, p = 0.032), and with Medicaid insurance (vs. private insurance; HR 1.13, 95% CI 1.04–1.23, p = 0.006). Both surgical and non-surgical ICC management showed increased survival compared with no treatment, with the longest survival for surgery (5-year overall survival for surgery, 33.5%; interventional oncology, 11.8%; radiation oncology/chemotherapy, 4.4%; no treatment, 3.3%). Among non-surgically treated patients, interventional oncology yielded the longest survival versus radiation oncology/chemotherapy (HR 0.73, 95% CI 0.65–0.82, p < 0.001). Conclusions: ICC treatment allocation and outcome demonstrated a marked variation depending on socioeconomic status, demography, cancer factors, and US geography. Healthcare providers should address these discrepancies by providing surgery and interventional oncology as first-line treatment to all eligible patients, with special attention to the vulnerable populations identified in this study.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

DOE OSTI2018

Data from Increasing Ethanol Yield through Fiber Conversion in Corn Dry Grind Process

Conversion of corn fiber to ethanol in the dry grind process could increase ethanol yields, reduce downstream processing costs and improve overall process profitability. This work investigates the in-situ conversion of corn fiber into ethanol (cellulase addition during simultaneous saccharification and fermentation) during dry grind process. Addition of 30 FPU/g fiber cellulase resulted in 4.6% increase in ethanol yield compared to the conventional process. Use of excess cellulase (120 FPU/g fiber) resulted in incomplete fermentation and lower ethanol yield compared to the conventional process. Multiple factors including high concentrations of ethanol and phenolic compounds were responsible for yeast stress and incomplete fermentation in excess cellulase experiments.

Conversion↗

DOE OSTI2014

Approach for validating actinide and fission product compositions for burnup credit criticality safety analyses

This paper describes a depletion code validation approach for criticality safety analysis using burnup credit for actinide and fission product nuclides in spent nuclear fuel (SNF) compositions. The technical basis for determining the uncertainties in the calculated nuclide concentrations is comparison of calculations to available measurements obtained from destructive radiochemical assay of SNF samples. Probability distributions developed for the uncertainties in the calculated nuclide concentrations were applied to the SNF compositions of a criticality safety analysis model by the use of a Monte Carlo uncertainty sampling method to determine bias and bias uncertainty in effective neutron multiplication factor. Application of the Monte Carlo uncertainty sampling approach is demonstrated for representative criticality safety analysis models of pressurized water reactor spent fuel pool storage racks and transportation packages using burnup-dependent nuclide concentrations calculated with SCALE 6.1 and the ENDF/B-VII nuclear data. Furthermore, the validation approach and results support a recent revision of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Interim Staff Guidance 8.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Setup and verification of a SCALE/KENO platform for generic FHR benchmark calculations

The work presented in this article is preliminary to downstream analysis of a generic fluoride salt-cooled high-temperature reactor (gFHR) core performed by the University of Tennessee in collaboration with Kairos Power (KP). A Monte Carlo transport model of the publicly available gFHR equilibrium core is developed in SCALE/KENO with multigroup energy treatment. Several output quantities of interest are used to verify the simulations against a benchmark model developed by KP using the continuous energy Monte Carlo code Serpent 2. Good agreement is seen in flux and fission rate profiles with a maximum relative difference of 1.4% and 2.8% respectively. Furthermore, an effective multiplication factor bias of 44 pcm was observed between the two simulations. The fuel temperature reactivity coefficient calculated with SCALE is within uncertainty to the reference model. This verification acts as a publicly reproducible benchmark for the gFHR in SCALE/KENO. A simplified depletion model is also presented where a single fuel pebble is depleted to discharge burnup through the equilibrium core while the equilibrium core is assumed to be invariant. This method produces results that intercept the equilibrium core concentrations in every case, however, an interesting artifact of this particular depletion model is uncovered. The phenomenon is shown to be a fundamental feature of the differential rate equations and inspires questions about how this system behaves when the time evolution of the equilibrium core is considered. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2022

PWR loading pattern optimization with reinforcement learning

The core loading pattern optimization problem belongs to the class of combinatorial optimization problem and has been studied since the dawn of commercial nuclear energy industry. It is characterized by multiple objectives and constraints, with a very high number of candidate patterns, which makes it impossible to solve explicitly. Stochastic optimization methodologies including Genetic Algorithms and Simulated Annealing are used by different nuclear utilities and vendors to perform fuel cycle reload design. Nevertheless, hand-designed solutions continue to be the prevalent method in the industry. To improve the state-of-the-art core reload patterns, we aim to create a method as scalable as possible, that agrees with the designer's goal of performance and safety. To help in this task Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL), in particular Proximal Policy Optimization is leveraged. DRL has recently experienced a strong impetus from its successes applied to games, sometimes even reaching 'super-human' performances. This paper lays out the foundation of this method and proposes to study the behavior of several hyper-parameters that influence the DRL algorithm. The algorithm is highly dependent on multiple factors such as an exploration/exploitation trade-off that manifests through different parameters such as the number of loading patterns seen and the number of samples collected before a policy update, but also the shape of the objective function derived for the core design. Experimental results also demonstrate the effectiveness of the method in finding high-quality solutions from scratch within a reasonable amount of time. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Benchmark evaluation of one dimensional array of HEU moderated and reflected by Lucite

The evaluation of two HEU-Lucite experiments is presented. The critical experiments were performed using the Planet Universal Critical Assembly Machine at Los Alamos National Laboratory in 2019. In these experiments, HEU foils were interleaved with Lucite in a column stack and were moderated and reflected from the square Lucite plates. The neutron data produced were used to approximate the multiplication of each measured configuration. The evaluation of the experiments using calculational techniques is presented in the paper. A Monte-Carlo computational model to be used with MCNP6 was developed for the determination of uncertainties and the effects of various uncertainties on the multiplication factor were studied. The evaluation of the benchmark was performed for comparison of calculation results with the experimental data and validation of calculation techniques in particular the newly available thermal scattering data for the Lucite material. The sensitivity studies include parametric variations of material composition and geometry. Experimental uncertainties were low, with the overall height of the HEU/Lucite stack being the largest contributor to the overall uncertainty in k{sub eff}. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Validation of Jezebel Reactivity Coefficients and Sensitivity Analysis

Nuclear data validation is often performed today using criticality measurements. The gold standard for criticality measurements is the International Criticality Safety Benchmark Experiment Project (ICSBEP). The validation specifically focuses on the effective multiplication factor ($k_{eff}$). $K_{eff}$ is a relatively easy parameter to infer and has reduced uncertainty due to being at or above critical. However, while $k_{eff}$ is the most documented parameter and its uncertainties and sensitivities have been evaluated in great detail, it cannot be used as a standalone metric to determine inaccuracies in nuclear data (e.g., cross section data, PFNS, nu), which is based on theory, physics, and differential measurements. The Experiments Underpinned by Computational Learning for Improvements in nuclear Data (EUCLID) project aims to identify compensating errors in specific isotope nuclear data by optimally designing experiments that are, or are not sensitive to a suite of measurement parameters beyond $k_{eff}$. By identifying parameters that are sensitive to each other, oppositely sensitive, or have substantial magnitude differences in sensitivity, experiments can be designed to constrain questionable nuclear data. One sensitivity that is of particular interest to this project includes the sensitivity of reactivity coefficients. Reactivity coefficients compare reactivity, which is related to $k_{eff}$ at two different states therefore being sensitive to small changes in the system. The most common type of reactivity coefficient measurements is comparison to void for a small sample within the assembly. It is key that the sample sizes are small enough to not affect the flux of the full system. Reactivity coefficients were evaluated for many early experiments to better understand transport corrected cross sections. In fact, ICSBEP includes reactivity coefficient results as “Supplemental Measurements” in appendices for a handful of older benchmarks. One of those benchmarks is Jezebel, the bare Pu critical assembly. This paper compares new simulations of reactivity coefficients for Jezebel, and explores the sensitivity of reactivity coefficients to small changes in nuclear data.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Verification of Flux Sensitivity Estimates Using the MCNP Tally Perturbation Tool

Nuclear data is commonly used in applications such as nuclear nonproliferation, safeguards, and criticality safety. More specifically, nuclear data is used in predictive simulation codes like the Monte-Carlo N-Particle (MCNP ® ) transport code, Serpent, and similar radiation transport codes. The improvement of nuclear data enables more precise and accurate simulations, which result in higher fidelity designs and reduced operational/procedural costs. Therefore, the improvement of nuclear data is of paramount importance across the nuclear community. Nuclear data is improved and validated through integral benchmark experiments. The design of benchmark experiments is an extensive process; therefore, these experiments are often optimized on multiple characteristics, including sensitivity to the nuclear data, during the design process. Sensitivity is a measure of how much a quantity changes due to changes in independent variables such as experimental configuration. An experimental design that has a larger sensitivity to the nuclear data of interest will have a larger impact on the accuracy and precision of the validated data. Past integral benchmark experiments have primarily used the effective multiplication factor ($k_{eff}$) as the predominant measured quantity; however, experiments designed with other quantities in mind would be able to optimize on validating different areas of the nuclear data. A primary goal of the EUCLID project is to design, constrain, and reduce compensating errors in experiments focused on quantities other than $k_{eff}$ to better validate nuclear data across the board. Currently, there is a capability in MCNP to easily calculate the sensitivity of $k_{eff}$ to specific nuclear data of numerous reactions types and isotopes (KSEN card); however, the sensitivity of other quantities must be estimated in more strenuous manners. For example, the perturbation feature (PERT card) of MCNP can be used to estimate first-order sensitivities of some response in fixed source simulations. A recent announcement revealed that the first- and second-order perturbation features in previous releases of MCNP contained a bug. It was identified that particles were being scored into the wrong energy bin. The bug is in the most recent public release (MCNP6.2); however, a patch has been added to the most up to date version (MCNP6.2.2) that has not been released publicly. A direct comparison of the PERT card results for an F4 (neutron flux averaged over a cell) tally before and after the patch are shown in figure 1. All simulations used in the sensitivity estimates in this report were performed with MCNP6.2.2. This work verifies the patched MCNP perturbation tool by comparing first order sensitivities made using the PERT card to estimates made using manual perturbation of the compact ENDF (ACE) files.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Sensitivity-based Similarity Metrics for New Experiment Design Optimization

The nuclear data used in advanced reactor simulations requires validation. Data from nuclear criticality experiments can provide this validation. New nuclear criticality experiment design requires extensive knowledge and expert judgement such that the experimental design parameters are selected in such a way to keep the experiment subcritical. To aide in this experimental design process, professionals can utilize sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis relies on matching new application experiments with currently existing benchmark experiments. Currently, there is functionality in the Whisper 1.1 software package to calculate a similarity metric based on neutron multiplication factor sensitivity coefficients between a new application designed by the user and existing International Criticality Safety Benchmark Experiment Project (ICSBEP) benchmarks. The Whisper 1.1 software package is included in Monte Carlo N-Particle ® Code Version 6.21 (MCNP ® 6.2). This work is geared toward expanding this capability to new similarity metrics based on beta-effective sensitivity coefficients and reactivity coefficient sensitivity coefficients. While the investigation of these sensitivity coefficients is presented in detail in separate works at this same conference, this work will be primarily focused on studying the similarity metrics in more detail. These similarity metrics will then be incorporated into the optimization algorithms used for experiment design in EUCLID (Experiments Underpinned by Computational Learning for Improvements in nuclear Data), which is a Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) project designed to constrain nuclear data of interest, such that adjustments can be made to possible inaccuracies. A more detailed optimization can be subsequently performed by breaking down these similarity metrics by isotope, reaction, and energy.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Current Progress of the Final Design of a Subcritical Assembly at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory

During the past decade, the US Department of Energy (DOE)/National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) Nuclear Criticality Safety Program (NCSP) has been coordinating nuclear criticality safety (NCS) courses to provide training and qualification to new staff, supervisors, managers, regulators, and other professionals involved with NCS. To address the growing need for more NCS training possibilities, a subcritical assembly was designed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). The Oak Ridge Subcritical Assembly (ORSA), operated at ORNL, could be used in a new course for fissile material handlers/operators or as a backup training facility for currently existing NCSP hands-on NCS training. This paper describes some of the design steps necessary for obtaining a final ORSA design, beginning with a successful feasibility study performed in 2020. Numerous parameters within each main element of the assembly were considered, such as the reflector used, the type of fuel coating or plating used, and the number of fuel plates used. The design choices related to each parametric study described in this paper are detailed and justified at the end of each subsection. An overview of the current final design characteristics of ORSA and the experiments’ possibilities is also provided. ORSA will be built with fuel plates from legacy Aerojet General Nucleonics (AGN)-201M research reactors currently stored at the Y-12 National Security Complex (Y-12). The cylindrical fuel plates comprise UO 2 particles embedded in polyethylene and have a nominal enrichment of 19.5 ± 0.5 wt % 235 U. The basis for the final design was the feasibility study from 2020. In the feasibility study, ORSA achieved k eff = 0.95, corresponding to a multiplication factor of 20, with approximately 620 g of 235 U (four 4 cm plates, three 2 cm plates, and two 1 cm plates) and an 8.5 cm thick graphite reflector radially and on top of the assembly. The bottom of the assembly has a graphite thickness of 5 cm, and the chosen graphite density was 2.3 g/cm 3 . All design calculations were performed using SCALE 6.2.4 KENO-VI and with the ENDF/B VII.1 Continuous Energy cross-section library.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Preliminary Design of Critical Experiments Involving Commercially Available B 4 C Neutron Absorber Plates with Low-Enriched UO 2 Fuel

The International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project (ICSBEP) is an initiative to provide high-quality benchmark data in a standardized format for criticality safety analysts to use to validate calculational tools and nuclear data. In the last released 2022 version, the ICSBEP handbook contains over 5,000 critical experiment descriptions, results, and associated models. This paper describes the critical configurations proposed and calculations performed as part of the conceptual design phase of Integral Experiment Request (IER) 554 (IER-554). The goal of IER-554 is to add to the benchmark experiments available to the criticality safety community by designing critical experiments that can analyze how adding commercially available Boralcan plates to an assembly of low-enriched UO2 fuel rods affects the effective neutron multiplication factor (k eff ). Boralcan, a neutron absorber product developed by Rio Tinto, is made of B4C in an Al 1100 matrix and is commonly used for criticality suppression in fuel storage pools. In the current version of the ICSBEP handbook, only a few dated critical experiments involve B4C materials, and none involve Boralcan in a thin plate shape. The experiments designed as part of IER-554 are intended to be performed at the Sandia Pulsed Reactor Facility/Critical Experiments (SPRF/CX) apparatus at Sandia National Laboratories. SPRF/CX is a well-characterized assembly considered trustworthy by the benchmarking community because of the numerous high-quality evaluations with very low experimental uncertainties included in the ICSBEP handbook. Figure 1 illustrates the assembly for a particular configuration from LCT-078, one of the published benchmarks in the ICSBEP handbook. The experiments will be moderated and reflected by light water at ambient atmospheric pressure. Before the plates are inserted in the critical assembly, they will be characterized with x-ray computed tomography (XCT) to identify the sizes and distribution of the B 4 C powder particles inside the plates. The preliminary design calculations were performed with SCALE 6.3.0 using the KENO V.a sequence for the criticality calculations, the CE-TSUNAMI-3D sequence for the sensitivity and uncertainty studies, and the ENDF/B-VII.1 Continuous Energy cross section library. All the calculation results presented have 10 pcm statistical uncertainties. A set of critical experiments with Boralcan plates could increase the confidence of the criticality safety community in its modeling methods when using this type of neutron absorber material. Experiments would also help validate k eff calculations, and the industry could use these validations to change the B loading credit limits from the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission standard review plan for dry cask storage of spent nuclear fuel. This paper summarizes only part of the analysis documented in the preliminary design report.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2014

Complex Spatiotemporal Responses of Global Terrestrial Primary Production to Climate Change and Increasing Atmospheric CO2 in the 21st Century

Quantitative information on the response of global terrestrial net primary production (NPP) to climate change and increasing atmospheric CO2 is essential for climate change adaptation and mitigation in the 21st century. Using a process-based ecosystem model (the Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model, DLEM), we quantified the magnitude and spatiotemporal variations of contemporary (2000s) global NPP, and projected its potential responses to climate and CO2 changes in the 21st century under the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B1 of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). We estimated a global terrestrial NPP of 54.6 (52.8–56.4) PgC yr21 as a result of multiple factors during 2000–2009. Climate change would either reduce global NPP (4.6%) under the A2 scenario or slightly enhance NPP (2.2%) under the B1 scenario during 2010–2099. In response to climate change, global NPP would first increase until surface air temperature increases by 1.5uC (until the 2030s) and then level-off or decline after it increases by more than 1.5uC (after the 2030s). This result supports the Copenhagen Accord Acknowledgement, which states that staying below 2uC may not be sufficient and the need to potentially aim for staying below 1.5uC. The CO2 fertilization effect would result in a 12%–13.9% increase in global NPP during the 21st century. The relative CO2 fertilization effect, i.e. change in NPP on per CO2 (ppm) bases, is projected to first increase quickly then level off in the 2070s and even decline by the end of the 2080s, possibly due to CO2 saturation and nutrient limitation. Terrestrial NPP responses to climate change and elevated atmospheric CO2 largely varied among biomes, with the largest increases in the tundra and boreal needleleaf deciduous forest. Compared to the low emission scenario (B1), the high emission scenario (A2) would lead to larger spatiotemporal variations in NPP, and more dramatic and counteracting impacts from climate and increasing atmospheric CO2.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗