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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 343 records · Page 19

A Comparison of Two Balance Calibration Model Building Methods

Simulated strain-gage balance calibration data is used to compare the accuracy of two balance calibration model building methods for different noise environments and calibration experiment designs. The first building method obtains a math model for the analysis of balance calibration data after applying a candidate math model search algorithm to the calibration data set. The second building method uses stepwise regression analysis in order to construct a model for the analysis. Four balance calibration data sets were simulated in order to compare the accuracy of the two math model building methods. The simulated data sets were prepared using the traditional One Factor At a Time (OFAT) technique and the Modern Design of Experiments (MDOE) approach. Random and systematic errors were introduced in the simulated calibration data sets in order to study their influence on the math model building methods. Residuals of the fitted calibration responses and other statistical metrics were compared in order to evaluate the calibration models developed with different combinations of noise environment, experiment design, and model building method. Overall, predicted math models and residuals of both math model building methods show very good agreement. Significant differences in model quality were attributable to noise environment, experiment design, and their interaction. Generally, the addition of systematic error significantly degraded the quality of calibration models developed from OFAT data by either method, but MDOE experiment designs were more robust with respect to the introduction of a systematic component of the unexplained variance.

DeLoach, Richard↗

Reusable Rocket Engine Operability Modeling and Analysis

This paper describes the methodology, model, input data, and analysis results of a reusable launch vehicle engine operability study conducted with the goal of supporting design from an operations perspective. Paralleling performance analyses in schedule and method, this requires the use of metrics in a validated operations model useful for design, sensitivity, and trade studies. Operations analysis in this view is one of several design functions. An operations concept was developed given an engine concept and the predicted operations and maintenance processes incorporated into simulation models. Historical operations data at a level of detail suitable to model objectives were collected, analyzed, and formatted for use with the models, the simulations were run, and results collected and presented. The input data used included scheduled and unscheduled timeline and resource information collected into a Space Transportation System (STS) Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) historical launch operations database. Results reflect upon the importance not only of reliable hardware but upon operations and corrective maintenance process improvements.

Christenson, R. L.↗

A SCR Model Calibration Approach with Spatially Resolved Measurements and NH 3 Storage Distributions

The selective catalytic reduction (SCR) is a technology used for reducing NO x emissions in the heavy-duty diesel (HDD) engine exhaust. In this study, the spatially resolved capillary inlet infrared spectroscopy (Spaci-IR) technique was used to study the gas concentration and NH 3 storage distributions in a SCR catalyst, and to provide data for developing a SCR model to analyze the axial gaseous concentration and axial distributions of NH 3 storage. A two-site SCR model is described for simulating the reaction mechanisms. The model equations and a calculation method was developed using the Spaci-IR measurements to determine the NH 3 storage capacity and the relationships between certain kinetic parameters of the model. Moreover, a calibration approach was then applied for tuning the kinetic parameters using the spatial gaseous measurements and calculated NH3 storage as a function of axial position instead of inlet and outlet gaseous concentrations of NO, NO 2 , and NH 3 . The equations and the approach for determining the NH 3 storage capacity of the catalyst and a method of dividing the NH 3 storage capacity between the two storage sites are presented. It was determined that the kinetic parameters of the adsorption and desorption reactions have to follow certain relationships for the model to simulate the experimental data. Finally, the modeling results served as a basis for developing full model calibrations to SCR lab reactor and engine data and state estimator development as described in the references (Song et al. 2013a, b; Surenahalli et al. 2013).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Simulation process and data flow for a large system dynamics model

This paper documents the workflow and supporting technologies that a large system dynamics model, the biomass scenario model, employs to streamline the data preparation, simulation, quality control, and analysis process at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. The workflow centers on automation of routine aspects of the flow of data between data stores, simulations, and visualizations. It enforces quality checks on data, reproducibility of computations, and traceability of results, while maintaining complete archives of modeling and analysis artifacts. The resulting frictionless simulation/analysis environment supports large-scale sensitivity analysis, interactive creation of ensembles of simulations, and rapid visualization-based exploration of simulation results.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Towards Improved Real-Time Observability of Behind-Meter PhotoVoltaic Systems: A Data-Driven Approach

The stochasticity in energy supply introduced by increased PV penetration in grid distribution systems can lead to frequent and sudden supply-demand imbalances, thereby causing voltage and frequency fluctuations. Enhanced observability, in real-time, of grid attributes such as real and reactive power flows, power injections/consumption and voltages is becoming increasingly essential to ensure smooth grid operation under these new large-scale PV integration scenarios. Two significant challenges prevent grid operators from achieving this objective: 1) Computational complexity of quasi-static timeseries simulations, and 2) Partial observability of behind-meter grid assets. In this work, we take a step towards this objective by enhancing the observability of smart inverter equipped PV systems located behind AMI meters. Smart inverters convert the DC output of PV systems into real and reactive power, the ratio of which is governed by a power factor setting. This in turn is governed by the real-time voltage at its terminal, as per a pre-set volt/var curve. While it is possible to infer the power factor setting - thereby, real and reactive power injection of the PV system - at each time interval by quasi-static time series simulations, such methods are not scalable to large grid sizes. We propose to reduce the reliance on simulations by developing a deep neural network based data-driven model which predicts the time dependent power factors of the PV systems in the grid. The model uses a small amount of simulated data to learn the dependence of power factor on 1) load and apparent PV power injection (root mean square of real and reactive power) data, and 2) AMI net-load data (for BTM PV assets). Our results show that our model can predict power factors with mean absolute error of less than 6.2% under full observability scenario and under 8.6% under the partial observability scenario. Thus, our data-driven model can reduce the amount of simulations required to compute real and reactive injections from PV systems in the distribution system with or without complete information.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Data-Driven Load Diversity and Variability Modeling for Quasi-Static Time-Series Simulation on Distribution Feeders

This paper presents a data-driven load modeling methodology for distribution system quasi-static time-series (QSTS) simulation considering both diversity and variability characteristics of distribution loads. Based on our previous work in [1]-[2], a variability library and diversity library have been established based on the realistic high-resolution data collected from actual utility feeders. Given the load profile for the start-of-circuit load of a feeder, the loads on the feeder nodes can be modeled with both diversity and variability instead of being directly scaled from the substation load profile according to the distribution allocation factors. With diversified load models, the load-induced impact on the feeder operation characteristics, such as voltage ramp and regulator operations, can be better considered in QSTS simulation. The proposed modeling methodology has been tested on both the IEEE 123-bus feeder and an actual utility feeder model, and the simulation results have demonstrated the merits of deploying the proposed load modeling methodology.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Machine Learning Assisted Safety Modeling and Analysis of Advanced Reactors

With the advances in computational power and numerical methods, analysts can now rely on first-principle simulations to predict ultra-fine details in a variety of applications. Advances in machine learning (ML) have produced algorithms that can now learn high-level abstractions via hierarchical models. This project aims to leverage advances in ML techniques and the available high-resolution simulation data to develop a novel modeling and simulation (M\&S) methodology for reactor safety analysis. While application-agnostic ML techniques are available, complex physics constraints need to be incorporated into ML techniques to build ML-based closures for computationally efficient predictive simulations. This project intends to develop a physics-guided data-driven multi-scale methodology for M\&S of advanced reactors. The project focuses on thermal fluid (T/F) phenomena, which play major roles in advanced reactor safety. Specifically, we propose a data-driven coarse-mesh turbulence model based on local flow features for the transient analysis of thermal mixing and stratification in a sodium-cooled fast reactor (SFR). The model has a coarse-mesh setup to ensure computational efficiency, while it is trained by fine-mesh computational fluid dynamics (CFD) data with Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) turbulence model to ensure accuracy. Three different neural networks are developed and tested for loss-of-flow transients in the hot pool of SFR, i.e. the densely connected convolutional neural network (DCNN), long-short-term-memory network based on proper orthogonal decomposition (POD-LSTM), and the DCNN informed by LSTM (DCNN-LSTM). The performances of these three neural networks are evaluated based on baseline models. The DCNN-LSTM model has been chosen for further hyperparameter optimization. Furthermore, based on a simplified two-dimensional case, uncertainty quantification (UQ) of the developed ML-based closure are investigated with three methods, i.e. Monte Carlo dropout, deep ensemble, and Bayesian neural network. The developed ML-based turbulent viscosity closure relation based on deep ensemble is then integrated into the system analysis module SAM and serves as a term in the conservation equations. Such a SAM-ML based procedure guarantees that the obtained results are consistent with the physical constraints of the thermal-fluid system. The SAM-ML simulation on the same loss-of-flow transient showed comparable accuracy with the CFD simulation but with a much coarser mesh setup. Last but not least, the ML-based closure improvement with the support of higher-fidelity data from large eddy simulation (LES) is discussed. As a first step towards this direction, a baseline LES simulation is performed to obtain comparable data with RANS results. Based on the early results, future investigation on further improving the ML-based closure is discussed. We believe the developed approach that combines scientific machine learning with nuclear system analysis code can benefit the advanced reactor community as more accurate safety analyses will better characterize reactor safety margins and reduce licensing efforts.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

CME Flux Rope and Shock Identifications and Locations: Comparison of White Light Data, Graduated Cylindrical Shell Model, and MHD Simulations

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are major transient phenomena in the solar corona that are observed with ground-based and spacecraft-based coronagraphs in white light or with in situ measurements by spacecraft. CMEs transport mass and momentum and often drive shocks. In order to derive the CME and shock trajectories with high precision, we apply the graduated cylindrical shell (GCS) model to fit a flux rope to the CME directed toward STEREO A after about 19:00 UT on 29 November 2013 and check the quality of the heliocentric distance-time evaluations by carrying out a three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulation of the same CME with the Block Adaptive Tree Solar-Wind Roe Upwind Scheme (BATS-R-US) code. Heliocentric distances of the CME and shock leading edges are determined from the simulated white light images and magnetic field strength data. We find very good agreement between the predicted and observed heliocentric distances, showing that the GCS model and the BATS-R-US simulation approach work very well and are consistent. In order to assess the validity of CME and shock identification criteria in coronagraph images, we also compute synthetic white light images of the CME and shock. We find that the outer edge of a cloud-like illuminated area in the observed and predicted images in fact coincides with the leading edge of the CME flux rope and that the outer edge of a faint illuminated band in front of the CME leading edge coincides with the CME-driven shock front.

Schmidt, J. M.↗

Simulation of complex glazing products; from optical data measurements to model based predictive controls

Complex glazing systems such as venetian blinds, fritted glass and woven shades require more detailed optical and thermal input data for their components than specular non light-redirecting glazing systems. Various methods for measuring these data sets are described in this paper. These data sets are used in multiple simulation tools to model the thermal and optical properties of complex glazing systems. The output from these tools can be used to generate simplified rating values or as an input to other simulation tools such as whole building annual energy programs, or lighting analysis tools. I also describe some of the challenges of creating a rating system for these products and which factors affect this rating. A potential future direction of simulation and building operations is model based predictive controls, where detailed computer models are run in real-time, receiving data for an actual building and providing control input to building elements such as shades.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Advancing Sea Ice Predictability in E3SM with Machine Learning

Focal area(s): To improve predictions of sea ice in E3SM we propose to develop a hierarchy of data-driven models using observational and simulation data to investigate the most important Earth system drivers of sea ice variability and loss, develop surrogates that build on the reduced parameter space of important drivers, and, where appropriate, couple machine learning models with standard PDE models to capture important physical behavior at different scales. This work falls under Focal Area 2. Predictive modeling through the use of AI techniques.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Data Science and Urban Air Mobility: Challenges and Opportunities

Aviation is broadly a combination of aircraft, airspace and airports. The data science life cycle comprises of five steps - capture, maintain, process, analyze and communicate. The presentation introduces the legacy of conventional aviation research in the context of the data science life cycle to motivate the challenges with Urban Air Mobility, a field that is quite nascent. A summary of recent research will be presented to highlight the innovative ways to address the challenges. Examples provided will include the generation of synthetic data, encounter models from simulations, and leveraging novel and diverse data sets from traditional transportation and non-aviation sources, to analyze problems of operation in urban airspace. Finally, opportunities will be identified for further exploration, niche development and filling the gaps in the field of data science for UAM.

Urban Air Mobility↗

Data Science and Urban Air Mobility: Challenges and Opportunities

Aviation is broadly a combination of aircraft, airspace and airports. The data science life cycle comprises of five steps - capture, maintain, process, analyze and communicate. The presentation introduces the legacy of conventional aviation research in the context of the data science life cycle to motivate the challenges with Urban Air Mobility, a field that is quite nascent. A summary of recent research will be presented to highlight the innovative ways to address the challenges. Examples provided will include the generation of synthetic data, encounter models from simulations, and leveraging novel and diverse data sets from traditional transportation and non-aviation sources, to analyze problems of operation in urban airspace. Finally, opportunities will be identified for further exploration, niche development and filling the gaps in the field of data science for UAM.

Urban Air Mobility↗

Data Science Challenges for Urban Air Mobility

Aviation is a combination of aircraft, airspace and airports. The data science life cycle comprises of five steps - capture, maintain, process, analyze and communicate. The presentation introduces the legacy of conventional aviation research in the context of the data science life cycle to motivate the challenges with Urban Air Mobility, a field that is quite nascent. A summary of recent research will be presented to highlight the innovative ways to address the challenges. Examples provided will include the generation of synthetic data, encounter models from simulations, and leveraging novel and diverse data sets from traditional transportation and non-aviation sources, to analyze problems of operation in urban airspace. Finally, opportunities will be identified for further exploration, niche development and filling the gaps in the field of data science for UAM.

Data Science↗

Data Science Challenges for Urban Air Mobility

Aviation is a combination of aircraft, airspace and airports. The data science life cycle comprises of five steps - capture, maintain, process, analyze and communicate. The presentation introduces the legacy of conventional aviation research in the context of the data science life cycle to motivate the challenges with Urban Air Mobility, a field that is quite nascent. A summary of recent research will be presented to highlight the innovative ways to address the challenges. Examples provided will include the generation of synthetic data, encounter models from simulations, and leveraging novel and diverse data sets from traditional transportation and non-aviation sources, to analyze problems of operation in urban airspace. Finally, opportunities will be identified for further exploration, niche development and filling the gaps in the field of data science for UAM.

Data Science↗

Appending High-Resolution Elevation Data to GPS Speed Traces for Vehicle Energy Modeling and Simulation

Accurate and reliable global positioning system (GPS)-based vehicle use data are highly valuable for many transportation, analysis, and automotive considerations. Model-based design, real-world fuel economy analysis, and the growing field of autonomous and connected technologies (including predictive powertrain control and self-driving cars) all have a vested interest in high-fidelity estimation of powertrain loads and vehicle usage profiles. Unfortunately, road grade can be a difficult property to extract from GPS data with consistency. In this report, we present a methodology for appending high-resolution elevation data to GPS speed traces via a static digital elevation model. Anomalous data points in the digital elevation model are addressed during a filtration/smoothing routine, resulting in an elevation profile that can be used to calculate road grade. This process is evaluated against a large, commercially available height/slope dataset from the Navteq/Nokia/HERE Advanced Driver Assistance Systems product. Results will show good agreement with the Advanced Driver Assistance Systems data in the ability to estimate road grade between any two consecutive points in the contiguous United States.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

A multiscale recurrent neural network model for predicting energy production from geothermal reservoirs

Optimization of energy production from geothermal reservoirs requires reliable prediction of energy production performance under alternative operation and development scenarios. Traditionally, reservoir simulation models are used for the evaluation and screening of alternative production and development plans. However, simulation models require extensive data collection and modeling efforts and are time-consuming to build, run, and update. Data-driven predictive models, on the other hand, can serve as efficient prediction tools that can be used for decision support and management of daily operations and surveillance activities. Data-driven models become particularly attractive when a reservoir simulation model for a field does not exist and/or is difficult to build. Machine learning (ML)-based data-driven models that have recently become popular in several fields exploit statistical patterns and relations in training data to generate predictions. As such, they tend to perform better in interpolation problems (that is, prediction within the training data range) than when they are used to extrapolate beyond the training data. Production data from geothermal reservoirs tend to exhibit short-term variabilities as well as long-term trends, such as monotonically declining production temperatures. Capturing both short-term features and long-term trends with ML-based models is not trivial. We evaluate the use of recurrent neural networks (RNN) for the prediction of energy production from geothermal reservoirs. RNN is a class of ML architectures that are used to represent and predict sequential/dynamic data. Thus, it can be challenging to apply RNN to problems where long-term trends must be captured and extrapolation beyond the training data range is needed. We introduce the multiscale RNN architecture to extend the application of RNN to detect and predict both short-term variabilities and long-term trends in geothermal data. The developed architecture consists of a long-term component to only capture low-frequency data patterns, and a short-term component to detect features with higher frequency and more nonlinearity. The final prediction is obtained by combining the long-term and short-term predictions. Both synthetic and field data are used to evaluate the presented multiscale RNN model. The prediction performance of the multiscale RNN is compared against those obtained from the regular RNN and the autoregressive (AR) model. The results suggest that the multiscale architecture improves the long-term prediction performance of the regular RNN and enhances its robustness against noise.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

ARM data-oriented metrics and diagnostics package for climate model evaluation (ARM-DIAGS-V3) version 3

A Python-based metrics and diagnostics package is currently being developed by the ARM Infrastructure Team at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory to facilitate the use of long-term high frequency measurements from the ARM program in evaluating the regional climate simulation of clouds, radiation, precipitation, and aerosols. This metrics and diagnostics package computes climatological means of targeted climate model simulation and generates tables and plots for comparing the model simulation with ARM observational data. The CMIP model data sets are also included in the package to enable model inter-comparison as demonstrated in Zhang et al. (2018) and Zhang et al. (2020). The mean of the CMIP model can be served as a reference for individual models. Basic performance metrics are computed to measure the accuracy of mean state and variability of climate models. The evaluated physical quantities include cloud fraction, temperature, relative humidity, cloud liquid water path, total column water vapor, precipitation, sensible and latent heat fluxes, aerosol optical depth, and radiative fluxes, with plan to extend to more fields, such as the evaluation of model simulated aerosol physicochemical properties and cloud microphysics properties. Process-oriented diagnostics focusing on aerosol, cloud, and precipitation-related phenomena are also being developed for the evaluation and development of specific model physical parameterizations. In addition to the Southern Great Plains (SGP), North Slope of Alaska (NSA) and Tropical Western Pacific (TWP) atmospheric observatories in the ARMDIAGS version 2.0, the version 3.0 package have extended to the data collected at the ARM Eastern North Atlantic (ENA) atmospheric observatory and the Observation and Modeling of the Green Ocean Amazon (GOAMAZON) field campaign. The metrics and diagnostics package are currently built upon standard Python libraries and additional Python packages developed by DOE (CDAT). The ARM metrics and diagnostic package is available publicly with the hope that it can serve as an easy entry point for climate modelers to compare their models with ARM data. In this report, we first provide an overview of major metrics in section 2. The input data, which constitutes the core content of the metrics and diagnostics package, is summarized in section 3. A user's guide documenting the workflow/structure of the version 3.0 codes and including step-by-step instruction for running the package is described in section 4.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗