A Sample/Jitter Monte Carlo Technique for Main Parachute Loads Predictions
Models for Orion parachute performance are based on reconstructions of the Capsule Parachute Assembly System (CPAS) drop test campaign and were documented in the CPAS “Model Memo.” Experience with similar Commercial Crew Program (CCP) parachute systems resulted in some updates to the Orion models in preparation for Artemis missions. The reefing cutter dispersion model for the drogues and mains had been overly-conservative by producing wide timing differences within clusters. A higher-fidelity timing model was generated by separating out in-lot variation and temperature effects. The main parachute inflation model had accounted for some correlations between parameters using complicated 2-D geometric bounding, but the results tended to exaggerate individual peak loads from fast (leading) inflations and under-emphasize actual lagging experience. Several flight tests were reconstructed again with an emphasis on matching peak load magnitudes using a search algorithm. A simpler method for generating inflation parameters uses the 3-D correlated reconstructed “samples” with some random “jitter” applied. Dispersed Monte Carlo inputs are then checked against flight test data to evaluate whether they represent reality.