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NASA NTRS2017

Data Descriptor: A Land Data Assimilation System for Sub-Saharan Africa Food and Water Security Applications

Seasonal agricultural drought monitoring systems, which rely on satellite remote sensing and land surface models (LSMs), are important for disaster risk reduction and famine early warning. These systems require the best available weather inputs, as well as a long-term historical record to contextualize current observations. This article introduces the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) Land Data Assimilation System (FLDAS), a custom instance of the NASA Land Information System (LIS) framework. The FLDAS is routinely used to produce multi-model and multi-forcing estimates of hydro-climate states and fluxes over semi-arid, food insecure regions of Africa. These modeled data and derived products, like soil moisture percentiles and water availability, were designed and are currently used to complement FEWSNETs operational remotely sensed rainfall, evapotranspiration, and vegetation observations. The 30+ years of monthly outputs from the FLDAS simulations are publicly available from the NASA Goddard Earth Science Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC) and recommended for use in hydroclimate studies, early warning applications, and by agro-meteorological scientists in Eastern, Southern, and Western Africa.

albedo↗
NASA NTRS2017

Lightning NOx Estimates from Space-Based Lightning Imagers

The intense heating of air by a lightning channel, and subsequent rapid cooling, leads to the production of lightning nitrogen oxides (NOx = NO + NO2) as discussed in Chameides [1979]. In turn, the lightning nitrogen oxides (or "LNOx" for brevity) indirectly influences the Earth's climate because the LNOx molecules are important in controlling the concentration of ozone (O3) and hydroxyl radicals (OH) in the atmosphere. Climate is most sensitive to O3 in the upper troposphere, and LNOx is the most important source of NOx in the upper troposphere at tropical and subtropical latitudes; hence, lightning is a useful parameter to monitor for climate assessments. The National Climate Assessment (NCA) program was created in response to the Congressionally-mandated Global Change Research Act (GCRA) of 1990. Thirteen US government organizations participate in the NCA program which examines the effects of global change on the natural environment, human health and welfare, energy production and use, land and water resources, human social systems, transportation, agriculture, and biological diversity. The NCA focuses on natural and human-induced trends in global change, and projects major trends 25 to 100 years out. In support of the NCA, the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) continues to assess lightning-climate inter-relationships. This activity applies a variety of NASA assets to monitor in detail the changes in both the characteristics of ground- and space- based lightning observations as they pertain to changes in climate. In particular, changes in lightning characteristics over the conterminous US (CONUS) continue to be examined by this author using data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Lightning Imaging Sensor. In this study, preliminary estimates of LNOx trends derived from TRMM/LIS lightning optical energy observations in the 17 yr period 1998-2014 are provided. This represents an important first step in testing the ability to make remote retrievals of LNOx from a satellite-based lightning sensor. As is shown, the methodology can also be directly applied to more recently launched lightning mappers, such as the Geostationary Lightning Mapper, and the International Space Station LIS.

Koshak, William J.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Towards the Development of a Global, Satellite-Based, Terrestrial Snow Mission Planning Tool

A global, satellite-based, terrestrial snow mission planning tool is proposed to help inform experimental mission design with relevance to snow depth and snow water equivalent (SWE). The idea leverages the capabilities of NASA's Land Information System (LIS) and the Tradespace Analysis Tool for Constellations (TAT-C) to harness the information content of Earth science mission data across a suite of hypothetical sensor designs, orbital configurations, data assimilation algorithms, and optimization and uncertainty techniques, including cost estimates and risk assessments of each hypothetical permutation. One objective of the proposed observing system simulation experiment (OSSE) is to assess the complementary or perhaps contradictory information content derived from the simultaneous collection of passive microwave (radiometer), active microwave (radar), and LIDAR observations from space-based platforms. The integrated system will enable a true end-to-end OSSE that can help quantify the value of observations based on their utility towards both scientific research and applications as well as to better guide future mission design. Science and mission planning questions addressed as part of this concept include: What observational records are needed (in space and time) to maximize terrestrial snow experimental utility? How might observations be coordinated (in space and time) to maximize this utility? What is the additional utility associated with an additional observation? How can future mission costs be minimized while ensuring Science requirements are fulfilled?

Mission Desig↗
NASA NTRS2009

Digital Beamforming Scatterometer

This paper discusses scatterometer measurements collected with multi-mode Digital Beamforming Synthetic Aperture Radar (DBSAR) during the SMAP-VEX 2008 campaign. The 2008 SMAP Validation Experiment was conducted to address a number of specific questions related to the soil moisture retrieval algorithms. SMAP-VEX 2008 consisted on a series of aircraft-based.flights conducted on the Eastern Shore of Maryland and Delaware in the fall of 2008. Several other instruments participated in the campaign including the Passive Active L-Band System (PALS), the Marshall Airborne Polarimetric Imaging Radiometer (MAPIR), and the Global Positioning System Reflectometer (GPSR). This campaign was the first SMAP Validation Experiment. DBSAR is a multimode radar system developed at NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center that combines state-of-the-art radar technologies, on-board processing, and advances in signal processing techniques in order to enable new remote sensing capabilities applicable to Earth science and planetary applications [l]. The instrument can be configured to operate in scatterometer, Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR), or altimeter mode. The system builds upon the L-band Imaging Scatterometer (LIS) developed as part of the RadSTAR program. The radar is a phased array system designed to fly on the NASA P3 aircraft. The instrument consists of a programmable waveform generator, eight transmit/receive (T/R) channels, a microstrip antenna, and a reconfigurable data acquisition and processor system. Each transmit channel incorporates a digital attenuator, and digital phase shifter that enables amplitude and phase modulation on transmit. The attenuators, phase shifters, and calibration switches are digitally controlled by the radar control card (RCC) on a pulse by pulse basis. The antenna is a corporate fed microstrip patch-array centered at 1.26 GHz with a 20 MHz bandwidth. Although only one feed is used with the present configuration, a provision was made for separate corporate feeds for vertical and horizontal polarization. System upgrades to dual polarization are currently under way. The DBSAR processor is a reconfigurable data acquisition and processor system capable of real-time, high-speed data processing. DBSAR uses an FPGA-based architecture to implement digitally down-conversion, in-phase and quadrature (I/Q) demodulation, and subsequent radar specific algorithms. The core of the processor board consists of an analog-to-digital (AID) section, three Altera Stratix field programmable gate arrays (FPGAs), an ARM microcontroller, several memory devices, and an Ethernet interface. The processor also interfaces with a navigation board consisting of a GPS and a MEMS gyro. The processor has been configured to operate in scatterometer, Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR), and altimeter modes. All the modes are based on digital beamforming which is a digital process that generates the far-field beam patterns at various scan angles from voltages sampled in the antenna array. This technique allows steering the received beam and controlling its beam-width and side-lobe. Several beamforming techniques can be implemented each characterized by unique strengths and weaknesses, and each applicable to different measurement scenarios. In Scatterometer mode, the radar is capable to.generate a wide beam or scan a narrow beam on transmit, and to steer the received beam on processing while controlling its beamwidth and side-lobe level. Table I lists some important radar characteristics

Rincon, Rafael F.↗
NASA NTRS2018

The Deep Space Gateway Lightning Mapper (DLM) - Monitoring Global Change and Thunderstorm Processes Through Observations of Earth's High-Latitude Lightning from Cis-Lunar Orbit

Function: Monitor global change and thunderstorm processes through observations of Earth's high-latitude lightning. This instrument will combine long-lived sampling of individual thunderstorms with long-term observations of lightning at high latitudes: How is global change affecting thunderstorm patterns; How do high-latitude thunderstorms differ from low-latitude? Why is the Gateway the optimal facility for this instrument / research: Expected DSG (Deep Space Gateway) orbits will provide nearly continuous viewing of the Earth's high latitudes (50 degrees latitude and poleward); These regions are not well covered by existing lightning mappers (e.g., Lightning Imaging Sensor / LIS, or Geostationary Lightning Mapper / GLM); Polar, Molniya, Tundra, etc. Earth orbits have significant drawbacks related to continuous coverage and/or stable FOVs (Fields of View).

Climate↗
NASA NTRS2017

The Earth Observing System (EOS)

The Earth Observing System is a US National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) program consisting of a science segment, a data system, and a space segment made up of a series of polar-orbiting and mid-inclination satellites for long-term monitoring of the Earth as an integrated system, including observations of the land surface, biosphere, atmosphere, cryosphere, and oceans. Initially conceived in the mid-late 1980s, it was implemented as a series of large "flagship" missions and smaller focused satellites, often in partnership with instruments and sometimes spacecraft from other nations. In 1984 NASA formed several instrument panels to develop concepts for “facility instruments” that would provide comprehensive support to the scientific and applications’ communities, each with a supporting science team competitively selected via peer-review. An Announcement of Opportunity was released in 1988 and proposals were solicited for three types of proposals: (i) instrument investigations that would include the provision of instrumentation for flight on a polar platform, including non-Earth science payloads requiring polar orbits (PI instruments), (ii) research facility instrument team member and team leader investigations for facility instruments, and (iii) interdisciplinary science investigations to provide data analysis and modeling, preparing to use data acquired from the space platforms. The initial selections made in 1989 included support for 24 instrument investigations, 6 research facility instrument investigations, and 28 interdisciplinary investigations. Although considerable changes were made over the years in the structure and orbital configuration of the various instruments and platforms, a total of 10 different missions were eventually flown, as shown in Fig. 1. These included three multiinstrument flagship platforms known as Terra (launched in 1999), Aqua (launched in 2002), and Aura (launched in 2004), where the Terra mission emphasis was primarily on land processes, Aqua on the hydrological cycle, and Aura on atmospheric chemistry. In addition to these flagship missions the EOS missions included Landsat 7 (land cover classification and change), QuikScat (wind speed and direction over the oceans), Jason-1 (ocean surface topography and sea level), ACRIMSAT (total solar irradiance (TSI)), SAGE III (stratospheric aerosol and ozone levels), ICESat (ice, cloud, and land elevation), and SORCE (Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment; total and spectral solar irradiance). In addition EOS supported CERES (an Earth radiation budget sensor) and LIS (a lightning sensor), that flew as part of the NASA/JAXA Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (1997), and SeaWinds (wind speed and direction), that flew as part of the short-lived ADEOS II (Midori II, 2002) mission of JAXA (Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency). The EOS contributions are too numerous to present in detail in this article, but can be viewed for convenience as a means of obtaining global measurements (with appropriate characteristics) of the 24 variables and variable groups listed in Table 1. This table was created by the EOS community in the late 1990s as a way to succinctly indicate which instruments on the various EOS platforms were expected to contribute to each of the specified variables in primary (bold), secondary (bold italics), or contributing (roman) roles. All of the science data products produced by these space missions are available without charge throughout the world, and are thus highly valued for their many contributions to applications such as air quality, fires, land cover change, and the state of the oceans, as well as for science and monitoring of the state of the Earth system and its changes over time. These and other international satellites have played a crucial role in understanding and documenting global change, including (i) global surface temperature and atmospheric temperature and water vapor profiles, (ii) glacial retreat, (iii) sea ice extent and change, (iv) solar radiation into and out of the Earth-atmosphere system, (v) atmospheric aerosol and cloud properties, (vi) sources and sinks of

ICESat↗
NASA NTRS2018

Synergistic and Collaborative Development Strategies for FV3 Powered Next Generation Unified Global Modeling System

The GFDL (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, NOAA - National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) Finite-­Volume Cubed-Sphere Dynamical Core (FV3) is a scalable and flexible dynamical core capable of both hydrostatic and non-hydrostatic atmospheric simulations. FV3 has been chosen as the dynamical core for the Next Generation Global Prediction System project (NGGPS), designed to upgrade the current NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction, NOAA) operational Global Forecast System (GFS) to run as a unified, fully-coupled system in NOAA's Environmental Modeling System infrastructure. FV3 dynamic core has a long history of serving as the main engine for global atmospheric models at various Government and Academic Research Laboratories including NOAA: GFDL Climate Modeling Suite (AM4 (Atmosphere Modeling 4), CM4 (Climate Model 4) ESM4 (Earth System Model 4), Hiram (HIgh Resolution Atmospheric Model)); NASA: GMAO (Global Modeling and Assimilation Office) Goddard Earth Observing System Model (GEOS); and NCAR (National Center for Atmospheric Research) Community Earth System Model (CESM). The three primary stakeholders in FV3 (GFDL, GMAO, EMC (Environmental Modeling Center - NOAA)) have embarked on synergistic and collaborative strategies with focus on the advancement of non-hydrostratic dynamic core, physics, chemistry, and data assimilation efforts, leveraging collective strengths of each of the partnering agencies. This talk presents the ongoing plans for model advancements at GFDL, GMAO and EMC, with special emphasis on contributions towards developing community based unified global modeling system for operational and research applications at respective organizations. Future plans include extending the collaborations to the development of earth system components including GMAO's aerosol chemistry models (GOCART/MAM (Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport / Modal Aerosol Model)), Land Information System (LIS), and advanced data assimilation techniques; and GFDL's Modular Ocean Model (MOM) and Sea Ice Simulator (SIS) for transition to operations at NCEP.

Putman, William↗
NASA NTRS2018

NU-WRF Development and Support at NASA GSFC

The NASA Unified WRF modeling system (NU-WRF) is an observation driven framework that combines WRF-ARW with Goddard developed radiation, microphysics, aerosols and land information system (LIS) packages. NU-WRF can be used for simulating aerosols and land use effects on a variety of weather events. This poster will present a description of the modeling system including updates and future plans.

Cruz, Carlos A.↗
NASA NTRS2018

RELAMPAGO Lightning Mapping Array Update

GLM (Geostationary Lightning Mapper) Science Hypothesis for RELAMPAGO (Remote sensing of Electrification, Lightning, And Mesoscale/microscale Processes with Adaptive Ground Observations): Argentinian storms produce some of the highest flash rates ever recorded from space; Due to similarity in geographic and atmospheric environments between Argentina and the U.S. High Plains, we hypothesize that many of these storms have anomalous charge structures, with predominantly positive charge in the mid-levels; Thus, most intracloud lightning flashes are smaller, occur at lower altitudes, and occur in more optically thick portions of the cloud; Therefore, we hypothesize that GLM (and LIS (Lightning Imaging Sensor)) flash rates are biased low in many Argentinian storms, due to reduced optical detection efficiency.

Lang, Timothy↗
NASA NTRS2019

Understanding the Impacts of Soil Moisture Initial Conditions on NWP in the Context of Land-Atmosphere Coupling

The role of soil moisture in NWP has gained more attention in recent years, as studies have demonstrated impacts of land surface states on ambient weather from diurnal to seasonal scales. However, soil moisture initialization approaches in coupled models remain quite diverse in terms of their complexity and observational roots, while assessment using bulk forecast statistics can be simplistic and misleading. In this study, a suite of soil moisture initialization approaches is used to generate short-term coupled forecasts over the U.S. Southern Great Plains using NASA’s Land Information System (LIS) and NASA Unified WRF (NU-WRF) modeling systems. This includes a wide range of currently used initialization approaches, including soil moisture derived from ‘off-the-shelf’ products such as atmospheric models and land data assimilation systems, high-resolution land surface model spinups, and satellite-based soil moisture products from SMAP. Results indicate that the spread across initialization approaches can be quite large in terms of soil moisture conditions and spatial resolution, and that SMAP performs well in terms of heterogeneity and temporal dynamics when compared against high resolution land surface model and in-situ soil moisture estimates. Case studies are analyzed using the local land-atmosphere coupling (LoCo) framework that relies on integrated assessment of soil moisture, surface flux, boundary layer, and ambient weather, with results highlighting the critical role of inherent model background biases. In addition, simultaneous assessment of land vs. atmospheric initial conditions in an integrated, process-level fashion can help address the question of whether improvements in traditional NWP verification statistics are achieved for the right reasons.

Southern Great Plains↗
NASA NTRS2018

Nitrogen Oxides in the Global Upper Troposphere: Interpreting Cloud-Sliced NO2 Observations from the OMI Satellite Instrument

Nitrogen oxides (NOx≡NO+NO2) in the upper troposphere (UT) have a large impact on global tropospheric ozone and OH (the main atmospheric oxidant). New cloud-sliced observations of UT NO2 at 450–280 hPa (∼6–9 km) from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) produced by NASA and the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) provide global coverage to test our understanding of the factors controlling UT NOx. We find that these products offer useful information when averaged over coarse scales (20°×32°, seasonal), and that the NASA product is more consistent with aircraft observations of UT NO2. Correlation with Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) and Optical Transient Detector (OTD) satellite observations of lightning flash frequencies suggests that lightning is the dominant source of NOx to the upper troposphere except for extratropical latitudes in winter. The NO2 background in the absence of lightning is 10–20 pptv. We infer a global mean NOx yield of 280±80 moles per lightning flash, with no significant difference between the tropics and midlatitudes, and a global lightning NOx source of 5.9±1.7 Tg N a(exp −1). There is indication that the NOx yield per flash increases with lightning flash footprint and with flash energy.

Marais, Eloise A.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Exploring the Utility of Machine Learning-Based Passive Microwave Brightness Temperature Data Assimilation over Terrestrial Snow in High Mountain Asia

This study explores the use of a support vector machine (SVM) as the observation operator within a passive microwave brightness temperature data assimilation framework (herein SVM-DA) to enhance the characterization of snow water equivalent (SWE) over High Mountain Asia (HMA). A series of synthetic twin experiments were conducted with the NASA Land Information System (LIS) at a number of locations across HMA. Overall, the SVM-DA framework is effective at improving SWE estimates (~70% reduction in RMSE relative to the Open Loop) for SWE depths less than 200 mm during dry snowpack conditions. The SVM-DA framework also improves SWE estimates in deep, wet snow (~45% reduction in RMSE) when snow liquid water is well estimated by the land surface model, but can lead to model degradation when snow liquid water estimates diverge from values used during SVM training. In particular, two key challenges of using the SVM-DA framework were observed over deep, wet snowpacks. First, variations in snow liquid water content dominate the brightness temperature spectral difference (TB) signal associated with emission from a wet snowpack, which can lead to abrupt changes in SWE during the analysis update. Second, the ensemble of SVM-based predictions can collapse (i.e., yield a near-zero standard deviation across the ensemble) when prior estimates of snow are outside the range of snow inputs used during the SVM training procedure. Such a scenario can lead to the presence of spurious error correlations between SWE and TB, and as a consequence, can result in degraded SWE estimates from the analysis update. These degraded analysis updates can be largely mitigated by applying rule-based approaches. For example, restricting the SWE update when the standard deviation of the predicted TB is greater than 0.05 K helps prevent the occurrence of filter divergence. Similarly, adding a thin layer (i.e., 5 mm) of SWE when the synthetic TB is larger than 5 K can improve SVM-DA performance in the presence of a precipitation dry bias. The study demonstrates that a carefully constructed SVM-DA framework cognizant of the inherent limitations of passive microwave-based SWE estimation holds promise for snow mass data assimilation.

Kwon, Yonghwan↗
NASA NTRS2019

Water Storage Trends in High Mountain Asia

Changes in terrestrial water storage (TWS) in High Mountain Asia (HMA) could have major societal impacts, as the region’s large reservoirs of glaciers, snow, and groundwater provide a freshwater source to more than one billion people. We seek to quantify and close the budget of secular changes in TWS over the span of the GRACE satellite mission (2003–2016). To assess the TWS trend budget we consider a new high-resolution mass trend product determined directly from GRACE L1B data, glacier mass balance derived from Digital Elevation Models (DEMs), groundwater variability determined from confined and unconfined well observations, and terrestrial water budget estimates from a suite of land surface model simulations with the NASA Land Information System (LIS). This effort is successful at closing the aggregated TWS trend budget over the entire HMA region, the glaciated portion of HMA, and the Indus and Ganges basins, where the full-region trends are primarily due to the glacier mass balance and groundwater signals. Additionally, we investigate the closure of TWS trends at individual 1-arc-degree mascons (area ≈12,000 km2); a significant improvement in spatial resolution over previous analyses of GRACE-derived trends. This mascon-level analysis reveals locations where the TWS trends are well-explained by the independent datasets, as well as regions where they are not; identifying specific geographic areas where additional data and model improvements are needed. The accurate characterization of total TWS trends and its components presented here is critical to understanding the complex dynamics of the region, and is a necessary step toward projecting future water mass changes in HMA.

Bryant D Loomis↗
NASA NTRS2020

Quantification of the Land Surface and Brown Ocean Influence on Tropical Cyclone Intensification Over Land

An investigation of TC Kelvin in February 2018 over northeast Australia was conducted to understand the mechanisms of the Brown Ocean effect (BOE), and to develop a comprehensive analysis framework for land falling tropical cyclones (TCs) in the process. NASA’s Land Information System (LIS) coupled to the NASA Unified WRF (NU-WRF) system was employed as the numerical model framework for 12 land/soil moisture perturbation experiments. Impacts of soil moisture and surface enthalpy flux conditions on TC Kelvin were investigated by closely evaluating simulated track and intensity, midlevel atmospheric thermodynamic properties, vertical wind shear, total precipitable water (TPW), and surface moisture flux. The results suggest that there were recognized differentiations among the sensitivity simulations as a result of land surface (e.g., soil moisture and texture) conditions. However, the intensification of TC Kelvin over land was more strongly related to atmospheric moisture advection and the diurnal cycle of solar radiation (i.e., radiative cooling) than to overall soil moisture conditions or surface fluxes. The analysis framework employed here for TC Kelvin can serve as a foundation to specifically quantify the factors governing the BOE. It also demonstrates that the BOE is not a binary influence (i.e. all or nothing), but instead operates in a continuum from largely to minimally influential such that it could be utilized to help improve prediction of inland effects for all land falling TCs.

Jinwoong Yoo↗
NASA NTRS2020

Evaluation and Validation of a High Spatial Resolution Satellite Soil Moisture Product over the Continental United States

The soil moisture (SM) data retrieved from the Soil Moisture Active and Passive (SMAP) satellite are available at a 9 km grid spacing since April 2015. This product can provide valuable information for research and applications in hydrology and other related fields. However, the resolution may be too coarse for applications at catchment or field scale. In this study, an established downscaling methodology, which had a major modification regarding its application on the SMAP 33 km domain, was implemented to develop a 1 km soil moisture product based on the SMAP 9 km data. The algorithm proposed here is based on the thermal inertia principle and developed by modeling the relationship between surface temperature difference and SM for different Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) classes. The model functions were established and tuned using data from the NASA’s Land Information System (LIS) North America Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) and remotely sensed VISible/InfRared (VIS/IR) reflectance data from Long Term Data Record (LTDR) AVHRR (Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer) for the growing season months of April-September 1981–2018. These were then implemented using the MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) data over the Continental United States (CONUS) domain. Validation activities were carried out using in situ measurements distributed through the International Soil Moisture Network (ISMN). The validation results computed using the 1 km SM data showed that the R2, unbiased RMSE (root mean square error) and bias were improved relative to the 9 km SMAP product by 0.045, 0.018m3/m3 and 0.001m3/m3, respectively. The 1 km SM also exhibited a strong time-series autocorrelation. Further accuracy assessment analyses indicated that precipitation might contribute to the uncertainties in both the 9 km SMAP and 1 km downscaled SMAP SM products.

SMAP↗
NASA NTRS2020

Quantification of the Land Surface and Brown Ocean Influence on Tropical Cyclone Intensification Over Land

An investigation of TC Kelvin in February 2018 over northeast Australia was conducted to understand the mechanisms of the Brown Ocean effect (BOE), and to develop a comprehensive analysis framework for landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) in the process. NASA’s Land Information System (LIS) coupled to the NASA Unified WRF (NU-WRF) system was employed as the numerical model framework for 12 land/soil moisture perturbation experiments. Impacts of soil moisture and surface enthalpy flux conditions on TC Kelvin were investigated by closely evaluating simulated track and intensity, midlevel atmospheric thermodynamic properties, vertical wind shear, total precipitable water (TPW), and surface moisture flux. The results suggest that there were recognized differentiations among the sensitivity simulations as a result of land surface (e.g., soil moisture and texture) conditions. However, the intensification of TC Kelvin over land was more strongly related to atmospheric moisture advection and the diurnal cycle of solar radiation (i.e., radiative cooling) than to overall soil moisture conditions or surface fluxes. The analysis framework employed here for TC Kelvin can serve as a foundation to specifically quantify the factors governing the BOE. It also demonstrates that the BOE is not a binary influence (i.e. all or nothing), but instead operates in a continuum from largely to minimally influential such that it could be utilized to help improve prediction of inland effects for all landfalling TCs.

Brown Ocean Effect↗
NASA NTRS2021

Developing a Hydrological Monitoring and Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal Forecasting System for South and Southeast Asian River Basins

South and Southeast Asia is subject to significant hydrometeorological extremes, including drought. Under rising temperatures, growing populations, and an apparent weakening of the South Asian monsoon in recent decades, concerns regarding drought and its potential impacts on water and food security are on the rise. Reliable sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) hydrological forecasts could, in principle, help governments and international organizations to better assess risk and act in the face of an oncoming drought. Here, we leverage recent improvements in S2S meteorological forecasts and the growing power of Earth Observations to provide more accurate monitoring of hydrological states for forecast initialization. Information from both sources is merged in a South and Southeast Asia sub-seasonal to seasonal hydrological forecasting system (SAHFS-S2S), developed collaboratively with the NASA SERVIR program and end-users across the region. This system applies the Noah-MultiParameterization (NoahMP) Land Surface Model (LSM) in the NASA Land Information System (LIS), driven by downscaled meteorological fields from the Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS) and Climate Hazards InfraRed Precipitation products (CHIRP and CHIRPS) to optimize initial conditions. The NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Model - sub-seasonal to seasonal (GEOS-S2S) forecasts, downscaled using the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) General Analog Regression Downscaling (GARD) tool and quantile mapping, are then applied to drive 5-km resolution hydrological forecasts to a 9-month forecast time horizon. Results show that the skillful predictions of root zone soil moisture can be made one to two months in advance for forecasts initialized in rainy seasons and up to 8 months when initialized in dry seasons. The memory of accurate initial conditions can positively contribute to forecast skills throughout the entire 9-month prediction period in areas with limited precipitation. This SAHFS-S2S has been operationalized at the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) to support drought monitoring and warning needs in the region.

Yifan Zhou↗
NASA NTRS2020

Towards a Soil Moisture Drought Monitoring System for South Korea

The Korea Land Data Assimilation System (KLDAS) has been established for agricultural drought (i.e. soil moisture deficit) monitoring in South Korea, running the Noah-MP land surface model within the NASA Land Information System (LIS) framework with the added value of local precipitation forcing dataset and soil texture maps. KLDAS soil moisture is benchmarked against three global products: the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS), the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) Land Data Assimilation System (FLDAS), and the European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative (ESA CCI) satellite product. The evaluation is performed using in situ measurements for 2013–2015 and one month standardized precipitation index (SPI-1) for 1982–2016, focusing on four major river basins in South Korea. The KLDAS outperforms all benchmark products in capturing soil moisture states and variability at a basin scale. Compared to GLDAS and FLDAS products, the EAS CCI product is not feasible for long term agricultural monitoring due to lower data quality for early periods (1979–1991) of soil moisture estimates. KLDAS shows that the most recent 2015 drought event leads to highest drought areas in the Han and Geum River basins in the past 35 years. This work supports KLDAS as an effective agricultural drought monitoring system to provide continuous regional high-resolution soil moisture estimates in South Korea.

Agricultural drought↗