Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “HYPOTHESIS”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 343 records · Page 19
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Bootstrap-determined p values in lattice QCD

We present a general method to determine the probability that stochastic Monte Carlo data, in particular those generated in a lattice QCD calculation, would have been obtained were that data drawn from the distribution predicted by a given theoretical hypothesis. Such a probability, or p -value, is often used as an important heuristic measure of the validity of that hypothesis. The proposed method offers the benefit that it remains usable in cases where the standard Hotelling T 2 methods based on the conventional χ 2 statistic do not apply, such as for uncorrelated fits. Specifically, we analyze q 2 , defined as the correlated χ 2 statistic obtained using an arbitrary covariance matrix estimator, and show how to use the bootstrap as a data-driven method to determine the expected distribution of q 2 for a given hypothesis with minimal assumptions. This distribution can then be used to determine the p -value for a fit to the data. We also describe a bootstrap approach for quantifying the impact upon this p -value of estimating population parameters from a single ensemble of N samples. The overall method is accurate up to a 1 / N bias which we do not attempt to quantify. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2023

Differential early–life survival underlies the adaptive significance of temperature–dependent sex determination in a long–lived reptile

1. Many ectotherms rely on temperature cues experienced during development to determine offspring sex. The first descriptions of temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD) were made over 50 years ago, yet an understanding of its adaptive significance remains elusive, especially in long-lived taxa. 2. One novel hypothesis predicts that TSD should be evolutionarily favoured when two criteria are met—(a) incubation temperature influences annual juvenile survival and (b) sexes mature at different ages. Under these conditions, a sex-dependent effect of incubation temperature on offspring fitness arises through differences in age at sexual maturity, with the sex that matures later benefiting disproportionately from temperatures that promote juvenile survival. 3. The American alligator (Alligator mississippiensis) serves as an insightful model in which to test this hypothesis, as males begin reproducing nearly a decade after females. Here, through a combination of artificial incubation experiments and mark-recapture approaches, we test the specific predictions of the survival-to-maturity hypothesis for the adaptive value of TSD by disentangling the effects of incubation temperature and sex on annual survival of alligator hatchlings across two geographically distinct sites. 4. Hatchlings incubated at male-promoting temperatures (MPTs) consistently exhibited higher survival compared to those incubated at female-promoting temperatures. This pattern appears independent of hatchling sex, as females produced from hormone manipulation at MPT exhibit similar survival to their male counterparts. 5. Additional experiments show that incubation temperature may affect early-life survival primarily by affecting the efficiency with which maternally transferred energy resources are used during development. 6. Results from this study provide the first explicit empirical support for the adaptive value of TSD in a crocodilian and point to developmental energetics as a potential unifying mechanism underlying persistent survival consequences of incubation temperature.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Seeing the forest for all the trees: Mycorrhizal‐associated nutrient economies are modulated by stem density and the synchrony between overstorey and understorey communities

1. Identifying relationships between plant communities and soil characteristics is a critical step in understanding the consequences of species gains and losses in ecosystems. The mycorrhizal associated nutrient economy (MANE) hypothesis predicts that the degree to which tree species and their mycorrhizal associates affect soil properties is driven by the relative dominance of different mycorrhizal types (often measured by relative basal area). While this approach emphasizes the importance of canopy trees, it does not account for how other factors (e.g. the density and composition of understorey trees) may alter tree–soil relationships. 2. We analysed tree–soil data from an eastern deciduous forest in southern Indiana, USA that contains >29,000 georeferenced stems, including 21 species that associate with arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi and 14 that associate with ectomycorrhizal (ECM) fungi. We sampled soils (upper 5 cm) from across the plot and modelled soil characteristics to tree communities. Given differences in soil characteristics among AM-dominated and ECM-dominated neighbourhoods, we hypothesized that relationships between tree-mycorrhizal dominance and soils would be affected by both the density of stems in the plot (owing to ‘Zinke’ individual plant effects) and composition of the understorey trees (owing to ‘trait divergence effects’) 3. In support of our Zinke hypothesis, we found that the relationships between tree-mycorrhizal dominance and soil variables (soil pH, nitrification rates and carbon to nitrogen ratio) were strengthened as stand density increased. In support of the trait divergence hypothesis, we found that as the mismatch between overstorey and understorey composition increased (e.g. AM-dominated understories beneath ECM-dominated overstories and vice versa), the relationship between tree dominance and soil variables weakened. We were able to use these insights to create mycorrhizal metrics to predict soil variables that were sensitive to the structural composition of neighbourhoods. 4. Synthesis. Our results indicate that relationships between plants and soils in forests are not only shaped by dominant overstorey trees but also the density and composition of understorey trees. Thus, efforts to predict the ecosystem consequences of species gains and losses may benefit from considering these elements of forest structure and not only the basal area of the dominant trees.

MANE framework↗
DOE OSTI2023

Reduced global plant respiration due to the acclimation of leaf dark respiration coupled with photosynthesis

Summary Leaf dark respiration ( R d ) acclimates to environmental changes. However, the magnitude, controls and time scales of acclimation remain unclear and are inconsistently treated in ecosystem models. We hypothesized that R d and Rubisco carboxylation capacity ( V cmax ) at 25°C ( R d,25 , V cmax,25 ) are coordinated so that R d,25 variations support V cmax,25 at a level allowing full light use, with V cmax,25 reflecting daytime conditions (for photosynthesis), and R d,25 / V cmax,25 reflecting night‐time conditions (for starch degradation and sucrose export). We tested this hypothesis temporally using a 5‐yr warming experiment, and spatially using an extensive field‐measurement data set. We compared the results to three published alternatives: R d,25 declines linearly with daily average prior temperature; R d at average prior night temperatures tends towards a constant value; and R d,25 / V cmax,25 is constant. Our hypothesis accounted for more variation in observed R d,25 over time ( R 2 = 0.74) and space ( R 2 = 0.68) than the alternatives. Night‐time temperature dominated the seasonal time‐course of R d , with an apparent response time scale of c. 2 wk. V cmax dominated the spatial patterns. Our acclimation hypothesis results in a smaller increase in global R d in response to rising CO 2 and warming than is projected by the two of three alternative hypotheses, and by current models.

Plant Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2026

Particle Filter Based Inference Testing

The primary intent of PAR-FIT (Particle Filter based Inference Testing) is to provide hard inductive evidence that a machine learning model is capable and proven for an individual test input. By examining training data used to form the underlying model functional correlation, an estimate of the reliability that a model will make the correct prediction can be made. The Sequential Probability Ratio Test is used to derive a qualitative evaluation for reliability based on hypothesis testing. The PAR-FIT framework achieves this by implementing a particle filter and the sequential probability ratio test algorithms on the machine learning model training data to determine relevancy of new individual test samples to the training dataset. The kernel function evaluates the local proximity and density of training data used to derive a prediction outcome. Particles are used to probabilistically determine which training data to evaluate for proximity. For test samples that are within a close proximity to and surrounded by multiple training data points, the evaluated reliability of the prediction is high. For test samples that are anomalies not represented by the training dataset, in low density data clusters, or are far from existing data points, the evaluated reliability is low as insufficient training evidence exists to suggest the model is capable of making the correct prediction. Sequential Probability Ratio Test is further used to determine when a hypothesis on whether a signal can be rejected or accepted for use. The ratio test collects sequence information from the particle filter to test whether the signal is anomalous or normal via hypothesis testing of the underlying distributions.

Chen, Edward [Idaho National Laboratory (INL), Ida↗
DOE OSTI2020

Summertime Post-Cold-Frontal Marine Stratocumulus Transition Processes over the Eastern North Atlantic

Abstract Marine boundary layer (MBL) cloud morphology associated with two summertime cold fronts over the eastern North Atlantic (ENA) is investigated using high-resolution simulations from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model and observations from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) ENA Climate Research Facility. Lagrangian trajectories are used to study the evolution of post-cold-frontal MBL clouds from solid stratocumulus to broken cumulus. Clouds within specified domains in the vicinity of transitions are classified according to their degree of decoupling, and cloud-base and cloud-top breakup processes are evaluated. The Lagrangian derivative of the surface latent heat flux is found to be strongly correlated with that of the cloud fraction at cloud base in the simulations. Cloud-top entrainment instability (CTEI) is shown to operate only in the decoupled MBL. A new indicator of inversion strength at cloud top that employs the vertical gradients of equivalent potential temperature and saturation equivalent potential temperature, which can be computed directly from soundings, is proposed as an alternative to CTEI. Overall, results suggest that the deepening–warming hypothesis suggested by Bretherton and Wyant explains many of the characteristics of the summertime postfrontal MBL evolution of cloud structure over the ENA, thereby widening the phase space over which the hypothesis may be applied. A subset of the deepening–warming hypothesis involving warming initially dominating over moistening is proposed. It is postulated that changes in climate change–induced modifications in cold-frontal structure over the ENA may be accompanied by coincident changes in the location and timing of MBL cloud transitions in the post-cold-frontal environment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Thermal chains and entrainment in cumulus updrafts, Part 2: Analysis of idealized simulations

Research has suggested that the structure of deep convection often consists of a series of rising thermals, or “thermal chain”, which contrasts with existing conceptual models that are used to construct cumulus parameterizations. In this work, simplified theoretical expressions for updraft properties obtained in Part 1 of this study are used to develop a hypothesis explaining why this structure occurs. In this hypothesis, cumulus updraft structure is strongly influenced by organized entrainment below the updraft’s vertical velocity maximum. In a dry environment, this enhanced entrainment can locally reduce condensation rates and increase evaporation, thus eroding buoyancy. For moderate-to-large initial cloud radius R, this breaks up the updraft into a succession of discrete pulses of rising motion (i.e., a thermal chain). For small R, this leads to the structure of a single, isolated rising thermal. In contrast, moist environments are hypothesized to favor plume-like updrafts for moderate-to-large R. In a series of axisymmetric numerical cloud simulations, R and environmental relative humidity (RH) are systematically varied to test this hypothesis. Vertical profiles of fractional entrainment rate, passive tracer concentration, buoyancy, and vertical velocity from these runs agree well with vertical profiles calculated from the theoretical expressions in Part 1. Analysis of the simulations supports the hypothesized dependency of updraft structure on R and RH, that is, whether it consists of an isolated thermal, a thermal chain, or a plume, and the role of organized entrainment in driving this dependency. Additional 3-dimensional (3-D) turbulent cloud simulations are analyzed, and the behavior of these 3-D runs is qualitatively consistent with the theoretical expressions and axisymmetric simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Influence of Shear on Deep Convection Initiation. Part II: Simulations

Abstract This study evaluates a hypothesis for the role of vertical wind shear in deep convection initiation (DCI) that was introduced in Part I by examining behavior of a series of numerical simulations. The hypothesis states, “Initial moist updrafts that exceed a width and shear threshold will ‘root’ within a progressively deeper steering current with time, increase their low-level cloud-relative flow and inflow, widen, and subsequently reduce their susceptibility to entrainment-driven dilution, evolving toward a quasi-steady self-sustaining state.” A theoretical model that embodied key elements of the hypothesis was developed in Part I, and the behavior of this model was explored within a multidimensional environmental parameter space. Remarkably similar behavior is evident in the simulations studied here to that of the theoretical model, both in terms of the temporal evolution of DCI and in the sensitivity of DCI to environmental parameters. Notably, both the simulations and theoretical model experience a bifurcation in outcomes, whereby nascent clouds that are narrower than a given initial radius R 0 threshold quickly decay and those above the R 0 threshold undergo DCI. An important assumption in the theoretical model, which states that the cloud-relative flow of the background environment V CR determines cloud radius R , is scrutinized in the simulations. It is shown that storm-induced inflow is small relative to V CR beyond a few kilometers from the updraft edge, and V CR therefore plays a predominant role in transporting conditionally unstable air to the updraft. Thus, the critical role of V CR in determining R is validated.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Disentangling the Influences of Storm-Relative Flow and Horizontal Streamwise Vorticity on Low-Level Mesocyclones in Supercells

Sufficient low-level storm-relative flow is a necessary ingredient for sustained supercell thunderstorms and is connected to supercell updraft width. Assuming a supercell exists, the role of low-level storm-relative flow in regulating supercells’ low-level mesocyclone intensity is less clear. One possibility considered in this article is that storm-relative flow controls mesocyclone and tornado width via its modulation of overall updraft extent. This hypothesis relies on a previously postulated positive correspondence between updraft width, mesocyclone width, and tornado width. An alternative hypothesis is that mesocyclone characteristics are primarily regulated by horizontal streamwise vorticity irrespective of storm-relative flow. A matrix of supercell simulations was analyzed to address the aforementioned hypotheses, wherein horizontal streamwise vorticity and storm-relative flow were independently varied. Among these simulations, mesocyclone width and intensity were strongly correlated with horizontal streamwise vorticity, and comparatively weakly correlated with storm-relative flow, supporting the second hypothesis. Accompanying theory and trajectory analysis offers the physical explanation that, when storm-relative flow is large and updrafts are wide, vertically tilted streamwise vorticity is projected over a wider area but with a lesser average magnitude than when these parameters are small. These factors partially offset one another, degrading the correspondence of storm-relative flow with updraft circulation and rotational velocity, which are the mesocyclone attributes most closely tied to tornadoes. In conclusion, these results refute the previously purported connections between updraft width, mesocyclone width, and tornado width, and emphasize horizontal streamwise vorticity as the primary control on low-level mesocyclones in sustained supercells.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Gene expression of functionally-related genes coevolves across fungal species: detecting coevolution of gene expression using phylogenetic comparative methods

Researchers often measure changes in gene expression across conditions to better understand the shared functional roles and regulatory mechanisms of different genes. Analogous to this is comparing gene expression across species, which can improve our understanding of the evolutionary processes shaping the evolution of both individual genes and functional pathways. One area of interest is determining genes showing signals of coevolution, which can also indicate potential functional similarity, analogous to co-expression analysis often performed across conditions for a single species. However, as with any trait, comparing gene expression across species can be confounded by the non-independence of species due to shared ancestry, making standard hypothesis testing inappropriate. We compared RNA-Seq data across 18 fungal species using a multivariate Brownian Motion phylogenetic comparative method (PCM), which allowed us to quantify coevolution between protein pairs while directly accounting for the shared ancestry of the species. Our work indicates proteins which physically-interact show stronger signals of coevolution than randomly-generated pairs. Interactions with stronger empirical and computational evidence also showing stronger signals of coevolution. We examined the effects of number of protein interactions and gene expression levels on coevolution, finding both factors are overall poor predictors of the strength of coevolution between a protein pair. Simulations further demonstrate the potential issues of analyzing gene expression coevolution without accounting for shared ancestry in a standard hypothesis testing framework. Furthermore, our simulations indicate the use of a randomly-generated null distribution as a means of determining statistical significance for detecting coevolving genes with phylogenetically-uncorrected correlations, as has previously been done, is less accurate than PCMs, although is a significant improvement over standard hypothesis testing. These methods are further improved by using a phylogenetically-corrected correlation metric. Our work highlights potential benefits of using PCMs to detect gene expression coevolution from high-throughput omics scale data. This framework can be built upon to investigate other evolutionary hypotheses, such as changes in transcription regulatory mechanisms across species.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Energetic Electron Transport in Magnetized Plasma with Magnetic Islands (Final Technical Report)

The main scientific goal of this project was to investigate the interactions between energetic electrons and magnetic islands in magnetized plasmas from lab to space. The proposed plan of addressed the following specific objectives: (1) Determine if energetic electrons are trapped by magnetic islands. Specifically, test the hypothesis that energetic electrons are trapped near island O-points due to stable orbits and de-confined near island X-points due to X-point tangles. (2) Determine how electron transport changes with island width and location. Specifically, test the hypothesis that electrons are accelerated by contracting magnetic islands through a Fermi acceleration process. (3) Assess how electron transport is affected by island dynamics, including island rotation, bifurcation, and/or island overlap. Specifically, test the hypothesis that electrons are deconfined and possibly accelerated during island rotations, bifurcations, and overlap due to stochastization of the magnetic field lines.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Association of Mesoscale Auroral Structures and Breakups With Energetic Particle Injections at Geosynchronous Orbit

Geomagnetic substorms are associated with characteristic energetic particle injection signatures at geosynchronous orbit that are often dispersionless in both electrons and ions near the magnetic local time sector of auroral onset locations and are dispersed farther away from this region. Although the precise mechanism responsible for the coherent injection signatures at geosynchronous orbit have been the topic on considerable ongoing debate for decades, recent work on bursty bulk flows (BBFs) in the tail have led to the hypothesis that they may be the result of multiple, overlapping flow bursts penetrating into the inner magnetosphere from more distant downtail reconnection sites. Since auroral streamers are thought to be ionospheric signatures of BBFs in the tail, they can be used as proxies for testing this hypothesis. Using high resolution auroral imagery from the POLAR/VIS instrument combined with multi-spacecraft observations of energetic particle injections at geosynchronous orbit, we examine the association of mesoscale auroral structures with particle injection signatures over many hours during the 9 November 1998 storm. We find that the explosive types of auroral activations, such as pseudo-breakups and substorm onset breakups, are associated with the more intense and well-defined dispersed injection signatures, while intervals of isolated streamer activity appear to be associated with smaller dispersed “injectionlet” signatures. Furthermore, intervals of sustained, intense, and late expansion phase/recovery phase streamer activity appear to be associated with sustained elevated dispersed particle fluxes. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that it is the overlapping effects of sustained, intense multiple flow bursts penetrating toward the Earth that result in classical substorm particle injection signatures at geosynchronous orbit. However, it is also suggested that torches/omega-band tongues are the prime fate of braking isolated flow bursts (streamers) rather than the development of breakups, bulges, and substorm current wedge formation. A statistical analysis is presented showing that 93% of the observed torches evolved from streamers, 93% of streamers arriving in the equatorward regions of the bulge led to torches, 10.5% of such streamers led to breakups (either pseudo-breakups or substorm onsets), and only 3.5% of such streamers led to substorm onsets.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

An Updated Review of Hypotheses Regarding Bat Attraction to Wind Turbines

Patterns of bat activity and mortalities at wind energy facilities suggest that bats are attracted to wind turbines based on bat behavioral responses to wind turbines. For example, current monitoring efforts suggest that bat activity increases post-wind turbine construction, with bats making multiple passes near wind turbines. We separated the attraction hypothesis into five previously proposed explanations of bat interactions at or near wind turbines, including attraction based on noise, roost sites, foraging and water, mating behavior, and lights, and one new hypothesis regarding olfaction, and provide a state of the knowledge in 2022. Our review indicates that future research should prioritize attraction based on social behaviors, such as mating and scent-marking, as this aspect of the attraction hypothesis has many postulates and remains the most unclear. Relatively more data regarding attraction to wind turbines based on lighting and noise emission exist, and these data indicate that these are unlikely attractants. Analyzing attraction at the species-level should be prioritized because of differences in foraging, flight, and social behavior among bat species. Lastly, research assessing bat attraction at various scales, such as the turbine or facility scale, is lacking, which could provide important insights for both wind turbine siting decisions and bat mortality minimization strategies. Identifying the causes of bat interactions with wind turbines is critical for developing effective impact minimization strategies.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1973

Evaluation of astrophysical hypotheses.

The aim of this article is to set out a bookkeeping procedure for formalizing the process of assessing a hypothesis by comparison of conclusions drawn theoretically from this hypothesis with facts obtained by reduction of observational data. The formalism used is that of probability theory. A key role is played by Bayes's rule representing the inductive process of adjusting a degree of belief in response to new information. Formulae are derived which show (1) how the probability of each hypothesis should be adjusted in response to information concerning one item, and (2) how such estimates concerning more than one item may be combined. The procedure is illustrated by a work sheet showing how a few facts and conclusions concerning pulsars were combined to appraise the neutron-star and white-dwarf hypotheses.

Sturrock, P. A.↗
NASA NTRS1973

Calculation of free turbulent mixing by interaction approach.

The applicability of Bradshaw's interaction hypothesis to two-dimensional free shear flows was investigated. According to it, flows with velocity extrema may be considered to consist of several interacting layers. The hypothesis leads to a new expression for the shear stress which removes the usual restriction that shear stress vanishes at the velocity extremum. The approach is based on kinetic energy and the length scale equations. The compressible flow equations are simplified by restriction to low Mach numbers, and the range of their applicability is discussed. The empirical functions of the turbulence model are found here to be correlated with the spreading rate of the shear layer. The analysis demonstrates that the interaction hypothesis is a workable concept.

Morel, T.↗
NASA NTRS1974

The formation of the moon

Supporting evidence for the fission hypothesis for the origin of the moon is offered. The maximum allowable amount of free iron now present in the moon would not suffice to extract the siderophiles from the lunar silicates with the observed efficiency. Hence extraction must have been done with a larger amount of iron, as in the mantle of the earth, of which the moon was once a part, according to the fission hypothesis. The fission hypothesis gives a good resolution of the tektite paradox. Tektites are chemically much like products of the mantle of the earth; but no physically possible way has been found to explain their production from the earth itself. Perhaps they are a product of late, deep-seated lunar volcanism. If so, the moon must have inside it some material with a strong resemblance to the earth's mantle.

O'Keefe, J. A., III↗
NASA NTRS1976

A method for generating numerical pilot opinion ratings using the optimal pilot model

A method for generating numerical pilot opinion ratings using the optimal pilot model is introduced. The method is contained in a rating hypothesis which states that the numerical rating which a human pilot assigns to a specific vehicle and task can be directly related to the numerical value of the index of performance resulting from the optimal pilot modeling procedure as applied to that vehicle and task. The hypothesis is tested using the data from four piloted simulations. The results indicate that the hypothesis is reasonable, but that the predictive capability of the method is a strong function of the accuracy of the pilot model itself. This accuracy is, in turn, dependent upon the parameters which define the optimal modeling problem. A procedure for specifying the parameters for the optimal pilot model in the absence of experimental data is suggested.

Hess, R. A.↗
NASA NTRS1975

L-phase variants of Agromyces ramosus

Earlier results suggested that Agromyces ramosus possibly might exist naturally in soil as a cell-wall-defective form. The purpose of the present study was to test this hypothesis by determining whether the laboratory-adapted strains of A. ramosus could be artificially induced into the L-phase and, if so, to examine some parameters affecting induction and the stability of the L-forms. The hypothesis was also tested by attempting to revert the laboratory L-phase strains by subjecting them to the technique originally used for isolation of the bacterial form from soil. It is shown that A. ramosus is easily induced into the L-phase by growing it on an agar media containing low levels of penicillin or glycine. The L-forms are found to be stable after initial contact with the inducing agent and to be unable to be reverted to the bacterial form. However, this lack of reversion does not completely negate the hypothesis that L-forms might occur in nature, because it is possible that L-forms existing in the natural state are less stable than those found in the laboratory where there is little selective pressure toward reversion.

Horwitz, A. H.↗