NASA NTRS2008
The United States National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is in the midst of a space exploration program called Constellation to send crew and cargo to the international Space Station, to the moon, and beyond. As part of the Constellation program, a new launch vehicle, Ares I, is being developed by NASA Marshall Space Flight Center. Designing a launch vehicle with high reliability and increased safety requires a significant effort in understanding design variability and design uncertainty at the various levels of the design (system, element, subsystem, component, etc.) and throughout the various design phases (conceptual, preliminary design, etc.). In a previous paper [1] we discussed a probabilistic functional failure analysis approach intended mainly to support system requirements definition, system design, and element design during the early design phases. This paper provides an overview of the application of probabilistic engineering methods to support the detailed subsystem/component design and development as part of the "Design for Reliability and Safety" approach for the new Ares I Launch Vehicle. Specifically, the paper discusses probabilistic engineering design analysis cases that had major impact on the design and manufacturing of the Space Shuttle hardware. The cases represent important lessons learned from the Space Shuttle Program and clearly demonstrate the significance of probabilistic engineering analysis in better understanding design deficiencies and identifying potential design improvement for Ares I. The paper also discusses the probabilistic functional failure analysis approach applied during the early design phases of Ares I and the forward plans for probabilistic design analysis in the detailed design and development phases.