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DOE OSTI2021

A new coupled multiphase flow–finite strain deformation–fault slip framework for induced seismicity

Production of hydrocarbons and water from subsurface reservoirs are known to cause permanent deformation of the reservoir and seismicity along faults both of which are detrimental to sustainable development of natural resources. Most of the prior studies on understanding fluid flow-induced plasticity and seismicity have focused on one or the other phenomenon due to the numerical difficulty associated with simultaneous modeling of the two failure phenomena because stress and deformation evolve non-linearly in both plasticity and seismicity. However, in reservoirs undergoing long-term production, plastic failure can alter the stress paths of points on a fault such that the onset, location, and magnitude of actual seismic events can no longer be predicted by a poroelastic simulation due to inaccurate stress and deformation history. We present a computational framework for coupled multiphase flow, finite strain poroplastic deformation, and dynamic fault slip and use it to understand the impact of plastic deformation on the onset, location, and magnitude of induced fault slip events. We evaluate the impact of plasticity on reservoir pressure, deformation, induced stress, and fault slip by comparing infinitesimal strain elastic and finite strain poro-elastoplastic models. For real-world applications, we consider different scenarios where the reservoir is either mechanically weaker or stronger than the caprock. We analyze the stress evolution as a function of the change in reservoir pressure to understand the role of contrast in reservoir and caprock elastic moduli on geomechanical stability. The results show that the poroplastic reservoir exhibits larger vertical deformation and delayed slip than the poroelastic reservoir after the same amount of oil production. For the same amount of pressure drop, a reservoir with a smaller modulus than the caprock displays a larger vertical displacement and an earlier onset of both plastic failure and fault slip. For a reservoir with a larger modulus than the caprock, vertical displacement is larger on the reservoir top boundary and smaller on the ground surface, and a higher pressure drop is needed to induce plastic failure and fault slip.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2021

Block Tectonics across Western Tibet and Multi-Millennial Recurrence of Great Earthquakes on the Karakax Fault

We report that fault slip rates are critical to quantify continental deformation. Those along the Karakax fault (northwestern Altyn Tagh Fault: ATF) have been debated, even though it is one of Tibet's most outstanding active faults. At Taersa, using LiDAR measurements of terrace and fan riser offsets (~6 to ~500 m) and 10 Be/ 26 Al dating of alluvial surfaces (<210 ka), we obtain a late Quaternary slip rate of ~2.5 ± 0.5 mm/yr. This doubles the ~2.6 ± 0.5 mm/yr rate time span found to the east and west. We interpret the ~150 km-long, free-faced rupture along the fault to be that of the M ~ 7.6 event felt in Hotan in 1882. Characteristic slip (~6 m) during four large earthquakes since ~10 ka implies a ~2500 ± 500 years return time. A ~3 mm/yr rate is consistent with the ~80 km offset of the Karakax river since uplift of the West Kunlun range and sediment deposition in the Tarim foreland accelerated, ~24 Ma ago. The faster slip rate (~10.5 mm/yr) on the central ATF matches the sum of those along the reactivated West Tibetan terrane boundaries (Karakax and Longmu-Gozha Co faults) at the Uzatagh triple junction (~36°N, 83°E). The abrupt termination and altitude drop of the Karakorum range where the Longmu Co and Karakorum faults meet (Angmong junction), also reflect triple junction kinematics. Such localized changes account for the rise of the Karakorum and West Kunlun ranges and support lithospheric block tectonics rather than diffusely distributed deformation.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Automatic speech recognition predicts contemporaneous earthquake fault displacement

Abstract Significant progress has been made in probing the state of an earthquake fault by applying machine learning to continuous seismic waveforms. The breakthroughs were originally obtained from laboratory shear experiments and numerical simulations of fault shear, then successfully extended to slow-slipping faults. Here we apply the Wav2Vec-2.0 self-supervised framework for automatic speech recognition to continuous seismic signals emanating from a sequence of moderate magnitude earthquakes during the 2018 caldera collapse at the Kīlauea volcano on the island of Hawai’i. We pre-train the Wav2Vec-2.0 model using caldera seismic waveforms and augment the model architecture to predict contemporaneous surface displacement during the caldera collapse sequence, a proxy for fault displacement. We find the model displacement predictions to be excellent. The model is adapted for near-future prediction information and found hints of prediction capability, but the results are not robust. The results demonstrate that earthquake faults emit seismic signatures in a similar manner to laboratory and numerical simulation faults, and artificial intelligence models developed for encoding audio of speech may have important applications in studying active fault zones.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Low-overhead transversal fault tolerance for universal quantum computation

Fast, reliable logical operations are essential for realizing useful quantum computers. By redundantly encoding logical qubits into many physical qubits and using syndrome measurements to detect and correct errors, we can achieve low logical error rates. However, for many practical quantum error correction codes such as the surface code, owing to syndrome measurement errors, standard constructions require multiple extraction rounds—of the order of the code distance d—for fault-tolerant computation, particularly considering fault-tolerant state preparation. Here we show that logical operations can be performed fault-tolerantly with only a constant number of extraction rounds for a broad class of quantum error correction codes, including the surface code with magic state inputs and feedforward, to achieve ‘transversal algorithmic fault tolerance’. Through the combination of transversal operations7 and new strategies for correlated decoding, despite only having access to partial syndrome information, we prove that the deviation from the ideal logical measurement distribution can be made exponentially small in the distance, even if the instantaneous quantum state cannot be made close to a logical codeword because of measurement errors. We supplement this proof with circuit-level simulations in a range of relevant settings, demonstrating the fault tolerance and competitive performance of our approach. Furthermore, our work sheds new light on the theory of quantum fault tolerance and has the potential to reduce the space–time cost of practical fault-tolerant quantum computation by over an order of magnitude.

Zhou, Hengyun [QuEra Computing, Boston, MA (United↗

DOE OSTI2020

Internal structure of the San Jacinto fault zone at the Ramona Reservation, north of Anza, California, from dense array seismic data

SUMMARY We image the internal structure of the San Jacinto fault zone (SJFZ) near Anza, California, with seismic data recorded by two dense arrays (RA and RR) from ∼42 000 local and ∼180 teleseismic events occurring between 2012 and 2017. The RA linear array has short aperture (∼470 m long with 12 strong motion sensors) and recorded for the entire analysed time window, whereas the RR is a large three-component nodal array (97 geophones across a ∼2.4 km × 1.4 km area) that operated for about a month in September–October 2016. The SJFZ at the site contains three near-parallel surface traces F1, F2 and F3 from SW to NE that have accommodated several Mw > 6 earthquakes in the past 15 000 yr. Waveform changes in the fault normal direction indicate structural discontinuities that are consistent with the three fault surface traces. Relative slowness from local events and delay time analysis of teleseismic arrivals in the fault normal direction suggest a slower SW side than the NE with a core damage zone between F1 and F2. This core damage zone causes ∼0.05 s delay at stations RR26–31 in the teleseismic P arrivals compared with the SW-most station, and generates both P- and S-type fault zone trapped waves. Inversion of S trapped waves indicates the core damaged structure is ∼100 m wide, ∼4 km deep with a Q value of ∼20 and 40 per cent S-wave velocity reduction compared with bounding rocks. Fault zone head waves observed at stations SW of F3 indicate a local bimaterial interface that separates the locally faster NE block from the broad damage zone in the SW at shallow depth and merges with a deep interface that separates the regionally faster NE block from rocks to the SW with slower velocities at greater depth. The multiscale structural components observed at the site are related to the geological and earthquake rupture history at the site, and provide important information on the preferred NW propagation of earthquake ruptures on the San Jacinto fault.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗

DOE OSTI2023

En echelon faults reactivated by wastewater disposal near Musreau Lake, Alberta

We use machine-learning and cross-correlation techniques to enhance earthquake detectability by two magnitude units for the earthquake sequence near Musreau Lake, Alberta, which is induced by wastewater disposal. This deep catalogue reveals a series of en echelon ~N–S oriented strike-slip faults that are favourably oriented for reactivation. These faults require only ~0.6 MPa overpressure for triggering to occur. Earthquake activity occurs in bursts, or episodes; episodes restricted to the largest fault tend to have earthquakes starting near the southern end (distant from injectors) and progressing northwards (towards the injectors). While most events are concentrated along these ~N–S oriented faults, we also delineate smaller faults. Together, these findings suggest pore pressure as the triggering mechanism, where a time-dependent increase in pore pressure likely caused these faults to progressively reawaken. Analysis of the ‘next record-breaking event’, a statistical model that forecasts the sequencing of earthquake magnitudes, suggests that the next largest event would be M L ~4.3. The seismically illuminated length of the largest fault indicates potential magnitudes as large as M w 5.3.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Fault-Tolerant Operation of Bosonic Qubits with Discrete-Variable Ancillae

Fault-tolerant quantum computation with bosonic qubits often necessitates the use of noisy discrete-variable ancillae. In this work, we establish a comprehensive and practical fault-tolerance framework for such a hybrid system and synthesize it with fault-tolerant protocols by combining bosonic quantum error correction (QEC) and advanced quantum control techniques. We introduce essential building blocks of error-corrected gadgets by leveraging ancilla-assisted bosonic operations using a generalized variant of path-independent quantum control. Using these building blocks, we construct a universal set of error-corrected gadgets that tolerate a single-photon loss and an arbitrary ancilla fault for four-legged cat qubits. Notably, our construction requires only dispersive coupling between bosonic modes and ancillae, as well as beam-splitter coupling between bosonic modes, both of which have been experimentally demonstrated with strong strengths and high accuracy. Moreover, each error-corrected bosonic qubit is comprised of only a single bosonic mode and a three-level ancilla, featuring the hardware efficiency of bosonic QEC in the full fault-tolerant setting. We numerically demonstrate the feasibility of our schemes using current experimental parameters in the circuit-QED platform. Finally, we present a hardware-efficient architecture for fault-tolerant quantum computing by concatenating the four-legged cat qubits with an outer qubit code utilizing only beam-splitter couplings. Our estimates suggest that the overall noise threshold can be reached using existing hardware. These developed fault-tolerant schemes extend beyond their applicability to four-legged cat qubits and can be adapted for other rotation-symmetrical codes, offering a promising avenue toward scalable and robust quantum computation with bosonic qubits. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Physics↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Typology of Quantum-Classical Faults

This paper introduces an extended taxonomy of faults specific to hybrid quantum-classical systems, addressing the unique challenges that arise from integrating quantum accelerators into high-performance computing (HPC) infrastructures. Building on the foundational fault classification by Avizienis et al., we incorporate fault types unique to quantum computing-such as qubit decoherence, spontaneous gate errors, and photon loss-alongside traditional and human-induced faults including development errors, operational mistakes, and malicious attacks. Our taxonomy classifies faults by their origin (natural vs. human-made), intent (accidental, deliberate non-malicious, or malicious), system boundaries (internal vs. external), and persistence (transient to permanent). We also explore how different architectural integration patterns-ranging from tight coupling to loose on-premise and cloud-based configurations-shape the manifestation and propagation of faults. These scenarios are analyzed in terms of timing mismatches, interface inconsistencies, and security threats such as data tampering and denial-of-service attacks. Through this fault-centric lens, we aim to support the co-design of dependable quantum-classical systems and highlight the critical role that integration strategies play in ensuring reproducibility, resilience, and security across hybrid computing platforms.

Giusto, Edorado [University of Naples Federico II,↗

DOE OSTI2021

Superconducting Radio-frequency Cavity Fault Classification Using Machine Learning at Jefferson Laboratory

We report on the development of machine learning models for classifying C100 superconducting radiofrequency (SRF) cavity faults in the Continuous Electron Beam Accelerator Facility (CEBAF) at Jefferson Lab. Of the 418 SRF cavities in CEBAF, 96 are designed with a digital low-level RF system configured such that a cavity fault triggers recordings of RF signals for each of eight cavities in the cryomodule. Subject matter experts analyze the collected time-series data and identify which of the eight cavities faulted first and classify the type of fault. This information is used to find trends and strategically deploy mitigations to problematic cryomodules. However, manually labeling the data is laborious and time-consuming. By leveraging machine learning, near real-time - rather than postmortem - identification of the offending cavity and classification of the fault type has been implemented. We discuss the performance of the machine learning models during a recent physics run. We also discuss efforts for further insights into fault types through unsupervised learning techniques and present preliminary work on cavity and fault prediction using data collected prior to a failure event.

Tennant, C. D.↗

DOE OSTI2024

SRF CAVITY FAULT PREDICTION USING DEEP LEARNING AT JEFFERSON LAB

In this study, we present a deep learning-based pipeline for predicting superconducting radio-frequency (SRF) cavity faults in the Continuous Electron Beam Accelera-tor Facility (CEBAF) at Jefferson Lab. We leverage pre-fault RF signals from C100-type cavities and employ deep learning to predict faults in advance of their onset. We train a binary classifier model to distinguish between stable and impending fault signals. Test results show accuracies exceeding 99% for distinguishing between normal signals and pre-fault signals from a class of more slowly developing fault types, such as microphonics. We describe results from a proof-of-principle demonstration on a realistic, imbalanced data set and report performance metrics. Encouraging results suggest that future SRF systems could leverage this framework and implement measures to mitigate the onset in more slowly developing fault types.

Rahman, M.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Gray-Box Fault Models and Applications for Low-Carbon Emission CO 2 Refrigeration Systems

CO 2 refrigeration systems have attracted more attentions in recent years because of their zero-carbon emission advantages compared with traditional refrigerants. These systems are widely used in certain commercial buildings such as supermarkets. However, very limited energy studies have been done for such refrigeration systems under faults. This study investigated five common faults for supermarket transcritical CO 2 refrigeration systems with display cases. The following major tasks were implemented for this study. (1) Five fault models (gray-box format) regarding the power consumption and supply air temperature were proposed for low- and high-temperature display cases, respectively. The models cover: ice accumulation on evaporator coil, evaporator fan partial failure, expansion valve failure, display door open, and condenser blockage. (2) These fault models were calibrated with field tests, and the modeling accuracies were in good agreement with measurement datasets. (3) The proposed fault models demonstrated more than 90% of fault detection for Fault Detection and Diagnostics (FDD) purposes for both field measurement and simulated data.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2026

Seismic Elastic Double-Beam Characterization of Faults and Fractures for CO₂ Storage Site Selection

Site characterization for underground injection and storage of gigatonne-scale CO₂ requires reliable and cost-effective methods to detect and characterize faults and fractures and to assess their stress state and fault activation potential. This is critical, as wastewater injection and disposal have been shown to activate faults and induce earthquakes, and CO₂ leakage remains a key concern for long-term storage. In this project, we developed seismic methods to detect and characterize large-scale sedimentary and crystalline basement faults and associated small-scale fractures below conventional seismic imaging resolution using multicomponent (9C) surface seismic data. Machine learning was used to automatically interpret large-scale faults, providing key information for estimating the maximum magnitude of potential induced earthquakes. High-fidelity imaging was achieved by exploiting redundancy across multiple elastic wave modes, where independent images from different modes and frequencies cross-validate each other. We also used our nonlinear signal comparison (NLSC) method for ground roll removal, improving data quality in complex near-surface conditions. The methods were validated using field data acquired in central Montana. Results show that basement faults extend into the sedimentary section and that small-scale fractures are widespread above the basement. The inferred stress orientation is consistent with regional stress data, and the estimated maximum induced earthquake magnitude is small (Mw ~2.3). The developed workflow provides a practical approach for fault and fracture characterization and for assessing induced seismicity and leakage risk. It is directly applicable to CO₂ storage site selection and to other subsurface systems.

02 PETROLEUM↗

DOE OSTI2022

Incipient Sensor Fault Impacts on Building Performance Through HVAC Controls: A Pilot Study

Sensors are crucial input components for HVAC controls. Studies show faults are common for buidings and HVAC systems. Sensors with faults will compromise the control perfrormance regardless how advanced of the control algorithms. Majority studies assume the sensor fault to be constant the whole year. In reality, the sensor faults might evolve or develop with time, which is essentially the incipient (i.e. evolving) fault. The incipient sensor faults impacts remain a research gap. This study aims to investigate the incipient sensor fault impacts to control sequences of multi-zone VAV boxes and AHU system following the ASHRAE Guideline 36-2018: High-Performance Sequences of Operation.

Li, Yanfei↗

DOE OSTI2024

Experimental Investigation of Steel-Borne Acoustic Pulses for Fault Pinpointing in Pipe-Type Cable Systems: A Scaled-Down Model Approach

Pipe-type cable systems, including high-pressure fluid-filled (HPFF) and high-pressure gas-filled cables, are widely used for underground high-voltage transmission. These systems consist of insulated conductor cables within steel pipes, filled with pressurized fluids or gases for insulation and cooling. Despite their reliability, faults can occur due to insulation degradation, thermal expansion, and environmental factors. As many circuits exceed their 40-year design life, efficient fault localization becomes crucial. Fault location involves prelocation and pinpointing. Therefore, a novel pinpointing approach for pipe-type cable systems is proposed, utilizing accelerometers mounted on a steel pipe to capture fault-induced acoustic signals and employing the time difference of arrival method to accurately pinpoint the location of the fault. The experimental investigations utilized a scaled-down HPFF pipe-type cable system setup, featuring a carbon steel pipe, high-frequency accelerometers, and both mechanical and capacitive discharge methods for generating acoustic pulses. The tests evaluated the propagation velocity, attenuation, and pinpointing accuracy with the pipe in various embedment conditions. The experimental results demonstrated accurate fault pinpointing in the centimeter range, even when the pipe was fully embedded, with the acoustic pulse velocities aligning closely with the theoretical values. These experimental investigation findings highlight the potential of this novel acoustic pinpointing technique to improve fault localization in underground systems, enhance grid reliability, and reduce outage duration. Further research is recommended to validate this approach in full-scale systems.

Moutassem, Zaki↗

NASA NTRS1973

The application of Skylab imagery to analysis of fault tectonics and earthquake hazards in the Peninsular Ranges, southern California

The author has identified the following significant results. Frame 114 of the Salton Sea area was studied in all bands to analyze the appearance of important faults. These faults were also studied in the field as well as from aircraft and in aerial photography. The San Andreas/Banning and the Mission Creek faults can be traced across Coachella Valley even though they are buried by alluvium. The faults form ground water barriers and the near surface ground water on the northeast sides of the faults supports patches of vegetation (mesquite and palms) in an otherwise barren desert. These oases are best seen in band 3 (color IR). Otherwise, faults are best seen in band 4 (aerial color). Of the B and W bands, 5 (red) is best for delineating faults. Bands 1 and 2 are excessively grainy and the resolution is considerably inferior to the other bands.

Merifield, P. M.↗

NASA NTRS1974

On-line diagnosis of unrestricted faults

A formal model for the study of on-line diagnosis is introduced and used to investigate the diagnosis of unrestricted faults. A fault of a system S is considered to be a transformation of S into another system S' at some time tau. The resulting faulty system is taken to be the system which looks like S up to time tau, and like S' thereafter. Notions of fault tolerance error are defined in terms of the resulting system being able to mimic some desired behavior as specified by a system similar to S. A notion of on-line diagnosis is formulated which involves an external detector and a maximum time delay within which every error caused by a fault in a prescribed set must be detected. It is shown that if a system is on-line diagnosable for the unrestricted set of faults then the detector is at least as complex, in terms of state set size, as the specification. The use of inverse systems for the diagnosis of unrestricted faults is considered. A partial characterization of those inverses which can be used for unrestricted fault diagnosis is obtained.

Meyer, J. F.↗

NASA NTRS1974

Fault tectonics and earthquake hazards in the Peninsular Ranges, Southern California

The author has identified the following significant results. ERTS and Skylab images reveal a number of prominent lineaments in the basement terrane of the Peninsular Ranges, Southern California. The major, well-known, active, northwest trending, right-slip faults are well displayed, but northeast and west to west-northwest trending lineaments are also present. Study of large-scale airphotos followed by field investigations have shown that several of these lineaments represent previously unmapped faults. Pitches of striations on shear surfaces of the northeast and west trending faults indicate oblique-slip movement; data are insufficient to determine the net-slip. These faults are restricted to the pre-Tertiary basement terrane and are truncated by the major northwest trending faults; therefore, they may have formed in response to an earlier stress system. Future work should be directed toward determining whether the northeast and west trending faults are related to the presently active stress system or to an older inactive system, because this question relates to the earthquake risk in the vicinity of these faults.

Merifield, P. M.↗

NASA NTRS1983

A renormalization group model for the stick-slip behavior of faults

A fault which is treated as an array of asperities with a prescribed statistical distribution of strengths is described. For a linear array the stress is transferred to a single adjacent asperity and for a two dimensional array to three ajacent asperities. It is shown that the solutions bifurcate at a critical applied stress. At stresses less than the critical stress virtually no asperities fail on a large scale and the fault is locked. At the critical stress the solution bifurcates and asperity failure cascades away from the nucleus of failure. It is found that the stick slip behavior of most faults can be attributed to the distribution of asperities on the fault. The observation of stick slip behavior on faults rather than stable sliding, why the observed level of seismicity on a locked fault is very small, and why the stress on a fault is less than that predicted by a standard value of the coefficient of friction are outlined.

Smalley, R. F., Jr.↗