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At least 343 records · Page 19
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2006

Forecasting Coronal Mass Ejections from Line-of-Sight Magnetograms

We show that the length of strong-gradient, strong-field main neutral line, L(sub SGM), which can be measured from line-of-sight magnetograms such as from SOHO/MDI, is both a measure of active-region nonpotentiality and a useful predictor of an active region's future CME productivity. To demonstrate that L(sub SGM) is a nonpotentiality measure, we show that it is strongly correlated with a direct measure of nonpotentiality. For an appropriate choice of a threshold value, an active region s measured LsGM can be used as a predictor of whether the active region will produce a CME within a few days after the magnetogram. For our set of 36 MSFC vector magnetograms of bipolar active regions, L(sub SGM) is found to have a success rate of 80% for prediction of CME productivity in the 0-2 day window. The development of L(sub SGM) as a method of measuring nonpotentiality for forecasting large, fast CMEs from present space based assets is of value to NASA's Space Exploration Initiative (manned missions to the Moon and Mars)

Falconer, D. A.↗
NASA NTRS2006

The Swift/BAT Hard X-Ray Survey

The BAT instrument on Swift is a wide field (70 deg. '100 deg.) coded aperture instrument with a CdZnTe detector array sensitive to energies of 14-200 keV. Each day, the BAT survey typically covers 60% of the sky to a detection limit of 30 millicrab. BAT makes hard X-ray light curves of similar sensitivity and coverage to the X-ray light curves from XTE/ASM, but in an energy range where sources show remarkably different behavior. Integrating the BAT data produces an all sky map with a source detection limit at 15 months of a few 10(exp -11) ergs per square centimeter per second, depending on the exposure. This is the first uniform all-sky survey at energies high enough to be unaffected by absorption since HEAO 1 in 1977-8. BAT has detected greater than 200 AGN and greater than 180 galactic sources. At high galactic latitudes, the BAT sources are usually easy to identify, but many are heavily absorbed and there are a few quite surprising identifications. The BAT selected galaxies can be used to calculate LogN/LogS and the luminosity function for AGN which are complete and free from common systematics. Several crucial parameters for understanding the cosmic hard x-ray background are now determined.

Tueller, Jack↗
NASA NTRS2007

Characterization and Evolution of the Swift X-ray Telescope Instrumental Background

The X-ray telescope (XRT) on board the Swift Gamma Ray Burst Explorer has successfully operated since the spacecraft launch on 20 November 2004, automatically locating GRB afterglows, measuring their spectra and lightcurves and performing observations of high-energy sources. In this work we investigate the properties of the instrumental background, focusing on its dynamic behavior on both long and short timescales. The operational temperature of the CCD is the main factor that influences the XRT background level. After the failure of the Swift active on-board temperature control system, the XRT detector now operates at a temperature range between -75C and -45C thanks to a passive cooling Heat Rejection System. We report on the long-term effects on the background caused by radiation, consisting mainly of proton irradiation in Swift's low Earth orbit and on the short-term effects of transits through the South Atlantic Anomaly (SAA), which expose the detector to periods of intense proton flux. We have determined the fraction of the detector background that is due to the internal, instrumental background and the part that is due to unresolved astrophysical sources (the cosmic X-ray background) by investigating the degree of vignetting of the measured background and comparing it to the expected value from calibration data.

Hill, Joanne↗
NASA NTRS2008

The Foggy EUV Corona and Coronal Heating by MHD Waves from Explosive Reconnection Events

In 0.5 arcsec/pixel TRACE coronal EUV images, the corona rooted in active regions that are at the limb and are not flaring is seen to consist of (1) a complex array of discrete loops and plumes embedded in (2) a diffuse ambient component that shows no fine structure and gradually fades with height. For each of two not-flaring active regions, found that the diffuse component is (1) approximately isothermal and hydrostatic and (2) emits well over half of the total EUV luminosity of the active-region corona. Here, from a TRACE Fe XII coronal image of another not-flaring active region, the large sunspot active region AR 10652 when it was at the west limb on 30 July 2004, we separate the diffuse component from the discrete loop component by spatial filtering, and find that the diffuse component has about 60% of the total luminosity. If under much higher spatial resolution than that of TRACE (e. g., the 0.1 arcsec/pixel resolution of the Hi-C sounding-rocket experiment proposed by J. W. Cirtain et al), most of the diffuse component remains diffuse rather being resolved into very narrow loops and plumes, this will raise the possibility that the EUV corona in active regions consists of two basically different but comparably luminous components: one being the set of discrete bright loops and plumes and the other being a truly diffuse component filling the space between the discrete loops and plumes. This dichotomy would imply that there are two different but comparably powerful coronal heating mechanisms operating in active regions, one for the distinct loops and plumes and another for the diffuse component. We present a scenario in which (1) each discrete bright loop or plume is a flux tube that was recently reconnected in a burst of reconnection, and (2) the diffuse component is heated by MHD waves that are generated by these reconnection events and by other fine-scale explosive reconnection events, most of which occur in and below the base of the corona where they are seen as UV explosive events, EUV blinkers, and type II spicules. These MHD waves propagate across field lines and dissipate, heating the plasma in the field between the bright loops and plumes.

Moore, Ron L.↗
NASA NTRS2008

The Twist Limit for Bipolar Active Regions

We present new evidence that further supports the standard idea that active regions are emerged magnetic-flux-rope omega loops. When the axial magnetic twist of a cylindrical flux rope exceeds a critical amount, the flux rope becomes unstable to kinking, and the excess axial twist is converted into writhe twist by the kinking. This suggests that, if active regions are emerged omega loops, then (1) no active region should have magnetic twist much above the limit set by kinking, (2) active regions having twist near the limit should often arise from kinked omega loops, and (3) since active regions having large delta sunspots are outstandingly twisted, these arise from kinked omega loops and should have twist near the limit for kinking. From each of 36 vector magnetograms of bipolar active regions, we have measured (1) the total flux of the vertical field above 100 G, (2) the area covered by this flux, and (3) the net electric current that arches over the polarity inversion line. These three quantities yield an estimate of the axial magnetic twist in a simple model cylindrical flux rope that corresponds to the top of the active region s hypothetical omega loop prior to emergence. In all 36 cases, the estimated twist is below the critical limit for kinking. The 11 most twisted active regions (1) have estimated twist within a factor of approx.3 of the limit, and (2) include all of our 6 active regions having large delta sunspots. Thus, our observed twist limit for bipolar active regions is in good accord with active regions being emerged omega loops.

Moore, Ron↗
NASA NTRS2008

The CME Flare Arcade and the Width of the CME in the Outer Corona

Moore, Sterling, & Suess (2007, ApJ, 668, 1221) present evidence that (1) a CME is typically a magnetic bubble, a low-beta gplasmoid with legs h having roughly the 3D shape of a light bulb, and (2) in the outer corona the CME plasmoid is in lateral pressure equilibrium with the ambient magnetic field. They present three CMEs observed by SOHO/LASCO, each from a very different source located near the limb. One of these CMEs came from a compact ejective eruption from a small part of a sunspot active region, another came from a large quiet-region filament eruption, and the third CME, an extremely large and fast one, was produced in tandem with an X20 flare arcade that was centered on a huge delta sunspot. Each of these CMEs had more or less the classic lightbulb silhouette and attained a constant heliocentric angular width in the outer corona. This indicates that the CME plasmoid attained lateral magnetic pressure balance with the ambient radial magnetic field in the outer corona. This lateral pressure balance, together with the standard scenario for CME production by the eruption of a sheared-core magnetic arcade, yields the following simple estimate of the strength B(sub Flare) of the magnetic field in the flare arcade produced together with the CME: B(sub Flare) 1.4(theta CME/theta Flare)sup 2 G, where theta (sub CME) is the heliocentric angular width of the CME plasmoid in the outer corona and theta (sub Flare) is the heliocentric angular width of the full-grown flare arcade. Conversely, theta (sub CME) approximately equal to (R(sub Sun)sup -1(phi(sub Flare)/1.4)sup 1/2 radians, where Flare is the magnetic flux covered by the full-grown flare arcade. In addition to presenting the three CMEs of Moore, Sterling, & Suess (2007) and their agreement with this relation between CME and Flare, we present a further empirical test of this relation. For CMEs that erupt from active regions, the co-produced flare arcade seldom if ever covers the entire active region: if AR is the total magnetic flux of the active region, Flare . AR, and we predict that CME. (R(sub Sun))sup -1(theta AR/1.4)sup 1/2 radians. For a random sample of 31 CMEs that erupted from active regions within 30 of the limb, for each CME we have measured CME from LASCO/C3 and have measured AR from a SOHO/MDI magnetogram of the source active region when it was within 30 of disk center. We find that each CME obeys the above predicted inequality, none having width greater than half of the upper bound given by theta(sub AR). Thus, an active region's magnetic flux content, together with its location on the solar disk, largely determines whether the active region can possibly produce a CME that is wide enough to intercept the Earth.

Moore, Ron↗
NASA NTRS2008

The Flare/CME Connection

We present evidence supporting the view that, while many flares are produced by a confined magnetic explosion that does not produce a CME, every CME is produced by an ejective magnetic explosion that also produces a flare. The evidence is that the observed heliocentric angular width of the full-blown CME plasmoid in the outer corona (at 3 to 20 solar radii) is about that predicted by the standard model for CME production, from the amount of magnetic flux covered by the co-produced flare arcade. In the standard model, sheared and twisted sigmoidal field in the core of an initially closed magnetic arcade erupts. As it erupts, tether-cutting reconnection, starting between the legs of the erupting sigmoid and continuing between the merging stretched legs of the enveloping arcade, simultaneously produces a growing flare arcade and unleashes the erupting sigmoid and arcade to become the low-beta plasmoid (magnetic bubble) that becomes the CME. The flare arcade is the downward product of the reconnection and the CME plasmoid is the upward product. The unleashed, expanding CME plasmoid is propelled into the outer corona and solar wind by its own magnetic field pushing on the surrounding field in the inner and outer corona. This tether-cutting scenario predicts that the amount of magnetic flux in the full-blown CME plasmoid nearly equals that covered by the full-grown flare arcade. This equality predicts (1) the field strength in the flare region from the ratio of the angular width of the CME in the outer corona to angular width of the full-grown flare arcade, and (2) an upper bound on the angular width of the CME in the outer corona from the total magnetic flux in the active region from which the CME explodes. We show that these predictions are fulfilled by observed CMEs. This agreement validates the standard model. The model explains (1) why most CMEs have much greater angular widths than their co-produced flares, and (2) why the radial path of a CME in the outer corona can be laterally far offset from the co-produced flare.

Moore, Ron↗
NASA NTRS2009

Suppression of Active-Region CME Production by the Presence of Other Active Regions

From the SOHO mission s data base of MDI full-disk magnetograms spanning solar cycle 23, we have obtained a set of ~40,000 magnetograms of ~1,300 active regions, tracking each active region across the 30 degree central solar disk. Each active region magnetogram is cropped from the full-disk magnetogram by an automated code. The cadence is 96 minutes. From each active-region magnetogram, we have measured two whole-active-region magnetic quantities: (1) the magnetic size of the active region (the active region s total magnetic flux), and (2) a gauge of the active region s free magnetic energy (part of the free energy is released in the production of a flare and/or CME eruption). From NOAA Flare/CME catalogs, we have obtained the event (Flare/CME/SEP event) production history of each active region. Using all these data, we find that for each type of eruptive event, an active region s expected rate of event production increases as a power law of our gauge of active-region free magnetic energy. We have also found that, among active regions having nearly the same free energy, the rate of the CME production is less when there are many other active regions on the disk than when there are few or none, but there is no significant discernible suppression of the rate of flare production. This indicates that the presence of other active regions somehow tends to inhibit an active region s flare-producing magnetic explosions from becoming CMEs, contrary to the expectation from the breakout model for the production of CMEs.

Falconer, David↗
NASA NTRS2010

Blowout Jets: Hinode X-Ray Jets that Don't Fit the Standard Model

Nearly half of all H-alpha macrospicules in polar coronal holes appear to be miniature filament eruptions. This suggests that there is a large class of X-ray jets in which the jet-base magnetic arcade undergoes a blowout eruption as in a CME, instead of remaining static as in most solar X-ray jets, the standard jets that fit the model advocated by Shibata. Along with a cartoon depicting the standard model, we present a cartoon depicting the signatures expected of blowout jets in coronal X-ray images. From Hinode/XRT movies and STEREO/EUVI snapshots in polar coronal holes, we present examples of (1) X-ray jets that fit the standard model, and (2) X-ray jets that do not fit the standard model but do have features appropriate for blowout jets. These features are (1) a flare arcade inside the jet-base arcade in addition to the small flare arcade (bright point) outside that standard jets have, (2) a filament of cool (T is approximately 80,000K) plasma that erupts from the core of the jetbase arcade, and (3) an extra jet strand that should not be made by the reconnection for standard jets but could be made by reconnection between the ambient unipolar open field and the opposite-polarity leg of the filament-carrying flux-rope core field of the erupting jet-base arcade. We therefore infer that these non-standard jets are blowout jets, jets made by miniature versions of the sheared-core-arcade eruptions that make CMEs

Moore, Ronald L.↗
NASA NTRS2010

A Tool for Empirical Forecasting of Major Flares, Coronal Mass Ejections, and Solar Particle Events from a Proxy of Active-Region Free Magnetic Energy

This presentation describes a new forecasting tool developed for and is currently being tested by NASA s Space Radiation Analysis Group (SRAG) at JSC, which is responsible for the monitoring and forecasting of radiation exposure levels of astronauts. The new software tool is designed for the empirical forecasting of M and X-class flares, coronal mass ejections, as well as solar energetic particle events. Its algorithm is based on an empirical relationship between the various types of events rates and a proxy of the active region s free magnetic energy, determined from a data set of approx.40,000 active-region magnetograms from approx.1,300 active regions observed by SOHO/MDI that have known histories of flare, coronal mass ejection, and solar energetic particle event production. The new tool automatically extracts each strong-field magnetic areas from an MDI full-disk magnetogram, identifies each as an NOAA active region, and measures a proxy of the active region s free magnetic energy from the extracted magnetogram. For each active region, the empirical relationship is then used to convert the free magnetic energy proxy into an expected event rate. The expected event rate in turn can be readily converted into the probability that the active region will produce such an event in a given forward time window. Descriptions of the datasets, algorithm, and software in addition to sample applications and a validation test are presented. Further development and transition of the new tool in anticipation of SDO/HMI is briefly discussed.

Barghouty, A. F.↗
NASA NTRS2010

A New Tool for Forecasting Solar Drivers of Severe Space Weather

This poster describes a tool that is designed to forecast solar drivers for severe space weather. Since most severe space weather is driven by Solar flares and Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) - the strongest of these originate in active regions and are driven by the release of coronal free magnetic energy and There is a positive correlation between an active region's free magnetic energy and the likelihood of flare and CME production therefore we can use this positive correlation as the basis of our empirical space weather forecasting tool. The new tool takes a full disk Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) magnetogram, identifies strong magnetic field areas, identifies these with NOAA active regions, and measures a free-magnetic-energy proxy. It uses an empirically derived forecasting function to convert the free-magnetic-energy proxy to an expected event rate. It adds up the expected event rates from all active regions on the disk to forecast the expected rate and probability of each class of events -- X-class flares, X&M class flares, CMEs, fast CMEs, and solar particle events (SPEs).

Adams, J. H.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Why S, Not X, Marks the Spot for CME/Flare Eruptions

For any major CME/flare eruption: I. The field that erupts is an arcade in which the interior is greatly sheared and twisted. Most of the free magnetic energy to be released: a) Is in the shear and twist of the interior field. b) Is Not due to a big current sheet. The eruption is unleashed by reconnection at a growing current sheet. The current sheet is still little when the reconnection turns on. The unleashed eruption then makes the current sheet much bigger by building it up faster than the reconnection can tear it down. II. Most X-ray jets work the opposite way: a) Tapped free energy is in the field of a pre-jet current sheet. b) Current sheet built by small arcade emerging into ambient field. c) Current sheet still much smaller than the arcade when reconnection turns on and tears it down, producing a jet. III. These rules reflect the low-beta condition in the eruptive magnetic field

Moore, Ronald L.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Dichotomy of Solar Coronal Jets: Standard Jets and Blowout Jets

By examining many X-ray jets in Hinode/XRT coronal X-ray movies of the polar coronal holes, we found that there is a dichotomy of polar X-ray jets. About two thirds fit the standard reconnection picture for coronal jets, and about one third are another type. We present observations indicating that the non-standard jets are counterparts of erupting-loop H alpha macrospicules, jets in which the jet-base magnetic arch undergoes a miniature version of the blowout eruptions that produce major CMEs. From the coronal X-ray movies we present in detail two typical standard X-ray jets and two typical blowout X-ray jets that were also caught in He II 304 Angstrom snapshots from STEREO/EUVI. The distinguishing features of blowout X-ray jets are (1) X-ray brightening inside the base arch in addition to the outside bright point that standard jets have, (2) blowout eruption of the base arch's core field, often carrying a filament of cool (T ~10(exp 4) - 10(exp 5) K) plasma, and (3) an extra jet-spire strand rooted close to the bright point. We present cartoons showing how reconnection during blowout eruption of the base arch could produce the observed features of blowout X-ray jets. We infer that (1) the standard-jet/blowout-jet dichotomy of coronal jets results from the dichotomy of base arches that do not have and base arches that do have enough shear and twist to erupt open, and (2) there is a large class of spicules that are standard jets and a comparably large class of spicules that are blowout jets.

Moore, R. L.↗
NASA NTRS2011

CloudSat Reflectivity Data Visualization Inside Hurricanes

Animations and other outreach products have been created and released to the public quickly after the CloudSat spacecraft flew over hurricanes. The automated script scans through the CloudSat quicklook data to find significant atmospheric moisture content. Once such a region is found, data from multiple sources is combined to produce the data products and the animations. KMZ products are quickly generated from the quicklook data for viewing in Google Earth and other tools. Animations are also generated to show the atmospheric moisture data in context with the storm cloud imagery. Global images from GOES satellites are shown to give context. The visualization provides better understanding of the interior of the hurricane storm clouds, which is difficult to observe directly. The automated process creates the finished animation in the High Definition (HD) video format for quick release to the media and public.

visualization↗
NASA NTRS2011

Real-Time CME Forecasting Using HMI Active-Region Magnetograms and Flare History

We have recently developed a method of predicting an active region s probability of producing a CME, an X-class Flare, an M-class Flare, or a Solar Energetic Particle Event from a free-energy proxy measured from SOHO/MDI line-of-sight magnetograms. This year we have added three major improvements to our forecast tool: 1) Transition from MDI magnetogram to SDO/HMI magnetogram allowing us near-real-time forecasts, 2) Automation of acquisition and measurement of HMI magnetograms giving us near-real-time forecasts (no older than 2 hours), and 3) Determination of how to improve forecast by using the active region s previous flare history in combination with its free-energy proxy. HMI was turned on in May 2010 and MDI was turned off in April 2011. Using the overlap period, we have calibrated HMI to yield what MDI would measure. This is important since the value of the free-energy proxy used for our forecast is resolution dependent, and the forecasts are made from results of a 1996-2004 database of MDI observations. With near-real-time magnetograms from HMI, near-real-time forecasts are now possible. We have augmented the code so that it continually acquires and measures new magnetograms as they become available online, and updates the whole-sun forecast from the coming day. The next planned improvement is to use an active region s previous flare history, in conjunction with its free-energy proxy, to forecast the active region s event rate. It has long been known that active regions that have produced flares in the past are likely to produce flares in the future, and that active regions that are nonpotential (have large free-energy) are more likely to produce flares in the future. This year we have determined that persistence of flaring is not just a reflection of an active region s free energy. In other words, after controlling for free energy, we have found that active regions that have flared recently are more likely to flare in the future.

Falconer, David↗
NASA NTRS2011

The July 2010 Outburst of the NLS1 PMN J0948+0022

We report about the multiwavelength campaign on the Narrow-Line Seyfert 1 (NLS1) Galaxy PMN J0948+0022 (z = 0.5846) performed in 2010 July-September and triggered by high activity as measured by Fermi/LAT. The peak luminosity in the 0.1 - 100 GeV energy band exceeded, for the first time in this type of source, the value of 1048 erg/s, a level comparable to the most powerful blazars. The comparison of the spectral energy distribution of the NLS1 PMN J0948+0022 with that of a typical blazar like 3C 273 shows that the power emitted at gamma rays is extreme.

Foschini, L.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Unusual Central Engine Activity in the Double Burst GRB 110709B

The double burst, GRB 110709B, triggered Swift/BAT twice at 21:32:39 UT and 21:43:45 UT, respectively, on 9 July 2011. This is the first time we observed a GRB with two BAT triggers. In this paper, we present simultaneous Swift and Konus-WIND observations of this unusual GRB and its afterglow. If the two events are from the same physical origin, their different time-dependent spectral evolution suggest they must belong to different episodes of the central engine, which may be a magnetar-to-BH accretion system.

Zhang, Bin-Bin↗
NASA NTRS2011

Observation and Spectral Measurements of the Crab Nebula with Milagro

The Crab Nebula was detected with the Milagro experiment at a statistical significance of 17 standard deviations over the lifetime of the experiment. The experiment was sensitive to approximately 100 GeV - 100 TeV gamma ray air showers by observing the particle footprint reaching the ground. The fraction of detectors recording signals from photons at the ground is a suitable proxy for the energy of the primary particle and has been used to measure the photon energy spectrum of the Crab Nebula between ~1 and ~100 TeV. The TeV emission is believed to be caused by inverse-Compton up-scattering scattering of ambient photons by an energetic electron population. The location of a Te V steepening or cutoff in the energy spectrum reveals important details about the underlying electron population. We describe the experiment and the technique for distinguishing gamma-ray events from the much more-abundant hadronic events. We describe the calculation of the significance of the excess from the Crab and how the energy spectrum is fit.

Abdo, A. A.↗