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At least 343 records · Page 19
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Trends in surface equivalent potential temperature: A more comprehensive metric for global warming and weather extremes

Significance The Earth has warmed by 1.2 ± 0.1 °C since the preindustrial era. The most common metric to measure the ongoing global warming is surface air temperature since it has long and reliable observational records. However, surface air temperature alone does not fully describe the nature of global warming and its impact on climate and weather extremes. Here we show that surface equivalent potential temperature, which combines the surface air temperature and humidity, is a more comprehensive metric not only for the global warming but also for its impact on climate and weather extremes including tropical deep convection and extreme heat waves. We recommend that it should be used more widely in future climate change studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Extreme drought impacts have been underestimated in grasslands and shrublands globally

Climate change is increasing the frequency and severity of short-term (~1 y) drought events—the most common duration of drought—globally. Yet the impact of this intensification of drought on ecosystem functioning remains poorly resolved. This is due in part to the widely disparate approaches ecologists have employed to study drought, variation in the severity and duration of drought studied, and differences among ecosystems in vegetation, edaphic and climatic attributes that can mediate drought impacts. To overcome these problems and better identify the factors that modulate drought responses, we used a coordinated distributed experiment to quantify the impact of short-term drought on grassland and shrubland ecosystems. With a standardized approach, we imposed ~a single year of drought at 100 sites on six continents. Here we show that loss of a foundational ecosystem function—aboveground net primary production (ANPP)—was 60% greater at sites that experienced statistically extreme drought (1-in-100-y event) vs. those sites where drought was nominal (historically more common) in magnitude (35% vs. 21%, respectively). This reduction in a key carbon cycle process with a single year of extreme drought greatly exceeds previously reported losses for grasslands and shrublands. Our global experiment also revealed high variability in drought response but that relative reductions in ANPP were greater in drier ecosystems and those with fewer plant species. Overall, our results demonstrate with unprecedented rigor that the global impacts of projected increases in drought severity have been significantly underestimated and that drier and less diverse sites are likely to be most vulnerable to extreme drought.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Climatological analysis of tropical cyclone impacts on hydrological extremes in the Mid-Atlantic region of the United States

Abstract Research efforts related to landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) and their hydrological impacts have focused mostly on the continental or regional scales, whereas many coastal management and infrastructure decisions are made at much finer spatial scales. In this context, this study aims to provide local-scale understandings of the climatological characteristics and hydrological impacts of TCs (from 1950 to 2019) over the Mid-Atlantic region defined as the Delaware River Basin (DRB) and Susquehanna River Basin (SRB). The climatological analysis is based on analyzing long-term, spatially distributed observational datasets of hurricane tracks, precipitation, and streamflows. Results suggest that, despite limited contribution of TCs to regional precipitation (<9%), TC is the dominant driver for extreme floods in the southern part of DRB (e.g. tributaries of the Christina River and lower Schuylkill River) and the southwestern portions of SRB (e.g. tributaries of the Lower Susquehanna and Junita River), where TC’s effect on drought alleviation is also comparatively higher. At the basin level, SRB is more susceptible to flooding associated with TCs and prone to drought relative to DRB; however, strong spatial variability of TC’s impact on hydrological extremes is observed within and across the basins. While the TC effect on flood/drought is negligible for the high-elevation, northern part of the region, TC increases the magnitude of the 100 year flood by up to 19.6% in DRB and 53.0% in SRB; the duration of short-term extreme hydrological drought is reduced by TC by up to 25.0% in SRB and 24.7% in DRB, respectively.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Hybrid Dynamic/Steady-State Tool With Protection Simulation for Cascading-Outage Analysis of Extreme Events in Power Systems

The bulk electric power grid is subject to vulnerabilities from component outages, which in certain combinations (extreme events) might lead to cascading outages. Some of these outages can be severe enough to trigger brownouts and blackouts. Much is known about mitigating the first few failures near the beginning of a cascade, but there are few established methods and tools for directly analyzing the risks of cascading component outages over a longer time scale. Current power system tools have limited ability to perform detailed and accurate cascading-outage analysis, which could be computationally intensive. The Dynamic Contingency Analysis Tool (DCAT) enables power system planning engineers to more realistically assess the consequences of extreme contingencies and potential cascading events across their systems and interconnections. DCAT has several unique features: (i) detailed hybrid dynamic and steady-state analysis of power systems to mimic real-world cascading outages, (ii) detailed modeling of protection systems embedded in the dynamic simulation, (iii) simulation of corrective action after transients, (iv) simulation of islanding , and (v) high-performance computing capability to simulate a large number of contingencies in a reasonable time. DCAT outputs will help find technically sound solutions to reduce the risk of cascading outages. This paper provides details of DCAT methodology and shows its capabilities with extreme events on real-world cases.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Multi-Segment Decentralized Control Strategies for Renewables-Rich Microgrids in Extreme Conditions

Microgrids provide a promising approach to accommodating various distributed energy resources (DERs), while requiring significant communication infrastructures that may be affected by extreme conditions such as natural disasters and cyber-attacks. In this paper, a fully decentralized control strategy without the need for communication is proposed for islanded microgrids with high renewables penetration. First, special multi-segment power/frequency characteristic curves are designed, so that different DERs can be automatically coordinated in a prioritized manner such as renewables first to maintain power balance while DER frequencies are regulated at their reference values. Second, piecewise linear served load versus frequency models are designed to prioritize loads according to their significance, so that only noncritical loads will be curtailed as needed while critical loads are supplied without any interruptions during power deficiency. The proposed strategy can effectively deal with various normal and extreme system conditions including 100% renewables penetration, loads and renewables variations, power deficiencies requiring load curtailments, disconnection of existing DERs, connection of new DERs as well as network sectionalization and reconfiguration. As a result, the proposed control strategy is validated in the real-time digital simulator (RTDS) model of the IIT Campus Microgrid to demonstrate its effectiveness in enhancing the resiliency of renewables-rich microgrids in extreme conditions.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Understanding Diverse Model Projections of Future Extreme El Niño

The majority of future projections in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) show more frequent exceedances of the 5 mm day -1 rainfall threshold in the eastern equatorial Pacific rainfall during El Niño, previously described in the literature as an increase in “extreme El Niño events”; however, these exceedance frequencies vary widely across models, and in some projections actually decrease. Here we combine single-model large ensemble simulations with phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) to diagnose the mechanisms for these differences. The sensitivity of precipitation to local SST anomalies increases consistently across CMIP-class models, tending to amplify extreme El Niño occurrence; however, changes to the magnitude of ENSO-related SST variability can drastically influence the results, indicating that understanding changes to SST variability remains imperative. Future El Niño rainfall intensifies most in models with 1) larger historical cold SST biases in the central equatorial Pacific, which inhibit future increases in local convective cloud shading, enabling more local warming; and 2) smaller historical warm SST biases in the far eastern equatorial Pacific, which enhance future reductions in stratus cloud, enabling more local warming. Additionally, these competing mechanisms complicate efforts to determine whether CMIP5 models under- or overestimate the future impacts of climate change on El Niño rainfall and its global impacts. However, the relation between future projections and historical biases suggests the possibility of using observable metrics as “emergent constraints” on future extreme El Niño, and a proof of concept using SSTA variance, precipitation sensitivity to SST, and regional SST trends is presented.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

An Extreme-Preserving Long-Term Gridded Daily Precipitation Data Set for the Conterminous United States

Extreme daily precipitation contributes to flooding that can cause significant economic damages, and so is important to properly capture in gridded meteorological data sets. This work examines precipitation extremes, the mean precipitation on wet days, and fraction of wet days in two widely used gridded data sets over the conterminous U.S. (CONUS). When compared to the underlying station observations, the gridded data show a 27% reduction in annual 1-day maximum precipitation, 25% increase in wet day fraction, 1.5 to 2.5 day increase in mean wet spell length, 30% low bias in 20-year return values of daily precipitation, and 25% decrease in mean precipitation on wet days. It is shown these changes arise primarily from the time-adjustment applied to put the precipitation gauge observations into a uniform time frame, with the gridding process playing a lesser role. A new daily precipitation data set is developed that omits the time-adjustment (as well as extending the gridded data by 7 years) and is shown to perform significantly better in reproducing extreme precipitation metrics. When the new data set is used to force a land surface model, annually averaged 1-day maximum runoff increases 38% compared to the original data, annual mean runoff increases 17%, evapotranspiration drops 2.3%, and fewer wet days leads to a 3.3% increase in estimated solar insolation. Consequently, these changes are large enough to affect portrayals of flood risk and water balance components important for ecological and climate-change applications across the CONUS.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Supporting Co-Design of Extreme-Scale Systems with In Situ Visual Analysis of Event-Driven Simulations (Final Report)

Extreme-scale systems for compute- and data-centric science are pushing the boundaries of system architectures in order to achieve ambitious goals in terms of computing capability, resilience, and power efficiency. Future systems necessitate emerging designs that incorporate new technologies, system organizations, and computer science techniques, and these changes are not yet well understood. Discrete-event-driven simulation of computing system architectures and subsystems has emerged as a productive and cost-effective means to evaluating potential designs, along with capabilities for executing these simulations of extreme-scale systems. However, techniques for analyzing the behavior of these simulations have not kept pace with our ability to perform the simulations, preventing us from extracting the most value from this promising approach. The objective of this project is to support the codesign of extreme-scale system architectures for compute and data-centric science through research and development of novel methods for analysis and visualization of large-scale event-driven simulations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Intelligent Manufacturing for Extreme Environments Conference Proceedings

The Intelligent Manufacturing for Extreme Environments (IMEE) workshop was held at the Center for Advanced Energy Studies (CAES) in Idaho Falls, Idaho, May 2–3, 2023, in support of the United States (U.S.) National Science Foundation (NSF) Established Program to Stimulate Competitive Research: Workshop Opportunities (EPSCoR-WO) program. This workshop featured keynote speakers, panels, and breakout sessions with 58 participants. Nuclear reactors need to operate under extreme service conditions, such as high temperatures, corrosive environments, and high-radiation doses. Hence, reactor components must be able to withstand those conditions. The participants envision a future where on demand manufacture of components for small modular reactors (SMRs), microreactors, and other advanced reactor designs are possible. In this future, regulatory bodies accept validated manufacturing processes and standardized feedstocks, thus eliminating the need for individual component testing. However, the necessary technologies and regulatory policies needed for this future do not exist today. Successful innovation would revolutionize the nuclear power sector, enable fast commercial development, create economic opportunities in the U.S., reduce the carbon footprint and associated risks, and promote a skilled and highly competitive workforce. The objective of the workshop was to convene world-class experts, researchers, educators, and students to identify gaps and envision solutions for five interrelated challenges for intelligent manufacturing in extreme environments. The key outcomes of the conference were: (1) to take the opportunity for researchers and educators to network and form collaborations; and (2) to produce a full report to inform policy-makers, industry, and the academic community of various challenges and opportunities in the nuclear energy sector.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Final technical report for DE-SC0022255: Discovering Physically Meaningful Structures from Climate Extreme Data

The past two decades have witnessed natural disasters and extreme weather events that affect millions of people. At the same time, the data volume from high-resolution climate models, satellite, in-situ and ground-based measurements have substantially increased to petabyte scales. These new and readily accessible datasets create the previously missing pipeline required for scientific machine learning (ML) and therefore new opportunities for improved understanding and prediction capability of climate extreme events. This project developed a deep latent variable model framework to discover physically meaningful hidden structures from high-dimensional, spatiotemporal climate extreme data.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Expectations of Future Natural Hazards in Human Adaptation to Concurrent Extreme Events in the Colorado River Basin

Human adaptation to climate change is the outcome of long-term decisions continuously made and revised by local communities. Adaptation choices can be represented by economic investment models in which the often large upfront cost of adaptation is offset by the future benefits of avoiding losses due to future natural hazards. In this context, we investigate the role that expectations of future natural hazards have on adaptation in the Colorado River basin of the USA. We apply an innovative approach that quantifies the impacts of changes in concurrent climate extremes, with a focus on flooding events. By including the expectation of future natural hazards in adaptation models, we examine how public policies can focus on this component to support local community adaptation efforts. Findings indicate that considering the concurrent distribution of several variables makes quantification and prediction of extremes easier, more realistic, and consequently improves our capability to model human systems adaptation. Hazard expectation is a leading force in adaptation. Even without assuming increases in exposure, the Colorado River basin is expected to face harsh increases in damage from flooding events unless local communities are able to incorporate climate change and expected increases in extremes in their adaptation planning and decision making.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Residential Natural Gas Demand Response Potential during Extreme Cold Events in Electricity-Gas Coupled Energy Systems

In regions where natural gas is used for both power generation and heating buildings, extreme cold weather events can place the electrical system under enormous stress and challenge the ability to meet residential heating and electric demands. Residential demand response has long been used in the power sector to curtail summer electric load, but these types of programs in general have not seen adoption in the natural gas sector during winter months. Natural gas demand response (NG-DR) has garnered interest given recent extreme cold weather events in the United States; however, the magnitude of savings and potential impacts—to occupants and energy markets—are not well understood. We present a case-study analysis of the technical potential for residential natural gas demand response in the northeast United States that utilizes diverse whole-building energy simulations and high-performance computing. Our results show that NG-DR applied to residential heating systems during extreme cold-weather conditions could reduce natural gas demand by 1–29% based on conservative and aggressive strategies, respectively. This indicates a potential to improve the resilience of gas and electric systems during stressful events, which we examine by estimating the impact on energy costs and electricity generation from natural gas. We also explore relationships between hourly indoor temperatures, demand response, and building envelope efficiency.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
NASA NTRS2006

Data Converters Performance at Extreme Temperatures

Space missions often require radiation and extreme-temperature hardened electronics to survive the harsh environments beyond earth's atmosphere. Traditional approaches to preserve electronics incorporate shielding, insulation and redundancy at the expense of power and weight. However, a novel way of bypassing these problems is the concept of evolutionary hardware. A reconfgurable device, consisting of several switches interconnected with analog/digital parts, is controlled by an evolutionary processor (EP). When the EP detects degradation in the circuit it sends signals to reconfgure the switches, thus forming a new circuit with the desired output. This concept has been developed since the mid-90s, but one problem remains - the EP cannot degrade substantially. For this reason, extensive testing at extreme temperatures (-180' to 120(deg)C) has been done on devices found on FPGA boards (taking the role of the EP) such as the Analog to Digital and the Digital to Analog Converter. Analysis of the results has shown that FPGA boards implementing EP with some compensation may be a practical solution to evolving circuits. This paper describes results on the tests of data converters at extreme temperatures.

evolvable hardware↗
NASA NTRS2006

Functional Recovery of Analog Circuits at Extreme Temperatures

This paper describes a new reconfigurable analog array (RAA) architecture and integrated circuit (IC) used to map analog circuits that can adapt to extreme temperatures under programmable control. Algorithm-driven adaptation takes place on the RAA IC. The algorithms are implemented in a separate Field Programmable Gate Array (FPGA) IC, co-located with the RAA in the extreme temperature environment. The experiments demonstrate circuit adaptation over a wide temperature range, from extremely low temperature of -180 C to high 120 C.

self-recovery↗
NASA NTRS2005

Re-Configurable Electronics Characterization under Extreme Thermal Environment

The need for reconfigurable electronics is driven by requirements to survive longer missions and harsher environments. It is possible to compensate for degradations in Extreme Environments (EE). EE has effect on electronics: circuits are designed to exploit device characteristics and when a certain temperature or radiation range is exceeded the circuit function gradually degrades. It is possible to employ Hardening by reconfiguration (HBR) to mitigate drifts, degradation, or damage on electronic devices in EE by using reconfigurable devices and an adaptive self-reconfiguration of circuit topology. In this manner degraded components can be salvaged, and completely damaged components can be bypassed. The challenge of conventional design is replaced with that of designing a recover process that automatically performs the (re) design in place of the designer. The objective of testing a Digital Signal Processor (DSP) under the extreme temperatures was to determine the lowest temperature at which the DAP can operate. The objective of testing a Xilinx VirtexII Pro FPGA board was to initially find our whether the evaluation board and the FPGA would survive and continue at temperature ranges from -180 C, and 120 C. The Virtex II functioned correctly at the temperatures tested. The next test was done on the GM-C filter building block using the same temperature range as the Virtex II. The current lower and upper limits were shown to be reduced as the temperature gets lower. The device function can be recovered by increasing the Vb from .08V to .85V. The negative and positive saturation voltages increases as the temperature gets higher. The function of the device can be recovered by decreasing the Vb from .8V to around .75V. The next test was performed to test the recovery of the GmC low pass filter through Vb in a filter circuit. The test indicate that bias voltage control adjustment is an efficient mechanism for circuit recovery at extreme temperatures.

reliability↗
NASA NTRS2007

Extreme Environments Technologies for Probes to Venus and Jupiter

This viewgraph presentation reviews the technologies that are used to mitigate extreme environments for probes at Venus and Jupiter. The contents include: 1) Extreme environments at Venus and Jupiter; 2) In-situ missions to Venus and Jupiter (past/present/future); and 3) Approaches to mitigate conditions of extreme environments for probes with systems architectures and technologies.

probe↗
NASA NTRS2008

Extreme Environment Technologies for Space and Terrestrial Applications

Over the next decades, NASA's planned solar system exploration missions are targeting planets, moons and small bodies, where spacecraft would be expected to encounter diverse extreme environmental (EE) conditions throughout their mission phases. These EE conditions are often coupled. For instance, near the surface of Venus and in the deep atmospheres of giant planets, probes would experience high temperatures and pressures. In the Jovian system low temperatures are coupled with high radiation. Other environments include thermal cycling, and corrosion. Mission operations could also introduce extreme conditions, due to atmospheric entry heat flux and deceleration. Some of these EE conditions are not unique to space missions; they can be encountered by terrestrial assets from the fields of defense,oil and gas, aerospace, and automotive industries. In this paper we outline the findings of NASA's Extreme Environments Study Team, including discussions on state of the art and emerging capabilities related to environmental protection, tolerance and operations in EEs. We will also highlight cross cutting EE mitigation technologies, for example, between high g-load tolerant impactors for Europa and instrumented projectiles on Earth; high temperature electronics sensors on Jupiter deep probes and sensors inside jet engines; and pressure vessel technologies for Venus probes and sea bottom monitors. We will argue that synergistic development programs between these fields could be highly beneficial and cost effective for the various agencies and industries. Some of these environments, however, are specific to space and thus the related technology developments should be spear headed by NASA with collaboration from industry and academia.

extreme environments↗
NASA NTRS2012

Distributed Motor Controller (DMC) for Operation in Extreme Environments

This paper presents an extreme environment capable Distributed Motor Controller (DMC) module suitable for operation with a distributed architecture of future spacecraft systems. This motor controller is designed to be a bus-based electronics module capable of operating a single Brushless DC motor in extreme space environments: temperature (-120 C to +85 C required, -180 C to +100 C stretch goal); radiation (>;20K required, >;100KRad stretch goal); >;360 cycles of operation. Achieving this objective will result in a scalable modular configuration for motor control with enhanced reliability that will greatly lower cost during the design, fabrication and ATLO phases of future missions. Within the heart of the DMC lies a pair of cold-capable Application Specific Integrated Circuits (ASICs) and a Field Programmable Gate Array (FPGA) that enable its miniaturization and operation in extreme environments. The ASICs are fabricated in the IBM 0.5 micron Silicon Germanium (SiGe) BiCMOS process and are comprised of Analog circuitry to provide telemetry information, sensor interface, and health and status of DMC. The FPGA contains logic to provide motor control, status monitoring and spacecraft interface. The testing and characterization of these ASICs have yielded excellent functionality in cold temperatures (-135 C). The DMC module has demonstrated successful operation of a motor at temperature.

SiGe↗