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Electrical and chemical interactions at Mars Workshop, part 1

The Electrical and Chemical Interactions at Mars Workshop, hosted by NASA Lewis Research Center on November 19 and 20, 1991, was held with the following objectives in mind: (1) to identify issues related to electrical and chemical interactions between systems and their local environments on Mars, and (2) to recommend means of addressing those issues, including the dispatch of robotic spacecraft to Mars to acquire necessary information. The workshop began with presentations about Mars' surface and orbital environments, Space Exploration Initiative (SEI) systems, environmental interactions, modeling and analysis, and plans for exploration. Participants were then divided into two working groups: one to examine the surface of Mars; and the other, the orbit of Mars. The working groups were to identify issues relating to environmental interactions; to state for each issue what is known and what new knowledge is needed; and to recommend ways to fulfill the need. Issues were prioritized within each working group using the relative severity of effects as a criterion. Described here are the two working groups' contributions. A bibliography of materials used during the workshop and suggested reference materials is included.

Source record↗

Role of the Terrestrial Biosphere in Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate

The terrestrial biosphere–atmosphere interface provides a key chemical, biological, and physical lower boundary for the atmosphere. The presence of vegetation itself modifies the physical boundary, or the biogeophysical aspects of the system, by controlling important climate drivers such as soil moisture, light environment, and temperature. The leaf surface area of the terrestrial biosphere provides additional surface area for emissions, and it can be up to 55% of the total Earth’s surface area during the boreal summer. Vegetation also influences the biogeochemical aspects of the system by emitting a broad suite of reactive trace gases such as biogenic volatile organic compound (BVOC) emissions and climate-relevant primary biological aerosol particles (PBAP). Many of these emissions are a function of meteorological and climatological conditions at the surface, including temperature, light environment, soil moisture, and winds. Once emitted, they can be processed in the troposphere through a suite of chemical reactions. BVOC can contribute to the formation of ozone and secondary organic aerosols (SOA), and PBAP can rupture to form smaller particles with climatic relevance. These emissions and subsequent aerosol products can influence atmospheric processes that affect the surface climate, such as the attenuation of radiation, the formation of greenhouse gases such as ozone that can feedback to surface air temperature, and the alteration of clouds and subsequent precipitation. These atmospheric changes can then feedback to the land surface and emissions themselves, creating positive or negative feedback loops that can dampen or amplify the emission response. For the dominant BVOC isoprene, the feedback response to temperature can be positive or negative depending on ambient temperatures that drive isoprene emissions. The feedback response to soil moisture and precipitation can be positive, negative, or uncoupled depending on the moisture content of the soil and the total atmospheric aerosol loading. For light, the isoprene response can be positive or negative depending on the role of diffuse light. Overall, these feedbacks highlight the dynamical response of the biosphere to changing atmospheric conditions across a range of time scales, from minutes for trace gases and aerosols, to months for phenological changes, to years for land cover and land use change. Here, the dynamic aspect of this system requires us to understand, simulate, and predict the complex feedbacks between the biosphere and atmosphere and understand their role in the simulation and understanding of climate and global change. From the observational perspective, these feedbacks are challenging to identify in observations, and predictive modeling tools provide a crucial link for understanding how these feedbacks will change under warming climate scenarios.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Model of spacecraft atomic oxygen and solar exposure microenvironments

Computer models of environmental conditions in Earth orbit are needed for the following reasons: (1) derivation of material performance parameters from orbital test data, (2) evaluation of spacecraft hardware designs, (3) prediction of material service life, and (4) scheduling spacecraft maintenance. To meet these needs, Boeing has developed programs for modeling atomic oxygen (AO) and solar radiation exposures. The model allows determination of AO and solar ultraviolet (UV) radiation exposures for spacecraft surfaces (1) in arbitrary orientations with respect to the direction of spacecraft motion, (2) overall ranges of solar conditions, and (3) for any mission duration. The models have been successfully applied to prediction of experiment environments on the Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF) and for analysis of selected hardware designs for deployment on other spacecraft. The work on these models has been reported at previous LDEF conferences. Since publication of these reports, a revision has been made to the AO calculation for LDEF, and further work has been done on the microenvironments model for solar exposure.

Bourassa, R. J.↗

Bird Migration Under Climate Change - A Mechanistic Approach Using Remote Sensing

The broad-scale reductions and shifts that may be expected under climate change in the availability and quality of stopover habitat for long-distance migrants is an area of increasing concern for conservation biologists. Researchers generally have taken two broad approaches to the modeling of migration behaviour to understand the impact of these changes on migratory bird populations. These include models based on causal processes and their response to environmental stimulation, "mechanistic models", or models that primarily are based on observed animal distribution patterns and the correlation of these patterns with environmental variables, i.e. "data driven" models. Investigators have applied the latter technique to forecast changes in migration patterns with changes in the environment, for example, as might be expected under climate change, by forecasting how the underlying environmental data layers upon which the relationships are built will change over time. The learned geostatstical correlations are then applied to the modified data layers.. However, this is problematic. Even if the projections of how the underlying data layers will change are correct, it is not evident that the statistical relationships will remain the same, i.e. that the animal organism may not adapt its' behaviour to the changing conditions. Mechanistic models that explicitly take into account the physical, biological, and behaviour responses of an organism as well as the underlying changes in the landscape offer an alternative to address these shortcomings. The availability of satellite remote sensing observations at multiple spatial and temporal scales, coupled with advances in climate modeling and information technologies enable the application of the mechanistic models to predict how continental bird migration patterns may change in response to environmental change. In earlier work, we simulated the impact of effects of wetland loss and inter-annual variability on the fitness of migratory shorebirds in the central fly ways of North America. We demonstrated the phenotypic plasticity of a migratory population of Pectoral sandpipers consisting of an ensemble of 10,000 individual birds in response to changes in stopover locations using an individual based migration model driven by remotely sensed land surface data, climate data and biological field data. With the advent of new computing capabilities enabled hy recent GPU-GP computing paradigms and commodity hardware, it now is possible to simulate both larger ensemble populations and to incorporate more realistic mechanistic factors into migration models. Here, we take our first steps use these tools to study the impact of long-term drought variability on shorebird survival.

Smith, James A.↗

The Capacity Expansion Regional Feasibility (CERF) Model: High-Resolution Power Plant Siting

Abstract This presentation gives an overview of the geospatial power plant siting model CERF. CERF (Capacity Expansion Regional Feasibility) is an open source Python package developed under the Integrated Multisector Multiscale Modeling (IM3) Project at PNNL. This presentation covers an overview of how the CERF model works, walks through various power plant siting analyses, and discusses future research opportunities for the model. The CERF model can be accessed at https://github.com/IMMM-SFA/cerf. PNNL Information Release Number: PNNL-SA-207336 Acknowledgment IM3 is a multi-institutional effort led by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and supported by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Science as part of research in MultiSector Dynamics, Earth and Environmental Systems Modeling Program.

Mongird, Kendall [Pacific Northwest National Labor↗

Developing a Multi-Lingual Autocoding Interface for the MAVERIC-II Dynamics Simulator

Simulation model development in certain high-level languages such as Python, MATLAB, or Simulink are unparalleled by their convenience and rapid turnover time. However, legacy simulation engines often depend on more traditional languages such as FORTRAN or C/C++. The NASA Marshall Aerospace Vehicle Representation in C version II (MAVERIC-II) is a modular, legacy-derived computer program used for high-fidelity, 6 degree-of-freedom (6dof) simulation for aerospace vehicle flights and analyses of guidance and control performance with built-in mathematical modeling of environmental effects such as wind, atmosphere, and gravity as well as dispersion capability for Monte Carlo analysis. MAVERIC-II is modular in the sense that each component software element of the simulation engine may be supplanted for a higher or lower fidelity version. The design flow of the development of these models is often performed in high-level languages as mentioned previously, which must then be translated into C or C++ code to be integrated into MAVERIC-II. We propose a unified method of autocoding and interfacing between several languages and MAVERIC-II, which may be generalized further to any type of 6dof simulation engine.

Mason Nixon↗

Developing a Multilingual Auto-coding Interface Control for the MAVERIC-II Dynamics Simulator

Simulation model development in certain high-level languages such as Python, MATLAB, or Simulink are unparalleled by their convenience and rapid turnover time. However, legacy simulation engines often depend on more traditional languages such as FORTRAN or C/C++. The NASA Marshall Aerospace Vehicle Representation in C version II (MAVERIC-II) is a modular, legacy-derived computer program used for high-fidelity, 6 degree-of-freedom (6DOF) simulation for aerospace vehicle flights and analyses of guidance and control performance with built-in mathematical modeling of environmental effects such as wind, atmosphere, and gravity as well as dispersion capability for Monte Carlo analysis. MAVERIC-II is modular in the sense that each component software element of the simulation engine may be supplanted for a higher or lower fidelity version. The design flow of the development of these models is often performed in high-level languages as mentioned previously, which must then be translated into C or C++ code to be integrated into MAVERIC-II. Using principles of model-based design, we propose a unified method of auto-coding and interfacing between several languages and MAVERIC-II, which may be generalized further to any type of 6DOF simulation engine.

Mason Nixon↗

Modeling atmospheric data and identifying dynamics Temporal data-driven modeling of air pollutants

Atmospheric modelling has recently experienced a surge with the advent of deep learning. Most of these models, however, predict concentrations of pollutants following a data-driven approach in which the physical laws that govern their behaviors and relationships remain hidden. Furthermore, with the aid of real-world air quality data collected hourly in different stations throughout Madrid, we present a case study using a series of data-driven techniques with the following goals: (1) Find systems of ordinary differential equations that model the concentration of pollutants and their changes over time; (2) assess the performance and limitations of our model using stability analysis; (3) reconstruct the time series of chemical pollutants not measured in certain stations using delay coordinate embedding results.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Exobiology site selection for future Mars missions: Martian paleolake sediments and terrestrial analogs

This research was conducted to establish the scientific framework for the exobiological study of sediments on Mars and to encourage the selection of these sedimentary deposits as sampling sites for future Mars missions. A study was completed on the Antarctic Dry Valley Lakes (terrestrial analogs of the purported Martian paleolakes) and their sediments that allowed the development of quantitative models relating environmental factors to the nature of the biological community and sediment forming processes. The publications presented include: (1) Diversity of micro-fungi isolated in an Antarctic dry valley; (2) Lake Hoare, Antarctica--sedimentation through a thick perennial ice cover; (3) The possibility of life on Mars during a water-rich past; (4) An Antarctic research outpost as a model for planetary exploration; (5) Early Martian environments--the Antarctic and other terrestrial analogs; (6) Lipophilic pigments from the benthos of a perennially ice-covered Antarctic lake; and (7) Perennially ice-covered Lake Hoare, Antarctica--physical environment, biology, and sedimentation.

Wharton, Robert A., Jr.↗

Assessment of WRF (v 4.2.1) dynamically downscaled precipitation on subdaily and daily timescales over CONUS

Abstract. This study analyzes the quality of simulated historical precipitation across the contiguous United States (CONUS) in a 12 km Weather Research and Forecasting model version 4.2.1 (WRF v 4.2.1)-based dynamical downscaling of the fifth-generation ECMWF atmospheric reanalysis (ERA5). This work addresses the following questions. First, how well are the 3 and 24 h precipitation characteristics (diurnal and annual cycles, precipitation frequency, annual and seasonal mean and maximum precipitation, and distribution of seasonal maximum precipitation) represented in the downscaled simulation, compared to ERA5? And second, how does the performance of the simulated WRF precipitation vary across seasons, regions, and timescales? Performance is measured against the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/Environmental Modeling Center (NCEP/EMC) 4 km Stage IV and Oregon State University Parameter-Elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) data on 3 and 24 h timescales, respectively. Our analysis suggests that the 12 km WRF exhibits biases typically found in other WRF simulations, including those at convection-permitting scales. In particular, WRF simulates both the timing and magnitude of the summer diurnal precipitation peak as well as ERA5 over most of the CONUS, except for a delayed diurnal peak over the Great Plains. As compared to ERA5, both the month and the magnitude of the precipitation peak annual cycle are remarkably improved in the downscaled WRF simulation. WRF slightly overestimates 3 and 24 h precipitation maximum over the CONUS, in contrast to ERA5, which generally underestimates these quantities mainly over the eastern half of the CONUS. Notably, WRF better captures the probability density distribution (PDF) of 3 and 24 h annual and seasonal maximum precipitation. WRF exhibits seasonally dependent precipitation biases across the CONUS, while ERA5's biases are relatively consistent year round over most of the CONUS. These results suggest that dynamical downscaling to a higher resolution improves upon some precipitation metrics but is susceptible to common regional climate model biases. Consequently, if used as input data for domain-specific models, we suggest moderate bias correction be applied to the dynamically downscaled product.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Using Flexible Execution, Replanning, and Model Parameter Updates to Address Environmental Uncertainty for a Planetary Lander

When planning in unknown environments, a planner must ensure robustness to unknown phenomena and manage unpredictable variation in execution. Productivity in the face of these challenges requires an integrated approach to planning and execution that is capable of reacting to variation while still maximizing overall utility. We examine this problem in the context of the Europa Lander mission concept. We propose a planning and execution framework that responds to feedback using three techniques: (1) flexible execution, (2) periodic replanning, and (3) online model parameter and utility updates. The efficacy of each of these techniques is examined through simulation of the Europa Lander concept, showing higher utility achievement compared to baseline approaches.

Chien, Steve A.↗

Energy Infrastructure Futures: A Multiscale Evaluation of Projected Power Plant Siting Across the Western Interconnection

Energy Infrastructure Futures: A Multiscale Evaluation of Projected Power Plant Siting Across the Western Interconnection Description This dataset contains input and output data for the manuscript Mongird, K. et al. (under review) titled "Energy Infrastructure Futures: A Multiscale Evaluation of Projected Power Plant Siting Across the Western Interconnection". Input data corresponds to gridded spatial siting attributes that are necessary to conduct a random forest machine learning analysis of siting feature importance. Output data includes SHAP feature analysis outputs, and classification report values. For data on power plant siting results referred to in the manuscript, please refer to the CERF: IM3 Projected Western US Power Plant Locations data download page. The downloadable data includes values for eight different future scenarios for the Western US. The scenarios include combinations of two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP3 and SSP5) with four high-resolution climate projections specific to the United States (see, https://tgw-data.msdlive.org/). These climate projections include "hotter" and "cooler" variants for two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The resulting eight simulations are: rcp45cooler_ssp3 rcp45cooler_ssp5 rcp45hotter_ssp3 rcp45hotter_ssp5 rcp85cooler_ssp3 rcp85cooler_ssp5 rcp85hotter_ssp3 rcp85hotter_ssp5 Technical Information The dataset includes two sets of data files: (1) CERF gridded siting parameters and (2) Feature analysis outputs and classification reports. All downloadable data is in csv file format. Files with x/y coordinate information use the Albers Equal Area Conic projection (ESRI:102003). 1. CERF Gridded Siting Parameters This directory provides a balanced sample of gridded CERF siting parameters data for eight different scenarios for the Western US through 2055, seven different technologies, and eight timesteps. This data serves as input to the feature analysis. It contains the following parameters. region_name - name of region (i.e., state) sited - binary value representing whether the grid cell received a siting of that technology type (1=True) rcp - binary value representing scenario resource concentration pathway (0 = RCP4.5, 1 = RCP8.5) ssp - binary value representing scenario shared socioeconomic pathway (0 = SSP3, 1 = SSP5) climate - binary value representing cooler (0) or hotter (1) GCM forcing tech_name - generation technology name sited_year - year that values correspond to transmission_cost - cost of transmission interconnection pipeline_cost - cost of natural gas pipeline interconnection interconnection_cost - total interconnection cost (sum of transmission cost and gas pipeline cost) lmp - associated locational marginal value ($/MWh) associated with the grid cell, timestep, scenario, and technology xcoord - x-coordinate of location ycoord - y-coordinate of location 2a. Feature Analysis Output The dataset includes the feature analysis shap output for locational marginal price and interconnection cost. It contains the following parameters. technology - generator technology name scenario - name of scenario feature - name of feature, either locational_marginal_price or interconnection_cost value - the mean of absolute value of SHAP values for given feature 2b. Feature Analysis Classification Report This download includes the classification report associated with each random forest model. The dataset contains the following parameters. technology - generation technology name scenario - name of scenario test - one of precision (the proportion of predicted positives that are actually correct), recall (the proportion of actual positives that were correctly identified), f1-score (the harmonic mean of precision and recall) 0.0 - value of test for classification of 0 (grid cell not chosen for siting) 1.0 - value of test for classification of 1 (grid cell chosen for siting) accuracy - accuracy of model (i.e., fraction of all predictions that were right) macro avg - Simple average of test values for all classes weighted avg - Weighted average of test values for all classes, weighted based on Acknowledgment IM3 is a multi-institutional effort led by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and supported by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Science as part of research in MultiSector Dynamics, Earth and Environmental Systems Modeling Program. License This data is made available under a CCBY4 License Disclaimer This material was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States Government. Neither the United States Government nor the United States Department of Energy, nor the Contractor, nor any or their employees, nor any jurisdiction or organization that has cooperated in the development of these materials, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness or any information, apparatus, product, software, or process disclosed, or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights. Reference herein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the United States Government or any agency thereof, or Battelle Memorial Institute. The views and opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States Government or any agency thereof. PACIFIC NORTHWEST NATIONAL LABORATORYoperated byBATTELLEfor theUNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF ENERGYunder Contract DE-AC05-76RL01830

Mongird, Kendall [Pacific Northwest National Labor↗

Toward Enhancing Wastewater Treatment with Resource Recovery in Integrated Assessment and Computable General Equilibrium Models

Sustainable water management is essential to increasing water availability and decreasing water pollution. The wastewater sector is expanding globally and beginning to incorporate technologies that recover nutrients from wastewater. Nutrient recovery increases energy consumption but may reduce the demand for nutrients from virgin sources. We estimate the increase in annual global energy consumption (1,100 million GJ) and greenhouse gas emissions (84 million t CO2e) for wastewater treatment in the year 2030 compared to today’s levels to meet sustainable development goals. To capture these trends, integrated assessment and computable general equilibrium models that address the energy-water nexus must evolve. We reviewed 16 of these models to assess how well they capture wastewater treatment plant energy consumption and GHG emissions. Only three models include biogas production from the wastewater organic content. Four explicitly represent energy demand for wastewater treatment, and eight include explicit representation of wastewater treatment plant greenhouse gas emissions. Of those eight models, six models quantify methane emissions from treatment, five include representation of emissions of nitrous oxide, and two include representation of emissions of carbon dioxide. Our review concludes with proposals to improve these models to better capture the energy-water nexus associated with the evolving wastewater treatment sector.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Induction Heating Model of Cermet Fuel Element Environmental Test (CFEET)

Deep space missions with large payloads require high specific impulse and relatively high thrust to achieve mission goals in reasonable time frames. Nuclear Thermal Rockets (NTR) are capable of producing a high specific impulse by employing heat produced by a fission reactor to heat and therefore accelerate hydrogen through a rocket nozzle providing thrust. Fuel element temperatures are very high (up to 3000 K) and hydrogen is highly reactive with most materials at high temperatures. Data covering the effects of high‐temperature hydrogen exposure on fuel elements are limited. The primary concern is the mechanical failure of fuel elements due to large thermal gradients; therefore, high‐melting‐point ceramics‐metallic matrix composites (cermets) are one of the fuels under consideration as part of the Nuclear Cryogenic Propulsion Stage (NCPS) Advance Exploration System (AES) technology project at the Marshall Space Flight Center. The purpose of testing and analytical modeling is to determine their ability to survive and maintain thermal performance in a prototypical NTR reactor environment of exposure to hydrogen at very high temperatures and obtain data to assess the properties of the non‐nuclear support materials. The fission process and the resulting heating performance are well known and do not require that active fissile material to be integrated in this testing. A small‐scale test bed; Compact Fuel Element Environmental Tester (CFEET), designed to heat fuel element samples via induction heating and expose samples to hydrogen is being developed at MSFC to assist in optimal material and manufacturing process selection without utilizing fissile material. This paper details the analytical approach to help design and optimize the test bed using COMSOL Multiphysics for predicting thermal gradients induced by electromagnetic heating (Induction heating) and Thermal Desktop for radiation calculations.

Gomez, C. F.↗

Induction Heating Model of Cermet Fuel Element Environmental Test (CFEET)

Deep space missions with large payloads require high specific impulse and relatively high thrust to achieve mission goals in reasonable time frames. Nuclear Thermal Rockets (NTR) are capable of producing a high specific impulse by employing heat produced by a fission reactor to heat and therefore accelerate hydrogen through a rocket nozzle providing thrust. Fuel element temperatures are very high (up to 3000 K) and hydrogen is highly reactive with most materials at high temperatures. Data covering the effects of high‐temperature hydrogen exposure on fuel elements are limited. The primary concern is the mechanical failure of fuel elements due to large thermal gradients; therefore, high‐melting‐point ceramics‐metallic matrix composites (cermets) are one of the fuels under consideration as part of the Nuclear Cryogenic Propulsion Stage (NCPS) Advance Exploration System (AES) technology project at the Marshall Space Flight Center. The purpose of testing and analytical modeling is to determine their ability to survive and maintain thermal performance in a prototypical NTR reactor environment of exposure to hydrogen at very high temperatures and obtain data to assess the properties of the non‐nuclear support materials. The fission process and the resulting heating performance are well known and do not require that active fissile material to be integrated in this testing. A small‐scale test bed; Compact Fuel Element Environmental Tester (CFEET), designed to heat fuel element samples via induction heating and expose samples to hydrogen is being developed at MSFC to assist in optimal material and manufacturing process selection without utilizing fissile material. This paper details the analytical approach to help design and optimize the test bed using COMSOL Multiphysics for predicting thermal gradients induced by electromagnetic heating (Induction heating) and Thermal Desktop for radiation calculations.

Gomez, Carlos F.↗

Data Quality Objectives Supporting Radiological Air Emissions Monitoring for the PNNL-Richland Campus: North Campus Construction (Rev. 3)

Starting in fiscal year 2023, the north area of the PNNL-Richland Campus will undergo development. Initially, infrastructure (water, electrical) improvements will be installed. Later development includes the construction of several new office buildings. The area to be developed currently contains no buildings but does have two existing solar-powered ambient air sampling stations. Under the requirements of Washington State Department of Health Radioactive Air Emissions License -005, the PNNL-Richland Campus must operate and maintain a radiological air monitoring program. This revision documents and evaluates how the new North Campus construction impacts ambient air surveillance stations within the development region. This revision also considers current stack configurations and uses an updated environmental dispersion model and updated meteorological data. The DQO team concluded that one sampling station in the construction area will be relocated and the other remain in place. The evaluations conducted for this DQO also identified a third sampling station outside the development area that is recommended for relocation as a result of updated dispersion modeling. Recommended sites for the relocations are presented. Considerations for sampling in and around a construction zone are also addressed. Additionally, programmatic improvements to the ambient air sampling program were identified in the DQO process.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Thermal Environmental Testing of NSTAR Engineering Model Ion Thrusters

NASA's New Millenium program will fly a xenon ion propulsion system on the Deep Space 1 Mission. Tests were conducted under NASA's Solar Electric Propulsion Technology Applications Readiness (NSTAR) Program with 3 different engineering model ion thrusters to determine thruster thermal characteristics over the NSTAR operating range in a variety of thermal environments. A liquid nitrogen-cooled shroud was used to cold-soak the thruster to -120 C. Initial tests were performed prior to a mature spacecraft design. Those results and the final, severe, requirements mandated by the spacecraft led to several changes to the basic thermal design. These changes were incorporated into a final design and tested over a wide range of environmental conditions.

Rawlin, Vincent K.↗

Global Corn Heat Stress: Mean and SD of Degree Days Above 29°C based on NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 Climate Projections

Description This global dataset provides the estimated mean and standard deviation (SD) of corn heat stress (degree days above 29°C) for a set of climate models in NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 at 0.25-degree resolution. The NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 dataset is comprised of global downscaled climate scenarios derived from the General Circulation Model (GCM) runs conducted under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). The current dataset includes: Long-Term Average Degree Days Above 29°C- Historical Long-Term Average Degree Days Above 29°C- SSP245 Long-Term Standard Deviation of Degree Days Above 29°C- Historical Long-Term Standard Deviation of Degree Days Above 29°C- SSP245 The mean and SD are calculated over 1985-2014 for the historical period and over 2035-2064 for future projections. A full description of methods, including growing season, daily temperature distribution, and statistical coefficients, can be found in Haqiqi (2024). The source climate data are obtained from https://ds.nccs.nasa.gov/thredds2/catalog/catalog.html and are described in Thrasher et al (2022). The codes used to create this dataset are available at https://github.com/ihaqiqi/dd29c_nex_cmip6. Acknowledgments This work was supported by the US Department of Energy, Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research Program, Earth and Environmental Systems Modeling, MultiSector Dynamics under Cooperative Agreement DE-SC0022141. The data processing, computation, and storage were completed on Purdue Anvil supercomputer and cyberinfrastructure supported by the National Science Foundation HDR award # 2118329: "NSF Institute for Geospatial Understanding through an Integrative Discovery Environment (I-GUIDE)". References Haqiqi. I. (2024). Trade can buffer climate-induced risks and volatilities in crop supply. Environmental Research: Food Systems. https://doi.org/10.1088/2976-601X/ad7d12 Thrasher, B., Wang, W., Michaelis, A., Melton, F., Lee, T., & Nemani, R. (2022). NASA global daily downscaled projections, CMIP6. Scientific Data, 9(1), 262. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-022-01393-4

Climate Change↗