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NASA NTRS2019

Quantification of CO2 and CH4 emissions over Sacramento, California, based on divergence theorem using aircraft measurements

Emission estimates of carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) and the meteorological factors affecting them are investigated over Sacramento, California, using an aircraft equipped with a cavity ring-down greenhouse gas sensor as part of the Alpha Jet Atmospheric eXperiment (AJAX) project. To better constrain the emission fluxes, we designed flights in a cylindrical pattern and computed the emission fluxes from two flights using a kriging method and Gauss’s divergence theorem. Differences in wind treatment and assumptions about background concentrations affect the emission estimates by a factor of 1.5 to 7. The uncertainty is also impacted by meteorological conditions and distance from the emission sources. The vertical layer averaging affects the flux estimate, but the choice of raw wind or mass-balanced wind is more important than the thickness of the vertical averaging for massbalanced wind for both urban and local scales. The importance of vertical mass transfer for flux estimates is examined, and the difference in the total emission estimate with and without vertical mass transfer is found to be small, especially at the local scale. The total flux estimates accounting for the entire circumference are larger than those based solely on measurements made in the downwind region. This indicates that a closed-shape flight profile can better contain total emissions relative to a one-sided curtain flight because most cities have more than one point source and wind direction can change with time and altitude. To reduce the uncertainty of the emission estimate, it is important that the sampling strategy account not only for known source locations but also possible unidentified sources around the city. Our results highlight that aircraft-based measurements using a closed-shape flight pattern are an efficient and useful strategy for identifying emission sources and estimating local- and city-scale greenhouse gas emission fluxes.

Ju-Mee Ryoo↗

NASA NTRS2022

Wetland Emission and Atmospheric Sink Changes Explain Methane Growth in 2020

Atmospheric methane growth reached an exceptionally high rate of 15.1 ± 0.4 parts per billion per year in 2020 despite a probable decrease in anthropogenic methane emissions during COVID-19 lockdowns(1). Here we quantify changes in methane sources and in its atmospheric sink in 2020 compared with 2019. We find that, globally, total anthropogenic emissions decreased by 1.2 ± 0.1 teragrams of methane per year (Tg CH4 yr−1), fire emissions decreased by 6.5 ± 0.1 Tg CH4 yr−1 and wetland emissions increased by 6.0 ± 2.3 Tg CH4 yr−1. Tropospheric OH concentration decreased by 1.6 ± 0.2 per cent relative to 2019, mainly as a result of lower anthropogenic nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions and associated lower free tropospheric ozone during pandemic lockdowns(2). From atmospheric inversions, we also infer that global net emissions increased by 6.9 ± 2.1 Tg CH4 yr−1 in 2020 relative to 2019, and global methane removal from reaction with OH decreased by 7.5 ± 0.8 Tg CH4 yr−1. Therefore, we attribute the methane growth rate anomaly in 2020 relative to 2019 to lower OH sink (53 ± 10 per cent) and higher natural emissions (47 ± 16 per cent), mostly from wetlands. In line with previous findings(3,4,) our results imply that wetland methane emissions are sensitive to a warmer and wetter climate and could act as a positive feedback mechanism in the future. Our study also suggests that nitrogen oxide emission trends need to be taken into account when implementing the global anthropogenic methane emissions reduction pledge(5).

Shushi Peng↗

NASA NTRS2023

Version 2 of the global catalogue of large anthropogenic and volcanic SO 2 sources and emissions derived from satellite measurements

Sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) measurements from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite (OMPS), and TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) satellite spectrometers were used to update and extend the previously developed global catalogue of large SO 2 emission sources. This version 2 of the global catalogue covers the period of 2005–2021 and includes a total of 759 continuously emitting point sources releasing from about 10 kt yr −1 to more than 4000 kt yr −1 of SO 2 , that have been identified and grouped by country and primary source origin: volcanoes (106 sources); power plants (477); smelters (74); and sources related to the oil and gas industry (102). There are several major improvements compared to the original catalogue: it combines emissions estimates from three satellite instruments instead of just OMI, uses a new version 2 of the OMI and OMPS SO 2 dataset, and updated consistent site-specific air mass factors (AMFs) are used to calculate SO 2 vertical column densities (VCDs). The newest TROPOMI SO 2 data processed with the Covariance-Based Retrieval Algorithm (COBRA), used in the catalogue, can detect sources with emissions as low as 8 kt yr −1 (in 2018–2021) compared to the 30 kt yr −1 limit for OMI. In general, there is an overall agreement within ±12 % in total emissions estimated from the three satellite instruments for large regions. For individual emission sources, the spread is larger: the annual emissions estimated from OMI and TROPOMI agree within ±13 % in 50 % of cases and within ±28 % in 90 % of cases. The version 2 catalogue emissions were calculated as a weighted average of emission estimates from the three satellite instruments using an inverse-variance weighting method. OMI, OMPS, and TROPOMI data contribute 7 %, 5 %, and 88 % to the average, respectively, for small (<30 kt yr −1 ) sources and 33 %, 20 %, and 47 %, respectively, for large (>300 kt yr −1 ) sources. The catalogue data show an approximate 50 % decline in global SO 2 emissions between 2005 and 2021, although emissions were relatively stable during the last 3 years. The version 2 of the global catalogue has been posted at the NASA global SO 2 monitoring website (https://doi.org/10.5067/MEASURES/SO2/DATA406, Fioletov et al., 2022).

volcanic↗

DOE OSTI2021

The zero-emissions cost of energy: a policy concept

The energy sector generates over 70% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, but existing energy-climate policies do little to reduce GHG emissions to prevent climate change. We present a new carbon tax policy concept in which energy users would be taxed an amount equal to the cost of cleaning up the emissions that they create, wherein the tax revenues would be used to operate negative emissions technologies. The policy is based on applying the zero-emissions cost (ZEC) metric to energy prices, which includes the 'regular' cost of an energy source plus the cost of sequestering its emissions. Using the ZEC, (a) the energy sector would be emissions-neutral, (b) biofuels would be cheaper than petroleum fuels, and (c) renewable electricity would be cheaper than fossil-fuel electricity. We calculate the energy spending as a fraction of gross domestic product for 'regular' and ZEC cost scenarios. Implementing the ZEC carbon-tax policy would enable a monumental shift to a net-zero emissions energy sector, but carries a significant risk of causing an economic recession. The summary point of this commentary is to demonstrate a pathway to achieve net-zero GHG emissions from the US energy sector, and to contemplate the associated economic impacts on our society.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Greenhouse gas emissions reduction strategies that maximize portfolio-wide life cycle cost reduction, resilience, and environmental justice benefits

While strategies to achieve net-zero emissions at an individual site are well understood, new analysis methods are required for organizations seeking to achieve net-zero across multiple facilities, each with concurrent priority goals. At a portfolio level, distinct locations present varied challenges that cannot be addressed through singular solutions, and competing goals can take precedence with the assumption that net-zero emissions strategies deter from energy resilience and cost savings, therefore negatively impacting nearby communities. This study tests these assumptions by analyzing 16 diverse sites (varying in size, climate, and energy use) to identify strategies that reduce emissions and assess the impact these strategies have on life cycle costs, resilience, and communities with environmental justice concerns. Methods were developed to approximate missing information essential to net-zero evaluation. Established methods were augmented to evaluate life cycle costs, resilience, and environmental justice impacts across a set of strategies and accommodate the multi-criteria analyses. Potential benefits from identified strategies were quantified using site characteristics and a set of corresponding metrics. The net-zero analysis found that 11 sites could use on-site strategies to eliminate all but 2% of emissions generated. The remaining emissions can be offset, for instance through sequestration, executed at the portfolio scale. On-site carbon-free energy was found to reduce 51% of emissions across all sites; efficiency reduced 19% of emissions; sequestration 16%; procured carbon-free energy 15%; fuel switching 1.6%; and fleet electrification 1.3%. Building electrification, however, increased emissions by 4.4%. Different strategies also provide cost, resilience, and/or environmental justice benefits—the degree to which varies with individual site conditions. The findings indicate an advantage to considering the strategies as a comprehensive set, which leads to co-benefits, both in the ability to achieve net-zero goals and in advancing other goals. The results present the case for comprehensive advanced planning at the portfolio level to prioritize investments that will balance the minimization of emissions and life cycle cost with the maximization of resilience and environmental justice benefits. The novel methods for evaluation and integration, valuation of benefits, and consideration at the portfolio scale allow organizations to select investments that simultaneously address multiple key priorities.

Net-Zero Emissions↗

DOE OSTI2023

Integrated system to reduce emissions from natural gas-fired reciprocating engines

Natural gas-fired reciprocating engines (NGFRE), which are naturally aspirated are used in the oil and gas industry for the production, storage, processing, and transmission of natural gas extracted from wells. These stationary, lean-burn engines exhibit increased combustion instability and higher emissions of methane (CH 4 ) and Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs) at lower loads, resulting in restrictions on the operational envelope of such engines. Here, in this paper, some of the emission reduction technologies for NGFREs are reviewed. Also, an experimental investigation of an integrated system to reduce emissions and improve the combustion performance of an NGFRE is presented. The integrated system consists of an air management package and integrated sensors including an amperometric NOx/O 2 sensor, exhaust temperature thermocouple, pressure transducers and vibration sensors. Experiments were carried out using natural gas and natural gas/propane blends at different load steps, and combustion performance, as well as emissions, were analyzed. For natural gas fuel, the results show that the standard deviation of peak pressure and indicated thermal efficiency (ITE) improved by 67.4 psi and 4.2% respectively, at 40% load. Similarly, CH 4 and Nitrogen Oxides (NOx) emissions reduced considerably by 84% and 63% respectively. However, CO emissions increased from 8 ppm to 152 ppm. At 60% load, the ITE improved by 3.8% and the CH 4 emissions were reduced by 68%. The reduction in VOCs emissions was 63% at 40% load and 69% at 60% load. The findings of this research provide evidence of the effectiveness of the integrated air management system in improving the sustainability of NGFREs. In general, this technology can be implemented on air-assisted combustion applications to improve combustion performance and, consequently, reduce emissions.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Methane Emissions from Gathering Compressor Stations in the U.S.

Using results from a nationally representative measurement campaign at 180 gathering compressor stations conducted with nine industry partners, this study estimated emissions for the U.S. gathering sector, where sector-specific emission factors have not been previously available. The study drew from a partner station population of 1705 stations—a significantly larger pool than was available for prior studies. Data indicated that whole gas emission rates from components on gathering stations were comparable to or higher than emission factors utilized by the EPA’s greenhouse gas reporting program (GHGRP) but less than emission factors used for similar components on transmission compressor stations. Field data also indicated that the national population of stations likely has a higher fraction of smaller stations, operating at lower throughput per station, than the data used to develop the per-station emission factor used in EPA’s greenhouse gas inventory (GHGI). This was the first national study to incorporate extensive activity data reported to the GHGRP, including 319 basin-level reports, covering 15,895 reported compressors. Further, combining study emission data with 2017 GHGRP activity data, the study indicated statistically lower national emissions of 1290 [1246–1342] Gg methane per year or 66% [64–69%] of current GHGI estimates, despite estimating 17% [12–22%] more stations than the 2017 GHGI (95% confidence interval). Finally, we propose a replicable method that uses GHGRP activity data to annually update GHGI gathering and boost sector emissions.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Thermal-Strain-Enabled Enhanced Emission from UV Laser-Induced Defect Levels near the Surface of Multilayer MoS 2

Monolayer two-dimensional (2D) materials have been intensively studied while research on multilayers is still in its infancy. Here, we induce defects inside bulk MoS 2 through thermal annealing and near the surface of multilayer MoS 2 using 375 nm laser irradiation, and investigate their photoluminescence (PL) and fluorescence lifetime imaging (FLIM). Enhanced emission is limited within a certain MoS 2 thickness. The observed enhanced emission is evidenced by a threshold behavior in super-linear PL intensity increase, strong polarization effects, and increased lifetime of defect peak. The laser power threshold for enhanced emission is much smaller in defects near the surface than that inside the bulk of multilayer MoS 2 . The mechanical strain from a wrinkle of the sample further lowers the laser power threshold for enhanced emission. By exciting with a 639 nm laser that is close to the fundamental gap between the conduction band minimum and the valence band maximum, the lifetime of defect enhanced emission increased by 5 times. Furthermore, one of the competing indirect bandgap emissions disappears, and the defect emission peak dominates the PL spectrum in the wrinkle area with a strain. Furthermore, the discovered principle can be applied to future studies on the integration of enhanced emission and single photon emission involving selectively depopulating the conduction band of the host crystal to defect levels for quantum emitters.

2D materials↗

DOE OSTI2021

Multipoint Observations of Quasiperiodic Emission Intensification and Effects on Energetic Electron Precipitation

The two Van Allen Probes simultaneously recorded a coherently modulated quasiperiodic (QP) emission that persisted for 3 h. The magnetic field pulsation at the locations of the two satellites showed a substantial difference, and their frequencies were close to but did not exactly match the repetition frequency of QP emissions for most of the time, suggesting that those coherent QP emissions probably originated from a common source, which then propagated over a broad area in the magnetosphere. The QP emissions were amplified by local anisotropic electron distributions, and their large-scale amplitudes were modulated by the plasma density. A novel observation of this event is that chorus waves at frequencies above QP emissions exhibit a strong correlation with QP emissions. Those chorus waves intensified when the QP emissions reach their peak frequency. This indicates that embryonic QP emissions may be critical for its own intensification as well as chorus waves under certain circumstances. A Low-Earth-Orbit POES satellite observed enhanced energetic electron precipitation in conjunction with the Van Allen Probes, providing direct evidence that QP emissions precipitate energetic electrons into the atmosphere. Finally, this scenario is quantitatively confirmed by our quasilinear diffusion simulation results.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Urban NO x emissions around the world declined faster than anticipated between 2005 and 2019

Emission inventory development for air pollutants, by compiling records from individual emission sources, takes many years and involves extensive multi-national effort. A complementary method to estimate air pollution emissions is in the use of satellite remote sensing. In this study, NO 2 observations from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument are combined with re-analysis meteorology to estimate urban nitrogen oxide (NO X ) emissions for 80 global cities between 2005 and 2019. The global average downward trend in satellite-derived urban NO X emissions was 3.1%–4.0% yr -1 between 2009 and 2018 while inventories show a 0%–2.2% yr -1 drop over the same timeframe. This difference is primarily driven by discrepancies between satellite-derived urban NO X emissions and inventories in Africa, China, India, Latin America, and the Middle East. In North America, Europe, Korea, Japan, and Australasia, NO X emissions dropped similarly as reported in the inventories. In Europe, Korea, and Japan only, the temporal trends match the inventories well, but the satellite estimate is consistently larger over time. While many of the discrepancies between satellite-based and inventory emissions estimates represent real differences, some of the discrepancies might be related to the assumptions made to compare the satellite-based estimates with inventory estimates, such as the spatial disaggregation of emissions inventories. Overall, our work identifies that the three largest uncertainties in the satellite estimate are the tropospheric column measurements, wind speed and direction, and spatial definition of each city.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Greenhouse gas emissions embodied in the U.S. solar photovoltaic supply chain

Abstract Solar photovoltaic (PV) electricity is considered to be an important source of electricity generation in the quest for net-zero carbon emissions. However, the growth of solar electricity is creating both increased material demands and increased greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from silicon and PV manufacturing (also referred to as embodied GHG emissions of solar electricity). Here we analyze the silicon and solar PV supply chain for the United States (U.S.) market and find that the embodied GHG emissions of solar PV panel materials (such as silicon), manufacture, logistics, and installation in the U.S. given the current supply chain are 36 g CO 2 e kWh −1 of solar electricity generated. Eighty-five percent of the embodied GHG emissions are from PV panel production processes in China and other Asia–Pacific countries. Moving the silicon and PV manufacturing to the U.S. would reduce the embodied GHG emissions of solar electricity by 16% from its current level, primarily because of the lower GHG emission intensity of the U.S. electrical grid and the lower GHG emissions for aluminum electrolysis in North America. Future scenario analysis shows that by 2030, with the U.S. PV domestic supply chain and its decarbonized grid electricity and aluminum production, as well as improving PV conversion efficiency, the embodied GHG emissions of solar electricity in the U.S. will be reduced to 21 g CO 2 e kWh −1 .

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Implications of an emission trading scheme for India’s net-zero strategy: a modelling-based assessment

To help meet its near-term NDC goals and long-term net-zero 2070 target, the Government of India has planned to establish a Carbon Credit Trading Scheme (CCTS), i.e. a domestic emission trading scheme (ETS). An ETS is an inherently cost-effective policy instrument for emission reduction, providing the greatest flexibility to reduce emissions from within and across sectors. An effective ETS requires design features that consider country-specific challenges and reflect its role within the larger policy package to achieve long-term emission reduction. Within the Indian context and in this study we therefore investigate—(i) what might be the role of the ETS in achieving India’s long-term mitigation targets? (ii) How might the various sectors interact under an emissions cap? (iii) How might the ETS interact with existing energy and climate policies? We do this analysis by running four main scenarios using the integrated assessment model GCAM (v6.0), adapted to India-specific assumptions and expectations. These scenarios are—(i) NZ (net-zero), (ii) NZ + ETS, (iii) NZ + CC (command and control), and (iv) NZ + RPO (renewables purchase obligations) + ETS. The NZ scenario assumes India’s near-term and long-term climate commitments of net zero by 2070. Scenarios with ETS (ii) and (iv) apply an emissions cap on four sectors—electricity, iron and steel, cement, and fertilizer. The scenario with CC applies a homogenous emission cap on each of the chosen sectors but does not allow cross-sectoral trading. The last scenario includes renewables purchase obligations (RPOs along with an ETS. We show that under a specific ETS emissions cap: (i) the electricity sector emerges as the largest source of cost-effective greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction options; (ii) ETS with trading across sectors is around 24% more cost-effective than ETS with trading only within sectors, (iii) RPOs can be complementary to an ETS although the impact of RPOs on GHG reductions in the electricity sector would need to be considered when setting the level of the ETS cap (or emissions intensity targets) or the RPO targets to avoid low carbon prices, and (iv) the direction and volume of financial transfers across sectors depends on allocation targets set by the government. Based on these results we provide design recommendations for India’s ETS.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Observation of Seeded Mn K β Stimulated X-Ray Emission Using Two-Color X-Ray Free-Electron Laser Pulses

Kβ x-ray emission spectroscopy is a powerful probe for electronic structure analysis of 3d transition metal systems and their ultrafast dynamics. Selectively enhancing specific spectral regions would increase this sensitivity and provide fundamentally new insights. Recently we reported the observation and analysis of Kα amplified spontaneous x-ray emission from Mn solutions using an x-ray free-electron laser to create the 1s core-hole population inversion [Kroll et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 120, 133203 (2018)]. To apply this new approach to the chemically more sensitive but much weaker Kβ x-ray emission lines requires a mechanism to outcompete the dominant amplification of the Kα emission. Here we report the observation of seeded amplified Kβ x-ray emission from a NaMnO 4 solution using two colors of x-ray free-electron laser pulses, one to create the 1s core-hole population inversion and the other to seed the amplified Kβ emission. Comparing the observed seeded amplified Kβ emission signal with that from conventional Kβ emission into the same solid angle, we obtain a signal enhancement of more than 10 5 . Finally, our findings are the first important step of enhancing and controlling the emission of selected final states of the Kβ spectrum with applications in chemical and materials science.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2024

Computational study on the impact of gasoline-ethanol blending on autoignition and soot/NO x emissions under low-load gasoline compression ignition conditions

Here, in the present work, computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations of a single-cylinder gasoline compression ignition (GCI) engine are performed to investigate the impact of gasoline-ethanol blending on autoignition, nitrogen oxide (NO x ), and soot emissions under low-load conditions. In order to represent the test gasoline (RD5-87), a four-component toluene primary reference fuel (TPRF)+ethanol (ETPRF) surrogate (with 10% ethanol by volume; E10) is employed. A three-dimensional (3D) engine CFD model employing finite-rate chemistry with a skeletal kinetic mechanism (including NO x sub-mechanism), adaptive mesh refinement (AMR), and hybrid method of moments (HMOM) is adopted to capture the in-cylinder combustion phenomena and soot/NO x emissions. The engine CFD model is validated against experimental data for three gasoline-ethanol blends: E10, E30 and E100, with varying ethanol content by volume. Model validation is carried out for a broad range of start-of-injection (SOI) timings (−21, −27, −36, and −45 crank angle degrees (°CA) after top-dead-center (aTDC)) with respect to in-cylinder pressure, heat release rate, combustion phasing, NO x and soot emissions. For relatively later injection timings (−21 and −27 °CA aTDC), E30 yields higher amount of soot than E10; while the trend reverses for early injection cases (−36 and −45 °CA aTDC ). On the other hand, E100 yields the lowest amount of soot among all fuels irrespective of SOI timing. Further, E10 shows a non-monotonic trend in soot emissions with SOI timing: SOI-36>SOI-45>SOI-21>SOI-27, while soot emissions from E30 exhibit monotonic decrease with advancing SOI timing. NO x emissions from various fuels follow a trend of E10>E30>E100. On the other hand, NO x emissions increase as SOI timing is advanced for all fuels, with an anomaly for E10 and E100 where NO x decreases when SOI is advanced beyond −36 °CA aTDC. Detailed analysis of the numerical results is performed to investigate the soot/NO x emission trends and elucidate the impact of chemical composition and physical properties on autoignition and emissions characteristics.

Computational fluid dynamics↗

DOE OSTI2024

Hestia SW-IFL Onroad Fossil Fuel Carbon Dioxide (FFCO2) product: Road segment-level annual FFCO2 emissions across Arizona (2017-2022), version 1.1

The SW-IFL onroad fossil fuel carbon dioxide (FFCO2) emissions data product represents CO2 emissions from the combustion of fossil fuels by motor vehicles (e.g., passenger cars, trucks, buses, motorcycles) traveling on designated roadways. The emissions are represented geographically on each road segment within the state of Arizona spanning the 2017 to 2022 time period. This data product was developed as part of the Southwest Urban Corridor Integrated Field Laboratory (SW-IFL) project, which aims to provide new knowledge and tools that address urban environmental issues by integrating high-resolution observations, modeling, and civic engagement. The emissions data are provided in CSV (input data, ONR_FFCO2_AZ_county.csv) and GeoPackage form (output polyline objects - about 786,000 road segments, XXXX_AZ_v1.1.gpkg) designated by road class (interstates, arterials, collectors, local). The metadata file (Metadata_SW-IFL_Onroad_annualFFCO2_v1.1.docx) provides details about attributes and data formats. The GeoPackage emissions data are provided separately for local roads and nonlocal roads (interstates, arterials, collectors). The method file (Methods_SW-IFL_Onroad_annualFFCO2_v1.1.docx) describes the data processing flow and data sources. Update on 2024-04-17: Updates were made to both the input emission data file (.csv) and output segment-level emission file (.gpkg). There was an update in county-level emission input data (ONR_FFCO2_AZ_county.csv) and the entire road segments were reprocessed to reflect this update.Update on 2024-04-29: Update was made to one output segment-level emission file (Nonlocal_AZ_v1.0.gpkg). There was an error in the AADT values and the data were reprocessed to reflect this update.Update on 2024-10-22: Temporal coverage was extended to include 2022. VMT values were recalculated using new AADT data and the entire road segments were reprocessed to reflect these updates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Long-Term Methane Emissions Rate Quantification and Alert System for Natural Gas Storage Wells and Fields

The Department of Energy (DOE) National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) and other critical stakeholders (e.g., U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA), state regulators, and industry) seek to more accurately characterize and quantify methane emissions from natural gas storage wells. These efforts will reduce uncertainties in estimates of these emissions in USEPA’s current Green House Gas Inventory (GHGI) under their Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program (GHGRP; EPA, 2016). Emission factors currently used to estimate methane emissions from gas storage wells are the same factors used for onshore natural gas production wells (USEPA, 2016). This study has developed a robust and representative dataset of emissions from disaggregated gas station wellhead components and related emission factors that will inform future enhancements to the GHGI and GHGRP. Extensive methane emissions measurements and meteorological data were collected from three active storage facilities representing two of the three types of storage facilities (i.e., depleted gas reservoir and salt cavern) to support development of emissions factors specifically for gas storage wells and associated components. Methane emissions were quantified from both above-ground components (e.g., pipe fittings and valves) and seepage from the ground surface in proximity to gas storage wellheads.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Updating and Evaluating Anthropogenic Emissions for NOAA’s Global Ensemble Forecast Systems for Aerosols (GEFS-Aerosols): Application of an SO 2 Bias-Scaling Method

We updated the anthropogenic emissions inventory in NOAA’s operational Global Ensemble Forecast for Aerosols (GEFS-Aerosols) to improve the model’s prediction of aerosol optical depth (AOD). We used a methodology to quickly update the pivotal global anthropogenic sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) emissions using a speciated AOD bias-scaling method. The AOD bias-scaling method is based on the latest model predictions compared to NASA’s Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA2). The model bias was subsequently applied to the CEDS 2019 SO 2 emissions for adjustment. The monthly mean GEFS-Aerosols AOD predictions were evaluated against a suite of satellite observations (e.g., MISR, VIIRS, and MODIS), ground-based AERONET observations, and the International Cooperative for Aerosol Prediction (ICAP) ensemble results. The results show that transitioning from CEDS 2014 to CEDS 2019 emissions data led to a significant improvement in the operational GEFS-Aerosols model performance, and applying the bias-scaled SO 2 emissions could further improve global AOD distributions. The biases of the simulated AODs against the observed AODs varied with observation type and seasons by a factor of 3~13 and 2~10, respectively. The global AOD distributions showed that the differences in the simulations against ICAP, MISR, VIIRS, and MODIS were the largest in March–May (MAM) and the smallest in December–February (DJF). When evaluating against the ground-truth AERONET data, the bias-scaling methods improved the global seasonal correlation (r), Index of Agreement (IOA), and mean biases, except for the MAM season, when the negative regional biases were exacerbated compared to the positive regional biases. The effect of bias-scaling had the most beneficial impact on model performance in the regions dominated by anthropogenic emissions, such as East Asia. However, it showed less improvement in other areas impacted by the greater relative transport of natural emissions sources, such as India. The accuracies of the reference observation or assimilation data for the adjusted inputs and the model physics for outputs, and the selection of regions with less seasonal emissions of natural aerosols determine the success of the bias-scaling methods. A companion study on emission scaling of anthropogenic absorbing aerosols needs further improved aerosol prediction.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Using Atmospheric Inverse Modelling of Methane Budgets with Copernicus Land Water and Wetness Data to Detect Land Use-Related Emissions

Climate change mitigation requires countries to report their annual greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and sinks, including those from land use, land use change, and forestry (LULUCF). In Finland, the LULUCF sector plays a crucial role in achieving net-zero GHG emissions, as the sector is expected to be a net sink. However, accurate estimates of LULUCF-related GHG emissions, such as methane (CH 4 ), remain challenging. We estimated LULUCF-related CH 4 emissions in Finland in 2013–2020 by combining national land cover and remote-sensed surface wetness data with CH 4 emissions estimated by an inversion model. According to our inversion model, most of Finland’s CH 4 emissions were attributed to natural sources such as open pristine peatlands. However, our research indicated that forests with thin tree cover surrounding open peatlands may also be a significant source of CH 4 . Unlike open pristine peatlands and pristine peatlands with thin tree cover, surrounding transient forests are included in the Finnish GHG inventory if they meet the criteria used for forest land. The current Finnish national GHG inventory may therefore underestimate CH 4 emissions from forested organic soils surrounding open peatlands, although more precise methods and data are needed to verify this. Given the potential impact on net GHG emissions, CH 4 emissions from transitional forests on organic soils should be further investigated. Furthermore, the results demonstrate the potential of combining atmospheric inversion modelling of GHGs with diverse data sources and highlight the need for methods to more easily combine atmospheric inversions with national GHG inventories.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗