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NASA NTRS1992

Annual and interannual variations of earth-emitted radiation based on a 10-year data set

The method of empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) was applied to a 10-yr data set of outgoing longwave radiation. Spherical harmonic functions are used as a basis set for producing equal area map results. The first EOF accounts for 66 percent of the variance. After that, each EOF accounts for only a small variance, forming a slowly converging series. The first two EOFs describe mainly the annual cycle. The third EOF is primarily the semiannual cycle although many other EOFs also contain significant semiannual parts. These results reaffirm those based on a shorter data set. In addition, a much stronger spring/fall mode was found in the central equatorial Pacific Ocean for the second EOF than was found earlier. The fourth EOF describes much of the 1976 to 1977 and 1982 to 1983 ENSO phenomena. There is typically a gap in the spectrum between a semiannual peak and the annual cycle for all but the first EOF. A semiannual OLR dipole straddles the Asian-Australian monsoon track.

Bess, T. D.↗

NASA NTRS1992

The Global Ocean Observing System

A Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS) should be established now with international coordination (1) to address issues of global change, (2) to implement operational ENSO forecasts, (3) to provide the data required to apply global ocean circulation models, and (4) to extract the greatest value from the one billion dollar investment over the next ten years in ocean remote sensing by the world's space agencies. The objectives of GOOS will focus on climatic and oceanic predictions, on assessing coastal pollution, and in determining the sustainability of living marine resources and ecosystems. GOOS will be a complete system including satellite observations, in situ observations, numerical modeling of ocean processes, and data exchange and management. A series of practical and economic benefits will be derived from the information generated by GOOS. In addition to the marine science community, these benefits will be realized by the energy industries of the world, and by the world's fisheries. The basic oceanic variables that are required to meet the oceanic and predictability objectives of GOOS include wind velocity over the ocean, sea surface temperature and salinity, oceanic profiles of temperature and salinity, surface current, sea level, the extent and thickness of sea ice, the partial pressure of CO2 in surface waters, and the chlorophyll concentration of surface waters. Ocean circulation models and coupled ocean-atmosphere models can be used to evaluate observing system design, to assimilate diverse data sets from in situ and remotely sensed observations, and ultimately to predict future states of the system. The volume of ocean data will increase enormously over the next decade as new satellite systems are launched and as complementary in situ measuring systems are deployed. These data must be transmitted, quality controlled, exchanged, analyzed, and archived with the best state-of-the-art computational methods.

Kester, Dana↗

NASA NTRS1992

An analysis of the relationship between cloud anomalies and sea surface temperature anomalies in a global circulation model

The relationship between the sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) and the anomalies of the monthly mean cloud cover (including the high-level, low-level, and total cloud cover), the outgoing longwave radiation, and the reflected solar radiation was analyzed using a least absolute deviations regression at each grid point over the open ocean for a 6-yr period. The results indicate that cloud change in association with a local 1-C increase in SSTAs cannot be used to predict clouds in a potential future world where all the oceans are 1-C warmer than at present, because much of the observed cloud changes are due to circulation changes, which in turn are related not only to changes in SSTAs but to changes in SSTA gradients. However, because SSTAs are associated with changes in the local ocean-atmosphere moisture and heat fluxes as well as significant changes in circulation (such as ENSO), SSTAs can serve as a surrogate for many aspects of global climate change.

Peterson, Thomas C.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Spatial correlations of interdecadal variation in global surface temperatures

We have analyzed spatial correlation patterns of interdecadal global surface temperature variability from an empirical perspective. Using multitaper coherence estimates from 140-yr records, we find that correlations between hemispheres are significant at about 95 percent confidence for nonrandomness for most of the frequency band in the 0.06-0.24 cyc/yr range. Coherence estimates of pairs of 100-yr grid-point temperature data series near 5-yr period reveal teleconnection patterns consistent with known patterns of ENSO variability. Significant correlated variability is observed near 15 year period, with the dominant teleconnection pattern largely confined to the Northern Hemisphere. Peak-to-peak Delta-T is at about 0.5 deg, with simultaneous warming and cooling of discrete patches on the earth's surface. A global average of this pattern would largely cancel.

Mann, Michael E.↗

NASA NTRS1993

A case study of the intraseasonal oscillation traversing the TOGA-COARE LSD

The paper presents examination of tree intraseasonal (30-60 day) oscillations (ISOs) that occurred during the southern summer season (December 1, 1985 - February 28, 1986) traversing the Large-Scale Domain (LSD) TOGA-COARE, the region which also plays an important role in ENSO, Australian monsoon, and extratropical circulations. Data presented include Hovmoeller diagrams of 5-day running means of 250-mb velocity potential anomalies and OLR anomalies; graphs of five-day running means of OLR in precipitable water (W) per sq m, averaged over 10 x 10 deg boxes centered on 5 S and (1) 145 E, (2) 155 E, (3) 165 E, and (4) 165 D, indicating the midpoint of each ISO; and vertical profiles of zonal wind in m/s averaged over the time period that each ISO spends in the 10 x 10 deg box centered at 5 S, and 175 E and 145 E.

Vincent, Dayton G.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Observational evidence and dynamical interpretation of the total ozone variations in the equatorial region

The total ozone amount is sensitive to the general circulation changes in the lower stratosphere due to the photochemically inactive nature of ozone there. In the equatorial region, such circulation changes arise from the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) of the stratospheric zonal wind and the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In the first half of this study we present observational results of the long-term variations in the equatorial ozone field using the 11 year Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) data, by paying special attention to the longitudinal structure. In the latter half we try to understand quantitatively these variations by using a simple mechanistic relationship. We hypothesis that the ozone modulating processes are attributable to two dynamical effects, the advection effect and tropopause effect, owing to the strong vertical stratification of ozone existing just above the tropopause. The advection effect comes from the vertical motion which maintains the temperature structure, compensating for the radiative damping. The tropopause effect is associated with the altitude change of the tropopause. The total ozone variations in the tropics is discussed in terms of these two dynamical processes with the aid of mechanistic equations combined with the wind and sea surface temperature (SST) observations. The interactions between tropical and extratropical latitudes are beyond the scope of this study. Photochemical effects are also neglected. Details of this study are given by Shiotani (1992) and Hasebe (1992).

Shiotani, Masato↗

NASA NTRS1994

Multiscale low-frequency circulation modes in the global atmosphere

In this paper, fundamental multiscale circulation modes in the global atmosphere are identified with the objective of providing better understanding of atmospheric low-frequency variabilities over a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. With the use of a combination of rotated principal component technique, singular spectrum analysis, and phase space portraits, three categories of basic multiscale modes in the atmosphere are found. The first is the interannual-mode (IAM), which is dominated by time scales longer than a year and can be attributed to heating and circulation anomalies associated with the coupled tropical ocean-atmosphere, in particular the El Nino-Southern Oscillation. The second is a set of tropical intraseasonal modes consisting of three separate multiscale patterns (ISO-1, -2, -3) related to tropical heating that can be identified with the different phases of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), including its teleconnection to the extratropics. The ISO spatial and temporal patterns suggest that the extratropical wave train in the North Pacific and North America is related to heating over the Maritime Continent and that the evolution of the MJO around the equator may require forcing from the extratropics spawning convection over the Indian Ocean. The third category represents extratropical intraseasonal oscillations arising from internal dynamics of the basic-state circulation. In the Northern Hemisphere, there are two distinct circulation modes with multiple frequencies in this category: the Pacific/North America (PNA) and the North Atlantic/Eurasia (NAE). In the Southern Hemisphere, two phase-locked modes (PSA-1 and PSA-2) are found depicting an eastward propagating wave train from eastern Australia, via the Pacific South America to the South Atlantic. The extratropical modes exhibit temporal characteristics such as phase locking and harmonic oscillations possibly associated with quadratically nonlinear dynamical systems. Additionally, the observed monthly and seasonal anomalies arise from a complex interplay of the various multiscale low-frequency modes. The relative dominance of the different modes varies widely from month to month and from year to year. On the monthly time scale, while one or two mechanisms may dominate in one year, no single mechanism seems to dominate for all years. There are indications that when the IAM, that is, ENSO heating patterns are strong, the extratropical modes may be suppressed and vice versa. For the seasonal mean, the interannual mode tends to dominate and the contribution from the PNA remains quite significant.

Lau, K.-M.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Tropical impacts of SST forcing: A case study for 1987 versus 1988

The response of the NASA/Goddard Institute for Space Studies general circulation model (GCM) to large tropical sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies is investigated by evaluating model simulations of the particularly contrasting summer monsoon seasons 1987 and 1988. These years are representative of the warm and cold phases, respectively, of a recent El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event. An ensemble averaging the results of three simulations was considered for each season, using monthly mean observed SST anomalies for June-August 1987 and 1988 as lower boundary forcing. Consistent with the European Center for Medium Weather Forecast (ECMWF)-analyzed winds, the simulations based on 1988 as compared to 1987 SST exhibit stronger upper-tropospheric irrotational circulation between the monsoon regions and the Southern Hemispheric sub-tropical anticyclones, a stronger Pacific Walker cell and a weaker subtropical westerly jet over the South Pacific. In the same vein, the modeled precipitation, indicating a more northerly position of the Pacific Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in 1988 compared with 1987, is supported by satellite observations of outgoing longwave radiation and highly reflective clouds.

Druyan, Leonard M.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Tropical cloud feedbacks and natural variability of climate

Simulations of natural variability by two general circulation models (GCMs) are examined. One GCM is a sector model, allowing relatively rapid integration without simplification of the model physics, which would potentially exclude mechanisms of variability. Two mechanisms are found in which tropical surface temperature and sea surface temperature (SST) vary on interannual and longer timescales. Both are related to changes in cloud cover that modulate SST through the surface radiative flux. Over the equatorial ocean, SST and surface temperature vary on an interannual timescale, which is determined by the magnitude of the associated cloud cover anomalies. Over the subtropical ocean, variations in low cloud cover drive SST variations. In the sector model, the variability has no preferred timescale, but instead is characterized by a 'red' spectrum with increasing power at longer periods. In the terrestrial GCM, SST variability associated with low cloud anomalies has a decadal timescale and is the dominant form of global temperature variability. Both GCMs are coupled to a mixed layer ocean model, where dynamical heat transports are prescribed, thus filtering out El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and thermohaline circulation variability. The occurrence of variability in the absence of dynamical ocean feedbacks suggests that climatic variability on long timescales can arise from atmospheric processes alone.

Miller, R. L.↗

NASA NTRS1994

The volcanic signal in Goddard Institute for Space Studies three-dimensional model simulations

Transient calculations of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies general circulation model for the climatic signal of volcanic eruptions are analyzed. By compositing the output for two different volcanoes for scenario A and five different volcanoes for scenario B, the natural variability is suppressed and the volcanic signals are extracted. Significant global mean surface air temperature cooling and precipitation reduction are found for several years following the eruptions, with larger changes in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) than in the Southern Hemisphere. The global-average temperature response lasts for more than four years, but the precipitation response disappears after three years. The largest cooling in the model occurs in the NH summer of the year after spring eruptions. Significant zonal-average temperature reductions begin in the tropics immediately after the eruptions and extend to 45 deg S - 45 deg N in the year after the eruptions. In the second year, cooling is still seen from 30 deg S to 30 deg N. Because of the low variability in this model as compared to the real world, these signals may appear more significant here than they would by attempting to isolate them using real data. The results suggest that volcanoes can enhance the drought in the Sahel. No evidence was found that stratospheric aerosols from the low-atitude volcanic eruptions can trigger El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events in this model.

Robock, Alan↗

NASA NTRS1994

Geosat-derived sea level and surface current anomalies in the equatorial Pacific during the 1986-1989 El Nino and La Nina

Equatorial wave dynamics are essential in most oceanic models for reproducing aspects of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. Observational evidence of first baroclinic equatorial Kelvin and first symmetric meridional Rossby waves is found in Geosat-derived sea level anomalies (SLA) and surface zonal current anomalies (ZCA) in the equatorial Pacific ocean during the 1986-1987 El Nino and the ensuing 1988-1989 La Nina. This was made possible after extensive quality control and specific processing of the recently improved Geosat geophysical data records pertaining to the 17-day Exact Repeat Mission. In particular, the processing was made so that the Geosat-derived ZCA best fit near-surface zonal currents from three equatorial moorings at 165 deg E, 140 deg W, and 110 deg W. The Geosat-derived SLA and ZCA are decomposed into first baroclinic equatorial Kelvin and gravest Rossby modes. The emphasis is then put on the chronology of the ZCA at the equator where the currents are the most energetic and where Kelvin and first symmetric Rossby waves explain most of the variance in ZCA, in similar proportion. The 1986-1987 El Nino is mostly characterized by a strong downwelling Kelvin wave in December 1986, a series of downwelling Kelvin waves in March-October 1987, and a strong upwelling Rossby wave in March-September 1987. These waves are consistent with wind forcing, and all give rise to notable eastward ZCA for almost an entire year. During El Nino-La Nina transition period there is the occurrence of two downwelling Rossby waves originating from the eastern Pacific at times of favorable wind forcing. These Rossby waves switch the basin-wide ZCA from eastward to westward, terminating the warm event. Then, the 1988-1989 La Nina shows the generation of a series of upwelling Kelvin waves which are clearly identified in March/April and September/October 1988. These upwelling Kelvin waves are apparently related to the enhencement of the trade wind in the western half of the basin. These waves maintain the basin-wide westward ZCA for more than a year, although the ZCA is slightly reduced ba front of upwelling Rossby waves in phase with the normal seasonal cycle. The Kelvin wave forcing and sign of kelvin wave contribution versus Rossby wave contribution to ZCA in the western Pacific are discussed, and we conclude that neither pleads in favor of the delayed action oscillator mechanism.

Delcroix, Thierry↗

NASA NTRS1992

Air-sea interactions and precipitation over the tropical oceans

In this lecture, the author principally discusses air-sea exchanges that are relevant to climate and global problems. The processes of interest are those acting over time scales of months to decades, which in some instances are influenced by smaller-time-scale processes, down to the diurnal time scale. The repsective influence of these processes varies with regions, seasons and scales over which they occur and, because these processes are mostly nonlinear, scale interactions can be quite complex. Owing to the breadth of the topic addressed, the discussion is mostly focused on the tropical regions where air-sea interactions and precipitation processes eventually affect the entire globe. This allows a look in more detail at some air-sea processes, such as those associated with the El Nino southern oscillation (ENSO). This oscillation, which affects the climate of the entire globe, acts over periods of a year or longer and is caused, primarily, by sea surface temperature (SST) variations in the tropical Pacific. As a result, SST variability is often used as an indicator of coupled ocean-atmosphere low-frequency variability. Global or basin scale processes can uniquely be observed from space-born instruments with the coverage required. Space based techniques have been developed during the last decade which can now be used to illustrate the scientific issues presented and the presentation concludes with an overview of some Earth Observing System (EOS) capabilities for addressing air-sea interactions and hydrology issues.

Gautier, C.↗

NASA NTRS1996

[Results of the NASA/University Joint Venture (JOVE) Program at the University of Vermont]

Sea ice parameters in the north and south polar regions are important components of the global climate system. Current air-sea-ice models do not take into account oscillatory behavior in the ice covers other than for the seasonal cycle, since the relative importance of such oscillations is not known. An analysis of oscillatory behavior then becomes important from the standpoints of determining the significance of the various oscillatory components and perhaps discovery of some new aspects of the air-sea-ice interaction processes. One of these components, the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is known to be associated with weather changes on a global scale. Indeed, its spectral components have also been observed in the sea ice distribution in both hemispheres.

Yu, Jun↗

NASA NTRS1998

The Use of a Satellite Climatological Data Set to Infer Large Scale Three Dimensional Flow Characteristics

Ever since the first satellite image loops from the 6.3 micron water vapor channel on the METEOSAT-1 in 1978, there have been numerous efforts (many to a great degree of success) to relate the water vapor radiance patterns to familiar atmospheric dynamic quantities. The realization of these efforts is becoming evident with the merging of satellite derived winds into predictive models (Velden et al., 1997; Swadley and Goerss, 1989). Another parameter that has been quantified from satellite water vapor channel measurements is upper tropospheric relative humidity (UTH) (e.g., Soden and Bretherton, 1996; Schmetz and Turpeinen, 1988). These humidity measurements, in turn, can be used to quantify upper tropospheric water vapor and its transport to more accurately diagnose climate changes (Lerner et al., 1998; Schmetz et al. 1995a) and quantify radiative processes in the upper troposphere. Also apparent in water vapor imagery animations are regions of subsiding and ascending air flow. Indeed, a component of the translated motions we observe are due to vertical velocities. The few attempts at exploiting this information have been met with a fair degree of success. Picon and Desbois (1990) statistically related Meteosat monthly mean water vapor radiances to six standard pressure levels of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) model vertical velocities and found correlation coefficients of about 0.50 or less. This paper presents some preliminary results of viewing climatological satellite water vapor data in a different fashion. Specifically, we attempt to infer the three dimensional flow characteristics of the mid- to upper troposphere as portrayed by GOES VAS during the warm ENSO event (1987) and a subsequent cold period in 1998.

Lerner, Jeffrey A.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Tropical Tropospheric Ozone (TTO) Maps from Nimbus 7 and Earth-Probe TOMS by the Modified-Residual Method: Validation, Evaluation and Trends based on Atlantic Regional Time Series - 1

The well-known wave-one pattern seen in tropical total ozone [Shiotani, 1992; Ziemke et al., 1996, 1998] has been used to develop a modified-residual (MR) method for retrieving time-averaged stratospheric ozone and tropospheric ozone column amount from TOMS (Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer) over the 14 complete calendar years of Nimbus 7 observations (1979-1992) and from TOMS on the Earth-Probe (1996-present) and ADEOS platforms (1996- 1997). Nine- to sixteen-day averaged tropical tropospheric ozone (TTO) maps, validated with ozonesondes, show a seasonality expected from dynamical and chemical influences. The maps may be viewed on a homepage: http://metosrv2.umd.edu/~tropo. Stratospheric column ozone, which is also derived by the modified-residual method, compares well with sondes (to within 6-7 DU) and with stratospheric ozone column derived from other satellites (within 8-10 DU). Validation of the TTO time-series is presently limited to ozonesonde comparisons with Atlantic stations and sites on the adjacent continents (Ascension Island, Natal, Brazil; Brazzaville); for the sounding periods, TTO at all locations agrees with the sonde record to +/-7 DU. TTO time-series and the magnitude of the wave-one pattern show ENSO signals in the strongest El Nifio periods from 1979-1998. From 12degN and 12degS, zonally averaged tropospheric ozone shows no significant trend from 1980-1990. Trends are also not significant during this period in localized regions, e.g. from just west of South America across to southern Africa. This is consistent with the ozonesonde record at Natal, Brazil (the only tropical ozone data publicly available for the 1980's), which shows a not statistically significant increase. The lack of trend in tropospheric ozone agrees with a statistical analysis based on another method for deriving TTO from TOMS, the so-called Convective-Cloud-Differential approach of Ziemke et al. [1998].

Thompson, Anne M.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Potential Predictability of the Monsoon Subclimate Systems

While El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon can be predicted with some success using coupled oceanic-atmospheric models, the skill of predicting the tropical monsoons is low regardless of the methods applied. The low skill of monsoon prediction may be either because the monsoons are not defined appropriately or because they are not influenced significantly by boundary forcing. The latter characterizes the importance of internal dynamics in monsoon variability and leads to many eminent chaotic features of the monsoons. In this study, we analyze results from nine AMIP-type ensemble experiments with the NASA/GEOS-2 general circulation model to assess the potential predictability of the tropical climate system. We will focus on the variability and predictability of tropical monsoon rainfall on seasonal-to-interannual time scales. It is known that the tropical climate is more predictable than its extratropical counterpart. However, predictability is different from one climate subsystem to another within the tropics. It is important to understand the differences among these subsystems in order to increase our skill of seasonal-to-interannual prediction. We assess potential predictability by comparing the magnitude of internal and forced variances as defined by Harzallah and Sadourny (1995). The internal variance measures the spread among the various ensemble members. The forced part of rainfall variance is determined by the magnitude of the ensemble mean rainfall anomaly and by the degree of consistency of the results from the various experiments.

Yang, Song↗

NASA NTRS1999

Interannual and Decadal Variability of Summer Rainfall over South America

Using the CPC (Climate Prediction Center) Merged Analysis of Precipitation product along with the Goddard Earth Observing System reanalysis and the Climate Analysis Center sea surface temperature (SST) data, we conduct a diagnostic study of the interannual and decadal scale variability of summer rainfall over South America. Results show three leading modes of rainfall variation identified with interannual, decadal, and long-term trend variability. Together, these modes explain more than half the total variance. The first mode is highly correlated with El Nino/southern oscillation (ENSO), showing severe drought over Northeast Brazil and copious rainfall over the Ecuador coast and the area of Uruguay-Southern Brazil in El Nino years. This pattern is attributed to the large scale zonal shift of the Walker circulation and local Hadley cell anomaly induced by positive (negative) SST anomaly over the eastern (western) equatorial Pacific. In El Nino years, two convective belts indicated by upper tropospheric velocity potential trough and mid-tropospheric rising motion, which are somewhat symmetric about the equator, extend toward the northeast and the southeast into the tropical North and South Atlantic respectively. Sandwiched between the ascent is a region of descending motion over Northeast Brazil. The southern branch of the anomalous Hadley cell is dynamically linked to the increase of rainfall over Uruguay-Southern Brazil. The regional response of anomalous circulation shows a stronger South American summer monsoon and an enhanced (weakened) subtropical high over the South Atlantic (South Pacific) Ocean. The decadal variation displays a meridional shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), which is tie to the anomalous cross-equatorial SST gradient over the Atlantic and the eastern Pacific. In conjunction with this mode is a large scale mass swing between the polar regions and midlatitudes in both hemispheres. Over the South Atlantic and the South Pacific, the changes of the strength of the subtropical high and the associated surface wind are dynamically consistent with the distribution of local SST anomalies, suggesting the importance of the atmospheric forcing in the decadal time scale. The decadal mode also presents a weak summer monsoon in its positive phase, which reduces the moisture supply from the equatorial Atlantic and the Amazon Basin and results in negative rainfall anomalies over the central Andes and Gran Chaco. The long-term trend shows decrease of rainfall from the northwest coast to the southeast subtropical region and a southward shift of Atlantic ITCZ that leads to increased rainfall over northern and eastern Brazil. Our result shows a close link of this mode to the observed SST warming trend over the subtropical South Atlantic and a remote connection to the interdecadal SST variation over the extratropical North Atlantic found in previous studies.

Zhou, Jiayu↗

NASA NTRS1998

Variations in Upper-Level Water Vapor Transport Diagnosed from Climatological Satellite Data

GOES-7 VAS measurements during the Pathfinder period (1987-88) have been analysed to reveal seasonal and interannual variations in moisture transport. Long term measurements of quality winds and humidity from satellite estimates show superior benefit in diagnosing middle and upper tropospheric large scale climate variations such as ENSO events and direct circulation systems such as the Hadley Cell. A water Vapor Transport Index (WVTI) has been developed to diagnose preferred regions of strong moisture transport and to gauge the seasonal and interannual intensities detected in the GOES viewing area. Second-order variables that may be derived from GOES winds will be also discussed on the poster.

Lerner, Jeffrey A↗