Upgraded Divertor Thomson Scattering System on DIII-D
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Physics - Plasma physics↗
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Trends and drivers of marine fish landings in Portugal since its entrance in the European Union
Abstract Marine landings in Portugal have decreased at a higher rate than fishing effort in the last 20 years. Identifying the variables driving the quantity and composition of landings is pivotal to understand the dynamics of the fisheries sector, which entails complex social and environmental aspects. In this study, we investigate the main drivers of marine fish landings in continental Portugal between 1989 and 2014. To identify common trends in time series, and quantify the importance of environmental factors, we applied a dynamic factor analysis considering four regions and three types of gear (trawling, purse-seine, and a multi-gear fishery). Our results show the importance of fishing effort as the most relevant factor driving marine landings in Portugal, both at the long and short terms. In addition, the effect of environmental factors such as the winter river discharge and the spring East Atlantic Teleconnection index should not be neglected, probably through mechanisms affecting coastal productivity. We provide a comprehensive amount of information that permits to improve our understanding of the trends of the most important commercial species in Portugal during the period of study.
Bueno-Pardo, Juan↗
Partitioning CO 2 fluxes with isotopologue measurements and modeling to understand mechanisms of forest carbon sequestration
1. Objectives This project combines automated in situ observations of the isotopologues of CO 2 with root observations, novel experimental manipulations of belowground processes, and isotope-enabled ecosystem modeling to investigate mechanisms of below- vs. aboveground carbon sequestration at the Harvard Forest Environmental Measurements Site (EMS). The proposed objectives, which have now been largely accomplished, include: A. Partitioning of net ecosystem CO 2 exchange (NEE) into photosynthesis and respiration using long-term continuous observations of the isotopic composition of NEE, and analysis of their dynamics ; B. Investigation of the influence of vegetation phenology on the timing and magnitude of carbon allocated belowground using measurements of root growth and indices of belowground autotrophic vs. heterotrophic respiration (via trenched plots and isotope measurements); C. Testing whether plant allocation of carbon belowground stimulates the microbial decomposition of soil organic matter, using in situ rhizosphere simulation experiments wherein realistic quantities of artificial isotopically-labeled exudates are released into the soil; and D. Synthesis and interpretation of the above data using the Ecosystem Demography Model 2 (ED2). 2. Highlights Accomplishments: • Our isotopic eddy flux record has completed its 5th full year and has been used to independently estimate ecosystem-scale respiration and photosynthesis. • Soil surface chamber isotopic flux measurements were carried out during three growing seasons, in conjunction with a trenching manipulation. Key findings to date (listed by objective): A. Partitioning of Net Ecosystem Exchange: 1. Ecosystem respiration is lower during the day than at night—the first robust evidence of the inhibition of leaf respiration by light (the “Kok effect”) at the ecosystem scale. 2. Because it neglects the Kok effect, the standard NEE partitioning approach overestimates ecosystem photosynthesis (by ~25%) and daytime respiration (by ~100%) in the first half of the growing season at our site, and portrays ecosystem photosynthetic light-use efficiency as declining when in fact it is stable until autumnal senescence. B. Vegetation Phenology and belowground allocation: Findings: 1. Autotrophic respiration (Ra) showed a seasonal pattern, peaking in mid-summer when trees were most active. 2. The effective age of the substrate for belowground respiration is less than 2 weeks. 3. Above and belowground phenology are more synchronous in deciduous hardwood stands than evergreen hemlock stands. 4. The decline in root respiration rates in the fall is related to temperature rather than acclimation of root respiration or substrate limitations. Methodological Issues: 5. The isotopic signatures of autotrophic and heterotrophic respiration are too similar for isotopic partitioning of belowground respiration into these two components at our site—in keeping with the recent findings of Bowling et al. (2015) in a subalpine conifer forest. 6. Artifacts of the trenching method, such as changes in soil moisture and increased carbon substrate from the newly severed roots, are significant and need to be quantified when determining daily to annual estimates of autotrophic and heterotrophic respiration. C. Effects of simulated exudates on priming of microbial decomposition: The stoichiometry of root exudates influences both the amount and the mechanism by which priming occurs. At low C:N, SOC loss is caused by an increase in microbial efficiency. At high C:N, SOC loss is caused by an increase in microbial biomass. D. Modeling with the Ecosystem Demography Model (ED2): 1. Incorporation of 13C tracking to create an isotopically-enabled Ecosystem Demography v2 model (ED2) 2. State-of-the-art parameter optimization methodology developed for improving ED2 model predictions and parameters. 3. Significantly improved model predictions of growth- and maintenance-related carbon fluxes and 13C fluxes
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Partitioning CO 2 fluxes with isotopologue measurements and modeling to understand mechanisms of forest carbon sequestration
1. Project Summary and Objectives This project combines automated in situ observations of the isotopologues of CO 2 with root observations, novel experimental manipulations of belowground processes, and isotope-enabled ecosystem modeling to investigate mechanisms of below- vs. aboveground carbon sequestration at the Harvard Forest Environmental Measurements Site (EMS). The proposed objectives, which have now been largely accomplished, include: A. Partitioning of net ecosystem CO 2 exchange (NEE) into photosynthesis and respiration using long-term continuous observations of the isotopic composition of NEE, and analysis of their dynamics ; B. Investigation of the influence of vegetation phenology on the timing and magnitude of carbon allocated belowground using measurements of root growth and indices of belowground autotrophic vs. heterotrophic respiration (via trenched plots and isotope measurements); C. Testing whether plant allocation of carbon belowground stimulates the microbial decomposition of soil organic matter, using in situ rhizosphere simulation experiments wherein realistic quantities of artificial isotopically-labeled exudates are released into the soil; and D. Synthesis and interpretation of the above data using the Ecosystem Demography Model 2 (ED2).
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Partitioning CO2 fluxes with isotopologue measurements and modeling to understand mechanisms of forest carbon sequestration
1. Objectives This project combines automated in situ observations of the isotopologues of CO2 with root observations, novel experimental manipulations of belowground processes, and isotope-enabled ecosystem modeling to investigate mechanisms of below- vs. aboveground carbon sequestration at the Harvard Forest Environmental Measurements Site (EMS). The proposed objectives, which have now been largely accomplished, include: A. Partitioning of net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) into photosynthesis and respiration using long-term continuous observations of the isotopic composition of NEE, and analysis of their dynamics ; B. Investigation of the influence of vegetation phenology on the timing and magnitude of carbon allocated belowground using measurements of root growth and indices of belowground autotrophic vs. heterotrophic respiration (via trenched plots and isotope measurements); C. Testing whether plant allocation of carbon belowground stimulates the microbial decomposition of soil organic matter, using in situ rhizosphere simulation experiments wherein realistic quantities of artificial isotopically-labeled exudates are released into the soil; and D. Synthesis and interpretation of the above data using the Ecosystem Demography Model 2 (ED2). 2. Highlights Accomplishments: • Our isotopic eddy flux record has completed its 5th full year and has been used to independently estimate ecosystem-scale respiration and photosynthesis. • Soil surface chamber isotopic flux measurements were carried out during three growing seasons, in conjunction with a trenching manipulation. Key findings to date (listed by objective): A. Partitioning of Net Ecosystem Exchange: 1. Ecosystem respiration is lower during the day than at night—the first robust evidence of the inhibition of leaf respiration by light (the “Kok effect”) at the ecosystem scale. 2. Because it neglects the Kok effect, the standard NEE partitioning approach overestimates ecosystem photosynthesis (by ~25%) and daytime respiration (by ~100%) in the first half of the growing season at our site, and portrays ecosystem photosynthetic light-use efficiency as declining when in fact it is stable until autumnal senescence. B. Vegetation Phenology and belowground allocation: Findings: 1. Autotrophic respiration (Ra) showed a seasonal pattern, peaking in mid-summer when trees were most active. 2. The effective age of the substrate for belowground respiration is less than 2 weeks. 3. Above and belowground phenology are more synchronous in deciduous hardwood stands than evergreen hemlock stands. 4. The decline in root respiration rates in the fall is related to temperature rather than acclimation of root respiration or substrate limitations. Methodological Issues: 5. The isotopic signatures of autotrophic and heterotrophic respiration are too similar for isotopic partitioning of belowground respiration into these two components at our site—in keeping with the recent findings of Bowling et al. (2015) in a subalpine conifer forest. 6. Artifacts of the trenching method, such as changes in soil moisture and increased carbon substrate from the newly severed roots, are significant and need to be quantified when determining daily to annual estimates of autotrophic and heterotrophic respiration. C. Effects of simulated exudates on priming of microbial decomposition: The stoichiometry of root exudates influences both the amount and the mechanism by which priming occurs. At low C:N, SOC loss is caused by an increase in microbial efficiency. At high C:N, SOC loss is caused by an increase in microbial biomass. D. Modeling with the Ecosystem Demography Model (ED2): 1. Incorporation of 13C tracking to create an isotopically-enabled Ecosystem Demography v2 model (ED2) 2. State-of-the-art parameter optimization methodology developed for improving ED2 model predictions and parameters. 3. Significantly improved model predictions of growth- and maintenance-related carbon fluxes and 13C fluxes
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Partitioning CO 2 fluxes with isotopologue measurements and modeling to understand mechanisms of forest carbon sequestration
This project combines automated in situ observations of the isotopologues of CO 2 with root observations, novel experimental manipulations of below ground processes, and isotope-enabled ecosystem modeling to investigate mechanisms of below- vs. above ground carbon sequestration at the Harvard Forest Environmental Measurements Site (EMS). The proposed objectives, which have now been largely accomplished, include: (A) Partitioning of net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) into photosynthesis and respiration using long-term continuous observations of the isotopic composition of NEE, and analysis of their dynamics; (B) Investigation of the influence of vegetation phenology on the timing and magnitude of carbon allocated below ground using measurements of root growth and indices of below ground autotrophic vs. heterotrophic respiration (via trenched plots andisotope measurements); (C) Testing whether plant allocation of carbon below ground stimulates the microbial decomposition of soil organic matter, using in situ rhizosphere simulation experiments wherein realistic quantities of artificial isotopically-labeled exudates are released into the soil; and (D) Synthesis and interpretation of the above data using the Ecosystem Demography Model 2 (ED2).
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Iodine Capture Studies of Copper- and Bismuth-Based Sorbents
The release of radioiodine, one of several radionuclides of concern when recycling used nuclear fuel (UNF), is an important consideration in the fuel cycle. In this study, two sorbent materials, Cu 0 -polyacrylonitrile (PAN) and Bi 0 -PAN, were tested as solid sorbent candidates for iodine capture. Experiments using a thin bed of sorbent material were exposed to vaporized iodine for over 300 hours (~2 weeks) under varied conditions in a dynamic flow environment. The overall performance was monitored in real-time using thermogravimetric analysis, and the materials were subsequently characterized for surface and bulk analysis using scanning electron microscopy – energy-dispersive spectroscopy (SEM-EDS) and powder x-ray diffraction (pXRD), respectively. Iodine (in the form of I 2 ) is expected to be released primarily in the dissolver off-gas (DOG) stream; therefore, this study demonstrates the effects of elemental iodine (I 2 ), water vapor (H 2 O), and nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ). When exposed to ‘ideal’ conditions (in which I 2 is carried by dry air), Cu 0 -PAN and Bi 0 -PAN behave differently, with TGA analysis indicating that Cu 0 sorption performance is higher than that of Bi 0 , as evidenced by a larger mass change. Under ‘harsh’ conditions—such as a gaseous feed containing I 2 , H 2 O, and NO 2 vapors carried by air,—iodine capture performance for both Cu 0 - and Bi 0 -PAN are affected. SEM-EDS and pXRD analysis of these materials is discussed herein.
11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
Multiplexed Anodic Stripping Voltammetry Detection of Heavy Metals in Water Using Nanocomposites Modified Screen-Printed Electrodes Integrated With a 3D-Printed Flow Cell
In this study, we present multiplexed anodic stripping voltammetry (ASV) detection of heavy metal ions (HMIs)—As(III), Cd(II), and Pb(II)—using a homemade electrochemical cell consisting of dual working, reference and counter screen-printed electrodes (SPE) on polyimide substrate integrated with a 3D-printed flow cell. Working and counter electrodes were fabricated by the screen-printing of graphite paste while the Ag/AgCl paste was screen-printed as a reference electrode (Ag/AgCl quasi-reference electrode). The working electrodes were modified with (BiO) 2 CO 3 -reduced graphene oxide (rGO)-Nafion [(BiO) 2 CO 3 -rGO-Nafion] and Fe 3 O 4 magnetic nanoparticles (Fe 3 O 4 MNPs) decorated Au nanoparticles (AuNPs)-ionic liquid (IL) (Fe 3 O 4 -Au-IL) nanocomposites separately to enhance HMIs sensing. Electrochemical detection was achieved using square wave ASV technique. The desired structure of the flow electrochemical cell was optimized by the computational fluid dynamic (CFD). Different experimental parameters for stripping analysis of HMIs were optimized including deposition time, deposition potential and flow rate. The linear range of calibration curves with the sensing nanocomposites modified SPE for the three metal ions was from 0–50 μg/L. The limits of detection (S/N = 3) were estimated to be 2.4 μg/L for As(III), 1.2 μg/L for Pb(II) and 0.8 μg/L for Cd(II). Furthermore, the homemade flow anodic stripping sensor platform was used to detect HMIs in simulated river water with a 95–101% recovery, indicating high selectivity and accuracy and great potential for applicability even in complex matrices.
37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
Progressive collapse analysis of stiffened panel structure with consideration of actual welding distortion and residual stresses
To date, inclusion of welding distortion and residual stresses in determining the strength of marine structures is based on empirical formulations due to welding complexity. In this study, a more feasible numerical model was developed from the perspective of inherent strain theory. The accuracy of this simplified numerical model was confirmed by transient thermo-elastic–plastic finite element analysis using a novel dynamic mesh refining and iterative substructure method which is 50 times faster than conventional finite element method. Welding distortion by the two numerical approaches was validated with experimental measurement. The collapse analyses indicated that the inherent strain model predicted a compressive strength and load-displacement curve with high accuracy, as validated by the transient thermo-mechanical model. The global stiffness and the ultimate strength of the welded structure would be overestimated by about 22% if no welding effects were considered. The proposed computation procedure for determining the ultimate strength of welded structures is accurate, simple, and practical and enables improvement of ultimate strength through optimization of welding joint design to reduce the welding residual stress and distortion.
Huang, Hui↗
Development of Multiresolution Capabilities for the Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON) tool A progress update
INL researchers work on technoeconomic analyses for integrated energy systems (IES) using the Framework for Optimization of ResourCes and Economics (FORCE). Within FORCE, researchers use the Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON) tool to conduct optimization of grid portfolios under uncertain market conditions. These optimizations determine optimal capacities for all IES components and strategies for resource dispatch which maximize some economic metric (e.g., net present value). Resource dispatch occurs on finer timescales (typically hours) and thus are asked to respond to a given time series (e.g. hourly load demand profiles for a grid, or pre-determined electricity prices). Volatile and complex bidding dynamics as well as poorly forecasted weather events within deregulated markets add uncertainty to the time series; FORCE can address this uncertainty by training a reduced order model on historical time series and generate unique synthetic time series which represent individual scenarios or realizations of the market. The IES configuration can be simulated under these different sampled realizations and a stochastic optimization is conducted which optimizes the expected value of the desired economic metric. The training of a synthetic time series generator is limited by the chosen time resolution; dynamics can occur on different time scales. Seasonal demand trends can dominate faster dynamical events (such as power outages from certain sectors or severe weather events) which might not get captured correctly by the trained model. In this report, we investigate different ways of addressing the training and generation of time series on multiple time scales using three main algorithms: wavelet decomposition, dynamic mode decomposition, and generative adversarial networks for time series. We demonstrate a time series analysis that yields information on not just the frequency space but also temporal space: where a fast Fourier transform can provide what frequencies dominate, the new algorithms can provide when the frequencies dominate as well. These analyses can help improve IES optimization by allowing researchers to couple simulations at different timescales when it is most needed - seasonal, day-ahead, and real time optimization - with greater computational efficiency. Future work will include implementation of a subset of the proposed algorithms into the FORCE toolset and application of these analyses into multiple timescale optimization.
22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
In Situ Real-Time Radiographic Study of Thin Film Formation Inside Rotating Hollow Spheres
Hollow spheres with uniform coatings on the inner surface have applications in optical devices, time- or site controlled drug release, heat storage devices, and target fabrication for inertial confinement fusion experiments. The fabrication of uniform coatings, which is often critical for the application performance, requires precise understanding and control over the coating process and its parameters. Here, we report on in-situ real-time radiography experiments that provide critical spatio-temporal information about the distribution of fluids inside hollow spheres during uniaxial rotation. Image analysis and computer fluid dynamics simulations were used to explore the effect of liquid viscosity and rotational velocity on the film uniformity. The data were then used to demonstrate the fabrication of uniform sol-gel chemistry derived porous polymer films inside 2mm inner diameter diamond shells.
aerogel↗
Accelerating particle-in-cell kinetic plasma simulations via reduced-order modeling of space-charge dynamics using dynamic mode decomposition
We present a data-driven reduced-order modeling of the space-charge dynamics for electromagnetic particle-in-cell (EMPIC) plasma simulations based on dynamic mode decomposition (DMD). The dynamics of the charged particles in kinetic plasma simulations such as EMPIC is manifested through the plasma current density defined along the edges of the spatial mesh. We showcase the efficacy of DMD in modeling the time evolution of current density through a low-dimensional feature space. Not only do such DMD based predictive reduced-order models help accelerate EMPIC simulations, they also have the potential to facilitate investigative analysis and control applications. Here, we demonstrate the proposed DMD-EMPIC scheme for reduced-order modeling of current density and speedup in EMPIC simulations involving electron beam under the influence of magnetic field, virtual cathode oscillations, and backward wave oscillator.
70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
Data Analysis Approaches for the Risk-Informed Safety Margins Characterization Toolkit
In the past decades, several numerical simulation codes have been employed to simulate accident dynamics (e.g., RELAP5-3D, RELAP-7, MELCOR, MAAP). In order to evaluate the impact of uncertainties into accident dynamics, several stochastic methodologies have been coupled with these codes. These stochastic methods range from classical Monte-Carlo and Latin Hypercube sampling to stochastic polynomial methods. Similar approaches have been introduced into the risk and safety community where stochastic methods (such as RAVEN, ADAPT, MCDET, ADS) have been coupled with safety analysis codes in order to evaluate the safety impact of timing and sequencing of events. These approaches are usually called Dynamic PRA or simulation-based PRA methods. These uncertainties and safety methods usually generate a large number of simulation runs (database storage may be on the order of gigabytes or higher). The scope of this paper is to present a broad overview of methods and algorithms that can be used to analyze and extract information from large data sets containing time dependent data. In this context, “extracting information” means constructing input-output correlations, finding commonalities, and identifying outliers. Some of the algorithms presented here have been developed or are under development within the RAVEN statistical framework.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Tuning Inner-Ear Tip-Link Affinity Through Alternatively Spliced Variants of Protocadherin-15
Human hearing relies upon the tip-to-tip interaction of two nonclassical cadherins, protocadherin-15 (PCDH15) and cadherin-23 (CDH23). Together, these proteins form a filament called the tip link that connects neighboring stereocilia of mechanosensitive hair cells. As sound waves enter the cochlea, the stereocilia deflect and tension is applied to the tip link, opening nearby transduction channels. Disruption of the tip link by loud sound or calcium chelators eliminates transduction currents and illustrates that tip-link integrity is critical for mechanosensing. Tip-link remodeling after disruption is a dynamic process, which can lead to the formation of atypical complexes that incorporate alternatively spliced variants of PCDH15. These variants are categorized into six groups (N1–N6) based upon differences in the first two extracellular cadherin (EC) repeats. Here, we characterized the two N-terminal EC repeats of all PCDH15 variants (pcdh15(N1) to pcdh15(N6)) and combined these variants to test complex formation. We solved the crystal structure of a new complex composed of CDH23 EC1-2 (cdh23) and pcdh15(N2) at 2.3 Å resolution and compared it to the canonical cdh23–pcdh15(N1) complex. While there were subtle structural differences, the binding affinity between cdh23 and pcdh15(N2) is ~6 times weaker than cdh23 and pcdh15(N1) as determined by surface plasmon resonance analysis. Steered molecular dynamics simulations predict that the unbinding force of the cdh23–pcdh15(N2) complex can be lower than the canonical tip link. Our results demonstrate that alternative heterophilic tip-link structures form stable protein–protein interactions in vitro and suggest that homophilic PCDH15–PCDH15 tip links form through the interaction of additional EC repeats.
37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
Revealing meso-structure dynamics in additive manufacturing of energy storage via operando coherent X-ray scattering
3D printing is an emerging technology for the fabrication of energy storage devices, offering advantages over traditional manufacturing methods. However, optimization and design of such devices requires an understanding of the meso-structure formation during the 3D printing process. This study utilizes operando coherent X-ray scattering, X-ray Photon Correlation Spectroscopy (XPCS), to study the spatiotemporally-resolved far-from-equilibrium dynamics during direct ink writing 3D printing. Here, Lithium Titanate (LTO) based ink is prepared and rheologically tested for its shear-thinning properties. Two-time intensity-intensity functions are calculated to be used in subsequent quantitative analysis, which allows for an overall characterization of the dynamics, description of an initial fast decorrelation and identification of sudden rearrangements of subdomains of the sample. The results show the dynamics to be anisotropic, spatiotemporally heterogenous and marked by distinct rearrangement events, all of which impact the electrochemical performance of energy storage devices. The studied 3D printing ink is used to fabricate electrodes which are then electrochemically tested, showing good performance in cycling and retaining structural integrity. This work furthers the understanding of the far-from-equilibrium material dynamics during 3D printing, giving quantitative characterization of this process, and highlights aspects of structure formation relevant to the electrochemical performance of the resultant energy storage device.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Delocalization and stretch-bend mixing of the HOH bend in liquid water
Liquid water’s rich sub-picosecond vibrational dynamics arise from the interplay of different high- and low-frequency modes evolving in a strong yet fluctuating hydrogen bond network. Recent studies of the OH stretching excitations of H 2 O indicate that they are delocalized over several molecules, raising questions about whether the bending vibrations are similarly delocalized. In this paper, we take advantage of an improved 50 fs time-resolution and broadband infrared (IR) spectroscopy to interrogate the 2D IR lineshape and spectral dynamics of the HOH bending vibration of liquid H2O. Indications of strong bend-stretch coupling are observed in early time 2D IR spectra through a broad excited state absorption that extends from 1500 cm -1 to beyond 1900 cm -1 , which corresponds to transitions from the bend to the bend overtone and OH stretching band between 3150 and 3550 cm -1 . Pump-probe measurements reveal a fast 180 fs vibrational relaxation time, which results in a hot-ground state spectrum that is the same as observed for water IR excitation at any other frequency. The fastest dynamical time scale is 80 fs for the polarization anisotropy decay, providing evidence for the delocalized or excitonic character of the bend. Finally, normal mode analysis conducted on water clusters extracted from molecular dynamics simulations corroborate significant stretch-bend mixing and indicate delocalization of δ HOH on 2-7 water molecules.
37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
Ensemble Kalman Filter for Dynamic State Estimation of Power Grids Stochastically Driven by Time-correlated Mechanical Input Power
State and parameter estimation of power transmission networks is important for monitoring power grid operating conditions and analyzing transient stability. Wind power generation depends on fluctuating input power levels, which are correlated in time and contribute to uncertainty in turbine dynamical models. The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), a standard state estimation technique, uses a deterministic forecast and does not explicitly model time-correlated noise in parameters such as mechanical input power. However, this uncertainty affects the probability of fault-induced transient instability and increased prediction bias. Here a novel approach is to model input power noise with time-correlated stochastic fluctuations, and integrate them with the network dynamics during the forecast. While the EnKF has been used to calibrate constant parameters in turbine dynamical models, the calibration of a statistical model for a time-correlated parameter has not been investigated. In this study, twin experiments on a standard transmission network test case are used to validate our time-correlated noise model framework for state estimation of unsteady operating conditions and transient stability analysis, and a methodology is proposed for the inference of the mechanical input power time-correlation length parameter using time-series data from PMUs monitoring power dynamics at generator buses.
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
Dynamic Importance Measures in the ADAPT Framework
Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) uses fault tree/event tree analysis to evaluate the environmental impacts of nuclear power plants due to internal or external initiating events. In a fault tree, basic failure events are assembled using primarily And/Or logic to determine the combinations of failures that lead to failure of the system as a whole. An event tree is forward-facing, and begins with a single initiating event. From there the analysis considers what event may occur next, and branches out among the possible configurations of occurrence and non-occurrence of that event. This branching continues until user-defined end states are reached. End states may include a safe and stable configuration of the plant, or any number of differing failure states. Both fault and event trees require basic event probabilities as inputs to provide insight on the likelihood of different outcomes. PRA has been applied to nuclear power plants as an analysis tool since the 1975 Reactor Safety Study. In a traditional PRA, the order of events is prescribed by the analyst and each event is typically a binary aleatory uncertainty: occurrence or non-occurrence. Discrete dynamic event tree (DDET) analysis eliminates this subjectivity in ordering of events by using the output of a dynamic system model (simulator) to inform the branching. Branching conditions are triggered by the existence of a relevant plant state in the code, and therefore only occur as physically appropriate. The DDET approach also allows consideration of both epistemic and aleatory uncertainties on a phenomenologically and stochastically consistent platform. One current limitation of DDETs is the assessment of results, which is not as well developed as in traditional PRA. A concept that is used in PRA to assess the significance of a basic event is the concept of importance measures (IMs). In traditional PRA, IMs only consider the likelihood of occurrence of non-occurrence of a basic event. The application of importance measures to DDETs must take into consideration not only the occurrence and non-occurrence of an event, but also uncertain timing or severity. This work describes three general dynamic importance measures (DIMs) as implemented in the Analysis of Dynamic Accident Progression Trees (ADAPT) DDET driver code. The measures account for the change in progression of the DDET resulting from the different values of each uncertain variable under investigation. The DIMs are applied to a sample DDET to demonstrate the type of insights that may be gained from each one. These measures will facilitate comparison of the impact of dynamic branching events on a consequence of interest, which also allow DDETs to be used in prioritizing plant investments. (authors)
22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗