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DOE OSTI2023

Non-parametric projections of national income distribution consistent with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Understanding and projecting income distributions within countries and regions is important to understanding consumption trends and the distributional consequences of climate impacts and responses. Several global, country-level projections of income distribution are available but most project only the Gini coefficient (a summary statistic of the distribution) or utilize the Gini along with the assumption of a lognormal distribution. We test the lognormal assumption and find that it typically underestimates income in the highest deciles and over-estimates it in others. We find that a new model based on two principal components of national time series data for income distribution provides a better fit to the data for all deciles, especially for the highest and lowest. We also construct a projection model in which the first principal component is driven by the Gini coefficient and the second captures deviations from this relationship. We use the model to project income distribution by decile for all countries for the five shared socioeconomic pathways. We find that inequality is consistently higher than projections based on the Gini and the lognormal functional form, with some countries reaching ratios of the highest to lowest income deciles that are almost three times their value using the lognormal assumption.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2026

First results from search for muon-neutrino disappearance at ICARUS

The ICARUS collaboration has completed a search for muon-neutrino disappearance in the context of the 3+1 sterile neutrino model using data collected with the Booster Neutrino Beam at Fermilab during 2022-2023 (ICARUS Run 2). Events are reconstructed with two different reconstruction frameworks and we select events with 1 muon, at least 1 proton, and no pions in the final state. A new fitting framework, called PROfit, was developed for this analysis and used for the final results presented here. As a single detector oscillation search this analysis is systematics limited, but the tools shown here will serve as a building block for future SBN searches where systematics will be constrained by the addition of a near detector. I will discuss the details of the analysis with a focus on the fitting framework, mock data studies, and the final fitting procedure during the data unboxing.

Larkin, Jacob [Rochester U.]↗

DOE OSTI2026

First results from search for muon-neutrino disappearance at ICARUS

Larkin, Jacob [Rochester U.]↗

DOE OSTI2023

Examining ICARUS Cosmic Muon Signal Shapes

In the search for new physics, such as sterile neutrinos, we must compare our experimental data to the case where this new physics does not exist, which is provided by simulations. However, our detectors and simulations are not perfect, so we need to be able to differentiate imperfections in our simulations, detector effects, and unknown unknowns from new physics. Thus, we need to quantify ICARUS detector systematic uncertainties; in other words, we need to know how much difference between experiment and simulation we can expect due to only detector systematics, so when we see differences greater than this, we can be confident they are due to new physics. To calculate this uncertainty, we study the signals produced in ICARUS by cosmic muons, since these muons are well understood. Ideally, we want to fit these waveforms as Gaussians and compare the fits from experimental data to fits from simulations to calculate the uncertainties, but first, we need to know how accurately these curve s can be described by Gaussians. We examined the peak and the full width at half maximum (FHWM) of signals from simulations, and we produced plots of the distribution of peaks and FHWMs for these signals. We further studied how the peaks and FHWMs varied depending on where the signal came from in the detector. Ultimately, by comparing the actual distribution of peaks and FHWMs to the distribution predicted by the Gaussian fits, we hope to determine how well these signals can be described as Gaussians.

Patino, Nicolas↗

DOE OSTI2025

Probabilistic Hazard Assessment for Tornadoes, Straight-Line Wind, and Extreme Precipitation at the Savannah River Site

Recent data sets for three meteorological phenomena with the potential to inflict damage on SRS facilities – tornadoes, straight-line winds, and heavy precipitation – are analyzed using appropriate statistical techniques to estimate the occurrence probabilities for these events in the future. Summaries of the results for DOE-mandated return periods and comparisons to similar calculations performed in 2013 by Werth et al. (W2013) are given. Using tornado statistics for i) the combined states of Georgia and South Carolina, and ii) a 2⁰ square area surrounding SRS, we calculated the probability per year of any location at SRS being struck by a tornado (the ‘strike’ probability) and the probability that any point will experience winds above set thresholds. The strike probability was calculated to be 7.04E-4 (1 chance in 1420) per year and tornadic wind speeds for DOE mandated return periods of 50,000 years (corresponding to wind design category 3 (WDC-3), and 125,000 years (meeting WDC-4) (USDOE, 2016) were estimated to be 132 mph and 147 mph, respectively. By contrast, default tornado wind speeds taken from ANSI/ANS-2.3-2011 are somewhat higher: 161 mph for return periods of 50,000 years and 173 mph every 125,000 years (ANS, 2011). Although the ANS and the SRS evaluation used the same basic model (Ramsdell and Rishel, 2007), the region defined in ANS 2.3 that encompasses the SRS also includes areas of the Great Plains and lower Midwest, regions with much higher occurrence frequencies of strong tornadoes. The SRS straight-line wind values associated with various return periods were calculated by fitting existing wind data to a GEV1 distribution and extrapolating the values for any return period from the tail of that function. For the DOE mandated return periods, we expect straight-line winds of 117 mph every 2500 years (the required WDC-3 standard) and 125 mph every 6250 years (WDC-4) at any point within the SRS. These values are similar to those from the ANS-2.3-2011 report, which has wind speeds of 125mph and 133 mph for return periods of 2500 years and 6250 years, respectively. For extreme precipitation, we compared the fits of two different theoretical extreme-value distributions and applied the one that fit the data best for each of several accumulation periods. The DOE mandated 6-hr accumulated rainfall for return periods of 10,000 years (corresponding to precipitation design category 3 (PDC-3) and 25,000 years (PDC-4) were estimated as 9.1 inches and 10.1 inches, respectively. For the 24-hr rainfall return periods of 10,000 years and 25,000 years, total rainfall estimates were 12.02 inches and 13.17 inches, respectively, higher than comparable values provided in the W2013 report.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Hierarchical Bayesian Thermonuclear Rate for the 7 Be(n,p) 7 Li Big Bang Nucleosynthesis Reaction

Big Bang nucleosynthesis provides the earliest probe of standard model physics, at a time when the universe was less than 1000 seconds old. It determines the abundances of the lightest nuclides, which give rise to the subsequent history of the visible matter in the universe. This work derives new 7 Be(n,p) 7 Li thermonuclear reaction rates based on all available experimental information. This reaction sensitively impacts the primordial abundances of 7 Be and 7 Li during big bang nucleosynthesis. We critically evaluate all available data and disregard experimental results that are questionable. For the nuclear model, we adopt an incoherent sum of single-level, two-channel, R -matrix approximation expressions, which are implemented into a hierarchical Bayesian model, to analyze the remaining six data sets we deem most reliable. In the fitting of the data, we consistently model all known sources of uncertainty, including discrepant absolute normalizations of different data sets, and also take the variation of the neutron and proton channel radii into account, hence providing less biased estimates of the 7 Be(n,p) 7 Li thermonuclear rates. From the resulting posteriors, we extract R -matrix parameters ($E_r, γ^2_n, γ^2_p$) and derive excitation energies and partial and total widths. Our fit is sensitive to the contributions of the first three levels above the neutron threshold. Reaction rates were computed by integrating 10,000 samples of the reduced cross section. Our 7 Be(n,p) 7 Li thermonuclear rates have uncertainties between 1.5% and 2.0% at temperatures of ≤1 GK. Finally, we compare our rates to previous results and find that the 7 Be(n,p) 7 Li rates most commonly used in big bang simulations have uncertainties that are too optimistic.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Dose reconstruction for plutonium-239 intakes at the Rocky Flats Plant

Purpose: The Rocky Flats (RF) Plant was a weapons manufacturing facility that operated from the early 1950s to 1989. Its primary missions were the production of plutonium (Pu) pits for thermonuclear weapons and the processing of retired weapons for Pu recovery. The purpose of this study was to estimate radiation doses to a cohort of 4499 RF workers from an intake of 239 Pu, the primary plutonium isotope handled at the site. Materials and methods: The latest biokinetic models of the International Commission on Radiological Protection, or site-specific variations of those models, were used to estimate 239 Pu intakes for each worker based on model fits to bioassay data often coupled with lung measurements. Results: Urinary excretion and lung retention data for most 239 Pu intakes could be fit reasonably well by a mixture of Pu dioxide and moderately soluble material. For some workers, better fits were obtained by application of other absorption types including Type S, 239 Pu nitrate, or pure 239 Pu dioxide, or by assuming intake via a wound. The lungs typically received the highest tissue doses, with fifty-year committed equivalent doses in the range of 0.5–1 Sv for 275 workers, 1–5 Sv for 115 workers, and greater than 5 Sv for 12 workers. Conclusions: RF was a unique site regarding a large number of lung measurements available for determining the appropriate absorption types for inhaled material. Further, this provided higher confidence in reconstructed 239 Pu doses than is generally gained from urinary data alone.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Predicting the viability of beta-lactamase: How folding and binding free energies correlate with beta-lactamase fitness

One of the long-standing holy grails of molecular evolution has been the ability to predict an organism’s fitness directly from its genotype. With such predictive abilities in hand, researchers would be able to more accurately forecast how organisms will evolve and how proteins with novel functions could be engineered, leading to revolutionary advances in medicine and biotechnology. In this work, we assemble the largest reported set of experimental TEM-1 β-lactamase folding free energies and use this data in conjunction with previously acquired fitness data and computational free energy predictions to determine how much of the fitness of β-lactamase can be directly predicted by thermodynamic folding and binding free energies. We focus upon β-lactamase because of its long history as a model enzyme and its central role in antibiotic resistance. Based upon a set of 21 β-lactamase single and double mutants expressly designed to influence protein folding, we first demonstrate that modeling software designed to compute folding free energies such as FoldX and PyRosetta can meaningfully, although not perfectly, predict the experimental folding free energies of single mutants. Interestingly, while these techniques also yield sensible double mutant free energies, we show that they do so for the wrong physical reasons. We then go on to assess how well both experimental and computational folding free energies explain single mutant fitness. We find that folding free energies account for, at most, 24% of the variance in β-lactamase fitness values according to linear models and, somewhat surprisingly, complementing folding free energies with computationally-predicted binding free energies of residues near the active site only increases the folding-only figure by a few percent. This strongly suggests that the majority of β-lactamase’s fitness is controlled by factors other than free energies. Overall, our results shed a bright light on to what extent the community is justified in using thermodynamic measures to infer protein fitness as well as how applicable modern computational techniques for predicting free energies will be to the large data sets of multiply-mutated proteins forthcoming.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Pooling Data Improves Multimodel IDF Estimates over Median-Based IDF Estimates: Analysis over the Susquehanna and Florida

Traditional multimodel methods for estimating future changes in precipitation intensity, duration, and frequency (IDF) curves rely on mean or median of models’ IDF estimates. Such multimodel estimates are impaired by large estimation uncertainty, shadowing their efficacy in planning efforts. Here, assuming that each climate model is one representation of the underlying data generating process, i.e., the Earth system, we propose a novel extension of current methods through pooling model data: (i) evaluate performance of climate models in simulating the spatial and temporal variability of the observed annual maximum precipitation (AMP), (ii) bias-correct and pool historical and future AMP data of reasonably performing models, and (iii) compute IDF estimates in a nonstationary framework from pooled historical and future model data. Pooling enhances fitting of the extreme value distribution to the data and assumes that data from reasonably performing models represent samples from the “true” underlying data generating distribution. Through Monte Carlo simulations with synthetic data, we show that return periods derived from pooled data have smaller biases and lesser uncertainty than those derived from ensembles of individual model data. We apply this method to NA-CORDEX models to estimate changes in 24-h precipitation intensity–frequency (PIF) estimates over the Susquehanna watershed and Florida peninsula. Our approach identifies significant future changes at more stations compared to median-based PIF estimates. The analysis suggests that almost all stations over the Susquehanna and at least two-thirds of the stations over the Florida peninsula will observe significant increases in 24-h precipitation for 2–100-yr return periods.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2021

Modeling HIV-1 Within-Host Dynamics After Passive Infusion of the Broadly Neutralizing Antibody VRC01

VRC01 is a broadly neutralizing antibody that targets the CD4 binding site of HIV-1 gp120. Passive administration of VRC01 in humans has assessed the safety and the effect on plasma viremia of this monoclonal antibody (mAb) in a phase 1 clinical trial. After VRC01 infusion, the plasma viral load in most of the participants was reduced but had particular dynamics not observed during antiretroviral therapy. In this paper, we introduce different mathematical models to explain the observed dynamics and fit them to the plasma viral load data. Based on the fitting results we argue that a model containing reversible Ab binding to virions and clearance of virus-VRC01 complexes by a two-step process that includes (1) saturable capture followed by (2) internalization/degradation by phagocytes, best explains the data. This model predicts that VRC01 may enhance the clearance of Ab-virus complexes, explaining the initial viral decay observed immediately after antibody infusion in some participants. Because Ab-virus complexes are assumed to be unable to infect cells, i.e., contain neutralized virus, the model predicts a longer-term viral decay consistent with that observed in the VRC01 treated participants. By assuming a homogeneous viral population sensitive to VRC01, the model provides good fits to all of the participant data. However, the fits are improved by assuming that there were two populations of virus, one more susceptible to antibody-mediated neutralization than the other.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Calibrating the SPECTACULAR constitutive model using legacy Sandia data for two filled epoxy systems: 828/CTBN/DEA/GMB and 828/DEA/GMB

The SPECTACULAR model is a development extension of the Simplified Potential Energy Clock (SPEC) model. Both models are nonlinear viscoelastic constitutive models used to predict a wide range of time-dependent behaviors in epoxies and other glass-forming materials. This report documents the procedures used to generate SPECTACULAR calibrations for two particulate-filled epoxy systems, 828/CTBN/DEA/GMB and 828/DEA/GMB. No previous SPECTACULAR or SPEC calibration exists for 828/CTBN/DEA/GMB, while a legacy SPEC calibration exists for 828/DEA/GMB. To generate the SPECTACULAR calibrations, a step-by-step procedure was executed to determine parameters in groups with minimal coupling between parameter groups. This procedure has often been deployed to calibrate SPEC, therefore the resulting SPECTACULAR calibration is backwards compatible with SPEC (i.e. none of the extensions specific to SPECTACULAR are used). The calibration procedure used legacy Sandia experimental data stored on the Polymer Properties Database website. The experiments used for calibration included shear master curves, isofrequency temperature sweeps under oscillatory shear, the bulk modulus at room temperature, the thermal strain during a temperature sweep, and compression through yield at multiple temperatures below the glass transition temperature. Overall, the calibrated models fit the experimental data remarkably well. However, the glassy shear modulus varies depending on the experiment used to calibrate it. For instance, the shear master curve, isofrequency temperature sweep under oscillatory shear, and the Young's modulus in glassy compression yield values for the glassy shear modulus at the reference temperature that vary by as much as 15 %. Also, for 828/CTBN/DEA/GMB, the temperature dependence of the glassy shear modulus when fit to the Young's modulus at different temperatures is approximately four times larger than when it is determined from the isofrequency temperature sweep under oscillatory shear. For 828/DEA/GMB, the temperature dependence of the shear modulus determined from the isofrequency temperature sweep under oscillatory shear accurately predicts the Young's modulus at different temperatures. When choosing values for the shear modulus, fitting the glassy compression data was prioritized. The new and legacy calibrations for 828/DEA/GMB are similar and appear to have been calibrated from the same data. However, the new calibration improves the fit to the thermal strain data. In addition to the standard calibrations, development calibrations were produced that take advantage of development features of SPECTACULAR , including an updated equilibrium Helmholtz free energy that eliminates undesirable behavior found in previous work. In addition to the previously mentioned experimental data, the development calibrations require data for the heat capacity during a stress-free temperature sweep to calibrate thermal terms.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Estimating the color lifetime of energetic quarks

Using a simple geometric framework with a realistic nuclear density distribution, we fit published HERMES data to determine fundamental properties of hadronization using the nuclear medium as a spatial analyzer. Our approach uses a fit to the transverse momentum broadening observable and the hadronic multiplicity ratio; the simultaneous fit to two different observables strongly constrains the outcome. Using the known sizes of the target nuclei, we extract the color lifetime, finding a z h -dependent range of values from 2 to 8 fm/c for these data. We also extract estimates for the qˆ transport coefficient characterizing the strength of the interaction between the quark and the cold nuclear medium, finding an average value of 0.035±0.011 GeV 2 /fm. With a three-parameter model we obtain satisfactory fits to the data with a goodness-of-fit parameter χ 2 /dof of 1.1 or less. In a secondary fit of the results from that model we independently find a value for the Lund String Model string tension of 1.00±0.05 GeV/fm. We evaluated the sensitivity for extracting quark energy loss and effective in-medium hadronic cross sections using four-parameter variants of the model, finding large uncertainties in both cases. Our results suggest that hadronic interaction of forming hadrons in the nuclear medium is the primary dynamical cause of meson attenuation in the HERMES data, with quark energy loss playing a more minor role.

Electron-ion collider↗

DOE OSTI2024

Relic neutrino decay solution to the excess radio background

Abstract The excess radio background detected by ARCADE 2 represents a puzzle within the standard cosmological model. There is no clear viable astrophysical solution, and therefore, it might indicate the presence of new physics. Radiative decays of a relic neutrino ν_i (either i=1, or i=2, or i=3) into a sterile neutrino ν_ s, assumed to be quasi-degenerate, provide a solution that currently evades all constraints posed by different cosmological observations and reproduces very well the ARCADE 2 data. We find a very good fit to the ARCADE 2 data with best fit values τ_i = 1.46 × 10^21 s and Δ m_i = 4.0 × 10^-5 eV, where τ_i is the lifetime and Δ m_i is the mass difference between the decaying active neutrino and the sterile neutrino. On the other hand, if relic neutrino decays do not explain ARCADE 2 data, then these place a stringent constraint Δ m_i^3/2τ_i ≳ 2 × 10^14 eV^3/2 s in the range 1.4 × 10^-5 eV<Δ m_i < 2.5 × 10^-4 eV. The solution also predicts a stronger 21 cm absorption global signal than the predicted one from the ΛCDM model, with a contrast brightness temperature T_21 = -238^+21_-20 mK (99% C.L.) at redshift z≃ 17. This is in mild tension with the even stronger signal found by the EDGES collaboration, T_21 = - 500^+200_-500 mK, suggesting that this might have been overestimated, possibly receiving a contribution from some unidentified foreground source.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

DOE OSTI2021

SURFplus model calibration for PBX 9012

PBX 9012 is a plastic bonded explosive composed of 90.2 wt % HMX (cyclo-tetramethylene-tetranitramine) and 9.8 % Viton A (vinylidene-hexafluoropropylene copolymer). It has nearly the same composition as LX-07 (90% HMX and 10% Viton A) but with a slightly lower density. Hence it has a higher porosity and is slightly more shock sensitive. Here we describe the SURFplus model calibration for PBX 9012 using data from five shock-to-detonation transition (SDT) gas gun experiments by Burns and Chiquete, detonation front shape data from rate stick experiments and cylinder test experiment reported in Anderson et al., Jackson et al. The SDT experiments provide Pop plot data points (run distance-to-detonation) which characterize shock initiation, Lagrangian velocity time histories from embedded magnetic velocity gauges which give information on the reaction behind the lead shock, and Hugoniot data points for the reactants EOS. The rate stick experiments provide data on the curvature effect which characterize propagating detonation waves. The cylinder test experiments provide data on the detonation release isentrope used to calibrate the products EOS. The HE model uses a Davis reactants EOS with parameters that Burns and Chiquete [2020] fit to Hugoniot data, and Davis products EOS with parameters that Anderson et al. [2020] fit to cylinder test data.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

DOE OSTI2022

Star formation in outer rings of S0 galaxies: IV. NGC 254: A double-ringed S0 with gas counter-rotation

Although S0 galaxies are usually considered “red and dead”, they often demonstrate star formation organized into ring structures. We aim to clarify the nature of this phenomenon and how it differs from star formation in spiral galaxies. We investigated the nearby, moderate-luminosity S0 galaxy NGC 254 using long-slit spectroscopy taken with the South African Large Telescope and publicly available imaging data. Applying a full spectral fitting, we analyzed gaseous and stellar kinematics as well as ionized gas excitation and metallicity and stellar population properties resolved by radius. An advanced approach of simultaneously fitting spectra and photometric data allowed us to quantify the fraction of hidden counter-rotating stars in this galaxy. We find that the ionized gas is counter-rotating with respect to the stars throughout NGC 254 disk, indicating an external origin of the gas. We argue the gas-rich galaxy merger from retrograde orbit as a main source of counter-rotating material. The star formation fed by this counter-rotating gas occurs within two rings: an outer ring at R = 55' - 70" and an inner ring at R = 18". The star formation rate is weak, 0.02 solar mass per year in total, and the gas metallicity is slightly subsolar. We estimated that the accretion of the gas occurred about 1 Gyr ago, and about 1% of all stars have formed in situ from counter-rotating gas.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Probing gravity with the DES-CMASS sample and BOSS spectroscopy

ABSTRACT The DES-CMASS sample (DMASS) is designed to optimally combine the weak lensing measurements from the Dark Energy Survey (DES) and redshift-space distortions (RSD) probed by the CMASS galaxy sample from the Baryonic Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey. In this paper, we demonstrate the feasibility of adopting DMASS as the equivalent of CMASS for a joint analysis of DES and BOSS in the framework of modified gravity. We utilize the angular clustering of the DMASS galaxies, cosmic shear of the DES metacalibration sources, and cross-correlation of the two as data vectors. By jointly fitting the combination of the data with the RSD measurements from the CMASS sample and Planck data, we obtain the constraints on modified gravity parameters $\mu _0=-0.37^{+0.47}_{-0.45}$ and $\Sigma _0=0.078^{+0.078}_{-0.082}$. Our constraints of modified gravity with DMASS are tighter than those with the DES Year 1 redMaGiC sample with the same external data sets by 29 per cent for μ0 and 21 per cent for Σ0, and comparable to the published results of the DES Year 1 modified gravity analysis despite this work using fewer external data sets. This improvement is mainly because the galaxy bias parameter is shared and more tightly constrained by both CMASS and DMASS, effectively breaking the degeneracy between the galaxy bias and other cosmological parameters. Such an approach to optimally combine photometric and spectroscopic surveys using a photometric sample equivalent to a spectroscopic sample can be applied to combining future surveys having a limited overlap such as DESI and LSST.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2021

High Dose and Dose Rate 60 Co γ-Irradiation of High-Density Polyethylene

We have irradiated high-density polyethylene ribbons and cylinders to ~200 kGy at a dose rate of ~5 kGy day -1 , using a 60 Co source. The radiolytically-generated gas consists almost entirely of H 2 . Based on the time- and dose-dependence of the outgassing, we have determined the radiation- chemical yield for the evolved H 2 , as well as the diffusion coefficient of H 2 in HDPE. We find that the evolved gas yield G evolved depends on the interplay of sample geometry, experimental timescale, and the diffusion coefficient of H 2 in HDPE. When these factors facilitate completion of diffusion prior to gas quantification, such as for sub-mm-thickness ribbons, we measure a time- and dose-invariant value of G evolved = 0.0076 cm 3 std. H 2 J -1 that is in agreement with literature reports. When sample geometry and experiment timescale do not permit completion of diffusion, we measure a time- and dose-dependent value of G evolved . We have developed a model for the transient outgassing behavior of the cylinders, and fitted it to the experimental data. Based on these fits, we estimate a room-temperature diffusivity of D H 2 /HDPE ≈ 1.67 ± 0.12 x 10 -6 cm 2 s -1 for H 2 in HDPE, in good agreement with literature values. At present, the effects of dose rate and γ-photon energy on HDPE gas yield are not known and require further investigation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Photometry of Outer Solar System Objects from the Dark Energy Survey. I. Photometric Methods, Light-curve Distributions, and Trans-Neptunian Binaries

We report the methods of and initial scientific inferences from the extraction of precision photometric information for the >800 trans-Neptunian objects (TNOs) discovered in the images of the Dark Energy Survey (DES). Scene-modeling photometry is used to obtain shot-noise-limited flux measures for each exposure of each TNO, with background sources subtracted. Comparison of double-source fits to the pixel data with single-source fits are used to identify and characterize two binary TNO systems. A Markov Chain Monte Carlo method samples the joint likelihood of the intrinsic colors of each source as well as the amplitude of its flux variation, given the time series of multiband flux measurements and their uncertainties. A catalog of these colors and light-curve amplitudes A is included with this publication. We show how to assign a likelihood to the distribution q(A) of light-curve amplitudes in any subpopulation. Using this method, we find decisive evidence (i.e., evidence ratio <0.01) that cold classical (CC) TNOs with absolute magnitude 6 < H$_{r}$ < 8.2 are more variable than the hot classical (HC) population of the same H$_{r}$, reinforcing theories that the former form in situ and the latter arise from a different physical population. Resonant and scattering TNOs in this H$_{r}$ range have variability consistent with either the HCs or CCs. DES TNOs with H$_{r}$ < 6 are seen to be decisively less variable than higher-H$_{r}$ members of any dynamical group, as expected. More surprising is that detached TNOs are decisively less variable than scattering TNOs, which requires them to have distinct source regions or some subsequent differential processing.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗