Quantifying the Power System Resilience of the US Power Grid Through Weather and Power Outage Data Mapping
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24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
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Results for “Data Distribution”
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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Evaluation of Time-Series Gap-Filling Methods for Solar Irradiance Applications
A complete solar resource data set is essential for any stage of a solar energy project - from feasibility studies to daily operations. But measured or modeled solar resource data are prone to data gaps and data quality issues. To mitigate these issues, a data imputation process should be implemented to obtain a complete and reliable temporal and spatial data series. This study focused on imputing temporal scales by applying random and artificial data gaps and then implementing eight imputation methods, including the Kalman filtering and smoothing and stine interpolations. These methods were implemented on 1-minute to half hourly irradiance data for 1 year using a few locations from the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) and ground measurement data set. The results demonstrated that some of the simpler methods, such as the stine and linear interpolation methods, were the relatively best models based on the statistical metrics for imputing NSRDB and ground measurement data, respectively.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
A Full-Stack Exploration of Language-Based Parallelism in Fortran 2023
This poster explores native parallel features in Fortran 2023 through the lens of supporting applications with libraries, compilers, and parallel runtimes. The language revision informally named Fortran 2008 introduced parallelism in the form of Single Program Multiple Data (SPMD) execution with two broad feature sets: (1) loop-level parallelism via do concurrent and (2) a Partitioned Global Address Space (PGAS) comprised of distributed “coarray” data structures. Fortran’s native parallelism has demonstrated high performance [1] and reduced the burden of inserting what sometimes amounts to more directives than code. Several compilers support both feature sets, typically by translating do concurrent into serial do loops annotated by parallel directives and by translating SPMD/PGAS features into direct calls to a communication library. Our research focuses primarily on two questions: (1) can the compiler’s parallel runtime library be developed in the language being compiled (Fortran) and (2) can we define an interface to the runtime that liberates compilers from being hardwired to one runtime and vice versa. We are answering these questions by developing the Parallel Runtime Interface for Fortran (PRIF) [2] and the Co-Array Fortran Framework of Efficient Interfaces to Network Environments (Caffeine) [3]. Caffeine is initially targeting adoption by LLVM Flang, a new open-source Fortran compiler developed by a broad community in industry, academia, and government labs. We are also exploring the use of these features in Inference-Engine, a deep learning library designed to facilitate neural network training and inference for high-performance computing applications written in modern Fortran.
Rasmussen, Katherine↗
Alternatives to Contour Visualizations for Power Systems Data
Electrical grids are geographical and topological structures whose voltage states are challenging to represent accurately and efficiently for visual analysis. The current common practice is to use colored contour maps, yet these can misrepresent the data. We examine the suitability of four alternative visualization methods for depicting voltage data in a geographically dense distribution system - Voronoi polygons, H3 tessellations, S2 tessellations, and a network-weighted contour map. We find that Voronoi tessellations and network-weighted contour maps more accurately represent the statistical distribution of the data than regular contour maps.
MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING,POWER TRANSMISSION AND D↗
In situ multi-tier auto-ignition detection applied to dual-fuel combustion simulations
Here we use an anomaly detection methodology that is centered on analyzing fourth-order joint moments (co-kurtosis), particularly focusing on its application in auto-ignition of combustion problems with large numbers of species. Unsupervised anomaly detection is challenging to generalize across problem types and domains. A recent technique, centered on analyzing information in the fourth-order joint moment co-kurtosis, has shown promise, especially for high-dimensional scientific data. In this work we present developments to the co-kurtosis based anomaly detection method needed to make it effective and scalable for large-scale distributed scientific data, such as those generated by massively parallel simulations. An in situ co-kurtosis algorithm is employed as the anomaly detection method for identifying ignition kernels in simulations of turbulent combustion. Here, we extend an existing methodology which identifies regions of the domain where anomalies are present, and add another tier of anomaly detection where the individual samples contributing to the anomaly are identified. We apply this algorithm on-the-fly to a variety of turbulent reacting flow problems and compare it to the widely used (but significantly more expensive) chemical explosive mode analysis (CEMA). We demonstrate the ability of the method to detect and identify the onset of low and high temperature ignition which can be used for computational steering, as chemical and combustion anomalies occur intermittently at spatio-temporal locations unknown a priori. Finally, we apply our lightweight in situ algorithm to an exascale high-fidelity simulation with a total of 2.4 Trillion degrees of freedom, performed using an adaptive mesh refinement solver. Furthermore, through a scalability analysis, we show that the relative computational cost of this in-situ anomaly detection algorithm compared to an iteration of the reacting flow solver is negligible.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Passive Neutron Instrumentation and Applications
This chapter presents a description of most of the instruments that are currently in use for the measurement of plutonium and uranium using passive methods (without an external source). This includes the acquisition electronics as well as Singles counting methods, coincidence counting methods and multiplicity counting methods. The Singles counting applications include the measurement of waste and curium bearing materials. The coincidence counting applications include bulk plutonium, bulk uranium, waste and holdup measurements and fresh fuel assemblies. The multiplicity application description includes advantages and disadvantages and multiplicity detector design. There is also a description of some non-3He systems. The chapter concludes with a description of additional concepts: neutron imagers, list-mode data analysis, distributed source term analysis, unattended monitoring and MCNP modeling for detector design.
Coincidence shift register↗
OpenSAMPL: An Open Source Library for Timing and Synchronization Measurements and Analytics
Today's power grid operators are implementing timing and synchronization solutions that provide resilience to Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) vulnerabilities. These vendor-specific solutions often come with additional software applications that are designed to monitor that vendor's synchronization performance data. However, resilient timing architectures often resulting in multi-vendor solutions, including approaches that blend terrestrial clocks with space-based subscription services. In such an environment, collecting, analyzing, and visualizing data from a variety of sources within a single platform was heretofore not possible. To address this need, the US Department of Energy's Center for Alternative Synchronization and Timing (CAST) developed OpenSAMPL, the Open Synchronized Analytics and Monitoring Platform, an open-source Python framework for processing, loading, and observing clock measurement data from distributed devices. OpenSAMPL enables the ingestion of diverse clock-probe sources into a scalable time-series database and applies robust analytics. OpenSAMPL currently supports two vendor data pipelines, and will be extended to more in the near future, enabling seamless monitoring of a variety of timing and synchronization devices in a common environment.
Grant, Josh [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000163475060)↗
Logarithmic Resilience Risk Metrics That Address the Huge Variations in Blackout Cost
Resilience risk metrics must address the customer cost of the largest blackouts of greatest impact. However, there are huge variations in blackout cost in observed distribution utility data that make it impractical to properly estimate the mean large blackout cost and the corresponding risk. These problems are caused by the heavy tail observed in the distribution of customer costs. To solve these problems, we propose resilience metrics that describe large blackout risk using the mean of the logarithm of the cost of large-cost blackouts, the slope index of the heavy tail, and the frequency of large-cost blackouts.
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
Processing Particle Data Flows with SmartNICs
Many distributed applications implement complex data flows and need a flexible mechanism for routing data between producers and consumers. Recent advances in programmable network interface cards, or SmartNICs, represent an opportunity to offload data-flow tasks into the network fabric, thereby freeing the hosts to perform other work. System architects in this space face multiple questions about the best way to leverage SmartNICs as processing elements in data flows. In this paper, we advocate the use of Apache Arrow as a foundation for implementing data-flow tasks on SmartNICs. We report on our experiences adapting a partitioning algorithm for particle data to Apache Arrow and measure the on-card processing performance for the BlueField-2 SmartNIC. Our experiments confirm that the BlueField-2’s (de)compression hardware can have a significant impact on in-transit workflows where data must be unpacked, processed, and repacked.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
A Measurement-Based Adaptive Voltage Regulation Method Considering Topology Changes
This paper proposes an online adaptive data-driven distributed energy resource (DER) dispatch optimization method for voltage control considering topology changes. By using a local sensitivity factor (LSF)-enabled voltage control, traditional DER control can be reformulated into a linear programming (LP) problem, leading to faster computation speeds. Power injection alteration and topology changes are two common operational changes in the distribution network that can affect the LSF and voltage control performance. To address this issue, a robust estimation method is developed to adjust the sensitivity matrix at each time step for the time-varying power injection changes. When topology changes occur, only the allocated predominant LSF submatrices are updated based on measurement data, allowing for a fast adaptation to the system reconfiguration. Results obtained from a real distribution feeder in Southern California demonstrate its robustness as compared to traditional volt-var control and constant LSF matrix dispatch control methods.
DERs↗
Online PMU Missing Value Replacement Via Event-Participation Decomposition
We introduce a new method for online Phasor Measurement Unit (PMU) missing value replacement. Our approach allows us to decompose PMU event responses into a non-dynamic component (denoted the participation factor) that can be inferred directly from the past and a dynamic component that can be inferred directly from all other PMUs (denoted the event strength). When missing values occur, we can use these two components, which do not rely on the missing index, to estimate the correct value. The method is extremely fast and can easily be used for online applications. Furthermore, extensive testing on real power system event data reveals that our approach achieves state-of-the-art performance in terms of Mean Absolute Percent Errors (MAPEs) for PMU data dropped during event periods. Here, the method also yields an interpretable and simplified view of events for further analysis and applications. The method relies only on PMU data and does not take outside information such as network topology.
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
Machine Learning Potentials with the Iterative Boltzmann Inversion: Training to Experiment
Methodologies for training machine learning potentials (MLPs) with quantum-mechanical simulation data have recently seen tremendous progress. Experimental data have a very different character than simulated data, and most MLP training procedures cannot be easily adapted to incorporate both types of data into the training process. Here, we investigate a training procedure based on iterative Boltzmann inversion that produces a pair potential correction to an existing MLP using equilibrium radial distribution function data. By applying these corrections to an MLP for pure aluminum based on density functional theory, we observe that the resulting model largely addresses previous overstructuring in the melt phase. Interestingly, the corrected MLP also exhibits improved performance in predicting experimental diffusion constants, which are not included in the training procedure. The presented method does not require autodifferentiating through a molecular dynamics solver and does not make assumptions about the MLP architecture. Our results suggest a practical framework for incorporating experimental data into machine learning models to improve the accuracy of molecular dynamics simulations.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Investigating the ecological fallacy through sampling distributions constructed from finite populations
Correlation coefficients and linear regression values computed from group averages can differ from correlation coefficients and linear regression values computed using individual scores. This observation known as the ecological fallacy often assumes that all the individual scores are available from a population. In many situations, one must use a sample from the larger population. In such cases, the computed correlation coefficient and linear regression values will depend on the sample that is chosen and the underlying sampling distribution. The sampling distribution of correlation coefficients and linear regression values for group averages will be identical to the sampling distribution for individuals for normally distributed variables for random samples drawn from infinitely large continuous distributions. However, data that is acquired in practice is often acquired when sampling without replacement from a finite population. Our objective is to demonstrate through Monte Carlo simulations that the sampling distributions for correlation and linear regression will also be similar for individuals and group averages when sampling without replacement from normally distributed variables. These simulations suggest that when a random sample from a population is selected, the correlation coefficients and linear regression values computed from individual scores will not be more accurate in estimating the entire population values compared to samples when group averages are used as long as the sample size is the same.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Development of Steady-State and Dynamic Mass and Energy Constrained Neural Networks for Distributed Chemical Systems Using Noisy Transient Data
The paper presents the development of algorithms for mass and energy constrained neural network models that can exactly conserve the overall mass and energy of distributed chemical process systems, even though the noisy transient data used for optimal model training violate the same. In contrast to approximately satisfying mass and energy balance constraints of a system by soft penalization of objective function, algorithms have been developed for solving equality-constrained nonlinear optimization problems, thus providing the guarantee of exactly satisfying the system mass and energy conservation laws. For developing dynamic mass-energy constrained network models for distributed systems, hybrid series and parallel dynamic-static neural networks have been leveraged. The developed algorithms for solving both the training and forward problems are validated using both steady-state and dynamic data in the presence of various noise characteristics. The developed data-driven algorithms are flexible to exactly satisfy mass and energy balance constraints for dynamic chemical processes if the system holdup information is available. The proposed network structures and algorithms are applied to the development of data-driven lumped and distributed models of an adiabatic superheater/reheater system, a nonisothermal continuous stirred tank reactor, as well as an electrically heated plug-flow reactor system where one form of energy gets transformed to another. It has been observed that the mass-energy constrained neural networks yield a root mean squared error of <1% with respect to the system truth for the case studies evaluated in this work.
37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
Alternatives to Contour Visualizations for Power Systems Data
Electrical grids are geographical and topological structures whose voltage states are challenging to represent accurately and efficiently for visual analysis. The current common practice is to use colored contour maps, yet these can misrepresent the data. We examine the suitability of four alternative visualization methods for depicting voltage data in a geographically dense distribution system-Voronoi polygons, H3 tessellations, S2 tessellations, and a network-weighted contour map. We find that Voronoi tessellations and network-weighted contour maps more accurately represent the statistical distribution of the data than regular contour maps.
MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Development of Renewable Energy Data for Facilitating the Clean Energy Transition in Vietnam
Vietnam is transforming its power system with an increasing share of variable renewable energy (VRE) in the generation mix and plans to achieve 27% VRE by capacity in 2030 and 42% by capacity in 2045, as indicated by the draft Eighth Power Development Plan for 2020–-2045 (PDP8). Further increase in VRE penetration is possible with data-driven analysis where availability of data, specifically VRE data, becomes critical. NREL has worked with various stakeholders in Vietnam to create high-resolution multi-year VRE data publicly available to all. This paper reviews this new VRE data for Vietnam and how different stakeholders can use this data to inform VRE deployment decisions.
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
IM3 + EPRI Data Center Load Projections
This dataset contains scenarios of hourly total electricity demand with and without projected loads from data centers over the period 2022-2040. The root projections without data center demands are identical to those documented in Burleyson et al. 2024. In short, those projections encompass hourly electricity demands for 54 Balancing Authorities (BAs) in the United States across a range of eight of weather and socioeconomic scenarios. Refer to the root dataset and accompanying publication, Burleyson et al. 2025, for information about how those projections were generated. For this derivative dataset we used the base loads from the following scenarios: rcp45hotter_ssp3 rcp45hotter_ssp5 rcp85hotter_ssp3 rcp85hotter_ssp5 The root load projections did not reflect the drastic expansion of data centers that has occurred in the last several years to support artificial intelligence and cloud computing. To reflect growth in data center demand, a second set of load projections were created in which we layered in additional data center load projections based on the data center load growth scenarios described in a 2024 report by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI): "Powering Intelligence: Analyzing Artificial Intelligence and Data Center Energy Consumption". The EPRI projections from the report are included in this dataset (EPRI_2024_Projections.xlsx). That report contained annual state-level data center load projections for four year-over-year growth rates for data center demands: Low (3.71% annual growth) Moderate (5% annual growth) High (10% annual growth) Higher (15% annual growth) To homogenize the load projections with and without data centers we had to get them to a common scale. The first step was to take the EPRI annual state-level data center energy consumption values and convert them to 8760-hr loads for each year. We did that by assuming a flat (e.g., not weather- or time-sensitive) load profile and distributing the data center loads in each state evenly across all hours in a year. From there the loads were downscaled from the state-level to the county-level using 2019 county-level populations as weights. Finally, the county-level hourly data center loads were summed to the BA-level using the county-to-BA mapping underpinning the root load projections. The net result is 16 (4 weather and socioeconomic scenarios crossed with 4 data center load growth scenarios) unique load projections for the period 2022-2040. The file format follows that of the root dataset with a single additional column "Scaled_TELL_BA_Load_with_DC_MWh" that contains the hourly loads with the added data center loads for a given BA-year-scenario combination. Please refer to the readme file in the root dataset for more information on the file format.
Burleyson, Casey [Pacific Northwest National Labor↗
Transferable predictions of energetic and structural properties for refractory solid solution alloys across chemical compositions
We present a data-efficient approach to train graph neural networks (GNNs) on density functional theory (DFT) data for accurate and transferable predictions of energetic and structural properties of refractory solid solution alloys in the niobium-tantalum-vanadium (Nb-Ta-V) chemical space. We start by training the GNN model only on DFT data that describes refractory binary alloys niobium-tantalum (Nb-Ta), niobium-vanadium (Nb-V), and tantalum-vanadium (Ta-V) to predict formation enthalpy and root mean squared displacement. Once trained, the GNN predictions are tested on DFT data describing refractory ternary alloys Nb-Ta-V. While, unsurprisingly, direct transferability from binary to ternary is not sufficiently accurate, augmenting the training with only 1% of the available ternary data (uniformly distributed across the entire range of chemical compositions) improves significantly the quality of the GNN predictions. For comparison, we assess the transferability in the opposite direction by training GNN models on ternary Nb-Ta-V data and making predictions on binaries Nb-Ta, Nb-V, and Ta-V, which exhibits notably higher predictive errors. The proposed methodology, which favors transferability from lower-component to higher-component alloys, offers an efficient path towards avoiding the curse of dimensionality incurred when collecting DFT data for discovery and design of multi-component disordered alloys.
Density functional theory calculations↗