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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 343 records · Page 19

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DOE OSTI2013

Modelling Concentrating Solar Power with Thermal Energy Storage for Integration Studies (Presentation)

Concentrating solar power with thermal energy storage (CSP-TES) can provide multiple benefits to the grid, including low marginal cost energy and the ability to levelize load, provide operating reserves, and provide firm capacity. It is challenging to properly value the integration of CSP because of the complicated nature of this technology. Unlike completely dispatchable fossil sources, CSP is a limited energy resource, depending on the hourly and daily supply of solar energy. To optimize the use of this limited energy, CSP-TES must be implemented in a production cost model with multiple decision variables for the operation of the CSP-TES plant. We develop and implement a CSP-TES plant in a production cost model that accurately characterizes the three main components of the plant: solar field, storage tank, and power block. We show the effect of various modelling simplifications on the value of CSP, including: scheduled versus optimized dispatch from the storage tank and energy-only operation versus co-optimization with ancillary services.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2013

Modelling Concentrating Solar Power with Thermal Energy Storage for Integration Studies: Preprint

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

A generalized approximate control variate framework for multifidelity uncertainty quantification

We describe and analyze a variance reduction approach for Monte Carlo (MC) sampling that accelerates the estimation of statistics of computationally expensive simulation models using an ensemble of models with lower cost. These lower cost models — which are typically lower fidelity with unknown statistics — are used to reduce the variance in statistical estimators relative to a MC estimator with equivalent cost. We derive the conditions under which our proposed approximate control variate framework recovers existing multifidelity variance reduction schemes as special cases. We demonstrate that existing recursive/nested strategies are suboptimal because they use the additional low-fidelity models only to efficiently estimate the unknown mean of the first low-fidelity model. As a result, they cannot achieve variance reduction beyond that of a control variate estimator that uses a single low-fidelity model with known mean. However, there often exists about an order-of-magnitude gap between the maximum achievable variance reduction using all low-fidelity models and that achieved by a single low-fidelity model with known mean. We show that our proposed approach can exploit this gap to achieve greater variance reduction by using non-recursive sampling schemes. The proposed strategy reduces the total cost of accurately estimating statistics, especially in cases where only low-fidelity simulation models are accessible for additional evaluations. Several analytic examples and an example with a hyperbolic PDE describing elastic wave propagation in heterogeneous media are used to illustrate the main features of the methodology.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2022

Solar and Storage Techno-Economic Analysis Tutorial for the IEEE Photovoltaic Specialist Conference (PVSC)

This tutorial will highlight the most recent efforts from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to track solar photovoltaic (PV) technology trends and manufacturing costs, project levelized cost of electricity (LCOE), and project levelized cost of solar plus storage (LCOSS) for systems across the globe. We will begin with an overview of the global PV supply chain and 2021 benchmark input data for NREL's crystalline silicon (c-Si) and thin film PV module manufacturing cost models. The framework that we follow and will review during this tutorial provides a methodology to prepare bottom-up manufacturing cost models including the items within the U.S. Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) and the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS). For the polysilicon, wafer, cell conversion, and module assembly steps of the c-Si supply chain, and for thin film modules, we will review input data and methods useful for calculating the costs of goods sold (COGS); research and development (R&D) expenses; and sales, general, and business administration (S, G, &A) expenses. This 2021 benchmark analysis is compiled for state-of-the-art c-Si and thin film module manufacturing. We will also review methods for our 2021 system benchmark costs calculations and LCOE technoeconomic analysis of PV systems and solar plus storage systems. Next generation technologies that lower PV manufacturing and installation costs, reduce operations and maintenance (O&M) expenses, and improve system energy yield will also be highlighted. Techniques for comparing LCOE performance will also be reviewed. We look forward to sharing NREL's extensive work in these areas and discussing ideas for future directions.

cost models↗

NASA NTRS1975

Solar-assisted gas-energy water-heating feasibility for apartments

Studies of residential energy use, solar-energy technology for buildings, and the requirements for implementing technology in the housing industry led to a project to develop a solar water heater for apartments. A design study for a specific apartment was used to establish a solar water-heater cost model which is based on plumbing contractor bids and manufacturer estimates. The cost model was used to size the system to minimize the annualized cost of hot water. The annualized cost of solar-assisted gas-energy water heating is found to be less expensive than electric water heating but more expensive than gas water heating. The feasibility of a natural gas utility supplying the auxiliary fuel is evaluated. It is estimated that gas-utilizing companies will find it profitable to offer solar water heating as part of a total energy service option or on a lease basis when the price of new base-load supplies of natural gas reaches $2.50-$3.00 per million Btu.

Davis, E. S.↗

DOE OSTI2018

Manufacturing Competitiveness and Supply Chain Analyses for Hydrogen Refueling Stations

This slide deck was presented in the monthly FCTO webinar series (May 2017). The goal of this presentation was to share our latest results and remarks on the manufacturing competitiveness analysis of the hydrogen refueling stations (HRS). Manufacturing cost models were developed for major systems in the HRS such as compressors, storage tanks, chillers, heat exchangers, and dispensers. In addition to the cost models, we also discussed important remarks from our analysis for the international trade flows and global supply chain for the hydrogen refueling stations. The last part of the presentation also highlights effect of economies of scale and high production volumes on lowering the cost of the hydrogen at the pump.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

DOE OSTI2023

Reinforcement Learning for Load-balanced Parallel Particle Tracing

We explore an online reinforcement learning (RL) paradigm to dynamically optimize parallel particle tracing performance in distributed-memory systems. Our method combines three novel components: (1) a work donation algorithm, (2) a high-order workload estimation model, and (3) a communication cost model. First, we design an RL-based work donation algorithm. Our algorithm monitors workloads of processes and creates RL agents to donate data blocks and particles from high-workload processes to low-workload processes to minimize program execution time. The agents learn the donation strategy on the fly based on reward and cost functions designed to consider processes' workload changes and data transfer costs of donation actions. Second, we propose a workload estimation model, helping RL agents estimate the workload distribution of processes in future computations. Third, we design a communication cost model that considers both block and particle data exchange costs, helping RL agents make effective decisions with minimized communication costs. We demonstrate that our algorithm adapts to different flow behaviors in large-scale fluid dynamics, ocean, and weather simulation data. Our algorithm improves parallel particle tracing performance in terms of parallel efficiency, load balance, and costs of I/O and communication for evaluations with up to 16,384 processors.

Distributed and parallel particle tracing↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

UVO to Far-IR Mirror Technology Development: Year 2 Status

UVO to Far-IR (UVO-FIR) mirror technology development project is a multiyear effort initiated in Fiscal Year (FY) 2022 to mature the Technology Readiness Level (TRL) of critical technologies required to enable ultra-stable telescope of the Habitable Worlds Observatory (HWO) mission. 2023/24 accomplishments include: continued investigations into gravity sag by comparing rotation test vs flip test, quantifying gravity sag as a function of temperature and designing mount for mirror whose G-sag with elevation angle is only coma. Significant progress in developing a methodology for specify optical surface microstructure, contamination cleanliness level and allowable micrometeoroid impacts. Support of HWO. And, a parametric cost model for x-ray telescopes and a parametric volume cost model for normal incidence telescopes.

H. Philip Stahl↗

DOE OSTI2024

Incorporating Wind Turbine Choice in High-Resolution Geospatial Supply Curve and Capacity Expansion Models

To achieve national decarbonization goals, U.S. annual deployment of wind energy will need to increase by at least fivefold compared to the recent past. Modeling and analysis frameworks can help inform where and how wind energy deployment might occur and thereby help enable the achievement of decarbonization goals. However, most prior wind energy modeling and analysis studies rely on generalized representations of wind energy technologies. Since wind energy technology advancements are expected to increase the competitiveness of wind energy, it is important to incorporate more detailed representations of turbine technology into wind energy modeling. Here we present a new method that incorporates wind turbine choice into the technology representation of land-based wind energy in long-term planning models. Our method integrates three previously published modeling and analysis capabilities: 1) bottom-up cost modeling to estimate future technology costs, 2) geospatial modeling to represent siting decisions, and 3) power sector modeling to evaluate potential deployment. We refer to this approach as a "customized turbine choice" methodology because it creates a composite turbine scenario by choosing from multiple wind turbine technologies—using site-specific optimized turbine layout and selecting the least-cost technology at each location. We demonstrate the capabilities of this new modeling pipeline by examining how the selection of four different wind turbine configurations might evolve from 2021 through 2040. Our results show that using our customized turbine choice methodology could lead to higher estimates for wind future deployment, which indicates that more simplified modeling might underestimate the role that wind energy could play in meeting decarbonization goals. Future research is needed to further explore the implications of turbine choice and to better inform technology researchers, original equipment manufacturers, and other wind industry stakeholders about the market potential of different wind turbine technologies.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2018

Evaluating the Cost Benefits of U.S. Utility-Scale Photovoltaics Plus Energy Storage Systems

Utility-scale photovoltaics (PV) system market growth has been rapid for several years. Today, with the cost reductions of energy storage technologies, the application of combing PV and energy storage has become feasible and beneficial, especially for the areas that only have PV standalone systems and need to shift the peak load to meet the evening electricity demand. Overall, the utility-scale PV plus energy storage systems can provide dispatchable energy and reliable capacity. This study details cost factors, including labor costs, material costs, overhead, and permitting costs using a systemlevel bottom-up cost modeling approach. We use this model to benchmark PV plus storage installation system cost and identify cost difference for AC and DC coupled systems and duration variation. Finally, we assess the cost reduction opportunities of co-locating PV system with energy storage system in order to indicate the possible economic impacts of PV plus storage configuration and help future research and development (R&D) effects in the context of U.S. energy storage policymaking.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Marmot

Marmot is a data formatting and visualization tool for production cost modelling results. It provides an efficient way to view PLEXOS production cost modeling results quickly, while also creating publication ready figures and data tables.

Levie, Daniel↗

DOE OSTI2022

System Resilience Benefits of Dual-Fuel Capable Generators

The growing dependency on natural gas (NG) for power generation raises challenges for ensuring the resilience of power systems during extreme cold weather. Dual-fuel capable generators that can switch from burning NG to distillate fuel oil during an NG shortage over one way to alleviate these challenges. In this study, the impacts of gas unavailability on the IEEE 73-bus reliability test system (RTS) with 2019 updated generation mixture are explored. An extension to the standard production cost model formulation of unit commitment and economic dispatch is proposed to allow the representation of dual-fuel capable generators that can switch fuels between NG and distillate oil with a specified oil tank capacity and tank refueling capability. The operation of the system under gas unavailability with 0%, 25%, 50%, 75%, and 100% of combined cycle and combustion turbine generators as dual-fuel capable with a one-day supply of fuel oil are simulated using PLEXOS, a production cost model. The dual-fuel generator performance, unserved energy, and system costs are fully assessed.

dual-fuel capable generator↗

DOE OSTI2022

Modelling physiological costs to assess impacts of climate change on amphibians in Yellowstone National Park, U.S.A

Not Available

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Low-Cost, High-Performance Carbon Fiber for Compressed Natural Gas Storage Tanks (Final Technical Report – Down Select Report)

The aim of this project is to reduce the cost of Type IV, carbon fiber (CF) composite overwrap compressed gas storage tanks by reducing the cost of CF and CF composites. The project team worked to reduce the cost of CF by exploring and testing opportunities for a low-cost alternative precursor material for CF production to supplant market-dominant and costly polyacrylonitrile (PAN). Concurrently, the team aimed to reduce the cost of the tanks at the composite level by improving the interfacial adhesion between the fibers and the matrix resin through the incorporation of low-cost nanoparticles recycled from waste materials, which would reduce the volume of costly CF required to achieve the same tank performance. At the end of the first year, the project team selected mesophase pitch as the primary precursor candidate from a field of materials based on the superior mechanical performance and cost-saving potential. During the second year, the team produced CFs derived from mesophase pitch achieving an average tensile strength of 365.6 ksi and average tensile modulus of 40.74 Msi. Facility availability for spinning and converting these fibers at greater scale has hindered scale-up demonstration, but the team has identified opportunities to conduct this work in the near term. Cost modeling shows that these mesophase pitch-derived CFs can be up to 40% less expensive than PAN-derived CFs due to the lower cost of the feedstock material, higher throughput, greater conversion yield, and lower cost spinning method and compared to PAN. Additionally, the team has demonstrated at lab-scale that nanoparticle coating CFs can significantly increase the interfacial shear strength and load transfer efficiency of CFs in a matrix. Single filament pull-out testing showed a 27% average increase in max interfacial shear strength due to this coating. A continuous method of applying these coatings to a tow of CF has been developed for scale-up. 26 m tows of coated CFs were produced using this system and formed into composite ring samples for ASTM ring burst testing. Issues with the testing protocol have limited assessment of these results. A prototype Type IV tank was designed to meet ANSI HGV2 standards, and the design criteria set out by DOE, using the CF properties developed by the team paired with a proprietary resin matrix, a polyamide liner, and aluminum end bosses. The tank weighs 153.1 kg and with a total capacity of 5.8 kg H2 (5.6 kg usable), which yields a gravimetric capacity of 1.17 kWh/kg. Cost modeling predicts that the tank will have a projected cost of $15.73/kWh. Tank performance modeling does not include considerations for fiber-matrix load transfer efficiency improvements offered by nanoparticle coating method.

08 HYDROGEN↗

NASA NTRS1975

Development of a solar-powered residential air conditioner: Economic analysis

The results of investigations aimed at the development of cost models to be used in the economic assessment of Rankine-powered air conditioning systems for residential application are summarized. The rationale used in the development of the cost model was to: (1) collect cost data on complete systems and on the major equipment used in these systems; (2) reduce these data and establish relationships between cost and other engineering parameters such as weight, size, power level, etc; and (3) derive simple correlations from which cost-to-the-user can be calculated from performance requirements. The equipment considered in the survey included heat exchangers, fans, motors, and turbocompressors. This kind of hardware represents more than 2/3 of the total cost of conventional air conditioners.

Source record↗

DOE OSTI2019

A multi-scale calibration approach for process-oriented aggregated building energy demand models

Long-term energy planning relies largely on projections of future energy demand and hourly load profiles. Aggregate building models are increasingly being utilized to characterize the sensitivity of current and future building stocks to changes in climate, population, and building technology on city-to-regional-to-national scales. Due to challenges in the availability of data, those analyses have been limited to projection of energy demand at a single scale, usually state or country, while long-term planning power system models and production cost models might operate at different spatial scales such as energy regions which are focused on ensuring adequate generation infrastructure. In this work, we propose and evaluate a novel method to calibrate an aggregate building energy demand model (PNNL’s BEND model) against the best available data at the spatial scale of balancing authorities. This approach extends previous work on aggregated building energy demand by facilitating analysis of building energy demand across scales, in particular policy and operational decision-making scales. We show that the bias-corrected model estimates building electric loads reasonably well compared with estimates from a statistical model, but has the additional feature of flexibility across spatial scales. While the calibration approach is presently U.S.-centric and associated with U.S. energy regions, it can be extrapolated to other worldwide regions with similar scale challenges between policy and operational implementation decision making. We discuss the significant challenges involved in formulating and calibrating a complex physical model based on simulations of roughly 100,000 individual buildings against available aggregate regional electric load data and highlight areas for potential future work and improved data collection.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2026

A Co-Simulation Framework for Steady-State Analyses of Multiple Droop-based MTdc Grids in Continental-Scale Systems

The growing scale and complexity of planning continental hybrid ac and multi-terminal dc (MTdc) systems require scalable steady-state modeling and analysis approaches not currently available in commercial tools. This paper presents a comprehensive multi-fidelity model-conversion framework that enables the efficient transition of MTdc grid models from production cost modeling (PCM) and approximated ac power flow to detailed ac–MTdc power flow for large-scale planning studies. The core of this framework is a scalable co-simulation approach that, for the first time, enables power flow analysis in continental-scale ac–MTdc systems. It seamlessly couples commercial ac solvers with a detailed MTdc grid model that incorporates droop-based control and current-limiting strategies of multiple meshed MTdc grids. Leveraging this capability, an evaluation framework to systematically assess and compare different MTdc power redispatch strategies under ac and dc contingencies is introduced. The proposed framework and algorithm are evaluated using a combined Western and Eastern Interconnection system with 11 MTdc grids of various sizes, showing a coherent transition from PCM to detailed ac–MTdc power flow and improved system performance in voltage regulation and line overload mitigation following typical contingencies.

Nguyen, Quan H.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Platform Agnostic Streaming Data Application Performance Models

The mapping of computational needs onto execution resources is, by and large, a manual task, and users are frequently guided simply by intuition and past experiences. We present a queueing theory based performance model for streaming data applications that takes steps towards a better understanding of resource mapping decisions, thereby assisting application developers to make good mapping choices. The performance model (and associated cost model) are agnostic to the specific properties of the compute resource and application, simply characterizing them by their achievable data throughput. We illustrate the model with a pair of applications, one chosen from the field of computational biology and the second is a classic machine learning problem.

Faber, Clayton↗