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At least 343 records · Page 19

PowerMappeR: Power-Optimized Mapping of SNNs onto ReRAM Crossbars coupled via Packet-Switched NoCs

Many recent efforts in developing hardware-accelerated spiking neural networks (SNNs) are characterized by deep co-design between algorithms, architectures, and devices. Architectural advances overcome device constraints by coupling together many small resistive-RAM (ReRAM) crossbars via a network-on-chip (NoC) for neuromorphic component operation. Concurrently, improved SNN training methods increase accuracy and structural sparsity in networks despite growing problem sizes. Finally, compilers leverage these attributes to minimize area and inter-crossbar communication while mapping large SNNs to sophisticated architectures. However, for compiler-driven co-design to realize increasingly complex and profitable optimizations, a compile-time view of power consumption is critical. We present PowerMappeR to express and optimize over mapping-, architecture-, and device-specific power consumption information. By modeling the dynamic power of well-established components, we develop an integer linear programming (ILP)-based, encoding-agnostic, parametric power estimation model. Using this model, we demonstrate practical improvements in area and inter-crossbar communication by 0%–9.5% and 1.4%–5.1%, respectively. We also limit hotspot formation during optimization, achieving comparable or better results in targeted metrics with up to 96.4%–97.1% restriction of hotspot magnitude. Finally, we introduce profile-guided formulations to reduce worst-case and expected-case hotspot magnitude by 40.7%–69.5% and 40.6%–56.3%, respectively. Optimizing worst-case hotspot magnitude incidentally improves expected-case magnitude by 10.85%–33.45%. Reciprocally, optimizing expected-case magnitude incidentally improves worst-case magnitude by 4.33%–39.87%. Validation against hardware simulators confirms that PowerMappeR can decrease dynamic power consumption by 12.6%–27.3%.

Pohl, Devin [ORNL] (ORCID:0009000040149027)↗

Development of an Ultrahigh-bandwidth Phase Contrast Imaging System for detection of electron scale turbulence and Gigahertz Radio-Frequency Waves

The study of waves and turbulence is vital to the development of future reactor-grade plasma devices developed in the quest for fusion energy. These fluctuations are responsible for moving heat and particles across the magnetic field, and a predictive understanding of them is needed to achieve the density and temperature required to sustain a plasma fusion reaction. While many techniques have been developed for measuring waves and fluctuations, every measurement method has limitations. There are relatively few techniques for measuring very high frequency fluctuations, such as radio frequency waves injected to heat the plasma, unstable waves driven by suprathermal particles, or short wavelength electrostatic waves driven by electron temperature or density gradients. The present project builds upon the proven phase contrast imaging (PCI) technique to extend the response of the diagnostic by orders of magnitude in frequency and almost a factor of ten in spatial resolution. PCI provides a measurement of electron density based on small angle scattering of a CO-2 laser beam by using optical techniques to render a phase shift as an intensity change on a detector. Due to the telecommunications revolution, technological development by manufacturers has focused on components in the near -infrared, so that high- quality lasers and detectors at 1.55 µm are readily available. Shifting PCI design to a new, shorter wavelength has numerous advantages and challenges. Similar detector performance is available with room-temperature arrays with GHz bandwidth, while the detector arrays for 10.6 µm required liquid nitrogen cooling and were therefore limited to a bandwidth of about 1 MHz. Shifting to a shorter wavelength reduces the angle at which the laser beam scatters off of plasma waves, allowing more such scattered components to pass through the aperture of the vacuum vessel port and be collected by the PCI, which increases the spatial resolution. Concomitant with these benefits, various questions of performance arise. At shorter laser wave- length, the sensitivity to mirror and lens quality is increased, the contribution of the laser to the overall system noise is increased, and the sensitivity to vibrations is increased. The custom optical components at the heart of the PCI technique were required to be properly scaled for the shorter wavelength, so fabrication technologies needed to be explored. This project was designed to show that a low noise, high response PCI system at 1.55 µm could be constructed and operated, and then to quantify potential issues to allow extrapolation to a full-size production system providing physics measurements on a large plasma device. The first stage, producing the custom optical component called a Phase Plate, was successfully achieved using two methods. First, an easily reproduced masking and coating technique was able to produce good phase plates with the required parameters. Second, a nanofabrication technique was found to produce extremely high quality phase plates at a competitive price. The PCI constructed with the new phase plates and 1.55 µm laser was found to provide excellent wavelength measurements with the theoretically expected response. The sensitivity to optical surface quality was found to be in line with previous measurements at 10.6 µm. The observed signal-to-noise ratio was similar to the theoretically expected value. The effect of vibrations on PCI was studied with the first measurement of the effect of beam motion on PCI response and comparison to theory, allowing for a quantitative prediction of the effect of vibrations on a production PCI system and the requirements for improved beam stabilization. PCI is an extremely cost-effective method to provide a low noise, absolutely calibrated measurement of plasma fluctuations across a wide spatial scale. This project has shown that a 1.55 µm PCI using modern techniques and components is less expensive than the 10.6 µm PCI of a few years ago, with the largest savings in phase plate fabrication and the infrared detector array.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

An Analytical Model of Erosive Wear of BioMass Comminution Components

An analytical erosion model that relates critical process parameters (speed and impingement angle) to critical material attributes of inorganic mineral species in feedstock (density, size, aspect ratio) and substrate (hardness, toughness, and fatigue ductility) was applied to model wear in pretreatment milling operations. Results of the model were compared to experimental measurements of wear produced using the Accelerated Wear Test (AWT) rig at Idaho National Laboratory (INL). Results showed that there is good agreement between predicted and measured performance, and that a quality-by-design (QbD) tool can be developed to predict component reliability based on scientific engineering principles in lieu of trial-and-error approaches.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Crowding-Induced Spatial Organization of Gene Expression in Cell-Sized Vesicles

Cell-free protein synthesis is an important tool for studying gene expression and harnessing it for applications. In cells, gene expression is regulated in part by the spatial organization of transcription and translation. Unfortunately, current cell-free approaches are unable to control the organization of molecular components needed for gene expression, which limits the ability to probe and utilize its effects. In this work, we show, using complementary computational and experimental approaches, that macromolecular crowding can be used to control the spatial organization and translational efficiency of gene expression in cell-sized vesicles. Computer simulations and imaging experiments reveal that, as crowding is increased, DNA plasmids become localized at the inner surface of vesicles. Ribosomes, in contrast, remain uniformly distributed, demonstrating that crowding can be used to differentially organize components of gene expression. We further carried out cell-free protein synthesis reactions in cell-sized vesicles and quantified mRNA and protein abundance. At sufficiently high levels of crowding, we observed localization of mRNA near vesicle surfaces, a decrease in translational efficiency and protein abundance, and anomalous scaling of protein abundance as a function of vesicle size. These results are consistent with high levels of crowding causing altered spatial organization and slower diffusion. Our work demonstrates a straightforward way to control the organization of gene expression in cell-sized vesicles and provides insight into the spatial regulation of gene expression in cells.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Parametric Study of the Influence of Support Type, Presence of Platinum on Support, and Ionomer Content on the Microstructure of Polymer Electrolyte Fuel Cell Catalyst Layers

We report Ultra-small angle X-ray scattering (USAXS) was employed to investigate the effects of carbon support type, the presence of platinum on carbon, and ionomer loading on the microstructure of polymer electrolyte fuel cell (PEFC) catalyst layers (CLs). Particle size distributions (PSDs), obtained from fitting the measured scattering data were used to interpret the size of carbon aggregates (40–300 nm) and agglomerates (>400 nm) from two-component carbon/ionomer and three-component platinum/carbon/ionomer CLs. Two types of carbon supports were investigated: high surface area carbon (HSC) and Vulcan XC-72. CLs with a range of perfluorosulfonic acid (PFSA) ionomer to carbon (I/C) ratios (0.2–1.2) and also with perfluoroimide acid (PFIA) ionomer were studied to evaluate the effect of ionomer on CL microstructure. The carbon type, the presence of platinum, and ionomer loading were all found to significantly impact carbon agglomeration. The extent of Pt/C agglomeration in the CL was found to increase with increasing ionomer and platinum concentration and to decrease with increasing carbon surface area. Platinum electrochemically-active surface area (ECSA) and local oxygen transport resistance (R nF ) were correlated to the CL microstructure to yield relationships affecting electrode performance.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Are coupled renewable-battery power plants more valuable than independently sited installations?

Coupled renewable-battery powerplants differ from the traditional concept of independent siting of electricity resources within transmission networks. Prior research on the value proposition and cost savings from coupling did not consider the geographic constraint of co-location. This paper fills the gap by assessing how pricing volatility differences between nodes within electricity markets impact the system value of coupled renewable-battery projects as compared to independent VRE and battery installations. We use wholesale power market prices from 2012–2019 across the seven main U.S. independent system operators (ISOs) with a linear optimization program to compare the electricity market value of coupled projects to the value of the same underlying sub-components, deployed separately. We find that additional value from adding a 4-hour battery sized to 50% of renewable-plant nameplate capacity is $\$$10/MWh across ISOs on average. The highest boost occurs in California ($\$$15/MWh), where the value of adding storage to solar rises over time in tandem with increased solar penetration in the region. If renewables and batteries are deployed independently, we estimate that $\$$12.5/MWh of additional value could be achieved because of more flexibility on battery siting and operation. The $\$$12.5/MWh coupling penalty is reduced to $\$$1.6/MWh when considering alternative approaches to integrating battery storage. This result implies that renewable-battery power plants will play an increasing role in electricity systems if they can be built for $\$$2–$\$$13/MWh less than independent projects of comparable size. However, the wide regional variation in coupling penalties, along with the importance of conditions captured in our sensitivity cases, suggests the tradeoff between coupling penalties and savings will vary by situation. Therefore, roles exist for independent and coupled projects from a system optimization perspective.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Keep it short: Exploring the impacts of configuration choices on the recent economics of solar-plus-battery and wind-plus-battery hybrid energy plants

Coupled renewable-battery powerplants differ from the traditional concept of independent siting of electricity resources within transmission networks. Prior research on the value proposition and cost savings from coupling did not consider the geographic constraint of co-location. This paper fills the gap by assessing how pricing volatility differences between nodes within electricity markets impact the system value of coupled renewable-battery projects as compared to independent VRE and battery installations. We use wholesale power market prices from 2012–2019 across the seven main U.S. independent system operators (ISOs) with a linear optimization program to compare the electricity market value of coupled projects to the value of the same underlying sub-components, deployed separately. We find that additional value from adding a 4-hour battery sized to 50% of renewable-plant nameplate capacity is $\$10$/MWh across ISOs on average. The highest boost occurs in California ($\$15$/MWh), where the value of adding storage to solar rises over time in tandem with increased solar penetration in the region. If renewables and batteries are deployed independently, we estimate that $\$12.5$/MWh of additional value could be achieved because of more flexibility on battery siting and operation. The $\$12.5$/MWh coupling penalty is reduced to $\$1.6$/MWh when considering alternative approaches to integrating battery storage. This result implies that renewable-battery power plants will play an increasing role in electricity systems if they can be built for $\$2$–$\$13$/MWh less than independent projects of comparable size. However, the wide regional variation in coupling penalties, along with the importance of conditions captured in our sensitivity cases, suggests the tradeoff between coupling penalties and savings will vary by situation. Therefore, roles exist for independent and coupled projects from a system optimization perspective.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Validation Simulations for Multi-Component Mixture Model [Slides]

Set up and ran a large, 3D, 3 component Rayleigh-Taylor Mixing Simulation: Match initial conditions from; Run with multiple mesh sizes to demonstrate convergence to expected mixing layer growth rate. Wrote and tested new FLAG capability to enforce a specified temporal temperature profile.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Experimental study of sprays with isooctane, hexane, ethanol and their binary mixtures under different flash boiling intensities

Here, this work investigated the behaviors of single-component and multi-component sprays under different flash boiling intensities. Isooctane, hexane, ethanol, isooctane-hexane, and isooctane-ethanol mixtures were used as test fuels. The pressure ratio of the ambient pressure over saturation pressure (R p ) was used as the indicator of the superheated degree. Macroscopic characteristics of the sprays under 10 different R p (1.1 to 0.14) were investigated using Diffused Backlight Imaging (DBI). Droplet size, which revealed the spray microscopic characteristics, was also investigated using Phase Doppler Anemometry (PDA). The results showed that ambient pressure reduction led to higher flash boiling intensity, significant spray morphology changes, and smaller droplet size, regardless of the fuel type and blend ratios. Spray collapse was observed for all sprays once R p dropped below 0.3. Spray collapse dramatically increased the liquid penetration length, expanded the near-field spray angle, and reduced the far-field angle for sprays with all the fuels. Fuel properties, such as the latent heat of vaporization, had significant impacts on droplet size distributions, thus altering the liquid penetration length and spray angles. Under similar R p , sprays with high ethanol content generally had larger droplet sizes compared with other fuel sprays due to the high latent heat of vaporization. The larger droplets caused the high ethanol content sprays to be more resistant to the plume trajectory change, resulting in a smaller far-field spray angle variations with changing R p . At R p of 0.28, sprays with the similar latent heat of vaporization have similar droplet sizes, and droplet sizes at different radial locations were also similar to each other.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Comprehensive analysis of disruption mitigation methods using gas and pellet-like injections in ITER-like Tokamaks

Abstract Inert-gas shielding could be an effective mechanism for protection of plasma facing surfaces (PFS) against plasma particles impact and photon radiation heat loads during transient events in fusion devices. Neutral gas injection is one promising way to mitigate erosion of tokamak components and contamination. The objective of this work is to study and optimize mitigation methods using neutral gas and pellet-like injections to decrease the heat load to the divertor surfaces and to prevent vaporization of the various internal surfaces due to transient events in ITER-like devices. The integrated self-consistent models implemented in the HEIGHTS package was used for detailed analysis of the potential secondary plasma generation from the injected inert gas, its radiative characteristics, and shielding effectiveness. We varied the density, size, and location of an argon gas cloud to minimize the disruption energy deposited into the divertor components. We also investigated innovative ways for minor changes in ITER-like internal design to mitigate disruptions. We found the optimum parameters to fully protect ITER tokamak surfaces from erosion and vaporization during plasma instabilities. This preliminary analysis showed that using Ar gas injection methods could lead to enhancement in components lifetime in ITER-like and future DEMO devices with minor design changes.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

Ultrastrong colloidal crystal metamaterials engineered with DNA

Lattice-based constructs, often made by additive manufacturing, are attractive for many applications. Typically, such constructs are made from microscale or larger elements; however, smaller nanoscale components can lead to more unusual properties, including greater strength, lighter weight, and unprecedented resiliencies. Here, solid and hollow nanoparticles (nanoframes and nanocages; frame size: ~15 nanometers) were assembled into colloidal crystals using DNA, and their mechanical strengths were studied. Nanosolid, nanocage, and nanoframe lattices with identical crystal symmetries exhibit markedly different specific stiffnesses and strengths. Unexpectedly, the nanoframe lattice is approximately six times stronger than the nanosolid lattice. Nanomechanical experiments, electron microscopy, and finite element analysis show that this property results from the buckling, densification, and size-dependent strain hardening of nanoframe lattices. Last, these unusual open architectures show that lattices with structural elements as small as 15 nanometers can retain a high degree of strength, and as such, they represent target components for making and exploring a variety of miniaturized devices.

42 ENGINEERING↗

First Principles Modeling of Cluster-Based Solid Electrolytes (Final Technical Report)

Given the trend of global warming and the urgent need to transition from fossil fuels to green energy, lithium-ion batteries continue to be an integral part of our lives. Design, development, and understanding of novel solid-state electrolyte materials play the key role for achieving next-generation all-solid-state batteries with high energy and great safety. The current modeling schemes to develop advanced solid electrolytes are focusing on materials in which the building blocks are individual atoms. Our theoretical approach is a paradigm shift in solid-state electrolyte design. Instead of atoms, we focus on clusters as the building blocks and model these solid electrolytes and their interfaces with electrodes, especially Li-metal anode, for their successful implementation in solid-state batteries. The advantage of using the cluster ions to replace elemental ions is that the size, composition, and shape of the former can be tailored to achieve higher ionic conductivity at room temperature, electrochemical stability, and charge transfer across solid-solid interfaces than conventional materials. Specifically, the project includes: (1) Developing cluster-based solid electrolytes, where the halogen components are replaced by cluster ions that mimic the chemistry of halogens but are characterized by additional degrees of freedom, including the size, shape, composition, and motional dynamics under excitation. (2) Providing a fundamental understanding of the ion conduction mechanism in the developed cluster-based solid electrolytes; (3) Modeling the interfacial properties (i.e., structural, chemical, and transport properties) between the cluster-based solid electrolytes and electrodes at the atomic level. For the cluster-based solid electrolytes incompatible with the Li-metal anode or cathode materials, potential candidates for interfacial coatings are identified and studied. (4) Providing a theoretical framework towards optimizing critical parameters of the solid-state electrolytes that guides experimentalists to attain desired cathode-electrode interface for cluster-based solid-state electrolytes.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

ArborX: A Performance Portable Geometric Search Library

Searching for geometric objects that are close in space is a fundamental component of many applications. The performance of search algorithms comes to the forefront as the size of a problem increases both in terms of total object count as well as in the total number of search queries performed. Scientific applications requiring modern leadership-class supercomputers also pose an additional requirement of performance portability, i.e., being able to efficiently utilize a variety of hardware architectures. In this article, we introduce a new open-source C++ search library, ArborX, which we have designed for modern supercomputing architectures. Herein, we examine scalable search algorithms with a focus on performance, including a highly efficient parallel bounding volume hierarchy implementation, and propose a flexible interface making it easy to integrate with existing applications. We demonstrate the performance portability of ArborX on multi-core CPUs and GPUs and compare it to the state-of-the-art libraries such as Boost.Geometry.Index and nanoflann.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Fabrication and Testing of Two Passively Actuated Creep-Fatigue Surveillance Test Articles

This report describes the fabrication, testing, and analysis of two families of passively-actuated creep-fatigue test articles. These test articles induce cyclic mechanical load in a test section actuated solely through a mismatch in the thermal expansion coefficient of two materials and driven by a change in the specimen temperature. Test articles of this type could provide material degradation data for a materials surveillance program in future operating molten salt reactors, where variations in the reactor temperature caused by normal or upset cycles would provide the temperature change in the sample. The purpose of the current experimental campaign is to demonstrate the feasibility of fabricating realistically-sized test articles, test the articles under repeated thermal cycling to assess their robustness, particularly the reliability of the bimetallic welds, and collect strain data from instrumented samples to validate the methods used to size the test articles to match key features of the mechanical response of operating reactor components. The thermal cycling tests are ongoing but the test data to date suggests the current test article design is viable, robust, and can be successfully designed to match a target mechanical response. Finally, the report describes preliminary work on welding refractory alloys to 316H stainless steel. Replacing the test article driver material, currently Alloy 617, with a refractory would increase the coefficient of thermal expansion mismatch and support further miniaturization of the test articles.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Development of a New Aggregation Method to Remove Nanoplastics from the Ocean: Proof of Concept Using Mussel Exposure Tests

The overproduction and mismanagement of plastics has led to the accumulation of these materials in the environment, particularly in the marine ecosystem. Once in the environment, plastics break down and can acquire microscopic or even nanoscopic sizes. Given their sizes, microplastics (MPs) and nanoplastics (NPs) are hard to detect and remove from the aquatic environment, eventually interacting with marine organisms. This research mainly aimed to achieve the aggregation of micro- and nanoplastics (MNPs) to ease their removal from the marine environment. To this end, the size and stability of polystyrene (PS) MNPs were measured in synthetic seawater with the different components of the technology (ionic liquid and chitosan). The MPs were purchased in their plain form, while the NPs displayed amines on their surface (PS NP-NH2). The results showed that this technology promoted a significant aggregation of the PS NP-NH2, whereas, for the PS MPs, no conclusive results were found, indicating that the surface charge plays an essential role in the MNP aggregation process. Moreover, to investigate the toxicological potential of MNPs, a mussel species (M. galloprovincialis) was exposed to different concentrations of MPs and NPs, separately, with and without the technology. In this context, mussels were sampled after 7, 14, and 21 days of exposure, and the gills and digestive glands were collected for analysis of oxidative stress biomarkers and histological observations. In general, the results indicate that MNPs trigger the production of reactive oxygen species (ROS) in mussels and induce oxidative stress, making gills the most affected organ. Yet, when the technology was applied in moderate concentrations, NPs showed adverse effects in mussels. The histological analysis showed no evidence of MNPs in the gill’s tissues.

Cid-Samamed, Antonio (ORCID:0000000205073394)↗

A Near-infrared Look at AGN Feedback in Bulgeless Galaxies

While it is generally believed that supermassive black holes (SMBHs) lie in most galaxies with bulges, few SMBHs have been confirmed in bulgeless galaxies. Identifying such a population could provide important insights to the BH seed population and secular BH growth. To this end, we obtained near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopic observations of a sample of low-redshift bulgeless galaxies with mid-infrared colors suggestive of active galactic nuclei (AGNs). We find additional evidence of AGN activity (such as coronal lines and broad permitted lines) in 69% (9/13) of the sample, demonstrating that mid-infrared selection is a powerful tool to detect AGNs. More than half of the galaxies with confirmed AGN activity show fast outflows in [O III ] in the optical and/or [Si vi] in the NIR, with the latter generally having much faster velocities that are also correlated to their spatial extent. We are also able to obtain virial BH masses for some targets and find they fall within the scatter of other late-type galaxies in the M BH –M stellar relation. The fact that they lack a significant bulge component indicates that secular processes, likely independent of major mergers, grew these BHs to supermassive sizes. Finally, we analyze the rotational gas kinematics and find two notable exceptions: two AGN hosts with outflows that appear to be rotating faster than expected. There is an indication that these two galaxies have stellar masses significantly lower than expected from their dark matter halo masses. This, combined with the observed AGN activity and strong gas outflows, may be evidence of the effects of AGN feedback.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Evaluating the resilience benefits of marine energy in microgrids

Marine energy resources could promote clean energy and resilience of coastal and island microgrids, and thus, these applications are a key future market for marine energy development. To demonstrate these benefits, this paper illustrates how inclusion of wave resources into energy resilience solutions can improve overall grid efficiency and sustainability, as well as maintain electricity supply during grid outages. The paper describes a case study evaluation of the potential to add wave energy to the Moloka’i grid as Hawaii strives to meet a 100% clean energy target. The Microgrid Component Optimization for Resilience tool is used to simulate operation in off- grid conditions and size different combinations of wave, solar photovoltaic (PV), wind, storage, and fuel resources required to meet resilience objectives. This research in- vestigates how including wave resources in a microgrid contributes to reducing biofuel generation, producing a zero-greenhouse gas emission profile, and avoiding the over-sizing of PV and battery systems to accommodate periods of unavailability or high demand. Insight from this paper supports the value proposition of wave resources for future markets and informs the relationship between marine generators and microgrids or isolated grids.

Newman, Sarah F.↗

2032 and 2036 risk enhancement from NEOs in the Taurid stream: Is there a significant coherent component to impact risk?

Impact risk is normally quantified by summing the product of the probability of an event and some measure of its consequences over the set of all possible events. The probability factor is considered to be more objective and is based on the size frequency distribution of Near Earth objects (NEOs) and an implicit assumption of randomness, which can be described as “stochastic risk”. Impact frequency does change with time, however, and there have been episodes in the deep geological past when the flux has been much higher. The hypothesis of “coherent catastrophism” suggests large variations on shorter timescales. It postulates the existence of a “Taurid resonant swarm” (TRS) of debris associated with Comet Encke that is stabilized by Jupiter and in a 7:2 resonance with it. The hypothetical cluster orbits in the broad Taurid stream, which crosses Earth's orbit twice a year at its nodes. Whereas the most extreme and fanciful versions of coherent catastrophism in recent geologic history have been comprehensively refuted, the possibility of a significant component of coherent (time-dependent) risk, associated with non-random correlated events, remains. This paper incorporates recently published data from observational campaigns associated with the Taurid stream. There is no evidence for objects in the Taurid stream that are above the global catastrophe threshold, but the possibility of a few large objects and a significant population of objects the size of the Chelyabinsk or Tunguska bodies has not been eliminated. Eyewitness accounts and comparison of airburst models to ground truth suggest that the Tunguska object was a Beta Taurid. The Tunguska event is probably an outlier when compared to the size frequency distributions under stochastic assumptions, but if there is a significant coherent component it may be representative of events that take place far more frequently, and risk assessments may have underestimated the contribution from airbursts. If so, the Earth will experience increased risk from objects this size, peaking in November 2032 and June 2036. We recommend targeted survey campaigns during these hypothetical TRS node crossings to quantify the population, search for potentially hazardous objects, and identify imminent impactors.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗