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DOE OSTI2022

Manufacturing Bulk Nanocrystalline Al-3Mg Components Using Cryomilling and Spark Plasma Sintering

In the current study, pure aluminum (Al) powders were cryomilled with and without 3 wt.% pure magnesium (Mg) dopant for varying durations followed by spark plasma sintering (SPS) of powders to prepare bulk components with superior mechanical properties. The crystallite sizes were determined for powders and the bulk components by analyzing the X-ray diffraction (XRD) spectrum. The calculations indicated a reduction in crystallite size with the increase in the cryomilling duration. The results also showed a more significant decrease in the crystallite sizes for Al-3Mg samples than that of pure Al. The changes in the surface morphology of powders were characterized using scanning electron microscopy (SEM). The elemental mapping analysis at nanoscale was carried out using Energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDX) in Scanning transmission electron microscopy (STEM). The mechanical properties of the bulk components were assessed using a Vickers Microhardness tester. The test results demonstrated an improvement in the hardness of Mg-doped components. Higher hardness values were also reported with an increase in the cryomilling duration. This article discusses the mechanisms for the reduction in crystallite size for pure Al and Al-3Mg and its subsequent impact on improving mechanical properties.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS2005

Series-Connected Buck Boost Regulators

A series-connected buck boost regulator (SCBBR) is an electronic circuit that bucks a power-supply voltage to a lower regulated value or boosts it to a higher regulated value. The concept of the SCBBR is a generalization of the concept of the SCBR, which was reported in "Series-Connected Boost Regulators" (LEW-15918), NASA Tech Briefs, Vol. 23, No. 7 (July 1997), page 42. Relative to prior DC-voltage-regulator concepts, the SCBBR concept can yield significant reductions in weight and increases in power-conversion efficiency in many applications in which input/output voltage ratios are relatively small and isolation is not required, as solar-array regulation or battery charging with DC-bus regulation. Usually, a DC voltage regulator is designed to include a DC-to-DC converter to reduce its power loss, size, and weight. Advances in components, increases in operating frequencies, and improved circuit topologies have led to continual increases in efficiency and/or decreases in the sizes and weights of DC voltage regulators. The primary source of inefficiency in the DC-to-DC converter portion of a voltage regulator is the conduction loss and, especially at high frequencies, the switching loss. Although improved components and topology can reduce the switching loss, the reduction is limited by the fact that the converter generally switches all the power being regulated. Like the SCBR concept, the SCBBR concept involves a circuit configuration in which only a fraction of the power is switched, so that the switching loss is reduced by an amount that is largely independent of the specific components and circuit topology used. In an SCBBR, the amount of power switched by the DC-to-DC converter is only the amount needed to make up the difference between the input and output bus voltage. The remaining majority of the power passes through the converter without being switched. The weight and power loss of a DC-to-DC converter are determined primarily by the amount of power processed. In the SCBBR, the unswitched majority of the power is passed through with very little power loss, and little if any increase in the sizes of the converter components is needed to enable the components to handle the unswitched power. As a result, the power-conversion efficiency of the regulator can be very high, as shown in the example of Figure 1. A basic SCBBR includes a DC-to-DC converter (see Figure 2). The switches and primary winding of a transformer in the converter is connected across the input bus, while the secondary winding and switches are connected in series with the output bus, so that the output voltage is the sum of the input voltage and the secondary voltage of the converter. In the breadboard SCBBR, the input voltage applied to the primary winding is switched by use of metal oxide/semiconductor field-effect transistors (MOSFETs) in a full bridge circuit; the secondary winding is center-tapped, with two MOSFET switches and diode rectifiers connected in opposed series in each leg. The sets of opposed switches and rectifiers are what enable operation in either a boost or a buck mode. In the boost mode, input voltage and current, and the output voltage and current are all positive; that is, the secondary voltage is added to the input voltage and the net output voltage can be regulated at a value equal or greater than the input voltage. In the buck mode, input voltage is still positive and the current still flows in the same direction in the secondary, but the switches are controlled such that some power flows from the secondary to the primary. The voltage across the secondary and the current into the primary are reversed. The result is that the output voltage is lower than the input voltage, and some power is recirculated from the converter secondary back to the input. Quantitatively, the advantage of an SCBBR is a direct function of the regulation range required. If, for example, a regulation range of 20 percent is required for a 500-W supply, th it suffices to design the DC-to-DC converter in the SCBBR for a power rating of only 100 W. The switching loss and size are much smaller than those of a conventional regulator that must be rated for switching of all 500 W. The reduction in size and the increase in efficiency are not directly proportional to switched-power ratio of 5:1 because the additional switches contribute some conduction loss and the input and output filters must be larger than those typically required for a 100-W converter. Nevertheless, the power loss and the size can be much smaller than those of a 500-W converter.

Birchenough, Arthur G.↗

NASA NTRS1975

Very long baseline interferometric observations of OH/IR stars

Results are reported for spectral-line very long baseline interferometric observations of the following II OH/IR objects, which emit strong 1612-MHz OH maser radiation concentrated at two velocities: NML Cyg, R Aql, IRC+10011, IRC-10529, and OH 1837-05. The apparent angular sizes were obtained for NML Cyg and R Aql, and lower limits upon the apparent sizes were obtained for the other objects. The data for NML Cyg agree with previous size determinations and indicate that the low- and high-velocity components are separated by about 20 times their apparent size. The maser component of R Aql is calculated within a factor of two to be about 5 by 10 to the 14th power cm, although the emitting region can be significantly larger. A qualitative description is given for II OH/IR objects with late M-type Mira variable center stars and circumstellar dust shells of similar dimensions.

Reid, M. J.↗

NASA NTRS1980

Titan aerosols - Optical properties and vertical distribution

An analysis of Titan's solar phase variation as a function of wavelength together with the continuum geometric albedo makes it possible to set limits on the real part of the refractive index and on the average particle size of the aerosol component of Titan's atmosphere of between about 1.5 and 2.0 and between 0.20 microns and about 0.35 microns, respectively. If the real part of the refractive index is known the average particle size can be determined to within a few percent, and varies inversely with the real part of the refractive index. Using this information in a two-layer model of a methane-aerosol atmosphere and comparing the result with Titan's visible and near-infrared methane spectrum leads to the conclusion that the top layer of Titan's atmosphere contains 0.01 km atm of methane and 2.5 extinction optical depths of aerosol, while the data are consistent with a bottom layer containing 2.2 km atm of methane and about 7.5 aerosol optical depths for a real part of the refractive index equal to 1.7 and an average particle size of 0.25 microns.

Rages, K.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Reliability of Sn/Pb and Lead-Free (SnAgCu) Solders of Surface Mounted Miniaturized Passive Components for Extreme Temperature (-185 C to +125 C) Space Missions

Surface mount electronic package test boards have been assembled using tin/lead (Sn/Pb) and lead-free (Pb-free or SnAgCu or SAC305) solders. The soldered surface mount packages include ball grid arrays (BGA), flat packs, various sizes of passive chip components, etc. They have been optically inspected after assembly and subsequently subjected to extreme temperature thermal cycling to assess their reliability or future deep space, long-term, extreme temperature environmental missions. In this study, the employed temperature range (-185oC to +125oC) covers military specifications (-55oC to +100oC), extreme old Martian (-120oC to +115oC), asteroid Nereus (-180oC to +25oC) and JUNO (-150oC to +120oC) environments. The boards were inspected at room temperature and at various intervals as a function of extreme temperature thermal cycling and bake duration. Electrical resistance measurements made at room temperature are reported and the tests to date have shown some change in resistance as a function of extreme temperature thermal cycling and some showed increase in resistance. However, the change in interconnect resistance becomes more noticeable with increasing number of thermal cycles. Further research work will be carried out to understand the reliability of packages under extreme temperature applications (-185oC to +125oC) via continuously monitoring the daisy chain resistance for BGA, Flat-packs, lead less chip packages, etc. This paper will describe the experimental reliability results of miniaturized passive components (01005, 0201, 0402, 0603, 0805, and 1206) assembled using surface mounting processes with tin-lead and lead-free solder alloys under extreme temperature environments.

extreme temperatures,↗

DOE OSTI2025

Project Title: Demonstration High Temperature Superconducting NonPlanar Stellarator Magnet with Advanced Manufactured Assemblies

This is the final report for the project “Demonstration High Temperature Superconducting Non- Planar Stellarator Magnet with Advanced Manufactured Assemblies”, funded by DOE, and performed by Type One Energy from September, 2020, to March 2024 involving the Fusion Technology Institute at the University of Wisconsin–Madison, the Plasma Science and Fusion Center (PSFC) at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) and Commonwealth Fusion Systems (CFS) to design and fabricate the first non-planar HTS (REBCO) coil for a high-field stellarator based on the SPARC tokamak’s VIPER cable concept. Stellarators at high fields make high-temperature superconducting magnets necessary for a compact fusion device. But the asymmetric and non-planar nature of its components, especially the magnets make it difficult for scalable producibility. To address these challenges, two promising technologies have emerged: advanced manufacturing (AM) for the supporting plates for forming the magnets, and high-temperature superconducting (HTS) cables inside the plates. AM has advanced enough to produce stellarator components with the necessary geometric complexity, size, and the precision, leading to potentially significant reductions in production time, cost, and waste. The cost of HTS tape has decreased dramatically, and progress in HTS planar magnet development has reached a point where it can be proposed for application to complex 3D non-planar magnets. The main objective of this project is to develop, demonstrate and pre-commercialize a novel, non-planar HTS coil shape that remains superconducting to achieve production scalable reductions in time and cost and performance. The proposed technology is based on the novel concept of a precision sub-scale HTS nonplanar coil assembly. This project focuses on the design, fabrication, material optimization of cable design, and validation and demonstration of the high current carrying capability of superconducting magnets and their support in a complex 3D shape needed for application to stellarator magnetic plasma confinement. The specific objectives of this research program include: (1) The successful application of metal AM to build a precision sub-scale HTS nonplanar coil, (2) An HTS cable and cross-section design that can conform to the required nonplanar coil shape (bend radii as tight as 10-cm) and remains superconducting at an engineering current density of 1.35 kA/cm 2 at 77 K and 1 tesla at the conductor (5 kA in the cable). To achieve the above challenging goals, we have formed a multidisciplinary research team consisting of members from Type One Energy and UW-Madison, MIT PSFC and CFS with complementary skills and strong facilities. The team worked collaboratively on fundamental and applied research on the following three major technical areas: (1) Design, fabrication, and optimization of non-planar HTS Cable The ultimate goal of the project is to determine if commercial REBCO tapes and additive manufacturing can be used to fabricate high field (≥ 10T) non-planar coils with tight bending radii (≃ 100mm) and with a degradation of the critical current (Ic) smaller than 20% with respect to the expected performance. We started with shorter length cable to evaluate the scalability of the production process and eventually reached multiple turns for higher magnetic fields. Our findings suggest that a stellarator coil system of a relevant size, characterized by its asymmetric and non-planar components, can be fabricated using a formed cable in plate method. This system can be simulated using a large-scale modeling approach. The use of hybrid modeling 3 techniques will be pivotal in reducing the complexity of the model and in assessing expected performance in designs. (2) Modeling and simulation of the non-planar HTS Cable Multiphysics simulations are performed using the commercial software and are carried out in self-field conditions, involving 2D and 3D models and twisted around one slot of twist-pitched VIPER cable. Multiphysics simulations are mainly focused on the coil for the critical current evaluation, the magnetic field map, self-Lorentz forces and mechanical, and magnetothermal behavior and the quench dynamics. The detailed model and prediction of the superconducting performance of a stellarator-relevant demonstration cable from numerical simulations supports the results from the actual testing backing the results. A detailed description and results are provided in the later sections. (3) Design, fabrication, and optimization of support for the non-planar HTS Cable The team developed an additive manufactured (AM) coil positioning plate that formed into the required non-planar geometry (with bend radii as tight as 10-cm) and to acceptable tolerances required for a stellarator magnet: (+0.25-mm from ideal on dimensions of coil positioning plates and up to +1-mm from ideal for position of wound coil). The plate materials is also included in this selection process from fabrication and 3D printing perspective and commensurate with eventual application to a fusion reactor. From the cost effectiveness point of view, the HTS coil and plate has the potential to cost less than that made in conventional methods with less waste (<75% waste) reducing time (<50%) and cost (<50%), especially as the AM field matures. The application of advanced manufacturing in the construction of the support plates will also lead to cost reduction, as the cables can be easily replaced, thereby making the assembly modular. With such high primary cost and time savings, high current densities and magnetic field, the funded R&D work has validated the designs, proven the feasibility, and characterized the performance of the HTS coil and plate assembly, paving the way for a relevant-size stellarator coil system.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

NASA NTRS1990

Filtering analysis of a direct numerical simulation of the turbulent Rayleigh-Benard problem

A filtering analysis of a turbulent flow was developed which provides details of the path of the kinetic energy of the flow from its creation via thermal production to its dissipation. A low-pass spatial filter is used to split the velocity and the temperature field into a filtered component (composed mainly of scales larger than a specific size, nominally the filter width) and a fluctuation component (scales smaller than a specific size). Variables derived from these fields can fall into one of the above two ranges or be composed of a mixture of scales dominated by scales near the specific size. The filter is used to split the kinetic energy equation into three equations corresponding to the three scale ranges described above. The data from a direct simulation of the Rayleigh-Benard problem for conditions where the flow is turbulent are used to calculate the individual terms in the three kinetic energy equations. This is done for a range of filter widths. These results are used to study the spatial location and the scale range of the thermal energy production, the cascading of kinetic energy, the diffusion of kinetic energy, and the energy dissipation. These results are used to evaluate two subgrid models typically used in large-eddy simulations of turbulence. Subgrid models attempt to model the energy below the filter width that is removed by a low-pass filter.

Eidson, T. M.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Multiple X-ray emission components in low-power radio galaxies

We report x-ray observations of the first six sources observed with ROSAT in our study of low-power radio galaxies. Spatial and spectral measurements show that both resolved (thermal) and unresolved X-ray emission in a single source are typical, although the relative strength and size of the resolved component varies between objects. The unresolved X-ray component correlates well with the core radio emission and may be dominated by nonthermal emission associated with an inner radio jet.

Worrall, D. M.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Aerosol in the Pacific troposphere

The use of near real-time optical techniques is emphasized for the measurement of mid-tropospheric aerosol over the Central Pacific. The primary focus is on measurement of the aerosol size distribution over the range of particle diameters from 0.15 to 5.0 microns that are essential for modeling CO2 backscatter values in support of the laser atmospheric wind sounder (LAWS) program. The measurement system employs a LAS-X (Laser Aerosol Spectrometer-PMS, Boulder, CO) with a custom 256 channel pulse height analyzer and software for detailed measurement and analysis of aerosol size distributions. A thermal preheater system (Thermo Optic Aerosol Descriminator (TOAD) conditions the aerosol in a manner that allows the discrimination of the size distribution of individual aerosol components such as sulfuric acid, sulfates and refractory species. This allows assessment of the relative contribution of each component to the BCO2 signal. This is necessary since the different components have different sources, exhibit independent variability and provide different BCO2 signals for a given mass and particle size. Field activities involve experiments designed to examine both temporal and spatial variability of these aerosol components from ground based and aircraft platforms.

Clarke, Antony D.↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Comprehensive Simulation Study to Evaluate Future Vehicle Energy and Cost Reduction Potential

Under the umbrella of EERE’s Office of Sustainable Transportation, the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Vehicle Technologies Office (VTO) and Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Technologies Office (HFTO) seek to develop sustainable, affordable, and efficient technologies for transportation of goods and people. Translating investments in advanced transportation component technologies and powertrains to estimate the potential for vehicle-level fuel savings is critical to understanding DOE’s impact and success in this mission For this study, Argonne National Laboratory (Argonne) simulated technologies funded by VTO and HFTO for light-duty vehicles across the following: Powertrain configurations (conventional, power-split hybrid electric vehicle, extended-range electric vehicle, battery electric drive, and fuel-cell vehicles); Vehicle classes (compact car, mid-size car, small sport utility vehicle [SUV], mid-size SUV, and pickup truck); Fuels (gasoline, diesel, natural gas, hydrogen, and battery electricity). We assessed each technology for five different timeframes: laboratory years 2015 (reference), 2020, 2025, 2030, and 2045. We assumed a delay of 5 years between laboratory year and model year (i.e., the year the technology is introduced into production). Finally, we included uncertainties for both technology performance and cost by considering two cases (note that these cases are not intended as predictions of future performance): Low case , aligned with DOE technology manager estimates of expected original equipment manufacturer (OEM) improvements based on business as usual regulatory and market environments; High case , aligned with aggressive technology advancements based on research and development (R&D) targets developed through support by VTO and HFTO. We estimated the energy and cost impact of different technologies using Autonomie (Argonne undated), a state-of-the-art vehicle system simulation tool developed by Argonne and used to assess the energy consumption, performance, and cost of multiple advanced vehicle technologies. The tool comprises a complete set of vehicle models to assess impacts across a wide range of classes (from light- to heavy-duty), powertrain configurations (from conventional to hybrid electric vehicles [HEVs], fuel cell electric vehicles [FCEVs], plug-in hybrid electric vehicles [PHEVs], and battery electric vehicles [BEVs]), components, and control strategies, including vehicle-level and component-level controls developed and calibrated using dynamometer test data. Autonomie has been used to support a wide range of studies: analyzing various component technologies, sizing powertrain components to meet different vehicle requirements, comparing the benefits of powertrain configurations, optimizing both heuristic and route-based vehicle energy control, and predicting transportation energy use when paired with a traffic modeling tool such as POLARIS. This report documents the assumptions made and the vehicle-level energy consumption benefits and associated technology costs estimated for various types of light-duty vehicles. Details regarding vehicle assumptions and simulation results are available in the spreadsheets accompanying this report.

08 HYDROGEN↗

NASA NTRS1990

On protection of Freedom's solar dynamic radiator from the orbital debris environment. Part 1: Preliminary analyses and testing

A great deal of experimentation and analysis was performed to quantify penetration thresholds of components which will experience orbital debris impacts. Penetration was found to depend upon mission specific parameters such as orbital altitude, inclination, and orientation of the component; and upon component specific parameters such as material, density and the geometry particular to its shielding. Experimental results are highly dependent upon shield configuration and cannot be extrapolated with confidence to alternate shield configurations. Also, current experimental capabilities are limited to velocities which only approach the lower limit of predicted orbital debris velocities. Therefore, prediction of the penetrating particle size for a particular component having a complex geometry remains highly uncertain. An approach is described which was developed to assess on-orbit survivability of the solar dynamic radiator due to micrometeoroid and space debris impacts. Preliminary analyses are presented to quantify the solar dynamic radiator survivability, and include the type of particle and particle population expected to defeat the radiator bumpering (i.e., penetrate a fluid flow tube). Results of preliminary hypervelocity impact testing performed on radiator panel samples (in the 6 to 7 km/sec velocity range) are also presented. Plans for further analyses and testing are discussed. These efforts are expected to lead to a radiator design which will perform to requirements over the expected lifetime.

Rhatigan, Jennifer L.↗

NASA NTRS1992

On protection of Freedom's solar dynamic radiator from the orbital debris environment. I - Preliminary analysis and testing

Rhatigan, Jennifer L.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Hybrid Hydraulic-Electric Architecture (HHEA) for Mobile Machines (Final Report)

Traditionally, off-road mobile machines such as excavators and wheel loaders are primarily powered by hydraulics, and throttling valves are used to control their work circuits. In recent years, two general trends are towards more energy efficient systems and electrification. With electrification, both efficiency and control performance can be improved by the elimination of throttling losses and the use of high-bandwidth inverter control. Electrification is generally accomplished with Electro-hydraulic actuators (EHA) but they are limited to lower powered systems due to the high cost of electric machines capable of high power or high torque. This project proposes a new system architecture for off-road vehicles - Hybrid Hydraulic Electric Architecture (HHEA) to improve efficiency and control performance without requiring large electric machines. The widely applicable architecture combines hydraulic power and electric power in such a way that the majority of power is provided hydraulically while electric drives are used to modulate this power. In particular, HHEA utilizes multiple common pressure rails to transmit the majority of power and small electric machines to modulate the power. The energy-saving potential of the the HHEA has been validated for the work circuits of a variety of mobile machines, from small 5-ton excavators to medium sized 20-ton excavators and wheel loaders, and representative duty cycles to reduce energy input by 50-80% compared to the commercial state-of-art load-sensing systems. In addition, the corner power requirements of the electrical machines can be downsized by 85% compared to the EHA approach. Various tradeoff studies have also been conducted, including sensitivities to individual components performances, controllers, accumulator sizes, and variations of the system architecture etc. A control strategy has been developed to maintain or exceed the motion control precision compared to current systems. The motion control strategy consists of a nominal controller, based on a passivity-based backstepping design, and a transition controller, based on least-norn feedforward design. The nominal controller is used in between common pressure rail switches whereas the transition controller compensates for any disturbance that common pressure rail switchings inflict on the system. The control strategy has been experimentally validated on both a medium pressure (200bar) hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) testbed and a high pressure (300+bar) HIL testbed. An efficient and power-dense integrated electric-hydraulic machine consisting of an axial flux electric machine and a radial hydrostatic piston hydraulic machine has been designed, constructed and tested. The machine has an active material power density of 6.1kW/kg, a rated speed of 12500 RPM, and a design efficiency of 85%. This is among the highest power density electric machines using conventional materials. While the integrated machine was designed for modulating the hydraulic power within the HHEA, it can also be used in other applications.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA NTRS1984

Fuel spray diagnostics

Several laser measurement methods are being studied to provide the capability to make droplet size and velocity measurements under a variety of spray conditions. The droplet sizing interferometer (DSI) promises to be a successful technique because of its capability for rapid data acquisition, compilation and analysis. Its main advantage is the ability to obtain size and velocity measurements in air-fuel mixing studies and hot flows. The existing DSI at NASA Lewis is a two-color, two-component system. Two independent orthogonal measurements of size and velocity components can be made simultaneously. It also uses an off-axis large-angle light scatter detection. The fundamental features of the system are optics, signal processing and data management system. The major component includes a transmitter unit, two receiver units, two signal processors, two data management systems, two Bragg cell systems, two printer/plotters, a laser, power supply and color monitor.

Bosque, M. A.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Type-I ELM mitigation by continuous lithium granule gravitational injection into the upper tungsten divertor in EAST

Large edge-localized modes (ELMs) were mitigated by gravitational injection of lithium granules into the upper X-point region of the EAST device with tungsten plasma-facing components. The maximum ELM size was reduced by ~ 70% in high βN H-mode plasmas. Large ELM stabilization was sustained for up to about 40 energy confinement times, with constant core radiated power and no evidence of high-Z or low-Z impurity accumulation. The lithium granules injection reduced the edge plasma pedestal density and temperature and their gradients, due to increased edge radiation and reduced recycling from the plasma-facing components. Ideal stability calculations using the ELITE code indicate that the stabilization of large ELMs correlates with improved stability of intermediate-n peeling-ballooning modes, due to reduced edge current resulting from the profile changes. The pedestal pressure reduction was partially offset by a core density increase, which resulted in a modest ~ 7% drop in core stored energy and normalized energy confinement time. We surmise that the remnant small ELMs are triggered by the penetration of multiple Li granules just past the separatrix, similar to small ELMs triggered by deuterium pellet [S. Futatani et al., Nucl. Fusion 54 (2014) 073008]. This study extends previous ELM elimination with Li powder injection [R. Maingi et al., Nucl. Fusion 58 (2018) 024003] in EAST because 1) use of small, dust-like powder and the related potential health hazards were eliminated, and 2) use of macroscopic granules should be more applicable to future devices, due to deeper penetration than dust particles, e.g. inside the separatrix with velocities ~ 10 m/s in EAST.

EAST↗

DOE OSTI2021

Extreme metrics from large ensembles: investigating the effects of ensemble size on their estimates

Abstract. We consider the problem of estimating the ensemble sizes required to characterize the forced component and the internal variability of a number of extreme metrics. While we exploit existing large ensembles, our perspective is that of a modeling center wanting to estimate a priori such sizes on the basis of an existing small ensemble (we assume the availability of only five members here). We therefore ask if such a small-size ensemble is sufficient to estimate accurately the population variance (i.e., the ensemble internal variability) and then apply a well-established formula that quantifies the expected error in the estimation of the population mean (i.e., the forced component) as a function of the sample size n, here taken to mean the ensemble size. We find that indeed we can anticipate errors in the estimation of the forced component for temperature and precipitation extremes as a function of n by plugging into the formula an estimate of the population variance derived on the basis of five members. For a range of spatial and temporal scales, forcing levels (we use simulations under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) and two models considered here as our proof of concept, it appears that an ensemble size of 20 or 25 members can provide estimates of the forced component for the extreme metrics considered that remain within small absolute and percentage errors. Additional members beyond 20 or 25 add only marginal precision to the estimate, and this remains true when statistical inference through extreme value analysis is used. We then ask about the ensemble size required to estimate the ensemble variance (a measure of internal variability) along the length of the simulation and – importantly – about the ensemble size required to detect significant changes in such variance along the simulation with increased external forcings. Using the F test, we find that estimates on the basis of only 5 or 10 ensemble members accurately represent the full ensemble variance even when the analysis is conducted at the grid-point scale. The detection of changes in the variance when comparing different times along the simulation, especially for the precipitation-based metrics, requires larger sizes but not larger than 15 or 20 members. While we recognize that there will always exist applications and metric definitions requiring larger statistical power and therefore ensemble sizes, our results suggest that for a wide range of analysis targets and scales an effective estimate of both forced component and internal variability can be achieved with sizes below 30 members. This invites consideration of the possibility of exploring additional sources of uncertainty, such as physics parameter settings, when designing ensemble simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Type-I ELM mitigation by continuous lithium granule gravitational injection into the upper tungsten divertor in EAST

Large edge-localized modes (ELMs) were mitigated by gravitational injection of lithium granules into the upper X-point region of the experimental advanced superconducting tokamak (EAST) device with tungsten plasma-facing components. The maximum ELM size was reduced by ~70% in high β N H-mode plasmas. Large ELM stabilization was sustained for up to about 40 energy confinement times, with constant core radiated power and no evidence of high-Z or low-Z impurity accumulation. The lithium granules injection reduced the edge plasma pedestal density and temperature and their gradients, due to increased edge radiation and reduced recycling from the plasma-facing components. Ideal stability calculations using the ELITE code indicate that the stabilization of large ELMs correlates with improved stability of intermediate-n peeling-ballooning modes, due to reduced edge current resulting from the profile changes. The pedestal pressure reduction was partially offset by a core density increase, which resulted in a modest ~7% drop in core stored energy and normalized energy confinement time. We surmise that the remnant small ELMs are triggered by the penetration of multiple Li granules just past the separatrix, similar to small ELMs triggered by deuterium pellet Futatani et al (2014 Nucl. Fusion 54 073008). This study extends previous ELM elimination with Li powder injection Maingi et al (2018 Nucl. Fusion 58 024003) in EAST because (1) use of small, dust-like powder and the related potential health hazards were eliminated, and (2) use of macroscopic granules should be more applicable to future devices, due to deeper penetration than dust particles, e.g. inside the separatrix with velocities ~10 m s -1 in EAST.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

NASA NTRS1973

Determination of Atmospheric Aerosol Characteristics from the Polarization of Scattered Radiation

Aerosols affect the polarization of radiation in scattering, hence measured polarization can be used to infer the nature of the particles. Size distribution, particle shape, real and absorption parts of the complex refractive index affect the scattering. From Lorenz-Mie calculations of the 4-Stokes parameters as a function of scattering angle for various wavelengths the following polarization parameters were plotted: total intensity, intensity of polarization in plane of observation, intensity perpendicular to the plane of observation, polarization ratio, polarization (using all 4-Stokes parameters), plane of the polarization ellipse and its ellipticity. A six-component log-Gaussian size distribution model was used to study the effects of the nature of the polarization due to variations in the size distribution and complex refractive index. Though a rigorous inversion from measurements of scattering to detailed specification of aerosol characteristics is not possible, considerable information about the nature of the aerosols can be obtained. Only single scattering from aerosols was used in this paper. Also, the background due to Rayleigh gas scattering, the reduction of effects as a result of multiple scattering and polarization effects of possible ground background (airborne platforms) were not included.

Harris, F. S., Jr.↗