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NASA NTRS2017

Evolving Understanding of Antarctic Ice-Sheet Physics and Ambiguity in Probabilistic Sea-Level Projections

Mechanisms such as ice-shelf hydrofracturing and ice-cliff collapse may rapidly increase discharge from marine-based ice sheets. Here, we link a probabilistic framework for sea-level projections to a small ensemble of Antarctic ice-sheet (AIS) simulations incorporating these physical processes to explore their influence on global-mean sea-level (GMSL) and relative sea-level (RSL). We compare the new projections to past results using expert assessment and structured expert elicitation about AIS changes. Under high greenhouse gas emissions (Representative Concentration Pathway [RCP] 8.5), median projected 21st century GMSL rise increases from 79 to 146 cm. Without protective measures, revised median RSL projections would by 2100 submerge land currently home to 153 million people, an increase of 44 million. The use of a physical model, rather than simple parameterizations assuming constant acceleration of ice loss, increases forcing sensitivity: overlap between the central 90% of simulations for 2100 for RCP 8.5 (93-243 cm) and RCP 2.6 (26-98 cm) is minimal. By 2300, the gap between median GMSL estimates for RCP 8.5 and RCP 2.6 reaches >10 m, with median RSL projections for RCP 8.5 jeopardizing land now occupied by 950 million people (versus 167 million for RCP 2.6). The minimal correlation between the contribution of AIS to GMSL by 2050 and that in 2100 and beyond implies current sea-level observations cannot exclude future extreme outcomes. The sensitivity of post-2050 projections to deeply uncertain physics highlights the need for robust decision and adaptive management frameworks.

Kopp, Robert E.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Object-Based Comparison of Data-Driven and Physics-Driven Satellite Estimates of Extreme Rainfall

The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) constellation of spaceborne sensors provides a variety of direct and indirect measurements of precipitation processes. Such observations can be employed to derive spatially and temporally consistent gridded precipitation estimates either via data-driven retrieval algorithms or by assimilation into physically based numerical weather models. We compare the data-driven Integrated Multisatellite Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) and the assimilation-enabled NASA-Unified Weather Research and Forecasting (NU-WRF) model against Stage IV reference precipitation for four major extreme rainfall events in the southeastern United States using an object-based analysis framework that decomposes gridded precipitation fields into storm objects. As an alternative to conventional ‘‘grid-by-grid analysis,’’ the object-based approach provides a promising way to diagnose spatial properties of storms, trace them through space and time, and connect their accuracy to storm types and input data sources. The evolution of two tropical cyclones are generally captured by IMERG and NU-WRF, while the less organized spatial patterns of two mesoscale convective systems pose challenges for both. NU-WRF rain rates are generally more accurate, while IMERG better captures storm location and shape. Both show higher skill in detecting large, intense storms compared to smaller, weaker storms. IMERG’s accuracy depends on the input microwave and infrared data sources; NU-WRF does not appear to exhibit this dependence. Findings highlight that an object-oriented view can provide deeper insights into satellite precipitation performance and that the satellite precipitation community should further explore the potential for ‘‘hybrid’’ data-driven and physics-driven estimates in order to make optimal usage of satellite observations.

extreme events↗
NASA NTRS1994

Regular Topologies for Gigabit Wide-Area Networks

In general terms, this project aimed at the analysis and design of techniques for very high-speed networking. The formal objectives of the project were to: (1) Identify switch and network technologies for wide-area networks that interconnect a large number of users and can provide individual data paths at gigabit/s rates; (2) Quantitatively evaluate and compare existing and proposed architectures and protocols, identify their strength and growth potentials, and ascertain the compatibility of competing technologies; and (3) Propose new approaches to existing architectures and protocols, and identify opportunities for research to overcome deficiencies and enhance performance. The project was organized into two parts: 1. The design, analysis, and specification of techniques and protocols for very-high-speed network environments. In this part, SRI has focused on several key high-speed networking areas, including Forward Error Control (FEC) for high-speed networks in which data distortion is the result of packet loss, and the distribution of broadband, real-time traffic in multiple user sessions. 2. Congestion Avoidance Testbed Experiment (CATE). This part of the project was done within the framework of the DARTnet experimental T1 national network. The aim of the work was to advance the state of the art in benchmarking DARTnet's performance and traffic control by developing support tools for network experimentation, by designing benchmarks that allow various algorithms to be meaningfully compared, and by investigating new queueing techniques that better satisfy the needs of best-effort and reserved-resource traffic. This document is the final technical report describing the results obtained by SRI under this project. The report consists of three volumes: Volume 1 contains a technical description of the network techniques developed by SRI in the areas of FEC and multicast of real-time traffic. Volume 2 describes the work performed under CATE. Volume 3 contains the source code of all software developed under CATE.

Shacham, Nachum↗
NASA NTRS1994

Acoustic receptivity of compressible boundary layers: Receptivity by way of surface-temperature variations

The Goldstein-Ruban theory has been extended within the framework of Zavol'skii et al. to study the acoustic receptivity of compressible boundary layers. We consider the receptivity produced in a region of localized, small-amplitude variation in the surface temperature and compare it with the receptivity that is induced through a similar mechanism by a variation in the suction velocity at the surface. It is found that the orientation of the acoustic wave can have a significant impact on the receptivity process, with the maximum receptivity at a given sound-pressure level being produced by upstream oriented acoustic waves. At sufficiently low Mach numbers, the variation of receptivity with the acoustic-wave orientation can be predicted analytically and is the same for both surface suction and surface heating. However, as a result of the acoustic refraction across the mean boundary layer, the above dependence can become rather complex and, also, dependent on the type of surface nonuniformity. The results also suggest that the receptivity caused by temperature nonuniformities may turn out to be more significant than that produced by the mean-flow perturbations associated with strip suction.

Choudhari, Meelan↗
NASA NTRS2003

Performance of a Heterogeneous Grid Partitioner for N-body Applications

An important characteristic of distributed grids is that they allow geographically separated multicomputers to be tied together in a transparent virtual environment to solve large-scale computational problems. However, many of these applications require effective runtime load balancing for the resulting solutions to be viable. Recently, we developed a latency tolerant partitioner, called MinEX, specifically for use in distributed grid environments. This paper compares the performance of MinEX to that of METIS, a popular multilevel family of partitioners, using simulated heterogeneous grid configurations. A solver for the classical N-body problem is implemented to provide a framework for the comparisons. Experimental results show that MinEX provides superior quality partitions while being competitive to METIS in speed of execution.

Harvey, Daniel J.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Mechanically Strong Lightweight Materials for Aerospace Applications (x-aerogels)

The X-Aerogel is a new NASA-developed strong lightweight material made by reacting the mesoporous surfaces of 3-D networks of inorganic nanoparticles with polymeric crosslinkers. Since the relative amount of the crosslinker and the backbone are comparable, X-Aerogels can be viewed either as aerogels modified by templated accumulation of polymer on the skeletal nanoparticles, or as nanoporous polymers made by templated casting of polymeric precursors on a nanostructured framework. The most striking feature of X-Aerogels is that for a nominal 3-fold increase in density (still a ultralightweight material), the mechanical strength can be up to 300 times higher than the strength of the underlying native aerogel. Thus, X-Aerogels combine a multiple of the specific compressive strength of steel, with the thermal conductivity of styrofoam. XAerogels have been demonstrated with several polymers such as polyurethanes/polyureas, epoxies and polyolefins, while crosslinking of approximately 35 different oxide aerogels yields a wide variety of dimensionally stable, porous lightweight materials with interesting structural, magnetic and optical properties. X-Aerogels are evaluated for cryogenic rocket fuel storage tanks and for Advanced EVA suits, where they will play the dual role of the thermal insulator/structural material. Along the same lines, major impact is also expected by the use of X-Aerogels in structural components/thermal protection for small satellites, spacecrafts, planetary vehicles and habitats.

Leventis, Nicholas↗
NASA NTRS2006

Mechanically Strong, Polymer Cross-linked Aerogels (X-Aerogels)

Aerogels comprise a class of low-density, high porous solid objects consisting of dimensionally quasi-stable self-supported three-dimensional assemblies of nanoparticles. Aerogels are pursued because of properties above and beyond those of the individual nanoparticles, including low thermal conductivity, low dielectric constant and high acoustic impedance. Possible applications include thermal and vibration insulation, dielectrics for fast electronics, and hosting of functional guests for a wide variety of optical, chemical and electronic applications. Aerogels, however, are extremely fragile materials, hence they have found only limited application in some very specialized environments, for example as Cerenkov radiation detectors in certain types of nuclear reactors, aboard spacecraft as collectors of hypervelocity particles (refer to NASA's Stardust program) and as thermal insulators on planetary vehicles on Mars (refer to Sojourner Rover in 1997 and Spirit and Opportunity in 2004). Along these lines, the X-Aerogel is a new NASA-developed strong lightweight material that has resolved the fragility problem of traditional (native) aerogels. X-Aerogels are made by applying a conformal polymer coating on the surfaces of the skeletal nanoparticles of native aerogels (see Scanning Electron Micrographs). Since the relative amounts of the polymeric crosslinker and the backbone are comparable, X-Aerogels can be viewed either as aerogels modified by the templated accumulation of polymer on the skeletal nanoparticles, or as nanoporous polymers made by remplated casting of polymer on a nanostructured framework. The most striking feature of X-Aerogels is that for a nominal 3-fold increase in density (still a ultralighweight material), the mechanical strength can be up to 300 times higher than the strength of the underlying native aerogel. Thus, X-Aerogels combine a multiple of the specific compressive strength of steel, with the the thermal conductivity of styrofoam. X-Aerogels have been demonstrated with several polymers such as polyurethanes/polyureas, epoxies and polyolefins, while crosslinking of approximately 35 different oxide aerogels yields a range of dimensionally stable, porous lightweight materials with unique combinations of structural, magnetic and optical properties. The main theme in materials development for space exploration is multifunction. For example, use of one material for thermal insulation/structural component will free weight for useful payload. In that regard, X-aerogels are evaluated at NASA for cryogenic fuel storage tanks and for spacesuits. Along the same lines, major impact fro X-Aerogels is also expected in commercial applications for thermal/acoustic insulation, in catalytic reformers and converters, in filtration membranes and membranes for fuel cells, as platforms for optical, electrical and magnetic sensors, and as lightweight structural component for aircraft and satellites.

Leventis, Nicholas↗
NASA NTRS2012

Identifying and Evaluating the Relationships that Control a Land Surface Model's Hydrological Behavior

The inherent soil moisture-evaporation relationships used in today 's land surface models (LSMs) arguably reflect a lot of guesswork given the lack of contemporaneous evaporation and soil moisture observations at the spatial scales represented by regional and global models. The inherent soil moisture-runoff relationships used in the LSMs are also of uncertain accuracy. Evaluating these relationships is difficult but crucial given that they have a major impact on how the land component contributes to hydrological and meteorological variability within the climate system. The relationships, it turns out, can be examined efficiently and effectively with a simple water balance model framework. The simple water balance model, driven with multi-decadal observations covering the conterminous United States, shows how different prescribed relationships lead to different manifestations of hydrological variability, some of which can be compared directly to observations. Through the testing of a wide suite of relationships, the simple model provides estimates for the underlying relationships that operate in nature and that should be operating in LSMs. We examine the relationships currently used in a number of different LSMs in the context of the simple water balance model results and make recommendations for potential first-order improvements to these LSMs.

Koster, Randal D.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Time and Frequency-Domain Cross-Verification of SLS 6DOF Trajectory Simulations

The SLS GNC team and its partners have developed several time- and frequency-based simulations for development and analysis of the proposed SLS launch vehicle. The simulations differ in fidelity and some have unique functionality that allows them to perform specific analyses. Some examples of the purposes of the various models are: trajectory simulation, multi-body separation, Monte Carlo, hardware in the loop, loads, and frequency domain stability analyses. While no two simulations are identical, many of the models are essentially six degree-of-freedom (6DOF) representations of the SLS plant dynamics, hardware implementation, and flight software. Thus at a high level all of those models should be in agreement. Comparison of outputs from several SLS trajectory and stability analysis tools are ongoing as part of the program's current verification effort. The purpose of these comparisons is to highlight modeling and analysis differences, verify simulation data sources, identify inconsistencies and minor errors, and ultimately to verify output data as being a good representation of the vehicle and subsystem dynamics. This paper will show selected verification work in both the time and frequency domain from the current design analysis cycle of the SLS for several of the design and analysis simulations. In the time domain, the tools that will be compared are MAVERIC, CLVTOPS, SAVANT, STARS, ARTEMIS, and POST 2. For the frequency domain analysis, the tools to be compared are FRACTAL, SAVANT, and STARS. The paper will include discussion of these tools including their capabilities, configurations, and the uses to which they are put in the SLS program. Determination of the criteria by which the simulations are compared (matching criteria) requires thoughtful consideration, and there are several pitfalls that may occur that can severely punish a simulation if not considered carefully. The paper will discuss these considerations and will present a framework for responding to these issues when they arise. For example, small event timing differences can lead to large differences in mass properties if the criteria are to measure those properties at the same time, or large differences in altitude if the criteria are to measure those properties when the simulation experiences a staging event. Similarly, a tiny difference in phase can lead to large gain margin differences for frequency-domain comparisons of gain margins.

VanZwieten, Tannen↗
NASA NTRS2017

Time and Frequency-Domain Cross-Verification of SLS 6DOF Trajectory Simulations

The Space Launch System (SLS) Guidance, Navigation, and Control (GNC) team and its partners have developed several time- and frequency-based simulations for development and analysis of the proposed SLS launch vehicle. The simulations differ in fidelity and some have unique functionality that allows them to perform specific analyses. Some examples of the purposes of the various models are: trajectory simulation, multi-body separation, Monte Carlo, hardware in the loop, loads, and frequency domain stability analyses. While no two simulations are identical, many of the models are essentially six degree-of-freedom (6DOF) representations of the SLS plant dynamics, hardware implementation, and flight software. Thus at a high level all of those models should be in agreement. Comparison of outputs from several SLS trajectory and stability analysis tools are ongoing as part of the program's current verification effort. The purpose of these comparisons is to highlight modeling and analysis differences, verify simulation data sources, identify inconsistencies and minor errors, and ultimately to verify output data as being a good representation of the vehicle and subsystem dynamics. This paper will show selected verification work in both the time and frequency domain from the current design analysis cycle of the SLS for several of the design and analysis simulations. In the time domain, the tools that will be compared are MAVERIC, CLVTOPS, SAVANT, STARS, ARTEMIS, and POST 2. For the frequency domain analysis, the tools to be compared are FRACTAL, SAVANT, and STARS. The paper will include discussion of these tools including their capabilities, configurations, and the uses to which they are put in the SLS program. Determination of the criteria by which the simulations are compared (matching criteria) requires thoughtful consideration, and there are several pitfalls that may occur that can severely punish a simulation if not considered carefully. The paper will discuss these considerations and will present a framework for responding to these issues when they arise. For example, small event timing differences can lead to large differences in mass properties if the criteria are to measure those properties at the same time, or large differences in altitude if the criteria are to measure those properties when the simulation experiences a staging event. Similarly, a tiny difference in phase can lead to large gain margin differences for frequency-domain comparisons of gain margins.

Johnson, Matthew↗
NASA NTRS2015

Improving the Monitoring of Crop Productivity Using Spaceborne Solar-Induced Fluorescence

Large-scale monitoring of crop growth and yield has important value for forecasting food production and prices and ensuring regional food security. A newly emerging satellite retrieval, solar-induced fluorescence (SIF) of chlorophyll, provides for the first time a direct measurement related to plant photosynthetic activity (i.e. electron transport rate). Here, we provide a framework to link SIF retrievals and crop yield, accounting for stoichiometry, photosynthetic pathways, and respiration losses. We apply this framework to estimate United States crop productivity for 2007-2012, where we use the spaceborne SIF retrievals from the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment-2 satellite, benchmarked with county-level crop yield statistics, and compare it with various traditional crop monitoring approaches. We find that a SIF-based approach accounting for photosynthetic pathways (i.e. C3 and C4 crops) provides the best measure of crop productivity among these approaches, despite the fact that SIF sensors are not yet optimized for terrestrial applications. We further show that SIF provides the ability to infer the impacts of environmental stresses on autotrophic respiration and carbon-use-efficiency, with a substantial sensitivity of both to high temperatures. These results indicate new opportunities for improved mechanistic understanding of crop yield responses to climate variability and change.

Guan, Kaiyu↗
NASA NTRS2018

Dressing the Coronal Magnetic Extrapolations of Active Regions with a Parameterized Thermal Structure

The study of time-dependent solar active region (AR) morphology and its relation to eruptive events requires analysis of imaging data obtained in multiple wavelength domains with differing spatial and time resolution, ideally in combination with 3D physical models. To facilitate this goal, we have undertaken a major enhancement of our IDL-based simulation tool, GX_Simulator, previously developed for modeling microwave and X-ray emission from flaring loops, to allow it to simulate quiescent emission from solar ARs. The framework includes new tools for building the atmospheric model and enhanced routines for calculating emission that include new wavelengths. In this paper, we use our upgraded tool to model and analyze an AR and compare the synthetic emission maps with observations. We conclude that the modeled magneto-thermal structure is a reasonably good approximation of the real one.

Nita, Gelu M.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Jet Noise Prediction Using Hybrid RANS/LES with Structured Overset Grids

Hybrid RANS/LES simulations using the structured overset grid approach and a low dissipation finite-difference method within the Launch Ascent and Vehicle Aerodynamics (LAVA) solver framework are presented for jet noise prediction. The simulations are part of a validation effort to demonstrate jet noise prediction capability, to assess noise characteristics of next generation quiet supersonic commercial jets. Results are compared with experimental data acquired in the Small Hot Jet Acoustic Rig in the Aeroacoustic Propulsion Laboratory at NASA Glenn Research Center. Details of the structured overset grids, numerical discretization, and turbulence model are provided. Near-field comparisons to PIV data and far-field comparisons to microphone data are discussed. Excellent agreement of time-averaged mean quantities along the jet center-line and lip-line are obtained. Good agreement with root-mean-squared (RMS) quantities along the jet center-line are also obtained. An over prediction of lip-line RMS at the nozzle exit is observed leading to a small over-prediction of side-line far-field noise (less than 2 dB). Good agreement with far-field noise in the Mach wave radiation directions is achieved.

Housman, Jeffrey A.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Hypersonic vehicle model and control law development using H(infinity) and micron synthesis

The control system design for a Single Stage To Orbit (SSTO) air breathing vehicle will be central to a successful mission because a precise ascent trajectory will preserve narrow payload margins. The air breathing propulsion system requires the vehicle to fly roughly halfway around the Earth through atmospheric turbulence. The turbulence, the high sensitivity of the propulsion system to inlet flow conditions, the relatively large uncertainty of the parameters characterizing the vehicle, and continuous acceleration make the problem especially challenging. Adequate stability margins must be provided without sacrificing payload mass since payload margins are critical. Therefore, a multivariable control theory capable of explicitly including both uncertainty and performance is needed. The H(infinity) controller in general provides good robustness but can result in conservative solutions for practical problems involving structured uncertainty. Structured singular value mu framework for analysis and synthesis is potentially much less conservative and hence more appropriate for problems with tight margins. An SSTO control system requires: highly accurate tracking of velocity and altitude commands while limiting angle-of-attack oscillations, minimized control power usage, and a stabilized vehicle when atmospheric turbulence and system uncertainty are present. The controller designs using H(infinity) and mu-synthesis procedures were compared. An integrated flight/propulsion dynamic mathematical model of a conical accelerator vehicle was linearized as the vehicle accelerated through Mach 8. Vehicle acceleration through the selected flight condition gives rise to parametric variation that was modeled as a structured uncertainty. The mu-analysis approach was used in the frequency domain to conduct controller analysis and was confirmed by time history plots. Results demonstrate the inherent advantages of the mu framework for this class of problems.

Gregory, Irene M.↗
NASA NTRS1972

Assessment of advances in structural analysis for space shuttle

The latest technology for structural analysis in relation to the design tasks that lie ahead for the space shuttle is reviewed. For shell-of-revolution structures, the analysis can be formulated as a one-dimensional problem which is readily solved by using finite-difference or numerical-integration techniques. For more general asymmetric shells, a two-dimensional formulation is required. However, the governing equations are readily formulated and are amenable to solution by finite-difference techniques. For a completely general structural arrangement, such as structural frameworks, recourse is usually made to discretized formulations using finite elements. Of course, the finite-element programs could be used for shell structures, but at a loss in accuracy and increase in computer time compared with the special purpose programs.

Dixon, S. C.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Cloud-to-ground lightning activity in mesoscale convective complexes

An analysis of the evolution of cloud-to-ground lightning discharges attending convective storms in mesoscale convective systems was conducted in the framework of the mesoscale convective complexes (MCCs) life cycle. The lightning discharge data were acquired by a commercially available lightning detection and location system. Peak rates averaged 42/min for the MCCs analyzed; these rates are comparable to the highest observed rates within other mesoscale storm systems and are greater than 20 times the rates previously observed in isolated thunderstorms. Lightning damage occurs with half of the MCCs and is most frequent between the development and the mature phases of the MCC life cycle. The most active period is also characterized by the greatest average number of discrete strokes and largest fraction of multiple-stroke discharges. The total cloud-to-ground lightning activity and maximum flashing rate do not appear to be directly related to either the size of the cloud shield or total duration of the MCC.

Goodman, S. J.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Acquisition and production of skilled behavior in dynamic decision-making tasks

This status report consists of a thesis entitled 'Ecological Task Analysis: A Method for Display Enhancements.' Previous use of various analysis processes for the purpose of display interface design or enhancement has run the risk of failing to improve user performance due to the analysis resulting in only a sequencial listing of user tasks. Adopting an ecological approach to performing the task analysis, however, may result in the necessary modeling of an unpredictable and variable task domain required to improve user performance. Kirlik has proposed an Ecological Task Analysis framework which is designed for this purpose. It is the purpose of this research to measure this framework's effectiveness at enhancing display interfaces in order to improve user performance. Following the proposed framework, an ecological task analysis of experienced users of a complex and dynamic laboratory task, Star Cruiser, was performed. Based on this analysis, display enhancements were proposed and implemented. An experiment was then conducted to compare this new version of Star Cruiser to the original. By measuring user performance at different tasks, it was determined that during early sessions, use of the enhanced display contributed to better user performance compared to that achieved using the original display. Furthermore, the results indicate that the enhancements proposed as a result of the ecological task analysis affected user performance differently depending on whether they are enhancements which aid in the selection of a possible action or in the performance of an action. Generalizations of these findings to larger, more complex systems were avoided since the analysis was only performed on this one particular system.

Kirlik, Alex↗
NASA NTRS2008

Crystalline Membranes

In certain aspects, the invention features methods for forming crystalline membranes (e.g., a membrane of a framework material, such as a zeolite) by inducing secondary growth in a layer of oriented seed crystals. The rate of growth of the seed crystals in the plane of the substrate is controlled to be comparable to the rate of growth out of the plane. As a result, a crystalline membrane can form a substantially continuous layer including grains of uniform crystallographic orientation that extend through the depth of the layer.

Tsapatsis, Michael↗