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At least 343 records · Page 19

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DOE OSTI2021

Early Holocene cold snaps and their expression in the moraine record of the eastern European Alps

Glaciers preserve climate variations in their geological and geomorphological records, which makes them prime candidates for climate reconstructions. Investigating the glacier–climate system over the past millennia is particularly relevant first because the amplitude and frequency of natural climate variability during the Holocene provides the climatic context against which modern, human-induced climate change must be assessed. Second, the transition from the last glacial to the current interglacial promises important insights into the climate system during warming, which is of particular interest with respect to ongoing climate change. Evidence of stable ice margin positions that record cooling during the past 12 kyr are preserved in two glaciated valleys of the Silvretta Massif in the eastern European Alps, the Jamtal (JAM) and the Laraintal (LAR). We mapped and dated moraines in these catchments including historical ridges using beryllium-10 surface exposure dating (10Be SED) techniques and correlate resulting moraine formation intervals with climate proxy records to evaluate the spatial and temporal scale of these cold phases. The new geochronologies indicate the formation of moraines during the early Holocene (EH), ca. 11.0 ± 0.7 ka (n = 19). Boulder ages along historical moraines (n = 6) suggest at least two glacier advances during the Little Ice Age (LIA; ca. 1250–1850 CE) around 1300 CE and in the second half of the 18th century. An earlier advance to the same position may have occurred around 500 CE. The Jamtal and Laraintal moraine chronologies provide evidence that millennial-scale EH warming was superimposed by centennial-scale cooling. The timing of EH moraine formation coincides with brief temperature drops identified in local and regional paleoproxy records, most prominently with the Preboreal Oscillation (PBO) and is consistent with moraine deposition in other catchments in the European Alps and in the Arctic region. This consistency points to cooling beyond the local scale and therefore a regional or even hemispheric climate driver. Freshwater input sourced from the Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS), which changed circulation patterns in the North Atlantic, is a plausible explanation for EH cooling and moraine formation in the Nordic region and in Europe.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Joint effects of climate, tree size, and year on annual tree growth derived from tree–ring records of ten globally distributed forests

Tree rings provide an invaluable long-term record for understanding how climate and other drivers shape tree growth and forest productivity. However, conventional tree-ring analysis methods were not designed to simultaneously test effects of climate, tree size, and other drivers on individual growth. This has limited the potential to test ecologically relevant hypotheses on tree growth sensitivity to environmental drivers and their interactions with tree size. Here, we develop and apply a new method to simultaneously model nonlinear effects of primary climate drivers, reconstructed tree diameter at breast height (DBH), and calendar year in generalized least squares models that account for the temporal autocorrelation inherent to each individual tree's growth. We analyze data from 3811 trees representing 40 species at 10 globally distributed sites, showing that precipitation, temperature, DBH, and calendar year have additively, and often interactively, influenced annual growth over the past 120 years. Growth responses were predominantly positive to precipitation (usually over ≥3-month seasonal windows) and negative to temperature (usually maximum temperature, over ≤3-month seasonal windows), with concave-down responses in 63% of relationships. Climate sensitivity commonly varied with DBH (45% of cases tested), with larger trees usually more sensitive. Trends in ring width at small DBH were linked to the light environment under which trees established, but basal area or biomass increments consistently reached maxima at intermediate DBH. Accounting for climate and DBH, growth rate declined over time for 92% of species in secondary or disturbed stands, whereas growth trends were mixed in older forests. These trends were largely attributable to stand dynamics as cohorts and stands age, which remain challenging to disentangle from global change drivers. By providing a parsimonious approach for characterizing multiple interacting drivers of tree growth, our method reveals a more complete picture of the factors influencing growth than has previously been possible.

generalized least squares (GLS)↗

DOE OSTI2022

A framework for detection and attribution of regional precipitation change: Application to the United States historical record

Abstract Despite the emerging influence of anthropogenic climate change on the global water cycle, at regional scales the combination of observational uncertainty, large internal variability, and modeling uncertainty undermine robust statements regarding the human influence on precipitation. Here, we use output from global climate models in a perfect-data sense to develop a framework for conducting regional detection and attribution (D&A) for precipitation, starting with the contiguous United States (CONUS) where observational uncertainty is lower than in other regions. Our unified approach can simultaneously detect systematic trends in mean and extreme precipitation, attribute trends to anthropogenic forcings, compute the effects of forcings as a function of time, and map the effects of individual forcings. Model output is used to conduct a set of tests that yield a parsimonious representation for characterizing seasonal precipitation over the CONUS for the historical record (1900 to present day), which ensures our D&A is insensitive to structural uncertainty. Our framework is developed using synthetic data in a Pearl-causal perspective wherein causality can be identified using intervention-based simulations. While the hypothesis-based framework and accompanying generalized D&A formula we develop should be widely applicable, we include a strong caution that the hypothesis-guided simplification of the formula for the historical climatic record of CONUS as described in this paper will likely fail to hold in other geographic regions and under future warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Subdecadal Holocene Warm-Season Temperature Variability in Central Europe Recorded by Biochemical Varves

Paleoclimate data provide important information about the character of natural climate variability. However, records with sufficient length and resolution to resolve high-frequency (decadal-scale) variability across the Holocene are scarce. We present a 10,800-year reconstruction of spring and summer temperature at three-year resolution based on biochemical varves from Lake $\dot{Z}abi$$\acute{n}skie$, Poland. The reconstruction is based on Ca/Ti ratio, which are significantly correlated with instrumental spring and summer temperature spanning 240 years. Major climate events of the Holocene period are represented in the reconstruction, including the Holocene Thermal Maximum, 8.2 ka Event, Medieval Climate Anomaly, and Little Ice Age. A low-frequency 8,000-year decreasing trend in warm-season temperatures is driven by declining summer insolation. Temperature variability is highest during the early Holocene, likely related to warmer and drier conditions. The rate of warming during the past 90 years is extremely unusual, if not unprecedented for the Holocene, based on our reconstruction.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

The Brachiopod δ 11 B Record Across the Carboniferous-Permian Climate Transition

In this work, we present the δ 11 B of well-preserved brachiopod fossils coupled with geochemical modeling to examine how seawater boron responded to abrupt and dynamic climate changes in the Late Paleozoic. The Late Carboniferous, a time of major coal formation and glacioeustatic sea level changes, is characterized by relatively stable brachiopod δ11B of 15–17‰, similar to values seen in modern brachiopods. Brachiopod δ 11 B dropped by ~5‰ in the early Permian and then restabilized at a new value of 10‰ within a few million years. Mass balance models of seawater δ 11 B reproduced the overall trends in our brachiopod data but failed to capture the large drop in δ11B in the early Permian. Published seawater 87 Sr/ 86 Sr and δ 44 / 40 Ca data based on brachiopod shells also shift to lower values in the early Permian, suggesting a common control on all three seawater isotope systems. The Permian terrestrial record of evaporites and eolian deposits suggests a prolonged reduced delivery of dissolved weathering products to the ocean, accounting for the change in seawater 87 Sr/ 86 Sr. This reduced weathering, in turn, led to increased atmospheric CO 2 and lowered seawater pH, which may have significantly decreased major removal mechanisms for seawater calcium and boron leading to declines in both isotope systems. We propose that boron removal via coprecipitation in carbonates and adsorption onto clay minerals was significantly diminished due to a reduction in the availability of the borate aqueous species caused by lowered seawater pH.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2017

Unraveling the Diversity of Early Aqueous Environments and Climate on Mars Through the Phyllosilicate Record

Were Martian phyllosilicates formed on the surface or subsurface? Was early Mars warm or cold? How long was liquid water present on the surface of Mars? These are some of the many open questions about our neighboring planet. We propose that the mineralogy of the clay-bearing outcrops on Mars can help address these questions. Abundant phyllosilicates and aqueous minerals are observed nearly everywhere we can see the ancient rocks on Mars. Most bountiful among these is Fe/Mg-smectite. In this study we evaluate the nature and stratigraphy of clay outcrops observed on Mars and the presence of mixtures of other clays or other minerals with the ubiquitous Fe/Mg-smectite.

Bishop, J. L.↗

NASA NTRS2019

NASA Plankton, Aerosol, Cloud, Ocean Ecosystem (PACE) Mission: Applications

PACE will extend and improve NASA's 20-plus years of global satellite observations of our living ocean, aerosols, and clouds and initiate an advanced set of climate-relevant data records. By determining the distribution of phytoplankton, PACE will help assess ocean health. It will also continue key measurements related to air quality and climate. This strategic mission is a Program of Record in the 2017 Decadal Survey for Earth Science and Applications for Space.

Kim, Grace↗

NASA NTRS2004

The Subsurface Ice Probe (SIPR): A Low-Power Thermal Probe for the Martian Polar Layered Deposits

The distinctive layering visible in images from Mars Global Surveyor of the Martian polar caps, and particularly in the north polar cap, indicates that the stratigraphy of these polar layered deposits may hold a record of Martian climate history covering millions of years. On Earth, ice sheets are cored to retrieve a pristine record of the physical and chemical properties of the ice at depth, and then studied in exacting detail in the laboratory. On the Martian north polar cap, coring is probably not a practical method for implementation in an autonomous lander. As an alternative, thermal probes that drill by melting into the ice are feasible for autonomous operation, and are capable of reasonable approximations to the scientific investigations performed on terrestrial cores, while removing meltwater to the surface for analysis. The Subsurface Ice Probe (SIPR) is such a probe under development at JPL. To explore the dominant climate cycles, it is postulated that tens of meters of depth should be profiled, as this corresponds to the vertical separation of the major layers visible in the MOC images [1]. Optical and spectroscopic analysis of the layers, presumably demarcated by embedded dust and possibly by changes in the ice properties, would contribute to the construction of a chronology. Meltwater analysis may be used to determine the soluble chemistry of the embedded dust, and to monitor gradients of atmospheric gases, particularly hydrogen and oxygen, and isotopic variations that reflect atmospheric conditions at the time the layer was deposited. Thermal measurements can be used to determine the geothermal gradient and the bulk mechanical properties of the ice.

Cardell, G.↗

NASA NTRS2010

TPSAS-NF1676L-10863-DND

One important aspect of successful climate monitoring is satellite calibration. There is at least a 25-year of operational geostationary (GEO) record available for climate studies, if properly calibrated. The Global Space-based Inter-Calibration System (GSICS) project is another effort to provide the climate community consistent calibration across multiple platforms. Also, the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) project, provides consistent GEO retrieved cloud properties and derived broadband fluxes across multiple platforms. This year GSICS is focusing on geostationary visible channel calibration. The GSICS strategy is to use multiple approaches, such as cross-calibrating the GEO radiances against MODIS as a reference, deep convective clouds as bright stable targets, deserts, sun-glint, stars, moon and other model based calibration methods. Each of these methods is independent of each other and can assess the stability of the GEO visible instrument with differing uncertainties. This study focuses on the inter-calibration of the GEO radiances against MODIS as a reference by using collocated, and coincident ray-matched radiances. The advantage of the ray-matching technique is that it provides a full dynamic range of radiances to check the linearity of the GEO visible instrument. This presentation will focus on the technique, some error analysis, comparisons with other methods, and an approach to inter-calibrate historical GEOs before MODIS.

D R Doelling↗

NASA NTRS1989

Calculating climate attractor dimension from delta O-18 records by the Grassberger-Procaccia algorithm

The Grassberger-Procaccia method of calculating dimension from a time series is applied to 14 late Pleistocene delta O-18 records. A step-by-step sequence leading from data to the Grassberger-Procaccia dimension is outlined, and the problems encountered when dealing with observed (as opposed to theoretical) data are discussed; for the climatic proxy data these problems include situations where the time series is not very long, is noisy and/or smoothed, and is not sampled at a constant time interval. The delta O-18 records to be used are described, and the results are presented and compared with previously published dimension calculations. New dimension interpretations are assessed, and an example using a synthetic time series that illustrates the possible error due to inconsistencies in the time scale is analyzed.

Maasch, Kirk A.↗

NASA NTRS2016

The Mexican Drought Atlas: Tree-Ring Reconstructions of the Soil Moisture Balance During the Late Pre-Hispanic, Colonial, and Modern Eras

Mexico has suffered a long history and prehistory of severe sustained drought. Drought over Mexico is modulated by ocean-atmospheric variability in the Atlantic and Pacific, raising the possibility for long-range seasonal climate forecasting, which could help mediate the economic and social impacts of future dry spells. The instrumental record of Mexican climate is very limited before 1920, but tree-ring chronologies developed from old-growth forests in Mexico can provide an excellent proxy representation of the spatial pattern and intensity of past moisture regimes useful for the analysis of climate dynamics and climate impacts. The Mexican Drought Atlas (MXDA) has been developed from an extensive network of 252 climate sensitive tree-ring chronologies in and near Mexico. The MXDA reconstructions extend from 1400 CE-2012 and were calibrated with the instrumental summer (JJA) self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI) on a 0.5deg latitude/longitude grid extending over land areas from 14 to 34degN and 75-120degW using Ensemble Point-by-Point Regression (EPPR) for the 1944-1984 period. The grid point reconstructions were validated for the period 1920-1943 against instrumental gridded scPDSI values based on the fewer weather station observations available during that interval. The MXDA provides a new spatial perspective on the historical impacts of moisture extremes over Mexico during the past 600-years, including the Aztec Drought of One Rabbit in 1454, the drought of El Ano de Hambre in 1785-1786, and the drought that preceded the Mexican Revolution of 1909-1910. The El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most important ocean-atmospheric forcing of moisture variability detected with the MXDA. In fact, the reconstructions suggest that the strongest central equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) teleconnection to the soil moisture balance over North America may reside in northern Mexico. This ENSO signal has stronger and more time-stable correlations than computed for either the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation or Pacific Decadal Oscillation. The extended Multivariate ENSO Index is most highly correlated with reconstructed scPDSI over northern Mexico, where warm events favor moist conditions during the winter, spring, and early summer. This ENSO teleconnection to northern Mexico has been strong over the past 150 years, but it has been comparatively weak and non-stationary in the MXDA over central and southern Mexico where eastern tropical Pacific and Caribbean/tropical Atlantic SSTs seem to be more important. The ENSO teleconnection to northern Mexico is weaker in the available instrumental PDSI, but analyses based on the millennium climate simulations with the Community Earth System Model suggest that the moisture balance during the winter, spring, and early summer over northern Mexico may indeed be particularly sensitive to ENSO forcing. Nationwide drought is predicted to become more common with anthropogenic climate change, but the MXDA reconstructions indicate that intense "All Mexico" droughts have been rare over the past 600 years and their frequency does not appear to have increased substantially in recent decades.

El Nino↗

NASA NTRS1993

Satellite orbit and data sampling requirements

Climate forcings and feedbacks vary over a wide range of time and space scales. The operation of non-linear feedbacks can couple variations at widely separated time and space scales and cause climatological phenomena to be intermittent. Consequently, monitoring of global, decadal changes in climate requires global observations that cover the whole range of space-time scales and are continuous over several decades. The sampling of smaller space-time scales must have sufficient statistical accuracy to measure the small changes in the forcings and feedbacks anticipated in the next few decades, while continuity of measurements is crucial for unambiguous interpretation of climate change. Shorter records of monthly and regional (500-1000 km) measurements with similar accuracies can also provide valuable information about climate processes, when 'natural experiments' such as large volcanic eruptions or El Ninos occur. In this section existing satellite datasets and climate model simulations are used to test the satellite orbits and sampling required to achieve accurate measurements of changes in forcings and feedbacks at monthly frequency and 1000 km (regional) scale.

Rossow, William↗

NASA NTRS2000

Insolation and the Precession Index

Simple nonlinear climate models yield a precession index-like term in the temperature. Despite its importance in the geologic record, the precession index e sin omega, where e is the Earth's orbital eccentricity and omega is the Sun's perigee in the geocentric frame, is not present in the insolation at the top of the atmosphere. Hence there is no one-for-one mapping of 23,000 and 19,000 year periodicities from the insolation to the paleoclimate record; a nonlinear climate model is needed to produce these periods. Two such models, a grey body and an energy balance climate model with an added quadratic term, produce e sin omega terms in temperature. These terms, which without feedback mechanisms achieve extreme values of about plus or minus 0.48 K for the grey body and plus or minus 0.64 K for the energy balance model, simultaneously cool one hemisphere while they warm the other. Moreover, they produce long-term cooling in the northern hemisphere when the Sun's perigee is near northern solstice and long-term warming in the northern hemisphere when the perigee is near southern solstice. Thus this seemingly paradoxical mechanism works against the standard model which requires cool northern summers (Sun far from Earth in northern summer) to build up northern ice sheets, so that if the standard model is correct it may be more efficient than previously thought. Alternatively, the new mechanism could possibly be dominant and indicate southern hemisphere control of the northern ice sheets, wherein the southern oceans undergo a long-term cooling when the Sun is close to the Earth during southern summer. The cold water eventually flows north, cooling the northern hemisphere. This might explain why the northern oceans lag the southern ones when it comes to orbital forcing.

Rubincam, David Parry↗

NASA NTRS2004

The Precession Index and a Nonlinear Energy Balance Climate Model

A simple nonlinear energy balance climate model yields a precession index-like term in the temperature. Despite its importance in the geologic record, the precession index e sin (Omega)S, where e is the Earth's orbital eccentricity and (Omega)S is the Sun's perigee in the geocentric frame, is not present in the insolation at the top of the atmosphere. Hence there is no one-for-one mapping of 23,000 and 19,000 year periodicities from the insolation to the paleoclimate record; a nonlinear climate model is needed to produce these long periods. A nonlinear energy balance climate model with radiative terms of form T n, where T is surface temperature and n less than 1, does produce e sin (omega)S terms in temperature; the e sin (omega)S terms are called Seversmith psychroterms. Without feedback mechanisms, the model achieves extreme values of 0.64 K at the maximum orbital eccentricity of 0.06, cooling one hemisphere while simultaneously warming the other; the hemisphere over which perihelion occurs is the cooler. In other words, the nonlinear energy balance model produces long-term cooling in the northern hemisphere when the Sun's perihelion is near northern summer solstice and long-term warming in the northern hemisphere when the aphelion is near northern summer solstice. (This behavior is similar to the inertialess gray body which radiates like T 4, but the amplitude is much lower for the energy balance model because of its thermal inertia.) This seemingly paradoxical behavior works against the standard Milankovitch model, which requires cool northern summers (Sun far from Earth in northern summer) to build up northern ice sheets, so that if the standard model is correct it must be more efficient than previously thought. Alternatively, the new mechanism could possibly be dominant and indicate southern hemisphere control of the northern ice sheets, wherein the southern oceans undergo a long-term cooling when the Sun is far from the Earth during northern summer. The cold water eventually flows north, cooling the northern hemisphere. This might explain why the northern oceans lag the southern ones when it comes to orbital forcing.

Rubincam, David↗

NASA NTRS2006

Characterizing the LANDSAT Global Long-Term Data Record

The effects of global climate change are fast becoming politically, sociologically, and personally important: increasing storm frequency and intensity, lengthening cycles of drought and flood, expanding desertification and soil salinization. A vital asset in the analysis of climate change on a global basis is the 34-year record of Landsat imagery. In recognition of its increasing importance, a detailed analysis of the Landsat observation coverage within the US archive was commissioned. Results to date indicate some unexpected gaps in the US-held archive. Fortunately, throughout the Landsat program, data have been downlinked routinely to International Cooperator (IC) ground stations for archival, processing, and distribution. These IC data could be combined with the current US holdings to build a nearly global, annual observation record over this 34-year period. Today, we have inadequate information as to which scenes are available from which IC archives. Our best estimate is that there are over four million digital scenes in the IC archives, compared with the nearly two million scenes held in the US archive. This vast pool of Landsat observations needs to be accurately documented, via metadata, to determine the existence of complementary scenes and to characterize the potential scope of the global Landsat observation record. Of course, knowing the extent and completeness of the data record is but the first step. It will be necessary to assure that the data record is easy to use, internally consistent in terms of calibration and data format, and fully accessible in order to fully realize its potential.

Arvidson, T.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Long Day's Drive: An Alternative Paradigm for Martian Robotic Exploration

Long Day's Drive (LLD) will investigate the north polar layered deposits (PLD). The overarching science rationale for LDD is the belief that the PLD preserve within their stratigraphy an interpretable record of recent climate and geologic history for Mars. Our primary goal is to obtain data that can provide a basis for interpreting that record. In addition, we will test the hypothesis that the ice of the PLD contains organics at higher concentrations than the aeolian dust sampled at the two Viking sites. Finally, we seek to contribute to the understanding of Mars' total volatile inventory by detailed determination of the ice content of the PLD over the traverse.

Sims, M. H.↗

NASA NTRS2023

Drought and Deluge: the Recurrence of Hydroclimate Extremes During the Past 600 Years in Eastern Australia’s Natural Resource Management (NRM) Clusters

Recent extremes of flood and drought across Australia have raised questions about the recurrence of such rare events and highlighted the importance of understanding multi-decadal climate variability. However, instrumental records over the past century are too short to adequately characterise climate variability on multi-decadal and longer timescales or robustly determine extreme event frequencies and their duration. Palaeoclimate reconstructions can provide much-needed information to help address this problem. Here, we use the 600-year hydroclimate record captured in the eastern Australian and New Zealand Drought Atlas (ANZDA) to analyse drought and pluvial frequency trends for East Australian Natural Resource Management (NRM) clusters. This partitioning of the drought atlas grid points into recognised biophysical areas (i.e. NRM clusters) revealed their differences and similarities in drought intensity and pluvial events over time. We find sustained multi-decadal periods of a wet–dry geographic 'seesaw' between eastern to central and southern NRMs (e.g. 1550–1600 CE and 1700–1750 CE). In contrast, other periods reveal spatially consistent wetting (e.g. 1500–1550 CE) or drying (e.g. 1750–1800 CE). Emerging hot spot analysis further shows that some areas that appear naturally buffered from severe drought during the instrumental period have a greater exposure risk when the longer 600-year record is considered. These findings are particularly relevant to management plans when dealing with the impacts of climate extremes developed at regional scales. Our results demonstrate that integrating and extending instrumental records with palaeoclimate datasets will become increasingly important for developing robust and locally specific extreme event frequency information for managing water resources.

Australian hydroclimate↗

DOE OSTI2023

Coastal Sea Level Observations Record the Twentieth-Century Enhancement of Decadal Climate Variability

Changes in the amplitude of decadal climate variability over the twentieth century have been noted, with most evidence derived from tropical Pacific sea surface temperature records. However, the length, spatial coverage, and stability of most instrumental records are insufficient to robustly identify such nonstationarity, or resolve its global spatial structure. Here, it is found that the long-term, stable, observing platform provided by tide gauges reveals a dramatic increase in the amplitude and spatial coherence of decadal (11–14-yr period) coastal sea level (ζ) variability between 1960 and 2000. During this epoch, western North American ζ was approximately out of phase with ζ in Sydney, Australia, and led northeastern U.S. ζ by approximately 1–2 years. The amplitude and timing of changes in decadal ζ variability in these regions are consistent with changes in atmospheric variability. Specifically, central equatorial Pacific wind stress and Labrador Sea heat flux are highly coherent and exhibit contemporaneous, order-of-magnitude increases in decadal power. These statistical relationships have a mechanistic underpinning: Along the western North American coastline, equatorial winds are known to drive rapidly propagating ζ signals along equatorial and coastal waveguides, while a 1–2-yr lag between Labrador Sea heat fluxes and northeastern United States ζ is consistent with a remotely forced, buoyancy-driven, mechanism. Tide gauges thus provide strong independent support for an increase in interbasin coherence on decadal time scales over the second half of the twentieth century, with implications for both the interpretation and prediction of climate and sea level variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗