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At least 343 records · Page 19
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Assessing Climate Change-Induced Variability in Generation Potential and Droughts of Renewable Energy Systems in India

Solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind energy systems are crucial for decarbonizing the electricity sector and achieving climate goals. However, these systems are weather-dependent, and ignoring the potential changes in their generation levels due to climate change could compromise achieving climate targets and meeting future electricity demand. This study evaluates the impact of climate change on the generation potential of wind and solar PV systems in India for three future periods, 2030 (2021-2040), 2050 (2041-2060), and 2070 (2061-2080) compared to the baseline year 2000 (1991-2010), under three emission scenarios: SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585. Solar PV generation levels consistently decline (up to 10 %) across all regions and scenarios. Wind energy shows more pronounced variability (-20 % to 30 %). The South and Southeastern regions of India show improvements in wind potential across all scenarios and time periods. This study also investigated the projected changes in the generation droughts of both energy systems. For solar PV, drought days increase across most regions (exceeding 500 days under SSP370 across the 20-year period). In contrast, wind energy sees a reduction in drought days, especially in parts of South and Southeast India (declines exceeding 50 days across different scenarios). For both energy systems, the patterns of generation drought and generation potential are similar, and indicate that Western and Northern India may be less favorable for the future expansion of solar PV and wind energy, respectively. These results highlight the need to account for the potential impacts in future capacity planning.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Simulation of hydropower at subcontinental to global scales: a state-of-the-art review

Abstract Hydroelectric power is playing a new and often expanded role in the world’s major power grids, offering low carbon generating capacity in industrializing, dam-building economies while providing reserve and flexibility to co-manage fledgling wind and solar resources in high income countries. Driven by river flows, conventional hydropower is exposed to the vagaries of weather and climate, motivating drought and climate change hydropower impact studies at large spatial scales. Here we review methods of climate-driven hydropower simulation at large spatial scales, specifically multi-basin regions to global. We identify four types of approach based on complexity of tools and richness of data applied to the problem. Since the earliest attempts to model climate-driven hydropower at continental scale almost two decades ago, the field has transitioned from one of scientific curiosity to practical application, with studies increasingly motivated by the need to inform power grid expansion planning and operation. As the hydrological and water management models used in large-scale hydropower studies become more sophisticated, new opportunities will emerge to study the impacts of changing hydropower on power system reliability and performance at large power grid scale. To grasp these opportunities, the water resources community must continue to enhance data and models for representing river flows and anthropogenic water use and management at subcontinental to global scales.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Bayesian blacksmithing: discovering thermomechanical properties and deformation mechanisms in high-entropy refractory alloys

Finding alloys with specific design properties is challenging due to the large number of possible compositions and the complex interactions between elements. This study introduces a multi-objective Bayesian optimization approach guiding molecular dynamics simulations for discovering high-performance refractory alloys with both targeted intrinsic static thermomechanical properties and also deformation mechanisms occurring during dynamic loading. The objective functions are aiming for excellent thermomechanical stability via a high bulk modulus, a low thermal expansion, a high heat capacity, and for a resilient deformation mechanism maximizing the retention of the BCC phase after shock loading. Contrasting two optimization procedures, we show that the Pareto-optimal solutions are confined to a small performance space when the property objectives display a cooperative relationship. Conversely, the Pareto front is much broader in the performance space when these properties have antagonistic relationships. Density functional theory simulations validate these findings and unveil underlying atomic-bond changes driving property improvements.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Visual‐Analytics Bridge Complexity and Accessibility for Robust Urban Water Planning

Urban water resources planning is complicated by unprecedented uncertainty in supply and demand. Real‐world planning often simplifies the full range of uncertainty faced by a system into a limited set of deterministic scenarios to enhance accessibility for decision‐makers and the public. However, overlooking uncertainty can expose the system to failures. On the other end of the spectrum, academically developed tools for scenario analysis rigorously quantify the combined effects of multiple sources of uncertainty, but the practical application of these models is limited by the challenges of information visualization and communication of results. In short, municipal water supply planners lack access to planning frameworks that effectively integrate a rigorous treatment of uncertainty with accessible, user‐friendly visual and interactive tools to enhance user accessibility. In this work, we fill this gap by proposing Visual‐Robust Decision Making, and demonstrate an application for the city of Santa Barbara (SB), CA. Santa Barbara faces multiple uncertainties from pending state and federal regulations to changing hydrology and water demand. The city seeks to increase its water portfolio robustness by expanding its seawater desalination plant, but must decide how much capacity to add. We introduce computational tools that assess uncertainty across nine uncertain drivers identified with the help of water planners in SB. To allow public participation in the desalination expansion decision, we develop interactive visual‐analytics to aid decision‐makers and stakeholders in navigating complex scenario analysis outcomes. Our results quantify the tradeoffs between increased capacity and system robustness and aim to enhance participation and uncertainty characterization of urban water planning efforts.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Spontaneous and reversible hollowing of alloy anode nanocrystals for stable battery cycling

High-capacity alloy anode materials for Li-ion batteries have long been held back by limited cyclability caused by the large volume changes during lithium insertion and removal. Hollow and yolk-shell nanostructures have been used to increase the cycling stability by providing an inner void space to accommodate volume changes and a mechanically and dimensionally stable outer surface. These materials, however, require complex synthesis procedures. Here, using in situ transmission electron microscopy, we show that sufficiently small antimony nanocrystals spontaneously form uniform voids on the removal of lithium, which are then reversibly filled and vacated during cycling. This behaviour is found to arise from a resilient native oxide layer that allows for an initial expansion during lithiation but mechanically prevents shrinkage as antimony forms voids during delithiation. In this work, we developed a chemomechanical model that explains these observations, and we demonstrate that this behaviour is size dependent. Thus, antimony naturally evolves to form optimal nanostructures for alloy anodes, as we show through electrochemical experiments in a half-cell configuration in which 15-nm antimony nanocrystals have a consistently higher Coulombic efficiency than larger nanoparticles.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Methods for Assessing Opportunities for Ring Dam Pumped Storage Hydropower

There is growing interest in new pumped storage hydropower (PSH) deployment to provide a range of grid flexibility, reliability, and resiliency services under an evolving and uncertain future power sector. The National Laboratory of the Rockies develops open PSH resource assessment and cost modeling tools to help evaluate PSH deployment opportunities, and this report describes expansions to those tools to consider an additional PSH system configuration - ring-dam reservoirs built on flat topographical features that are constructed from roller-compacted concrete material. This reservoir type is common among current PSH proposals and requires new methods to identify sites with this reservoir geometry throughout the United States and characterize the associated dam cost. Cost characterization for ring dam reservoirs required collecting historical dam cost data for earthen, rockfill, and roller-compacted concrete dams and regressing equations that relate costs between alternative materials. The ring dam site identification algorithm follows a 5-step procedure to identify circular geometry reservoirs. Once ring dam reservoirs are identified, they are then paired with potential dry-gully reservoirs, and the full set of potential paired reservoirs is cost-optimized to produce a least-cost set of potential PSH sites with no overlapping reservoirs. The resulting analysis found 1,663 ring-dam to dry-gully systems in the contiguous United States that are lower cost than any overlapping dry-gully to dry-gully systems, 29 in Alaska, and none in Hawaii or Puerto Rico. These systems constitute 1.5 TW of capacity in the contiguous United States and nearly 29 GW in Alaska, demonstrating that under suitable topography and head, ring-dam systems can provide cost-effective PSH opportunities. The greatest density of these opportunities are found in the intermountain west where there are mesas and flat land at bases of mountain ranges, but continued work could incorporate additional site characteristics or consider more complex reservoir shapes to find additional PSH deployment opportunities.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Magnetism and finite-temperature effects in UZr 2 : A density functional theory analysis

The structure and the thermophysical properties of d-UZr 2 are investigated using 0 K density functional theory and ab initio molecular dynamics (AIMD). Modeling the true paramagnetic state of this intermetallic compound has been challenging using first-principles calculations. For the first time, we find that the generalized gradient approximation method without applying an on-site Coulomb interaction term (Hubbard U) can result in a ground state that is antiferromagnetic (AFM). We believe that this weak AFM ground state is the closest to the real paramagnetic state. We found that structure optimization at finite temperatures using AIMD is necessary to achieve this ground state instead of the non-magnetic and ferromagnetic states previously reported in the literature. Our findings indicate that applying the Hubbard U on uranium f-orbitals in this metallic system is unnecessary and not recommended, as it leads to a large overestimation of the volume and introduces an unphysical strong spin polarization. Finally, our approach results in atomic volume, thermal expansion, and heat capacities that have strong agreement with experiments.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Technology Pathways Could Help Drive the U.S. West Coast Grid's Exposure to Hydrometeorological Uncertainty

Abstract Previous studies investigating deep decarbonization of bulk electric power systems and wholesale electricity markets have not sufficiently explored how future grid pathways could affect the grid's vulnerability to hydrometeorological uncertainty on multiple timescales. Here, we employ a grid operations model and a large synthetic weather ensemble to “stress test” a range of future grid pathways for the U.S. West Coast developed by ReEDS, a well‐known capacity planning model. Our results show that gradual changes in the underlying capacity mix from 2020 to 2050 can cause significant “re‐ranking” of weather years in terms of annual wholesale electricity prices (with “good” years becoming bad, and vice versa). Nonetheless, we find the highest and lowest ranking price years in terms of average electricity price remain mostly tied to extremes in hydropower availability (streamflow) and load (summer temperatures), with the strongest sensitivities related to drought. Seasonal dynamics seen today involving spring snowmelt and hot, dry summers remain well‐defined out to 2050. In California, future supply shortfalls in our model are concentrated in the evening and occur mostly during periods of high temperature anomalies in late summer months and in late winter; in the Pacific Northwest, supply shortfalls are much more strongly tied to negative streamflow anomalies. Under our more robust sampling of stationary hydrometeorological uncertainty, we also find that the ratio of dis‐patchable thermal (i.e., natural gas) capacity to wind and solar required to ensure grid reliability can differ significantly from values reported by ReEDS.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Capabilities Development at the University of Texas at El Paso for Hydrogen Generation Research and Education

Gasification-based systems have recently received much attention due to their capability of converting wastes into useful fuels. The gasification of biomass, municipal solid waste (MSW), plastics, and other sustainable resources has shown promise in hydrogen production. When coupled to a CCU or CCS unit, these systems have the potential to achieve carbon neutrality or carbon-negative emissions. In addition, these systems have an edge over conventional incineration or landfill systems by reducing greenhouse gas emissions and recovering useful energy. However, the gasification of MSW and other wastes is still in its early stages. In particular, co-gasification of wastes with biomass has significant unknowns in optimizing the reaction kinetics, operability, design and performance improvements. Currently, Supercritical Water Gasifiers (SCWG) and Plasma Gasifiers are the major systems that are capable of producing high hydrogen amounts from Biomass and MSW, respectively. However, both systems have high capital and operating costs, adversely affecting efficiency and the hydrogen production cost. Additionally, due to lower temperatures, SCWGs are prone to tar formation and fouling in the heat exchangers. Hence, there is a need to look for alternative solutions for MSW and biomass gasifications, particularly in co-gasification. The current effort aims to develop a strategic plan to establish a sustainable gasification facility for hydrogen research at the University of Texas at El (UTEP). A major part of this effort involves an extensive literature survey to identify technological gaps and potential areas of interest. Several concepts were developed in accordance with the current demands from the literature survey. Based on the concepts, a center-wide capability assessment was conducted to measure the current capacity and feasibility of establishing hydrogen research. Afterward, a strategic research plan was developed, and a list of required resources was made for the expansion of hydrogen research at UTEP. In addition, successful partnerships with the local county and the city were developed to pursue hydrogen research. The strategic goal setting and planning of UTEP Aerospace Center resulted in securing $2.5 million in external support to expand the hydrogen research during the project performance period. In addition, during the project period, a course in Hydrogen Energy Systems was developed to expand the energy curriculum at the UTEP Aerospace and Mechanical Engineering Department. The course focused on hydrogen production, storage, supply and delivery and application. The cross-listed course was offered at both undergraduate and graduate levels during the Spring 2024 semester and had 27 enrolled students. Moreover, the students supported under this award were trained in gasification process modeling, CAD, CFD and FEA during the project period. The training enabled the students to move into new projects to support gasification design, integrated gasification combined cycle process plant analysis, gasifier structural and operational analysis, and digitally threading the systems.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2025

Agrivoltaic Grazing Systems for a Sustainable Future: A Multi‐Disciplinary Review & Gap Analysis

Solar photovoltaics (PV) is the fastest growing source of electricity in the world, however, its expansion has raised concerns about the displacement of agriculture and the degradation of rangeland ecosystems. This has prompted research and development of multi-land-use systems that co-prioritize energy production alongside agriculture, commonly referred to as agrivoltaics. Currently, agrivoltaic grazing (also called solar grazing) is one of the most common forms of these systems. However, peer-reviewed research on these systems is limited. This review synthesizes research on agrivoltaic grazing systems, drawing upon literature addressing agrivoltaics broadly and considering relevant literature in adjacent fields of study. Based on this review, we identify six key gaps and priority directions for future research. These include foundational fieldwork to characterize the layered ecological impacts of solar PV and grazing and understand PV-livestock integration from both an animal welfare and a PV infrastructure perspective. This will facilitate the development of biogeochemical and economic models that improve our predictive capacity and ability to compare system designs. We also identify gaps in understanding the human aspects of these systems and emphasize the importance of utilizing collaborative research methods and increasing research on the social dimensions of agrivoltaic grazing systems.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evolving Competitive Markets in SAPP: Leveraging Competitive Wholesale Electricity Markets to Drive Renewable Generation Capacity in the Southern African Power Pool (SAPP)

The SADC region has significant natural resource potential to increase renewable energy generation, improve electricity reliability, and support economic development. This research finds an apparent lack of confidence from electricity infrastructure investors in SAPP wholesale electricity markets, which increases risk perception and lowers the likelihood of capital deployment. With respect to free market fundamentals, competitive market obstacles and renewable energy development obstacles are characterized. Stakeholders identified the top obstacles to well-functioning competitive markets as insufficient transmission infrastructure for interconnection and regional movement of electricity, dominance of national single-buyer markets, and lack of or weak nation-state regulatory frameworks. Stakeholders prioritized the top three obstacles for renewable energy development as a lack of viable commercial arrangements for variable renewable energy (VRE) balancing, lack of functional and consistent nation-level regulations, and higher project costs related to reliance on imported equipment. With respect to potential solution options, stakeholders prioritized the development of new cost allocation and finance methods to facilitate new transmission expansion, training to educate new or potential new market entrants on SAPP processes, as well as modeling and analysis of regional SAPP participation benefits disaggregated to the nation-state level. From these perspectives, this research identified strategy options for consideration including transitioning SAPP to a regional transmission operator (RTO) for operation and planning of cross-border transmission facilities and market administration, shifting operations of SAPP member transmission systems to Independent System Operators (ISOs), establishing a regional regulatory authority and enhancing market data transparency. Implementing these reforms is expected to be challenging, but not insurmountable, given the domestic political, legal, and jurisdictional complexities of the SADC region.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

The tRNA discriminator base defines the mutual orthogonality of two distinct pyrrolysyl-tRNA synthetase/tRNAPyl pairs in the same organism

Abstract Site-specific incorporation of distinct non-canonical amino acids into proteins via genetic code expansion requires mutually orthogonal aminoacyl-tRNA synthetase/tRNA pairs. Pyrrolysyl-tRNA synthetase (PylRS)/tRNAPyl pairs are ideal for genetic code expansion and have been extensively engineered for developing mutually orthogonal pairs. Here, we identify two novel wild-type PylRS/tRNAPyl pairs simultaneously present in the deep-rooted extremely halophilic euryarchaeal methanogen Candidatus Methanohalarchaeum thermophilum HMET1, and show that both pairs are functional in the model halophilic archaeon Haloferax volcanii. These pairs consist of two different PylRS enzymes and two distinct tRNAs with dissimilar discriminator bases. Surprisingly, these two PylRS/tRNAPyl pairs display mutual orthogonality enabled by two unique features, the A73 discriminator base of tRNAPyl2 and a shorter motif 2 loop in PylRS2. In vivo translation experiments show that tRNAPyl2 charging by PylRS2 is defined by the enzyme's shortened motif 2 loop. Finally, we demonstrate that the two HMET1 PylRS/tRNAPyl pairs can simultaneously decode UAG and UAA codons for incorporation of two distinct noncanonical amino acids into protein. This example of a single base change in a tRNA leading to additional coding capacity suggests that the growth of the genetic code is not yet limited by the number of identity elements fitting into the tRNA structure.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Techno-economic optimization of renewable urea production for sustainable agriculture and CO 2 utilization

Abstract Urea is the most used nitrogen fertilizer due to its ease of storage, transportation, and application. It is made by combining ammonia and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), both of which are produced predominantly from fossil fuels at present. The recent momentum behind ammonia production using renewable-powered electrolysis offers an opportunity to both make urea in a more sustainable way and utilize CO 2 from external sources. In this work, we present a techno-economic optimization model to minimize the cost of making urea in this way. The model allows for time-varying chemical production in response to renewable variability by simultaneously optimizing production facility design and hourly operation. We performed a case study for Minnesota considering the use of byproduct CO 2 from bioethanol production. We found that the present-day levelized cost of renewable urea is between $268 mt −1 and $413 mt −1 at likely implementable production scales up to 250 000 mt yr −1 . This is within the range of historical conventional urea prices while offering at least 78% carbon intensity reduction. Projecting to 2030, there is a clear economic case for renewable urea production with levelized cost as low as $135 mt −1 due to technology improvement and electrolysis manufacturing expansion, facilitating a urea production scale increase to 525 000 mt yr −1 . Optimal facilities use wind energy, with hydrogen and ammonia production operating in a flexible, time-varying way to minimize battery and hydrogen storage capacities. Urea production operates near steady state due to the relatively low cost of intermediate ammonia buffer storage. A mix of imported methane and locally produced hydrogen are used to provide heat for steam consumed in the urea synthesis.

Chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2020

Effect of Fluorination on Lithium Transport and Short-Range Order in Disordered-Rocksalt-Type Lithium-Ion Battery Cathodes

Fluorine substitution is a critical enabler for improving the cycle life and energy density of disordered rocksalt (DRX) Li-ion battery cathode materials which offer prospects for high energy density cathodes, without the reliance on limited mineral resources. Due to the strong Li–F interaction, fluorine also is expected to modify the short-range cation order in these materials which is critical for Li-ion transport. In this work, density functional theory and Monte Carlo simulations are combined to investigate the impact of Li–F short-range ordering on the formation of Li percolation and diffusion in DRX materials. Additionally, the modeling reveals that F substitution is always beneficial at sufficiently high concentrations and can, surprisingly, even facilitate percolation in compounds without Li excess, giving them the ability to incorporate more transition metal redox capacity and thereby higher energy density. It is found that for F levels below 15%, its effect can be beneficial or disadvantageous depending on the intrinsic short-range order in the unfluorinated oxide, while for high fluorination levels the effects are always beneficial. Using extensive simulations, a map is also presented showing the trade-off between transition-metal capacity, Li-transport, and synthetic accessibility, and two of the more extreme predictions are experimentally confirmed.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Production and Chemical Analysis of NaCl-KCl-UCl 3 Salts

Thermochemical and thermophysical properties of several molten salt systems of interest to molten salt reactor (MSR) developers are being measured at Argonne National Laboratory. These properties are needed by developers to design, license, and operate their reactors. Thermochemical properties being measured at Argonne include thermal transitions, phase behavior, and heat capacity. Thermophysical properties being measured at Argonne include liquid density, surface tension, volumetric thermal expansion of the liquid phase, thermal diffusivity, thermal conductivity, and viscosity. Properties of the ternary NaCl-KCl-UCl 3 system that may be used as a fuel bearing salt are being measured. Low-melting eutectic salt compositions are of interest to developers owing to the thermal efficiency. Using salts with low melting temperatures allow reactors to be operated at a lower temperature to improve operation and decrease safety concerns. Confirming low melting behaviors are maintained during composition changes that occur during fission is also an important factor. It is essential to any molten salt reactor developer utilizing a fuel bearing salt to have a complete understanding of the behavior of that fuel salt at a variety of compositions near the eutectic composition they plan to use. This kind of stability is indicated on a phase diagram by low liquidus slopes at compositions bordering the eutectic. Therefore, a thermodynamic model was constructed to determine what compositions of the ternary NaCl, KCl, and UCl 3 system should be studied to support MSR developers.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Substantial oxygen loss and chemical expansion in lithium-rich layered oxides at moderate delithiation

Delithiation of layered oxide electrodes triggers irreversible oxygen loss, one of the primary degradation modes in lithium-ion batteries. However, the delithiation-dependent mechanisms of oxygen loss remain poorly understood. Here we investigate the oxygen non-stoichiometry in Li 1.18–x Ni 0.21 Mn 0.53 Co 0.08 O 2–δ electrodes as a function of Li content by using cycling protocols with long open-circuit voltage steps at varying states of charge. Surprisingly, we observe substantial oxygen loss even at moderate delithiation, corresponding to 2.5, 4.0 and 7.6 ml O 2 per gram of Li 1.18–x Ni 0.21 Mn 0.53 Co 0.08 O 2–δ after resting at upper capacity cut-offs of 135, 200 and 265 mAh g −1 for 100 h. Our observations suggest an intrinsic oxygen instability consistent with predictions of high oxygen activity at intermediate potentials versus Li/Li + . In addition, we observe a large chemical expansion coefficient with respect to oxygen non-stoichiometry, which is about three times greater than those of classical oxygen-deficient materials such as fluorite and perovskite oxides. Furthermore, our work challenges the conventional wisdom that deep delithiation is a necessary condition for oxygen loss in layered oxide electrodes and highlights the importance of calendar ageing for investigating oxygen stability.

Atomistic models↗
DOE OSTI2026

Solar and Storage Integration in the U.S. Southeast: Implications for Resource Adequacy [Slides]

In this study, we evaluate how an iterative portfolio approach compares to a more traditional capacity credit method, using the U.S. Southeast as a case study region. Using open-source planning and resource adequacy tools, we compare results using a capacity credit approximation method with those from iterating behind the two. We also explore how the iterative approach performs under a range of sensitivities, including higher load growth, regional coordination, and alternative weather years. We find that traditional capacity credit approximation methods can function well in today's system, but may face challenges for systems with higher levels of solar and storage. As such, integrating planning and resource adequacy models can address some of these gaps, helping planners deliver more reliable systems.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Impact of Transport Electrification Demand and Charging Schedules on Electricity Markets and Nuclear Generators

As the U.S. pursues deep decarbonization targets, electric vehicles (EVs) are likely to become a major driver of demand growth and a major determinant of daily demand patterns. This study analyzes a possible future ERCOT-like electricity grid, and examines the impact of different types of EV charging schedules on grid and market outcomes. This analysis demonstrates the significant impact of EV charging patterns on capacity expansion simulations. Even without EVs, the overall daily demand profile in a market can have significant impacts on prices and grid stability in that system, especially if non-dispatchable renewable generators (e.g. wind and solar) make up a significant fraction of the generation mix. EV demand will not necessarily follow this preexisting demand profile, so its daily trends may significantly change what generation portfolio would optimally serve the system. Furthermore, the effects of EV demand can alter the profitability of different types of units, by altering the frequency of market events like extreme-demand hours or zero-price hours. These effects are explored in this study. The EV demand levels were derived from MARKAL simulations of the West-South-Central North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) region for the year 2050, using a carbon tax of $100/ton. The baseline MARKAL simulation forecasted that 23% of the region’s annual electricity demand in 2050 would be attributable to EVs, and broke out demand projections for EV and non-EV end-use in that year. To model lower EV penetration into the system, an additional case was explored which assumed that EVs only achieved 75% of the demand level projected by MARKAL.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗