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At least 343 records · Page 19

Modeling Issues in Asteroid-Generated Tsunamis

This report studies tsunamis caused by asteroids, both those that arise from atmospheric blast waves moving across the water surface from airburst asteroids, and those that arise when the asteroid reaches the water and forms a crater. We perform numerical experiments that compare simulations using depth-averaged models (shallow water and several forms of Boussinesq) with linearized Euler (acoustics plus gravity) and ALE hydrocode simulations. We find that neither of the depth-averaged models do a good job of initiating the tsunami, but in some cases can be used to propagate a solution generated by a higher-fidelity method. A list of our conclusions and recommendations for further study is given in Section 5.

Berger, Marsha J.↗

Sensitivity of Impact Risk to Uncertainty in Asteroid Properties and Entry Parameters

A central challenge in evaluating the threat posed by asteroids striking Earth is the large amount of uncertainty in potential asteroid properties and entry parameters, which can vary the resulting ground damage and affected population by orders of magnitude. We are using our Probabilistic Asteroid Impact Risk (PAIR) model to investigate the sensitivity of asteroid impact damage to these uncertainties. To assess the risk sensitivity, we alternately fix or vary the different input parameters and compare the damage distributions produced. In this study, we consider local ground damage from blast waves or thermal radiation for impactors 50-500m in diameter. The ongoing goal of this work is to help guide future efforts in asteroid characterization and model refinement by determining which properties most significantly affect the potential risk.

Wheeler, Lorien↗

Imagery and UV Spectroscopy of the LMC Supernova Remnant N103B Using HST

We present Hubble Space Telescope(HST)/Wide Field Camera 3 multiband imagery of N103B, which is the remnant of a SN Ia in the Large Magellanic Cloud, as well as HST/Cosmic Origins Spectrograph(COS)ultraviolet spectroscopy of the brightest radiatively shocked region. The images show a wide range of morphology and relative emission-line intensities, from smooth Balmer-line dominated collisionless shocks that are due to the primary blast wave to clumpy radiative shock filaments that are due to secondary shocks in density enhancements. The COS data show strong FUV line emissions, despite a moderately high extinction along this line of sight. We use the COS data with previous optical spectra to constrain the shock conditions, we refine the abundance analysis, and we find abundances that are typical of the local interstellar medium within the uncertainties. Under an assumption that the material being shocked was shed from the pre-supernova system, this finding places constraints on any significant enrichment in that material, and thus on the non-degenerate star in what was presumably a single-degenerate SN Ia.

William P. Blair↗

Probabilistic Blast Damage Modeling Uncertainties and Sensitivities

Blast overpressure is the predominant source of ground damage posed by potentially hazardous asteroid strikes. Estimates of the extent, severity, and likelihoods of potential blast damage regions will be one of the key metrics needed to mount civil defense or disaster response plans in the face of an impending impact. However, there are many inherent sources of uncertainty in evaluating the damage, both in characterizing the properties of the incoming object and in the approaches used to model the entry/impact and resulting damage, which make it difficult to produce a single ‘accurate’ or ‘best guess’ prediction of ground damage. The current 2021 PDC hypothetical impact scenario poses a particular challenge due to its short warning time. The need for rapid disaster response to prepare for an immanent impact, combined with lack of observational opportunities to refine basic knowledge about the object’s basic size and properties, make understanding the range and relative likelihood of consequences particularly critical. The potential damage caused by these blasts can be evaluated using a range of modeling and simulation approaches and levels of fidelity. Fast-running engineering-level models can be used to run large numbers of probabilistically sampled cases covering wide variations of uncertain properties or parameters. High-fidelity simulations, on the other hand, can capture more detailed/accurate blast physics, but can only be performed for a small selection of specific cases, requiring many assumptions to be made about the initial object and its unpredictable entry/breakup characteristics. In order to provide a more complete picture of the potential threat for effective disaster response, both types of analysis need to be employed together. In this approach, high-fidelity simulations are used to refine and anchor engineering models, and the probabilistic engineering models are used to evaluate broad parameters spaces and guide selection of the most pertinent simulation cases for a given scenario. This presentation expands upon the probabilistic asteroid impact risk assessments being performed as part of the 2021 PDC hypothetical impact exercise, focusing on key aspects of blast damage modeling uncertainties and sensitivities. We review the current modeling and simulation approaches employed in the current assessment, compare the relative levels of uncertainty stemming from each main element of the problem (i.e., knowledge of the asteroid properties, modeling of the atmospheric entry/breakup and airburst, and estimates of the ground damage from the resulting blasts waves), and highlight any notable trends and sensitivities for the current scenario case.

SMD↗

Advances in Entry Modeling for Impact Risk Assessment

A summary of recent advancements in the detailed modeling of asteroid atmospheric entry processes made through NASA’s Asteroid Threat Assessment Project (ATAP) is presented. Understanding, and accurately modeling these processes and their associated uncertainties is critical to predicting all downstream impact effects, such as blast wave and thermal damage footprints. Furthermore, there is (perhaps thankfully) a dearth of empirical data for large impactors of the kind that would pose a threat to human populations, on which to anchor and/or validate models used in risk assessments. Therefore, we must rely heavily on detailed theoretical and numerical modeling to develop robust assessments for decision makers. To that end, ATAP has made some significant progress in advancing the capabilities in this area. Two areas in particular are highlighted in the present work: meteoroid ablation mechanisms, and bolide luminosity. The first research area – meteoroid ablation mechanisms – has focused on performing novel high-enthalpy wind tunnel experiments on meteorites and meteorite analogs, and utilizing the resulting data to develop high-fidelity models for impactor mass loss at scale. These efforts have resulted in several insights. Of note, these data suggest a differential vaporization process where volatiles are liberated preferentially when the asteroidal material is subject to high heat, while refractory components remain in the molten layer on the surface. A numerical model has been developed which considers this phenomena, and its effect on the bulk impactors effective heat of ablation is examined. The second research thrust that is discussed is focused on accurate modeling of impactor radiation phenomena. While another submission to the conference will discuss the application of our approach to thermal ground damage modeling, here, we present an overview of our extensive efforts to utilize available ground- and space-based observations of large bolides (~1m diameter, and above) to inform and validate our detailed modeling approaches. These methods have been shown to accurately reconstruct the detailed spectra for the Benesov bolide, as well as approximate the burn footprint for the Tunguska event. Recent effort has focused on reconciling light curve data from multiple sources (all-sky camera networks, GLM, US government sensors), using our validated model, and providing a calibrated model for luminous efficiency which can then be utilized to infer impactor properties such as shape, mass, and composition. This work will be demonstrated through an exemplar case study focusing on a large bolide event with observational data (e.g. Chelyabinsk, Flensburg, etc.). Finally, our team’s assessment on the current maturity of atmospheric entry models, and priorities for future research will be provided.

ATAP↗

Mid-Infrared Imaging of Supernova 1987A

At a distance of 50 kpc, Supernova 1987A is an ideal target to study how a young supernova (SN) evolves in time. Its equatorial ring, filled with material expelled from the progenitor star about 20 000 yr ago, has been engulfed with SN blast waves. Shocks heat dust grains in the ring, emitting their energy at mid-infrared (IR) wavelengths We present ground-based 10–18 μm monitoring of the ring of SN 1987A from day 6067 to 12814 at a resolution of 0.5 arcsec, together with SOFIA photometry at 10–30 μm. The IR images in the 2000’s (day 6067–7242) showed that the shocks first began brightening the east side of the ring. Later, our mid-IR images from 2017 to 2022 (day 10952–12714) show that dust emission is now fading in the east, while it has brightened on the west side of the ring. Because dust grains are heated in the shocked plasma, which can emit X-rays, the IR and X-ray brightness ratio represent shock diagnostics. Until 2007 the IR to X-ray brightness ratio remained constant over time, and during this time shocks seemed to be largely influencing the east side of the ring. However, since then, the IR to X-ray ratio has been declining, due to increased X-ray brightness. Whether the declining IR brightness is because of dust grains being destroyed or being cooled in the post-shock regions will require more detailed modelling.

Mikako Matsuura↗

Evacuation and Shelter Plans for Asteroid Impacts

Lessons from Analogs - Hurricanes - Forecasting in time to take action - Large scale evacuations - Risk tolerance - Nuclear Explosions - Effects of large blast waves - Shelters - Fatality rates Application to Asteroid Impacts - PDC 2021: small, little warning, poorly constrained - PDC 2023: large, well characterized

ATAP↗

Advances in Entry Modeling for Impact Risk Assessment

A summary of recent advancements in the detailed modeling of asteroid atmospheric entry processes made through NASA’s Asteroid Threat Assessment Project (ATAP) is presented. Understanding, and accurately modeling these processes and their associated uncertainties is critical to predicting all downstream impact effects, such as blast wave and thermal damage footprints. Furthermore, there is (perhaps thankfully) a dearth of empirical data for large impactors of the kind that would pose a threat to human populations, on which to anchor and/or validate models used in risk assessments. Therefore, we must rely heavily on detailed theoretical and numerical modeling to develop robust assessments for decision makers. To that end, ATAP has made some significant progress in advancing the capabilities in this area. Two areas in particular are highlighted in the present work: meteoroid ablation mechanisms, and bolide luminosity.

ATAP↗

Risk Assessment for Asteroid Impact Threat Scenarios

Asteroid impacts can cause a wide range of damage through multiple potential hazards, from localized blast waves or thermal radiation, to tsunami inundation, to global climatic effects. The level of risk posed by these hazards depends not only upon their extent and severity, but also upon the likelihood of the various damage ranges. Some consequences may be more moderate but very likely, while others may be unlikely but catastrophic. Evaluating the risk from these hazards involves substantial uncertainties across all aspects of the problem, including the properties of the asteroid itself, the specifics of its entry, and the complex high-energy damage physics involved. NASA’s Asteroid Threat Assessment Project performs Probabilistic Asteroid Impact Risk (PAIR) assessments that use fast-running entry and hazard models to evaluate millions of impact cases representing the distributions of these many uncertain parameters. This paper presents current probabilistic asteroid impact risk assessment modeling tools and approaches used for evaluating specific asteroid impact threat cases. We give an overview of the current PAIR model used to support impact threat scenarios and discuss some of the key applications of these assessment in supporting response decisions and planetary defense preparedness. We then present the results and key findings from the recent 2023 PDC hypothetical impact exercise as an example of the primary types of risk results and metrics being developed to inform and support those mitigation and response decisions.

SMD↗

The research into the propagation law of the shock wave of a gas explosion inside a building

Based on the dissipation rate conservation equations of turbulent kinetic energy in the k‐ ε turbulence model, a complicated three‐dimensional finite element model of a kitchen filled with gas mixture is developed by using the open source field operation and manipulation (OpenFOAM). Two representative kitchens were used to investigate the propagation law of the shock wave of a gas explosion inside a building by considering the key characteristics of the blast shock wave. The influence of some crucial parameters, such as initial conditions and kitchen parameters, on the properties of the blast shock wave is investigated. The basic steps to predict the peak pressure of the blast shock wave are given in consideration of the initial condition and the kitchen whilst the injury effect of the blast shock wave on the humans and animals is evaluated. The research results indicate that the pressure time history and the peak pressure space distribution are greatly influenced by the kitchen design layout. The coupled interaction between the initial temperature and gas volume concentration, especially at the upper and lower explosion limits of the gas, significantly affects the peak pressure. The peak pressure varies significantly with the opening and the buffer; however, it has little relation with the width, length, and height of the kitchen. The proposed method can accurately and effectively predict the peak pressure of the blast shock wave inside buildings. In terms of the peak pressure space distribution of the explosion shock wave, the peak pressure is much higher than the threshold of the killing pressure, which is unsafe for the humans and animals in the building.

Lin, Shu-Chao↗

Propulsion system ignition overpressure for the Space Shuttle

Liquid and solid rocket motor propulsion systems create an overpressure wave during ignition, caused by the accelerating gas particles pushing against or displacing the air contained in the launch pad or launch facility and by the afterburning of the fuel-rich gases. This wave behaves as a blast or shock wave characterized by a positive triangular-shaped first pulse and a negative half-sine wave second pulse. The pulse travels up the space vehicle and has the potential of either overloading individual elements or exciting overall vehicle dynamics. The latter effect results from the phasing difference of the wave from one side of the vehicle to the other. This overpressure phasing, or delta P environment, because of its frequency content as well as amplitude, becomes a design driver for certain panels (e.g., thermal shields) and payloads for the Space Shuttle. The history of overpressure effects on the Space Shuttle, the basic overpressure phenomenon, Space Shuttle overpressure environment, scale model overpressure testing, and techniques for suppressing the overpressure environments are considered.

Ryan, R. S.↗

Localizing Clinical Patterns of Blast Traumatic Brain Injury Through Computational Modeling and Simulation

Blast traumatic brain injury is ubiquitous in modern military conflict with significant morbidity and mortality. Yet the mechanism by which blast overpressure waves cause specific intracranial injury in humans remains unclear. Reviewing of both the clinical experience of neurointensivists and neurosurgeons who treated service members exposed to blast have revealed a pattern of injury to cerebral blood vessels, manifested as subarachnoid hemorrhage, pseudoaneurysm, and early diffuse cerebral edema. Additionally, a seminal neuropathologic case series of victims of blast traumatic brain injury (TBI) showed unique astroglial scarring patterns at the following tissue interfaces: subpial glial plate, perivascular, periventricular, and cerebral gray-white interface. The uniting feature of both the clinical and neuropathologic findings in blast TBI is the co-location of injury to material interfaces, be it solid-fluid or solid-solid interface. This motivates the hypothesis that blast TBI is an injury at the intracranial mechanical interfaces. In order to investigate the intracranial interface dynamics, we performed a novel set of computational simulations using a model human head simplified but containing models of gyri, sulci, cerebrospinal fluid (CSF), ventricles, and vasculature with high spatial resolution of the mechanical interfaces. Simulations were performed within a hybrid Eulerian—Lagrangian simulation suite (CTH coupled via Zapotec to Sierra Mechanics). Because of the large computational meshes, simulations required high performance computing resources. Twenty simulations were performed across multiple exposure scenarios—overpressures of 150, 250, and 500 kPa with 1 ms overpressure durations—for multiple blast exposures (front blast, side blast, and wall blast) across large variations in material model parameters (brain shear properties, skull elastic moduli). All simulations predict fluid cavitation within CSF (where intracerebral vasculature reside) with cavitation occurring deep and diffusely into cerebral sulci. These cavitation events are adjacent to high interface strain rates at the subpial glial plate. Larger overpressure simulations (250 and 500kPa) demonstrated intraventricular cavitation—also associated with adjacent high periventricular strain rates. Additionally, models of embedded intraparenchymal vascular structures—with diameters as small as 0.6 mm—predicted intravascular cavitation with adjacent high perivascular strain rates. The co-location of local maxima of strain rates near several of the regions that appear to be preferentially damaged in blast TBI (vascular structures, subpial glial plate, perivascular regions, and periventricular regions) suggest that intracranial interface dynamics may be important in understanding how blast overpressures leads to intracranial injury.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

A comparison of explosively driven shock wave radius versus time scaling approaches

Abstract Explosively driven shock wave radius versus time profiles are frequently used to document energy release and relative explosive performance. Recently, two universal shock wave radius versus time profiles have been presented in the literature, which demonstrate the ability to represent explosively driven shock wave profiles for all explosive sources in any fluid environment. These two universal shock wave profiles are examined here relative to each other and relative to a commonly used nonlinear shock wave profile, which is fit to experimental data for individual explosive materials. The nonlinear profile, originally developed by Dewey, is examined here, and a universal non-dimensional form of the equation is proposed. The universal shock wave profiles are all found to be relatively similar, but with slight variations in a transition region of non-dimensional radii $$0.15\lesssim R^*\lesssim 2$$ 0.15 ≲ R ∗ ≲ 2 . The variations in this region result in different estimations of energy release or blast strength between the curve fits.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Discoveries in Blast-Driven Turbulence of Astrophysical Relevance

The fluid mixing caused by variable-density instabilities is important in a wide variety of scenarios from ocean mixing and astrophysical phenomena to nuclear fusion techniques and atomic weapons. This thesis explores the mixing resulting from a specific instability known as the Blast Driven Instability (BDI). This work investigates the variable density mixing in an explosively driven environment due to the fluid instabilities at the material interfaces. Specifically, diverging Richtmyer-Meshkov (impulsive-acceleration environment) and Rayleigh-Taylor (variable-acceleration environment) instabilities (present in supernova and inertial confinement fusion) are studied using advanced high-speed diagnostics in carefully designed laboratory experiments. The BDI morphology is presented through a time development of Mie scattering images, and steps through the parameter space (varying density ratio and driver speed), highlighting the development of the structures that form during mixing. A scaling criterion is used to relate the two systems of vastly different spatiotemporal scales. Velocity fields in the BDI have been captured for the first time using the high temporal resolution PIV technique. Subsequent analysis of the dynamics of the instability from the velocity fields illustrates the distribution of kinetic energy, the transition to turbulence, and the characteristic growth of the instability are discussed. This study furthers understanding of how blast-driven instability pertains to supernova and inertial confinement fusion science. The morphology of the BDI has been characterized for the first time. This work steps through the parameter space covered in Mie scattering experiments, and how the different parameters contribute to development of structures and mixing. It also examines a scaling of the Atwood number for expanding predictive capabilities to other experimental conditions and simulations. The first collection of velocity fields acquired for the BDI are recorded, and subsequent analysis evaluating the distribution of kinetic energy throughout space and time for two density ratios from the overall parameter space, as well as the transition to turbulence, estimated from a Reynolds number calculated based on momentum mixing are all presented. This information is useful in advancing the development of models to predict physics of high energy density applications where experiments are not always readily available. This research has successfully demonstrated understanding for the time criteria defining regimes where the shock driven (Richtmyer-Meshkov instability) and the buoyancy driven (Rayleigh-Taylor instability) dominates through a parametric study of density variation (Atwood number) and driver speed (Mach number). All this furthers understanding of how the BDI pertains to SN and ICF.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Numerical Stability In Hyperbolic Boundary-Value Problems

Technical memorandum discusses stability of numerical solutions involving semidiscrete approximations to hyperbolic partial differential equations in initial-and-boundary-value problems. Topic of practical significance because hyperbolic partial differential equations arise in mathematical modeling of waves and blasts. Solutions often needed over restricted regions of unbounded spaces. Outer boundaries artificial, introduced only to limit domains of numerical solutions. Conditions at such artificial boundaries cause numerical instabilities that degrade computed solutions.

Warming, Robert F.↗

Comparison of Damage from Hydrocode Simulations of an Asteroid Airburst or Impact on Land, in Deep, or in Shallow Water

If an asteroid is discovered to be on a collision course with Earth and there is insufficient time for a deflection effort to make it miss Earth completely, should it be redirected to a land or ocean impact? While distance from densely populated areas should obviously be maximized, the differing ability of air blast, seismic waves, and tsunami waves to cause damage at distance does not make the choice between land and ocean impacts an immediately obvious one. More broadly this work is a step towards improving damage models from asteroid impacts. This extended abstract follows the hypothetical scenario of the 2017 IAA Planetary Defense Conference where a 100-250m diameter asteroid is on a potential impact course with Earth. A hydrocode was used to simulate impacts into the most sparsely populated areas along the eastern end of the hypothetical impact corridor- specifically in the Gobi Desert, in the shallow waters of the Sea of Japan, and in the deep waters of the Japan Trench in the Pacific Ocean.

Shallow Water↗

Gasdynamics of explosions today.

A brief review is given of blast and detonation wave phenomena and some of their uses in war and peace. It is concluded that great strides have been made over the last three decades toward the physical understanding, the analytical-numerical solution, and the measurement of dynamic and thermodynamic quantities, also taking into consideration severe environments and extremely short durations. Questions of internal ballistics are discussed together with hypervelocity launchers and shock tubes, collapsing cylindrical drivers, spherical implosions, explosive weapons, dynamic response, and equation of state data.

Brode, H. L.↗