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At least 343 records · Page 19

What can the GRACE seasonal cycle tell us about lake-aquifer interactions?

Lake-aquifer interactions have been the subject of investigation and debate for decades. Traditional investigation methods include measurement of water flux across the groundwater-surface water interface, application of heat and environmental tracer methods, conducting numerical simulations of the water flow, and mass balance-based approaches. We first review, evaluate and describe the different approaches that have been applied for examining lake-aquifer interactions and propose an additional complementary approach. While the leakage from lakes and its slow movement through porous media (laminar flow) is well characterized by existing methods, modeling the rapid and turbulent flow through preferred pathways (faults/karst) remains a challenging task. To better understand the nature, and the full scale, of the lake aquifer interactions, and using Lake Nasser and the underlying Dakhla subbasin of the Nubian Sandstone Aquifer System (NSAS) in the Western Desert of Egypt (area: 0.66 x 10 6 km 2 ) as a test site, we examine, model, and correlate temporally and spatially, the variations in Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment terrestrial water storage (GRACE TWS ) solutions, with precipitation, lake levels, area, and water volume. We review current GRACE applications in hydrology and present our novel approach. Findings include: firstly, large seasonal fluctuations (peak: Nov./Dec.; trough: July/Aug.) in Lake Nasser's surface water levels (average annual fluctuations: from 3.7 m to 7.5 m), area (average area: 3622 km 2 but up to 4530 km 2 ), and volume (annual average: 13.4 km 3 , and up to 34 km 3 ) are observed throughout years 2006 to 2015. These fluctuations are accompanied by an increase in GRACE TWS (average: 50 ± 13 mm/yr, up to 77 ± 18 mm/yr) over Lake Nasser and by a progression of a front of increasing GRACE TWS values (> 50 ± 13 mm) away from the lake reaching distances of up to 700 km some 3 to 5 months following peak lake level periods. The areas witnessing the seasonal increase in GRACE TWS display a progressive increase in phase and decrease in amplitude with distance from the lake. Secondly, the negligible precipitation over the Dakhla subbasin cannot account for the observed seasonal GRACE TWS patterns and neither can the leakage signal from Lake Nasser. Thirdly, overall similarities in the distribution of GRACE TWS seasonal spatial patterns are observed. During high lake level periods (e.g., Dec. 2007; Feb. 2015) additional, and more distant, areas from Lake Nasser saw increases in GRACE TWS and vice versa during low lake level periods (e.g., July 2006; Aug. 2010). These observations are consistent with Lake Nasser being the main source of modern recharge for the Dakhla subbasin and suggest a new conceptual model for the subbasin: a slow groundwater flow through a porous matrix and a rapid groundwater flow along a network of faults, fractures, and karst topography across the matrix. We suggest that the proposed conceptual model for the interaction between Lake Nasser and the Dakhla subbasin could be applicable to aquifers of similar geologic, climatic, and hydrologic settings worldwide and that approaches similar to those advocated here could be used to investigate the validity of this suggestion.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Air compressor load forecasting using artificial neural network

Air compressor systems are responsible for approximately 10% of the electricity consumed in United States and European Union industry. As many researches have proven the effectiveness of using Artificial Neural Network inair compressor performance prediction, there is still a need to forecast the air compressor electrical load profile. The objective of this study is to predict compressed air systems’ electrical load profile, which is valuable to industry practitioners as well as software providers in developing better practice and tools for load managementand look-ahead scheduling programs. Two artificial neural networks, Two-Layer Feed-Forward Neural Networkand Long Short-Term Memory were used to predict an air compressors electrical load. Compressors with three different control mechanisms are evaluated with a total number of 11,874 observations. Here, the forecasts were validated using out-of-sample datasets with 5-fold cross-validation. Models produced average coefficient ofdetermination values from 0.24 to 0.94, average root-mean-square errors from 0.05 kW - 5.83 kW, and meanabsolute scaled errors from 0.20 to 1.33. The results indicate that both artificial neural networks yield goodresults for compressors using variable speed drive (average R 2 = 0.8 and no naïve forecasting), only the longshort-term memory model gives acceptable results for compressors using on/off control (average R 2 = 0.82 and no naïve forecasting), and no satisfactory results are obtained for load/unload type air compressors (models constituting active forecasting).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Detecting technological maturity from bibliometric patterns

We report the capability to identify emergent technologies based upon easily accessed open-source indicators, such as publications, is important for decision-makers in industry and government. The scientific contribution of this work is the proposition of a machine learning approach to the detection of the maturity of emerging technologies based on publication counts. Time-series of publication counts have universal features that distinguish emerging and growing technologies. We train an artificial neural network classifier, a supervised machine learning algorithm, upon these features to predict the maturity (emergent vs. growth) of an arbitrary technology. With a training set comprised of 22 technologies we obtain a classification accuracy ranging from 58.3% to 100% with an average accuracy of 84.6% for six test technologies. To enhance classifier performance, we augmented the training corpus with synthetic time-series technology life cycle curves, formed by calculating weighted averages of curves in the original training set. Training the classifier on the synthetic data set resulted in improved accuracy, ranging from 83.3% to 100% with an average accuracy of 90.4% for the test technologies. The performance of our classifier exceeds that of competing machine learning approaches in the literature, which report an average classification accuracy of only 85.7% at maximum. Moreover, in contrast to current methods our approach does not require subject matter expertise to generate training labels, and it can be automated and scaled.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Temporal relationships among lunar crustal rocks

Temporal relationships among the three most common suites of lunar crustal rocks have been investigated by obtaining new high precision ages on Felsic/Alkali-suite Quartz monzodiorite Clast B from breccia 15405 and Magnesian-suite norite 78235/6/8/55/56 and comparing them to previously dated ferroan anorthosite sample 60025. The weighted average age of 4337.19 ± 0.49 Ma of 15405 Clast B is defined by zircon U-Pb and Pb-Pb ages as well as mineral isochron Sm-Nd and Nd-Nd ages. It is identical to the weighted average age for Apollo 17 norite 78235/6/8/55/56 of 4334.1 ± 3.5 Ma which is defined by Pb-Pb ages measured on baddeleyites in this investigation and less precise Pb-Pb and Sm-Nd ages reported in the literature. Both ages are ∼ 25 Ma younger than the weighted average of Sm-Nd and Pb-Pb ages reported in the literature on ferroan anorthosite 60025 of 4359.3 ± 2.3 Ma. The fact that ages of all three samples are defined by multiple U-Pb, Pb-Pb, Sm-Nd, and 142 Nd- 143 Nd chronometers provide confidence that they record the igneous crystallization history of the samples and do not represent disturbances or mixing lines with no temporal significance. Here, the extent to which these three ages represent broader scale magmatism is difficult to evaluate. Nevertheless, the age defined for 15405 Clast B, 78235/6/8/55/56, and 60025 are contemporaneous with the peak of ages observed in detrital zircons from the Apollo 12, 14, 15, and 17 landing sites (4340 ± 20 Ma), a Mg-suite Sm-Nd whole rock isochron defined by samples from Apollo 14, 15, 16, and 17 landing sites (4348 ± 25 Ma), and a Ferroan Anorthosite-suite Sm-Nd whole rock isochron defined by samples from the Apollo 15 and 16 landing sites (4354 ± 29 Ma). This implies that Ferroan Anorthosite-suite magmatism is temporally distinct and earlier than magmatism associated with the Mg-suite and the Felsic/Alkali-suite, as predicted by the lunar magma ocean model of lunar differentiation. The short 35 ± 10 Ma interval between primary ferroan anorthosite magmatism and secondary magmatism suggests that the lunar crust formed over a limited period of time. Although heat from decay of long-lived isotopes, large impacts, tidal heating associated with interactions between the Earth and Moon, and density driven overturn of the magma ocean have all been invoked to explain production of ancient secondary crustal magmatism, only tidal heating and cumulate overturn are consistent with the apparent short duration of secondary crustal magmatism and the great depth of crystallization implied for some Mg-suite samples. The initial ε 143 Nd values derived from the 15405 Clast B and 78238 Mg-suite norite isochrons, as well as a Mg-suite whole rock isochron are −0.23 ± 0.11, −0.27 ± 0.74, and −0.25 ± 0.09, respectively. They are identical within uncertainty indicating that Mg-suite and Felsic/Alkali-suite magmas were derived from materials that had the same time averaged Sm/Nd ratios since the formation of the solar system. This, combined with the contemporaneous nature of 15405 Clast B and 78235/6/8/55/56 Mg-suite norite, is consistent with evolution of both samples, and likely both magma suites, from a common source through closed system fractional crystallization or partial melting processes.

Chronology↗

Experimental investigation of the small-scale prototype of the dew point water recovery system

The article presents experimental investigation of the Dew Point Water Recovery (DPWR) system designed for clean water recovery using the dew point cooling phenomenon. The technology is a novel distillation process which allows for highly efficient water recovery. It is a first distillation technology which allows for water distillation through direct contact with atmospheric air. The authors designed, built, and tested an original prototype of a laboratory-scale DPWR system to verify its basic operating principles and perform performance analysis. It was shown that on average 10 × 10 −6 m 3 of clean water could be recovered from each cubic meter of the supply air with an average GOR of 1.9. Although the operation of the DPWR system requires electricity to drive fans, pumps and other associated equipment, the actual driving force of the system is thermal energy. The average thermal energy demand of the DPWR system was 370 kWh/m 3 , and more than half of this energy was based on the thermodynamic potential of the supply air. Based on experimental data, the mathematical model of the DPWR system was verified and it was found that the average relative discrepancy in predicting air temperature did not exceed 8%, and in predicting air humidity: 5%. In conclusion, the conducted experiments confirmed that the proposed DPWR system is feasible and has the potential to fill the technological gap in terms of a low-energy and easily accessible water recovery method.

42 ENGINEERING↗

In-situ determination of strain during transient burst testing and the temperature dependence of Zircaloy-4 claddings

Understanding fuel system behavior during postulated loss-of-coolant accidents is pertinent for continued safe and efficient operation of light water reactors, particularly as higher burnups are being pursued and safety margins re-evaluated. Conventional mechanical models for the incumbent Zr alloys typically rely on the assumption that steady-state creep is the dominant fuel cladding response during transient accident conditions. To investigate this assumption, simulated accident burst testing was performed on Zircaloy-4 claddings with balloon behavior measured in-situ. Here, two distinct loading conditions were utilized during burst testing: (1) constant-gas-inventory where pressure was allowed to increase with temperature and (2) constant pressure. In-situ strains and strain rates were measured via 2-dimensional digital image correlation techniques and synchronized with temperature to determine deformation dependencies. The temperature dependence of strain rate was characterized by a two segment Arrhenius relationship, with a distinct transition between the high and low temperature/strain regimes. The average activation energy of the lower temperature/strain regime was 328 ± 25 kJ/mol, in agreement with the ~320 kJ/mol used for conventional LOCA models. However, the higher temperature/strain segment, which encompassed most of ballooning, showed increased activation energies as well as a dependence on whether the burst region was in view. For tests that burst away from the camera view, the average high temperature/strain segment activation energy was 635 ± 150 kJ/mol. For samples where the rupture opening formed in view, the average activation energy was 1015 ± 179 kJ/mol. This observed shift in temperature dependence indicates a transition in deformation mechanism at the end of life, possibly to time independent failure mechanisms, which has not yet been visualized in the literature for Zr alloys. Parameters at the transition points were analyzed to determine thresholds for this change in behavior, which occurred at an average hoop strain of 6.9 ± 2.1 %.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Injection data analysis using material balance time for CO 2 storage capacity estimation in deep closed saline aquifers

Estimating the ultimate storage capacity of deep saline aquifers is important to address the formation potential to store the envisioned large volumes of CO 2 . Injection data (i.e. injection rate, bottomhole pressure, and cumulative injected volume of CO 2 ) are routinely recorded during storage operations. These data contain valuable information on the subsurface (e.g. the reservoir pore volume and the formation storage capacity) that can be extracted. In this paper, we present a two-step graphical technique to infer the pore volume and the ultimate storage capacity of closed saline aquifers by analyzing the available injection data. First, the pore volume is inferred through adapting the concept of the material balance time. Material balance time is an approximate superposition time function developed to interpret production data from oil and gas wells operating at variable pressure/rate conditions during the boundary-dominated flow period. Using material balance techniques, the ultimate storage capacity is then estimated through linear extrapolation of the average pressure trend to the maximum allowable pressure the formation can withstand. The average pressure is not available in practice, but is can be obtained from the injection data. Two approaches are presented in this study to calculate the average pressure; namely the rigorous and the approximate approaches. Unlike the rigorous approach, the approximate approach does not require a prior knowledge of some reservoir properties (e.g. relative permeability, absolute permeability, formation porosity and thickness) to calculate the average pressure. To investigate its potential and reliability in analyzing CO 2 injection data, the proposed technique is applied to four synthetic cases representing different well operating conditions. Results indicate that the approximate approach consistently overestimates the actual (simulated) storage capacity as compared to the rigorous approach. The agreement - between the inferred and the simulated reservoir pore volume, and between the analytical and numerical estimates of storage capacity - validates the potential application of the technique to CO 2 storage in closed saline aquifers. The technique is further substantiated through application to a field data set utilized from a commercial-scale geological storage (CGS) project. Finally, field data interpretation shows that the proposed technique can be utilized to identify the degree of hydraulic continuity and reservoir compartmentalization within a target formation by interpreting the corresponding pressure and rate responses.

02 PETROLEUM↗

A physical method for downscaling land surface temperatures using surface energy balance theory

Fine-resolution land surface temperature (LST) derived from thermal infrared remote sensing images is a good indicator of surface water status and plays an essential role in the exchange of energy and water between land and atmosphere. A physical surface energy balance (SEB)-based LST downscaling method (DTsEB) is developed to downscale coarse remotely sensed thermal infrared LST products with fine-resolution visible and near-infrared data. Here, the DTsEB method is advantageous for its ability to mechanically interrelate surface variables contributing to the spatial variation of LST, to quantitatively weigh the contributions of each related variable within a physical framework, and to efficaciously avoid the subjective selection of scaling factors and the establishment of statistical regression relationships. The applicability of the DTsEB method was tested by downscaling 12 scenes of 990 m Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and aggregated Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) LST products to 90 m resolution at six overpass times between 2005 and 2015 over three 9.9 km by 9.9 km cropland (mixed by grass, tree, and built-up land) study areas. Three typical LST downscaling methods, namely the widely applied TsHARP, the later developed least median square regression downscaling (LMS) and the geographically weighted regression (GWR), were introduced for intercomparison. The results showed that the DTsEB method could more effectively reconstruct the subpixel spatial variations in LST within the coarse-resolution pixels and achieve a better downscaling accuracy than the TsHARP, LMS and GWR methods. The DTsEB method yielded, on average, root mean square errors (RMSEs) of 2.01 K and 1.42 K when applied to the MODIS datasets and aggregated ASTER datasets, respectively, which were lower than those obtained with the TsHARP method, with average RMSEs of 2.41 K and 1.71 K, the LMS method, with average RMSEs of 2.35 K and 1.63 K, and the GWR method, with average RMSEs of 2.38 K and 1.64 K, respectively. The contributions of the related surface variables to the subpixel spatial variation in the LST varied both spatially and temporally and were different from each other. In summary, the DTsEB method was demonstrated to outperform the TsHARP, LMS, and GWR methods and could be used as a good alternative for downscaling LST products from coarse to fine resolution with high robustness and accuracy.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Synergies between repositioning and charging strategies for shared autonomous electric vehicle fleets

The emergence of on-demand shared autonomous electric vehicle (SAEV) service requires careful charging station planning and a joint charging and repositioning strategy to mitigate empty travel. This study couples charging and repositioning events as a means of improving service quality (rider wait times), reducing empty travel due to repositioning or charging, and improving fleet utilization (average daily trips per vehicle and charging queues). This synergy is explored for the Austin, Texas region using POLARIS, an agent-based model. On average, wait times were 39% lower, and average daily trips served per SAEV increased up to 6.4 (or 28%) compared to SAEV repositioning with heuristic charging. Coupling repositioning with charging decreased the fleet's percent empty travel on average by 1.6%, relative to the scenario treating them as independent events (which varies by charging station design). Sparser charging stations reduce investment costs, and operators can leverage this framework to keep traveler wait times low.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Application of multi-method-multi-model inference to radiation related solid cancer excess risks models for astronaut risk assessment

The impact of including model-averaged excess radiation risks (ER) into a measure of radiation attributed decrease of survival (RADS) for the outcome all solid cancer incidence and the impact on the uncertainties is demonstrated. It is shown that RADS applying weighted model averaged ER based on AIC weights result in smaller risk estimates with narrower 95% CI than RADS using ER based on BIC weights. Further a multi-method-multi-model inference approach is introduced that allows calculating one general RADS estimate providing a weighted average risk estimate for a lunar and a Mars mission. For males the general RADS estimate is found to be 0.42% (95% CI: 0.38%; 0.45%) and for females 0.67% (95% CI: 0.59%; 0.75%) for a lunar mission and 2.45% (95% CI: 2.23%; 2.67%) for males and 3.91% (95% CI: 3.44%; 4.39%) for females for a Mars mission considering an age at exposure of 40 years and an attained age of 65 years. It is recommended to include these types of uncertainties and to include model-averaged excess risks in astronaut risk assessment.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Rye-soybean double-crop: planting method and N fertilization effects in the North Central US

Double-cropping winter rye cover crops (CC) with soybean in the North Central US could help with the global effort to sustainably intensify agriculture. Studies addressing the management of these systems are limited. Therefore, a field study was conducted from 2017 to 2019 in Central Iowa, US to evaluate winter rye CC biomass production, aboveground N accumulation, estimated economics, estimated within-field energy balance and estimated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions under three N application rates (0, 60, 120 kg N ha –1 ) and three planting methods (pre- and post-harvest broadcast and post-harvest drilling). Averaged over N rates, all planting methods resulted in >5.0 Mg ha –1 year –1 rye aboveground biomass dry matter. Averaged over the 2-year study and compared with unfertilized treatments, applying 60 kg N ha –1 produced 1.1 Mg ha –1 more aboveground biomass (6.1 vs 5.0 Mg ha –1 ), accumulated 30 kg ha –1 more N in aboveground biomass (88 vs 58 kg N ha –1 ), and led to 20 GJ ha –1 more net energy. Biomass production was not significantly higher with 120 kg N ha –1 compared with the 60 kg N ha –1 rate. Even when accounting for an estimated 0.75 Mg ha –1 of above ground rye biomass left in the field after harvesting, more N was removed than applied at the 60 kg N ha –1 rate. The minimum rye prices over the 2-year study needed for double-cropping winter rye CC to be profitable (breakeven prices) averaged $117 and $104 Mg –1 for the 0 and 60 kg N ha –1 rates, which factors in estimated soybean yield reductions in 2019 compared with local averages but not off-site transportation. GHG emissions were estimated to increase approximately threefold between the unfertilized and 60 kg N ha –1 rates without considering bioenergy offsets. While environmental tradeoffs need further study, results suggest harvesting fertilized rye CC biomass before planting soybean is a promising practice for the North Central US to maximize total crop and net energy production.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Reducing Surface Recombination Velocity of Methylammonium-Free Mixed-Cation Mixed-Halide Perovskites via Surface Passivation

We control surface recombination in the mixed-cation, mixed-halide perovskite, FA0.83Cs0.17Pb(I0.85Br0.15)3, by passivating nonradiative defects with the polymerizable Lewis base (3-aminopropyl)trimethoxysilane (APTMS). We demonstrate average minority carrier lifetimes >4 µs, nearly single exponential monomolecular photoluminescence decays, and high external photoluminescence quantum efficiencies (>20%, corresponding to ~97% of the maximum theoretical quasi-Fermi-level splitting) at low excitation fluence. We confirm both the composition and valence band edge position of the FA0.83Cs0.17Pb(I0.85Br0.15)3 perovskite using multi-institutional, cross-validated, X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy and UV photoelectron spectroscopy measurements. We extend the APTMS surface passivation to higher bandgap double-cation (FA and Cs) compositions (1.7, 1.75, and 1.8 eV) as well as the widely used triple-cation (FA, MA, and Cs) composition. Finally, we demonstrate that the average surface recombination velocity decreases from ~1000 to ~10 cm/s post APTMS passivation for FA0.83Cs0.17Pb(I0.85Br0.15)3. Our results demonstrate that surface-mediated recombination is the primary nonradiative loss pathway in many methylammonium (MA)-free mixed-cation mixed-halide films with a range of different bandgaps, which is a problem observed for a wide range of perovskite active layers and reactive electrical contacts. Our study also provides insights to develop passivating molecules that help reduce surface recombination in MA-free mixed-cation mixed-halide films and indicates that surface passivation and contact engineering will enable near-theoretical device efficiencies with these materials.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Main and Satellite Features in the Ni 2p XPS of NiO

The origin and assignment of the complex main and satellite XPS features of the cations in ionic compounds has been the subject of extensive theoretical studies using different methods. There is agreement that within a molecular orbital model one needs to take into account different types of configurations. Specifically, those where a core electron is removed but no other configuration changes are made and those where in addition to ionization there are also shake or charge transfer changes to the ionic configuration. However, there are strong disagreements about the assignment of XPS features to these configurations. The present work is directed toward resolving the origin of main and satellite features for the Ni 2p XPS of NiO based on ab initio molecular orbital wavefunctions for a cluster model of NiO. A major problem in earlier ab initio XPS studies of ionic compounds has been the use of a common set of orbitals that was not able to properly describe all the ionic configurations that contribute to the full XPS spectra. This is resolved in the present work by using orbitals that are optimized for averages of the occupations of the different configurations that contribute to the XPS. The approach of using State Averaged orbitals is validated through comparisons between different averages and through use of higher order excitations in the wavefunctions for the ionic states. It represents a major extension of our earlier work on the main and satellite features of the Fe 2p XPS of Fe 2 O 3 and proves the reliability and the generality of the assignments of the character and origin of the different features of the XPS obtained with orbitals optimized for State Averages. These molecular orbital methods permit the characterization of the ionic states in terms of the importance of shake excitations and of the coupling of ionization of 2p 1/2 and 2p 3/2 spin-orbit split sub shells. Further, the work lays the foundation for definitive assignments of the character of main and satellite XPS features and points to their origin in the electronic structure of the material.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Ligand-Binding-Site Refinement to Generate Reliable Holo Protein Structure Conformations from Apo Structures

The first important step in a structure-based virtual screening is the judicious selection of a receptor protein. In cases where the holo protein receptor structure is unavailable, significant reduction in virtual screening performance has been reported. In this work, we present a robust method to generate reliable holo protein structure conformations from apo structures using molecular dynamics (MD) simulation with restraints derived from holo structure binding-site templates. We perform benchmark tests on two different datasets: 40 structures from a directory of useful decoy-enhanced (DUD-E) and 84 structures from the Gunasekaran dataset. Our results show successful refinement of apo binding-site structures toward holo conformations in 82% of the test cases. In addition, virtual screening performance of 40 DUD-E structures is significantly improved using our MD-refined structures as receptors with an average enrichment factor (EF), an EF1% value of 6.2 compared to apo structures with 3.5. Docking of native ligands to the refined structures shows an average ligand root mean square deviation (RMSD) of 1.97 Å (DUD-E dataset and Gunasekaran dataset) relative to ligands in the holo crystal structures, which is comparable to the self-docking (i.e., docking of the native ligand back to its crystal structure receptor) average, 1.34 Å (DUD-E dataset) and 1.36 Å (Gunasekaran dataset). On the other hand, docking to the apo structures yields an average ligand RMSD of 3.65 Å (DUD-E) and 2.90 Å (Gunasekaran). These results indicate that our method is robust and can be useful to improve virtual screening performance of apo structures.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Nearby Sites Show Similar Upwind Sources and Differing Semivolatile Concentrations in Coastal Aerosol Particles

The Eastern Pacific Cloud Aerosol Precipitation Experiment (EPCAPE) characterized aerosol composition using measurements at two sites within 3 km (Scripps Pier and Mt. Soledad) from 15 February 2023 to 14 February 2024. Comparing the two sites shows the strong influence of upwind sources that results in similar monthly compositions at both sites. The seasonal changes in chemical mass concentrations were largely driven by the upwind source regions, with coastal northwesterly back-trajectories occurring 63−65% of the year and bringing submicrometer mass concentrations that were lower than the EPCAPE average for all trajectories at each site. In contrast, refractory black carbon (rBC) and nonrefractory (NR)-organics and nitrate mass concentrations exceeded EPCAPE average concentrations for back-trajectories from urban areas such as Los Angeles-Long Beach. For hourly measurements, NR-organics and non-sea-salt (NSS)-sulfate mass concentrations at Mt. Soledad were correlated strongly (r = 0.73−0.82) to those measured at Scripps Pier, but NR-nitrate was correlated only moderately (r = 0.63). The explanation for the lower correlation of NR-nitrate is both emissions between the sites and semivolatility, with semivolatility accounting for site-to-site changes in daily averages of +0.01 μg m −3 per percentage site-to-site difference in relative humidity and −0.07 μg m −3 per degree Celsius site-to-site difference in temperature. On average, comparing Scripps Pier to Mt. Soledad, NR-nitrate was higher by 29% because of relative humidity and lower by −26% because of temperature. NR-nitrate and rBC mass concentrations at Scripps Pier for nighttime were 13−15% higher than those for daytime because land breezes brought higher inland concentrations. Concentrations of rBC were 52% higher at Mt. Soledad than those measured at Scripps Pier, accompanied by increases in tracers for brake wear because of traffic on the steep roads within 10 m of that site. The implications are that these nearby sites had comparable monthly concentrations of measured components due to their similar backtrajectories, but hourly and daily concentration differences supported quantification of the meteorological effects from relative humidity and temperature on semivolatile NR-nitrate as well as minor differences from land−sea breezes and local emissions.

Aerosols↗

Regional-Scale Modeling Parameterizations for Secondary Organic Aerosol Formation from Isoprene Epoxydiols: Experimentally Based Evaluation and Optimization

Isoprene is an abundant volatile organic compound emitted from broadleaf forests. Under low nitric oxide concentrations, isoprene is photochemically oxidized to form gas-phase isoprene epoxydiols (IEPOX). In the presence of acidified sulfate aerosols, IEPOX enhances the secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formation. Predictions of IEPOX-SOA in regional-scale models, e.g., the Community Multiscale Air Quality Model (CMAQ), are uncertain due to homogeneous aerosol assumptions, underpredictions of water uptake (hygroscopicity), and aerosol surface area. Here, we used experimental measurements of IEPOX-SOA tracers, 2-methyltetrols (2-MT) and 2-methyltetrol sulfates (2-MTS), formed at initial IEPOX-to-inorganic sulfate ratios ranging from 1–10.5, at ∼50% relative humidity to constrain key IEPOX-SOA parameters: phase separation, organic shell diffusivity (D org ), acidity, hygroscopic growth, mass accommodation, and kinetics. The base CMAQ parametrization overpredicted experimental IEPOX-SOA with an average normalized mean bias (NMB average ) of 1.63. CMAQ with phase separation underpredicted IEPOX-SOA (NMB average = −0.71). Using the phase-separated model, CMAQ model performance was optimized (NMB average = 0.077) with an increased D org = 2 × 10 –16 m 2 s –1 and increased rate constants (k 2-MT = 1 × 10 –3 M 2 s –1 , k 2-MTS = 8.83 × 10 –3 M 2 s –1 ). The optimized model explicitly accounted for hygroscopic growth by utilizing experimentally derived growth rates, improving aerosol surface area predictions. Our model highlights the importance of the aerosol mixing state (homogeneous versus phase-separated), aerosol size dynamics, and hygroscopic growth in modeling heterogeneous reactive uptake of IEPOX.

aerosols↗

Development and Evaluation of Chemistry‐Aerosol‐Climate Model CAM5‐Chem‐MAM7‐MOSAIC: Global Atmospheric Distribution and Radiative Effects of Nitrate Aerosol

Abstract An advanced aerosol treatment, with a focus on semivolatile nitrate formation, is introduced into the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 with interactive chemistry (CAM5‐chem) by coupling the Model for Simulating Aerosol Interactions and Chemistry (MOSAIC) with the 7‐mode Modal Aerosol Module (MAM7). An important feature of MOSAIC is dynamic partitioning of all condensable gases to the different fine and coarse mode aerosols, as governed by mode‐resolved thermodynamics and heterogeneous chemical reactions. Applied in the free‐running mode from 1995 to 2005 with prescribed historical climatological conditions, the model simulates global distributions of sulfate, nitrate, and ammonium in good agreement with observations and previous studies. Inclusion of nitrate resulted in ∼10% higher global average accumulation mode number concentrations, indicating enhanced growth of Aitken mode aerosols from nitrate formation. While the simulated accumulation mode nitrate burdens are high over the anthropogenic source regions, the sea‐salt and dust modes respectively constitute about 74% and 17% of the annual global average nitrate burden. Regional clear‐sky shortwave radiative cooling of up to −5 W m −2 due to nitrate is seen, with a much smaller global average cooling of −0.05 W m −2 . Significant enhancements in regional cloud condensation nuclei (at 0.1% supersaturation) and cloud droplet number concentrations are also attributed to nitrate, causing an additional global average shortwave cooling of −0.8 W m −2 . Taking into consideration of changes in both longwave and shortwave radiation under all‐sky conditions, the net change in the top of the atmosphere radiative fluxes induced by including nitrate aerosol is −0.7 W m −2 .

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Urban Versus Lake Impacts on Heat Stress and Its Disparities in a Shoreline City

Abstract Shoreline cities are influenced by both urban‐scale processes and land‐water interactions, with consequences on heat exposure and its disparities. Heat exposure studies over these cities have focused on air and skin temperature, even though moisture advection from water bodies can also modulate heat stress. Here, using an ensemble of model simulations covering Chicago, we find that Lake Michigan strongly reduces heat exposure (2.75°C reduction in maximum average air temperature in Chicago) and heat stress (maximum average wet bulb globe temperature reduced by 0.86°C) during the day, while urbanization enhances them at night (2.75 and 1.57°C increases in minimum average air and wet bulb globe temperature, respectively). We also demonstrate that urban and lake impacts on temperature (particularly skin temperature), including their extremes, and lake‐to‐land gradients, are stronger than the corresponding impacts on heat stress, partly due to humidity‐related feedback. Likewise, environmental disparities across community areas in Chicago seen for skin temperature are much higher (1.29°C increase for maximum average values per $10,000 higher median income per capita) than disparities in air temperature (0.50°C increase) and wet bulb globe temperature (0.23°C increase). The results call for consistent use of physiologically relevant heat exposure metrics to accurately capture the public health implications of urbanization.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗