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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 343 records · Page 19
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Coupling Mesoscale Budget Components to Large-Eddy Simulations for Wind-Energy Applications

To simulate the airflow through a wind farm across a wide range of atmospheric conditions, microscale models (e.g., large-eddy simulation, LES, models) have to be coupled with mesoscale models, because microscale models lack the atmospheric physical processes to represent time-varying local forcing. Here we couple mesoscale model outputs to a LES solver by applying mesoscale momentum- and temperature-budget components from the Weather Research and Forecasting model to the governing equations of the Simulator fOr Wind Farm Applications model. We test whether averaging the budget components affects the LES results with regard to quantities of interest to wind energy. Our study focuses on flat terrain during a quiescent diurnal cycle. The simulation results are compared with observations from a 200-m tall meteorological tower and a wind-profiling radar, by analyzing time series, profiles, rotor-averaged quantities, and spectra. However, while results show that averaging reduces the spatio-temporal variability of the mesoscale momentum-budget components, when coupled with the LES model, the mesoscale bias (in comparison with observations of wind speed and direction, and potential temperature) is not reduced. In contrast, the LES technique can correct for shear and veer. In both cases, however, averaging the budget components shows no significant impact on the mean flow quantities in the microscale and is not necessary when coupling mesocale budget components to the LES model.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Validation of seismic velocity models in southern California with full-waveform simulations

SUMMARY Crustal seismic velocity models provide essential information for many applications including earthquake source properties, simulations of ground motion and related derivative products. We present a systematic workflow for assessing the accuracy of velocity models with full-waveform simulations. The framework is applied to four regional seismic velocity models for southern California: CVM-H15.11, CVM-S4.26, CVM-S4.26.M01 that includes a shallow geotechnical layer, and the model of Berg et al. For each model, we perform 3-D viscoelastic wave propagation simulations for 48 virtual seismic noise sources (down to 2 s) and 44 moderate-magnitude earthquakes (down to 2 s generally and 0.5 s for some cases) assuming a minimum shear wave velocity of 200 m s–1. The synthetic waveforms are compared with observations associated with both earthquake records and noise cross-correlation data sets. We measure, at multiple period bands for well-isolated seismic phases, traveltime delays and normalized zero-lag cross-correlation coefficients between the synthetic and observed data. The obtained measurements are summarized using the mean absolute derivation of time delay and the mean correlation coefficient. These two metrics provide reliable statistical representations of model quality with consistent results in all data sets. In addition to assessing the overall (average) performance of different models in the entire study area, we examine spatial variations of the models’ quality. All examined models show good phase and waveform agreements for surface waves at periods longer than 5 s, and discrepancies at shorter periods reflecting small-scale heterogeneities and near-surface structures. The model performing best overall is CVM-S4.26.M01. The largest misfits for both body and surface waves are in basin structures and around large fault zones. Inaccuracies generated in these areas may affect tomography and model simulation results at other regions. The seismic velocity models for southern California can be improved by adding better resolved structural representations of the shallow crust and volumes around the main faults.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Characterization of organic aerosol across the global remote troposphere: a comparison of ATom measurements and global chemistry models

The spatial distribution and properties of submicron organic aerosol (OA) are among the key sources of uncertainty in our understanding of aerosol effects on climate. Uncertainties are particularly large over remote regions of the free troposphere and Southern Ocean, where very few data have been available and where OA predictions from AeroCom Phase II global models span 2 to 3 orders of magnitude, greatly exceeding the model spread over source regions. The (nearly) pole-to-pole vertical distribution of non-refractory aerosols was measured with an aerosol mass spectrometer onboard the NASA DC-8 aircraft as part of the Atmospheric Tomography (ATom) mission during the Northern Hemisphere summer (August 2016) and winter (February 2017). This study presents the first extensive characterization of OA mass concentrations and their level of oxidation in the remote atmosphere. OA and sulfate are the major contributors by mass to submicron aerosols in the remote troposphere, together with sea salt in the marine boundary layer. Sulfate was dominant in the lower stratosphere. OA concentrations have a strong seasonal and zonal variability, with the highest levels measured in the lower troposphere in the summer and over the regions influenced by biomass burning from Africa (up to 10 µg sm -3 ). Lower concentrations (~0.1–0.3 µg sm -3 ) are observed in the northern middle and high latitudes and very low concentrations (<0.1 µg sm -3 ) in the southern middle and high latitudes. The ATom dataset is used to evaluate predictions of eight current global chemistry models that implement a variety of commonly used representations of OA sources and chemistry, as well as of the AeroCom-II ensemble. The current model ensemble captures the average vertical and spatial distribution of measured OA concentrations, and the spread of the individual models remains within a factor of 5. These results are significantly improved over the AeroCom-II model ensemble, which shows large overestimations over these regions. However, some of the improved agreement with observations occurs for the wrong reasons, as models have the tendency to greatly overestimate the primary OA fraction and underestimate the secondary fraction. Measured OA in the remote free troposphere is highly oxygenated, with organic aerosol to organic carbon (OA/OC) ratios of ~2.2–2.8, and is 30 %–60 % more oxygenated than in current models, which can lead to significant errors in OA concentrations. The model–measurement comparisons presented here support the concept of a more dynamic OA system as proposed by Hodzic et al. (2016), with enhanced removal of primary OA and a stronger production of secondary OA in global models needed to provide better agreement with observations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

A deep learning model for automatic analysis of cavities in irradiated materials

Transmission electron microscopy (TEM) is a commonly used technique in materials science for defect investigation. Quantitative analysis of defects is important for understanding the properties of a material, but manual analysis of TEM micrographs can be time-consuming and prone to error, especially when the defects have irregular shapes rather than spherical shapes. Many existing methods or deep learning models do not handle a wide range of sizes for the same object type within a single image. In this work, we present a framework that enables users to train an instance segmentation model called Mask R- CNN on any microstructure dataset, perform multi-detection on the same image at different scales, and obtain properties (e.g., size, area) of the objects based on the desired shape (e.g., circle, ellipse, rectangle). Additionally, we have developed a parallel detection module that uses multiple GPUs to increase the efficiency of the object detection process. We demonstrate the capabilities of our framework using a set of TEM images of cavities with different shapes, size distributions, and background contrasts. Finally, we show that the performance of our model in terms of density, size, and swelling of the cavities is comparable to the human average and that our model achieves the highest recall value compared to existing methods due to the use of image multi-rescaling.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Hybrid RANS-LES of the Atmospheric Boundary Layer for Wind Farm Simulations: Preprint

Wind farm simulations often do not accurately represent wake-atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) interactions, blade boundary layer (BL) dynamics, and turbine-turbine interactions. In this work, we use Active Model Split (AMS), a new hybrid Reynolds-Averaged Navier Stokes (RANS)-large eddy simulation (LES) model, which is well suited to capture these effects because the model can (i) accurately simulate the ABL with the Coriolis effect, (ii) is accurate in adverse pressure gradients such as those near wind turbine blades, and (iii) has sufficiently low computational cost to simulate multiple turbines while resolving the blade BL. For simplicity and consistency we develop AMS to be used throughout the domain rather than in a zonal method. We implement our work in the massively parallel flow solver, Nalu-Wind, so that our model can access the compute resources needed for blade-resolved simulations of multiple wind turbines. To accomplish these aims, we modify the baseline AMS by changing the RANS contribution to SST k - omega with a length scale limiter, adding the Coriolis effect, and developing an appropriate wall treatment. We show that AMS of the ABL with the Coriolis effect matches LES reference results better than those obtained with RANS. We describe our plans to add buoyancy effects and wind turbines to our AMS simulations.

atmospheric boundary layer↗
DOE OSTI2022

Neural Network-Based Electric Vehicle Range Prediction for Smart Charging Optimization

Range prediction is a standard feature in most modern road vehicles, allowing drivers to make informed decisions about when to refuel. Most vehicles make range predictions through data- or model-driven means, monitoring the average fuel consumption rate or using a tuned vehicle model to predict fuel consumption. The uncertainty of future driving conditions makes the range prediction problem challenging, particularly for less pervasive battery electric vehicles (BEV). Most contemporary machine learning-based methods attempt to forecast the battery SOC discharge profile to predict vehicle range. In this work, we propose a novel approach using two recurrent neural networks (RNNs) to predict the remaining range of BEVs and the minimum charge required to safely complete a trip. Each RNN has two outputs that can be used for statistical analysis to account for uncertainties; the first loss function leads to mean and variance estimation (MVE), while the second results in bounded interval estimation (BIE). These outputs of the proposed RNNs are then used to predict the probability of a vehicle completing a given trip without charging, or if charging is needed, the remaining range and minimum charging required to finish the trip with high probability. Training data was generated using a low-order physics model to estimate vehicle energy consumption from historical drive cycle data collected from medium-duty last-mile delivery vehicles. Here, the proposed method demonstrated high accuracy in the presence of day-to-day route variability, with the root-mean-square error (RMSE) below 6% for both RNN models.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

A principle of maximum ignorance for semiclassical gravity

The principle of maximum ignorance posits that the coarse-grained description of a system is maximally agnostic about its underlying microscopic structure. We briefly review this principle for random matrix theory and for the eigenstate thermalization hypothesis. We then apply this principle in holography to construct ensembles of random mixed states. This leads to an ensemble of microstates which models our microscopic ignorance, and which on average reproduces the effective semiclassical physics of a given bulk state. We call this ensemble the state-averaging ansatz. The output of our model is a prediction for semiclassical contributions to variances and higher statistical moments over the ensemble of microstates. The statistical moments provide coarse-grained — yet gravitationally non-perturbative — information about the microstructure of the individual states of the ensemble. We show that these contributions exactly match the on-shell action of known wormhole configurations of the gravitational path integral. These results strengthen the view that wormholes simply parametrize the ignorance of the microstructure of a fundamental state, given a fixed semiclassical bulk description.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2022

Dynamic energy system modeling using hybrid physics-based and machine learning encoder–decoder models

Three model configurations are presented for multi-step time series predictions of the heat absorbed by the water and steam in a thermal power plant. The models predict over horizons of 2, 4, and 6 steps into the future, where each step is a 5-minute increment. The evaluated models are a pure machine learning model, a novel hybrid machine learning and physics-based model, and the hybrid model with an incomplete dataset. The hybrid model deconstructs the machine learning into individual boiler heat absorption units: economizer, water wall, superheater, and reheater. Each configuration uses a gated recurrent unit (GRU) or a GRU-based encoder–decoder as the deep learning architecture. Mean squared error is used to evaluate the models compared to target values. The encoder–decoder architecture is over 11% more accurate than the GRU only models. The hybrid model with the incomplete dataset highlights the importance of the manipulated variables to the system. The hybrid model, compared to the pure machine learning model, is over 10% more accurate on average over 20 iterations of each model. Automatic differentiation is applied to the hybrid model to perform a local sensitivity analysis to identify the most impactful of the 72 manipulated variables on the heat absorbed in the boiler. The models and sensitivity analyses are used in a discussion about optimizing the thermal power plant.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

Trade-offs between individual and ensemble forecasts of an emerging infectious disease

Probabilistic forecasts play an indispensable role in answering questions about the spread of newly emerged pathogens. However, uncertainties about the epidemiology of emerging pathogens can make it difficult to choose among alternative model structures and assumptions. To assess the potential for uncertainties about emerging pathogens to affect forecasts of their spread, we evaluated the performance 16 forecasting models in the context of the 2015-2016 Zika epidemic in Colombia. Each model featured a different combination of assumptions about human mobility, spatiotemporal variation in transmission potential, and the number of virus introductions. We found that which model assumptions had the most ensemble weight changed through time. We additionally identified a trade-off whereby some individual models outperformed ensemble models early in the epidemic, but on average the ensembles outperformed all individual models. Our results suggest that multiple models spanning uncertainty across alternative assumptions are necessary to obtain robust forecasts for emerging infectious diseases.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Development of Time Lapse VSP Integration Workflow: A Case Study at Farnsworth CO2-EOR Project

Abstract This study aims to develop a 4D Vertical Seismic Profile (VSP) integration workflow to improve the prediction of subsurface stress changes. The selected study site is a 5-spot pattern within the ongoing CO2-EOR operations at the Farnsworth Field Unit FWU in Ochiltree County, Texas. The specific pattern has undergone extensive geological and geomechanical characterization through the acquisition of 3D seismic data, geophysical well logs, and core. This workflow constrains a numerical hydromechanical model by applying a penalty function formed between "modeled" versus "observed" time-lapse compressional and shear seismic velocity changes. Analyses of geophysical logs and ultra-sonic measurements on core exhibit measurable sensitivities to changes in both fluid saturation and mean effective stress. These data are used to develop a site-specific rock physics model and stress-velocity relationship, which inform the numerical models used to generate the "modeled" portion of the penalty function. The "observed" portion of the penalty function is provided by a novel elastic full-waveform inversion of the available 3D baseline and three monitor surveys to produce high-quality estimates of time-lapse compressional and shear seismic velocity changes. The modeling workflow accounts sequentially for fluid substitution and stress impacts. Hydrodynamic and geomechanical properties of the 3D coupled numerical model are estimated through geostatistical integration of well log and core data with 3D seismic inversion products. Changes in seismic velocities due to fluid substitution are computed using the Biot-Gassmann workflow and site-specific rock physics. Stress impacts on time-lapse seismic velocity changes are modeled from the effective stress output of the hydromechanical model and are initially based on the velocity versus effective stress relationship extracted from core mechanical testing. Based on the principle of superposition of seismic wavefields, seismic velocity changes attributed to fluid substitution and that due to changes in mean effective stress are treated as linearly additive. The modeled results are upscaled using Backus averaging to reconcile scale discrepancies between the modeled and measured datasets to formulate the penalty function. This manuscript presents the forward modeling process and concludes that for the base case, the seismic velocity changes due to mean effective stress dominates over the seismic velocity changes attributed to fluid substitution because of the extensive range of the pressure perturbations. Successful minimization of this penalty function calibrates the coupled hydrodynamic geomechanical numerical model and affirms the suitability of acoustic time-lapse measurements such as 4D-VSP for geomechanical calibration.

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2022

Modeling and evaluating 239 Pu and 235 U PFNS and average prompt-neutron multiplicity [Slides]

The following are currently in VIII.1 LANL and IAEA test files: 239 Pu nu-bar including CGMF modeling and CEA data, 239 Pu PFNS including Chi-Nu & CEA data, 239 Pu(n,f) cross section including fission TPC data. The following are currently being tested: 235 U nu-bar including CGMF modeling and 235 U PFNS including Chi-Nu data. Upcoming tasks include the correction of 235 U Chi-Nu PFNS at higher E inc , benchmarking 235 U PFNS and nu-bar evaluations, and getting 238 U nu-bar.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Multifrequency Models of Black Hole Photon Rings from Low-luminosity Accretion Disks

Images of black holes encode both astrophysical and gravitational properties. Detecting highly lensed features in images can differentiate between these two effects. We present an accretion disk emission model coupled to the Adaptive Analytical Ray Tracing (AART) code that allows a fast parameter space exploration of black hole photon ring images produced from synchrotron emission from 10 to 670 GHz. As an application, we systematically study several disk models and compute their total flux density, average radii, and optical depth. The model parameters are chosen around fiducial values calibrated to general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic (GRMHD) simulations and observations of M87*. For the parameter space studied, we characterize the transition between optically thin and thick regimes and the frequency at which the first photon ring is observable. Our results highlight the need for careful definitions of photon ring radius in the image domain, as in certain models the highly lensed photon ring is dimmer than the direct emission at certain angles. We find that at low frequencies the ring radii are set by the electron temperature, while at higher frequencies the magnetic field strength plays a more significant role, demonstrating how multifrequency analysis can also be used to infer plasma parameters. Lastly, we show how our implementation can qualitatively reproduce multifrequency black hole images from GRMHD simulations when adding time variability to our disk model through Gaussian random fields. This approach provides a new method for simulating observations from the Event Horizon Telescope and the proposed Black Hole Explorer space mission.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Effects of Port Angle on Scavenging of an Opposed Piston Two-Stroke Engine

Opposed-piston 2-stroke (OP-2S) engines have the potential to achieve higher thermal efficiency than a typical diesel engine. However, the uniflow scavenging process is difficult to control over a wide range of speeds and loads. Scavenging performance is highly sensitive to pressure dynamics, port timings, and port design. This study proposes an analysis of the effects of port vane angle on the scavenging performance of an opposed-piston 2-stroke engine via simulation. A CFD model of a three-cylinder opposed-piston 2-stroke was developed and validated against experimental data collected by Achates Power Inc. One of the three cylinders was then isolated in a new model and simulated using cycle-averaged and cylinder-averaged initial/ boundary conditions. This isolated cylinder model was used to efficiently sweep port angles from 12 degrees to 29 degrees at different pressure ratios. Results indicate that scavenging performance is correlated with the bulk swirl ratio generated by these port angles. Scavenging performance is also sensitive to the pressure ratio across the engine. It was concluded that, for a given pressure ratio, the smallest port angle produces the best scavenging; however, previous work indicates lower bulk swirl ratio during combustion can have an impact on emissions formation.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Progress in Simulating the Quasi–Biennial Oscillation in CMIP Models

The quasi–biennial oscillation (QBO) of the zonal mean zonal wind is the primary mode of variability in the tropical lower stratosphere. The QBO is characterized by alternating easterly westerly shear layers that descend down from ~10 to 100 hPa. The QBO is also seen in lower stratospheric tropical temperature, water vapor, and ozone and affects tropospheric variability through various teleconnections. We examine here the progress in simulating the QBO in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) models, more specifically in CMIP3, CMIP5, and CMIP6 models. We show that the number of models that are able to simulate the QBO has increased from 0 in CMIP3, to 5 in CMIP5, to 15 in CMIP6. While the number of models with an internally generated QBO has tripled from CMIP5 to CMIP6, the fidelity of the simulation averaged over the CMIP models has not improved. We show that CMIP5 and CMIP6 models represent the QBO period and latitudinal extent quite well; however the QBO amplitude is shifted upwards relative to observations resulting in large underestimation of QBO amplitude at all levels below 20 hPa. As a result, the underestimation of QBO amplitude in the lowermost stratosphere and lack of variations downward to the tropopause and below will likely impact the quality of teleconnections seen in the current generation Earth system models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Development, Implementation, and Verification of Partially-Ionized Collisional Multifluid Plasma Models in Drekar

We consider the development of multifluid models for partially ionized multispecies plasmas. The models are composed of a standard set of five-moment fluid equations for each species plus a description of electromagnetics. The most general model considered utilizes a full set of fluid equations for each charge state of each atomic species, plus a set of fluid equations for electrons. The fluid equations are coupled through source terms describing electromagnetic coupling, ionization, recombination, charge exchange, and elastic scattering collisions in the low-density coronal limit. The form of each of these source terms is described in detail, and references for required rate coefficients are identified for a diverse range of atomic species. Initial efforts have been made to extend these models to incorporate some higher-density collisional effects, including ionization potential depression and three- body recombination. Some reductions of the general multifluid model are considered. First, a reduced multifluid model is derived which averages over all of the charge states (including neutrals) of each atomic species in the general multifluid model. The resulting model maintains full consistency with the general multifluid model from which it is derived by leveraging a quasi-steady-state collisional ionization equilibrium assumption to recover the ionization fractions required to make use of the general collision models. Further reductions are briefly considered to derive certain components of a single-fluid magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) model. In this case, a generalized Ohm's law is obtained, and the standard MHD resistivity is expressed in terms of the collisional models used in the general multifluid model. A number of numerical considerations required to obtain robust implementations of these multifluid models are discussed. First, an algebraic flux correction (AFC) stabilization approach for a continuous Galerkin finite element discretization of the multifluid system is described in which the characteristic speeds used in the stabilization of the fluid systems are synchronized across all species in the model. It is demonstrated that this synchronization is crucial in order to obtain a robust discretization of the multifluid system. Additionally, several different formulations are considered for describing the electromagnetics portion of the multifluid system using nodal continuous Galerkin finite element discretizations. The formulations considered include a parabolic divergence cleaning method and an implicit projection method for the traditional curl formulation of Maxwell's equations, a purely- hyperbolic potential-based formulation of Maxwell's equations, and a mixed hyperbolic-elliptic potential-based formulation of Maxwell's equations. Some advantages and disadvantages of each formulation are explored to compare solution robustness and the ease of use of each formulation. Numerical results are presented to demonstrate the accuracy and robustness of various components of our implementation. Analytic solutions for a spatially homogeneous damped plasma oscillation are derived in order to verify the implementation of the source terms for electromagnetic coupling and elastic collisions between fluid species. Ionization balance as a function of electron temperature is evaluated for several atomic species of interest by comparing to steady-state calculations using various sets of ionization and recombination rate coefficients. Several test problems in one and two spatial dimensions are used to demonstrate the accuracy and robustness of the discretization and stabilization approach for the fluid components of the multifluid system. This includes standard test problems for electrostatic and electromagnetic shock tubes in the two-fluid and ideal shock-MHD limits, a cylindrical diocotron instability, and the GEM challenge magnetic reconnection problem. A one-dimensional simplified prototype of an argon gas puff configuration as deployed on Sandia's Z-machine is used as a demonstration to exercise the full range of capabilities associated with the general multifluid model.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Efficient bi-directional coupling of 3D computational fluid-particle dynamics and 1D Multiple Path Particle Dosimetry lung models for multiscale modeling of aerosol dosimetry

The development of predictive aerosol dosimetry models has been a major focus of environmental toxicology and pharmaceutical health research for decades. One-dimensional (1D) models successfully predict overall deposition averages but fail to accurately predict local deposition. Computational fluid-particle dynamics (CFPD) models provide site-specific predictions but at a computational cost that prohibits whole lung predictions. Thus, there is a need for developing multiscale strategies to provide a realistic subject-specific picture of the fate of inhaled aerosol in the lungs. CT-based 3D/CFPD models of the large airways were bidirectionally coupled with individualized 1D Navier-Stokes airflow and particle transport based upon the widely used Multiple Path Particle Dosimetry Model (MPPD). Distribution of airflows among lobes was adjusted by measured lobar volume changes observed in CT images between FRC and FRC + 1.5 L. Additionally, as a test of the effectiveness of the coupling procedures, deposition modeling of previous 1 µm aerosol exposure studies was performed. The complete coupled model was run for 3 breaths, with the computation-intense portion being the 3D CFD Lagrangian particle tracking calculation. The average deposition per breath was 11% in the combined multiscale model with site-specific doses available in the CFPD portion of the model and airway- or region-specific deposition available for the MPPD portion. In conclusion, the key methods developed in this study enable predictions of ventilation heterogeneities and aerosol deposition across the lungs that are not captured by 3D or 1D models alone. Overall, these methods can be used as the foundation for multi-scale modeling of the full respiratory system.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

AIF for Vis (Active Inference for simulating human interpretation of data visualization) [SWR-26-084]

AIF for Vis contains the Active Inference models and analysis scripts used to study a simple visualization-interpretation task: estimating the average value of two bars in a bar chart. The work is a proof of concept for translating hypothesized cognitive strategies into executable, inspectable process models. We implement two idealized strategies inspired by dual-process accounts of visualization-aided decision making: *Fast model: a compressed, heuristic strategy that estimates the visual midpoint of the two bars and maintains a single belief over their average. *Slow model: a sequential, analytic strategy that estimates the two bar heights separately and maintains them in working memory before computing an average. Both models use a common Active-Inference-inspired framework for sequential perception, belief updating, action selection, and reporting. Their different internal representations produce distinct predicted vulnerabilities: *the Fast model is more susceptible to tick-salience bias; *the Slow model is more susceptible to working-memory decay. The repository includes the model implementations, scripts used for the experiments reported in the paper, precomputed trial-level results, and plotting scripts.

Goldwyn, Harrison [National Laboratory of the Rock↗
DOE OSTI2024

Impacts of Topography‐Driven Water Redistribution on Terrestrial Water Storage Change in California Through Ecosystem Responses

Abstract Lateral subsurface flow plays an essential role in sustaining the terrestrial ecosystem, but it is not explicitly represented in most Earth System Models. In this study, we implemented an explicit lateral saturated flow model into the E3SM land model (ELM). The model explicitly describes lateral flow in the saturated zone by representing, for each model grid, an idealized hillslope consisting of five hydrologically connected soil columns. We conducted three model experiments driven by 0.125° atmospheric forcing data during 1980–2015 over California using models of the default ELM, a modified version of ELM to enhance infiltration, and the model with the lateral saturated flow model. The simulated runoff, evapotranspiration, and terrestrial water storage anomaly (TWSA) from the three simulations were evaluated against available observations, and the model explicitly representing lateral flow performs best. The new model produces greater gridcell‐averaged evapotranspiration especially over the mountainous regions with moderate relief and seasonally dry climates. Most importantly, it improves the modeled seasonal variations, interannual variabilities, and the recent decadal decline of TWSA. Many of these improvements can be attributed to the enhanced ecosystem resilience to droughts as demonstrated by transpiration increases caused by lateral flow. Model sensitivity experiments suggest that subsurface runoff is most sensitive to the ratio between horizontal and vertical saturated hydraulic conductivity, followed by hillslope planforms (convergent, divergent, and uniform), number of columns, and lower boundary conditions. Future work should effectively characterize hillslopes in global models and explore the long‐term influences of lateral water movement on modeled biogeochemical cycle.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗