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At least 343 records · Page 19

Exploring Data Set Bias and Decision Support with Predictive Uncertainty Through Bayesian Approximations and Convolutional Neural Networks

Individual seismic catalogs can contain multiscale observations from fault level to global scales and associated waveforms from discrete events reflect crustal structure across many different scales and locations. Seismic network aperture, geographic location, and observation distance may not provide informative guidance or intuition on how different catalogs will behave across models trained under different conditions. We rely on uncertainty to provide guardrails for when to trust model decisions, but understanding when our uncertainty is trustworthy is an open challenge. Here, in this work, we explore Bayesian approximation methods for assigning predictive uncertainty in seismic event classification problems. We find that computationally expensive Bayesian approximations do not outperform simple ensemble methods. We also find that when exploiting multiple seismic event catalogs, joint training with data from all the catalogs combined with Bayesian approximations and supervised training for classification can obscure bias and result in less robust uncertainty while also not providing substantial performance benefits compared to training individual models for each catalog.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Educating local radial basis functions using the highest gradient of interest in three dimensional geometries: EDUCATING LOCALIZED RBF-SCHEMES

We present a novel methodology to effectively localize radial basis function approximation methods in three dimensions. The local scheme requires shape parameter-dependent functions that can be used to approximate gradients of scattered data and to solve partial differential operators. The optimum shape parameter is obtained from the highest gradient of interest, where a known analytical function, when boundary conditions are not present, or a shape parameter-free global approximation are used to educate the localized scheme. The later option is applicable to problems where the operator needs to be solved multiple times, like in time evolution or stochastic integration. Past shape parameter's optimizations, for two-dimensional domains, based on the condition number of the interpolant matrix, were unable to provide satisfactory approximations. The applicability of our method is illustrated in the context of an analytical expression interpolation and during a Ginzburg-Landau relaxation of a free energy functional. In general, the optimum shape parameter depends on geometry, node distribution, and density, whereas the approximation errors decrease as the node density and the local stencil size increase. The effective localization of radial basis functions motivates its use in moving boundary problems and accelerates solutions through sparse matrix solvers.

free energy functional↗

Analytic insights into nonlocal energy transport. III. steady state Fokker Planck theory in spherical and planar geometry

This paper develops an approximate steady state Fokker Planck theory for energetic electron transport in a spherical laser fusion target. First, we apply the theory to only a small population of electrons, which is specified at the outset. Then, one determines the nonlocal electron energy flux of these electrons at a particular position. These energetic electrons may either come from the tail of the thermal distribution function or be generated by an instability. This paper develops two approximate methods of solution, which we call the “characteristic method” and “sparse eigenfunction.” The former works only in planar geometry and the latter in both planar and spherical geometry. Comparison of the two methods in planar geometry shows that even though the approximations are very different, they give about the same result, increasing their credibility. For the example we have chosen, spherical effects are not important for electrons from the tail of the distribution function but may well be for instability generated electrons, which have much higher energy. Comparing planar to spherical, one finds an additional spherical barrier protecting the fuel. It turns out that the associated fuel preheat a Fokker Planck model predicts is considerably less than that predicted by the Krook models as developed at both NRL and other places.

Manheimer, Wallace (ORCID:0000000163342591)↗

Estimation of unknown variable parameters in moving boundary problems

The problem of estimating unknown variable parameters appearing in moving boundary problems is considered; these are specifically nonlinear diffusion equations defined on a moving spatial domain. A spline-based approximation method that results in a sequence of computationally tractable approximate parameter estimation problems has been developed. A convergence result is proved for a certain class of these moving boundary problems. The paper is concluded with a set of representative numerical examples.

Murphy, K. A.↗

DFTB+, a software package for efficient approximate density functional theory based atomistic simulations

DFTB+ is a versatile community developed open source software package offering fast and efficient methods for carrying out atomistic quantum mechanical simulations. By implementing various methods approximating density functional theory (DFT), such as the density functional based tight binding (DFTB) and the extended tight binding method, it enables simulations of large systems and long timescales with reasonable accuracy while being considerably faster for typical simulations than the respective ab initio methods. Based on the DFTB framework, it additionally offers approximated versions of various DFT extensions including hybrid functionals, time dependent formalism for treating excited systems, electron transport using non-equilibrium Green’s functions, and many more. DFTB+ can be used as a user-friendly standalone application in addition to being embedded into other software packages as a library or acting as a calculation-server accessed by socket communication. We give an overview of the recently developed capabilities of the DFTB+ code, demonstrating with a few use case examples, discuss the strengths and weaknesses of the various features, and also discuss on-going developments and possible future perspectives.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

A posteriori error analysis of fluid–structure interactions: Time dependent error

A posteriori error analysis is a technique to quantify the error in particular simulations of a numerical approximation method. In this article, we use such an approach to analyze how various error components propagate in certain moving boundary problems. We study quasi-steady state simulations where slowly moving boundaries remain in mechanical equilibrium with a surrounding fluid. Such problems can be numerically approximated with the Method of Regularized Stokelets (MRS), a popular method used for studying viscous fluid–structure interactions, especially in biological applications. Our approach to monitoring the regularization error of the MRS is novel, along with the derivation of linearized adjoint equations to the governing equations of the MRS with a elastic elements. Our main numerical results provide a clear illustration of how the error evolves over time in several MRS simulations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A General Framework for Bounding Approximate Dynamic Programming Schemes

For years, there has been interest in approximation methods for solving dynamic programming problems, because of the inherent complexity in computing optimal solutions characterized by Bellman’s principle of optimality. A wide range of approximate dynamic programming (ADP) methods now exists. It is of great interest to guarantee that the performance of an ADP scheme be at least some known fraction, say ß , of optimal. This letter introduces a general approach to bounding the performance of ADP methods, in this sense, in the stochastic setting. The approach is based on new results for bounding greedy solutions in string optimization problems, where one has to choose a string (ordered set) of actions to maximize an objective function. This bounding technique is inspired by submodularity theory, but submodularity is not required for establishing bounds. Instead, the bounding is based on quantifying certain notions of curvature of string functions; the smaller the curvatures the better the bound. The key insight is that any ADP scheme is a greedy scheme for some surrogate string objective function that coincides in its optimal solution and value with those of the original optimal control problem. The ADP scheme then yields to the bounding technique mentioned above, and the curvatures of the surrogate objective determine the value ß of the bound. The surrogate objective and its curvatures depend on the specific ADP.

discrete event systems↗

Calculating Time-Integral Quantities in Depletion Calculations

A method referred to as tally nuclides is presented for accurately and efficiently calculating the time-step averages and integrals of any quantities that are weighted sums of atomic densities with constant weights during the step. The method allows all such quantities to be calculated simultaneously as a part of a single depletion solution with existing depletion algorithms. Some examples of the results that can be extracted include step-average atomic densities and macroscopic reaction rates, the total number of fissions during the step, and the amount of energy released during the step. Furthermore, the method should be applicable with several depletion algorithms, and the integrals or averages should be calculated with an accuracy comparable to that reached by the selected algorithm for end-of-step atomic densities. The accuracy of the method is demonstrated in depletion calculations using the Chebyshev rational approximation method. Here, we demonstrate how the ability to calculate energy release in depletion calculations can be used to determine the accuracy of the normalization in a constant-power burnup calculation during the calculation without a need for a reference solution.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Nozzle Free Jet Flows Within the Strong Curved Shock Regime

A study based on inviscid analysis was conducted to examine the flow field produced from a convergent-divergent nozzle when a strong curved shock occurs. It was found that a certain constraint is imposed on the flow solution of the problem which is the unique feature of the flow within this flow regime, and provides the reason why the inverse method of calculation cannot be employed for these problems. An approximate method was developed to calculate the flow field, and results were obtained for two-dimensional flows. Analysis and calculations were performed for flows with axial symmetry. It is shown that under certain conditions, the vorticity generated at the jet boundary may become infinite and the viscous effect becomes important. Under other conditions, the asymptotic free jet height as well as the corresponding shock geometry were determined.

Shih, Tso-Shin↗

A new computational approach for the solutions of generalized pantograph-delay differential equations

In this study, a new computational approach is presented to solve the generalized pantograph-delay differential equations (PDDEs). The solutions obtained by our scheme represent by a linear combination of a special kind of basis functions, and can be deduced in a straightforward manner. Firstly, using the least squares approximation method and the Lagrange-multiplier method, the given PDDE is converted to a linear system of algebraic equations, and those unknown coefficients of the solution of the problem are determined by solving this linear system. Secondly, a PDDE related to the error function of the approximate solution is constructed based on the residual error function technique, and error estimation is presented for the suggested method. The convergence of the approximate solution is proved. Several numerical examples are given to demonstrate the accuracy and efficiency. Comparisons are made between the proposed method and other existing methods.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Solution of axisymmetric fluid structure interaction problems with NASTRAN

The solution of axisymmetric acoustic fluid structure interaction problems, employing the NASTRAN computer program is presented. A previously developed 3-D Cartesian Coordinates pressure element formulation is adapted especially for axisymmetric elements. Analogous to the 3-D Cartesian Coordinate predecessor, the fluid portion of the problem is modeled with finite elements wherein one of the displacement components serves as a dummy variable for the pressure unknowns. Two alternatives for implementation of the analogy are presented: (1) an approximate method by which dummy values of G, and nu are used to approximately invoke the analogy wherein the accuracy of the approximation is made as close as desired to the proper analogy within an arbitrary small parameter epsiton; (2) an exact method whereby the NASTRAN FORTRAN coding is slightly changed to invoke the analogy exactly. Comparison of the finite element solution to the exact solution to the same problem is given.

Kalinowski, A. J.↗

Thermal Radiation Effects Analyzed in Translucent Composite and Thermal Barrier Coating

Ceramic parts and coatings are needed to withstand high temperatures in advanced aircraft engines. In hot environments, such as in the combustion chambers of these engines, infrared and visible radiation can penetrate into some ceramics and heat them internally. The internal temperatures depend on radiative effects combined with heat conduction, and on convection and radiation at the material boundaries. Since engine temperatures are high, radiant emission can be large from within translucent parts and coatings, and this must be included in the analysis. Transient and steady-state behavior are both important. During a transient, radiant penetration provides more rapid internal heating than conduction alone, and the temperature distributions are usually considerably different than for steady-state conditions; this can produce transient thermal stresses. Analytical and numerical methods are being used at the NASA Lewis Research Center to predict transient temperatures and heat flows in translucent materials. A transient analysis was done for a composite of two translucent layers. The layer refractive indices were larger than 1, producing internal reflections at the boundaries and at the internal interface. In addition, steady-state results were computed for a two-layer composite with one layer opaque. The results were used to assess the importance of internal radiation in a zirconia thermal barrier coating on a cooled metal wall. Since the radiative transfer equations are rather complex, especially when internal scattering is included, approximate methods are being investigated that might be convenient for computer design programs. An approximate two-flux method was used and verified by comparisons with solutions that used exact radiative transfer relations. The two-flux equations include scattering without increasing solution difficulty.

Siegel, Robert↗

Towards the Robust Small-Signal Stability Region of Power Systems Under Perturbations Such as Uncertain and Volatile Wind Generation

This paper addresses how to extend the concept of small-signal stability region (SSSR) to that of robust small-signal stability region (RSSSR), within which the system can remain stable even under perturbations caused by uncertain and volatile nodal injections, such as renewable generation. We first employ the structured perturbation theory to formulate the perturbations of nodal injections in state space. Both the intensity and the locations of perturbations can be taken into account. Then, we leverage the stability radius theory and structured singular value theory to define the RSSSR in parameter subspace, enabling a systematic analysis of small-signal stability of power systems under perturbations in a region-wise manner. The hyperplane-approximation method can be employed to construct a linear closed-form approximation of RSSSR boundaries. Case studies on the modified two-area system and New England 39-node system illustrate the new concept of RSSSR and its potential applications.

power system stability analysis↗

A Data-Driven Global Sensitivity Analysis Framework for Three-Phase Distribution System with PVs

Global sensitivity analysis (GSA) of distribution systems with respect to stochastic PV and load variations plays an important role in designing optimal voltage control schemes. This paper proposes a data-driven framework for GSA of distribution systems. In particular, two representative surrogate modeling-based approaches are developed, including the traditional Gaussian process-based and the analysis of variance (ANOVA) kernel ones. The key idea is to develop a surrogate model that captures the hidden global relationship between voltage and real and reactive power injections from the historical data. With the surrogate model, the Sobol indices can be conveniently calculated through either the sampling-based method or the analytical method to assess the global sensitivity of voltage to variations of PV and load power injections. The sampling-based method approximates the Sobol indices using Monte Carlo simulations while the analytical method calculates them by resorting to the ANOVA expansion framework. Comparison results with other model-based GSA methods on the unbalanced three-phase IEEE 37-bus and 123-bus distribution systems show that the proposed framework can achieve much higher computational efficiency with negligible loss of accuracy. The results on a real 240-node distribution system using actual smart meter data further validate the feasibility and scalability of the proposed framework.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Conditional Point Sampling: A Monte Carlo Method for Radiation Transport in Stochastic Media.

Current methods for stochastic media transport are either computationally expensive or, by nature, approximate. Moreover, none of the well-developed, benchmarked approximate methods can compute the variance caused by the stochastic mixing, a quantity especially important to safety calculations. Therefore, we derive and apply a new conditional probability function (CPF) for use in the recently developed stochastic media transport algorithm Conditional Point Sampling (CoPS), which 1) leverages the full intra-particle memory of CoPS to yield errorless computation of stochastic media outputs in 1D, binary, Markovian-mixed media, and 2) leverages the full inter-particle memory of CoPS and the recently developed Embedded Variance Deconvolution method to yield computation of the variance in transport outputs caused by stochastic material mixing. Numerical results demonstrate errorless stochastic media transport as compared to reference benchmark solutions with the new CPF for this class of stochastic mixing as well as the ability to compute the variance caused by the stochastic mixing via CoPS. Using previously derived, non-errorless CPFs, CoPS is further found to be more accurate than the atomic mix approximation, Chord Length Sampling (CLS), and most of memory-enhanced versions of CLS surveyed. In addition, we study the compounding behavior of CPF error as a function of cohort size (where a cohort is a group of histories that share intra-particle memory) and recommend that small cohorts be used when computing the variance in transport outputs caused by stochastic mixing.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

Optimization of Turbine Engine Cycle Analysis with Analytic Derivatives

A new engine cycle analysis tool, called Pycycle, was built using the OpenMDAO framework. Pycycle provides analytic derivatives allowing for an efficient use of gradient-based optimization methods on engine cycle models, without requiring the use of finite difference derivative approximation methods. To demonstrate this, a gradient-based design optimization was performed on a turbofan engine model. Results demonstrate very favorable performance compared to an optimization of an identical model using finite-difference approximated derivatives.

OpenMDAO↗

Numeric Modified Adomian Decomposition Method for Power System Simulations

This paper investigates the applicability of numeric Wazwaz El Sayed modified Adomian Decomposition Method (WES-ADM) for time domain simulation of power systems. WESADM is a numerical method based on a modified Adomian decomposition (ADM) technique. WES-ADM is a numerical approximation method for the solution of nonlinear ordinary differential equations. The non-linear terms in the differential equations are approximated using Adomian polynomials. In this paper WES-ADM is applied to time domain simulations of multimachine power systems. WECC 3-generator, 9-bus system and IEEE 10-generator, 39-bus system have been used to test the applicability of the approach. Several fault scenarios have been tested. It has been found that the proposed approach is faster than the trapezoidal method with comparable accuracy.

Adomian Decomposition↗