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At least 343 records · Page 19
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Force-Triggered, Biobased Sealants for Prefabricated Building Components: Toward Improved Efficiency and Performance

The prefabricated building construction industry has made extensive progress in expediting the manufacture of prefabricated components at off-site plants. However, the sealing of joints between these components, which is crucial to ensuring the weatherproofing of the assembly, still represents a labor-intensive, on-site effort that relies on the manual installation of tapes and caulks. Here, to reduce work at the jobsite and improve the airtightness and waterproofness of building envelopes, we developed a sealant that can be installed at the plant on prefab components and have the curing reaction triggered at the jobsite by using microencapsulation technology to separate the reactive agents. A series of force-triggered, high-strength, and fast-curing sealants derived from biobased feedstocks were developed, which consist of a biobased epoxy agent encapsulated in a polymer shell, embedded in a biobased amine curing agent. The shell of the microcapsules allows an effective separation of the reactive species in the one-part sealant, allowing shelf stability to an otherwise fast-curing system as well as improving the hydrophobicity of the whole system. When force activates and breaks the microcapsules, the highly reactive epoxy and amine mix and cure, exhibiting peel strength values of up to 143 ppi (pounds per inch). The hydrophobicity of the sealants allows them to retain up to 94% of the original peel strength after complete submersion in water for 24 h, showcasing the water resistivity of the sealant system. The open-air shelf stability of the sealant complex is demonstrated by the obtention of peel strength values of ∼16 ppi when triggering the curing reaction even after being exposed 8 months to open air and humidity. The successful on-demand triggering of curing reactions and the shelf stability provide efficacy of these force-triggered sealants for installation on prefabricated components, storage for months prior to delivery, and assembly at a jobsite. These force-triggered biobased sealants for prefabricated buildings can result in lower installation time and cost and better performance than tapes and caulks at the jobsite.

biobased↗
DOE OSTI2023

Decoupling of Arctic variability from the North Pacific in a warmer climate

The sea level pressure variability in the North Pacific modulates the climate of the Arctic and surrounding continents, substantially impacting ecosystems and indigenous communities. Our analysis based on data from the CESM2 Large Ensemble and different Model Intercomparison Project datasets reveals that the interannual variability of Arctic surface air temperature (SAT) gradually decouples from the contemporaneous atmospheric conditions over the North Pacific as external forcing increases in intensity in the future. Future projections show that the North Pacific-Arctic relationship during the fall season consistently weakens in magnitude until the end of this century, and in the 22nd and 23rd centuries, the relationship is negligible throughout the year. We show that under increased greenhouse gas emissions, the regional heat fluxes extensively control the Arctic temperature variability, and the strength of the projected North Pacific-Arctic relationship is strongly dependent on the Arctic sea ice extent. Our results suggest that under future warming, a strong coupling of Arctic SAT with the underlying ocean and a weakening of the meridional pressure gradient driven by an enhanced rate of sea ice retreat will weaken the interannual footprint of North Pacific variability on Arctic SAT. Therefore, we propose that the alarming rate of sea-ice decline over recent decades and projected in the near future could accelerate the rate of decoupling. Further, we suggest that mitigation strategies for the Arctic should focus on regional mechanisms operating on interannual and seasonal timescales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

On the mechanisms of ion adsorption to aqueous interfaces: air-water vs. oil-water

The adsorption of ions to water-hydrophobe interfaces influences a wide range of phenomena, including chemical reaction rates, ion transport across biological membranes, and electrochemical and many catalytic processes; hence, developing a detailed understanding of the behavior of ions at water-hydrophobe interfaces is of central interest. Here, we characterize the adsorption of the chaotropic thiocyanate anion (SCN − ) to two prototypical liquid hydrophobic surfaces, water-toluene and water-decane, by surface-sensitive nonlinear spectroscopy and compare the results against our previous studies of SCN − adsorption to the air-water interface. For these systems, we observe no spectral shift in the charge transfer to solvent spectrum of SCN − , and the Gibb’s free energies of adsorption for these three different interfaces all agree within error. We employed molecular dynamics simulations to develop a molecular-level understanding of the adsorption mechanism and found that the adsorption for SCN − to both water-toluene and water-decane interfaces is driven by an increase in entropy, with very little enthalpic contribution. This is a qualitatively different mechanism than reported for SCN − adsorption to the air-water and graphene-water interfaces, wherein a favorable enthalpy change was the main driving force, against an unfavorable entropy change.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Impacts of Wildfire Aerosols on Global Energy Budget and Climate: The Role of Climate Feedbacks

Aerosols emitted from wildfires could significantly affect global climate through perturbing global radiation balance. In this study, the Community Earth System Model with prescribed daily fire aerosol emissions is used to investigate fire aerosols’ impacts on global climate with emphasis on the role of climate feedbacks. The total global fire aerosol radiative effect (RE) is estimated to be -0.78 ± 0.29 W m -2 , which is mostly from shortwave RE due to aerosol–cloud interactions (REaci; -0.70 ± 0.20 W m -2 ). The associated global annual-mean surface air temperature (SAT) change ΔT is -0.64 ± 0.16 K with the largest reduction in the Arctic regions where the shortwave REaci is strong. Associated with the cooling, the Arctic sea ice is increased, which acts to reamplify the Arctic cooling through a positive ice-albedo feedback. The fast response (irrelevant to ΔT) tends to decrease surface latent heat flux into atmosphere in the tropics to balance strong atmospheric fire black carbon absorption, which reduces the precipitation in the tropical land regions (southern Africa and South America). The climate feedback processes (associated with ΔT) lead to a significant surface latent heat flux reduction over global ocean areas, which could explain most (~80%) of the global precipitation reduction. The precipitation significantly decreases in deep tropical regions (5°N) but increases in the Southern Hemisphere tropical ocean, which is associated with the southward shift of the intertropical convergence zone and the weakening of Southern Hemisphere Hadley cell. Such changes could partly compensate the interhemispheric temperature asymmetry induced by boreal forest fire aerosol indirect effects, through intensifying the cross-equator atmospheric heat transport.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Role of Atmospheric Noise in Decadal SST Variability

Abstract A substantial role for atmospheric noise in simulations of decadal internal variability of SST is demonstrated by a comparison of a multicentury climate model control and a corresponding interactive ensemble (IE) simulation. The IE is designed to reduce atmospheric noise in the heat flux, wind stress, and freshwater flux at the air–sea interface. This comparison suggests that nearly all SST variability on decadal time scales is forced by internal atmospheric variability. The results are examined to determine the relative roles of atmospheric surface heat flux noise and ocean dynamics in the decadal volume-averaged heat budget of the upper ocean. The regional heat budgets in two regions, the South Pacific and the midlatitude North Atlantic, show the net atmospheric surface heat flux to be approximately in equilibrium with the ocean dynamics forcing. The IE and control results are used in the equilibrium heat budget approximation to infer the atmospheric heat flux response to SST, as well as the time series of the control atmospheric noise surface heat flux and ocean dynamics forcings for several regions. The South Pacific region SST is found to be primarily forced by the atmospheric noise surface heat flux and the North Atlantic region SST is forced by the ocean dynamics. Similar strengths for the atmospheric heat flux noise and ocean dynamics forcing, with an interdecadal atmospheric heat flux noise time scale and a centennial ocean dynamics time scale, are found for an Atlantic multidecadal variability region SST.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2020

Reel-to-reel exfoliation and processing of second generation superconductors

The substrate and buffer layers, of either one-sided or two-sided superconducting tape, are separated from the YCBO layer(s) of the tape by a combined action of radiative or inductive heat and mechanical force via a reel-to-reel manufacturing process. The exfoliation process may also utilize an air blade(s) to facilitate the separation of the layers of the tape.

Solovyov, Vyacheslav↗
DOE OSTI2026

Force-triggered, Bio-based, Sealants for Prefabricated Building Components: Towards Improved Efficiency, Performance and Sustainability

The prefabricated building construction industry has made extensive progress in expediting the manufacture of prefabricated components at offsite plants. However, this progress has not translated to the assembly of the prefabricated components at the construction site. Case in point, sealing the joints between components to prevent air leaks requires the manual application of tape, caulk, or spray foam at the jobsite, and performance is highly dependent on the skills of the installer. To reduce assembly time and improve the airtightness and waterproofness of prefabricated components, we developed a sealant that can be installed at the plant and have its curing reaction triggered at the jobsite. Additionally, we used this opportunity to explore the use of bio-based feedstocks that are abundant and not used for food. We evaluated a series of force-triggered, bio-based, high strength, and fast curing sealants, consisting of a one-part heterogeneous system. These sealants are derived from formulations with ≥80% of bio-based components, consisting of a cardanol derived diepoxy that is microencapsulated in a polymer shell and embedded in a cardanol derived amine curing agent. The microcapsule shell allows separation of the reactive species in the one-part sealant allowing a fast-curing system to remain unreacted until the right trigger is applied. When the microcapsules are activated and broken by force, the highly reactive species mix and cure, exhibiting peel strengths up to 143 ppi. The open-air shelf stability of the sealant complexes was demonstrated by peel strength values of ~16 ppi when triggering the curing reaction even after being exposed for 8 months to open air and humidity. The successful on-demand triggering of curing reactions and the shelf stability provide efficacy of these force-triggered sealants for installation on prefabricated components, storage for months prior to delivery, and assembly at the jobsite. These force-triggered bio-based sealants for prefabricated buildings could result in lower installation time and cost as well as better performance than tapes and caulks at the jobsite.

Cortes Guzman, Karen [ORNL] (ORCID:000000028793468↗
DOE OSTI2024

Understanding aerosol–cloud interactions using a single-column model for a cold-air outbreak case during the ACTIVATE campaign

Marine boundary layer clouds play a critical role in Earth's energy balance. Their microphysical and radiative properties are highly impacted by ambient aerosols and dynamic forcings. In this study, we evaluate the representation of these clouds and related aerosol–cloud interaction processes in the single-column version of the E3SM climate model (SCM) against field measurements collected during the NASA ACTIVATE campaign over the western North Atlantic, as well as intercompare results with high-resolution process level models. We show that E3SM SCM reproduces the macrophysical properties of post-frontal boundary layer clouds in a cold-air outbreak (CAO) case well. However, it generates fewer but larger cloud droplets compared to aircraft measurements. Further sensitivity tests show that the underestimation of both aerosol number concentration and vertical velocity variance contributes to this bias. Aerosol–cloud interactions are examined by perturbing prescribed aerosol properties in E3SM SCM with fixed dynamics. Higher aerosol number concentration or hygroscopicity leads to more numerous but smaller cloud droplets, resulting in a stronger cooling via shortwave cloud forcing. This apparent Twomey effect is consistent with prior climate model studies. The cloud liquid water path shows a weakly positive relation with cloud droplet number concentration due to precipitation suppression. This weak aerosol effect on cloud macrophysics may be attributed to the dominant impact of strong dynamical forcing associated with the CAO. Our findings indicate that the SCM framework is a key tool to bridge the gap between climate models, process level models, and field observations to facilitate process level understanding.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Polydiallylammonium-Polysulfone Multiblock Copolymers for Moisture-Swing Direct Air Capture of Carbon Dioxide

Polysulfones are an important class of materials for a variety of applications due to their excellent strength and thermal stability. Quaternary ammonium polymers are also useful materials due to their ion exchange properties, and such materials with alkaline counterions have been used to capture carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) from ambient air through a moisture-driven mechanism. Herein, we design sulfone-based multiblock copolymers containing ammonium functionalities and demonstrate their potential for CO 2 capture. Specifically, a series of multiblock copolymers containing both polydiallyldimethylammonium (PDADMA) and polysulfone (PSf) blocks were synthesized. PSf blocks provide mechanical integrity, while the PDADMA blocks enable the direct air capture of CO 2 . Multiblock copolymers were synthesized at high yield, and PDADMA(OH)-PSf copolymer films with good flexibility and strength were formed with IECs of 424 μmol/g (17 mol % PDADMA(OH)), 1407 μmol/g (44 mol % PDADMA(OH)), and 1726 μmol/g (50 mol % PDADMA(OH)). Thermogravimetric analysis was used to determine that all films are thermally stable up to 345 °C. Differential scanning calorimetry revealed that the 17 and 44 mol % functionalized PDADMA(OH)-PSf multiblock copolymers showed one T g at 185 °C and 50 mol % PDADMA(OH)-PSf polymer showed a T g at 183 °C and a second T g at 16 °C. Atomic force microscopy showed that the multiblock polymers exhibit disordered phase separation. Furthermore, the copolymer materials displayed moisture-swing direct air capture of CO 2 , opening up pathways to utilize polymer architecture and chemistry to tailor the properties of promising sorbents.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Scaling Law for Cloud-Rise Velocity vs. Scaled Height of Burst (SHOB)

The shockwave produced by a nuclear detonation leaves a low-density region in the vicinity of air zero (i.e., the point of detonation). As the shockwave degenerates into an acoustic wave, the buoyant force takes over and causes the low-density region to begin to rise at speeds that can reach as high as ~200-300 mph. The objective of this project was to find out if this initial cloud rise followed any scaling law, by stimulating a cloud rise for a 1 kiloton (kt) detonation and determining if a correlation existed between the scaled-height-of-burst (SHOB) and the scaled-cloud-rise velocity.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Impact of US SO 2 Emission Reductions Between 1970 and 2010 on Seasonal Sulfate Aerosol Burden and Radiative Forcing Over the North Atlantic

Sulfate burden over the North Atlantic Ocean (NATL) exhibits strong seasonality despite no seasonality in anthropogenic sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) emissions. However, the seasonality of sulfate aerosols over NATL has decreased since 1970, likely due to a reduction in the United States (US) SO 2 emissions following the Clean Air Act of 1970. We performed atmospheric chemistry and transport simulations to assess the impact of changing US SO 2 emissions between 1970 and 2010 on NATL sulfate burden and radiative forcing. United States SO 2 emission reductions weakened the seasonality in NATL sulfate burden by ∼17%, primarily due to a decrease in chemical production and transport in summer. These emission reductions caused a summertime radiative forcing (∼2 W m −2 ) twice as large as the wintertime forcing. Our findings highlight the complex, season-dependent responses of sulfate burden and radiative effects to regional emission changes.

North Atlantic↗
DOE OSTI2024

A multiphase flow model of water droplets dielectrophoretic-induced air dehumidification phenomena

Air humidity in indoor spaces plays a critical role in human comfort and health. Dehumidification systems are used for building humidity controls, but they can take significant energy consumption, especially in geographic locations with high outdoor humidity and warm climates. Consequently, there is a growing demand for innovative dehumidification processes that consume minimal energy. Dielectrophoretic air dehumidification represents one such promising approach. However, it has not garnered significant attention due to the absence of engineering models and simulation tools capable of evaluating its performance and limitations at large-scale airflows. A new numerical multiphase CFD model, which is also experimentally validated, is developed in a customized Reacting Foam solver based on OpenFOAM® version 9. The newly developed model seeks to decrease substantial energy consumption and lower costs by leveraging the dielectrophoretic phenomenon to regulate moisture levels in the air. The solver integrates a hybrid Eulerian-Lagrangian framework to track the droplet's trajectory and growth rate while solving the continuum equations for the moist air. An electrospray produces electrically charged droplets, which grow during their in-flight trajectories as water vapor condenses onto their surfaces. The role of electrostatic forces in promoting vapor condensation within a high-gradient electrical field is investigated, and the dielectrophoretic vapor nucleation process on charged water droplets is discussed. The CFD model was validated against results from the literature and from proof-of-concept experiments conducted by the authors, which showed a 2 % air dehumidification with a single electrospray and airflow rate of 5 cubic feet per minute. The simulation results indicated that augmenting the number of electrically charged spray droplets increased the dehumidification of the air to 25 %. The initial mean droplet diameter, the orientation of the injector and relative humidity significantly influence the assessment of dehumidification. As a result, scaling up this approach to larger airflow volumes is identified as a potential future research direction.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Assembly of Arbitrary Designer Heterostructures with Atomically Clean Interfaces

Van der Waals heterostructures are an excellent platform for studying intriguing interface phenomena, such as moiré and proximity effects. Many of these phenomena occurring in such heterostructures' interfaces and surfaces have so far been hampered because of their high sensitivity to disorder and interface contamination. Here, it reports a dry polymer-based assembly technique to fabricate arbitrary designer van der Waals heterostructures with atomically clean surfaces. The key features of the suspended dry pick-up and flip-over assembly technique are: 1) the heterostructure surface never comes into contact with polymers, 2) the assemble is entirely solvent-free, 3) it is entirely performed in a glovebox, and 4) it only requires temperatures below 130 °C. By performing ambient atomic force microscopy and atomically-resolved scanning tunneling microscopy on example heterostructures, it demonstrates the fabrication of air-sensitive heterostructures with ultra-clean interfaces and surfaces. It envisions that, due to the avoidance of polymer melting, this technique is potentially compatible with heterostructure assembly under ultra-high vacuum conditions, which promises ultimate heterostructure quality.

2D materials↗
DOE OSTI2023

Atomic force microscopy and scanning electron microscopy characterization of the controlling of surface morphology of epoxy‐amine‐cured spin‐coated films

Abstract Atomic force microscopy (AFM) was successfully used to study spin‐coated, amine‐cured epoxy film microstructure and morphology. The air‐epoxy and epoxy‐substrate interfaces were examined using tapping‐mode height and phase imaging AFM. The impact of relative humidity on the morphology and microstructure of the surfaces was determined. AFM was able to elucidate the changes on the surface as relative humidity during processing increased. It was observed that large nodular formations formed on the epoxy surface expose to the air but not epoxy surface formed on the substrate in addition to varying regions of more or less compliant structures, which was attributed to carbamate formation caused by the amine curing agent reaction with atmospheric CO 2 . Scanning electron microscopy (SEM) was used to further elucidate interface and interphase morphology of spin‐coated epoxies. Experimentation also demonstrated that post‐curing above the glass transition did not change the morphology structure, suggesting surface structures are “locked‐in.” SEM was used to further elucidate how the interface and interphase change with changing environmental conditions at both the air‐epoxy and epoxy‐substrate interface/interphases, including the impact of atmospheric CO 2 on Marangoni cell formation.

Shenk, Timothy M.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Sensitivity of Arctic Surface Temperature to Including a Comprehensive Ocean Interior Reflectance to the Ocean Surface Albedo Within the Fully Coupled CESM2

Abstract Almost all current climate models simplify the ocean surface albedo (OSA) by assuming the reflected solar energy without the ocean interior contribution. In this study, an improved ocean surface albedo scheme is incorporated into the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) to assess the sensitivity of Arctic surface temperature to including ocean interior reflectance to the OSA. Fully coupled CESM2 simulations with and without ocean interior reflectance are subsequently performed, we focus on the analysis of Arctic surface temperature responses. Incorporating ocean interior reflectance increases absorbed solar radiation and warms the ocean, enhancing seasonal heat storage and release across the Arctic Ocean, and increasing sea ice reduction and positive climate feedbacks that elevates Arctic surface temperature. Seasonal variations in air‐surface temperature differences induce changes in turbulent heat flux patterns, concurrently modifying dynamic advection and moisture processes that affect boundary layer humidity and low clouds, especially in winter. Based on partitioning physical processes in the thermodynamic energy equation, surface air warming is induced primarily through positive heating anomalies of vertical advection, latent heat release, and longwave radiative forcing. Through an examination of the surface energy budget, skin temperature warming is driven predominantly by increased downward longwave radiation, positive surface albedo feedback in summer, and increased conductive heat transport from the ocean particularly in winter. Significant effects of ocean interior reflectance on the Arctic Ocean, including sea surface warming and sea ice reduction, justify the importance of ocean interior reflectance in climate models for better understanding of ongoing Arctic climate changes.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2023

Characterization of Annealing-Induced Phase Segregation in Composite Silicon Anodes for Li-ion Batteries

Silicon (Si) anodes present a promising alternative to graphite anodes for lithium-ion batteries (LIBs), as Si has a greater specific capacity. However, one major constraint is the volumetric change of Si during lithiation that results in an unstable solid-electrolyte interphase (SEI), so Si-containing electrodes require the use of various strategies to mitigate these effects and improve performance. One such solution is the use of Si nanoparticles (NPs) that maximize the surface area to volume ratio. Here, we discuss electrodes made with Si NPs treated with polyethylene oxide (PEO) (for improving dispersion during processing), conductive carbon NPs, and P84 polyimide binder which shows significant impacts of annealing treatment on improvements of active material utilization, first cycle efficiency, and capacity retention with extensive cycling . We used air-free argon ion polishing to create electrode cross sections and imaged through the electrode thickness using atomic force microscopy (AFM)-based nano-electrical characterization of scanning spreading resistance microscopy (SSRM), nano-mechanical characterizations of contact resonance and force volume (CR-FV), and scanning electron microscopy-based energy dispersive x-ray spectroscopy (SEM-EDS). Results show that the Si and conductive carbon segregate into phases with a distinctive carbon-rich banded morphology that surrounds the Si-rich phase during annealing. In pristine electrodes, the carbon- and SEI-rich bands exhibit a higher electronic conductivity and a lower elastic modulus than the Si active material phase. These structures, as well as distinct electronic and mechanical properties, remain during cycling, suggesting an improvement of electrical conduction pathways and a mechanical strain buffer for active Si material expansion during cycling. This phase separation may be a major factor in the improvement seen in electrochemical performance due to annealing. Additionally, our nm-scale and multi-mode characterizations provide a novel route for understanding and improving energy storage devices, which is advantageous due to the highly inhomogeneous of composite electrodes in nm-mm scales.

ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Electronic interactions and stability issues at the copper-graphene interface in air and in alkaline solution under electrochemical control

A micro-electrochemical cell is sealed with a polymer-free single-layer graphene (SLG) membrane to monitor the stability of Cu nanoparticles (NPs) attached to SLG, as well as the interfacial electronic interactions between Cu NPs and SLG both in air and in a mildly alkaline aqueous solution under electrochemical control. A combination of techniques, including in-situ Kelvin probe force microscopy (KPFM) and ex-situ electron microscopy, are applied. When Cu NPs are metallic at cathodic potentials, there is a relatively bias-independent offset in the SLG work function due to charge transfer at the Cu-SLG contact. When Cu NPs are oxidized at anodic potentials, on the other hand, the work function of SLG also depends on the applied bias in a quasi-linear fashion due to electrochemical gating, in addition to charge transfer at the CuOx-SLG contact. Furthermore, Cu NPs were found to oxidize and detach from SLG when kept under anodic potentials for a few hours, whereas they remain adhered to SLG at cathodic potentials. This is attributed to water intercalation at the CuO-SLG interface associated with the enhanced hydrophilicity of positively polarized graphene, as supported by the absence of Cu detachment following oxidation by galvanic corrosion in air.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Causes and evolution of winter polynyas north of Greenland

During the 42-year period (1979–2020) of satellite measurements, four major winter (December–March) polynyas have been observed north of Greenland: one in December 1986 and three in the last decade, i.e., February of 2011, 2017, and 2018. The 2018 polynya was unparalleled in its magnitude and duration compared to the three previous events. Given the apparent recent increase in the occurrence of these extreme events, this study aims to examine their evolution and causality, in terms of forced versus natural variability. The limited weather station and remotely sensed sea ice data are analyzed combining with output from the fully coupled Regional Arctic System Model (RASM), including one hindcast and two ensemble simulations. We found that neither the accompanying anomalous warm surface air intrusion nor the ocean below had an impact (i.e., no significant ice melting) on the evolution of the observed winter open-water episodes in the region. Instead, the extreme atmospheric wind forcing resulted in greater sea ice deformation and transport offshore, accounting for the majority of sea ice loss in all four polynyas. Our analysis suggests that strong southerly winds (i.e., northward wind with speeds greater than 10 m s –1 ) blowing persistently over the study region for at least 2 d or more were required over the study region to mechanically redistribute some of the thickest Arctic sea ice out of the region and thus to create open-water areas (i.e., a latent heat polynya). To assess the role of internal variability versus external forcing of such events, we carried out and examined results from the two RASM ensembles dynamically downscaled with output from the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Decadal Prediction Large Ensemble (DPLE) simulations. Out of 100 winters in each of the two ensembles (initialized 30 years apart: one in December 1985 and another in December 2015), 17 and 16 winter polynyas were produced north of Greenland, respectively. The frequency of polynya occurrence had no apparent sensitivity to the initial sea ice thickness in the study area pointing to internal variability of atmospheric forcing as a dominant cause of winter polynyas north of Greenland. We assert that dynamical downscaling using a high-resolution regional climate model offers a robust tool for process-level examination in space and time, synthesis with limited observations, and probabilistic forecasts of Arctic events, such as the ones being investigated here and elsewhere.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗