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DOE OSTI2025

Long-term hydro-economic analysis tool for evaluating global groundwater cost and supply: Superwell v1.1

Abstract. Groundwater plays a key role in meeting water demands, supplying over 40 % of irrigation water globally, with this role likely to grow as water demands and surface water variability increase. A better understanding of the future role of groundwater in meeting sectoral demands requires an integrated hydro-economic evaluation of its cost and availability. Yet substantial gaps remain in our knowledge and modeling capabilities related to groundwater availability, recharge, feasible locations for extraction, extractable volumes, and associated extraction costs, which are essential for large-scale analyses of integrated human–water system scenarios, particularly at the global scale. To address these needs, we developed Superwell, a physics-based groundwater extraction and cost accounting model that operates at sub-annual temporal and at the coarsest 0.5° (≈50 km × 50 km) gridded spatial resolution with global coverage. The model produces location-specific groundwater supply–cost curves that provide the levelized cost to access different quantities of available groundwater. The inputs to Superwell include recent high-resolution hydrogeologic datasets of permeability, porosity, aquifer thickness, depth to water table, recharge, and hydrogeological complexity zones. It also accounts for well capital and maintenance costs, as well as the energy costs required to lift water to the surface. The model employs a Theis-based scheme coupled with an amortization-based cost accounting formulation to simulate groundwater extraction and quantify the cost of groundwater pumping. The result is a spatiotemporally flexible, physically realistic, economics-based model that produces groundwater supply–cost curves. We show examples of these supply–cost curves and the insights that can be derived from them across a set of scenarios designed to explore model outcomes. The supply–cost curves produced by the model show that most (90 %) nonrenewable groundwater in storage globally is extractable at costs lower than USD 0.57 m−3, while half of the volume remains extractable at under USD 0.108 m−3. The global unit cost is estimated to range from a minimum of USD 0.004 m−3 to a maximum of USD 3.971 m−3. We also demonstrate and discuss examples of how these cost curves could be used by linking Superwell's outputs with other models to explore coupled human–environmental system challenges, such as water resources planning and management, or broader analyses of multisectoral feedbacks.

Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM)↗

DOE OSTI2020

Stochastic Analysis for Long Term Capital Structures, Systems, and Components Refurbishment and Replacement

As commercial Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) pursue extended plant operation in the form of Second License Renewal (SLR), opportunities exist for these plants to provide capital investments to ensure long-term safe and economic performance. At the current time, several utilities have announced an intention to pursue extended operation for one or more of their NPPs via SLR . The goal of this research is to develop a risk-informed approach to evaluate and prioritize plant capital investments made in preparation for, and during the period of, extended plant operations to support decisions for NPP operations. Since the capital investments are influenced by various factors, such as markets, safety and regulatory, the decision-making process of NPP operations should take into account relevant factors for balancing risks, costs and profits. The traditional method of capital budgeting is based on the priority list of candidate projects using economic measures such as benefit-investment ratio, net present value (NPV) and internal rate of return. In the literatures, the problem of capital budgeting or the variant can be represented by an appropriate knapsack problem. The knapsack approach to capital budgeting takes as input as investment, along with the cost and profit of each project. The objective of capital budgeting is to find the combination of the binary decisions for every investment such that the overall profit is as large as possible. The output is a collection of projects to be carried out, and we refer this selected collection of projects as a project portfolio. One limitation of traditional optimization models for capital budgeting is that they do not account for risk/uncertainty in profit and cost streams associated with individual projects, they do not account for risk in resource availability in future years [1,2,3]. Projects can incur cost over-runs, especially when projects are large, performed infrequently, and when there is risk regarding technical viability, external contractors, and/or suppliers of requisite parts and materials. Occasionally, projects are performed ahead of schedule and with cost savings. Planned budgets for capital improvements can be cut and key personnel may be lost. Or, there may be surprise windfalls in budgets for maintenance activities due to decreased costs for “unplanned” maintenance. In these cases, how should we resolve capital budgeting when we have risk forecasts for costs, profits and budgets? One approach we proposed in this summary is to re-solve the optimization models based on assumed statistical distributions of given parameters. If these distributions were not available, a two-stage stochastic optimization approach can be used to provide priority lists to decision-makers to support better risk-informed decisions [4, 5]. In this summary, we will only focus on the first approach.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Is GW170817 a Multimessenger Neutron Star-Primordial Black Hole Merger?

We investigate the possibility of the gravitational-wave event GW170817 being a light, solar-mass black hole (BH) - neutron star (NS) merger. We explore two exotic scenarios involving primordial black holes (PBH) that could produce such an event, taking into account available observational information on NGC 4993. First, we entertain the possibility of dynamical NS-PBH binary formation where a solar-mass PBH and a NS form a binary through gravitational interaction. We find that while dynamical NS-PBH formation could account for the GW170817 event, the rate is highly dependent on unknown density contrast factors and could potentially be affected by galaxy mergers. We also find that PBH-PBH binaries would likely have a larger merger rate, assuming the density contrast boost factor of an order similar to the NS-PBH case. These exotic merger formations could provide new channels to account for the volumetric rate of compact-object mergers reported by LIGO/Virgo. Secondly, we consider the case where one of the NS's in a binary NS system is imploded by a microscopic PBH. We find that the predicted rate for NS implosion into a BH is very small, at least for the specific environment of NGC 4993. We point out that similar existing (e.g. GW190425 and GW190814) and future observations will shed additional light on these scenarios.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2020

INTEGRATION OF FLEX EQUIPMENT AND OPERATOR ACTIONS IN PLANT FORCE-ON-FORCE MODELS WITH DYNAMIC RISK ASSESSMENT

The overall operation and maintenance cost to protect nuclear power plants accounts for approximately 7% of the total cost of power generation, with labor accounting for half of this cost. In the current research, from interaction with utilities and other stakeholders, it was determined that physical security forces account for nearly 20% of the entire workforce at several nuclear power plants. Labor costs continue to rise in the U.S., so any measures to reduce the cost of operating a nuclear power plant will need to include a reduction in labor. The physical security pathway within the DOE’s Light Water Reactor Sustainability program aims to lower the cost of physical security through directed research into modeling and simulation, application of advanced sensors or deployment of advanced weapons. This report presents a modeling and simulation framework for integrating Diverse and Flexible Mitigation Capability (FLEX) portable equipment performance with Force on Force models of a plant’s physical security posture. The generic framework is described in detail, followed by a case study of modeling an adversarial attack aimed at causing a radiological release by sabotaging the plant’s power supply and its ultimate heat sink capabilities at a hypothetical nuclear power plant. Two different FLEX deployment strategies, series and parallel, are modeled with distinct timelines. The results of the adversarial attack modeled in a commercial Force on Force tool are integrated with the FLEX deployment model in INL’s dynamic modeling tool EMRALD. Monte Carlo simulation is used to model the distribution of the timeline in FLEX deployment strategies. The results demonstrate that, even in the extreme case of a successful adversarial attack, deployment of FLEX equipment can result in a significantly high likelihood of preventing radiological release. The modeling and simulation framework integrating FLEX equipment with Force on Force models enables the nuclear power plants to credit FLEX portable equipment in the plant security posture, resulting in an efficient and optimized physical security.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Demonstrate Improved Ag Diffusion and Describe the Basis for Pd Penetration Modeling in SiC

In past work, an effective diffusivity coefficient was determined for Ag transport through the silicon carbide layer of a tristructural isotropic fuel particle. The effective diffusivity coefficient accounts for the microstructure of the silicon carbide and includes both bulk diffusion and grain boundary diffusion of Ag. In this report, the model has been improved by accounting for the enhanced concentration of vacancies in the bulk due to irradiation, which substantially influence bulk diffusivity at low temperatures. To improve the BISON model and make it fission rate dependent, effective diffusivity calculations have been performed that incorporate the radiation modified bulk diffusivity. The microstructure and irradiation-dependent effective diffusivity has also been implemented into BISON, and its predictions for Ag release from tristructural isotropic fuel have been successfully compared to AGR-1 post irradiation measurements. Moreover, a new feature has been developed in the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) to account for different grain boundary types. The Ag diffusivity in 5 (210)/[001] grain boundaries has been computed and was found to be greater than in random high-angle grain boundaries. The presence of the fission product Pd can also have an important effect on the properties of the silicon carbide layer in tristructural isotropic particles. The penetration of Pd into the silicon carbide layer causes a corrosion reaction that can lead to the failure of the silicon carbide layer; however, this corrosion reaction is not well understood. To enable an improved understanding of the mechanism, ab-initio molecular dynamics simulations of Pd interaction with bulk silicon carbide have been performed. The improved understanding of the reaction will form a basis for future improvements to the BISON’s Pd penetration failure model

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Equitable Employment Access Assessed Through the Mobility Energy Productivity (MEP) Metric

This paper examines commuting options for an underserved neighborhood in Columbus, Ohio to a major employment center. The analysis is based on an emerging metric called the Mobility Energy Productivity (MEP) metric developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) on behalf the Department of Energy (DOE). The purpose of the analysis is twofold. The first is to quantify relative attractiveness of commute modes between the two locations, using a perspective that includes travel time, energy and cost, while providing an equity lens to compare commute options between privately owned vehicles and pooled transportation options. The second objective is to apply MEP in a specific origin-destination (O-D) scenario, whereas previously it has been used primarily as an aggregate metropolitan-wide statistical measure. In so doing, parameters in MEP are further customized and the methodology is refined to account for unique aspects of this case study. Four commute options between the neighborhood and the industry employment based are analyzed: drive alone option, public transit express bus (historical), public transit normal route (current), and a proposed shuttle specific to the O-D pair. This analysis identified issues applying MEP that required further customization: (1) deprecation functions customized to modes other than driving, (2) accounting for first-mile last-mile travel times with transit, (3) accounting for transit frequency without resorting to full simulation. The results provide quantitative insights on the employment accessibility between these two locations, both across modes, and as equity of job accessibility for those who can and cannot operate a personal vehicle.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Efficient Modeling of Floating Wind Arrays Including Current Loads and Seabed Bathymetry: Preprint

Capabilities for modeling the effects of seabed bathymetry and current drag loads on a floating wind farm are now available in an open-source model for quasi-static analysis. In this model, mooring lines and dynamic cables are represented by a quasistatic solver that can quickly represent complex mooring/cabling arrangements and arrays of floating bodies. To account for seabed bathymetry, we expand the model to include a surface mesh that captures changes in water depth over a rectangular grid. We formulate modifications to the catenary equations that capture a mooring line's profile and tensions when contacting a slope seabed. To account for current drag loads on mooring lines and dynamic cables, we formulate a novel technique that rotates the reference frame so that the vector sum of the the weight and the current force are used in the catenary equations, while accounting for the seabed orientation. To complete the system, current drag loads on floating substructures are handled by inclusion of strip-theory drag calculations. These new capabilities are verified by comparing with results from the established offshore dynamics models MoorDyn and OrcaFlex in equivalent steady-state scenarios. The results show very good agreement for both sloped seabeds and current loads. With computation times of the quasi-static model typically under one second, the model additions are a useful capability toward rapidly evaluating a floating wind array's response to environmental loads under realistic site conditions.

bathymetry↗

DOE OSTI2020

A Survey of Multizone Airflow Simulation Software

H-Canyon simulates the building and process ventilation to ensure positive contamination control for any modifications as well as evaluating off-normal conditions. Simulations can also be used to identify air quality of personnel occupied areas. The models can be classified into two groups, single and multi-zone models. As the name states, a single zone model assumes that the building can be described by a single, well-mixed zone. Whereas large buildings have structures that must be described as multizone. Multizone airflow models deal with the difficulty of flows in a building by distinguishing the effects of internal flow restrictions. Several models have been developed that take internal partitions into account. CONTAM (currently used) is a multizone airflow program created by NIST to determine airflows including infiltration, exfiltration, wind pressures acting outside the building, buoyancy effects caused by the indoor and outdoor air temperature difference. COMIS is a multizone air infiltration, ventilation, and contaminant transport model that was developed at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. COMIS deals with applied pressure distribution, airflow components, HVAC systems, schedules, and contaminant transport. EnergyPlus is designed by DOE. It supports flexible component level configuration of HVAC models and simulates sub-hourly time steps to control fast dynamic systems. The program features include providing accurate environmental performance data including energy consumption and carbon emissions, and reporting solar gains on surfaces. Heavent is used to model industrial ventilation systems to control airborne contaminants. It's designed based on the American Conference of Governmental Industrial Hygienists (ACGIH) Ventilation manual. DesignBuilder is the most recognized and advanced user interface to EnergyPlus. It gives access to all of the most frequently required simulation capabilities covering building fabric, thermal mass, glazing, shading renewables, and HVAC analysis. The objective of this study is to identify all relevant software available including commercially licensed, freely licensed, and open source, that can be used to simulate large, complex process facility ventilation systems. All discovered software tools are evaluated for salient features and compared to the software tool currently used to simulate the H-Canyon ventilation system. The design criteria of a ventilation system has two basic requirements: Supplying fresh air for the occupants and changing the air in the room sufficiently; therefore, the smells, fumes, and contaminants will be removed. In this study, first, whether the software simulates airflow (infiltration, natural ventilation, and interzonal) or considers them to be inputs is discussed. Second, if indoor contaminant levels are considered; and finally suggestions on how airflow analysis can be more appropriately accounted for when performing airflow simulation of a building. All of the airflow software reviewed for this study can account for constant infiltration and natural ventilation rates that are not affected by changes in indoor and outdoor conditions. Modelling infiltration in EnergyPlus or DesignBuilder are applicable for small buildings and not appropriate for larger buildings like the H-Canyon. The effect of wind on external pressures, infiltration, and natural and mechanical ventilation, can also be calculated using all of these software. These programs have control options to switch between natural to mechanical ventilation modes or both (hybrid). Interzonal airflow can be applied which means one zone can be specified to receive a fixed amount of air from another zone. The following ventilation modeling software is recommended for further testing: CONTAM, COMIS, Heavent. The next step in evaluating the software will consist of creating test facility simulations using evaluation copies of the software.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Contaminant Transport Modeling for Technology Evaluation and Long-Term Monitoring in the Tims Branch Testbed, SC - 20343

Studies conducted at U.S. DOE sites have shown the presence of heavy metals, radionuclides, and volatile organic compounds in surface water, groundwater, and soil as a result of nuclear activity in the Cold War era. Since the 1990's, innovative cleanup methods have been implemented in the Tims Branch watershed at Savannah River Site (SRS) to limit the contaminant flux to the stream that have reduced the contaminant concentrations to acceptable regulatory levels in the dissolved phase. A tin-based treatment which effectively eliminated all local anthropogenic mercury inputs to this ecosystem resulted in a known step function addition of inert tin oxide particles which now serve as a potential tracer for sedimentation and particle transport processes in the stream. The long-term effectiveness of this and other remediation techniques and the potential for remobilization of adsorbed contaminant in sediment during extreme hydrologic conditions however remains unclear. It is therefore important to understand not only the fate and transport of dissolved contaminants, but also the movement of sediment and the relevant interactions with dissolved contaminant. To narrow this knowledge gap, a study is being conducted using the Tims Branch watershed as a stream-scale ecosystem test-bed to identify the primary transport processes of major contaminants of concern (such as mercury, nickel and uranium) with an emphasis on interactions with sediment transport. This involves the development of a fully distributed hydrologic watershed model of the Tims Branch watershed to predict streamflow under extreme weather conditions, as well as the development of a comprehensive contaminant transport model that can properly account for coupled contaminant and sediment transport. Review of relevant research reports and peer-reviewed journals revealed that aside from advection-dispersion transport of dissolved contaminants, adsorption and desorption with suspended solids and bed sediment also play an important role in the transport of those contaminants of concern. To develop the fully distributed hydrologic watershed model, the MIKE SHE 2-dimensional (2D) land surface/3D groundwater model that simulates surface/subsurface hydrologic processes (such as overland flow, evapotranspiration, and infiltration) was coupled with a 1D streamflow model that accounts for stream water hydraulics (such as hydraulic structures, cross-sections, and network). To model contaminant transport, the MIKE 11 streamflow component was coupled with the MIKE 11 AD module that simulates solute transport through advection and dispersion, and MIKE ECO Lab module that accounts for both sediment transport and interactions with dissolved contaminant. At this stage, the development and optimization of the fully distributed hydrologic model has been completed, achieving satisfactory statistical results between observed and predicted discharge as indicated by a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.039 cms and a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSE) of 0.764. The ongoing development of the contaminant transport model has also yielded realistic results from preliminary tests. Results from this study are a key to evaluating the effectiveness of tin (II)-based mercury treatment of wetlands at the SRS site, and are also relevant to evaluating the potential of using this type of novel remediation technology in other mercury-contaminated stream systems. Knowledge acquired from this research will also support interpretation of historical data on the trends of contaminant concentration distribution in Tims Branch, particularly considering the effect of extreme hydrological events on the stream flow and pollutant transport. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2024

A Novel Workflow for Coupled Simulation of Hydraulic Stimulation with Simultaneous Injection of Proppant

Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) are located in impermeable host rock. Therefore, to achieve promising circulation, hydraulic stimulation is a key factor. Stimulation involves injecting a combination of fluids and proppant particles into existing fractures under high pressure. The effectiveness of stimulation depends on a variety of different factors, including the pressurization scheme and the optimal choice of carrying fluid and proppant particles to be used. For example, high-density particles can settle out of the injected slurry quickly, whereas lighter particles as well as a dense carrying fluid allow for a long transport into the reservoir. A numerical tool is therefore essential to take all these factors into account and to make robust predictions about the performance of the hydraulic stimulation. We present a novel computational application for coupled numerical simulation of hydraulic stimulation with concurrent injection of proppant in a fractured geothermal reservoir. This application is based on the open-source MOOSE framework that has been enriched with a set of equations to account for the circulation of proppant-laden slurries. It accounts for both the fluid and proppant components of the mixture, as well as particle-driven processes that include gravity settling, particle-particle interactions, and strong density and viscosity contrasts. A particular challenge is the mutual coupling with fracture mechanical processes in a propagating fracture using the FE code Defmod. Aperture and fluid pressure on one side and slurry density and viscosity changes on the other side interact and affect each other. Their basic understanding is therefore essential for the success of the stimulation. We compare our application to common numerical benchmark problems for both slurry flow and hydraulic stimulation.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Bayesian Framework for Bioburden Density Estimation in Planetary Protection

To comply with the international planetary protection policy set forth by the Committee on Space Research and NASA Agency level requirements, spacecraft destined to biologically sensitive planetary bodies have to minimize terrestrial biological contamination. Analysis, testing and inspection are the standard forward verification activities that are used to demonstrate compliance with the biological contamination requirements. For testing of spacecraft surface areas, a swab or wipe sample is collected from surfaces prior to last access and subsequently processed in the lab using NASA Approved Planetary Protection Methods for Culture Based Assays. Raw data resulting from this assay is then statistically treated employing a mathematical paradigm stemming from the 1970’s Viking Lander Project to generate the bioburden density and total microbial bioburden present. This standard approach arbitrarily accounts for error and provides an upper conservative bound as it reports the maximum number of spores estimated to be present on flight hardware surfaces. A bioburden density estimate factors in the following variables: the observed bioburden count, representative volume processed, sampling efficiencies. Notably, to account for error in the approach, a 0 observed count is arbitrarily changed to a count of 1 for each hardware grouping. The data generated by spacecraft bioburden verification campaigns in the past have resulted in <80% of wipes and <90% of swabs containing a bioburden count of 0. As such, having a robust and well documented statistical approach for dealing with the probability of low incident rates is necessary to be able to estimate spacecraft bioburden. Being able to statistically describe the bioburden distribution and associated confidence level is a gamechanger for the development of bioburden allocations during mission design and will allow for tighter management of risk throughout spacecraft build. Thus, Empirical Bayes statistical approach was evaluated to estimate the microbial bioburden on spacecraft to mitigate the aforementioned mathematical concerns and provide a probabilistic bioburden distribution of the flight hardware surface. For application of this approach to performing bioburden calculations, a range of non-informative prior assumptions on hardware surfaces are explored for Bayesian analyses while informative priors using posterior distributions from prior assays are utilized for Empirical Bayes analyses. Several non-informative priors are currently under investigation to assess fitness including use of these priors to serve as a foundation to build off of NASA specification values or a basis of risk to account for unknowns during the integration and testing process. Informative priors under consideration are generated using sampled bioburden values from hardware originating within like processing environments (e.g. vendor cleaning process or similar assembly process), temporal spacecraft status events as a prediction for hardware cleanliness of future samples, and heritage system bioburden actuals to predict allocation for subsequent missions. Informative priors and probabilistic bioburden distributions are then validated using data sets from the Mars Exploration Rover, Mars Science Laboratory, and InSight missions. Using Empirical Bayes approach to generate a probabilistic bioburden distribution as demonstrated through mission use cases provides a valid approach for use in the end-to-end requirements verification process.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Application of a Triple Bubbler Inside Molten Salt for Pyroprocessing Safeguards Purposes

The application of a triple bubbler system within molten salt environments, specifically a eutectic mixture of LiCl-KCl, is explored for nuclear safeguards purposes, focusing on nuclear material accountancy (NMA) and holdup accountancy in pyroprocessing techniques. Traditional holdup accountancy methods, which involve periodic sampling and lengthy lead times, are being supplemented by the development of actinide sensors using electrochemistry. However, these methods alone are insufficient to meet regulatory requirements set by agencies like NRC and IAEA. The triple bubbler device measures salt level, density, and surface tension simultaneously using three dip tubes of varying diameters and heights. This study investigates the accuracy and robustness of the triple bubbler in molten salt conditions at temperatures ranging from 450-550°C. The updated bubbler design, utilizing tantalum metal and larger tube geometry, demonstrated minimal plugging and maintained measurement accuracy within acceptable uncertainties: 0.611% for depth, 1.34% for density, and approximately 40% for surface tension. Results indicate that the triple bubbler system is effective for real-time, accurate measurements in pyroprocessing environments, making it a promising tool for ensuring compliance with nuclear safeguards and supporting nuclear non-proliferation efforts.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Dark and Bright Excitons in Halide Perovskite Nanoplatelets

Semiconductor nanoplatelets (NPLs), with their large exciton binding energy, narrow photoluminescence (PL), and absence of dielectric screening for photons emitted normal to the NPL surface, could be expected to become the fastest luminophores amongst all colloidal nanostructures. However, super-fast emission is suppressed by a dark (optically passive) exciton ground state, substantially split from a higher-lying bright (optically active) state. Here, the exciton fine structure in 2-8 monolayer (ML) thick Cs n - 1 Pb n Br 3n + 1 NPLs is revealed by merging temperature-resolved PL spectra and time-resolved PL decay with an effective mass model taking quantum confinement and dielectric confinement anisotropy into account. This approach exposes a thickness-dependent bright-dark exciton splitting reaching 32.3 meV for the 2 ML NPLs. The model also reveals a 5-16 meV splitting of the bright exciton states with transition dipoles polarized parallel and perpendicular to the NPL surfaces, the order of which is reversed for the thinnest NPLs, as confirmed by TR-PL measurements. Accordingly, the individual bright states must be taken into account, while the dark exciton state strongly affects the optical properties of the thinnest NPLs even at room temperature. Significantly, the derived model can be generalized for any isotropically or anisotropically confined nanostructure.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Quantification of High-Temperature Transition Al2O3 and Their Phase Transformations

High temperature exposure of ?-Al2O3 can lead to a series of polymorphic transformations, including the formation of ?-Al2O3 and ?-Al2O3. Quantification of the microstructure in the ?/?-Al2O3 formation range represents a formidable challenge as both phases accommodate a high degree of structural disorder. In this work, we explore the use of XRD recursive stacking formalism for quantification of high temperature transition aluminas. We formulate the recursive stacking methodology for modelling of disorder in ?-Al2O3 and twinning in ?-Al2O3 and show that explicitly accounting for the disorder is necessary to reliably model the XRD patterns of high temperature transition alumina. In the second part, we use the recursive stacking approach to study phase transformation during high temperature (1050 ºC) treatment. We show that the two different intergrowth modes of ?-Al2O3 have different transformation characteristics, and that a significant portion of ?-Al2O3 is stabilized with ?-Al2O3 even after prolonged high-temperature exposures. In discussions, we outline the limitation of the current XRD approach and discuss a possible multimodal XRD and NMR approach which can improve analysis of complex transition aluminas. This work was performed in the Wiley Environmental Molecular Sciences Laboratory (EMSL), a national scientific user facility sponsored by DOEs Office of Biological and Environmental Research and located at PNNL. The work was supported by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Office of Basic Energy Sciences, Division of Chemical Sciences, Geosciences, and Biosciences.

Kovarik, Libor↗

DOE OSTI2023

Quasi‐dynamic breathing model of the lung incorporating viscoelasticity of the lung tissue

Abstract We advanced a novel model to calculate viscoelastic lung compliance and airflow resistance in presence of mucus, accounting for the quasi‐linear viscoelastic stress–strain response of the parenchyma (alveoli) tissue. We adapted a continuum‐based numerical modeling approach for the lung, integrating the fluid mechanics of the airflow within individual generations of the bronchi and alveoli. The model accounts for elasticity of the deformable bronchioles, resistance to airflow due to the presence of mucus within the bronchioles, and subsequent mucus flow. Simulated quasi‐dynamic inhalation and expiration cycles were used to characterize the net compliance and resistance of the lung, considering the rheology of the mucus and viscoelastic properties of the parenchyma tissue. The structure and material properties of the lung were identified to have an important contribution to the lung compliance and airflow resistance. The secondary objective of this work was to assess whether a higher frequency and smaller volume of harmonic air flow rate compared to a normal ventilator breathing cycle enhanced mucus outflow. Results predict, lower mucus viscosity and higher excitation frequency of breathing are favorable for the flow of mucus up the bronchi tree, towards the trachea.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Phylogenetic structure of specialization: A new approach that integrates partner availability and phylogenetic diversity to quantify biotic specialization in ecological networks

Abstract Biotic specialization holds information about the assembly, evolution, and stability of biological communities. Partner availabilities can play an important role in enabling species interactions, where uneven partner availabilities can bias estimates of biotic specialization when using phylogenetic diversity indices. It is therefore important to account for partner availability when characterizing biotic specialization using phylogenies. We developed an index, phylogenetic structure of specialization (PSS), that avoids bias from uneven partner availabilities by uncoupling the null models for interaction frequency and phylogenetic distance. We incorporate the deviation between observed and random interaction frequencies as weights into the calculation of partner phylogenetic α‐diversity. To calculate the PSS index, we then compare observed partner phylogenetic α‐diversity to a null distribution generated by randomizing phylogenetic distances among the same number of partners. PSS quantifies the phylogenetic structure (i.e., clustered, overdispersed, or random) of the partners of a focal species. We show with simulations that the PSS index is not correlated with network properties, which allows comparisons across multiple systems. We also implemented PSS on empirical networks of host–parasite, avian seed‐dispersal, lichenized fungi–cyanobacteria, and hummingbird pollination interactions. Across these systems, a large proportion of taxa interact with phylogenetically random partners according to PSS, sometimes to a larger extent than detected with an existing method that does not account for partner availability. We also found that many taxa interact with phylogenetically clustered partners, while taxa with overdispersed partners were rare. We argue that species with phylogenetically overdispersed partners have often been misinterpreted as generalists when they should be considered specialists. Our results highlight the important role of randomness in shaping interaction networks, even in highly intimate symbioses, and provide a much‐needed quantitative framework to assess the role that evolutionary history and symbiotic specialization play in shaping patterns of biodiversity. PSS is available as an R package at https://github.com/cjpardodelahoz/pss .

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Predicting responses to climate change using a joint species, spatially dependent physiologically guided abundance model

Abstract Predicting the effects of warming temperatures on the abundance and distribution of organisms under future climate scenarios often requires extrapolating species–environment correlations to climatic conditions not currently experienced by a species, which can result in unrealistic predictions. For poikilotherms, incorporating species' thermal physiology to inform extrapolations under novel thermal conditions can result in more realistic predictions. Furthermore, models that incorporate species and spatial dependencies may improve predictions by capturing correlations present in ecological data that are not accounted for by predictor variables. Here, we present a joint species, spatially dependent physiologically guided abundance (jsPGA) model for predicting multispecies responses to climate warming. The jsPGA model uses a basis function approach to capture both species and spatial dependencies. We apply the jsPGA model to predict the response of eight fish species to projected climate warming in thousands of lakes in Minnesota, USA. By the end of the century, the cold‐adapted species was predicted to have high probabilities of extirpation across its current range—with 10% of lakes currently inhabited by this species having an extirpation probability >0.90. The remaining species had varying levels of predicted changes in abundance, reflecting differences in their thermal physiology. Though the model did not identify many strong species dependencies, the variation in estimated spatial dependence across species suggested that accounting for both dependencies was important for predicting the abundance of these fishes. The jsPGA model provides a new tool for predicting changes in the abundance, distribution, and extirpation probability of poikilotherms under novel thermal conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Elastic functional changepoint detection of climate impacts from localized sources

Detecting changepoints in functional data has become an important problem as interest in monitoring of climate phenomenon has increased, where the data is functional in nature. Here, the observed data often contains both amplitude (y-axis) and phase (x-axis) variability. If not accounted for properly, true changepoints may be undetected, and the estimated underlying mean change functions will be incorrect. In this article, an elastic functional changepoint method is developed which properly accounts for these types of variability. The method can detect amplitude and phase changepoints which current methods in the literature do not, as they focus solely on the amplitude changepoint. This method can easily be implemented using the functions directly or can be computed via functional principal component analysis to ease the computational burden. We apply the method and its nonelastic competitors to both simulated data and observed data to show its efficiency in handling data with phase variation with both amplitude and phase changepoints. We use the method to evaluate potential changes in stratospheric temperature due to the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippines in June 1991. Using an epidemic changepoint model, we find evidence of a increase in stratospheric temperature during a period that contains the immediate aftermath of Mt. Pinatubo, with most detected changepoints occurring in the tropics as expected.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗