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At least 343 records · Page 19
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

A scoping review of non-destructive testing (NDT) techniques in building performance diagnostic inspections

Understanding building envelope thermodynamics is an essential foundation of building sciences, mainly due to the envelope’s role as a boundary layer for exterior environments, as well as a container and regulator of internal microclimates. This paper presents a scoping literature review of select Non-destructive Testing (NDT) techniques for building envelope scanning and surveying for thermodynamic diagnostics. The investigation focuses specifically on reviewing six NDT techniques: Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR), Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR)/Laser Scanning, Thermography, Ultrasound, Close-Range Photogrammetry and Through Wall Imaging Radar (TWIR). The aim is to identify knowledge gaps in terms of their use in accurately characterizing envelope compositions for further integration in Building Energy Modeling (BEM). Each technique was evaluated according to set categories imbibed from the American Society of Heating, Refrigerating, and Air Conditioning Engineering (ASHRAE) Standard 211P that showcase the technique’s ability to extract various relevant information. A framework is then developed to inform users on how to use hybrid NDT-based workflows applied in building envelope energy audits. The study concludes by discussing possibilities of utilizing NDT in large-scale audit automation, BEM integration, and developing built environment policies focusing on increasing existing building performance through retrofitting design.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2017

Evaluation of energy savings potential of variable refrigerant flow (VRF) from variable air volume (VAV) in the U.S. climate locations

Variable refrigerant flow (VRF) systems are known for their high energy performance and thus can improve energy efficiency both in residential and commercial buildings. The energy savings potential of this system has been demonstrated in several studies by comparing the system performance with conventional HVAC systems such as rooftop variable air volume systems (RTU-VAV) and central chiller and boiler systems. This paper evaluates the performance of VRF and RTU-VAV systems in a simulation environment using widely-accepted whole building energy modeling software, EnergyPlus. A medium office prototype building model, developed by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), is used to assess the performance of VRF and RTU-VAV systems. Each system is placed in 16 different locations, representing all U.S. climate zones, to evaluate the performance variations. Both models are compliant with the minimum energy code requirements prescribed in ASHRAE standard 90.1-2010 — energy standard for buildings except low-rise residential buildings. Finally, a comparison study between the simulation results of VRF and RTU-VAV models is made to demonstrate energy savings potential of VRF systems. The simulation results show that the VRF systems would save around 15–42% and 18–33% for HVAC site and source energy uses compared to the RTU-VAV systems. In addition, calculated results for annual HVAC cost savings point out that hot and mild climates show higher percentage cost savings for the VRF systems than cold climates mainly due to the differences in electricity and gas use for heating sources.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2013

Revealing Occupancy Patterns in an Office Building through the Use of Occupancy Sensor Data

Energy simulation programs like DOE-2 and EnergyPlus are tools that have been proven to aid with energy calculations to predict energy use in buildings. Some inputs to energy simulation models are relatively easy to find, including building size, orientation, construction materials, and HVAC system size and type. Others vary with time (e.g. weather and occupancy) and some can be a challenge to estimate in order to create an accurate simulation. In this paper, the analysis of occupancy sensor data for a large commercial, multi-tenant office building is presented. It details occupancy diversity factors for private offices and summarizes the same for open offices, hallways, conference rooms, break rooms, and restrooms in order to better inform energy simulation parameters. Long-term data were collected allowing results to be presented to show variations of occupancy diversity factors in private offices for time of day, day of the week, holidays, and month of the year. The diversity factors presented differ as much as 46% from those currently published in ASHRAE 90.1 2004 energy cost method guidelines, a document referenced by energy modelers regarding occupancy diversity factors for simulations. This may result in misleading simulation results and may introduce inefficiencies in the final equipment and systems design.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2017

Application of automated measurement and verification to utility energy efficiency program data

Trustworthy savings calculations are critical to convincing regulators of both the cost-effectiveness of energy efficiency program investments and their ability to defer supply-side capital investments. Today’s methods for measurement and verification (M&V) of energy savings constitute a significant portion of the total costs of energy efficiency programs. They also require time-consuming data acquisition. A spectrum of savings calculation approaches is used, with some relying more heavily on measured data and others relying more heavily on estimated, modeled, or stipulated data. The increasing availability of “smart” meters and devices that report near-real time data, combined with new analytical approaches to quantify savings, offers the potential to conduct M&V more quickly and at lower cost, with comparable or improved accuracy. Commercial energy management and information systems (EMIS) technologies are beginning to offer these ‘M&V 2.0’ capabilities, and program administrators want to understand how they might assist programs in quickly and accurately measuring energy savings. This paper presents the results of recent testing of the ability to use automation to streamline the M&V process. In this paper, we apply an automated whole-building M&V tool to historic data sets from energy efficiency programs to begin to explore the accuracy, cost, and time trade-offs between more traditional M&V, and these emerging streamlined methods that use high-resolution energy data and automated computational intelligence. For the data sets studied we evaluate the fraction of buildings that are well suited to automated baseline characterization, the uncertainty in gross savings that is due to M&V 2.0 tools’ model error, and indications of labor time savings, and how the automated savings results compare to prior, traditionally determined savings results. The results show that 70% of the buildings were well suited to the automated approach. In a majority of the cases (80%) savings and uncertainties for each individual building were quantified to levels above the criteria in ASHRAE Guideline 14. In addition the findings suggest that M&V 2.0 methods may also offer time-savings relative to traditional approaches. Lastly, we discuss the implications of these findings relative to the potential evolution of M&V, and pilots currently being launched to test how M&V automation can be integrated into ratepayer-funded programs and professional implementation and evaluation practice.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2017

Model calibration of a variable refrigerant flow system with a dedicated outdoor air system: A case study

With increased use of variable refrigerant flow (VRF) systems in the U.S. building sector, interests in capability and rationality of various building energy modeling tools to simulate VRF systems are rising. This paper presents the detailed procedures for model calibration of a VRF system with a dedicated outdoor air system (DOAS) by comparing to detailed measured data from an occupancy emulated small office building. The building energy model is first developed based on as-built drawings, and building and system characteristics available. The whole building energy modeling tool used for the study is U.S. DOE’s EnergyPlus version 8.1. The initial model is, then, calibrated with the hourly measured data from the target building and VRF-DOAS system. In a detailed calibration procedures of the VRF-DOAS, the original EnergyPlus source code is modified to enable the modeling of the specific VRF-DOAS installed in the building. After a proper calibration during cooling and heating seasons, the VRF-DOAS model can reasonably predict the performance of the actual VRF-DOAS system based on the criteria from ASHRAE Guideline 14-2014. The calibration results show that hourly CV-RMSE and NMBE would be 15.7% and 3.8%, respectively, which is deemed to be calibrated. As a result, the whole-building energy usage after calibration of the VRF-DOAS model is 1.9% (78.8 kWh) lower than that of the measurements during comparison period.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2018

Integrating diagnostics and model-based optimization

Energy Management and Information Systems are a family of analytics technologies that include energy information systems, fault detection and diagnostics (FDD), and automated system optimization tools. Such systems have the potential to enable buildings to meet energy management goals of reducing total energy consumption and cost. Most current market offerings use data-driven and rule-based analytics. However, the use of physics-based models in the analytics offers potential improvements by providing an accurate estimation of outputs based on representation of the physical principles governing the building system behaviors. This also permits the use of design stage models to inform commissioning and operation. This paper describes the development and testing of a hybrid data-driven and physics model-based operational tool for energy efficiency in central cooling plants. The tool offers FDD functionality, setpoint optimization, and visualization of key performance parameters. It was demonstrated at a university campus in the mixed-humid ASHRAE Climate Zone 4A. Key performance metrics that were analyzed include plant electricity use reduction, plant model calibration, and system economics. Annual simulations indicate the tool can provide electricity savings of greater than 10% for approximately six months of the year, mainly during the winter season when wet bulb temperatures are low, though only 1.38% savings for the entire year. Additionally, over a 4-day period in April, recommended optimal setpoints were implemented, resulting in 17% savings versus metered baseline consumption. With respect to model calibration, the difference between model-predicted and measured parameters was less than 10% for 90% of data points acquired for three of six chillers, and for each ten cooling towers. Finally, the tool users reported that satisfaction with the capabilities was equal to or better than that with the preexisting BAS system.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2019

Potential benefits of cool walls on residential and commercial buildings across California and the United States: Conserving energy, saving money, and reducing emission of greenhouse gases and air pollutants

Solar-reflective “cool” walls reduce absorption of sunlight by the building envelope, which may decrease cooling load in warm weather and increase heating load in cool weather. Changes to annual heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) energy use depend on climate, wall construction, wall orientation, building geometry, HVAC efficiency, and operating schedule. Changes to annual energy cost and energy-related emissions further vary with local energy prices and emission factors. In this work, we used EnergyPlus to perform over 100,000 whole-building energy simulations, spanning 10 different building categories, three building vintages, 16 California climate zones, and 15 United States (U.S.) climate zones. We find that cool walls yielded annual source energy, energy cost, and emission savings in all California climate zones and in warm U.S. (ASHRAE) climate zones. In California, annual whole-building HVAC energy cost savings were 4.0–27% in single-family homes, 0.5–3.8% in medium office buildings, and 0.0–8.5% in stand-alone retail stores. In warm U.S. climates—zones 1A (Miami, FL) through 4B (Albuquerque, NM)—annual HVAC energy cost savings were 1.8–8.3% in single-family homes, 0.3–4.6% in medium office buildings, and 0.5–11% in stand-alone retail stores. California and U.S. fractional source energy and emission savings were comparable to fractional energy cost savings. Per unit surface area modified, cool-wall savings often exceeded cool-roof savings because building codes typically prescribe much less wall insulation than roof insulation.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2019

Evaluation of methods to assess the uncertainty in estimated energy savings

In this work we present a methodology to evaluate the accuracy of methods used to quantify the uncertainty in estimated total energy savings. We focus on savings measurement and verification (M&V) approaches that use a baseline model to characterize energy use, and that forward-project the model for a counterfactual to determine avoided energy use. These approaches are common to the International Performance Measurement and Verification Protocol's (IPMVP's) Option C and Option B. This methodology can be used to evaluate the uncertainty in savings estimates that are due to model error. It has been applied to evaluate two uncertainty estimation methods, including the industry standard ASHRAE Guideline 14 approach. The evaluation used data from 69 commercial buildings and four different baseline models that span daily and hourly granularity, as well as linear and non-linear/non-parametric forms. The findings of this work indicate that the standard methods that are widely used by the M&V community for estimating the total savings uncertainty over the post-installation period tend to underestimate the uncertainty. The tendency to underestimate the uncertainty is stronger for hourly models than for daily models, due to stronger autocorrelation in model residuals at the hourly time scale.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2019

Energy savings with outdoor temperature-based smart ventilation control strategies in advanced California homes

We simulated the energy performance of smart ventilation controls based on outdoor temperature in homes located in California climate regions, designed to comply with the 2016 Title 24, Part 6 California Energy Code prescriptive requirements. The smart controls shift ventilation rates in time, but ensure an annual occupant pollutant exposure equal to, or less than, what would be experienced in a home with a constant ventilation rate equal to the whole house target airflow in the ASHRAE Standard 62.2-2016. Annual simulations of previously developed prototype homes with validated ventilation models were conducted via co-simulation of EnergyPlus with CONTAM. Controller performance varied substantially by climate zone, airtightness and house prototype. Smart controls were generally ineffective in Climate Zone 1 (Arcata) due to its lack of a cooling season and low diurnal temperature swings. The most successful smart controls used parameters pre-calculated using an optimization routine. In order to better inform state energy policy, we also determined savings weighted by the amount of new home construction in each climate. The best controls averaged about one-third of ventilation-related energy savings that increased to about 48–55% when weighted. Annual average savings were about 650–700 kWh/year for the best controllers. The vast majority of site energy savings were for heating end-uses (>90% of total savings). Whole house ventilation rates increased between 0% and 42%, with typical increases in the 15–20% range. Finally, the best-performing control strategies shifted ventilation rates seasonally and modulated flows within each season. Peak concentrations during low ventilation times were kept below an exposure level of 3, well below the maximum of 5 required to avoid acute exposure issues.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2019

A Methodology to Create Prototypical Building Energy Models for Existing Buildings: A Case Study on U.S. Religious Worship Buildings

Prototypical building energy models are of great significance because they are the starting point in conducting analyses for various applications, such as building energy saving potential analysis, building design, building energy market evaluation, and building energy policy-making. However, current prototypical building energy models only represent limited types of buildings in certain countries. To fill the gap, this paper proposes a methodology to systematically create prototypical building energy models. First, a six-step methodology is introduced: model input identification, data collection, data cleaning, data conversion, model simulation, and model calibration. Then, the methodology is demonstrated by a case study of creating 30 prototypical energy models for U.S. religious worship buildings, representing buildings in 15 climate zones and 2 vintages (pre- and post-1980). Finally, to show the applications of the models, the building energy saving potentials from six efficiency measures are analyzed for pre-1980 U.S. religious worship buildings in three ASHRAE Climate Zones. The results show that the maximum energy saving potentials are approximately 30% for the religious worship buildings in all three climate zones investigated.

prototype building model, building simulation, Bui↗
DOE OSTI2020

Prototype energy models for data centers

Data centers in the United States consume about two percent of the nation’s electricity. Because heat gains from IT equipment drive cooling demand, data centers offer unique opportunities for energy savings. However, no prototype energy model for data centers is available in the suite of existing U.S. Department of Energy’s Commercial Prototype Building Models. Here we present the development of two new data center prototype models and their implementation in OpenStudio and EnergyPlus. The small-size data center model represents a computer room in a building served by computer room air conditioners (CRACs); while the large-sized model represents stand-alone data centers served by computer room air handlers (CRAHs) with a central chiller plant. For each data center model, two levels of IT equipment (ITE) load density were considered, to cover the wide range of IT power density of data centers: 40 and 100 W/ft 2 (430 and 1076 W/m 2 ) for the computer room, and 100 and 500 W/ft 2 (1076 and 5382 W/m 2 ) for the stand-alone data center. All other assumptions, such as building envelope, lighting, HVAC efficiencies and schedules, were based on the minimal requirements of ASHRAE Standard 90.1 at various vintages. We introduced a novel concept of supply and return air approach temperatures to capture the essential effects of non-uniform airflow and temperature distribution in data centers. The approach temperatures were pre-computed by computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations for various configurations of ITE loads and airflow containment management in data centers. A new feature was developed in EnergyPlus to implement the approach temperature method. A case study was conducted to demonstrate the use of the data center models. The two data center models cover all U.S. climate zones and can be used to evaluate energy saving measures for data centers, as well as to support development of data center energy efficiency codes and standards.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

What are the Impacts on the HVAC System when it Provides Frequency Regulation? – A Comprehensive Case Study with a Multi-Zone Variable Air Volume (VAV) System

Heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems in commercial buildings have proven to be a great asset for providing secondary frequency regulation (FR) service to the power grid. However, how the provision of FR service affects the HVAC system Quality of Service (QOS) is still largely unknown. In particular, there exists a controversy regarding the energy efficiency impact. This paper investigates how a HVAC system performance and its associated controls are impacted during and after the FR service. For the assessment, we developed a dynamic Modelica-based medium office building model as a virtual testbed with the Air Handling Unit (AHU) fans providing the FR service. Different regulation capacities (demand levels) and standard test signals under various load profiles in the U.S. are considered. The results show that FR has little or no impact on the HVAC operation and occupant thermal comfort while the building is providing the service if an appropriate regulation capacity is pre-determined. However, if the regulation capacity is overestimated, the quality of the FR service provided by the HVAC system and the HVAC energy efficiency will be affected due to the equipment operating constraints. In addition, the AHU supply air temperature fluctuates, and the controller cannot maintain the desired setpoint as the FR magnitude is increased. After the FR service time, the system takes a certain period to return to normal operation. The recovery period extends with the increase in the FR magnitude. For this case study, there exists a control conflict between the FR control and the existing HVAC control (from ASHRAE Guideline 36-2018) during high load conditions, causing the fan speed to saturate. The fan power consumption could increase significantly; up to 77% increase compared to the baseline was observed. This case study demonstrates that the HVAC system controls need to be enhanced and adapted to minimize the interaction between the FR controller and the indoor environmental controls in order to preserve the HVAC system QOS while (during and after) providing satisfactory FR service.

Lu, Xing↗
DOE OSTI2024

Methodology to evaluate design modifications intended to eliminate frosting and high discharge temperatures in air-source heat pumps (ASHPs) in cold climates

Air-source heat pumps (ASHPs) operating in cold climates experience problems with frosting and high refrigerant temperatures. These problems increase energy consumption, and their severity depends on the climatic conditions. In the present paper, a methodology for identifying the prevailing problem between frosting and high discharge temperatures is presented. Three performance indices, the frosting index (FI), the discharge index (DI), and the total loss index (TLI), are proposed to quantify the impacts of frosting and high discharge temperatures on the annual performance of ASHPs in different climatic conditions. The FI and DI show which problem (frosting or high discharge temperature) dominates, and the TLI indicates the combined effect of frosting and high discharge temperatures on the performance of an ASHP. A thermodynamic model of an ASHP coupled with the TRNSYS building simulation tool is used to estimate the performance of an ASHP and the proposed loss indices to estimate the impact of both frosting and high discharge temperatures for 45 cities in Canada. The results can be extended to other parts of the world that experience similar climatic conditions The results reveal that in cities in ASHRAE climatic zones 5 and 6 (classified as cold regions) where the ambient air temperatures are predominantly between -15 °C to 6 °C, ASHPs are heavily impacted by frosting. The problem of high discharge temperatures in ASHPs is predominant in cities in climate zones 7 and 8 (classified as very cold and subarctic regions) where the temperatures are frequently below -20 °C in winter. Among the cities considered, St. John, NL has the highest fraction of heating hours experiencing frosting (90 %), where the annual increase in energy consumption due to frosting is 13.5 % of the annual heating energy consumption. The highest annual increase in energy consumption due to high discharge temperatures is in Isachsen, NU (zone 8), where the increase is 30 % of the annual heating energy consumption. Based on the proposed indices, another index called the performance gain index (PGI) is created, which can be used as a first step to assess the energy-saving potential of design modifications applied to ASHPs to solve the problems of frosting and high discharge temperatures. The PGI will aid in developing climate specific ASHPs. One possible design modification is the use of a two-stage ASHP with an economizer. It is observed that the two-stage ASHP with economizer can mitigate high discharge temperatures and improve performance in very cold and subarctic regions (zones 7 and 8). However, it is not as beneficial in zones 5 and 6, where the impact of high discharge temperatures on performance is minimal and frosting dominates. Finally, a case study, using the PGI to evaluate the economic and environmental effectiveness of a two-stage ASHP with economizer is presented for the city of Saskatoon.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Energy characteristics of multi-chiller load distribution algorithms in a large office building

Here, this study evaluates the energy efficiency of multi-chiller systems in large office buildings, focusing on their optimization across various climate zones as defined by ASHRAE. Using EnergyPlus for simulations, the research examines five different load distribution algorithms in multi-chiller systems that range from one to ten chillers, aiming to understand their effectiveness in 15 distinct climate zones. The primary objectives of the study include identifying the energy efficiency of multi-chiller systems in each climate zone, determining the appropriate number of chillers for each zone, and evaluating the performance of the load distribution algorithms. Based on the U.S. Department of Energy’s commercial building model, the results suggest that multi-chiller systems can significantly reduce cooling energy consumption in various climates. Among the algorithms evaluated, the Sequential Uniform Part Load Ratio (SUPLR) algorithm demonstrates notable efficiency, especially in the 4A climate zone (Baltimore), where it achieves substantial energy savings. Applying the SUPLR algorithm in a multi-chiller setup with four chillers in this zone leads to an estimated 24.5 % reduction in energy usage, equivalent to 183 MW annually. The research indicates that a range of 3 to 5 chillers is typically optimal for most climate zones. In-depth analysis in the 4A climate zone highlights the importance of minimizing operation hours at low Part Load Ratios (PLR) to ensure that chillers operate at a high Coefficient of Performance (COP). This strategy underscores the potential of well-designed multi-chiller systems to reduce cooling energy demand, particularly in climates with transitional seasons. This study provides an overview of the energy-saving potential of multi-chiller systems, applicable across a variety of climatic scenarios.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluation of hybrid evaporative-vapor compression air conditioners for different global climates

Currently, a majority of global residential air-conditioning requirements are met using cooling systems based on the vapor compression cycle (VCC). To meet the future demand for space cooling and to reduce the corresponding environmental impact, there is a need for alternative cooling systems which require less resources and exhibit a higher coefficient of performance (COP). One of proposed alternatives is called the hybrid evaporative-vapor compression (HEVC) cycle, which utilizes adiabatic latent cooling in combination with the VCC. In this paper, we conducted a feasibility analysis of a HEVC system by comparing its performance to that of VCC for various global climates. To accomplish this, we developed and validated models to simulate the performance of residential VCC and HEVC systems. ASHRAE weather data and design conditions were then used to compare the performance of the two systems. In general, HEVC systems are best suited for hot arid climates with energy reduction greater than 20%. Conversely, humid climates are not suitable for HEVC adoption due to degraded performance of evaporative coolers in these climates. In addition to comparing the energy savings from HEVC systems, it is also critical to analyze their water consumption. Generally, climates that benefit the most from HEVC technology tend to also experience water scarcity issues. Thus, both the energy savings and water consumption of HEVC systems must be analyzed to guide the discussion on their adoption.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2014

Development and application of a statistical methodology to evaluate the predictive accuracy of building energy baseline models

This paper documents the development and application of a general statistical methodology to assess the accuracy of baseline energy models, focusing on its application to Measurement and Verification (M&V) of whole-­building energy savings. The methodology complements the principles addressed in resources such as ASHRAE Guideline 14 and the International Performance Measurement and Verification Protocol. It requires fitting a baseline model to data from a ``training period’’ and using the model to predict total electricity consumption during a subsequent ``prediction period.’’ We illustrate the methodology by evaluating five baseline models using data from 29 buildings. The training period and prediction period were varied, and model predictions of daily, weekly, and monthly energy consumption were compared to meter data to determine model accuracy. Several metrics were used to characterize the accuracy of the predictions, and in some cases the best-­performing model as judged by one metric was not the best performer when judged by another metric.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2022

How will United States commercial building energy use be impacted by IPCC climate scenarios?

Climate change and anthropogenically-forced shift of weather in the future will impact energy use and resilience of both the built environment and the electric grid. The aim of this analysis is to understand how future climate scenarios will impact electricity and natural gas use of commercial buildings in the United States. Here, this study analyzes this impact for 2030, 2045, and 2100 using Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios defined in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Report 5. The large, gridded simulation of meteorological variables for RCPs 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 are selected and downscaled to make available hourly Future Meteorological Year (FMY) weather files for use and improvement in subsequent studies. High performance computing resources use these FMYs to simulate commercial prototype buildings in every American Society of Heating, Refrigeration, and Air Conditioning Engineers (ASHRAE) climate zone of the United States (US), and results are scaled to nation-wide energy use using conditioned floor area multipliers. The analysis is conducted without speculating the physical and performance traits of future buildings or the grid characteristics. This analysis quantifies the impact of climate change on source electrical and natural gas usage for commercial buildings in the United States over the next 80 years. If US commercial floorspace remained constant, total energy use by 2100 is predicted between an 1.75% decrease under the greatest emission scenario (8.5) and a 1.76% increase under the lowest emission scenario (2.6). When adjusted for anticipated urban growth by 2100, the predicted range is 65% increase (8.5) and 71% increase (2.6). Under a global temperature rise climate scenario, the warmest US climate zones will see a large increases in electricity use derived from space cooling while the coldest US climate zones will see significant decreases in natural gas use caused by the decrease in heating necessary. While climate change may ultimately require adaptations of the built environment to withstand its effects and because the United States is a country that requires more heating than cooling, from a building energy perspective, climate change (average temperature rise) is a net energy saver for the United States.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗