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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2023

GRIDS-Net: Inverse shape design and identification of scatterers via geometric regularization and physics-embedded deep learning

This study presents a deep learning based methodology for both remote sensing and design of acoustic scatterers. The ability to determine the shape of a scatterer, either in the context of material design or sensing, plays a critical role in many practical engineering problems. This class of inverse problems is extremely challenging due to their high-dimensional, nonlinear, and ill-posed nature. To overcome these technical hurdles, we introduce a geometric regularization approach for deep neural networks (DNN) based on non-uniform rational B-splines (NURBS) and capable of predicting complex 2D scatterer geometries in a parsimonious dimensional representation. Then, this geometric regularization is combined with physics-embedded learning and integrated within a robust convolutional autoencoder (CAE) architecture to accurately predict the shape of 2D scatterers in the context of identification and inverse design problems. Further, an extensive numerical study is presented in order to showcase the remarkable ability of this approach to handle complex scatterer geometries while generating physically-consistent acoustic fields. The study also assesses and contrasts the role played by the (weakly) embedded physics in the convergence of the DNN predictions to a physically consistent inverse design.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Changing windstorm characteristics over the US Northeast in a single model large ensemble

Abstract Extreme windstorms pose a significant hazard to infrastructure and public safety, particularly in the highly populated US Northeast (NE). However, the influence climate change and changing land use will have on these events remains unclear. A large ensemble generated using the Max-Planck Institute (MPI) Earth system model is used to generate projections of NE windstorms under different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and to attribute changes to projected land use land cover (LULC) change, externally forced changes and internal climate variability. To reduce the influence of coarse grid cell resolution and uncertainties in surface roughness lengths, windstorms are identified using simultaneous widespread exceedance of local 99th percentile 10 m wind speeds (U 99 ). Projected declines in forest cover in the NE and the resulting reductions in surface roughness length under SSP3-7.0 lead to projections of large increases in U 99 and derived windstorm intensity and scale. However, these projected changes in regional LULC under SSP3-7.0 are unprecedented in a historical context and may not be realistic. After corrections are applied to remove the influence of LULC on wind speeds, regionally averaged U 99 exhibit declines for most of the single model initial-condition large ensemble (SMILE) members which are broadly proportional to the radiative forcing and global air temperature increase in the SSPs, with a median value of −0.15 ms −1 °C −1 . While weak cyclones are projected to decline in frequency in the NE, intense cyclones and the resulting windstorms and indices of socioeconomic loss do not. Where present, significant trends in these loss indices are positive, and some MPI SMILE members generate future windstorms that are unprecedented in the historical period.

Coburn, Jacob (ORCID:0000000309538117)↗

NASA NTRS1995

Numerical magetohydrodynamics in astronphysics: Algorithm and tests for one-dimensional flow`

We describe a numerical code to solve the equations for ideal magnetohydrodynamics (MHD). It is based on an explicit finite difference scheme on an Eulerian grid, called the total variation diminishing (TVD) scheme, which is a second-order-accurate extension of the Roe-type upwind scheme. We also describe a non-linear Riemann solver for ideal MHD, which includes rarefractions as well as shocks. The numerical code and the Riemann solver have been used to test each other. Extensive tests encompassing all the possible ideal MHD structures with planar symmetries (i.e., one-dimensional flows) are presented. These include those for which the field structure is two dimensional (i.e., those flows often called '1 + 1/2 dimensional') as well as those for which the magnetic field plane rotates (i.e., those flows often called '1 + 1/2 + 1/2 dimensional'). Results indicate that the code can resolve strong fast, slow, and magnetosonic shocks within two to four cells, but more cells are required if shocks become weak. With proper steepening, we could resolve rotational discontinuities within three to five cells. However, without successful implementation of steepening, contact discontinuities are resolved with approximately 10 cells and tangential discountinuities are resolved with approximately 15 cells. Out tests confirm that slow compound structures with tow-dimensional magnetic fields are composed of intermediate shocks (so-called 2-4 intermediate shocks) followed by slow rarefaction waves. Finally, tests demostrate that in two-dimensional magnetohydrodynamics, fast compound structures, which are composed of intermediate shocks (so-called 1-3 intermediate shocks) preceeded by fast rarefaction waves, are also possible.

Ryu, Dongsu↗

NASA NTRS2006

Modeling and Correcting the Time-Dependent ACS PSF

The ability to accurately measure the shapes of faint objects in images taken with the Advanced Camera for Surveys (ACS) on the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) depends upon detailed knowledge of the Point Spread Function (PSF). We show that thermal fluctuations cause the PSF of the ACS Wide Field Camera (WFC) to vary over time. We describe a modified version of the TinyTim PSF modeling software to create artificial grids of stars across the ACS field of view at a range of telescope focus values. These models closely resemble the stars in real ACS images. Using 10 bright stars in a real image, we have been able to measure HST s apparent focus at the time of the exposure. TinyTim can then be used to model the PSF at any position on the ACS field of view. This obviates the need for images of dense stellar fields at different focus values, or interpolation between the few observed stars. We show that residual differences between our TinyTim models and real data are likely due to the effects of Charge Transfer Efficiency (CTE) degradation. Furthermore, we discuss stochastic noise that is added to the shape of point sources when distortion is removed, and we present MultiDrizzle parameters that are optimal for weak lensing science. Specifically, we find that reducing the MultiDrizzle output pixel scale and choosing a Gaussian kernel significantly stabilizes the resulting PSF after image combination, while still eliminating cosmic rays/bad pixels, and correcting the large geometric distortion in the ACS. We discuss future plans, which include more detailed study of the effects of CTE degradation on object shapes and releasing our TinyTim models to the astronomical community.

Rhodes, Jason↗

NASA NTRS2014

Toward Improved Land Surface Initialization in Support of Regional WRF Forecasts at the Kenya Meteorological Department

Flooding and drought are two key forecasting challenges for the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD). Atmospheric processes leading to excessive precipitation and/or prolonged drought can be quite sensitive to the state of the land surface, which interacts with the boundary layer of the atmosphere providing a source of heat and moisture. The development and evolution of precipitation systems are affected by heat and moisture fluxes from the land surface within weakly-sheared environments, such as in the tropics and sub-tropics. These heat and moisture fluxes during the day can be strongly influenced by land cover, vegetation, and soil moisture content. Therefore, it is important to represent the land surface state as accurately as possible in numerical weather prediction models. Enhanced regional modeling capabilities have the potential to improve forecast guidance in support of daily operations and high-end events over east Africa. KMD currently runs a configuration of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in real time to support its daily forecasting operations, invoking the Nonhydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM) dynamical core. They make use of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration / National Weather Service Science and Training Resource Center's Environmental Modeling System (EMS) to manage and produce the WRF-NMM model runs on a 7-km regional grid over eastern Africa. Two organizations at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, AL, SERVIR and the Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center, have established a working partnership with KMD for enhancing its regional modeling capabilities. To accomplish this goal, SPoRT and SERVIR will provide experimental land surface initialization datasets and model verification capabilities to KMD. To produce a land-surface initialization more consistent with the resolution of the KMD-WRF runs, the NASA Land Information System (LIS) will be run at a comparable resolution to provide real-time, daily soil initialization data in place of interpolated Global Forecast System soil moisture and temperature data. Additionally, real-time green vegetation fraction data from the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite will be incorporated into the KMD-WRF runs, once it becomes publicly available from the National Environmental Satellite Data and Information Service. Finally, model verification capabilities will be transitioned to KMD using the Model Evaluation Tools (MET) package, in order to quantify possible improvements in simulated temperature, moisture and precipitation resulting from the experimental land surface initialization. The transition of these MET tools will enable KMD to monitor model forecast accuracy in near real time. This presentation will highlight preliminary verification results of WRF runs over east Africa using the LIS land surface initialization.

Case. Jonathan↗

DOE OSTI2023

A Sequential Quadratic Programming Algorithm for Nonsmooth Problems with Upper- \({\boldsymbol{\mathcal{C}^2}}\) Objective

An optimization algorithm for nonsmooth nonconvex constrained optimization problems with upper- \({\boldsymbol{\mathcal{C}^2}}\) objective functions is proposed and analyzed. Upper- \({\boldsymbol{\mathcal{C}^2}}\) is a weakly concave property that exists in difference of convex (DC) functions and arises naturally in many applications, particularly certain classes of solutions to parametric optimization problems e.g., recourse of stochastic programming and projection onto closed sets. The algorithm can be viewed as an extension of sequential quadratic programming (SQP) to nonsmooth problems with upper- \({\boldsymbol{\mathcal{C}^2}}\) objectives or a simplified bundle method. It is globally convergent with bounded algorithm parameters that are updated with a trust-region criterion. The algorithm handles general smooth constraints through linearization and uses a line search to ensure progress. The potential inconsistencies from the linearization of the constraints are addressed through a penalty method. In conclusion, the capabilities of the algorithm are demonstrated by solving both simple upper- \({\boldsymbol{\mathcal{C}^2}}\) problems and a real-world optimal power flow problem used in current power grid industry practices.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

A robust statistical analysis of the role of hydropower on the system electricity price and price volatility

Abstract Hydroelectric power (hydropower) is unique in that it can function as both a conventional source of electricity and as backup storage (pumped hydroelectric storage and large reservoir storage) for providing energy in times of high demand on the grid (S. Rehman, L M Al-Hadhrami, and M M Alam), (2015 Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews , 44 , 586–98). This study examines the impact of hydropower on system electricity price and price volatility in the region served by the New England Independent System Operator (ISONE) from 2014-2020 (ISONE, ISO New England Web Services API v1.1 .” https://webservices.iso-ne.com/docs/v1.1/ , 2021. Accessed: 2021-01-10). We perform a robust holistic analysis of the mean and quantile effects, as well as the marginal contributing effects of hydropower in the presence of solar and wind resources. First, the price data is adjusted for deterministic temporal trends, correcting for seasonal, weekend, and diurnal effects that may obscure actual representative trends in the data. Using multiple linear regression and quantile regression, we observe that hydropower contributes to a reduction in the system electricity price and price volatility. While hydropower has a weak impact on decreasing price and volatility at the mean, it has greater impact at extreme quantiles (>70th percentile). At these higher percentiles, we find that hydropower provides a stabilizing effect on price volatility in the presence of volatile resources such as wind. We conclude with a discussion of the observed relationship between hydropower and system electricity price and volatility.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Adaptive Cybersecurity for Distributed Energy Resources (AdCyDER): Online Reinforcement Learning with Stackelberg-Optimized Defenses — Pipeline Architecture, Evaluation Methodology, and Findings from a Synthetic-Data Evaluation

This report documents the design and evaluation of an integrated online-learning pipeline developed within the AdCyDER project for Distributed Energy Resource (DER) cybersecurity. The pipeline couples a Reinforcement Learning (RL) attack classifier — which produces an attack-type probability distribution — with a Stackelberg game-theoretic (GT) defense selector that consumes those distributions alongside SME-encoded priors over (defense, attack) effectiveness pairings and perdefense costs to choose grid-health-preserving defenses. The objective is not attack classification per se but production of distributions that drive effective defense selection through the Stackelberg layer, learned from delayed grid-health feedback rather than labeled attack data. AdCyDER as a whole is broader than the work presented here; this report covers the specific RL/GT loop integration and its evaluation. We present the integrated pipeline (SCADA telemetry with Fronius inverter physics, Suricata IDS, time-windowed aggregation, per-facility LSTM classifier, Stackelberg optimizer, OpenC2 actuators), an experimental campaign of 28 eight-hour iterations across three baseline modes, and a pipeline-ordered diagnostic protocol. The protocol identifies two distinct failure modes within the loop: paired supervised ceilings on the same features establish that the deployed online RL classifier (macro F1 ≈ 0.07) sits at least 4.7× below a same-architecture supervised LSTM (≈ 0.34) and 10–11× below a linear feature-signal ceiling (≈ 0.70–0.79 depending on per-facility isolation), localizing the dominant failure to the training procedure; and the reward signal driving online updates carries weak directional coupling with classifier correctness in the methodology-expected direction (multi-lens convergent: top-decile P(true) records produce more frequent state changes and slightly larger improvements, top-vs-bot Cohen’s 𝑑 ≈ −0.19), but at effect magnitudes too small to drive gradient-based learning at the campaign sample size. The original learning hypothesis is not supported by the data. The primary contributions are the diagnostic methodology — proposed as a transferable falsification protocol for online RL/GT defense pipelines learning from delayed environmental reward — and the open, reproducible experimental infrastructure. We outline reward reformulation as the highest-priority aspirational next step given the underpowered-but-aligned Q6 reading, with hardware-in-the-loop evaluation as the broadest scope-expansion option.

Blakely, Benjamin [Argonne National Laboratory (AN↗

NASA NTRS1995

Comparison of simulated cloud cover with satellite obsrvations over the Western United States

Satellite imagery datasets and regional climate model results are intercompared for evaluation of model accuracy in the simulation of cloud cover. Both monthly average individual simulation times are analyzed. To provide a consistent comparison, satellite data are first mapped into the model's geographic projection, grid domain, and resolution. It is found that September 1988 monthly average cloud fraction results from the modeled simulations correspond to observations, in both spatial pattern and magnitude, with bias less than +/- 20% cloud fraction over the entire inland West. Agreement in the pattern of cloud fraction also is evident for monthly average cloud fraction in July, but there is no negative bias of 10%-30% cloud fraction in the model diagnosis of cloud cover. Correlations between the spatial distributions of model-derived and observed cloud fractions are found to exceed 0.80 for certain geographic regions of the West, and these correlations are largest over mountainous areas during summer. Case studies of a series of daily cloud cover demonstrate the ability of the model to simulate the effects of frontal passage on cloud distribution. The ability of the RegCM1 to simulate daily cloud fraction and diurnal cloud evolution is somewhat weak for the summer convective season. It is anticipated that a more recent version of the regional climate model may improve the simulation of summer season cloud cover, through changes in cloud parameterization and improvements in model resolution.

Wetzel, Melanie A.↗

DOE OSTI2026

The sweeper spectrometer for neutron invariant-mass spectroscopy at FRIB

Neutron invariant-mass spectroscopy (NIMS) is a key technique for studying unbound and weakly bound nuclei at the limits of stability. At the Facility for Rare Isotope Beams (FRIB), such measurements are performed using the Sweeper spectrometer, a large-gap, high-rigidity dipole system coupled to the MoNA-LISA neutron detector arrays. To meet the demands imposed by higher beam energies (>130 MeV/u) and the broad cocktail-beam selection available at FRIB, the spectrometer has recently been upgraded to improve particle-identification and detection performance. Upstream of the reaction target, a plastic scintillator with Silicon photomultiplier (SiPM) readout provides the global trigger and time reference, two parallel plate avalanche counters (PPACs) track the trajectories of incoming beam particles, and a silicon PIN detector measures the energy loss, ΔE, for charge (Z) identification. After the Sweeper magnet, the trajectories of the reaction products are tracked by two micro-pattern drift chambers (MPDCs), their charge (Z) is identified by a Frisch-grid ionization chamber (FG-IC), and their mass-to-charge ratio (A/Q) is deduced by time-of-flight measurement using a fast plastic scintillator read out by an array of photomultiplier tubes (PMTs). The detection system also incorporates the Modular Neutron Array (MoNA) for neutron detection and the CAESium-iodide scintillator ARray (CAESAR) for high-efficiency γ-ray measurements to enable full kinematic reconstruction. Performance was evaluated using a cocktail beam around 37 Al accelerated at E ≈ 130 MeV/u during the first FRIB campaign, demonstrating the readiness of the upgraded system for future studies of nuclei at and beyond the neutron drip line.

Particle identification methods↗

NASA NTRS2013

Comparison of Four Precipitation Forcing Datasets in Land Information System Simulations over the Continental U.S.

The NASA Short ]term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center in Huntsville, AL is running a real ]time configuration of the NASA Land Information System (LIS) with the Noah land surface model (LSM). Output from the SPoRT ]LIS run is used to initialize land surface variables for local modeling applications at select National Weather Service (NWS) partner offices, and can be displayed in decision support systems for situational awareness and drought monitoring. The SPoRT ]LIS is run over a domain covering the southern and eastern United States, fully nested within the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Stage IV precipitation analysis grid, which provides precipitation forcing to the offline LIS ]Noah runs. The SPoRT Center seeks to expand the real ]time LIS domain to the entire Continental U.S. (CONUS); however, geographical limitations with the Stage IV analysis product have inhibited this expansion. Therefore, a goal of this study is to test alternative precipitation forcing datasets that can enable the LIS expansion by improving upon the current geographical limitations of the Stage IV product. The four precipitation forcing datasets that are inter ]compared on a 4 ]km resolution CONUS domain include the Stage IV, an experimental GOES quantitative precipitation estimate (QPE) from NESDIS/STAR, the National Mosaic and QPE (NMQ) product from the National Severe Storms Laboratory, and the North American Land Data Assimilation System phase 2 (NLDAS ]2) analyses. The NLDAS ]2 dataset is used as the control run, with each of the other three datasets considered experimental runs compared against the control. The regional strengths, weaknesses, and biases of each precipitation analysis are identified relative to the NLDAS ]2 control in terms of accumulated precipitation pattern and amount, and the impacts on the subsequent LSM spin ]up simulations. The ultimate goal is to identify an alternative precipitation forcing dataset that can best support an expansion of the real ]time SPoRT ]LIS to a domain covering the entire CONUS.

Case, Jonathan L.↗

NASA NTRS1976

Statistical equilibrium calculations for silicon in early-type model stellar atmospheres

Line profiles of 36 multiplets of silicon (Si) II, III, and IV were computed for a grid of model atmospheres covering the range from 15,000 to 35,000 K in effective temperature and 2.5 to 4.5 in log (gravity). The computations involved simultaneous solution of the steady-state statistical equilibrium equations for the populations and of the equation of radiative transfer in the lines. The variables were linearized, and successive corrections were computed until a minimal accuracy of 1/1000 in the line intensities was reached. The common assumption of local thermodynamic equilibrium (LTE) was dropped. The model atmospheres used also were computed by non-LTE methods. Some effects that were incorporated into the calculations were the depression of the continuum by free electrons, hydrogen and ionized helium line blocking, and auto-ionization and dielectronic recombination, which later were found to be insignificant. Use of radiation damping and detailed electron (quadratic Stark) damping constants had small but significant effects on the strong resonance lines of Si III and IV. For weak and intermediate-strength lines, large differences with respect to LTE computations, the results of which are also presented, were found in line shapes and strengths. For the strong lines the differences are generally small, except for the models at the hot, low-gravity extreme of our range. These computations should be useful in the interpretation of the spectra of stars in the spectral range B0-B5, luminosity classes III, IV, and V.

Kamp, L. W.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Spatial–Temporal Patterns of Historical, Near-Term, and Projected Drought in the Conterminous United States

Major droughts in the United States have heavily impacted the hydrologic system, negatively effecting energy and food production. Improved understanding of historical drought is critical for accurate forecasts. Data from global climate models (GCMs), commonly used to assess drought, cannot effectively evaluate local patterns because of their low spatial scale. This research leverages downscaled (~4 km grid spacing) temperature and precipitation estimates from nine GCMs’ data under the business-as-usual scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) to examine drought patterns. Drought severity is estimated using the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) with the Thornthwaite evapotranspiration method. The specific objectives were (1) To reproduce historical (1966–2005) drought and calculate near-term to future (2011–2050) drought patterns over the conterminous USA. (2) To uncover the local variability of spatial drought patterns in California between 2012 and 2018 using a network-based approach. Our estimates of land proportions affected by drought agree with the known historical drought events of the mid-1960s, late 1970s to early 1980s, early 2000s, and between 2012 and 2015. Network analysis showed heterogeneity in spatial drought patterns in California, indicating local variability of drought occurrence. The high spatial scale at which the analysis was performed allowed us to uncover significant local differences in drought patterns. This is critical for highlighting possible weak systems that could inform adaptation strategies such as in the energy and agricultural sectors.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1994

Climatology of large-scale isentropic mixing in the Arctic winter stratosphere from analyzed winds

Dynamic isolation of the winter Arctic circumpolar vortex is studied using analyzed winds derived from geopotential height fields. Isentropic trajectories are calculated for assemblages of particles initialized on uniform latitude-longitude grids. Transport across isolines of Ertel potential vorticity (PV) is used to characterize the mixing processes of ejection of vortex air and entrainment of midlatitude air into the vortex. During January and February a barrier to mixing, where exchange of air is inhibited, typically forms near the vortex boundary. At 450 K, transport across the barrier is predominantly in the form of thin filaments of particles ejected from the vortex. These filaments tend to wrap around the vortex, creating a layered structure of vortex and midlatitude air at the vortex edge. Near or total splits of the vortex into two or more distinct vortex fragments are quite common based on these trajectory calculations. Significant entrainment deep into the vortex is rare and results from only a limited number of the splitting events. During December and March the mixing barrier is less evident due to nonconservative factors during the spin-up and breakdown of the vortex, respectively. In December both ejection and entrainment are only weakly inhibited by the mixing barrier. Exchange in March is dominated by ejection of air from the vortex.

Dahlberg, Steven P.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Historical (1700–2012) Global Multi-Model Estimates of the Fire Emissions from the Fire Modeling Intercomparison Project (FireMIP)

Fire emissions are critical for carbon and nutrient cycles, climate, and air quality. Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) with interactive fire modeling provide important estimates for long-term and large-scale changes of fire emissions. Here we present the first multi-model estimates of global gridded historical fire emissions for 1700-2012, including carbon and 33 species of trace gases and aerosols. The dataset is based on simulations of nine DGVMs with different state-of-the-art global fire models that participated in the Fire Modeling Intercomparison Project (FireMIP), using the same and standardized protocols and forcing data, and the most up-to-date fire emission factor table from field and laboratory studies over various land cover types. We evaluate the simulations of present-day fire emissions by comparing them with satellite-based products. Evaluation results show that most DGVMs simulate present-day global fire emission totals within the range of satellite-based products, and can capture the high emissions over the tropical savannas, low emissions over the arid and sparsely vegetated regions, and the main features of seasonality. However, most of the models fail to simulate the interannual variability, partly due to a lack of modeling peat fires and tropical deforestation fires. Historically, all models show only a weak trend in global fire emissions before ~1850s, consistent with multi-source merged historical reconstructions. The long-term trends among DGVMs are quite different for the 20th century, with some models showing an increase and others a decrease in fire emissions, mainly as a result of the discrepancy in their simulated responses to human population density change and land-use and land-cover change (LULCC). Our study provides a basic dataset for developing regional and global multi-source merged historical reconstructions and merging methods, and analyzing historical changes of fire emissions and their uncertainties as well as their role in the Earth system. It also highlights the importance of accurately modeling the responses of fire emissions to LULCC and population density change in reducing uncertainties in historical reconstructions of fire emissions and providing more reliable future projections.

Li, Fang↗

NASA NTRS2007

Acoustic Receptivity of Mach 4.5 Boundary Layer with Leading- Edge Bluntness

Boundary layer receptivity to two-dimensional slow and fast acoustic waves is investigated by solving Navier-Stokes equations for Mach 4.5 flow over a flat plate with a finite-thickness leading edge. Higher order spatial and temporal schemes are employed to obtain the solution whereby the flat-plate leading edge region is resolved by providing a sufficiently refined grid. The results show that the instability waves are generated in the leading edge region and that the boundary-layer is much more receptive to slow acoustic waves (by almost a factor of 20) as compared to the fast waves. Hence, this leading-edge receptivity mechanism is expected to be more relevant in the transition process for high Mach number flows where second mode instability is dominant. Computations are performed to investigate the effect of leading-edge thickness and it is found that bluntness tends to stabilize the boundary layer. Furthermore, the relative significance of fast acoustic waves is enhanced in the presence of bluntness. The effect of acoustic wave incidence angle is also studied and it is found that the receptivity of the boundary layer on the windward side (with respect to the acoustic forcing) decreases by more than a factor of 4 when the incidence angle is increased from 0 to 45 deg. However, the receptivity coefficient for the leeward side is found to vary relatively weakly with the incidence angle.

Malik, Mujeeb R.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Intense windstorms in the northeastern United States

Abstract. Windstorms are a major natural hazard in many countries. The objective of this study is to identify and characterize intense windstorms during the last 4 decades in the US Northeast and determine both the sources of cyclones responsible for these events and the manner in which those cyclones differ from the cyclone climatology. The windstorm detection is based on the spatial extent of locally extreme wind speeds at 100 m height from the ERA5 reanalysis database. During the top 10 windstorms, wind speeds exceed their local 99.9th percentile over at least one-third of land-based ERA5 grid cells in this high-population-density region of the USA. Maximum sustained wind speeds at 100 m during these windstorms range from 26 to over 43 ms−1, with wind speed return periods exceeding 6.5 to 106 years (considering the top 5 % of grid cells during each storm). Property damage associated with these storms, with inflation adjusted to January 2020, ranges from USD 24 million to over USD 29 billion. Two of these windstorms are linked to decaying tropical cyclones, three are Alberta clippers, and the remaining storms are Colorado lows. Two of the 10 re-intensified off the east coast, leading to development of nor'easters. These windstorms followed frequently observed cyclone tracks but exhibit maximum intensities as measured using 700 hPa relative vorticity and mean sea level pressure that is 5–10 times the mean values for cyclones that followed similar tracks over this 40-year period. The time evolution of wind speeds and concurrent precipitation for those windstorms that occurred after the year 2000 exhibit good agreement with in situ ground-based and remote sensing observations, plus storm damage reports, indicating that the ERA5 reanalysis data have a high degree of fidelity for large, damaging windstorms such as these. A larger pool of the top 50 largest windstorms exhibit evidence of only weak serial clustering, which is in contrast to the relatively strong serial clustering of windstorms in Europe.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2021

Australian tidal currents – assessment of a barotropic model (COMPAS v1.3.0 rev6631) with an unstructured grid

While the variations of tidal range are large and fairly well known across Australia (less than 1 m near Perth but more than 14 m in King Sound), the properties of the tidal currents are not. We describe a new regional model of Australian tides and assess it against a validation dataset comprising tidal height and velocity constituents at 615 tide gauge sites and 95 current meter sites. The model is a barotropic implementation of COMPAS, an unstructured-grid primitive-equation model that is forced at the open boundaries by TPXO9v1. The mean absolute error (MAE) of the modelled M2 height amplitude is 8.8 cm, or 12 % of the 73 cm mean observed amplitude. The MAE of phase (10°), however, is significant, so the M2 mean magnitude of vector error (MMVE, 18.2 cm) is significantly greater. The root sum square over the eight major constituents is 26 % of the observed amplitude. We conclude that while the model has skill at height in all regions, there is definitely room for improvement (especially at some specific locations). For the M2 major axis velocity amplitude, the MAE across the 95 current meter sites, where the observed amplitude ranges from 0.1 to 156 cm s −1 , is 6.9 cm s −1 , or 22 % of the 31.7 cm s −1 observed mean. This nationwide average result is encouraging, but it conceals a very large regional variation. Relative errors of the tidal current amplitudes on the narrow shelves of New South Wales (NSW) and Western Australia exceed 100 %, but tidal currents are weak and negligible there compared to non-tidal currents, so the tidal errors are of little practical significance. Looking nationwide, we show that the model has predictive value for much of the 79 % of Australia's shelf seas where tides are a major component of the total velocity variability. In descending order this includes the Bass Strait, the Kimberley to Arnhem Land, and southern Great Barrier Reef regions. There is limited observational evidence to confirm that the model is also valuable for currents in other regions across northern Australia. We plan to commence publishing “unofficial” tidal current predictions for chosen regions in the near future based on both our COMPAS model and the validation dataset we have assembled.

Tidal currents↗