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Diffusion Monte Carlo approaches for studying nuclear quantum effects in fluxional molecules

Abstract Diffusion quantum Monte Carlo (DMC) provides a powerful approach for obtaining the ground state energy and wave function of molecules, ions, and molecular clusters. The approach is uniquely well suited for studies of fluxional molecules, which undergo large amplitude vibrational motions even in their ground state. In contrast to the electronic structure problem, where the wave function must be antisymmetric with respect to exchange of any pair of electrons, the wave function for the ground vibrational state is nodeless. This greatly simplifies the application of DMC for vibrational problems. Because there is not a single potential function that can be used to describe the intramolecular and intermolecular interactions in all molecular systems, most methods that are used to describe nuclear quantum effects rely on a carefully chosen zero‐order description of the molecular vibrations. In contrast, DMC calculations can be performed in Cartesian coordinates, making the DMC algorithm easily transferable between different chemical systems. In this contribution, the theory that underlies DMC will be discussed along with important considerations for performing DMC calculations. Extensions for evaluating vibrationally excited states and molecular properties are also discussed. Insights that can be obtained from DMC calculations are illustrated in the context of the protonated water clusters. This article is categorized under: Molecular and Statistical Mechanics > Molecular Dynamics and Monte‐Carlo Methods Theoretical and Physical Chemistry > Spectroscopy

Chemistry↗

On-chip non-Hermitian optical parametric amplifiers with a large bandwidth

Recently, our groups have introduced the notion of optical parametric amplification based on non-Hermitian phase matching wherein the incorporation of loss can lead to gain in this nonlinear optical process. Previous simulation results using second-order nonlinear optical coupled-mode theory have demonstrated the potential of this technique as an alternative to the stringent phase-matching condition, which is often difficult to achieve in semiconductor platforms. Here we fortify this notion for the case of third-order nonlinearity by considering parametric amplification in silicon nanowires and illustrate the feasibility of these devices by employing rigorous finite-difference time-domain analysis using realistic materials and geometric parameters. Particularly, we demonstrate that by systematic control of the optical loss of the idler in a four-wave mixing process, we can achieve efficient unidirectional energy conversion from the pump to the signal component even when the typical phase-matching condition is violated. Importantly, our simulations show that a signal gain of ∼ <#comment/> 9 d B for a waveguide length of a few millimeters is possible over a large bandwidth of several hundreds of nanometers ( ∼ <#comment/> 600 n m ). This bandwidth is nearly 2 orders of magnitude larger than what can be achieved in the conventional silicon-photonics-based four-wave mixing process.

Ahmed, Asif (ORCID:0000000152234392)↗

Explicit expressions of the potential and its derivatives at the origin in terms of the scattering data

The quantum mechanical theory of scattering of a particle by a spherically symmetrical potential is presented. As in the inverse scattering problem, the input of the calculation is the scattering and bound-state data, and the output is data on the potential. The results discussed are explicit expressions for the values of the potential and its derivatives at the origin in terms of the scattering and boundstate data. Various methods to obtain these results are outlined. The presentation is aimed at introducing these various approaches. The simplest scattering problem (nonrelativistic S-wave scattering on a holomorphic potential without bound states) is used as the basis for discussion, and technicalities are omitted whenever possible without loss of clarity. A complete compilation is given of the results obtained to date in this field, including the treatment of higher partial waves and the Klein-Gordon and Dirac equations.

Calogero, F.↗

Independent Technical Assessment of NASA and External Quantum Sensing Capability

The recent FY 2020 federal Research and Development Budget Priorities memo addresses the leadership need in Quantum Information Science (QIS) directing agencies to “prioritize QIS research and development (R&D), which will build the technical and scientific base necessary to explore the next generation of QIS theory, devices, and applications.” Quantum Sensing (QS) is an integral part of QIS. NASA is a key part of the directive to forward American space exploration and commercialization by providing “capabilities that have broad potential applications in space and on Earth.” QS provides an arena for NASA to demonstrate leadership in both areas of the administrative directive. QS uses quantum properties to achieve unprecedented measurement sensitivity and performance, including quantum-enhanced methodologies that outperform their classical counterparts. Typical quantum sensors exploit techniques such as atomic systems, matter waves, quantum entanglement, quantum superposition of states, quantum illumination methods, and manipulation of photons and atoms, in general. Guided by advancements in our ability to generate, manipulate, and control quantum systems, the emerging quantum sensing technologies promise unrivalled sensitivity, resolution, and precision, potentially leading to game-changing applications. Significant gains include technologies important for a range of NASA missions such as remote sensing, in situ measurements, metrology, interferometry, quantum communication, ranging, imaging, radar and lidar receivers, and gravity measurements. NASA Engineering and Safety Center has convened an independent external panel, comprising of Quantum Sensing Experts from Government, DoD, academia, and Federally funded Research and Development Center to conduct an independent technical assessment of the agency's capabilities in Quantum Sensing to understand NASA's internal needs and competencies related to Quantum Sensing and compare agency capabilities with those available externally including industry, academia, and other government agencies. The outcomes of the assessment will help the agency in establishing appropriate strategies and investments to develop and maintain the state-of-the-art sensing competence and capabilities required to meet the agency’s future needs. The External Experts Panel (EEP) is collaborating with HQ, various NASA Center and the representatives in the NASA Quantum Sensing Community of Practice (QS CoP), a part of NASA Sensors and Instrumentation Technical Fellow Technical Discipline Team, in obtaining common, current understanding of agency mission needs where QS can be an important enabler for future needs, and any programs, projects, assets, and technologists working in QS. The EEP organized a Quantum Sensing Workshop of practitioners from industry, academia, other government agencies, external experts, and interested NASA personnel to gather the assessment information. EEP also conducted information gathering on the industry at large, educational institutions, and other government agency research efforts for capture in the assessment database. At the conclusion of this assessment, EEP team will develop findings and conclusions describing NASA’s capabilities for the mission needs, NASA's relative position on new, enabling technologies, and an analysis of the gaps that may present any risks to near-term or far-term mission needs. This presentation will give details of the NASA and External Quantum Sensing Assessment outcomes, findings, observations, and its recommendation to NASA as how it can advance Quantum Sensing technologies and techniques for its science and explorations related missions.

External Quantum Sensing Capability↗

Search for continuous gravitational wave signals from luminous dark photon superradiance clouds with LVK O3 observations

Superradiance clouds of kinetically mixed dark photons around spinning black holes can produce observable multimessenger electromagnetic and gravitational wave signals. The cloud generates electric fields of up to a teravolt-per-meter, which leads to a cascade production of charged particles, yielding a turbulent quasiequilibrium plasma around the black hole, and resulting in electromagnetic fluxes ranging from supernova to pulsar-like luminosities. For stellar mass black holes, such systems resemble millisecond pulsars and are expected to emit pulsating radio waves and continuous gravitational waves (CWs) within the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA (LVK) sensitivity band. We select 44 sources with approximately coincident frequencies or positive frequency drifts from existing pulsar catalogs as potential candidates of long-lasting superradiance clouds around old Galactic black holes. For a subset of 34 sources that are well measured and have not been previously targeted, we perform the first search for CW emission in LVK data from the third observing run. We find no evidence of a CW signal and place 95% confidence level upper limits on the emitted strain amplitude. We interpret these results, together with limits from previous searches, in terms of the underlying dark photon theory by performing an analysis of the expected signals from superradiance clouds from Galactic black holes. Finally, we find that, even for moderately spinning black holes, the absence of an observed CW signal disfavors a discrete set of dark photon masses between about 10 −13 and 10 −12 eV/c 2 and kinetic mixing couplings in the range of 10 −9 –10 −7 , subject to assumptions about the properties of the black hole population and the cloud’s electromagnetic emission.

astronomical black holes↗

Nosetip Bluntness Effects on Transition at Hypersonic Speeds: Experimental and Numerical Analysis Under NATO STO AVT-240

The existing database of transition measurements in hypersonic ground facilities has established that the onset of boundary layer transition over a circular cone at zero angle of attack shifts downstream as the nosetip bluntness is increased with respect to a sharp cone. However, this trend is reversed at sufficiently large values of the nosetip Reynolds number, so that the transition onset location eventually moves upstream with a further increase in nosetip bluntness. This transition reversal phenomenon, which cannot be explained on the basis of linear stability theory, was the focus of a collaborative investigation under the NATO STO group AVT-240 on Hypersonic Boundary-Layer Transition Prediction. The current paper provides an overview of that effort, which included wind tunnel measurements in three different facilities and theoretical analysis related to modal and nonmodal amplification of boundary layer disturbances. Because neither first and second-mode waves nor entropy-layer instabilities are found to be substantially amplified to initiate transition at large bluntness values, transient (i.e., nonmodal) disturbance growth has been investigated as the potential basis for a physics-based model for the transition reversal phenomenon. Results of the transient growth analysis indicate that disturbances that are initiated within the nosetip or in the vicinity of the juncture between the nosetip and the frustum can undergo relatively significant nonmodal amplification and that the maximum energy gain increases nonlinearly with the nose radius of the cone. This finding does not provide a definitive link between transient growth and the onset of transition, but it is qualitatively consistent with the experimental observations that frustum transition during the reversal regime was highly sensitive to wall roughness, and furthermore, was dominated by disturbances that originated near the nosetip.

Numerical analysis↗

Nosetip Bluntness Effects on Transition at Hypersonic Speeds: Experimental and Numerical Analysis

The existing database of transition measurements in hypersonic ground facilities has established that the onset of boundary layer transition over a circular cone at zero angle of attack shifts downstream as the nosetip bluntness is increased with respect to a sharp cone. However, this trend is reversed at sufficiently large values of the nosetip Reynolds number, so that the transition onset location eventually moves upstream with a further increase in nosetip bluntness. This transition reversal phenomenon, which cannot be explained on the basis of linear stability theory, was the focus of a collaborative investigation under the NATO STO group AVT-240 on Hypersonic Boundary-Layer Transition Prediction. The current paper provides an overview of that effort, which included wind tunnel measurements in three different facilities and theoretical analysis related to modal and nonmodal amplification of boundary layer disturbances. Because neither first and second-mode waves nor entropy-layer instabilities are found to be substantially amplified to initiate transition at large bluntness values, transient (i.e., nonmodal) disturbance growth has been investigated as the potential basis for a physics based model for the transition reversal phenomenon. Results of the transient growth analysis indicate that stationary disturbances that are initiated within the nosetip or in the vicinity of the juncture between the nosetip and the frustum can undergo relatively significant nonmodal amplification and that the maximum energy gain increases nonlinearly with the nose radius of the cone. This finding does not provide a definitive link between transient growth and the onset of transition, but it is qualitatively consistent with the experimental observations that frustum transition during the reversal regime was highly sensitive to wall roughness, and furthermore, was dominated by disturbances that originated near the nosetip. Furthermore, the present analysis shows significant nonmodal growth of traveling disturbances that peak within the entropy layer and could also play a role in the transition reversal phenomenon.

Freestream Mach Number↗

Anomalous elastic softening in ferroelectric hafnia under pressure

his study employs first-principles density-functional theory (DFT) calculations to explore the elastic and mechanical properties of ferroelectric hafnia (HfO 2 ) in its polar orthorhombic 𝑃⁢𝑐⁢𝑎⁢2 1 phase under varying hydrostatic pressure conditions up to 30 GPa. Utilizing a plane-wave basis set and Perdew-Burke-Ernzerhof generalized-gradient approximation for solids in our DFT calculations, we investigate both pure and yttrium-substituted HfO 2 . Our findings reveal an anomalous reduction in the 𝐶 33 component of the elastic tensor with increasing pressure, which becomes significant above 15 GPa and signals a potential pressure-driven structural phase transition at higher pressure. The analysis of atomic displacements under pressure sheds light on the unusual mechanical behavior and phase stability of this material. Additionally, we observe a transition from an indirect band gap to a direct band gap with increasing pressure, which could have significant implications for optical applications. Here, the effects of yttrium substitution on the mechanical and electronic properties are further examined, revealing that yttrium substitution softens the elastic response of this material and reduces the electronic band gap. These results enhance our understanding of elastic and mechanical responses of ferroelectric hafnia and its potential for applications in microelectronics, piezoelectric devices, and nonvolatile ferroelectric random-access memories. Further experimental validation is recommended to confirm our predictions and explore the practical implications of the observed phase transitions and electronic behavior of the ferroelectric hafnia under high-pressure conditions.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Quasi-Two-Dimensional Antiferromagnetic Spin Fluctuations in the Spin-Triplet Superconductor Candidate CeRh 2 As 2

The tetragonal heavy-fermion superconductor CeRh 2 ⁢As 2 (T c = 0.3 K) exhibits an exceptionally high critical field of 14 T for B ∥ c. It undergoes a field-driven first-order phase transition between superconducting states, potentially transitioning from spin-singlet to spin-triplet superconductivity. To further understand these superconducting states and the role of magnetism, we probe spin fluctuations in CeRh 2 ⁢As 2 using neutron scattering. Here, we find dynamic (π, π) antiferromagnetic (AFM) spin correlations with an anisotropic quasi-two-dimensional correlation volume. Our data place an upper limit of 0.31 μ B on the staggered magnetization of corresponding Néel orders at T = 0.08 K. Density functional theory calculations, treating Ce 4⁢ƒ electrons as core states, show that the AFM wave vector connects significant areas of the Fermi surface. Our findings indicate that the dominant excitations in CeRh 2 ⁢As 2 for ℏω⁢ < 1.2 meV are magnetic and suggest that superconductivity in CeRh 2⁢ As 2 is mediated by AFM spin fluctuations associated with a proximate quantum critical point.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Space-Time Quantum Information from the Entangled States of Magnetic Molecule (STI Product)

This collaborative project combines synthesis, measurement, and theory by three faculty members at the Eddleman Quantum Institute of UC Irvine to effectively investigate the quantum properties of molecules in the space, time, and frequency domains. Through synthetic chemistry, molecules are tailored for their magnetic and coherent properties. By combining femtosecond (fs) terahertz (THz) light and a continuous wave (cw) THz laser with a low temperature scanning tunneling microscope (STM), quantum phenomena are probed with simultaneous femtosecond temporal and atomic-scale spatial resolution. In particular, the invention of the quantum superposition microscope (QSM) advances quantum sensing for enhanced spectroscopy and imaging capabilities. Coupling theory to the experimental efforts offers a deeper understanding and predictive power for the molecular systems. The phenomena of superposition, entanglement, and coherence is central to quantum information science and can be realized in qubit states. Many systems can be modeled by a double-well potential in which two levels are formed in the two lowest energy states interacting with the environment and external radiation. In focusing on molecules as two-level systems, the underlying expectation is that their tunable composition and structure allows an effective parameter space to optimize their use as qubits for quantum sensing and computing. The THz radiation induces the superposition between the two states, appearing as temporal oscillations that damp in amplitude. Enhanced spectroscopy and imaging in the time and frequency domains is achieved through the extreme sensitivity of the frequency and damping of coherence of two-level systems to its environment. A single hydrogen molecule trapped in the STM tunneling gap experiences a double-well potential and absorption of THz femtosecond pulses of light creates the superposition of its two levels, appearing as damped oscillations in the light induced direct current (DC). The oscillation frequency depends sensitively on the electric field distribution of the copper nitride (Cu 2 N) surface, through the Stark effect, and associated with the different charge distributions at the copper and nitrogen sites and in between. This QSM can resolve variation in the surface electric field with 0.02 nanometer resolution. In addition, the single hydrogen molecule entaes with nearby hydrogen molecules as seen in the avoided level crossings of energy (oscillation frequency) versus the voltage across the tunneling gap. Thus, the first application of the QSM senses and images the surface electric field at the atomic scale. Results from this project advance fundamental understanding of quantum phenomena, develop novel synthesis, measurement, and theory, provide the knowledge foundation for molecule-based qubits and sensing that enable the development of the QSM and emergent technologies. This project trained researchers in quantum information science, extended knowledge in classrooms, and outreached to the community.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Supersonic Traveling Crossflow Wave Characteristics in Ground and Flight Tests

This paper continues analysis of data acquired in a series of supersonic crossflow transition experiments on a 65° swept- wing model tested in both wind tunnel and flight. Flow visualization data are summarized to provide context for the swept-wing instability mechanisms of interest. Unsteady pressure measurements obtained near the wing model leading edge (LE) are studied using 2nd- and 3rd-order statistical methods to extract traveling crossflow wave characteristics from these data. Comparisons between tunnel and flight data with boundary-layer (BL) Linear Stability Theory (LST) predictions provide insights into BL transition phenomena similarities and differences observed in tests using the same swept-wing model configurations. Comparisons of unsteady pressure data results for wing LE configurations with and without distributed-roughness-element (DRE) patterns installed, suggest traveling crossflow disturbance growth is reduced when this type of flow control is applied. A brief stud y of different background surface roughness levels on the wing LE suggests the potential for another flow control approach to promote laminar flow on swept wings using streamwise-biased surface finishes.

Lewis R Owens↗

The theory of an auto-resonant field emission cathode relativistic electron accelerator for high efficiency microwave to direct current power conversion

A novel method of microwave power conversion to direct current is discussed that relies on a modification of well known resonant linear relativistic electron accelerator techniques. An analysis is presented that shows how, by establishing a 'slow' electromagnetic field in a waveguide, electrons liberated from an array of field emission cathodes, are resonantly accelerated to several times their rest energy, thus establishing an electric current over a large potential difference. Such an approach is not limited to the relatively low frequencies that characterize the operation of rectennas, and can, with appropriate waveguide and slow wave structure design, be employed in the 300 to 600 GHz range where much smaller transmitting and receiving antennas are needed.

Manning, Robert M.↗

Solid Rocket Motor Combustion Instability Modeling in COMSOL Multiphysics

Combustion instability modeling of Solid Rocket Motors (SRM) remains a topic of active research. Many rockets display violent fluctuations in pressure, velocity, and temperature originating from the complex interactions between the combustion process, acoustics, and steady-state gas dynamics. Recent advances in defining the energy transport of disturbances within steady flow-fields have been applied by combustion stability modelers to improve the analysis framework [1, 2, 3]. Employing this more accurate global energy balance requires a higher fidelity model of the SRM flow-field and acoustic mode shapes. The current industry standard analysis tool utilizes a one dimensional analysis of the time dependent fluid dynamics along with a quasi-three dimensional propellant grain regression model to determine the SRM ballistics. The code then couples with another application that calculates the eigenvalues of the one dimensional homogenous wave equation. The mean flow parameters and acoustic normal modes are coupled to evaluate the stability theory developed and popularized by Culick [4, 5]. The assumption of a linear, non-dissipative wave in a quiescent fluid remains valid while acoustic amplitudes are small and local gas velocities stay below Mach 0.2. The current study employs the COMSOL multiphysics finite element framework to model the steady flow-field parameters and acoustic normal modes of a generic SRM. The study requires one way coupling of the CFD High Mach Number Flow (HMNF) and mathematics module. The HMNF module evaluates the gas flow inside of a SRM using St. Robert's law to model the solid propellant burn rate, no slip boundary conditions, and the hybrid outflow condition. Results from the HMNF model are verified by comparing the pertinent ballistics parameters with the industry standard code outputs (i.e. pressure drop, thrust, ect.). These results are then used by the coefficient form of the mathematics module to determine the complex eigenvalues of the Acoustic Velocity Potential Equation (AVPE). The mathematics model is truncated at the nozzle sonic line, where a zero flux boundary condition is self-satisfying. The remaining boundaries are modeled with a zero flux boundary condition, assuming zero acoustic absorption on all surfaces. The results of the steady-state CFD and AVPE analyses are used to calculate the linear acoustic growth rate as is defined by Flandro and Jacob [2, 3]. In order to verify the process implemented within COMSOL we first employ the Culick theory and compare the results with the industry standard. After the process is verified, the Flandro/Jacob energy balance theory is employed and results displayed.

Fischbach, Sean R.↗

Correlated signals of first-order phase transitions and primordial black hole evaporation

Fermi balls produced in a cosmological first-order phase transition may collapse to primordial black holes (PBHs) if the fermion dark matter particles that comprise them interact via a sufficiently strong Yukawa force. We show that phase transitions described by a quartic thermal effective potential with vacuum energy, 0.1 ≲ B 1/4 /MeV ≲ 10 3 , generate PBHs of mass, 10 –20 ≲ M PBH /M ⊙ ≲ 10 –16 , and gravitational waves from the phase transition (at THEIA/μAres) can be correlated with an isotropic extragalactic X-ray/γ-ray background from PBH evaporation (at AMEGO-X/e-ASTROGAM).

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

A forecast for large-scale structure constraints on Horndeski gravity with CO line intensity mapping

Here we consider the potential for line intensity mapping (LIM) of the rotational CO(1-0), CO(2-1), and CO(3-2) transitions to detect deviations from General Relativity from 0 < z < 3 within the framework of a very general class of modified gravity models, called Horndeski’s theories. Our forecast assumes a multitracer analysis separately obtaining information from the matter power spectrum and the first two multipoles of the redshift space distortion power spectrum. To achieve ±0.1 level constraints on the slope of the kinetic gravity braiding and Planck mass evolution parameters, a mm-wave LIM experiment would need to accumulate ≈10 8 –10 9 spectrometre-hours, feasible with instruments that could be deployed in the 2030s. Such a measurement would constrain the parameters of Horndeski’s theory at a level at worst competitive to and at best an order of magnitude tighter than existing constraints from the CMB and LSS. Our modelling code is publicly available.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Laboratory chamber experiments exploring the potential use of artificially ionized layers of gas as a Bragg reflector for over-the-horizon signals

A set of parallel plasma layers is generated by two intersecting microwave pulses in a chamber containing dry air at a pressure comparable to the upper atmosphere. The dependence of the breakdown conditions on the pressure and pulse length is examined. The results are shown to be consistent with the appearance of tail erosion of microwave pulse caused by air breakdown. Bragg scattering experiments, using the plasma layers as a Bragg reflector are then performed. Both time domain and frequency domain measurements of wave scattering are conducted. The experimental results are found to agree very well with the theory. Moreover, the time domain measurement of wave scattering provides an unambiguous way for determining the temporal evolution of electron density during the first 100-microsec period.

Kuo, S. P.↗

Feasibility of a Novel Density Functional Method Outside the Kohn-Sham Framework for Modeling Global Potential Energy Surfaces of Molecular Chemical Reactions (Final Technical Report)

The project aimed towards the construction of computational methods capable of modeling the global potential energy surface (PES) of small molecules, molecular ions, and radicals — including the parts of the PES which correspond to chemical reactions, and the reaction paths connecting reactants, intermediates, and reaction products. This goal may seem humble at first glance, but for chemical systems with more than about six atoms in total, at the time the project was proposed, there were no established theoretical methods capable of simulating such systems reliably, not even for small molecules in the gas phase which are electronically benign. This restriction severely hampers our ability to model and control chemical processes under harsh conditions. With the goal of constructing a method capable of modeling such chemical systems, we proposed to pursue a novel approach towards a Multi-Configuration (MC) DFT outside the traditional frameworks of Kohn-Sham theory and other methods of coupling wave function theory with DFT. Rather than being a complete active space (CAS) method, the proposed DOCI-DFT would employ a special restricted form of the active space wave function, called Doubly-Occupied CI (DOCI)—this wave function form is sufficient to describe not only heterolytic, but also homolytic bond dissociation processes at the zeroth order (i.e., as active space wave function). There are no other standard mean field methods which can do so. In the original proposal, we also outlined strong formal and practical arguments speaking for this method. The project proposal was accepted by the Department of Energy and provided two years of seed funding for one graduate student, as well as two years of two weeks PI summer-salary for the PI. However, ultimately the project could not be effectively pursued due to severe interferences outside the context scientific problems and was cancelled. Apart from two weeks of PI salary (and associated fringe & overhead costs issues by the performing institution), no costs were charged against the award, with the entire rest of funding returned to the Department of Energy. This report reiterates the primary background information regarding the project, its original goals, and outlines the preliminary work performed during the two weeks of DOE funding charged.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Applications of Data Assimilation to Analysis of the Ocean on Large Scales

It is commonplace to begin talks on this topic by noting that oceanographic data are too scarce and sparse to provide complete initial and boundary conditions for large-scale ocean models. Even considering the availability of remotely-sensed data such as radar altimetry from the TOPEX and ERS-1 satellites, a glance at a map of available subsurface data should convince most observers that this is still the case. Data are still too sparse for comprehensive treatment of interannual to interdecadal climate change through the use of models, since the new data sets have not been around for very long. In view of the dearth of data, we must note that the overall picture is changing rapidly. Recently, there have been a number of large scale ocean analysis and prediction efforts, some of which now run on an operational or at least quasi-operational basis, most notably the model based analyses of the tropical oceans. These programs are modeled on numerical weather prediction. Aside from the success of the global tide models, assimilation of data in the tropics, in support of prediction and analysis of seasonal to interannual climate change, is probably the area of large scale ocean modeling and data assimilation in which the most progress has been made. Climate change is a problem which is particularly suited to advanced data assimilation methods. Linear models are useful, and the linear theory can be exploited. For the most part, the data are sufficiently sparse that implementation of advanced methods is worthwhile. As an example of a large scale data assimilation experiment with a recent extensive data set, we present results of a tropical ocean experiment in which the Kalman filter was used to assimilate three years of altimetric data from Geosat into a coarsely resolved linearized long wave shallow water model. Since nonlinear processes dominate the local dynamic signal outside the tropics, subsurface dynamical quantities cannot be reliably inferred from surface height anomalies. Because of its potential for large scale synoptic coverage of the deep ocean, acoustic travel time data should be a natural complement to satellite altimetry. Satellite data give us vertical integrals associated with thermodynamic and dynamic processes.

Miller, Robert N.↗