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At least 325 records · Page 18

ATAT: Astronomical Transformer for time series and Tabular data

Context. The advent of next-generation survey instruments, such as theVera C. RubinObservatory and its Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST), is opening a window for new research in time-domain astronomy. The Extended LSST Astronomical Time-Series Classification Challenge (ELAsTiCC) was created to test the capacity of brokers to deal with a simulated LSST stream. Aims. Our aim is to develop a next-generation model for the classification of variable astronomical objects. We describe ATAT, the Astronomical Transformer for time series And Tabular data, a classification model conceived by the ALeRCE alert broker to classify light curves from next-generation alert streams. ATAT was tested in production during the first round of the ELAsTiCC campaigns. Methods. ATAT consists of two transformer models that encode light curves and features using novel time modulation and quantile feature tokenizer mechanisms, respectively. ATAT was trained on different combinations of light curves, metadata, and features calculated over the light curves. We compare ATAT against the current ALeRCE classifier, a balanced hierarchical random forest (BHRF) trained on human-engineered features derived from light curves and metadata. Results. When trained on light curves and metadata, ATAT achieves a macro F1 score of 82.9 ± 0.4 in 20 classes, outperforming the BHRF model trained on 429 features, which achieves a macro F1 score of 79.4 ± 0.1. Conclusions. The use of transformer multimodal architectures, combining light curves and tabular data, opens new possibilities for classifying alerts from a new generation of large etendue telescopes, such as theVera C. RubinObservatory, in real-world brokering scenarios.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

Storage Futures Study: Grid Operational Impacts of Widespread Storage Deployment

This report, the fifth in the Storage Futures Study series, uses cost-driven scenarios from the ReEDS model as a starting point to examine the operational impacts of grid-scale storage deployment and relationships between this deployment and the contribution of variable renewable energy. We use commercial production cost modeling software to evaluate hourly operation of five scenarios that reach between 210 gigawatts (GW) and 930 GW of installed storage by 2050. We find that storage plays an important role in these power systems between now and 2050 - by storing the lowest-marginal cost generation (often, overgeneration from solar or wind plants) and generating energy during the highest net load periods of the day and year. Storage helps with the integration of variable renewable energy and by providing an important resource to provide continued reliable power.

battery↗

A Framework for Assessing Economic and Environmental Trade-offs of Internalized Emission Costs in ERCOT Grid Planning

The power grid is on the cusp of a massive transition driven by three major areas: 1) the growth in demand for electricity, 2) efforts to decarbonize the United States economy, and 3) a desire to mitigate social disparities from the impact of electricity generation on local populations. However, most studies of the electricity sector do not include equity impacts in their models. This study seeks to do so by developing a comprehensive and generalizable model tailored to the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) grid, designed to incorporate the equity impacts of electricity generation in a decarbonized and resilient framework. To integrate equity into our research, we incorporate environmental externalities into our capacity expansion model of ERCOT. Specifically, we factor in intermediate-level local marginal damages of precursor pollutants (NH3, NOx, primary PM2.5, SO2, and VOC) and global pollutant CO2 into the cost of generating electricity. We do this by taking into account county population, county ambient pollution concentration, and generator emission rates. Leveraging open-source modeling tools, such as PowerGenome, pyGRETA, and GenX we construct a county-level model to account for these costs. We integrate these marginal damages into the variable operations and maintenance costs of generators, for both existing and potential future builds. This study’s findings suggest that the value of a dynamic social cost of carbon (SSC) will cover criteria pollutant marginal damages within the ERCOT grid and solar and wind is expected to increase out to 2035. Key metrics evaluated within this research include fuel mix distribution across technologies, transmission and grid infrastructure costs, CO2 emissions, local pollutants marginal damages, and the variation in generation capacity built by the model. These results and framework can be used to support grid decisions that explicitly include distributional and procedural equity within a decarbonized and sustainable grid framework.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Adaptive Stiffness Power Take-Off System for a Hydraulic Hose-Pump Point Absorber Wave Energy Converter

Two crucial challenges faced in the design of ocean wave energy converters (WECs) are maintaining high capacity factors and remaining robust in everchanging, harsh ocean environments. This study introduces a novel mechanism for achieving reactive WEC control with a soft hydraulic power take-off, thereby addressing both challenges. The device of interest involves a hydraulic pump, constructed from a fluidic flexible matrix composite (F2MC), which is cyclically stretched by driving waves and pressurizes working fluid through a turbine-generator. This class of fiber-reinforced stretch hoses is established for ocean use as robust moorings and shock absorbers. The dynamic properties of the F2MC pump depend on internal pressure, which can be controlled by a continuously variable transmission between the turbine and generator, allowing the system to be adapted for better performance over a wide range of wave conditions. This work presents a dynamic model for operation and adaptive behavior of this power take-off system, experimentally validates components of the model, and performs dynamic simulations of the system that show increases in power production and capacity factor compared to non-adaptive operation for a variety of driving wave conditions. This work develops the basis for future large-scale experimental testing and controller design of this system.

Wave energy conversion, fluidic flexible matrix co↗

Multi-objective, robust constraints enforced global topology optimizer for optical devices

A method for optimization of photonic devices is disclosed. The method includes receiving a set of unconstrained latent variables; mapping the set of unconstrained latent variables to a constrained space to generate a constrained device; calculating the permittivity across each element of the constrained device; determining a permittivity-constrained width gradient based at least partially on the permittivity across each element; and optimizing the set of unconstrained latent variables by at least partially using the permittivity-constrained width gradient.

Fan, Jonathan↗

Impacts of Control, Penetration, and Distribution of Embedded Storage Network in Bulk Power System

The current shift in generation mix from fossil fuel plants towards variable and intermittent renewable energy sources is poised to create a future grid with reduced physical inertia and mismatch between generation and demand. Embedded storage, which is a concept of a coordinated network of storage units sited at the interface between the transmission and distribution system, is proposed as a mechanism to provide a buffer between generation and demand. This paper proposes an automated framework to model and integrate embedded storage in large-scale power systems with industry-grade grid-following (GFL) and grid-forming (GFM) control technologies. More importantly, the developed framework is used to explore the impacts of embedded storage control, penetration, location, and capacity in providing fast frequency response to the grid under contingency events such as generator trips and faults. The framework and study are conducted using the transient-stability simulation tool PSS/E and a realistic model of the Puerto Rico grid as a chosen test system. The simulation results show that GFL and GFM embedded storage, distributed throughout the system, with sufficient penetration and capacity, can effectively improve primary frequency response of the system under the studied contingency events.

Battery Energy Storage, embedded storage, grid-for↗

IM3/HyperFACETS Thermodynamic Global Warming (TGW) Simulation Datasets

Publication For a thorough description of the methods, see the peer-reviewed paper: Jones, A.D., Rastogi, D., Vahmani, P. et al. Continental United States climate projections based on thermodynamic modification of historical weather. Sci Data 10, 664 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-023-02485-5 Overview The IM3 / HyperFACETS climate simulations provide 40-year historical (1980-2019) as well as four 80-year future simulations (2020-2099) over the U.S. The future simulations are split into near (2020-2059) and far future (2060-2099) segments. The future scenarios span a range of plausible changes in future climate (both Global Circulation Model (GCM) and Representative Concentration Pathways/Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (RCP/SSP) dimensions). The simulations provide climate variables with high spatiotemporal resolution (25 hourly variables and 207 3-hourly variables at 12 km2). The datasets are generated using dynamical downscaling with the WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) model (version 4.2.1) and therefore preserve physical consistency across variables. WRF is a state-of-the-art, fully compressible, non-hydrostatic, mesoscale numerical weather prediction model. WRF is coupled with an urban canopy model (UCM), which resolves urban surfaces. The future scenarios were developed using a thermodynamic global warming approach where past events are replayed under a range of future warming conditions. These scenarios therefore provide a perspective on potential increases in extreme event intensity, geographic scope, and duration, with previously non-extreme conditions potentially crossing new thresholds to be considered extreme by today's standards. This approach is not intended to estimate future changes in extreme event frequency that might result from changes in large-scale atmospheric dynamics. This dataset has NOT been bias corrected. A bias corrected version of selected variables is under development and will be released here when available. Scenarios Files Data for each scenario is provided in weekly NetCDF files. 25 variables are available at hourly resolution, and 207 variables are available at three-hourly resolution. Spatial resolution is 12km and spans the conterminous United States (CONUS), including some areas of Canada and Mexico, resulting in a grid of 424 by 299 cells. The spatial projection is a Lambert Conformal Conic with the following proj-string: "+proj=lcc +lat_0=40.0000076293945 +lon_0=-97 +lat_1=30 +lat_2=45 +x_0=0 +y_0=0 +R=6370000 +units=m +no_defs". The available scenarios and simulation periods are listed below: historical | 1980 - 2019 rcp45cooler | 2020 - 2059 rcp45cooler | 2060 - 2099 rcp45hotter | 2020 - 2059 rcp45hotter | 2060 - 2099 rcp85cooler | 2020 - 2059 rcp85cooler | 2060 - 2099 rcp85hotter | 2020 - 2059 rcp85hotter | 2060 - 2099 * The first year (1979, 2019, and 2059) of data within each scenario represents a model warmup period and should not be used. These are located in the `spinup_files` directory. Historical year 2020 is considered an extra year of data beyond the simulation period and can be found in the `additional_files` directory. For information on specific variables and a more in-depth discussion of methodology, please refer to the data landing page at https://tgw-data.msdlive.org. Delta Warming Files The global and CONUS warming deltas for each scenario are provided in degrees Celsius annually and monthly. Restart Files Yearly restart files are provided for each scenario which can be used to restart the WRF model at a particular point in time. Spinup Files The first year of data within each simulation period represents a model warmup period and should not be used. The files are provided here for the sake of reproducibility. Additional Files Additional years of data are provided as an extension of the historic simulation.

Jones, Andrew D.↗

Improved Decarbonization Planning through Climate Resiliency Modeling

California has set ambitious decarbonization goals concerning both emissions and the portion of energy generated by renewable resources. However, climate change poses considerable uncertainties. Variation in load is driven both by the level of electrification as well as the impact of climate change on weather. Further, climate change stands to make weather more variable, impacting not just load but generation from renewable resources. In this paper, we approach the issue of the impacts of climate change on decarbonization planning from two perspectives. First, we look at the range of decarbonization pathways through 8 pathways that account for differences in socioeconomic development, global emissions, and warming. Second, we develop a more robust way of ensuring the reliability of energy resources planning than the commonly used planning reserve margin. We show that the proposed method can save between 6 and 14 billion dollars in investment and maintenance costs and outline critical policy implications concerning the reliance of power plants for satisfying planning reliability requirements, including the potential retirement of dozens of peaker power plants.

Anderson, Osten P.↗

Techno-Economic and Deployment Analysis of Fossil Fuel-Based Power Generation with Integrated Energy Storage

Most existing coal-fired power plants were designed for sustained operation at full load to maximize efficiency, reliability, and revenues. Depending on plant type and design, these plants can adjust output within a fixed range in response to plant or market conditions. The need for flexibility driven by increased penetration of variable and non-dispatchable power generation such as wind and solar is shifting traditional mission profile of thermoelectric power plants in three ways: more frequent shutdowns when market or grid conditions warrant, more aggressive load ramp rates (rate of output change), and lower minimum sustainable load, which provides a wider operating range and helps avoid costly plant shutdowns. The recent studies have shown that flexibility of a coal-fired power plant can be improved by the energy storage. The objective of this project was to analyze a set of energy storage options (technologies) and determine their impact on flexibility and economics of a representative coal-fired power plant. The effect of five Energy Storage Systems (ESSs) integrated with a coal power plant on plant flexibility and economics was investigated in this study. The results obtained in this project and presented in this report showed that ESS integrated with a thermal power plant improves plant flexibility and participation in the Energy and Ancillary Services markets and also improves plant financial performance.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Stochastic Framework for Optimal Control of Planetary Reentry Trajectories Under Multilevel Uncertainties

We present a novel stochastic optimal control framework that accounts for various types of uncertainties, with application to reentry trajectory planning. The formulation of the optimal trajectory control problem is presented in the context of an indirect method where a functional objective associated with the terminal vehicle speed is to be minimized. Uncertain input parameters in the optimal trajectory control model, including aerodynamic parameters and initial and terminal conditions, are modeled as aleatory random variables, while the statistical parameters of these aleatory distributions are themselves random variables. The parametric and model uncertainties are simultaneously propagated through an extended polynomial chaos expansion (EPCE) formalism. Several metrics are described to evaluate response statistics and presented as insightful tools for robust decision making. Specifically, the response probability density function (PDF) reflecting influence of both epistemic and aleatory uncertainties is obtained. By sampling over the random variables representing model error, an ensemble of response PDFs is generated and the associated failure probability is estimated as a random variable with its own polynomial chaos expansion. Besides, the sensitivity index functions of response PDF with respect to the statistical parameters are evaluated. Coupling parametric and model uncertainties within the EPCE framework leads to a robust and efficient paradigm for multilevel uncertainty propagation and PDF characterization in general optimal control problems.

Engineering↗

Using ‘heat tagging’ to understand the remote influence of atmospheric diabatic heating through long-range transport

In the circulating atmosphere, diabatic heating influences the potential temperature content of air masses far from where the heating occurs. Budgets that balance local diabatic sources with local heat divergence and storage do not retain information about this remote influence, which requires air-mass tracking. In this study, a process based, passive-tracer diagnostic, called heat tagging, is introduced. Heat tagging locally decomposes the potential temperature into contributions from the distinctive diabatic processes that generate them, wherever they occur. The distribution, variability and transport of atmospheric heat tags are studied in the relatively simple setting of an idealized aquaplanet model. Heat tags from latent heating are generated in the deep tropics and the midlatitude storm track and then transported throughout the troposphere. By contrast dry sensible heat tags are enhanced near the surface, and radiative tags are mainly confined to the stratosphere. As a result, local heat transport, variability of potential temperature and global poleward heat transport are dominated by heat tags related to latent heating, with heat tags from sensible and radiative heating only making contributions in the polar near surface and the stratosphere respectively. Heat tagging thus quantifies how water vapor and latent heating link the structural characteristics of the atmosphere and illustrates the importance of the hydrological cycle in poleward energy transport.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Parameter Optimization Toolbox for NS-3 network optimization, NS-3 Parameter Optimization Framework [SWR-18-60]

This simulation-based parameter optimization framework is proposed to tune parameters of different types of communication networks using ns-3 to achieve the optimal network performance. It consists of three main components: an ns-3 packet reporting module; a sampler running simulations with all possible parameter sets for the input parameter variables by using a parallel executor at each generation; and a hybrid optimization algorithm for tuning configurable parameters of hybrid designs and application parameter variables. The proposed hybrid metaheuristic optimization algorithm combines an evolutionary algorithm with a gradient descent function to quickly achieve an approximate globally optimum solution. This software is designed to be used in a multi-core processing Linux environment and run over a long duration of time. The execution time varies depending mainly upon the nature of the ns-3 configuration being simulated. This software includes a custom ns-3 QoS measurement application which must be included with the ns-3 source code during installation of the software.

Hasandka, Adarsh↗

Co-optimized machine-learned manifold models for large eddy simulation of turbulent combustion

Many modeling approaches in large eddy simulation (LES) of turbulent combustion employ a projection of the thermochemical state onto a low-dimensional manifold within state space to reduce the number of transported variables and hence computational cost. Flamelet-generated manifolds (FGM) is an example of a well-established, physics-based approach, but increasingly, principal component analysis (PCA) is being used as a data-driven method for generating manifold models. For both approaches, the nonlinear relationship between the location on the predefined manifold and the outputs of interest, such as reaction rates, can be tabulated or encoded in a neural network. This work proposes a new approach for manifold modeling that extends these existing approaches. A modified neural network structure simultaneously encodes the definition of the manifold variables, the nonlinear mapping, and the subfilter closure for LES. This allows all three of these aspects of the model to be co-optimized, generating a model from any source of combustion thermochemical state data. The manifold parameterizing variables are constrained to be linear combinations of species, as in FGM and PCA-based models, to aid in interpretability and implementation. For LES, subfilter variances of the manifold variables are also included as inputs. Two types of a priori analysis are performed to evaluate the new approach. In the first, the model is trained on data from one-dimensional premixed flames. In this case, the approach recovers the behavior of flamelet-based manifold approaches, and in fact slightly improves performance by identifying an optimized progress variable. The approach is also applied to data from direct numerical simulations of spherical ignition kernels in isotropic turbulence. For any specified manifold dimensionality, the new approach provides substantially lower prediction errors than a PCA-based model developed from the same data set. Additionally, the LES formulation of the new approach can provide accurate predictions for filtered reaction rates across a variety of filter widths.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Pyrogenic Organic Matter Laboratory Experiment: Aerobic Respiration and Geochemistry from Variably Inundated Stream Sediments (v3)

This dataset supports a broader study examining the effects of variable inundation and pyrogenic organic matter on ecosystem respiration. The dataset provides data generated from a laboratory batch experiment investigating the interaction between variable inundation conditions (wet and dry sediment) and pyrogenic organic matter (burned and unburned treatments). The contents include time series dissolved oxygen, sediment geochemistry data, and field metadata (including qualitative information on instream and river corridor characteristics). This data package was originally published in November 2025. It was updated in April 2026 (v2; new and modified files) and May 2026 (v3; modified files). See the change history section in the readme for more details For details on how to navigate data packages generated by this project, see https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/portals/PNNLRiverCorridorSFA/About. In addition to a readme, this data package also includes a file-level metadata (FLMD) file that describes each file and a data dictionary (DD) that describes all column/row headers and variable definitions. This dataset is comprised of (1) file-level metadata; (2) data dictionary; (3) field metadata; (4) international generic sample number (IGSN) mapping file; (5) readme; (6) field protocol; (7) sample name metadata; (8) an environmental context picture for the dry and inundated sampling locations; and (9) a subfolder with sample data from the sediment incubation experiment. The sample data subfolder contains (1) dissolved organic carbon (DOC, measured as non-purgeable organic carbon, NPOC); (2) total nitrogen (TN); (3) gravimetric moisture; (4) partial pressure and production rates of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide; (5) field wet sediment mass, dry sediment mass, water mass, and field wet sediment volume in incubation and sediment NPOC/TN vials; (6) methods codes; (7) respiration rates, pH, and temperature from after the incubation, raw time series dissolved oxygen and temperature, and a subfolder containing associated plots and scripts; (8) ions; (9) FTICR-MS methods; and (10) a subfolder of 12 Tesla (12T) FTICR-MS data. This folder contains the CoreMS processed data and three subfolders, one containing the .xml files, one containing the CoreMS output files, and the other containing instructions and scripts for processing the files in CoreMS (https://github.com/EMSL-Computing/CoreMS). All files are .csv, .pdf, .R, .xml, .html, .Rmd, .py, .cal, .json, or .jpg.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Technical and Economic Assessment of LWR Flexible Operation for Generation and Demand Balancing to Optimize Plant Revenue

With increased penetration of subsidized variable renewable energy (VRE) resources and competition from low natural gas prices, existing light water reactor (LWR) nuclear power plants (NPPs) are struggling to remain economically competitive. This work examines the potential economic competitiveness of various thermal energy storage (TES) technologies when coupled directly or indirectly with a NPP. To highlight their relative economic competitiveness, we contrast several energy storage solutions in stochastic dispatch optimization. We leverage data from recent work analyzing a range of TES technologies with varying capital costs, performance, and technology readiness level (TRL) to establish our case. We explore inserting these technologies into an electricity market with existing nuclear generation and large projected variable renewable energy (VRE) penetration. Although these technologies' projected capital costs may make them unlikely candidates in their current state, this analysis demonstrates a high-fidelity techno-economic analysis of energy storage. Furthermore, as the projected cost of energy storage technologies evolves, this analysis sets a precedent for similar future investigations. One region with projected trends that may be unfavorable for existing nuclear capacity is the New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) market. New York state’s baseload generation has been historically provided by fossil-fired and nuclear assets. However, amid economic pressures from subsidized VREs and low natural gas prices, the state has recently deactivated Indian Point nuclear power plant units 2 and 3. Furthermore, the state plans to meet its zero-emission generation target by 2040 by replacing fossil-fired capacity with significant investments in VRE resources like wind and solar photovoltaic (PV) and battery storage. Increased intermittent resource penetration lowers the baseload power requirement, adding further economic pressure to the state’s three remaining NPPs still in operation. With three NPPs still in operation in New York, this work analyzes potential economic benefits to NPPs on the New York grid when directly or indirectly coupled with various TES technologies. This work requires two modeling steps to analyze the potential economic benefits of various system configurations of the TES directly or indirectly coupled with nuclear. First, this analysis leverages capacity expansion modeling by experts at the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI). Using their deterministic capacity expansion model, U.S. Regional Economy, Greenhouse Gas, and Energy (US-REGEN), EPRI analysts evaluated the capacity and generation evolution of the New York state energy market under four projection scenarios. These four projection scenarios were developed to represent the potential evolution of the capacity and generation in NYISO from 2015 to 2050 under various economic, technology, and policy constraints. The results from these capacity expansion models are then used as boundary conditions in the second modeling step. The second modeling step uses the Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON) for a set of stochastic techno-economic analyses (STEAs) to investigate the potential increase in the economic viability of various configurations of the TES. With no current capacity expansion capabilities, HERON takes the data generated from US-REGEN for 2050 to generate synthetic load, solar, and wind data. Then HERON economically optimizes the capacity and dispatch of the various TES configurations. The potential economic benefit is the differential net present value (NPV) of the TES configurations from the no-TES baseline. As a stochastic techno-economic analysis package, HERON introduces uncertainty into the economic metrics, while US-REGEN trades resolution for reduced computational complexity. Using HERON also allows the modeling of direct thermal coupling, a feature not common in capacity and dispatch models. As expected, with high capital costs, the costs of introducing energy storage for all the technologies considered outweighed the potential economic benefit of this strategy for flexible plant operation. The benefit of this analysis is primarily in demonstrating a workflow that examines innovative solutions to increase NPP revenue via TES coupling. HERON’s stochastic capacity and dispatch optimization process used in this work has proven an effective tool in observing and evaluating the impact of introducing storage technologies in a grid energy system.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Ultra-broadband quadrature squeezing with thin-film lithium niobate nanophotonics

Squeezed light is a key quantum resource that enables quantum advantages for sensing, networking, and computing applications. The scalable generation and manipulation of squeezed light with integrated platforms are highly desired for the development of quantum technology with continuous variables. In this Letter, we demonstrate squeezed light generation with thin-film lithium niobate integrated photonics. Parametric down-conversion is realized with quasi-phase matching using ferroelectric domain engineering. With sub-wavelength mode confinement, efficient nonlinear processes can be observed with single-pass configuration. We measure 0.56 ± 0.09 dB quadrature squeezing (∼2.6 dB inferred on-chip). The single-pass configuration further enables the generation of squeezed light with large spectral bandwidth up to 7 THz. This work represents a significant step towards the on-chip implementation of continuous-variable quantum information processing.

Chen, Pao-Kang↗

Uncertainties in Local Intense Precipitation Flood Modeling

In the Task 1 report for the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) funded Local Intense Precipitation (LIP) Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment (PFHA) Pilot Study, the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) reviewed hydrologic and hydraulic modeling approaches for estimation of LIP flooding and their implementation in readily available simulation software packages (Prasad and Yuan 2020). NRC’s interest is in developing guidance for performing LIP PFHA at nuclear power plant (NPP) sites. This report describes the work done under Task 2 of the study that focused on describing uncertainties associated with LIP flood modeling. Two main types of uncertainties exist in LIP flood modeling: (1) aleatory uncertainties that arise from the inherent natural variability of the hydrometeorological system and (2) epistemic uncertainties that arise from the analysts’ incomplete knowledge of the hydrometeorological and site configuration. Principal sources for aleatory variability in LIP flood simulations at NPP sites include precipitation (i.e., magnitude, duration, and temporal distribution of LIP events), initial conditions (e.g., soil moisture content, stormwater drainage discharge, surface storage), boundary conditions (e.g., upstream discharge, downstream water surface elevations), and long-term temporal trends (e.g., climate change). This report describes approaches used for estimating the aleatory variability in precipitation including precipitation-frequency analysis, numerical weather prediction, and stochastic weather generation. Data sources that can be used to estimate aleatory variability in initial and boundary conditions are also described. Approaches to include effects of long-term trends like those from climate change into estimation of aleatory variability are summarized. Sources of epistemic uncertainty in LIP flood simulations at NPP sites include process representation (e.g., multiple approaches to represent runoff generation, stormwater drainage, and hydraulic routing), site configurations (e.g., site layout, flow features, status of temporary flood protection, blockage of drains), model resolution, and long-term temporal trends (e.g., known/planned site alterations, land-use changes at and in the vicinity of the site). The report describes alternative process representations (methods and models), particularly those implemented in the LIP flood simulation software packages reviewed in Task 1 report, and lists the associated model parameters. Approaches for estimating model parameters when surface and subsurface water exchanges occur are also described.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Addressing technical challenges in 100% variable inverter-based renewable energy power systems

Rapidly increasing levels of variable inverter-based renewable energy sources are quickly changing electric power systems and prompting questions about how the systems will be operated when renewable generation becomes the dominant technologies. Here, we review the status of this shifting paradigm in power systems throughout the world. We then review the implications of this shift, focusing on the rising challenges, and we provide an overview and technology-readiness classifications of some proposed mitigation strategies. Finally, we highlight outstanding questions that will require solutions to reach these ultrahigh shares of variable inverter-based renewable energy sources.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗