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DOE OSTI2022

Commercial, industrial, and institutional discount rate estimation for efficiency standards analysis: Sector-level data 1998–2021

Underlying each of the Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) federal appliance and equipment energy conservation standards are a set of complex analyses of the projected costs and benefits of regulation. Any new or amended standard must be designed to achieve significant additional energy conservation, provided that it is technologically feasible and economically justified (42 U.S.C. 6295(o)(2)(A)). DOE determines economic justification based on whether the benefits exceed the burdens, considering a variety of factors, including the economic impact of the standard on consumers of the product and the savings in lifetime operating cost compared to any increase in price or maintenance expenses (42 U.S.C. 6295(o)(2)(B)). As part of this determination, DOE conducts a Life-Cycle Cost (LCC) analysis, which models the combined impact of appliance first cost and operating cost changes on a representative commercial building sample in order to identify the fraction of customers achieving LCC savings or incurring net cost at the considered efficiency levels. Thus, the commercial discount rate value(s) used to calculate the present value of energy cost savings within the LCC model implicitly plays a role in estimating the economic impact of potential standard levels. This report provides an in-depth discussion of the commercial discount rate estimation process. It is an update to previous reports on estimating commercial discount rates from firm-level financial data (Fujita, 2016). Major topics covered in this report include: Discount rate estimation methods and rationale; -Data sources used and data limitations; -Discount rate distributions for use in standards analysis; -Discount rate estimation methods and distributions specific to the small business subgroup analysis. Going forward, this report will be updated as data allow and analyses necessitate.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2020

Optimal Efficiency and Operational Cost Savings: A Framework for Automated Rooftop PV Placement

Residential energy consumers are charged based on a utility rate structure, such as net metering or feed-in tariff. To lower consumers' electricity bills, expensive batteries are deployed to reduce the electricity fed from the grid during peak hours. However, strategic photovoltaic (PV) panel placement enables the reduction of operational energy cost while considering the spatial feasibility and efficiency for hosting rooftop PV. In this paper, we present a framework to automatically identify the optimal location of rooftop PV panels on residential buildings. Our framework integrates multiple workflows, including energy and environmental simulation, parametric modeling, and optimization to identify the ideal location of PV panels to balance the demand and supply at a building and community scale. These workflows are linked using the Grasshopper plug-in for Rhinoceros CAD software. The framework includes two different workflows, each satisfying a target for optimal PV placement: (a) maximizing PV panel efficiency, where users aim to maximize energy generation, and (b) minimizing operational energy cost, where "best'' panels are selected considering utility rates for operational energy cost. Our framework is demonstrated in a residential community in Fort Collins, Colorado, to generate the optimal PV placement for each of the two aforementioned targets. Results from the two workflows are compared to illustrate the effect of PV location and orientation on solar energy production efficiency and operational energy cost. The developed workflows are introduced as tools within the Grasshopper plug-in to investigate the solar potential of rooftop PV panels while taking into account factors such as contextual shading, utility rate structures, and buildings' energy demand profiles.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

DOE OSTI2023

SAS4A/SASSYS-1 Validation with EBR-II Tests Performed During the SHRT Testing Program (Rev. 2)

The EBR-II sodium-cooled fast reactor supported a wide range of fast reactor research activities. The final fifteen years of operations at EBR-II were used for experiments and tests to demonstrate the importance of passive safety in liquid metal reactors and the capability of such systems to provide strong passive responses during off-normal conditions. The Shutdown Heat Removal Test program at EBR-II provided test data supporting the validation of computer codes for design, licensing, and operation of LMRs, among other objectives. The program included nearly sixty tests, most of which were protected and unprotected loss of flow and loss of heat sink tests run at various initial powers and flow rates. This report documents the results of modeling and simulation of tests from the Shutdown Heat Removal Test program to support validation of Argonne’s SAS4A/SASSYS-1 fast reactor safety analysis code. SHRT-17 and SHRT-6 were protected loss of flow tests where a loss of electrical power to all sodium coolant pumps was simulated to demonstrate the effectiveness of natural circulation cooling characteristics. SHRT-45R, SHRT-39, and SHRT-43R were unprotected loss of flow tests where the control rod scram function of the plant protection system was disabled to demonstrate the effectiveness of EBR-II’s passive reactivity feedbacks. BOP-301 and BOP-302R were unprotected loss of heat sink tests that demonstrated how reactivity feedback effects driven by changes to the core inlet temperature can shut down the fission process. PICT-5/6 demonstrated how core power could be increased and decreased via changes in the intermediate sodium and feedwater flow rates. This validation activity leverages modeling and simulation efforts that originated under an International Atomic Energy Agency Coordinated Research Project for benchmark analysis of the EBR-II Shutdown Heat Removal Tests. The SAS4A/SASSYS-1 models originally developed for the CRP have been modernized to utilize new code features and modeling practices. Differences between the predicted and measured test data were explored and the causes of these differences were identified as being due to modeling approximations, uncertainty in transient component behavior, and instrumentation uncertainties. Overall, it was concluded that for all tests simulated there was good agreement between the flow, power, and temperature predictions and the measured data.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Modeling the PV System Level Economic Impact of PV Connector Failure Modes

Photovoltaic (PV) connectors must maintain mechanical integrity for over 25 years while operating under UV exposure, elevated temperature, and mechanical loading. Connector degradation increases with electrical resistance, leading to energy losses, unplanned downtime, and higher operation and maintenance (O&M) costs and in severe cases, safety risks from overhearing or arcing. Connector related failures remain among the most frequent causes of disruption in utility-scale PV (UPV) systems, yet their lifetime economic impacts are poorly quantified. This work presents a techno-economic analysis (TEA) framework that links identified connector failure modes to system level energy losses and lifetime cost impacts using identified resistance measurements and failure rates from 6,2761 PV connectors inspected. Connector failures increase system level O&M costs, raising LCOE by roughly 5%. Downtime driven availability losses dominate economic impact. Resistance-driven I2R and IV-curve losses are secondary, but remain non-negligible. Thermal damage, bend-radius violations, and loose connections drive the majority of LCOE uplift Improving connector reliability through better installation quality, inspection, and design can meaningfully reduce lost energy, O&M costs, and LCOE.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS1987

Net ozone photochemical production over the eastern and central North Pacific as inferred from GTE/CITE 1 observations during fall 1983

The role of photochemistry in the budget of tropospheric ozone is studied. Measurements of O3, NO, CO, H2O vapor, and temperature obtained during the fall of 1983 during the GTE/CITE project over the eastern and central North Pacific Ocean are analyzed. The effect of altitude on the measurements is discussed. The analysis reveals a correlation between ozone and NO levels; both increase in concentration and variability with altitude. It is observed that an additional source of secondary importance associated wih CO-rich air parcels exists. A photochemical model is utilized to calculate the net rate of ozone production by photochemical reactions. A net photochemical source of ozone in the free troposphere and a net sink in the boundary layer are detected. The relation between the ozone source in the free troposphere and NO is examined. It is estimated that photochemistry provides a net ozone source to the free troposphere overlying the eastern and central North Pacific Ocean of about 5 x 10 to the 10th molecules/sq cm sec and a net sink of ozone to the boundary layer overlying this region of about 3 x 10 to the 10th molecules/sq cm sec.

Chameides, W. L.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Effect of Microgravity on Sinorhizobium meliloti: Initial Results from the SyNRGE Experiment

SyNRGE (Symbiotic Nodulation in a Reduced Gravity Environment) was a sortie mission on STS-135 in the Biological Research in Canisters (BRIe) hardware to study the effect of microgravity on a plant-microbe symbiosis resulting in biological nitrogen fixation. Medicago truncatula, a model species of the legume family, was innoculated with its bacterial symbiont, Sinorhizobium meliloti, to observe early events associated with infection and nodulation in Petri Dish Fixation Units (PDFUs). Two sets of experiments were conducted in orbit and in 24-hour delayed ground controls. Experiment one was designed to determine if S. meliloti infect M. truncatula and initiate physiological changes associated with nodule formation. Roots of five-day-old M. truncatula cultivar Jemalong A17 (Enodll::gus) were innoculated 24 hr before launch with either S. meliloti strain 1021 or strain ABS7 and integrated into BRIC-PDFU hardware placed in a 4 C Cold Bag for launch on Atlantis. Innoculated plants and uninoculated controls were maintained in the dark at ambient temperature in the middeck of STS-135 for 11 days before fixation in RNA/ate/M by crew activation of the PDFU. Experiment two was designed to determine if microgravity altered the process of bacterial infection and host plant nodule formation. Seeds of two M. truncatula cultivar Jemalong A17 lines, the Enodll::gus used in experiment 1, and SUNN, a super-nodulating mutant of A17, were germinated on orbit for 11 days in the middeck cabin and returned to Earth alive inside of BRIC-PDFU's at 4 C S. meliloti strains 1021 and ABS7 were cultivated separately in broth culture on orbit and also returned to Earth alive. After landing, flight- and ground-grown plants and bacteria were transferred from BRIC-PDFU's into Nunc(TradeMark) 4-well plates for reciprocity crosses. Rates of plant growth and nodule development on Buffered Nodulation Medium (lacking nitrogen) were measured for 14 days. Bacteria cultivated in microgravity in the presence or absence of M. truncatula were characterized by phenotype microarray (PM) analysis of over 1,000 phenotypes including the utilization of carbon, nitrogen, phosphate, and sulfur sources; growth stimulation/inhibition by nutrients, osmolytes, and metabolic inhibitors; and antibiotic susceptibility. (Research supported by NASA ESMD/Advance Capabilities Division grant NNX10AR0

Roberts, Michael S.↗

DOE OSTI2024

A data-driven framework for predicting machining stability: employing simulated data, operational modal analysis, and enhanced transfer learning

Chatter, a self-excited vibration phenomenon, presents a significant challenge in machining operations, particularly in high-speed milling, where it can degrade tool life, reduce material removal efficiency, and compromise workpiece quality. Addressing this challenge requires a reliable predictive model that can accommodate the complex dynamics of various machining scenarios. This study introduces a novel, data-driven approach to predicting machining stability, leveraging over 140,000 simulated datasets and employing advanced techniques such as operational modal analysis (OMA), enhanced transfer learning (TL), and receptance coupling substructure analysis (RCSA). By integrating these methodologies, the framework effectively classifies and predicts chatter across diverse operational modes, achieving robust and accurate outcomes. Our model utilizes a Random Forest (RF) classifier trained with the comprehensive dataset, which demonstrates substantial improvements in both predictive accuracy and robustness. Specifically, the RF model achieved an accuracy rate of 85%, an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.90, and an F1 score of 0.88, underscoring its capability to adapt to varying machining configurations. These results highlight the framework’s potential to enhance operational efficiency and machining quality by providing reliable chatter predictions across a broad range of machining parameters. In conclusion, this research thus offers a significant advancement in predictive maintenance for machining processes, enabling more stable and efficient manufacturing operations.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS2019

Reusable In-Space Transportation Architecture Options for Human Mars Expeditions

NASA has been investigating the use of Solar Electric Propulsion, Chemical Propulsion, and Nuclear Thermal Propulsion systems to deliver crew and cargo to Mars orbit in support of expeditions to the Martian surface. In order to evaluate the effect of the selection of in-space transportation options on a series of human Mars missions across multiple opportunities, campaign level analysis must be performed and the transportation options must be evaluated using the same set of ground rules and assumptions to provide equal comparison. In this study, a comparison of three in-space transportation options was shown from a campaign level perspective. Campaign level metrics such as total launch mass, launch vehicle launch rate, and total launch vehicle required are presented to show how the different transportation systems perform to field a series of Mars missions across multiple mission opportunities. Each transportation option was utilized to perform three crew roundtrip missions to Mars, with supporting cargo missions starting in 2029, the first crewed mission to Mars in 2035. The transportation options each have strengths and weaknesses from a campaign and strategic investment point of view, as evident by the comparison between the total launch mass and the total number of launch vehicles required. While the analysis shown in this study provides an initial comparison between the transportation options, significant challenges still exists for each options in terms of the detailed mission operations and the feasibility of all of the assumptions.

Chai, Patrick R.↗

DOE OSTI2020

NMDQi Thermal-hydraulic Optimization, Analysis, and Scoping Tool (TOAST)

The Thermal-hydraulic Optimization, Analysis, and Scoping Tool (TOAST) is developed to support the thermal-hydraulic aspects for the design of optimal irradiation vehicles for the Nuclear Materials Discovery and Qualification initiative (NMDQi). TOAST is currently a MATLAB-based tool that utilizes a simplified steady-state analytical model where a radial thermal resistance circuit is utilized to account for conduction through up to 2 capsules, a gas gap, a thermal bond, a sample cladding, and a sample, as well as the convection from a water coolant outside the capsules. The geometry is discretized axially along the user-defined height of a basket with a user-defined number of points/nodes, essentially turning TOAST into a semi-2D heat transfer analysis utility for cylindrical irradiation vehicles with practically any configuration, solving for temperatures radially at multiple axial locations. TOAST utilizes a Graphical User Interface (GUI) in-which a user can define the geometrical layout, the materials utilized for each component, the coolant characteristics, and the required solution. The user can define the geometry by inputting the diameters, thicknesses, and heights for each component, whereas the materials are defined via the user-provided constant or variable thermal conductivities. The user can select the coolant's inlet temperature, pressure, and the pressure drop across the height of the problem (which is used to calculate the velocity of the flow). Finally, the user can choose to solve for a sample heat generation rate limit by inputting temperature limits for the sample and capsules or can choose to purely solve for the axial temperature distributions of each component by inputting a pre-selected heat generation rate. Either way, TOAST provides the user with axial temperature distributions of all the components including the coolant, and the heat generation rate limit as well as the maximum outlet coolant temperature. The user can also choose to do one of 6 sensitivity analyses in TOAST. The sensitivity analyses yield plots of the sensitivity of the heat generation rate limit, the maximum coolant temperature, and the pressure limit for the annular components due to perturbations in 1-2 unknown variables based on the selected sensitivity analysis. Benchmarks between computations in TOAST and equivalent 2D axis symmetric ABAQUS models are presented, showing that TOAST results are within less than 3% of ABAQUS results in most cases, and a maximum of 8% difference in some cases. The benchmarks also revealed that this uncertainty is tied to the selection of an appropriate Nusselt number correlation and appropriate thermal conductivities, which the user can do from the GUI. Regardless, TOAST is demonstrated as a computationally efficient, highly accessible, and accurate utility for optimization and scoping s of studies different irradiation vehicles.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Nucleation Rate Theory for Coordination Number: Elucidating Water-Mediated Formation of a Zigzag Na 2 SO 4 Morphology

Predicting and controlling nanostructure formation during nucleation can pave the way to synthesizing novel energy materials via crystallization. However, such control over nucleation and crystallization remains challenging due to an inadequate understanding of critical factors that govern evolving atomistic structures and dynamics. Here, in this paper, we utilize coordination number as a reaction coordinate and rate theory to investigate how sodium sulfate, commonly known as a phase-change energy material, nucleates in a supersaturated aqueous solution. In conjunction with ab initio and force field-based molecular dynamics simulation, the rate theoretical analysis reveals that sodium sulfate from an initially dissolved metastable state transits to a heterogeneous mixture of prenucleated clusters and finally to a large cylindrical zigzag morphology. Measurements of Raman spectra and their ab initio modeling confirm that this nucleated morphology contains a few waters for every sulfate. Rate processes such as solvent exchange and desolvation exhibit high sensitivity to the evolving prenucleation/nucleation structures, providing a means to distinguish between critical nucleation precursors. Desolvation and forming the first-shell interionic coordination structure via monomer-by-monomer addition around sulfates are found to explain the formation of large nuclei. Thus, a detailed understanding of the step-by-step structure formation across scales has been achieved. This can be leveraged to predict nucleation-related structures and dynamics and potentially control the synthesis of novel phase-change materials for energy applications.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2023

The dynamical tides of spinning Newtonian stars

ABSTRACT We carefully develop the framework required to model the dynamical tidal response of a spinning neutron star in an inspiralling binary system, in the context of Newtonian gravity, making sure to include all relevant details and connections to the existing literature. The tidal perturbation is decomposed in terms of the normal oscillation modes, used to derive an expression for the effective Love number which is valid for any rotation rate. In contrast to previous work on the problem, our analysis highlights subtle issues relating to the orthogonality condition required for the mode-sum representation of the dynamical tide and shows how the prograde and retrograde modes combine to provide the overall tidal response. Utilizing a slow-rotation expansion, we show that the dynamical tide (the effective Love number) is corrected at first order in rotation, whereas in the case of the static tide (the static Love number) the rotational corrections do not enter until second order.

Pnigouras, P. (ORCID:0000000318959431)↗

DOE OSTI2020

Accelerating Large-Format Metal Additive Manufacturing: How Controls R&D is Driving Speed, Scale, and Efficiency

This article highlights work at Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s Manufacturing Demonstration Facility to develop closed-loop, feedback control for laser-wire based Directed Energy Deposition, a form of metal Big Area Additive Manufacturing (m-BAAM), a process being developed in partnership with GKN Aerospace specifically for the production of Ti-6Al-4V pre-forms for aerospace components. A large-scale structural demonstrator component is presented as a case-study in which not just control, but the entire 3D printing workflow for m-BAAM is discussed in detail, including design principles for large-format metal AM, toolpath generation, parameter development, process control, and system operation, as well as post-print net-shape geometric analysis and finish machining. In terms of control, a multi-sensor approach has been utilized to measure both layer height and melt pool size, and multiple modes of closed-loop control have been developed to manipulate process parameters (laser power, print speed, deposition rate) to control these variables. Layer height control and melt pool size control have yielded excellent local (intralayer) and global (component-level) geometry control, and the impact of melt pool size control in particular on thermal gradients and material properties is the subject of continuing research. Further, these modes of control have allowed the process to advance to higher deposition rates (exceeding 7.5 lb/hr), larger parts (1-meter scale), shorter build times, and higher overall efficiency. The control modes are examined individually, highlighting their development, demonstration, and lessons learned, and it is shown how they operate concurrently to enable the printing of a large-scale, near net shape Ti-6Al-4V component.

Gibson, Brian↗

DOE OSTI2024

Offline Power Systems Applications Enabled by Phasor Measurement Units: Technical Assistance to the Power Sectors of Southeast Asia

This report provides a brief overview of several offline (non-real-time) applications facilitated by high-resolution time-synchronized measurements recorded by phasor measurement units (PMUs). The high reporting rate and time-synchronization of PMU records provide a detailed view of power system dynamics, enabling electric utilities to obtain a better understanding of their systems. In this report, the following applications have been reviewed: Power plant model validation, System model validation, Ringdown oscillation analysis, Frequency response analysis, Postmortem analysis of disturbance events Along with a brief technical background of the applications above, applicable North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) standards have been discussed, and examples of implementation in North American organizations have been provided. Implementing several of the discussed applications may need a preliminary stage of data gathering from multiple entities, and several frameworks and process flows have been formulated by organizations around the world for this purpose. However, the data-gathering stage has not been considered in the scope of the present report.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

NASA NTRS1974

Application of ERTS-1 data to the protection and management of New Jersey's coastal environment

The author has identified the following significant results. The principal thrust of this ERTS-1 experiment is to develop quasi-operational information products from analysis of ERTS-1 imagery and collateral aerial photography and to apply these products to the practical regulation, protection, and management of New Jersey's coastal environment. Incorporated into this goal is the development of procedures for the operational use of ERTS-1 data products within New Jersey's Department of Environmental Protection. Analysis and product preparation for operational needs has centered on four major coastal resource problem areas: detection of land use changes in the coastal zone; siting of ocean outfalls; monitoring of offshore waste disposal; and calculation of recession rates along the Atlantic Shore. The relative utility and estimated monetary benefits derived from ERTS and aircraft imagery for each problem area have been determined. Of equal importance is the development to a capability within the State to use and understand remote sensor-derived information, and the application of this information to meet the requirements of current and anticipated coastal zone legislation.

Yunghans, R. S.↗

NASA NTRS1974

Application of ERTS-1 data to the protection and management of New Jersey's coastal environment

The author has identified the following significant results. Quasi-operational information products for coastal zone management have been prepared using ERTS-1 imagery and collateral aerial photography. These products were applied to the practical regulation, protection, and management of New Jersey's coastal environment. Procedures were developed for the operational use of ERTS-1 data products within New Jersey's Department of Environmental Protection. Successful analysis and product preparation for operational needs centered on four major coastal resource problem areas: (1) detection of environmental changes in coastal areas, (2) siting of ocean outfalls, (3) monitoring of offshore waste disposal, and (4) calculation of recession rates along the Atlantic Shore. The utility and monetary benefits derived from ERTS and aircraft imagery for each problem area have been determined. The NJDEP estimates the possibility of $620,000 yearly savings through the use of an operational ERTS system and a one-time savings of $2.8 million on current or planned projects if a truly operational ERTS type satellite were available.

Yunghans, R. S.↗

NASA NTRS1982

Development, test and evaluation of a computerized procedure for using Landsat data to estimate spring small grains acreage

A number of methods which can provide information concerning crop acreages on the basis of a utilization of multispectral scanner (MSS) data require for their implementation a comparatively large amount of labor. The present investigation is concerned with a project designed to improve the efficiency of analysis through increased automation. The Caesar technique was developed to realize this objective. The processability rates of the Caesar procedure versus the historical state-of-the-art proportion estimation procedures were determined in an experiment. Attention is given to the study site, the aggregation technology, the results of the aggregation test, and questions of error characterization. It is found that the Caesar procedure, which has been developed for the spring small grains region of North America, is highly efficient and provides accurate results.

Mohler, R. R. J.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Introduction to the Space Physics Analysis Network (SPAN)

The Space Physics Analysis Network or SPAN is emerging as a viable method for solving an immediate communication problem for the space scientist. SPAN provides low-rate communication capability with co-investigators and colleagues, and access to space science data bases and computational facilities. The SPAN utilizes up-to-date hardware and software for computer-to-computer communications allowing binary file transfer and remote log-on capability to over 25 nationwide space science computer systems. SPAN is not discipline or mission dependent with participation from scientists in such fields as magnetospheric, ionospheric, planetary, and solar physics. Basic information on the network and its use are provided. It is anticipated that SPAN will grow rapidly over the next few years, not only from the standpoint of more network nodes, but as scientists become more proficient in the use of telescience, more capability will be needed to satisfy the demands.

Green, J. L.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Anisotropic constitutive model for nickel base single crystal alloys: Development and finite element implementation

A tool for the mechanical analysis of nickel base single crystal superalloys, specifically Rene N4, used in gas turbine engine components is developed. This is achieved by a rate dependent anisotropic constitutive model implemented in a nonlinear three dimensional finite element code. The constitutive model is developed from metallurigical concepts utilizing a crystallographic approach. A non Schmid's law formulation is used to model the tension/compression asymmetry and orientation dependence in octahedral slip. Schmid's law is a good approximation to the inelastic response of the material in cube slip. The constitutive equations model the tensile behavior, creep response, and strain rate sensitivity of these alloys. Methods for deriving the material constants from standard tests are presented. The finite element implementation utilizes an initial strain method and twenty noded isoparametric solid elements. The ability to model piecewise linear load histories is included in the finite element code. The constitutive equations are accurately and economically integrated using a second order Adams-Moulton predictor-corrector method with a dynamic time incrementing procedure. Computed results from the finite element code are compared with experimental data for tensile, creep and cyclic tests at 760 deg C. The strain rate sensitivity and stress relaxation capabilities of the model are evaluated.

Dame, L. T.↗