Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “uncertain systems”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 325 records · Page 18
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Modular Autonomous Experimentation for Biological Applications

The Modular Autonomous Research System (MARS) was created to address a key challenge in scientific discovery: experiments are often slow, require significant manual labor, and generate data that is not easily integrated across different tools. This limits how quickly scientists can explore new materials, processes, and chemical reactions. Our motivation was to design a system that makes research faster, more reliable, and adaptable by combining automation with artificial intelligence. By doing so, we aimed to reduce human error, accelerate discovery, and allow researchers to quickly test many possibilities that would otherwise take months or years. Our approach was to build a flexible platform that connects laboratory robots, measurement instruments, and a central data system, all guided by artificial intelligence. MARS integrates liquid handling robots, robotic arms, and plate readers with an intelligent decision-making system that chooses the most informative experiments to run next. This creates a closed loop where experiments are performed automatically, the data is analyzed in real time, and new conditions are immediately tested. Through this work, we demonstrated that MARS can carry out multiple experiments with little or no human intervention, adapt to different scientific problems, and handle uncertain or noisy measurements in a robust way. The results show that modular and intelligent automation can significantly accelerate the pace of discovery, providing a model for future self-driving laboratories. This approach addresses the growing scientific need for adaptable, data-driven research platforms that can keep up with the complexity and scale of modern science.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

From Oxo to Oxyl to Biradical: Systematic Multireference Calculations of Methane Activation at MOF Nodes

Methane C–H activation at transition-metal sites often involves electronic structures that challenge conventional single-reference electronic structure descriptions. Although Kohn–Sham density functional theory (DFT) is widely used to study catalytic trends, its reliability for reactions involving strongly correlated species remains uncertain. Here we present a systematic multireference investigation of methane activation at metal–organic framework (MOF) node catalysts across the 3d transition-metal series. We introduce an automated workflow for active space selection to enable consistent application of multireference methods, including multiconfiguration pair-density functional theory and n-electron valence state perturbation theory, to these catalytic systems. These calculations show substantial static correlation in the C–H activation reaction step and predict activation barriers that differ from DFT by 30–70 kJ mol–1, with DFT often qualitatively disagreeing in barrier height trends across transition metals. Analysis of multireference wave functions shows that reactivity is governed by the electronic structure of the M–O moiety along a continuum from metal–oxo to oxyl radical and O biradical character. Increased oxygen-centered spin density and weakened M–O bonding are identified as descriptors of catalytic activity which correlate with lower activation barriers.

Wardzala, Jacob↗
DOE OSTI2024

Machine Learning Driven Sensitivity Analysis of E3SM Land Model Parameters for Wetland Methane Emissions

Methane (CH 4 ) is globally the second most critical greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide, contributing to 16%–25% of the observed atmospheric warming. Wetlands are the primary natural source of methane emissions globally. However, wetland methane emission estimates from biogeochemistry models contain considerable uncertainty. One of the main sources of this uncertainty arises from the numerous uncertain model parameters within various physical, biological, and chemical processes that influence methane production, oxidation, and transport. Sensitivity Analysis (SA) can help identify critical parameters for methane emission and achieve reduced biases and uncertainties in future projections. This study performs SA for 19 selected parameters responsible for critical biogeochemical processes in the methane module of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) land model (ELM). The impact of these parameters on various CH 4 fluxes is examined at 14 FLUXNET- CH 4 sites with diverse vegetation types. Given the extensive number of model simulations needed for global variance-based SA, we employ a machine learning (ML) algorithm to emulate the complex behavior of ELM methane biogeochemistry. We found that parameters linked to CH 4 production and diffusion generally present the highest sensitivities despite apparent seasonal variation. Comparing simulated emissions from perturbed parameter sets against FLUXNET-CH 4 observations revealed that better performances can be achieved at each site compared to the default parameter values. This presents a scope for further improving simulated emissions using parameter calibration with advanced optimization techniques.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Reduced CO 2 uptake and growing nutrient sequestration from slowing overturning circulation

Current Earth system models (ESMs) project dramatic slowing (28–42% by 2100) of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and Southern Meridional Overturning Circulation (SMOC) across a range of climate scenarios, with a complete shutdown of SMOC possible by year 2300. Slowing meridional overturning circulation (MOC) differentially impacts the ocean biological and solubility carbon pumps, leaving the net impact on ocean carbon uptake uncertain. Here using a suite of ESMs, we show that slowing MOC reduces anthropogenic carbon uptake by the solubility pump but increases deep-ocean storage of carbon and nutrients by the biological pump. The net effect reduces ocean uptake of anthropogenic CO 2 . The deep-ocean nutrient sequestration will increasingly depress global-scale, marine net primary production over time. As a result, MOC slowdown represents a positive feedback that could extend or intensify peak-warmth climate conditions on multi-century timescales.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Building Energy Systems as Behind-the-Meter Resources for Grid Services: Intelligent load control and transactive control and coordination

To mitigate the impacts of climate change, significant reductions in emissions from all sectors of the economy are needed. The electricity generation sector has embarked on an ambitious plan to include renewable generation as part of its decarbonization efforts, and many cities and states are mandating all-electric buildings. While renewable resources will reduce emissions, they are not dispatchable, they vary temporally, and their generation is uncertain. Under these conditions, traditional approaches to managing grid reliability, where supply follows demand, will not be efficient and may not be cost-effective. Further, there is a more efficient alternative for balancing the supply–demand imbalance and for absorbing variability and uncertainty of renewable energy using distributed energy resources (DERs) as opposed to reserve generation. Because buildings consume more than 75% of total U.S. annual electricity consumption, behind-the-meter (BTM) DERs have a load flexibility of 77 GW of power and 90 GWh of virtual energy storage capacity nationwide (Kalsi, 2017). Therefore, some portion of the supply–demand imbalance can be met by these DERs at a lower cost compared to business-as-usual solutions.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Expanded modelling scenarios to understand the role of offshore wind in decarbonizing the United States

An assessment of decarbonization pathways in energy models reveals fundamental limitations in representing factors that are relevant for practical decision-making. Although these modelling limitations are widely acknowledged, their impact on the deployment of individual power generation types is not well understood. As a result, the societal value from such generation types could be vastly misrepresented. Here we explore a wide spectrum of factors that impact offshore wind deployment in the United States using a detailed capacity expansion model. Many factors prescribe a large future role for offshore wind, yet this diverges from what models often show. We extend the typically narrow modelling context through high spatial resolution, several cost and transmission possibilities and various energy-sector policies. Further, we estimate offshore wind to constitute 1-8% (31-256 gigawatts) of total US generation by 2050. This wide range suggests an uncertain but potentially important regional role. Our expansive scenarios demonstrate how to address many limitations of decarbonization modelling.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Influence of ENSO Diversity on Future Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences seasonal Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) activity by impacting environmental conditions important for TC genesis. However, the influence of future climate change on the teleconnection between ENSO and Atlantic TCs is uncertain, as climate change is expected to impact both ENSO and the mean climate state. We used the Weather Research and Forecasting Model on a tropical channel domain to simulate 5-member ensembles of Atlantic TC seasons in historical and future climates under different ENSO conditions. Experiments were forced with idealized sea surface temperature configurations based on the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble representing: a monthly varying climatology, eastern Pacific El Niño, central Pacific El Niño, and La Niña. The historical simulations produced fewer Atlantic TCs during eastern Pacific El Niño compared to central Pacific El Niño, consistent with observations and other modeling studies. For each ENSO state, the future simulations produced a similar teleconnection with Atlantic TCs as in the historical simulations. Specifically, La Niña continues to enhance Atlantic TC activity, and El Niño continues to suppress Atlantic TCs, with greater suppression during eastern Pacific El Niño compared to central Pacific El Niño. In addition, we found a decrease in the Atlantic TC frequency in the future relative to historical regardless of ENSO state, which was associated with a future increase in northern tropical Atlantic vertical wind shear and a future decrease in the zonal tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) gradient, corresponding to a more El Niño–like mean climate state. Our results indicate that ENSO will remain useful for seasonal Atlantic TC prediction in the future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Impacts of sea ice leads on sea salt aerosols and atmospheric chemistry in the Arctic

Abstract. The processes contributing to Arctic cold-season (November–April) sea salt aerosols (SSAs) remain uncertain. Observations from coastal Alaska suggest that emissions from open leads in sea ice, which are not included in climate models, may play a dominant role. Their Arctic-wide significance has not yet been quantified. Here, we create an emission parameterization of SSAs from leads by combining satellite data of lead area (the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer–Earth Observation System (AMSR-E) product) and a chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem) to quantify pan-Arctic SSA emissions from leads during the cold season from 2002 to 2008 and to predict their impacts on atmospheric chemistry, evaluating the results of our simulated SSAs against in situ observations. The AMSR-E product detects large leads with certainty (> 3 km in size), and, hence, our study is limited to quantifying emissions from large leads. Lead emissions vary seasonally and interannually. Simulated total monthly SSA emissions increase by 1.1 %–1.8 % (≥60° N latitude) and 5.6 %–7.5 % (≥75° N) for the 2002–2008 cold seasons. SSA concentrations primarily increase at the location of leads, where standard model concentrations are low. GEOS-Chem overestimates SSA concentrations at Arctic sites compared to ground observations, even when lead emissions are not included, suggesting underestimation of SSA sinks and/or uncertainties in SSA emissions from blowing snow and the open ocean. Multi-year monthly mean surface bromine atom (Br) concentrations increase by 2.8 %–8.8 % due to SSAs from leads for the 2002–2008 cold seasons. Changes in ozone concentrations are negligible. While leads contribute < 10 % to Arctic-wide SSA emissions in the years 2002–2008, these emissions occur in regions of low background aerosol concentrations. Leads may increase in frequency under future climate change, which could increase SSA emissions from leads.

Emme, Erin J. (ORCID:0000000268406352)↗
DOE OSTI2022

Uncertainty in Annual Energy Resulting from Uncertain Irradiance Measurements

We report an analysis quantifying the contribution to uncertainty in annual energy projections from uncertainty in ground-measured irradiance. Uncertainty in measured irradiance is quantified for eight instruments by the difference from a well maintained, secondary standard pyranometer which is regarded as truthful. We construct a statistical model of irradiance uncertainty and apply the model to generate a sample of 100 annual time series of irradiance for each instrument. The sample is propagated through a common performance model for a reference photovoltaic system to quantify variation in annual energy. Although the measured irradiance varies from the reference by a few percent (standard deviation of 1-2%) the uncertainty in annual energy is on the order of a fraction of one percent. We propose a model for a factor that represents uncertainty in modeled annual energy that arises from uncertainty in ground-measured irradiance.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Doubling protected land area may be inefficient at preserving the extent of undeveloped land and could cause substantial regional shifts in land use

Abstract Projection of land use and land‐cover change is highly uncertain yet drives critical estimates of carbon emissions, climate change, and food and bioenergy production. We use new, spatially explicit land availability data in conjunction with a model sensitivity analysis to estimate the effects of additional land protection on land use and land cover. The land availability data include protected land and agricultural suitability and is incorporated into the Moirai land data system for initializing the Global Change Analysis Model. Overall, decreasing land availability is relatively inefficient at preserving undeveloped land while having considerable regional land‐use impacts. Current amounts of protected area have little effect on land and crop production estimates, but including the spatial distribution of unsuitable (i.e., unavailable) land dramatically shifts bioenergy production from high northern latitudes to the rest of the world, compared with uniform availability. This highlights the importance of spatial heterogeneity in understanding and managing land change. Approximately doubling the current protected area to emulate a 30% protected area target may avoid land conversion by 2050 of less than half the newly protected extent while reducing bioenergy feedstock land by 10.4% and cropland and grazed pasture by over 3%. Regional bioenergy land may be reduced (increased) by up to 46% (36%), cropland reduced by up to 61%, pasture reduced by up to 100%, and harvested forest reduced by up to 35%. Only a few regions show notable gains in some undeveloped land types of up to 36%. Half of the regions can reach the target using only unsuitable land, which would minimize impacts on agriculture but may not meet conservation goals. Rather than focusing on an area target, a more robust approach may be to carefully select newly protected land to meet well‐defined conservation goals while minimizing impacts to agriculture.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Robust cooperative control strategy for a platoon of connected and autonomous vehicles against sensor errors and control errors simultaneously in a real-world driving environment

In a real-world driving environment, a platoon of connected and autonomous vehicles (CAVs) is subject to many internal and external disturbances, resulting in uncertain vehicle dynamics. In general, the disturbances can be categorized into two types: disturbances due to vehicle sensor errors (e.g., GPS error) and disturbances due to vehicle control errors (e.g., actuator delay). In the literature, many control strategies have been proposed to improve the robustness of the CAV platoon against uncertain vehicle dynamics induced by these disturbances. However, most of these strategies only consider one type of disturbance and cannot tackle both types of disturbances simultaneously. Furthermore, they are designed to maximize the benefits of each vehicle in the platoon independently, which can deteriorate the performance of the platoon. Here, to address these problems, this study proposes a robust cooperative control (RCC) strategy to maneuver the vehicles in the platoon cooperatively to counteract the impacts of both types of disturbances. The RCC strategy is developed based on a minimax problem, where the maximization subproblem seeks to find the worst inputs for the uncertainty terms in the vehicle dynamics equation to minimize the platoon performance, while the minimization subproblem seeks to find the optimal control decisions for all subsequent vehicles to maximize the platoon performance in the worst case. To solve the minimax problem, this study proposes a globally convergent solution algorithm. It can solve the minimax problem very efficiently to enable real time deployment of the RCC strategy. Numerical application indicates that compared to the existing methods, the RCC strategy can dramatically improve the robustness of the CAV platoon against the uncertain vehicle dynamics induced by both vehicle state detection errors and vehicle control errors. Therefore, it can maneuver the CAV platoon safely and efficiently in a real-world driving environment.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Neglecting Model Parametric Uncertainty Can Drastically Underestimate Flood Risks

Abstract Floods drive dynamic and deeply uncertain risks for people and infrastructures. Uncertainty characterization is a crucial step in improving the predictive understanding of multi‐sector dynamics and the design of risk‐management strategies. Current approaches to estimate flood hazards often sample only a relatively small subset of the known unknowns, for example, the uncertainties surrounding the model parameters. This approach neglects the impacts of key uncertainties on hazards and system dynamics. Here we mainstream a recently developed method for Bayesian inference to calibrate a computationally expensive distributed hydrologic model. We compare three different calibration approaches: (a) stepwise line search, (b) precalibration or screening, and (c) the Fast Model Calibrations (FaMoS) approach. FaMoS deploys a particle‐based approach that takes advantage of the massive parallelization afforded by modern high‐performance computing systems. We quantify how neglecting parametric uncertainty and data discrepancy can drastically underestimate extreme flood events and risks. Precalibration improves prediction skill score over a stepwise line search. The Bayesian calibration improves the uncertainty characterization of model parameters and flood risk projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Commercial building loads providing ancillary services In PJM

The adoption of low carbon energy technologies such as variable renewable energy and electric vehicles, coupled with the efficacy of energy efficiency to reduce traditional base load has increased the uncertainty inherent in the net load shape. Handling this variability with slower, traditional resources leads to inefficient system dispatch, and in some cases may compromise reliability. Grid operators are looking to future energy technologies, such as automated demand response (DR), to provide capacity-based reliability services as the need for these services increase. While DR resources are expected to have the flexibility characteristics operators are looking for, demonstrations are necessary to build confidence in their capabilities. Additionally, building owners are uncertain of the monetary value and operational burden of providing these services. To address this, the present study demonstrates the ability of demand response resources providing two ancillary services in the PJM territory, synchronous reserve and regulation, using an OpenADR 2.0b signaling architecture. The loads under control include HVAC and lighting at a big box retail store and variable frequency fan loads. The study examines performance characteristics of the resource: the speed of response, communications latencies in the architecture, and accuracy of response. It also examines the frequency and duration of events and the value in the marketplace which can be used to examine if the opportunity is sufficient to entice building owners to participate.

MacDonald, Jason↗
DOE OSTI2022

Choices in land representation materially affect modeled biofuel carbon intensity estimates

Estimates of biofuel carbon intensity are uncertain and depend on modeled land use change (LUC) emissions. While analysts have focused on economic and agronomic assumptions affecting the quantity of land converted, researchers have paid less attention to how models classify land into broad categories and designate some categories as ineligible for LUC. To explore the effect of these land representation attributes, we use three versions of a global human and Earth systems model, GCAM, and compute the “carbon intensity of land-use change” (CI-LUC) from increased U.S. corn ethanol production. We consider uncertainty in model parameters along with the choice of land representation and find the latter is one of the most influential parameters on estimated CI-LUC. A version of the model that protects 90% of non-commercial land reduced estimated CI-LUC by an average of 32% across Monte Carlo trials compared to our baseline model. Another version that mimics the GTAP-BIO-ADV land representation, which protects all non-commercial land, reduced CI-LUC by an average of 19%. The results of this experiment suggest that analyses of LUC that exclude non-commercial land categories or assume more land is protected than empirically justified underestimate biofuel induced LUC GHG emissions.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Integrating environmental understanding into freshwater floatovoltaic deployment using an effects hierarchy and decision trees

Abstract In an era of looming land scarcity and environmental degradation, the development of low carbon energy systems without adverse impacts on land and land-based resources is a global challenge. ‘Floatovoltaic’ energy systems—comprising floating photovoltaic (PV) panels over water—are an appealing source of low carbon energy as they spare land for other uses and attain greater electricity outputs compared to land-based systems. However, to date little is understood of the impacts of floatovoltaics on the hosting water body. Anticipating changes to water body processes, properties and services owing to floatovoltaic deployment represents a critical knowledge gap that may result in poor societal choices and water body governance. Here, we developed a theoretically-derived hierarchical effects framework for the assessment of floatovoltaic impacts on freshwater water bodies, emphasising ecological interactions. We describe how the presence of floatovoltaic systems may dramatically alter the air-water interface, with subsequent implications for surface meteorology, air-water fluxes and physical, chemical and biological properties of the recipient water body. We apply knowledge from this framework to delineate three response typologies—‘ magnitude’ , those for which the direction and magnitude of effect can be predicted; ‘ direction’ , those for which only the direction of effect can be predicted; and ‘ uncertain’ , those for which the response cannot be predicted—characterised by the relative importance of levels in the effects hierarchy. Illustrative decision trees are developed for an example water body response within each typology, specifically, evaporative water loss, cyanobacterial biomass, and phosphorus release from bed sediments, and implications for ecosystem services, including climate regulation, are discussed. Finally, the potential to use the new understanding of likely ecosystem perturbations to direct floatovoltaic design innovations and identify future research priorities is outlined, showcasing how inter-sectoral collaboration and environmental science can inform and optimise this low carbon, land-sparing renewable energy for ecosystem gains.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2023

Halo formation from Yukawa forces in the very early Universe

If long-range attractive forces exist and are stronger than gravity then cosmic halo formation can begin in the radiation-dominated era. We study a simple realization of this effect in a system where dark matter fermions have Yukawa interactions mediated by scalar particles, analogous to the Higgs boson in the standard model. We develop a self-consistent description of the system including exact background dynamics of the scalar field, and precise modeling of the fermion density fluctuations. For the latter, we provide accurate approximations for the linear growth as well as quantitative modeling of the nonlinear evolution using N-body simulations. We find that halo formation occurs exponentially fast and on scales substantially larger than simple estimates predict. Here, the final fate of these halos remains uncertain, but could be annihilation, dark stars, primordial black holes, or even the existence of galaxy-sized halos at matter-radiation equality. More generally, our results demonstrate the importance of mapping scalar-mediated interactions onto structure formation outcomes and constraints for beyond the standard model theories.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Rainbows and Climate Change: A tutorial on climate model diagnostics and parameterization

Earth System Models (ESMs) must represent processes below the grid scale of a model using representations (parameterizations) of physical and chemical processes. As a tutorial exercise to understand diagnostics and parameterization, this work presents a representation of rainbows for an ESM: the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2). Using the 'state' of the model, basic physical laws, and some assumptions, we generate a representation of this unique optical phenomena as a diagnostic output. Rainbow occurrence and it's possible changes are related to cloud occurrence and rain formation which are critical uncertainties for climate change prediction. The work highlights issues which are typical of many diagnostics parameterizations such as assumptions, uncertain parameters and the difficulty of evaluation against uncertain observations. Results agree qualitatively with limited available global 'observations' of Rainbows. Rainbows are seen in expected locations in the sub-tropics over the ocean where broken clouds and frequent precipitation occurs. The diurnal peak is in the morning over ocean and in the evening over land. The representation of rainbows is found to be quantitatively sensitive to the assumed amount of cloudiness and the amount of stratiform rain. Rainbows are projected to have decreased, mostly in the Northern Hemisphere, due to aerosol pollution effects increasing cloud coverage since 1850. In the future, continued climate change is projected to decrease cloud cover, associated with a positive cloud feedback. As a result the rainbow diagnostic projects that rainbows will increase in the future, with the largest changes at mid-latitudes. The diagnostic may be useful for assessing cloud parameterizations, and is an exercise in how to build and test parameterizations of atmospheric phenomena.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Flexibility Options: A Proposed Product for Managing Imbalance Risk

The presence of variable renewable energy resources with uncertain outputs in day-ahead electricity markets results in additional balancing needs in real-time. Addressing those needs cost-effectively and reliably within a competitive market with unbundled products is challenging as both the demand for and the availability of flexibility depends on day-ahead energy schedules. Existing approaches for reserve procurement usually rely either on oversimplified demand curves that do not consider how system conditions that particular day affect the value of flexibility, or on bilateral trading of hedging instruments that are not co-optimized with day-ahead schedules. This article proposes a new product, ‘Flexibility Options', to address these two limitations. The demand for this product is endogenously determined in the day-ahead market and it is met cost-effectively by considering real-time supply curves for product providers, which are co-optimized with the energy supply. As we illustrate with numerical examples and mathematical analysis, the product addresses the hedging needs of participants with imbalances cost-effectively, provides a less intermittent revenue stream for participants with flexible outputs, promotes value-driven pricing of flexibility, and ensures that the system operator is revenue-neutral. This article provides a comprehensive design that can be further tested and applied in large-scale systems.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗