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Central East Pacific Flight Routing

With the introduction of the Federal Aviation Administration s Advanced Technology and Oceanic Procedures system at the Oakland Oceanic Center, a level of automation now exists in the oceanic environment to potentially begin accommodating increased user preferred routing requests. This paper presents the results of an initial feasibility assessment which examines the potential benefits of transitioning from the fixed Central East Pacific routes to user preferred routes. As a surrogate for the actual user-provided routing requests, a minimum-travel-time, wind-optimal dynamic programming algorithm was developed and utilized in this paper. After first describing the characteristics (e.g., origin airport, destination airport, vertical distribution and temporal distribution) of the westbound flights utilizing the Central East Pacific routes on Dec. 14-16 and 19-20, the results of both a flight-plan-based simulation and a wind-optimal-based simulation are presented. Whereas the lateral and longitudinal distribution of the aircraft trajectories in these two simulations varied dramatically, the number of simulated first-loss-of-separation events remained relatively constant. One area of concern that was uncovered in this initial analysis was a potential workload issue associated with the redistribution of traffic in the oceanic sectors due to thc prevailing wind patterns.

Grabbe, Shon↗

Austin Sustainable and Holistic Integration of Energy Storage and Solar PV [Austin SHINES]. Final Report, Version 2

The Austin SHINES project and solution is a software management platform, for an electric grid with a high penetration of dispersed photovoltaic (PV) solar generation sites, which maintains the traditional power quality and reliability associated with grid service. This project developed and deployed the platform as a Distributed Energy Resource Management System (DERMS), engaging multiple advanced controls, to evaluate operation and optimization of a fleet of diverse DER assets, installed at several locations among Austin Energy’s customers and distribution system. The project also produced a methodology to create a replicable DERMS template, adaptable to other regions and market structures. Last, Austin SHINES aimed to demonstrate the solution’s methodology would enable the DER grid ecosystem to serve load at a technical cost (System Levelized Cost of Electricity, or System LCOE) of less than the U.S. Department of Energy SHINES program metric of $0.14/kWh, in a defined boundary, while enabling a high penetration of distributed PV. Research was categorized in 6 reports (Final Deliverables = FD) listed below, with titles and descriptions indicating which area of understanding was investigated: FD-1: System Levelized Cost of Electricity (System LCOE) Methodology The creation and use of the System LCOE to Serve Load metric that encompasses the holistic, system-level costs and benefits of all resources, and enables them to be evaluated based on their ability to support an efficient and low-cost integrated grid ecosystem. FD-2: Software Platform Product Description The creation of new DER control methodologies deployable within a utility-grade software platform that enable DER's to maximize their benefit within a grid, that is capable of serving load enabling a high penetration of distributed PV generation. FD-3: Optimal Design Methodology Optimal design methodologies for individual DER installations that enable utilities to determine the optimal combinations and sizing for individual DER sites. FD-4: Austin SHINES Ownership and Operation Models for DER System Performance A comparison of multiple DER aggregation and ownership methodologies including direct utility control, third-party aggregator, and autonomous. FD-5: Economic Modeling & Optimization A comparison of multiple DER technology mixes and configurations within the distribution system, providing insight into an optimal blend of technologies that best enable the distribution system to serve load at the lowest cost at high penetrations of solar. FD-6: Fielded Assets Deployed DER assets within the Austin Energy SHINES circuits. Austin SHINES provided an opening for state-of-the-art technology products to be deployed, providing a rich opportunity for improving how each of the products perform as stand-alone products, and in concert with other complementary products. The Austin SHINES project comprised of two key metrics for System LCOE: SystemLCOE_SHINES<$0.14/kWh Modeled ΔSystemLCOE_SHINES/ΔSystemLCOE_Base≥20% at same solar penetration The System LCOE calculation uses the costs of the utility-owned infrastructure as it exists today, the cost of the DERs that exist in the system today, and the cost of the purchase of energy from ERCOT wholesale markets over the course of the calendar year. All costs are on an annualized basis. The capital and operating costs are derived from the rate case, which produces a yearly cost. The net cost of energy and services imported to the system is integrated over the test year, as is the load served and solar penetration. The first metric was easily achieved by every scenario considered. The goal was set when the Department of Energy’s SHINES Funding Opportunity Announcement was written in 2015 and was a more difficult target at the time. Due mostly to rapidly declining costs for DERs and the significant decrease in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) energy market prices, which results in lower net cost of energy purchases, the System LCOE is well below this target for all scenarios considered. A fleet of DERs can assume different mixtures, each of which serves the load at a different LCOE. The optimal mixture of DERs serves load at the smallest System LCOE. The second metric (hereinafter %delta metric) asks that the holistic DERMS controls reduce the incremental cost above the baseline of going to a high solar penetration future by at least 20% as compared to the case of a DER deployment with no sophisticated controls (autonomous). Many comparison sets were created throughout this project. Physical technology was installed for informing utility engineering and testing several types of operational control schemes, through the DERMS. The types of operational control which were compared for valuation of the System LCOE Metric were: Holistic control = using the full suite of the DERMS platform to decide and optimize how/why the systems operate depending on weather, market, and reliability signal input. Autonomous control = a local mode at the asset site, wherein a schedule operates the asset, with visibility into performance only No control = the baseline for comparing value against the other two types of control The types of ownership control included: Direct Utility control = the utility dispatches a signal to each asset Third-Party Aggregator = a third party aggregates a fleet of assets and the utility dispatches one signal for all Autonomous = a local mode is set for operation at the asset site, wherein a schedule operates the asset, with visibility into performance only The types of control methodologies deployable within a utility-grade software platform included: Utility Peak Load Reduction = Lower transmission cost obligation Day-Ahead Energy Arbitrage = Realize economic value through price differential Real-Time Price Dispatch = Realize economic value from real-time price spikes Voltage support = Reduce losses and increase solar generation Distribution Congestion Management = Increase local grid reliability Demand Charge Reduction = Lower customer bills and realize system benefit The fielded assets deployed for the project were: Utility Scale Kingsbery Energy Storage System: 1.5 MW / 3 MWh Li-Ion battery storage Mueller Energy Storage System: 1.75 MW / 3.2 MWh Li-Ion battery storage, 7 Energy Storage Units (250 kW each) La Loma Community Solar: 2.6 MW Commercial Scale Aggregated storage installations at 3 sites, with existing solar (300+ kW): One 18 kW / 36 kWh Li-Ion battery storage Two 72 kW / 144 kWh Li-Ion battery storage Residential Scale Aggregated storage installations: -Six stationary battery storage systems (10 kWh each) at homes with existing solar -One Electric Vehicle installed as Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) Utility-Controlled Solar via Smart Inverters at 12 homes Autonomously-Controlled Smart Inverters at 6 homes Over the course of the project, Austin SHINES undertook installing more than 3 MW of distributed battery energy storage, smart PV inverters, a DER control platform, and other enabling technologies utilizing customer and utility locations and aggregation models. All of these resources were to be integrated and optimized at the utility level. DER assets and control methodologies were designed to achieve a credible pathway to a System LCOE for energy delivered to load of $0.14//kWh or less by 2020, while maximizing distributed solar generation and maintaining acceptable standards of power quality. The project also established a template for other regions to follow, to maximize the adoption of distributed solar PV in support of an economic and efficient grid. In total, the Austin SHINES project added value to the DER subject area in each layer of integration. From utility, to commercial to residential scales, the sheer hierarchy of communication and coordination was a significant accomplishment in addition to learnings from what these communications revealed was unique to each. Economically, the most effective method demonstrated was the criticality of planning phases. Contingencies and multiple projection scenarios helped guide the project to deploy optimal design as close as feasible, in real world conditions. The project and reports will serve public benefit by outlining specific areas of DER strategy and installation where many stakeholders and needs can be addressed with improved efficiency. Overall, communities and utilities should use the results to guide the increasing options available for powering the grid with DER, renewables, and carbon considerate energy.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Modeling and Detection of Future Cyber-Enabled DSM Data Attacks

Demand-Side Management (DSM) is an essential tool to ensure power system reliability and stability. In future smart grids, certain portions of a customer’s load usage could be under the automatic control of a cyber-enabled DSM program, which selectively schedules loads as a function of electricity prices to improve power balance and grid stability. In this scenario, the security of DSM cyberinfrastructure will be critical as advanced metering infrastructure and communication systems are susceptible to cyber-attacks. Such attacks, in the form of false data injections, can manipulate customer load profiles and cause metering chaos and energy losses in the grid. The feedback mechanism between load management on the consumer side and dynamic price schemes employed by independent system operators can further exacerbate attacks. To study how this feedback mechanism may worsen attacks in future cyber-enabled DSM programs, we propose a novel mathematical framework for (i) modeling the nonlinear relationship between load management and real-time pricing, (ii) simulating residential load data and prices, (iii) creating cyber-attacks, and (iv) detecting said attacks. In this framework, we first develop time-series forecasts to model load demand and use them as inputs to an elasticity model for the price-demand relationship in the DSM loop. This work then investigates the behavior of such a feedback loop under intentional cyber-attacks. We simulate and examine load-price data under different DSM-participation levels with three types of random additive attacks: ramp, sudden, and point attacks. We conduct two investigations for the detection of DSM attacks. The first studies a supervised learning approach, with various classification models, and the second studies the performance of parametric and nonparametric change point detectors. Results conclude that higher amounts of DSM participation can exacerbate ramp and sudden attacks leading to better detection of such attacks, especially with supervised learning classifiers. We also find that nonparametric detection outperforms parametric for smaller user pools, and random point attacks are the hardest to detect with any method.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Nickel-hydrogen capacity loss on storage

Nickel-hydrogen batteries are rapidly becoming accepted for use in low-earth-orbit and geosynchronous orbit applications. With their increased use it has become evident that the storage procedures commonly used for nickel-cadmium cells are not adequate for the nickel-hydrogen system. The capacity loss exhibited by nickel electrodes from various manufacturers when exposed to different storage conditions was determined. A comprehensive test matrix was developed to evaluate capacity loss in nickel electrodes from four different manufacturers. Two types of tests were run; individual electrode tests, which involved flooded capacity and impedance measurements before and after storage under varied conditions of temperature, hydrogen pressure, and electrolyte concentration; and cell tests which primarily evaluated the effects of state-of-charge on storage. The cell tests evaluated capacity loss on cells stored open circuit, shorted and trickle charged at C/100 following a full charge. The results indicate that capacity loss varies with the specific electrode manufacturing process, storage temperature and hydrogen pressure. In general, electrodes stored at low temperatures or low hydrogen pressures exhibited a smaller loss in capacity over the twenty-eight day storage period than those stored at high pressure and high temperature. The capacity loss appears to correlate with the level of cobalt in the nickel electrode, with the most significant loss of capacity occurring in electrodes with higher cobalt levels. Impedance measurements appear to correlate well with the capacity loss observed for a given type of electrode but do not correlate well with the capacity loss between electrodes fabricated by different manufacturers. There was a definite correlation between the electrode potential measured immediately following storage and the measured capacity loss.

Manzo, Michelle A.↗

Changes in the Mass Balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet in a Warming Climate During 2003-2009

Mass changes of the Greenland ice sheet (GIS) derived from ICESat and GRACE data both show that the net mass loss from GIS during 2003-2009 is about 175 Gt/year, which contributes 0.5mm/yr global sea-level rise. The rate of mass loss has increased significantly since the 1990's when the GIS was close to mass balance. Even though the GIS was close to mass balance during the 1990's, it was already showing characteristics of responding to8 warmer climate, specifically thinning at the margins and thickening inland at higher elevations. During 2003-2009, increased ice thinning due to increases in melting and acceleration of outlet glaciers began to strongly exceed the inland thickening from increases in accumulation. Over the entire GIS, the mass loss between the two periods, from increased melting and ice dynamics, increased by about 190 Gt/year while the mass gain, from increased precipitation and accumulation, increased by only about 15Gt/year. These ice changes occurred during a time when the temperature on GIS changed at rate of about 2K/decade. The distribution of elevation and mass changes derived from ICESat have high spatial resolution showing details over outlet glaciers, by drainage systems, and by elevation. However, information on the seasonal cycle of changes from ICESat data is limited, because the ICESat lasers were only operated during two to three campaigns per year of about 35 days duration each. In contrast, the temporal resolution of GRACE data, provided by the continuous data collection, is much better showing details of the seasonal cycle and the inter-annual variability. The differing sensitivity of the ICESat altimetry and the GRACE gravity methods to motion of the underlying bedrock from glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) is used to evaluate the GIA corrections provided by models. The two data types are also combined to make estimates of the partitioning of the mass gains and losses among accumulation, melting, and ice discharge from outlet glaciers.

Zwally, H. Jay↗

NASA's Cryogenic Fluid Management Technology Development Roadmaps

The maturation of Cryogenic Fluid Management (CFM) Technologies is essential for achieving NASA's future long duration missions. Propulsion systems utilizing cryogens are necessary to achieve NASA's exploration missions to the moon, Mars, and beyond. Current State Of the Art (SOA) CFM technologies enable cryogenic propellants to be stored for several hours prior to their use. However, some envisioned mission architectures require that cryogens to be stored for two years or longer. The fundamental roles of CFM technologies are long term storage of cryogens, propellant tank pressure control and propellant delivery. In the presence of heat, the cryogens will "boil-off" over time resulting in excessive pressure buildup, off-nominal propellant conditions for engine consumption, and propellant loss. To achieve long term storage and tank pressure control, the CFM elements will intercept and/or remove any heat from the propulsion system. All functions are required to be performed both with and without the presence of a gravitational field. Which CFM technologies are required is a function of the cryogens used, mission architecture, vehicle design and propellant tank size. To enable NASA's crewed missions beyond Low Earth Orbit, a total of twenty-seven CFM technologies have been identified to support various In-Space Stages and Lander/Ascent Vehicles. A set of CFM Technology Development Roadmaps have been created identifying the current Technology Readiness Level (TRL) of each element, current technology "gaps", and existing technology development efforts. The roadmaps include a methodical approach and schedule to achieve a flight demonstration, hence maturing CFM technologies to TRL 6/7 for infusion into the NASA's exploration elements. Additionally, a survey of the aerospace industry was completed to understand their views on the various technologies and how they would be infused. This does not cover all possible technologies, but rather those that are of interest to NASA specifically.

Cryogenic fluid management↗

Safety Functions and Features, Events and Processes for the E-Area Performance Assessment

The DOE Technical Standard, “Disposal Authorization Statement and Tank Closure Documentation,” (DOE 2017) recommends the use of safety functions and features, events and processes (FEPs) to support development of conceptual models and identification of scenarios to be considered in a performance assessment (PA). The FEP process provides a means to describe how a PA considers and addresses the factors that could influence the performance of key barriers. Understanding the roles of barriers in terms of limiting migration helps to focus on how changes in the system could lead to a situation where those roles cannot be fulfilled and there is the potential for compromised performance. The FEPs screening and review process was used to identify FEPs that are relevant for the EArea Low-Level Waste Facility (LLWF) and specifically those FEPs that could have a detrimental impact on the effectiveness of a given safety function. For this PA, a default list of FEPs developed at the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA 2004) and an approach implemented for PAs at the Hanford and Idaho sites (Mehta et al. 2016, DOE-ID 2019) are used to identify processes and events that could influence the effectiveness of a given safety function for the E-Area LLWF (e.g., subsidence can impact the safety function of the cover system and lead to increased infiltration). The Hanford and Idaho PAs represent two of the most recent applications of this approach. The PA evaluates the potential impacts of changes in performance of different features of the system and demonstrates that the safety functions represent multiple and redundant barriers. Barrier analyses, assuming a safety function is not present, also test the robustness of the system in the event of the loss of one or more safety functions. Such evaluations also support a qualitative illustration of the concept of defense in depth. The safety concept for closure of the E-Area LLWF (generically referred to as “E-Area”) encompasses a variety of different features (i.e., administrative controls, natural site features, and engineered barriers) that reduce the potential impacts on human health and the environment from the residual waste that will remain after closure. These features can be represented as a collection of safety functions acting independently and as a system to provide for overall safety. In some applications, there have been attempts to assign numerical expectations to specific safety functions, but that is not the intent in this case. The concept of safety functions is used more qualitatively in two ways for this PA: 1. To illustrate the robustness of the E-Area design, operational practices and closure approach by documenting features that are and are not credited in different modeling cases. 2. To identify the roles of the different features and potential processes and events that could compromise the performance of safety features and need to be considered when developing the modeling approach. This report addresses both safety functions and FEPs for the E-Area PA.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Two-Stream Multi-Channel Convolutional Neural Network for Multi-Lane Traffic Speed Prediction Considering Traffic Volume Impact

Traffic speed prediction is a critically important component of intelligent transportation systems. Recently, with the rapid development of deep learning and transportation data science, a growing body of new traffic speed prediction models have been designed that achieved high accuracy and large-scale prediction. However, existing studies have two major limitations. First, they predict aggregated traffic speed rather than lane-level traffic speed; second, most studies ignore the impact of other traffic flow parameters in speed prediction. To address these issues, the authors propose a two-stream multi-channel convolutional neural network (TM-CNN) model for multi-lane traffic speed prediction considering traffic volume impact. In this model, the authors first introduce a new data conversion method that converts raw traffic speed data and volume data into spatial–temporal multi-channel matrices. Then the authors carefully design a two-stream deep neural network to effectively learn the features and correlations between individual lanes, in the spatial–temporal dimensions, and between speed and volume. Accordingly, a new loss function that considers the volume impact in speed prediction is developed. A case study using 1-year data validates the TM-CNN model and demonstrates its superiority. This paper contributes to two research areas: (1) traffic speed prediction, and (2) multi-lane traffic flow study.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

The 10.7-cm microwave observations of AR 5395 and related terrestrial effects

The 10.7 cm flux patrols in Canada recorded 4 Great Bursts (peaks greater than 500 sfu) during the disk passage of AR 5395 in March 1989. The Great Bursts of 16 and 17 March were simple events of great amplitude and with half-life durations of only several minutes. Earlier Great Bursts, originating on 6 March towards the NE limb and on 10 March closer to the central meridian, belong to an entirely different category of event. Each started with a very strong impulsive event lasting just minutes. After an initial recovery, however, the emission climbed back to level as greater or greater than the initial impulsive burst. The events of 6 and 10 March stayed above the Great Burst threshold for at least 100 minutes. The second component of long duration in these cases is associated with Type 4 continuum emission and thus very likely with CMEs. Major geomagnetic disturbances did not occur as a result of the massive complex event of 6 March or the two simple but strong events of 16 and 17 March. But some 55 hours after the peak in the long-enduring burst of 10 March, a storm began which qualifies as the fourth strongest geomagnetic storm in Canada since 1932. The vertical component of the earth's field measured during the storm by a fluxgate magnetometer at a station in Manitoba is presented. Within a minute of the sudden commencement of this storm, a series of breakdowns began in the transmission system of Hydro-Quebec which resulted in a total loss of power, on a bitterly cold winter's day, for at least 10 hours. The loss of power provoked an enormous outcry from the public resulting in the power utilities being more receptive to the need to monitor solar as well as geomagnetic activity.

Gaizauskas, V.↗

Dark Matter and Track Triggering with the CMS Experiment (Final Report)

This report summarizes the progress from DOE Early Career Award entitled “Dark Matter and Track Triggering with the CMS Experiment”. The first major goal of the project was to establish a sensitive Dark Matter (DM) search program for the CMS experiment in Run-2 of the LHC. Two related strategies were developed to accomplish this goal. First, we designed and executed searches for DM produced in association with heavy flavor quark pairs, top/anti-top (ttbar) and bottom/anti-bottom (bbbar). In addition, we sought to maximize the power of Run-2 DM searches through the development of a statistical combination of all major search channels within a consistent theoretical framework. The results of these aspects of the project are detailed in Section 1. The second major goal of the project was to develop a real-time “Level-1” tracking trigger system for the high-luminosity LHC (HL-LHC) CMS upgrade. Charged particle tracking in the first stage of the CMS trigger will be crucial for surviving the high-pileup environment expected at the HL-LHC. The L1 tracking trigger must process all front-end hit data sent from the inner Tracker and will have just 4us to output track primitives to the downstream L1 trigger without data loss. Our development of the CMS tracking trigger is described in Section 2. The team supported by the award is given in Section 3. The project resulted in 10 peer reviewed publications, a graduate student thesis, and contributions to the CMS Phase-2 Tracker Technical Design Report, as is detailed in Section 4. Our development work for the CMS tracking trigger has been integrated in the backend system architecture for the Tracker upgrade.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

A Review of Value of Solar Studies In Theory and In Practice

This brief summarizes a collection of state- and utility-commissioned value-of-solar (VoS) studies and related literature, with a focus on who commissioned the study, which value and cost categories were discussed and/or quantified, and the methods used. Our objective is to compile information on prior VoS studies to inform state regulators and other stakeholders that may pursue related studies or integrate findings into rate design. The brief is organized into three parts: 1) an introduction to distributed solar photovoltaic (DPV) compensation; 2) a review of theoretical research on VoS; and 3) a review of VoS studies. The vast majority of VoS studies have served an informational role of quantifying the net benefits of PV. Three studies were commissioned in states or utility service territories that subsequently implemented VoS tariffs in California, New York, and Austin, Texas. When applied as a tariff, VoS aims to compensate PV output as efficiently as possible by doing so at rates that reflect the marginal benefits and costs of PV through value and cost categories that may vary temporally and/or geographically. This could lead to higher compensation in locations and times where more PV output is more valuable and consequently drive adoption in those locations to provide more societal benefits. Value and cost factors can be broadly grouped into five categories: generation, transmission, distribution, other utility, and other social categories. Those conducting VoS studies must weigh various tradeoffs when deciding which categories to include and quantify. Tradeoffs include prioritizing values based on their magnitude of value or cost impact, as well as taking into account the feasibility of data collection and accurate quantification. Values of higher magnitude and estimation feasibility are quantified in the majority of studies, including the earliest of studies conducted in the 2000s and 2010s. Additionally, some values of higher magnitude but low feasibility in the earliest of studies have become quantifiable in recent years. There are some values with low average system-wide levels but very high magnitude in specific locations or hours. The value magnitude in some cases can be tied to DPV penetration with low value in areas with little congestion and/or low penetration and vice versa. In these cases, values that are easier to quantify are often incorporated, while those that are more difficult are often addressed via a placeholder value. The placeholder value is paired with a discussion around data needs and methods to improve future estimates, as well as a conversation about when these value categories may increase in magnitude and necessitate more rigorous quantification. This brief summarizes findings from two meta-analyses of VoS studies that took place between 2005 and 2018, as well as findings from four additional studies published from 2018 to 2023. Table ES-1 summarizes the various value and cost categories included in each respective study and whether they were quantified, discussed, or omitted. Values such as avoided energy, capacity, transmission capacity, line losses, and avoided environmental costs are quantified in every study. Some categories were deemed harder to quantify and less impactful at the time of the study, so they were discussed but not quantified (e.g., ancillary services). Other categories, including many at the distribution level, were very locationally and/or temporally specific and dependent on high DPV penetration. These were sometimes quantified and at other times discussed. Notably, when it came to utility costs, integration costs were discussed in all cases, though they were deemed to have a small impact. Other utility costs were omitted for the most part; however, the utility-commissioned study (by NorthWestern Energy in Montana) included both lost utility revenue and programmatic/administrative cost categories. While there are some similarities across studies, each had fairly unique methods that are detailed in the body of this brief.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Soluble TNF-alpha receptor 1 and IL-6 plasma levels in humans subjected to the sleep deprivation model of spaceflight

BACKGROUND: The extent to which sleep loss may predispose astronauts to a state of altered immunity during extended space travel prompts evaluation with ground-based models. OBJECTIVE: We sought to measure plasma levels of selected cytokines and their receptors, including the putative sleep-regulation proteins soluble TNF-alpha receptor (sTNF-alpha R) I and IL-6, in human subjects undergoing 2 types of sleep deprivation during environmental confinement with performance demands. METHODS: Healthy adult men (n = 42) were randomized to schedules that varied in severity of sleep loss: 4 days (88 hours) of partial sleep deprivation (PSD) involving two 2-hour naps per day or 4 days of total sleep deprivation (TSD). Plasma samples were obtained every 6 hours across 5 days and analyzed by using enzyme-linked immunoassays for sTNF-alpha RI, sTNF-alpha RII, IL-6, soluble IL-2 receptor, IL-10, and TNF-alpha. RESULTS: Interactions between the effects of time and sleep deprivation level were detected for sTNF-alpha RI and IL-6 but not for sTNF-alpha RII, soluble IL-2 receptor, IL-10, and TNF-alpha. Relative to the PSD condition, subjects in the TSD condition had elevated plasma levels of sTNF-alpha RI on day 2 (P =.04), day 3 (P =.01), and across days 2 to 4 of sleep loss (P =.01) and elevated levels of IL-6 on day 4 (P =.04). CONCLUSIONS: Total sleep loss produced significant increases in plasma levels of sTNF-alpha RI and IL-6, messengers that connect the nervous, endocrine, and immune systems. These changes appeared to reflect elevations of the homeostatic drive for sleep because they occurred in TSD but not PSD, suggesting that naps may serve as the basis for a countermeasures approach to prolonged spaceflight.

Non-NASA Center↗

Parametric Analysis of Surveillance Quality and Level and Quality of Intent Information and Their Impact on Conflict Detection Performance

A loss-of-separation (LOS) is said to occur when two aircraft are spatially too close to one another. A LOS is the fundamental unsafe event to be avoided in air traffic management and conflict detection (CD) is the function that attempts to predict these LOS events. In general, the effectiveness of conflict detection relates to the overall safety and performance of an air traffic management concept. An abstract, parametric analysis was conducted to investigate the impact of surveillance quality, level of intent information, and quality of intent information on conflict detection performance. The data collected in this analysis can be used to estimate the conflict detection performance under alternative future scenarios or alternative allocations of the conflict detection function, based on the quality of the surveillance and intent information under those conditions.Alternatively, this data could also be used to estimate the surveillance and intent information quality required to achieve some desired CD performance as part of the design of a new separation assurance system.

Guerreiro, Nelson M.↗

Simulation Evaluations of an Autonomous Urban Air Mobility Network Management and Separation Service

This paper presents an initial implementation of an autonomous Urban Air Mobility network management and aircraft separation service for urban airspace that does 1) departure and arrival scheduling across the network, 2) continuous trajectory management to ensure safe separation between aircraft, and 3) seamless integration with traditional operations. The highly-autonomous AutoResolver algorithm developed for traditional aviation was extended to provide these capabilities. An evaluation of this initial implementation was conducted in fast-time simulations using a dense, two-hour traffic scenario with Urban Air Mobility aircraft flying between a network of 20 vertiports in the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex. When the spatial separation was reduced from 0:3nmi to 0:1nmi, the total de- lay decreased by 7:3%; when the temporal separation was reduced from 60s to 45s, the total delay decreased by 28:4%. The total number of conflict resolutions decreased by 26% and 17%, respectively. Furthermore, when a scheduling horizon greater than the duration of UAM flights was used (50min), most conflicts were resolved pre-departure producing ground delay. By comparison, when a shorter scheduling horizon was used (8min), most conflicts were resolved post-departure generating airborne delay. For all scheduling and separation constraints tested, AutoResolver prevented loss of separation from occurring. Urban Air Mobility operations have the ability to revolutionize how people and goods are transported and this paper presents initial research focusing on the high levels of autonomy required for an airspace system capable of scaling to handle significantly higher densities of aircraft.

Bosson, Christabelle S.↗

Comparison Between Pin-by-Pin Subchannel and System Level Thermal Hydraulic Results for High Burnup Loss-of-Coolant Applications

This milestone report summarizes recent work to investigate higher fidelity modeling and simulation practices for large-break loss-of-coolant accident (LBLOCA) analysis in high-burnup pressurized water reactor (PWR) cores. Because of current industry interest in extending fuel cycle lengths ranging from 18 to 24-months, the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program has been investigating the susceptibility of high-burnup core designs to fuel fragmentation, release, and dispersal (FFRD) during accident conditions such as LBLOCA. This work has prioritized developing and demonstrating a methodology for calculating core-wide susceptibility to FFRD and addressing uncertainties identified in the analysis and the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) Research Information Letter on FFRD. Part of this investigation seeks to quantify differences between system-level thermal hydraulic behavior and higher fidelity subchannel modeling methods to identify potential safety concerns or opportunities to minimize FFRD susceptibility. To this end, the NEAMS subchannel code, CTF, is being used, along with the NRC system analysis code TRACE, for analysis of LBLOCA in a core containing high-burnup fuel. This project includes two thrusts: (1) improving on the existing TRACE model for a 4-loop PWR for LBLOCA so that the model is higher fidelity and consistent with current USNRC best practices, and (2) using CTF to perform pin-resolved modeling of the core region of the reflood phase of a LBLOCA in a high-burnup PWR.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

OH detection by Ford Motor Company

Two different methods for detection of OH are presented: a low pressure flow cell system and a frequency modulation absorption measurement. Using conventional absorption spectroscopy, detection limits were quoted of 1,000,000 OH molecules per cu cm using a 30-minute averaging time on the ground, and a 3-hour averaging time in the air for present apparatus in use. With the addition of FM spectroscopy at 1 GHz, a double-beam machine should permit detectable absorption of and an OH limit of 100,000 per cu cm in a 30-minute averaging time. In the low pressure system on which experiments are ongoing nonexponential time behavior was observed after the decay had progressed to about 0.3 of its original level; this was attributed to ion emission in the photomultiplier. A flame source with OH present at high concentration levels was used as a calibration. It was estimated that within the sampling chamber, 400,000 OH could be measured. With a factor-of-2 loss at the sampling orifice, this means detectability of 5 to 8 x 100,000 cu cm at the present time. This could be reduced by a factor of 2 in one hour averaging time; improvements in laser bandwidth and energy should provide another factor of 2 in sensitivity.

Wang, Charles C.↗

Computer-Based Procedures Among Older Adults: Findings from the Rancor Microworld Simulator

As with many industries worldwide, nuclear energy is experiencing an aging workforce; older than other energy sources and the national average. For example, while almost one in three nuclear industry professionals are 55+ years, for oil and gas that number is one in five. The challenges brought about by an aging workforce are one of the industry’s top concerns. However, the industry lacks for empirical research that examines the effects of developmental aging in older workers, as well as the interactions between aging and new digital technologies. We present the results of an experiment that tested three different computer-based procedures in a sample of 30 older adults (55+ years). While the industry has traditionally relied on paper-based procedures, these are being modernized by digital technology. Participants were randomly assigned to one of three procedure-types that varied by the level of digitalization, based on the IEEE Standard-1786. Type 1 essentially represents a digital representation of a paper-based procedure, Type 2 adds embedded indicators, and Type 3 adds soft controls. Participants performed two different operational scenarios (startup and loss of feedwater) on a simplified nuclear power plant simulator. Results revealed a weak signal that Type 2 may produce lower workload and lower completion times in some instances. However, there were no significant effects of procedure-type across any other outcomes, including simulator log data, situation awareness, and preference ratings. We discuss our findings in terms of optimal levels of digitalization/automation for an aging nuclear workforce and suggest pathways for future directions.

46 - INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AN↗

Optimized Heat Pipe Backup Cooling System Tested with a Stirling Convertor

In a Stirling Radioisotope Power System (RPS), heat must be continuously removed from the General Purpose Heat Source (GPHS) modules to maintain the modules and surrounding insulation at acceptable temperatures. The Stirling convertor normally provides this cooling. If the Stirling convertor stops in the current system, the insulation is designed to spoil, preventing damage to the GPHS at the cost of an early termination of the mission. An alkali-metal variable conductance heat pipe (VCHP) can be used to passively allow multiple stops and restarts of the Stirling convertor by bypassing the heat during stops. In a previous NASA Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) Program, Advanced Cooling Technologies, Inc. (ACT) developed a series of sodium VCHPs as backup cooling systems for the Stirling RPS. In 2012, one of these VCHPs was successfully tested at NASA Glenn Research Center with a Stirling convertor as an Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator (ASRG) backup cooling system. The prototype; however, was not optimized and did not reflect the final heat rejection path. ACT through further funding has developed a semioptimized prototype with the finalized heat path for testing at Glenn with a Stirling convertor. The semioptimized system features a two-phase radiator and is significantly smaller and lighter than the prior prototype to reflect a higher level of flight readiness. The VCHP is designed to activate and remove heat from the GPHS during stoppage with a small temperature increase from the nominal vapor temperature. This small temperature increase from nominal is low enough to avoid risking standard ASRG operation and spoiling of the multilayer insulation (MLI). The VCHP passively allows the Stirling convertor to be turned off multiple times during a mission with potentially unlimited off durations. Having the ability to turn the Stirling off allows for the Stirling to be reset and reduces vibrations on the platform during sensitive measurements or procedures. This paper presents the design of the VCHP and its test results with a Stirling convertor at Glenn. Tests were carried for multiple on and off cycles to demonstrate repeatability. The impacts associated with the addition of the VCHP to the system are also addressed in terms of mass and additional heat losses due to the presence of the VCHP.

Heat Pipe↗