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At least 325 records · Page 18

Assessing the Resource Adequacy and Community Impacts of an Evolving Grid: Considerations for State Regulators

As U.S. power systems continue to decarbonize, state regulators must be able to broadly assess the cost and reliability implications of proposed fossil retirements and the corresponding resources that are coming online to replace them. Specifically, regulators must evaluate whether proposed infrastructure investments are sufficient to ensure the long-term reliability of the system, while also protecting rate payers by ensuring that such investments are necessary and not excessive. Broadly speaking, this objective is typically framed in terms of maintaining long-term resource adequacy at the lowest cost, while also ensuring that other social and/or environmental objectives are satisfied. System planners currently have a host of sophisticated analytical tools at their disposal to evaluate the cost-benefit trade-offs of different approaches to ensuring resource adequacy. However, most of these tools and associated metrics were designed with traditional power systems in mind. Over the past decade, it has become increasingly clear that the metrics and models that have reliably assessed resource adequacy in systems dominated by large thermal and hydropower resources will be insufficient for systems with significant contributions from emerging technologies such as wind, solar and storage. Therefore, in recent years many new metrics and modeling approaches have been developed, and are increasingly being implemented, to meet the needs of the clean energy transition.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Modeling of thermal and kinetic processes in non-equilibrium plasma ignition applied to a lean combustion engine

In recent years novel ignition systems have been developed to enable stable and efficient engine operations with lean mixtures. Among them, radio-frequency corona ignition systems create discharges that involve a much wider region compared to traditional spark, and produce non equilibrium plasma with high levels of active radicals and excited species. These devices considerably increase the early flame growth speed and extend stable operating limits. With the aim of expanding the knowledge on high efficiency lean-burn SI engines, this paper investigates and compares the combustion development generated by spark and corona ignitions through computational fluid dynamics, within the Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes framework for turbulence modeling. In order to simultaneously take thermal and chemical effects into account, the Perfectly Stirred Reactor combustion model is used. Experimental data are also collected for validation in an optical access engine, for different mixture levels, from stoichiometric to very lean. Furthermore, the faster burn rate generated by the corona system in the initial stage of the combustion is well predicted by the simulations, in all the relative air-fuel ratio conditions. Remarkably, as the mixture becomes lean, simulations are able to capture the non-linear transition from fast to slow kernel growth, before a self-sustainable flame propagation is established. This correlates very well with the measured engine cyclic variability and the corresponding steep change in the duration of the flame kernel formation. Ultimately, this study highlights the important role of the atomic oxygen, as active radical, in promoting and enhancing the combustion initiated by a corona discharge, in addition to the volumetric ignition effect. By contrast, the validated simulations allow to explain that the high-temperature thermal plasma generated in a traditional spark discharge is insensitive to kinetic aspects.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Transformer Health Monitoring Using Dissolved Gas Analysis

As integral components of any power plant, transformers supply the generated electricity to the grid. However, a transformer’s cellulose-based paper insulation and the mineral oil in which it is immersed break down over time under standard operating conditions—or more rapidly due to potential faults within the system. As the transformer’s mineral oil breaks down, gases are released that can be measured and monitored. This technical brief exhibits a collection of diagnostic and prognostic techniques that utilities can adopt in lieu of labor-intensive periodic preventive maintenance routines. Furthermore, prognostic models have been incorporated using the latest version of the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) standard (IEEE, 2019) for dissolved gas analysis (DGA), thus expanding it to include estimation of the time to maintenance. Overall, four different methodologies are explained, each of which aids in determining a transformer’s state of health. These methodologies include the Chendong model, the IEEE thermal life consumption model (IEEE, 2012), a diagnostic model for DGA, and a prognostic model for DGA that uses an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. An additional improvement for estimating missing system parameters by using monitoring data (i.e., a tool for parameter estimation utilizing Powell’s method) is presented, enabling the IEEE thermal life consumption model to benefit not only the collaborating power plant, but also the power industry at large.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Investigation of GaAs surface treatments for ZnSe growth by molecular beam epitaxy without a buffer layer

Atomically clean and smooth surfaces are critical prerequisite for the epitaxial regrowth of dissimilar semiconductors. Using ZnSe/GaAs as a model system, epitaxial regrowth without a buffer layer after thermal cleaning with various As-fluxes, atomic Ga flux, and atomic hydrogen treatments to the GaAs substrates and the surfaces were investigated in this work via in-situ Auger electron spectroscopy (AES). The ZnSe epilayers grown on the pre-treated GaAs surfaces without a buffer layer were characterized by X-ray diffraction (XRD), photoluminescence (PL) and atomic force microscopy (AFM) to evaluate the effectiveness of the surface treatment methods. It was found that a high quality ZnSe layer can be achieved by atomic hydrogen surface treatment at 300°C without requiring GaAs buffer layer growth, which reveals a path for epitaxy growth avoiding high temperature treatments.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Arctic Ocean annual high in ${{\boldsymbol{p}}}_{{{\bf{CO}}}_{{\bf{2}}}}$ could shift from winter to summer

Long-term stress on marine organisms from ocean acidification will differ between seasons. As atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) increases, so do seasonal variations of ocean CO 2 partial pressure (p co 2 ), causing summer and winter long-term trends to diverge. Trends may be further influenced by an unexplored factor—changes in the seasonal timing of p co 2 . In Arctic Ocean surface waters, the observed timing is typified by a winter high and summer low because biological effects dominate thermal effects. Here we show that 27 Earth system models simulate similar timing under historical forcing but generally project that the summer low, relative to the annual mean, eventually becomes a high across much of the Arctic Ocean under mid-to-high-level CO 2 emissions scenarios. Often the greater increase in summer p co 2 , although gradual, abruptly inverses the chronological order of the annual high and low, a phenomenon not previously seen in climate-related variables. The main cause is the large summer sea surface warming from earlier retreat of seasonal sea ice. Warming and changes in other drivers enhance this century’s increase in extreme summer p co 2 by 29 ± 9 per cent compared with no change in driver seasonalities. Thus the timing change worsens summer ocean acidification, which in turn may lower the tolerance of endemic marine organisms to increasing summer temperatures.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Floquet operator dynamics and orthogonal polynomials on the unit circle

Operator spreading under stroboscopic time evolution under a unitary is studied. An operator Krylov space is constructed and mapped to orthogonal polynomials on a unit circle (OPUC), as well as to the Krylov space of the edge operator of the Floquet transverse field Ising model with inhomogeneous couplings (ITFIM). The Verblunsky coefficients in the OPUC representation are related to the Krylov angles parametrizing the ITFIM. The relations between the OPUC and spectral functions are summarized and several applications are presented. These include derivation of analytic expressions for the OPUC under persistent m-periodic dynamics, and the numerical construction of the OPUC for autocorrelations of the homogeneous Floquet-Ising model as well as the Z 3 clock model. The numerically obtained Krylov angles of the Z 3 clock model with long-lived period tripled autocorrelations show a spatial periodicity of six, and this observation is used to develop an analytically solvable model for the ITFIM that mimics this behavior.

Floquet systems↗

Direct Subsurface Measurements through Precise Micro Drilling

Wellbore integrity is a significant problem in the U.S. and worldwide, which has serious adverse environmental and energy security consequences. Wells are constructed with a cement barrier designed to last about 50 years. Indirect measurements and models are commonly used to identify wellbore damage and leakage, often producing subjective and even erroneous results. The research presented herein focuses on new technologies to improve monitoring and detection of wellbore failures (leaks) by developing a multi-step machine learning approach to localize two types of thermal defects within a wellbore model, a prototype mechatronic system for automatically drilling small diameter holes of arbitrary depth to monitor the integrity of oil and gas wells in situ, and benchtop testing and analyses to support the development of an autonomous real-time diagnostic tool to enable sensor emplacement for monitoring wellbore integrity. Each technology was supported by experimental results. This research has provided tools to aid in the detection of wellbore leaks and significantly enhanced our understanding of the interaction between small-hole drilling and wellbore materials.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Valuing the Future Electric Grid: A Bid-Based Approach

Energy storage resources (ESRs) and other zero marginal cost (ZMC) resources have unique characteristics that are not fully captured in today’s electricity planning and operations modeling tools. Because the modeling assumptions used in these tools are simplified approximations of how operations and investment decisions occur in the real-world, accurately representing cost and operational characteristics are key for determining how these resources impact price formation. Questions such as—Where should we build new transmission? Will a small modular reactor earn enough revenue to participate in the future electric grid? Is retrofitting a coal plant with carbon capture technology economically feasible?—all require accurate electricity prices, which aren’t available from today’s electricity planning and operations modeling tools. As an example, production cost models (PCMs) are heavily utilized tools that determine the cost and reliability of the electric system. However, as PCMs were developed to help thermal generators manage their fuel inventories, production cost modeling is largely based on fuel prices. Because ESRs do not incur fuel costs, they are often modeled as ZMC resources. In reality, ESRs incur opportunity costs as well as technology-specific (degradation) costs that are non-trivial to calculate but are important for price formation. In this research, we identify options to incorporate more realistic opportunity and degradation costs in ESR bidding algorithms. Expanding available bidding assumptions allows energy system modelers to develop more accurate economic valuations for ESRs, leading to more accurate price formation from leading energy system modeling tools.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Environmentally Assisted Fatigue in Light Water Reactor Environment

This report summarizes the Environmentally Assisted Fatigue (EAF) research conducted at ANL under the US DOE Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program. Starting from a rich background in theoretical and experimental EAF, ANL previously developed an approach to evaluate fatigue performance of reactor materials in light water reactor environments with the correction factor F en . The approach was based on a large body of experimental work performed at ANL and elsewhere, and was consistent with American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME)’s methodology governing the design and construction of reactor components. In recent years, the program was focused on component fatigue prediction and made several major and fundamental contributions in this area. These accomplishments help meet the needs identified by the industry concerning component level fatigue predictions in complex, transient conditions. The main contribution of the ANL program involved the development of a system-level model for estimating residual strain and life of nuclear reactor coolant system components under connected-system-thermal-mechanical boundary conditions. The goal was to predict the stress hotspots, strain residuals, strain amplitudes and the resulting fatigue lives. Thermal-mechanical stress analysis was performed considering thermal stratification and a design-basis reactor loading cycle. Based on the finite element (FE) model results, the strain residuals, strain amplitudes and resulting fatigue lives of reactor coolant system (RCS) components were predicted. The results show that some of the RCS components can have significantly different strain amplitudes, residual strain, and fatigue lives, despite having similar geometry and material. In addition, the simulated component-level strain profile can guide the selection of appropriate test inputs for conducting laboratory-scale EAF tests. Building upon the system-level model, ANL developed a digital twin (DT) framework to predict the structural states and associated fatigue life of components in real-time. This framework is a comprehensive system designed to predict the structural states and fatigue lives of reactor components. It includes multiple models and integrates artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning (ML), and FE based modeling tools to evaluate the structural states and fatigue lives.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Capsule network-based semantic segmentation model for thermal anomaly identification on building envelopes

Thermography technology is widely used to inspect thermal anomalies in building façade systems. Computer vision-based techniques provide opportunities to autonomously detect such heat anomalies to significantly improve the efficiency of decision-making for building envelope retrofitting and maintenance. Here, in this work, we propose a novel Capsule Network-based deep learning model – CapsLab – that detects and identifies thermal anomalies by semantic segmentation. CapsLab is built based on our proposed prediction-tuning capsule (PT-Capsule) layer. Different from a traditional capsule layer, which consists of part-whole transformation and capsule-routing process, the proposed layer is composed of a prediction and tuning process, which helps decreasing the number of model parameters significantly. While the applicability of traditional Capsule Networks (CapsNets) has been limited to simpler tasks and smaller datasets due to their scalability issue, we can leverage the lightweight of the proposed PT-Capsule layer, and apply it to the semantic segmentation task. In this work, we also employ our previously presented performance metric, referred to as the Anomaly Identification Metric (AIM) (Kakillioglua et al. 2021), to evaluate the segmentation outputs. Traditional performance metrics do not accurately reflect the true performance of the segmentation models in thermal anomaly identification due to the high subjectivity in the annotation process and higher overlap ratio sensitivity of the standard metrics. AIM, on the other hand, is robust to these drawbacks. Experimental results show, both qualitatively and quantitatively, that our proposed segmentation method can effectively segment the thermal anomalies. Specifically, our model provides 9.38% and 13.53% improvements over the baseline model – DeepLabV3+ – based on traditional mIoU score and the AIM score, respectively, while requiring less model parameters and less computation at the same time. In addition, the scores that the AIM metric generates better align with the scores provided by building performance experts.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Understanding the thermally activated charge transport in NaPb m SbQ m+2 (Q = S, Se, Te) thermoelectrics: weak dielectric screening leads to grain boundary dominated charge carrier scattering

Many thermoelectric materials feature irregular electrical conductivity with thermally activated transport below ~600 K and metallic behavior at high temperatures, despite possessing degenerate carrier concentrations. The suppression of the electrical conductivity ultimately degrades the thermoelectric performance on the cold side and limits the device energy conversion efficiency. As such, establishing the origin of the low temperature scattering and developing strategies to mitigate its effect are paramount issues. To date, the correct microscopic description of the low temperature carrier scattering remains an open issue, and there is little work addressing why some thermoelectric materials are more susceptible to the deleterious behavior. Here, we use the promising thermoelectric alloys of PbQ and NaSbQ 2 (Q = S, Se, Te) as model systems to address these concerns. We directly show the thermally activated transport stems from the scattering of charge carriers by the grain boundaries (GBs), and that the expected metallic electrical conductivity is recovered by preparing large grained samples with reduced densities of GBs. We furthermore study the electrical properties NaPb m SbSe m+2 as a function of NaSbSe 2 fraction, as well as those of the chalcogenide analogues, PbTe–NaSbTe 2 and PbS–NaSbS 2 , and demonstrate that the strength of GB scattering can be understood by utilizing simple chemical principles. By considering the polarizability of the host atoms, we directly relate the magnitude of GB scattering to the relative degree of charge carrier screening in each material, and demonstrate that GB scattering is strongest in the ionic NaSbQ 2 -rich compounds and weakest in more polarizable PbQ-rich phases. We finally show how these chemical arguments elegantly explain the strong GB scattering in numerous other thermoelectric materials. By uniting the deleterious charge transport properties exhibited by many different compounds into a common picture, we discuss how our work gives design principles for proper microstructure engineering in emerging thermoelectric materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Analysis of Lobe Power Calculator and Indication System with Physics and Cycle Based Models

The Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) at INL measures reactor power through various methods, two of them being thermal and Nitrogen-16 (N-16) activity. Water power calculator (WPC) is a thermal power system that measures flow and temperature to determine thermal quadrant powers. The N-16 system utilizes a beta detector that outputs Nitrogen activation levels to calculate lobe power through an algorithm called Lobe Power Calculation and Indication system (LPCIS). The LPCIS utilizes the N-16 system and the WPC system to determine reactor core power levels. The WPC provides accurate calculations of quadrant and total reactor thermal power. With the use of WPC measurements, thermal-to-N-16 (T2N) power ratios are produced to determine if the two indication systems agree on core power. Relative magnitude equations are used to utilize N-16 coefficients and multipliers to improve the indications of the LPCIS. These correct indications are crucial for maintaining safety limits because operators rely on this information for decision making. Currently, the LPCIS system uses linear equations and matrices to calculate lobe power through multipliers and coefficients. Advancements in technology and system upgrades have increased the accuracy of power readings by making the system more dynamic. The new proposed coefficient and multiplier method implements a cycle specific and physics-based model intended for changing coefficients during operation. This calibration experiment focused on power splitting, outer shim and neck shim, as well as fuel burning into the reactor digital acquisition system (RDAS) weighting factors. Results demonstrated that the physics learning method yields a smaller error margin inside of the desired power range for the data set 166-A. Continuing to improve the physics-based model will help improve the power accuracy of the LPCIS system.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Peatland hydrology across scale: a probabilistic framework for confronting variability, heterogeneity, and uncertainty (Final Report)

Our project aimed to guide the representations of peatland hydrology and water-carbon feedbacks within Earth System Models, by improving process understanding and developing parsimonious models that elucidate the effects of hydroclimatic variability and spatial heterogeneity. Our research questions centered on the three key drivers of peatland hydrology: (1) seasonal and interannual hydroclimatic fluctuations, (2) spatial heterogeneity of peatland microtopography, and (3) hydrological connectivity across landscape units within a peatland watershed. Our analyses and model testing used existing long-term datasets within the Marcell Experimental Forest (MEF), with new data collected whenever necessary. To date, we have demonstrated the strong influence of water table elevations on the temperature sensitivity of CH 4 emissions, using a newly developed eddy covariance dataset spanning eleven years at MEF. Specifically, higher water tables dampen the increase in CH 4 emissions in the spring as well as their decrease in the fall, resulting in hysteresis. These results imply that any hydroclimatological changes in peatlands that shift seasonal water availability from winter to summer will increase annual CH 4 emissions, even if soil temperature remains unchanged. To further investigate water table elevation change within the peatland microtopography, we installed automated water table gauges across four bog-forest transects (the “lagg”) in two peatland watersheds at MEF, which are hotspots of intense biogeochemical activity. These measurements will give us new information about the extent of lagg expansion and contraction during snowmelt and high intensity rainfall events, as well as the directionality of water and nutrient flow into the bog from the surrounding forests. Finally, we investigated the hydrological connectivity across the peatland watershed complex during early spring – a critical period where water table is elevated from snowmelt – using extended hydrological records from MEF (e.g., snow and frost depths, water table elevations, streamflow). The importance of thermal and wintertime processes within the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) was determined through sensitivity analyses. Results from data analyses show that (i) streamflow has decreased over decades likely due to increased evapotranspiration rates (despite no detectable trends in precipitation), (ii) spring streamflow generation is controlled by a sequence of fill-and-spill pathways from the snowpack to the stream through peatland water stores, and (iii) frost depth is a key explanatory variable for the timing and magnitude of streamflow. These results suggest that frost plays an important role in connecting surface water storage in peatlands to stream outlets, and that the hydrological connectivity across the peatland watershed complex can mediate the sensitivity of hydrological responses to climate variations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Multi-Physics System-level Simulations of a Generic Pebble Bed High-Temperature Gas Cooled Reactor with Coupled SAM/Griffin Model

A SAM model for a 200 MWth generic pebble bed high-temperature gas-cooled reactor (PBHTGR) is presented in this work. As an extension to the modeling effort from FY-22 (Ooi et al. (2022)), an improved core channel approach is used to model the pebble bed of the reactor. The improvement greatly simplifies the model and reduces the run time of the model. Furthermore, the SAM model is coupled to the Griffin reactor physics model from Stewart et al. (2021) using the MOOSE MultiApp system where neutronics calculations are performed by the Griffin model and thermal hydraulics calculations by the SAM model. Favorable predictions are produced by the SAM/Griffin coupled model for steady-state normal operating condition. A load-following transient is also simulated with the coupled model where the neutronics and thermal hydraulics responses of the core are predicted correctly by the model. A protected Pressurized Loss of Forced Cooling (PLOFC) accident is simulated with the SAM model, in which the reactor power is determined using the decay heat curve, and therefore the Griffin model is not needed and thus decoupled. A simplified RCCS (Reactor Cavity Cooling System) loop is added to the model to remove decay heat from the core during the transient. Qualitatively, the prediction by the SAM model matches the expected behavior of a PB-HTGR during a PLOFC accident.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Application of thermal energy storage with electrified heating and cooling in a cold climate

Ground source heat pumps (GSHPs) have been shown to be an effective means of decarbonizing building heating and cooling, but the operation of these systems at scale presents challenges to sites and the grid due to increases in peak demand. Here, in this study, we investigate how the use of Thermal Energy Storage (TES), in the form of stratified water storage, could reduce the peak daily demand associated with GSHP systems and thus improve their cost effectiveness. This system was compared to a Combined Heat and Power (CHP) plant, to investigate the potential cost and emissions impacts of electrification on large energy users transitioning from high efficiency fossil fuel equipment. This study builds on previous research by using a significant campus area, and investigating the various impacts of an electrified system versus a state of the art fossil fuel system. An established method of TRNSYS modeling is used for the heat pumps and borehole heat exchangers (BHEs), along with the TES. The GSHP system with TES is modeled to follow industry standards and sized to provide an optimal balance of capital and operating costs. Costs were investigated for a unique large energy user rate structure, as well as for a more common generalized rate structure. The results show that the addition of TES to the GSHP system could reduce operating costs by 4.5%, but still incurs a 5.64% cost increase from the baseline CHP system. It is also shown, however, that a tactical integration of heat pumps into the CHP system is the most cost effective solution, only increasing the operating costs by 4.71%. Likewise, the impacts of different rate structures are highlighted, with the TES only resulting in 0.75% cost savings under the generalized utility rate. Furthermore, it is shown that thermal storage has great potential for demand reduction, with the addition of storage incurring a decrease of 7–22% in annual peak demand kW, dependent on the rate structure.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Virtual storage capability of residential buildings for sustainable smart city via model-based predictive control

This paper evaluates the virtual storage capability of a residential air-conditioning (AC) system by utilizing the building mass as a thermal storage to enable sustainable cities through model-based predictive control (MPC). The control-oriented building model was developed with a grey-box model structure based on the experimental data to predict the indoor air temperature. Based on the model, the operation cost-saving potential of the MPC was investigated in a single house with different comfort levels, electricity prices, and prediction horizons. The cost-saving of the MPC was approximately 10.6 % compared to the conventional control. The MPC was expanded to a residential building cluster considering the peak demand charge. In an hourly shedding and load-up scenario, the performances of the MPC and the heuristic prior-based control (PBC) are promising. When shedding was enforced all day, the peak demand saving of the MPC was 36~38 %, whereas that of the PBC was 25.7 % compared to the baseline. In addition, the monthly electricity bill, including the operation and peak demand cost, was investigated with different demand charge rates and weather conditions. The total saving decreased with a low demand charge rate and hot conditions, and the operation cost saving was compromised with more aggressive demand shedding.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

A New 1D Model for Thermal Mixing and Stratification in Advanced Reactor Transients

Thermal mixing and stratification in large pools and enclosures play a critical role in the safety and performance of pool-type nuclear reactors, particularly during transient scenarios involving significant temperature differences between incoming and bulk coolant. Accurate modeling of these phenomena is essential for predicting system behavior and supporting passive safety features such as natural circulation. Here, this paper presents a new 1D model for thermal mixing and stratification, developed and implemented in the SAM code. The model represents a large pool as 1D coolant jet channels and zero-dimensional bulk pool volumes, enabling the simulation of a wide range of flow configurations, including hot and cold jet interactions, stratified layers, and the influence of complex geometries such as ceilings, free surfaces, and internal obstacles. Heat exchange between jet and pool regions is governed by closure relations calibrated against 3D computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations. The model improves upon earlier approaches by incorporating time-dependent jet characteristics and capturing the associated delay effects more accurately. Code-to-code comparisons and validation against experimental data from the Thermal Stratification Test Facility demonstrate the model’s accuracy and flexibility. This work offers two key contributions: (1) an efficient and robust method for simulating thermal mixing and stratification at the system level, eliminating the need for external coupling between system analysis codes and CFD, and (2) a significant enhancement of SAM’s capabilities to analyze thermal stratification phenomena in advanced reactor systems.

SAM↗