Results for “system emulation” — Page 18

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Service Provider Agnostic Adaptive Coding and Modulation System Design

Commercial service providers (CSPs) are increasingly used to provide communications services to near-Earth science and exploration missions. CSPs commonly utilize modems that are designed to implement adaptive coding and modulation (ACM) in unique ways with modems from the same vendor. However, some missions cannot fly a matching vendor modem, either because the vendor only designs modems for terrestrial use, or the mission needs to fly a software defined radio. We present an ACM system design that allows missions to implement ACM on DVB-S2 compliant CSP links without needing to fly a modem from the same vendor the CSP uses. We implement and test our design in an emulated communications testbed. These tests demonstrate that our ACM system design can successfully adapt to link quality changes up to 6.12 dB/second.

Adaptive coding and modulation↗

DOE OSTI2021

Exploration of multifidelity UQ sampling strategies for computer network applications.

Network modeling is a powerful tool to enable rapid analysis of complex systems that can be challenging to study directly using physical testing. Here, two approaches are considered: emulation and simulation. The former runs real software on virtualized hardware, while the latter mimics the behavior of network components and their interactions in software. Although emulation provides an accurate representation of physical networks, this approach alone cannot guarantee the characterization of the system under realistic operative conditions. Operative conditions for physical networks are often characterized by intrinsic variability (payload size, packet latency, etc.) or a lack of precise knowledge regarding the network configuration (bandwidth, delays, etc.); therefore uncertainty quantification (UQ) strategies should be also employed. UQ strategies require multiple evaluations of the system with a number of evaluation instances that roughly increases with the problem dimensionality, i.e., the number of uncertain parameters. It follows that a typical UQ workflow for network modeling based on emulation can easily become unattainable due to its prohibitive computational cost. In this paper, a multifidelity sampling approach is discussed and applied to network modeling problems. The main idea is to optimally fuse information coming from simulations, which are a low-fidelity version of the emulation problem of interest, in order to decrease the estimator variance. By reducing the estimator variance in a sampling approach it is usually possible to obtain more reliable statistics and therefore a more reliable system characterization. Several network problems of increasing difficulty are presented. For each of them, the performance of the multifidelity estimator is compared with respect to the single fidelity counterpart, namely, Monte Carlo sampling. For all the test problems studied in this work, the multifidelity estimator demonstrated an increased efficiency with respect to MC.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS2018

CAIDA CUI Confirmation for OMRS & LCC SOCRRATES Emulator and iSEE Upgrade, Operations, & Analysis

This internship has focused on providing solutions for the Customer Avionics Interface Development and Analysis (CAIDA) subsystem. The main emulator that has been used during this internship is the Software-Only CEV (Crew Exploration Vehicle) Risk Reduction Analysis and Test Engineering Simulator (SOCRRATES). This emulator uses advanced math and physics methods to simulate specific points in a mission, such as ascent, entry, and orbit. Exploration Ground Systems (EGS) must ensure that all KSC based ground systems can be properly integrated with the flight vehicle software, therefore, the Modeling and Simulation Branch (NE-XM) of the KSC (Kennedy Space Center) Engineering Directorate supports a virtual environment that simulates the interface between ground systems and the flight vehicle. A primary component in assuring that is knowing whether the emulators have incorporated the correct CUIs (Compact Unique Identifiers) into their system, as well as understanding both the static and dynamic responses of the individual CUIs. Also, an effort for verification of Operational Maintenance Requirements Specifications (OMRS) and Launch Commit Criteria (LCC) that are supported by SOCRRATES for the Orion Crew Module were part of the project tasks this semester. This internship also focused on comparing two different simulation Commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) products and to determine whether or not a COTS package was a viable replacement for the current software that the iSEE (Immersive Simulations and Engineering Environment) lab uses. Upon research and testing, I found that this software was not feasible for the lab. It could not easily load CAD (Computer-Aided Design) or CREO models, give live feedback while the user is in the environment, and was not compatible with a virtual reality headset, all of which are necessary for the lab.

Bundy, Caleb↗

DOE OSTI2024

STITCHES: a Python package to amalgamate existing Earth system model output into new scenario realizations

Understanding the interaction between humans and the Earth system is a computationally daunting task, with many possible approaches depending on resources available and questions of interest. For example, state-of-the-art impact models require decade-long time series of relatively high frequency, spatially resolved and often multiple variables representing climatic impact-drivers (Ruane et al., 2022). Most commonly these are derived from the outputs of detailed, computationally expensive Earth System Models (ESMs) run according to a standard, limited set of future scenarios, the latest being the SSP-RCPs run under CMIP6/ScenarioMIP (Eyring et al., 2016; O’Neill et al., 2016). At the time of writing, O’Neill et al. (2016) has been cited more than 1750 times and Eyring et al. (2016) more than 5000 times, highlighting the broad, general applications of this data. Often, however, impact modeling seeks to explore new scenarios that were not part of the ScenarioMIP protocol, and/or needs a larger set of initial condition ensemble members than are typically available to quantify the effects of ESM internal variability. In addition, the recognition that the human and Earth systems are fundamentally intertwined, and may feature potentially significant feedback loops, is making integrated, simultaneous modeling of the coupled human-Earth system increasingly necessary, if computationally challenging with most existing tools (Thornton et al., 2017). For impact modelers, climate model emulators can be the answer to meet both the needs of: 1) creating realizations for novel scenarios and 2) achieving a simplified, computationally tractable representation of ESM behavior in a coupled human-Earth system modeling framework. We proposed a new, comprehensive approach to such emulation of gridded, multivariate ESM outputs for novel scenarios without the computational cost of a full ESM, STITCHES (Tebaldi et al., 2022). The approach outlined in Tebaldi et al. (2022) should be extensible to future CMIP eras, although the STITCHES software at present is strictly focused on CMIP6/ScenarioMIP data hosted on Pangeo (https://gallery.pangeo.io/repos/pangeo-gallery/cmip6/). The corresponding STITCHES Python package uses existing archives of ESMs’ scenario experiments from CMIP6/ScenarioMIP to construct gridded, multivariate realizations of new scenarios provided by reduced complexity climate models (Hartin et al., 2015; Meinshausen et al., 2011; Smith et al., 2018), or to enrich existing initial condition ensembles. Its output provides the same characteristics as the emulated ESM output: multivariate (spanning potentially all variables that the ESM has saved), spatially resolved (down to the native grid of the ESM), and preserving the same high frequency as the original data. A new realization of multiple variables can be generated on the order of minutes with STITCHES, rather than the hours or sometimes days that ESMs require.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Cyber-Physical Event Emulation-Based Transmission-and-Distribution Co-Simulation for Situational Awareness of Grid Anomalies (SAGA)

Energy management of transmission and distribution networks (T&D) is becoming more challenging with the accelerated adoption of distributed energy resources (DERs)-such as distributed photovoltaic generation and battery energy storage systems (BESS)-on the electric grid. To better analyze the impacts of DERs on both transmission and distribution systems, a comprehensive T&D co-simulation platform is developed. Further, with DERs more actively participating in system operation-e.g., by providing real-time grid services-their cyber vulnerability needs to be better understood to maintain system reliability. This paper discusses a cyber-physical events emulation-based T&D co-simulation platform to perform comprehensive cyber events emulations, physical simulation, and analysis of interdependent impacts. Results from the case studies-which show how cyber events on a synthetic distribution network can impact operations on the transmission and distribution network-validate that the proposed T&D cosimulation platform can perform cyber-physical events emulation and produce response in near realtime; therefore, with extensive simulation using the proposed co-simulation platform, the system operators can accumulate adequate training data for system situational awareness of grid anomalies.

anomalies detection↗

DOE OSTI2022

Photovoltaic System Health-State Architecture for Data-Driven Failure Detection

The timely detection of photovoltaic (PV) system failures is important for maintaining optimal performance and lifetime reliability. A main challenge remains the lack of a unified health-state architecture for the uninterrupted monitoring and predictive performance of PV systems. To this end, existing failure detection models are strongly dependent on the availability and quality of site-specific historic data. The scope of this work is to address these fundamental challenges by presenting a health-state architecture for advanced PV system monitoring. The proposed architecture comprises of a machine learning model for PV performance modeling and accurate failure diagnosis. The predictive model is optimally trained on low amounts of on-site data using minimal features and coupled to functional routines for data quality verification, whereas the classifier is trained under an enhanced supervised learning regime. The results demonstrated high accuracies for the implemented predictive model, exhibiting normalized root mean square errors lower than 3.40% even when trained with low data shares. The classification results provided evidence that fault conditions can be detected with a sensitivity of 83.91% for synthetic power-loss events (power reduction of 5%) and of 97.99% for field-emulated failures in the test-bench PV system. Finally, this work provides insights on how to construct an accurate PV system with predictive and classification models for the timely detection of faults and uninterrupted monitoring of PV systems, regardless of historic data availability and quality. Such guidelines and insights on the development of accurate health-state architectures for PV plants can have positive implications in operation and maintenance and monitoring strategies, thus improving the system’s performance.

photovoltaics↗

DOE OSTI2025

Implementation and Demonstration of the Digital Twin Certification System Remote Operations Framework

Microreactors are one promising advanced-reactor concept being pursued by the nuclear industry. They are distinguished by a relatively low power output of 20 MWth or less. These microreactors are intended for deployment in applications where conventional small-capacity power solutions, such as diesel generators, are either economically unfeasible or logistically challenging. Such applications include providing electric power and/or heat for remote communities, mining sites, defense installations, and humanitarian and disaster-relief missions. An important feature for the successful deployment of microreactors is their capability to be operated remotely. This capability can significantly reduce staffing costs by eliminating the need for licensed operators to be physically present at each reactor site. Instead, operators can be centralized in a single remote operations center placed in an economically advantageous location, thereby optimizing resources by consolidating expertise and enhancing operational efficiency. However, the implementation of a remote operation system for nuclear reactors raises new concerns regarding the security, reliability, and resilience of such a system. One way in which remote operations can be supported in a manner that maintains system security, reliability, and resilience is through the use of digital twins in a novel framework designed to verify and validate sensor data and commands communicated between the remote operations center and reactor. This framework, known as the Digital Twin Certification System (DTCS), has previously been proposed as an operations architecture that can bring security and resiliency levels of remote nuclear-reactor operations to a level acceptable for commercial deployment. This paper moves the proposed DTCS architecture from concept to reality by presenting the implementation and testing of the system. The rationale and implementation of the DTCS using tools such as DeepLynx and Apache Airflow, is covered in-depth. This is followed by a demonstration of the DTCS by applying the implemented system architecture to the Single Primary Heat Extraction and Removal Emulator, a small-scale non-nuclear test bed that emulates thermal behavior of a microreactor. The demonstration includes both normal and abnormal operating scenarios to highlight how the DTCS can increase the security, reliability, and resilience of a remote operations system.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Implementation and Demonstration of the Digital Twin Certification System Remote Operations Framework

Microreactors are one promising advanced-reactor concept being pursued by the nuclear industry. They are distinguished by a relatively low power output of 20 MWth or less. These microreactors are intended for deployment in applications where conventional small-capacity power solutions, such as diesel generators, are either economically unfeasible or logistically challenging. Such applications include providing electric power and/or heat for remote communities, mining sites, defense installations, and humanitarian and disaster-relief missions. An important feature for the successful deployment of microreactors is their capability to be operated remotely. This capability can significantly reduce staffing costs by eliminating the need for licensed operators to be physically present at each reactor site. Instead, operators can be centralized in a single remote operations center placed in an economically advantageous location, thereby optimizing resources by consolidating expertise and enhancing operational efficiency. However, the implementation of a remote operation system for nuclear reactors raises new concerns regarding the security, reliability, and resilience of such a system. One way in which remote operations can be supported in a manner that maintains system security, reliability, and resilience is through the use of digital twins in a novel framework designed to verify and validate sensor data and commands communicated between the remote operations center and reactor. This framework, known as the Digital Twin Certification System (DTCS), has previously been proposed as an operations architecture that can bring security and resiliency levels of remote nuclear-reactor operations to a level acceptable for commercial deployment. This paper moves the proposed DTCS architecture from concept to reality by presenting the implementation and testing of the system. The rationale and implementation of the DTCS using tools such as DeepLynx and Apache Airflow, is covered in-depth. This is followed by a demonstration of the DTCS by applying the implemented system architecture to the Single Primary Heat Extraction and Removal Emulator, a small-scale non-nuclear test bed that emulates thermal behavior of a microreactor. The demonstration includes both normal and abnormal operating scenarios to highlight how the DTCS can increase the security, reliability, and resilience of a remote operations system.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Automated Adversary-in-the-Loop Cyber-Physical Defense Planning

Security of cyber-physical systems (CPS) continues to pose new challenges due to the tight integration and operational complexity of the cyber and physical components. To address these challenges, this article presents a domain-aware, optimization-based approach to determine an effective defense strategy for CPS in an automated fashion—by emulating a strategic adversary in the loop that exploits system vulnerabilities, interconnection of the CPS, and the dynamics of the physical components. Our approach builds on an adversarial decision-making model based on a Markov Decision Process (MDP) that determines the optimal cyber (discrete) and physical (continuous) attack actions over a CPS attack graph. The defense planning problem is modeled as a non-zero-sum game between the adversary and defender. We use a model-free reinforcement learning method to solve the adversary’s problem as a function of the defense strategy. We then employ Bayesian optimization (BO) to find an approximate best-response for the defender to harden the network against the resulting adversary policy. This process is iterated multiple times to improve the strategy for both players. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach on a ransomware-inspired graph with a smart building system as the physical process. Numerical studies show that our method converges to a Nash equilibrium for various defender-specific costs of network hardening.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Generic characterization of electrical test benches for AC- and HVDC-connected wind power plants

The electrical test and assessment of wind turbines go hand in hand with standards and network connection requirements. In this paper, the generic structure of advanced electrical test benches, including grid emulator or controllable grid interface, wind torque emulator, and device under test, is proposed to harmonize state-of-the-art test sites. On the other hand, modern wind turbines are under development towards new features, concerning grid-forming, black-start, and frequency support capabilities as well as harmonic stability and control interaction considerations, to secure the robustness and stability of renewable-energy-based power systems. Therefore, it is necessary to develop new and revised test standards and methodologies to address the new features of wind turbines. This paper proposes a generic test structure within two main groups, including open-loop and closed-loop tests. The open-loop tests include the IEC 61400-21-1 standard tests as well as the additional proposed test options for the new capabilities of wind turbines, which replicate grid connection compliance tests using open-loop references for the grid emulator. In addition, the closed-loop tests evaluate the device under test as part of a virtual wind power plant and perform real-time simulations considering the grid dynamics. The closed-loop tests concern grid connection topologies consisting of AC and HVDC, as well as different electrical characteristics, including impedance, short-circuit ratio, inertia, and background harmonics. The proposed tests can be implemented using available advanced test benches by adjusting their control systems. The characteristics of a real power system can be emulated by a grid emulator coupled with real-time digital simulator systems through a high-bandwidth power-hardware-in-the-loop interface.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Development and Demonstration of a Reduced-Order PWR Power Dispatch Simulator

This report describes the development, modeling, and results of a reduced-order thermal power dispatch pressurized water reactor (RO-TPD-PWR) power plant simulator that incorporates coupled electrical and thermal power dispatch to an industrial process. The simulator is built on models that have been developed in previous work, including a Rancor Microworld model previously developed by INL and the University of Idaho [Ref] and reactor core and secondary system models that have been published previously [Ref]. The simulator also includes a scalable model of a high temperature electrolysis (HTE) system that has been developed at INL. A particular benefit of the Rancor Microworld model is that it is compatible with a human-system interface (HMI) that has already been developed by the Human System Simulation Laboratory (HSSL) at INL that can emulate the control room of a PWR for realistic human-in-the-loop studies with mock nuclear power plant operating procedures. The results of these human-in-the-loop tests will be compared with similar tests using a commercial full-scope generic PWR (GPWR) simulator that has been modified to include thermal power dispatch, referred to as the TPD-GPWR [ , ]. The simplicity of the RO-TPD-PWR helps to better understand and verify the results of the TPD-GPWR, which employs >1,000 variables and has much greater complexity. A second key purpose of the RO-TPD-PWR simulator is that its relative simplicity allows it scale between lab-size equipment (~100 kW) and full-scale nuclear power plants (~1 GW) by adjusting only a few parameters in the models, such as fluid masses and heat exchanger areas. The RO-TPD-PWR simulator will be used to guide the controls of lab tests, so that equipment in those tests, such as the Thermal Energy Distribution System (TEDS) and pilot-scale high temperature electrolysis (HTE) units at scales of 50-250 kW, may operate in a manner that is relevant to full-scale PWR operations.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2025

High-Fidelity Building Emulator for Integrated Comfort and Energy Analysis using EnergyPlus and Radiance

The growing need for smart, energy-efficient, and occupant-centric buildings has created a demand for advanced control systems that can optimize building operations to balance energy savings, demand flexibility, and comfort. However, current building energy simulation tools, such as EnergyPlus, have limitations that hinder the development and evaluation of these complex control systems. To address this challenge, we introduce a high-fidelity building emulator that dynamically couples EnergyPlus with Radiance for enhanced daylight modeling. The introduced workflow allows researchers and practitioners to rapidly develop and evaluate innovative control solutions. An example study looking at a south-facing office zone revealed up to 67% deviation in predicted light levels, which can significantly impact building assessment.

Yu, Tammie↗

DOE OSTI2025

Computationally efficient subglacial drainage modelling using Gaussian process emulators: GlaDS-GP v1.0

Subglacial drainage models represent water flow at the ice–bed interface through coupled distributed and channelized systems to determine water pressure, discharge, and drainage system geometry. While they are used to understand processes such as the relationship between surface melt and ice flow, the number of uncertain model parameters and the computational cost of running models makes it difficult to adequately explore the high-dimensional parameter space and evaluate uncertainty in model predictions. Here, we develop Gaussian process (GP) emulators that make fast predictions with associated uncertainty of subglacial drainage model outputs. Using a truncated principal component (PC) basis representation, we construct a GP emulator for diurnally averaged subglacial water pressure. We also explore emulation of scalar variables describing drainage efficiency and configuration. We train the emulators using ensembles of up to 512 simulations varying eight parameters of the Glacier Drainage System (GlaDS) model on a synthetic domain intended to represent an ice-sheet margin. The emulators make predictions ∼ 1000 times faster than GlaDS simulations, with errors <3 % for the water pressure field and ∼ 5 %–9 % for drainage efficiency and configuration. We apply the emulators to explore the eight-dimensional parameter space by computing variance-based parameter sensitivity indices, finding that three parameters (ice flow coefficient, bed bump aspect ratio, and the subglacial cavity system conductivity) explain 90 % of the variance in modelled water pressure in response to parameter changes. The GP emulator approach described here is well suited to integrating observational data with models to make calibrated, credible predictions of subglacial drainage.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1984

Environmental control and life support system analysis tools for the Space Station era

This paper describes the concept of a developing emulation, simulation, sizing, and technology assessment program (ESSTAP) which can be used effectively for the various functional disciplines (structures, power, ECLSS, etc.) beginning with the initial system selection and conceptual design processes and continuing on through the mission operation and growth phases of the Space Station for the purpose of minimizing overall program costs. It will discuss the basic requirements for these tools, as currently envisioned for the Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS), identifying their intended and potential uses and applications, and present examples and status of several representative tools. The development and applications of a Space Station Atmospheric Revitalization Subsystem (ARS) demonstration model to be used for concent verification will also be discussed.

Blakely, R. L.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Results from Carbon Dioxide Washout Testing Using a Suited Manikin Test Apparatus with a Space Suit Ventilation Test Loop

NASA is developing an advanced portable life support system (PLSS) to meet the needs of a new NASA advanced space suit. The PLSS is one of the most critical aspects of the space suit providing the necessary oxygen, ventilation, and thermal protection for an astronaut performing a spacewalk. The ventilation subsystem in the PLSS must provide sufficient carbon dioxide (CO2) removal and ensure that the CO2 is washed away from the oronasal region of the astronaut. CO2 washout is a term used to describe the mechanism by which CO2 levels are controlled within the helmet to limit the concentration of CO2 inhaled by the astronaut. Accumulation of CO2 in the helmet or throughout the ventilation loop could cause the suited astronaut to experience hypercapnia (excessive carbon dioxide in the blood). A suited manikin test apparatus (SMTA) integrated with a space suit ventilation test loop was designed, developed, and assembled at NASA in order to experimentally validate adequate CO2 removal throughout the PLSS ventilation subsystem and to quantify CO2 washout performance under various conditions. The test results from this integrated system will be used to validate analytical models and augment human testing. This paper presents the system integration of the PLSS ventilation test loop with the SMTA including the newly developed regenerative Rapid Cycle Amine component used for CO2 removal and tidal breathing capability to emulate the human. The testing and analytical results of the integrated system are presented along with future work.

Chullen, Cinda↗

NASA NTRS2016

Results from Carbon Dioxide Washout Testing Using a Suited Manikin Test Apparatus with a Space Suit Ventilation Test Loop

NASA is developing an advanced portable life support system (PLSS) to meet the needs of a new NASA advanced space suit. The PLSS is one of the most critical aspects of the space suit providing the necessary oxygen, ventilation, and thermal protection for an astronaut performing a spacewalk. The ventilation subsystem in the PLSS must provide sufficient carbon dioxide (CO2) removal and ensure that the CO2 is washed away from the oronasal region of the astronaut. CO2 washout is a term used to describe the mechanism by which CO2 levels are controlled within the helmet to limit the concentration of CO2 inhaled by the astronaut. Accumulation of CO2 in the helmet or throughout the ventilation loop could cause the suited astronaut to experience hypercapnia (excessive carbon dioxide in the blood). A suited manikin test apparatus (SMTA) integrated with a space suit ventilation test loop was designed, developed, and assembled at NASA in order to experimentally validate adequate CO2 removal throughout the PLSS ventilation subsystem and to quantify CO2 washout performance under various conditions. The test results from this integrated system will be used to validate analytical models and augment human testing. This paper presents the system integration of the PLSS ventilation test loop with the SMTA including the newly developed regenerative Rapid Cycle Amine component used for CO2 removal and tidal breathing capability to emulate the human. The testing and analytical results of the integrated system are presented along with future work.

Chullen, Cinda↗

DOE OSTI2023

Influenza A Virus Multicycle Replication Yields Comparable Viral Population Emergence in Human Respiratory and Ocular Cell Types

While primarily considered a respiratory pathogen, influenza A virus (IAV) is nonetheless capable of spreading to, and replicating in, numerous extrapulmonary tissues in humans. However, within-host assessments of genetic diversity during multicycle replication have been largely limited to respiratory tract tissues and specimens. As selective pressures can vary greatly between anatomical sites, there is a need to examine how measures of viral diversity may vary between influenza viruses exhibiting different tropisms in humans, as well as following influenza virus infection of cells derived from different organ systems. Here, we employed human primary tissue constructs emulative of the human airway or corneal surface, and we infected both with a panel of human- and avian-origin IAV, inclusive of H1 and H3 subtype human viruses and highly pathogenic H5 and H7 subtype viruses, which are associated with both respiratory disease and conjunctivitis following human infection. While both cell types supported productive replication of all viruses, airway-derived tissue constructs elicited greater induction of genes associated with antiviral responses than did corneal-derived constructs. We used next-generation sequencing to examine viral mutations and population diversity, utilizing several metrics. With few exceptions, generally comparable measures of viral diversity and mutational frequency were detected following homologous virus infection of both respiratory-origin and ocular-origin tissue constructs. Expansion of within-host assessments of genetic diversity to include IAV with atypical clinical presentations in humans or in extrapulmonary cell types can provide greater insight into understanding those features most prone to modulation in the context of viral tropism.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2014

MARGInS: Model-Based Analysis of Realizable Goals in Systems

Under NASAs Constellation effort, the Exploration Technology Development Program funded research toward a system validation capability that applied machine learning and test-case generation techniques to the analysis of black-box system behavior. The behavior analysis capability scaled to spaces of hundreds of input parameters and tens of thousands of test cases. Aerospace systems at the vehicle level, especially those systems which contain some level of autonomy, are best described by hybrid and non-linear mathematics. Even simplified models of such systems need parameter dimensionalities in the hundreds or thousands of parameters in order to capture sufficient fidelity. The System Safety Assessments (such as those described in the SAE ARP 4761A Safety Assessment Process guidelines) for these systems are prone to errorinteractions between the vehicles subsystems are complex, and can display emergent behaviors. NASA captured this new analysis in the Model-based Analysis of Realizable Goals in Systems (MARGInS) tool and applied it to the Pad Abort 1 (PA-1) simulation as part of the independent validation and verification cycle before the PA-1 flight test in May of 2010. MARGInS evaluated the adherence of the high-fidelity simulation to its requirements, and deter- mined the margins to failure from the expected nominal input conditions. Following the PA-1 test, the capabilities within the MARGInS framework have been extended with sophisticated statistical and white-box test case generation techniques and applied to other NASA missions. The frame- work now includes a critical factors analysis that was applied to NASAs Orion simulation and design. NASAs Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate (ARMD) leveraged the existing MARGInS framework for work on aviation safety for civil transport vehicles and for research on autonomy issues. The NASA ARMD effort created a time series output prediction capability that has been used to characterize trajectories for a plane with an adaptive control system, and a safety boundary detection capability that has been applied to an air traffic control concept of operation for the Federal Aviation Administration. The statistical and machine- learning based techniques within MARGInS have been successfully combined with concolic execution to improve the coverage of a critical unit by driving system-level inputs. The use case driving the concolic execution and MARGInS integration was inspired by the Air France 447 disaster in which the loss of a critical functionality (the airspeed calculation from the pitot tubes) led to loss of the entire plane with the people aboard. To illustrate capabilities and limitations, we will highlight the analyses for the applications listed above. We will then discuss the future plans for MARGInS and its interfaces with other tools.

Validation↗