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At least 325 records · Page 18

A Multi-Model Adaptive Kalman Filtering Approach to Power System Dynamic State Estimation

Accurate information about dynamic states (such as rotor angle and speed of a synchronous machine) is important for monitoring and controlling power system rotor-angle stability. In this paper, a multi-model adaptive Kalman filtering (MMAKF) approach is proposed to accurately and robustly estimate power system dynamic states. This approach consists of three major steps: (i) multiple Kalman filtering approaches, i.e., the extended Kalman filter (EKF), unscented Kalman filter (UKF), ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), and cubature Kalman filter (CKF), are run concurrently in parallel to estimate the dynamic states of a synchronous generator using phasor measurement unit data; (ii) probability indexes, which quantify the likelihood of each estimation model, are determined at each time step using hypothesis testing based on the measurement innovation; (iii) the a posteriori estimate of states is obtained using the best-fix approach. The two-area four-machine system is used to evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed MMAKF approach. It is shown through the Monte-Carlo method that the estimation accuracy and robustness of the proposed approach is better than those from any individual filtering algorithm.

multi-model adaptive Kalman Filtering, Power Syste↗

On the Validity of Linear Response Theory in High-Dimensional Deterministic Dynamical Systems

This theoretical work considers the following conundrum: linear response theory is successfully used by scientists in numerous fields, but mathematicians have shown that typical low-dimensional dynamical systems violate the theory’s assumptions. Here we provide a proof of concept for the validity of linear response theory in high-dimensional deterministic systems for large-scale observables. We introduce an exemplary model in which observables of resolved degrees of freedom are weakly coupled to a large, inhomogeneous collection of unresolved chaotic degrees of freedom. By employing statistical limit laws we give conditions under which such systems obey linear response theory even if all the degrees of freedom individually violate linear response. We corroborate our result with numerical simulations.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Irreducibility of large-scale dynamical systems of uni-modules

We consider the class of large-scale dynamical systems consisting of identical subsystems, but with complex connectivity. It is shown that the irreducibility of this large system is directly related to the irreducibility of a simple system, which is obtained by a replacement of the subsystems by integrators.

Singh, S. P.↗

Flight dynamics system software development environment (FDS/SDE) tutorial

A sample development scenario using the Flight Dynamics System Software Development Environment (FDS/SDE) is presented. The SDE uses a menu-driven, fill-in-the-blanks format that provides online help at all steps, thus eliminating lengthy training and allowing immediate use of this new software development tool.

Buell, John↗

A mixed method Poisson solver for three-dimensional self-gravitating astrophysical fluid dynamical systems

A key ingredient in the simulation of self-gravitating astrophysical fluid dynamical systems is the gravitational potential and its gradient. This paper focuses on the development of a mixed method multigrid solver of the Poisson equation formulated so that both the potential and the Cartesian components of its gradient are self-consistently and accurately generated. The method achieves this goal by formulating the problem as a system of four equations for the gravitational potential and the three Cartesian components of the gradient and solves them using a distributed relaxation technique combined with conventional full multigrid V-cycles. The method is described, some tests are presented, and the accuracy of the method is assessed. We also describe how the method has been incorporated into our three-dimensional hydrodynamics code and give an example of an application to the collision of two stars. We end with some remarks about the future developments of the method and some of the applications in which it will be used in astrophysics.

Duncan, Comer↗

Dynamical Aquaplanet Experiments with Uniform Thermal Forcing: System Dynamics and Implications for Tropical Cyclone Genesis and Size

Existing hypotheses for the dynamical dependence of tropical cyclone genesis and size on latitude depend principally on the Coriolis parameter $f$. These hypotheses are tested via dynamical aquaplanet experiments with uniform thermal forcing in which planetary rotation rate and planetary radius are varied relative to Earth values; the control simulation is also compared to a present-day Earth simulation. Storm genesis rate collapses to a quasi-universal dependence on f that attains its maximum at the critical latitude, where the inverse-$f$ scale and Rhines scale are equal. Minimum genesis distance from the equator is set by the equatorial Rhines (or deformation) scale and not by a minimum value of $f$. Outer storm size qualitatively follows the smaller of the two length scales, including a slow increase with latitude equatorward of 45° in the control simulation, similar to the Earth simulation. The latitude of peak size scales with the critical latitude for varying planetary radius but not rotation rate, possibly because of the dependence of genesis specifically on $f$. The latitudes of peak size and peak packing density scale closely together. Results suggest that temporal effects and interstorm interaction may be significant for size dynamics. More generally, the critical latitude separates two regimes: 1) a mixed wave–cyclone equatorial belt, where wave effects are strong and the Rhines scale likely limits storm size, and 2) a cyclone-filled polar cap, where wave effects are weak and cyclones persist. Finally, the large-planet limit predicts a world nearly covered with long-lived storms, equivalent to the f plane. Overall, spherical geometry is likely important for understanding tropical cyclone genesis and size on Earthlike planets.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Crew system dynamics - Combining humans and automation

Some of the human factor issues involved in effectively combining human and automated systems are examined with particular reference to spaceflights. The concepts of the crew system and crew systems dynamics are defined, and the present status of crew systems is summarized. The possibilities and potential problems aasociated with the use of automated systems are discussed, as are unique capabilities and possible errors introduced by human participants. It is emphasized that the true integration of human and automated systems must allow for the characteristics of both.

Connors, Mary↗

Non-intrusive reduced-order modeling for dynamical systems with spatially localized features

This work presents a non-intrusive reduced-order modeling framework for dynamical systems with spatially localized features characterized by slow singular value decay. The proposed approach builds upon two existing methodologies for reduced and full-order non-intrusive modeling, namely Operator Inference (OpInf) and sparse Full-Order Model (sFOM) inference. We decompose the domain into two complementary subdomains that exhibit fast and slow singular value decay. The dynamics of the subdomain exhibiting slow singular value decay are learned with sFOM while the dynamics with intrinsically low dimensionality on the complementary subdomain are learned with OpInf. The resulting, coupled OpInf-sFOM formulation leverages the computational efficiency of OpInf and the high resolution of sFOM, and thus enables fast non-intrusive predictions for conditions beyond those sampled in the training data set. A novel regularization technique with a closed-form solution based on the Gershgorin disk theorem is introduced to promote stable sFOM and OpInf models. We also provide a data-driven indicator for subdomain selection and ensure solution smoothness over the interface via a post-processing interpolation step. We evaluate the efficiency of the approach in terms of offline and online speedup through a quantitative, parametric computational cost analysis. We demonstrate the coupled OpInf-sFOM formulation for two test cases: a one-dimensional Burgers’ model for which accurate predictions beyond the span of the training snapshots are presented, and a two-dimensional parametric model for the Pine Island Glacier ice thickness dynamics, for which the OpInf-sFOM model achieves an average prediction error on the order of 1% with an online speedup factor of approximately 8$\times$ compared to the numerical simulation.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Trust-Region Approximation of Extreme Trajectories in Power System Dynamics

In this work we present a novel technique, based on a trust-region optimization algorithm and second-order trajectory sensitivities, to compute the extreme trajectories of power system dynamic simulations given a bounded set that represents parametric uncertainty. Furthermore, we show how this method, while remaining computationally efficient compared with sampling-based techniques, overcomes the limitations of previous sensitivity-based techniques to approximate the bounds of the trajectories when the local approximation loses validity because of the nonlinearity. We present several numerical experiments that showcase the accuracy and scalability of the technique, including a demonstration on the IEEE New England test system.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Chapter 15: Using System Dynamics to Model Industry's Developmental Response to Energy Policy

In this chapter we explore the potential development of the biofuels industry using the Biomass Scenario Model (BSM), a system dynamics model developed at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory through the support of the U.S. Department of Energy. The BSM is designed to analyze the implications of policy on the development of the supply chain for biofuels in the United States. It explicitly represents the behavior of decision makers such as farmers, investors, fueling station owners, and consumers. We analyze several illustrative case studies that explore a range of policies and discuss how incentives interact with individual parts of the supply chain as well as the industry as a whole. The BSM represents specific incentives that are intended to approximate policy in the form of selected laws and regulations. Through characterizing the decision making behaviors of economic actors within the supply chain that critically influence the adoption rate of new biofuels production technologies and demonstrating synergies among policies, we find that incentives with coordinated impacts on each major element of the supply chain catalyze net effects of decision maker behavior such that the combined incentives are greater than the summed effects of individual incentives in isolation.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗