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At least 325 records · Page 18

Earth Observation System Flight Dynamics System Covariance Realism

This presentation applies a covariance realism technique to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Earth Observation System (EOS) Aqua and Aura spacecraft based on inferential statistics. The technique consists of three parts: collection calculation of definitive state estimates through orbit determination, calculation of covariance realism test statistics at each covariance propagation point, and proper assessment of those test statistics.

A-Train↗

Artificial intelligence techniques for integrative structural biology of intrinsically disordered proteins

Here, we outline recent developments in artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) techniques for integrative structural biology of intrinsically disordered proteins (IDP) ensembles. IDPs challenge the traditional protein structure-function paradigm by adapting their conformations in response to specific binding partners leading them to mediate diverse, and often complex cellular functions such as biological signaling, self-organization and compartmentalization. Obtaining mechanistic insights into their function can therefore be challenging for traditional structural determination techniques. Often, scientists have to rely on piecemeal evidence drawn from diverse experimental techniques to characterize their functional mechanisms. Multiscale simulations can help bridge critical knowledge gaps about IDP structure-function relationships - however, these techniques also face challenges in resolving emergent phenomena within IDP conformational ensembles. We posit that scalable statistical inference techniques can effectively integrate information gleaned from multiple experimental techniques as well as from simulations, thus providing access to atomistic details of these emergent phenomena.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Quantifying Graph Uncertainty from Communication Data

Graphs are a widely used abstraction for representing a variety of important real-world problems including emulating cyber networks for situational awareness, or studying social networks to understand human interactions or pandemic spread. Communication data is often converted into graphs to help understand social and technical patterns in the underlying communication data. However, prior to this project, little work had been performed analyzing how best to develop graphs from such data. Thus, many critical, national security problems were being performed against graph representations of questionable quality. Herein, we describe our analyses that were precursors to our final statistically grounded technique for creating static graph snapshots from a stream of communication events. The first analyzes the statistical distribution properties of a variety of real-world communication datasets generally fit best by Pareto, log normal, and extreme value distributions. The second derives graph properties that can be estimated given the expected statistical distribution for communication events and the communication interval to be viewed node observability, edge observability, and expected accuracy of node degree. Unfortunately, as that final process is under review for publication, we can't publish it here at this time.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Decision rules for unbiased inventory estimates

An efficient and accurate procedure for estimating inventories from remote sensing scenes is presented. In place of the conventional and expensive full dimensional Bayes decision rule, a one-dimensional feature extraction and classification technique was employed. It is shown that this efficient decision rule can be used to develop unbiased inventory estimates and that for large sample sizes typical of satellite derived remote sensing scenes, resulting accuracies are comparable or superior to more expensive alternative procedures. Mathematical details of the procedure are provided in the body of the report and in the appendix. Results of a numerical simulation of the technique using statistics obtained from an observed LANDSAT scene are included. The simulation demonstrates the effectiveness of the technique in computing accurate inventory estimates.

Argentiero, P. D.↗

Statistical evaluation of vibration analysis techniques

An evaluation methodology is presented for a selection of candidate vibration analysis techniques applicable to machinery representative of the environmental control and life support system of advanced spacecraft; illustrative results are given. Attention is given to the statistical analysis of small sample experiments, the quantification of detection performance for diverse techniques through the computation of probability of detection versus probability of false alarm, and the quantification of diagnostic performance.

Milner, G. Martin↗

Slow crack growth in spinel in water

Magnesium aluminate spinel was tested in a water environment at room temperature to establish its slow crack-growth behavior. Ring specimens with artificial flaws on the outside surface were loaded hydraulically on the inside surface. The time to failure was measured. Various precracking techniques were evaluated and multiple precracks were used to minimize the scatter in the static fatigue tests. Statistical analysis techniques were developed to determine the strength and crack velocities for a single flaw. Slow crack-growth rupture was observed at stress intensities as low as 70 percent of K sub c. A strengthening effect was observed in specimens that had survived long-time static fatigue tests.

Schwantes, S.↗

How May the Choice of Downscaling Techniques and Meteorological Reference Observations Affect Future Hydroclimate Projections?

Abstract We present an intercomparison of a suite of high‐resolution downscaled climate projections based on a six‐member General Circulation Model (GCM) ensemble from Coupled Models Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The CMIP6 GCMs have been downscaled using dynamical and statistical downscaling techniques based on two meteorological reference observations over the conterminous United States. We use the regional climate model, RegCM4, for dynamical downscaling, double bias correction constructed analogs method for statistical downscaling, and Daymet and Livneh datasets as the reference observations for statistical training and bias‐correction. We evaluate the performances of downscaled data in both historical and future periods under the SSP585 scenario. While dynamical downscaling improves the simulation of some performance evaluation indices, it adds an extra bias in others, highlighting the need for statistical correction before its use in impact assessments. Downscaled datasets after bias‐correction compare exceptionally well with observations. However, the choice of downscaling techniques and the underlying reference observations influence the hydroclimate characteristics of downscaled data. For instance, the statistical downscaling generally preserves the GCMs climate change signal but overestimates the frequency of hot extremes. Similarly, simulated future changes are sensitive to the choice of reference observations, particularly for precipitation extremes that exhibit a higher projected increase in the ensembles trained and/or corrected by Daymet than Livneh. Overall, these results demonstrate that multiple factors, including downscaling techniques and reference observations, can substantially influence the outcome of downscaled climate projections and stress the need for a comprehensive understanding of such method‐based uncertainties.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Comparative Study of Differentially Private Data Synthesis Methods

When sharing data among researchers or releasing data for public use, there is a risk of exposing sensitive information of individuals in the data set. Data synthesis is a statistical disclosure limitation technique for releasing synthetic data sets with pseudo individual records. Traditional data synthesis techniques often rely on strong assumptions of a data intruder’s behaviors and background knowledge to assess disclosure risk. Differential privacy (DP) formulates a theoretical approach for a strong and robust privacy guarantee in data release without having to model intruders’ behaviors. Efforts have been made aiming to incorporate the DP concept in the data synthesis process. Here, we examine current DIfferentially Private Data Synthesis (DIPS) techniques for releasing individual-level surrogate data for the original data, compare the techniques conceptually and evaluate the statistical utility and inferential properties of the synthetic data via each DIPS technique through extensive simulation studies. Our work sheds light on the practical feasibility and utility of the various DIPS approaches, and suggests future research directions for DIPS.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Field Penetration in a Rectangular Box Using Numerical Techniques: An Effort to Obtain Statistical Shielding Effectiveness

This paper emphasizes the application of numerical methods to explore the ideas related to shielding effectiveness from a statistical view. An empty rectangular box is examined using a hybrid modal/moment method. The basic computational method is presented followed by the results for single- and multiple observation points within the over-moded empty structure. The statistics of the field are obtained by using frequency stirring, borrowed from the ideas connected with reverberation chamber techniques, and extends the ideas of shielding effectiveness well into the multiple resonance regions. The study presented in this paper will address the average shielding effectiveness over a broad spatial sample within the enclosure as the frequency is varied.

Bunting, Charles F.↗

Power flow as a complement to statistical energy analysis and finite element analysis

Present methods of analysis of the structural response and the structure-borne transmission of vibrational energy use either finite element (FE) techniques or statistical energy analysis (SEA) methods. The FE methods are a very useful tool at low frequencies where the number of resonances involved in the analysis is rather small. On the other hand SEA methods can predict with acceptable accuracy the response and energy transmission between coupled structures at relatively high frequencies where the structural modal density is high and a statistical approach is the appropriate solution. In the mid-frequency range, a relatively large number of resonances exist which make finite element method too costly. On the other hand SEA methods can only predict an average level form. In this mid-frequency range a possible alternative is to use power flow techniques, where the input and flow of vibrational energy to excited and coupled structural components can be expressed in terms of input and transfer mobilities. This power flow technique can be extended from low to high frequencies and this can be integrated with established FE models at low frequencies and SEA models at high frequencies to form a verification of the method. This method of structural analysis using power flo and mobility methods, and its integration with SEA and FE analysis is applied to the case of two thin beams joined together at right angles.

Cuschieri, J. M.↗

Comparison of transform coding methods with an optimal predictor for the data compression of digital elevation models

Statistical encoding techniques enable the reduction of the number of bits required to encode a set of symbols, and are derived from their probabilities. Huffman encoding is an example of statistical encoding that has been used for error-free data compression. The degree of compression given by Huffman encoding in this application can be improved by the use of prediction methods. These replace the set of elevations by a set of corrections that have a more advantageous probability distribution. In particular, the method of Lagrange Multipliers for minimization of the mean square error has been applied to local geometrical predictors. Using this technique, an 8-point predictor achieved about a 7 percent improvement over an existing simple triangular predictor.

Lewis, Michael↗

Remote sensing of atmospheric water vapor, liquid water and wind speed at the ocean surface by passive microwave techniques from the Nimbus-5 satellite

The microwave brightness temperature measurements for Nimbus-5 electrically scanned microwave radiometer and Nimbus E microwave spectrometer are used to retrieve the atmospheric water vapor, liquid water and wind speed by a quasi-statistical retrieval technique. It is shown that the brightness temperature can be utilized to yield these parameters under various weather conditions. Observations at 19.35 GHz, 22.235 GHz and 31.4 GHz were input to the regression equations. The retrieved values of these parameters for portions of two Nimbus-5 orbits are presented. Then comparison between the retrieved parameters and the available observations on the total water vapor content and the surface wind speed are made. The estimated errors for retrieval are approximately 0.15 g/sq cm for water vapor content, 6.5 mg/sq cm for liquid water content and 6.6 m/sec for surface wind speed.

Chang, A. T. C.↗

Linear statistical analysis of maneuver optimization techniques

It is shown how a method for maneuver design during the Jovian satellite tour phase of the Galileo mission requires a full-scale redesign of the tour at each maneuver. Software was developed to provide insight into the statistical properties of this process; it is based on the use of linear perturbations to provide trajectory propagation and a least squares representation of the optimization. The result is a Monte Carlo program, making it possible to evaluate the proposed strategy.

Maize, Earl H.↗

A passive microwave technique for estimating rainfall and vertical structure information from space. Part 1: Algorithm description

This paper describes a multichannel physical approach for retrieving rainfall and vertical structure information from satellite-based passive microwave observations. The algorithm makes use of statistical inversion techniques based upon theoretically calculated relations between rainfall rates and brightness temperatures. Potential errors introduced into the theoretical calculations by the unknown vertical distribution of hydrometeors are overcome by explicity accounting for diverse hydrometeor profiles. This is accomplished by allowing for a number of different vertical distributions in the theoretical brightness temperature calculations and requiring consistency between the observed and calculated brightness temperatures. This paper will focus primarily on the theoretical aspects of the retrieval algorithm, which includes a procedure used to account for inhomogeneities of the rainfall within the satellite field of view as well as a detailed description of the algorithm as it is applied over both ocean and land surfaces. The residual error between observed and calculated brightness temperatures is found to be an important quantity in assessing the uniqueness of the solution. It is further found that the residual error is a meaningful quantity that can be used to derive expected accuracies from this retrieval technique. Examples comparing the retrieved results as well as the detailed analysis of the algorithm performance under various circumstances are the subject of a companion paper.

Kummerow, Christian↗

Monte Carlo simulation of an expanding gas

By application of simple computer graphics techniques, the statistical performance of two Monte Carlo methods used in the simulation of rarefied gas flows are assessed. Specifically, two direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) methods developed by Bird and Nanbu are considered. The graphics techniques are found to be of great benefit in the reduction and interpretation of the large volume of data generated, thus enabling important conclusions to be drawn about the simulation results. Hence, it is discovered that the method of Nanbu suffers from increased statistical fluctuations, thereby prohibiting its use in the solution of practical problems.

Boyd, Iain D.↗

Remote sensing of atmospheric water vapor, liquid water, and wind speed at the ocean surface by passive microwave techniques from the Nimbus 5 satellite

The microwave brightness temperature measurements for Nimbus 5 electrically scanned microwave radiometer (ESMR) and Nimbus-E microwave spectrometer (NEMS) are used to retrieve the atmospheric water vapor, liquid water, and wind speed by a quasi-statistical retrieval technique. It is shown that the brightness temperature can be utilized to yield these parameters under various weather conditions. Observations at 19.35, 22.235, and 31.4 GHz were input to the regression equations. The retrieved values of these parameters for portions of two Nimbus 5 orbits are presented. Then comparison between the retrieved parameters and the available observations on the total water vapor content and the surface wind speed are made.

Chang, A. T. C.↗

Rule groupings in expert systems using nearest neighbour decision rules, and convex hulls

Expert System shells are lacking in many areas of software engineering. Large rule based systems are not semantically comprehensible, difficult to debug, and impossible to modify or validate. Partitioning a set of rules found in CLIPS (C Language Integrated Production System) into groups of rules which reflect the underlying semantic subdomains of the problem, will address adequately the concerns stated above. Techniques are introduced to structure a CLIPS rule base into groups of rules that inherently have common semantic information. The concepts involved are imported from the field of A.I., Pattern Recognition, and Statistical Inference. Techniques focus on the areas of feature selection, classification, and a criteria of how 'good' the classification technique is, based on Bayesian Decision Theory. A variety of distance metrics are discussed for measuring the 'closeness' of CLIPS rules and various Nearest Neighbor classification algorithms are described based on the above metric.

Anastasiadis, Stergios↗