Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “statistical analytics”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 325 records · Page 18

Quantifying uncertainty in analysis of shockless dynamic compression experiments on platinum. II. Bayesian model calibration

Dynamic shockless compression experiments provide the ability to explore material behavior at extreme pressures but relatively low temperatures. Typically, the data from these types of experiments are interpreted through an analytic method called Lagrangian analysis. Here, in this work, alternative analysis methods are explored using modern statistical methods. Specifically, Bayesian model calibration is applied to a new set of platinum data shocklessly compressed to 570 GPa. Several platinum equation-of-state models are evaluated, including traditional parametric forms as well as a novel non-parametric model concept. The results are compared to those in Paper I obtained by inverse Lagrangian analysis. The comparisons suggest that Bayesian calibration is not only a viable framework for precise quantification of the compression path, but also reveals insights pertaining to trade-offs surrounding model form selection, sensitivities of the relevant experimental uncertainties, and assumptions and limitations within Lagrangian analysis. The non-parametric model method, in particular, is found to give precise unbiased results and is expected to be useful over a wide range of applications. The calibration results in estimates of the platinum principal isentrope over the full range of experimental pressures to a standard error of 1.6%, which extends the results from Paper I while maintaining the high precision required for the platinum pressure standard.

Brown, Justin Lee↗

Descriptors of water aggregation

For this work, we rely on a total of 23 (cluster size, 8 structural, and 14 connectivity) descriptors to investigate structural patterns and connectivity motifs associated with water cluster aggregation. In addition to the cluster size n (number of molecules), the 8 structural descriptors can be further categorized into (i) one-body (intramolecular): covalent OH bond length (r OH ) and HOH bond angle (θ HOH ), (ii) two-body: OO distance (r OO ), OHO angle (θ OHO ), and HOOX dihedral angle ($\phi$ HOOX ), where X lies on the bisector of the HOH angle, (iii) three-body: OOO angle (θ OOO ), and (iv) many-body: modified tetrahedral order parameter (q) to account for two-, three-, four-, five-coordinated molecules (q m , m = 2, 3, 4, 5) and radius of gyration (R g ). The 14 connectivity descriptors are all many-body in nature and consist of the AD, AAD, ADD, AADD, AAAD, AAADD adjacencies [number of hydrogen bonds accepted (A) and donated (D) by each water molecule], Wiener index, Average Shortest Path Length, hydrogen bond saturation (% HB), and number of non-short-circuited three-membered cycles, four-membered cycles, five-membered cycles, six-membered cycles, and seven-membered cycles. We mined a previously reported database of 4 948 959 water cluster minima for (H 2 O) n , n = 3–25 to analyze the evolution and correlation of these descriptors for the clusters within 5 kcal/mol of the putative minima. It was found that r OH and % HB correlated strongly with cluster size n, which was identified as the strongest predictor of energetic stability. Marked changes in the adjacencies and cycle count were observed, lending insight into changes in the hydrogen bond network upon aggregation. A Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was employed to identify descriptor dependencies and group clusters into specific structural patterns across different cluster sizes. The results of this study inform our understanding of how water clusters evolve in size and what appropriate descriptors of their structural and connectivity patterns are with respect to system size, stability, and similarity. The approach described in this study is general and can be easily extended to other hydrogen-bonded systems.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Generating mock galaxy catalogues for flux-limited samples like the DESI Bright Galaxy Survey

ABSTRACT Accurate mock galaxy catalogues are crucial to validate analysis pipelines used to constrain dark energy models. We present a fast HOD-fitting method which we apply to the AbacusSummit simulations to create a set of mock catalogues for the DESI Bright Galaxy Survey, which contain r-band magnitudes and $(g-r)$ colours. The halo tabulation method fits HODs for different absolute magnitude threshold samples simultaneously, preventing unphysical HOD crossing between samples. We validate the HOD fitting procedure by fitting to real-space clustering measurements and galaxy number densities from the MXXL BGS mock, which was tuned to the SDSS and GAMA surveys. The best-fitting clustering measurements and number densities are mostly within the assumed errors, but the clustering for the faint samples is low on large scales. The best-fitting HOD parameters are robust when fitting to simulations with different realizations of the initial conditions. When varying the cosmology, trends are seen as a function of each cosmological parameter. We use the best-fitting HOD parameters to create cubic box and cut sky mocks from the AbacusSummit simulations, in a range of cosmologies. As an illustration, we compare the ${}^{0.1}M_r\lt -20$ sample of galaxies in the mock with BGS measurements from the DESI one-percent survey. We find good agreement in the number densities, and the projected correlation function is reasonable, with differences that can be improved in the future by fitting directly to BGS clustering measurements. The cubic box and cut-sky mocks in different cosmologies are made publicly available.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Phase Diagram of a Deep Potential Water Model

Using the Deep Potential methodology, we construct a model that reproduces accurately the potential energy surface of the SCAN approximation of density functional theory for water, from low temperature and pressure to about 2400 K and 50 GPa, excluding the vapor stability region. The computational efficiency of the model makes it possible to predict its phase diagram using molecular dynamics. Satisfactory overall agreement with experimental results is obtained. Here, the fluid phases, molecular and ionic, and all the stable ice polymorphs, ordered and disordered, are predicted correctly, with the exception of ice III and XV that are stable in experiments, but metastable in the model. The evolution of the atomic dynamics upon heating, as ice VII transforms first into ice VII" and then into an ionic fluid, reveals that molecular dissociation and breaking of the ice rules coexist with strong covalent fluctuations, explaining why only partial ionization was inferred in experiments.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Third integer resonant extraction transit time simulation studies

In this work, we present the investigation of transit time of particles in the non-linear third-integer resonant extraction process. Transit time is defined as the number of turns a particle takes to get extracted once it is in the unstable region in the phase space, i.e., outside the triangular separatrix in case of third-integer resonance. The study of transit time is important because transit time directly contributes to the beam response time during resonant extraction and thus knowing it apriori would be practically useful in designing of the extraction system. In this work, we shall investigate the analytical derivation of the transit time of particles (to the first order Kobayashi Hamiltonian) in different parts of the phase space distribution and compare against the analytical results. We also compare the simulation result of the transit time of particles (with higher statistics) for the static as well as dynamic extraction conditions cases, particularly in the context of resonant extraction parameters for Mu2e experiment at Fermilab.

Narayanan, Aakaash [Fermilab]↗

Third Integer Resonant Extraction Transit Time Simulation Studies

In this work, we present the investigation of transit time of particles in the non-linear third-integer resonant extraction process. Transit time is defined as the number of turns a particle takes to get extracted once it is in the unstable region in the phase space, i.e., outside the triangular separatrix in case of third-integer resonance. The study of transit time is important because transit time directly contributes to the beam response time during resonant extraction and thus knowing it apriori would be practically useful in designing of the extraction system. In this work, we shall investigate the analytical derivation of the transit time of particles (to the first order Kobayashi Hamiltonian) in different parts of the phase space distribution and compare against the analytical results. We also compare the simulation result of the transit time of particles (with higher statistics) for the static as well as dynamic extraction conditions cases, particularly in the context of resonant extraction parameters for Mu2e experiment at Fermilab.

Narayanan, Aakaash [Fermilab] (ORCID:0000000157944↗

Body composition changes in monkeys during long-term exposure to high acceleration fields

Adult male pig-tailed monkeys, weighing 10-14 kg, were subjected to continuous centrifuging stress for 7 months in acceleration fields up to 2.5 g. In vivo analytical techniques were used to evaluate parameters of body composition, body-fluid distribution, and hematology. Statistically significant losses in total body mass, lean body mass, total body water, extracellular water content and interstitial water content proportional to the level of high g were demonstrated.

Pace, N.↗

Creep-rupture reliability analysis

A probabilistic approach to the correlation and extrapolation of creep-rupture data is presented. Time temperature parameters (TTP) are used to correlate the data, and an analytical expression for the master curve is developed. The expression provides a simple model for the statistical distribution of strength and fits neatly into a probabilistic design format. The analysis focuses on the Larson-Miller and on the Manson-Haferd parameters, but it can be applied to any of the TTP's. A method is developed for evaluating material dependent constants for TTP's. It is shown that optimized constants can provide a significant improvement in the correlation of the data, thereby reducing modelling error. Attempts were made to quantify the performance of the proposed method in predicting long term behavior. Uncertainty in predicting long term behavior from short term tests was derived for several sets of data. Examples are presented which illustrate the theory and demonstrate the application of state of the art reliability methods to the design of components under creep.

Peralta-Duran, A.↗

Creep-rupture reliability analysis

A probabilistic approach to the correlation and extrapolation of creep-rupture data is presented. Time temperature parameters (TTP) are used to correlate the data, and an analytical expression for the master curve is developed. The expression provides a simple model for the statistical distribution of strength and fits neatly into a probabilistic design format. The analysis focuses on the Larson-Miller and on the Manson-Haferd parameters, but it can be applied to any of the TTP's. A method is developed for evaluating material dependent constants for TTP's. It is shown that optimized constants can provide a significant improvement in the correlation of the data, thereby reducing modelling error. Attempts were made to quantify the performance of the proposed method in predicting long term behavior. Uncertainty in predicting long term behavior from short term tests was derived for several sets of data. Examples are presented which illustrate the theory and demonstrate the application of state of the art reliability methods to the design of components under creep.

Peralta-Duran, A.↗

Cosmic-ray modulation, merged interaction regions, and multifractals

The large-scale heliospheric magnetic field fluctuations and their effects on cosmic rays are discussed. Voyager 2 observations from 1983.0 to 1989.6 are used as input to the model of Perko and Burlaga (1992) to show that the few largest merged interaction regions (MIRs) provide essential details in the cosmic-ray intensity (CRI) profile. It is demonstrated that the largest MIRs determine the basic structure of the radial gradients of the CRI. It is shown that the magnetic field strength during the period 1983.0-1989.6 does have a multifractal structure, but that there are different multifractal structures in the three intervals 1983.0-1985.0, 1985.0-1987.5, and 1987.5-1989.6. The multifractal structure can be described by simple functions, the multifractal spectra. These analytical descriptions can be used to generate realizations of the heliospheric magnetic field with the same statistical properties as those observed by Voyager 2. Thus, the starting point is provided for realistic global statistical models of the 11-yr variation of the Galactic CRI.

Burlaga, L. F.↗

Deterministic and Statistical Modeling of a New Thermal Breakout Technology for Measuring the Maximum Horizontal In-Situ Stress

The current state-of-the-art technology for in-situ stress measurements involves an integrated approach that combines borehole breakout observations, drilling-induced tensile fractures, and hydraulic fracturing tests (i.e., “mini-fracs”). This methodology has achieved wide application in the oil and gas industry but has several limitations that often prevent successful in-situ stress measurements. One major limitation is that breakouts do not appear in all boreholes and are generally only a natural occurrence that cannot easily be controlled. Because borehole breakouts are used to directly measure the maximum horizontal in-situ stress magnitude, the absence of borehole breakouts presents a major data gap for in-situ stress measurements. In response to this data gap, a new US Department of Energy (US DOE)-sponsored thermal breakout technology that will provide a method for thermally inducing borehole breakouts and allow the consistent measurement of the maximum horizontal stress magnitude is currently in development. This thermal breakout technology involves heating the borehole and increasing the thermoelastic compressive stress in the rock until a breakout develops, which can be directly correlated to the maximum horizontal stress magnitude. The first step in this project was an analytical modeling study of the thermal breakout process. Based on the Kirsch solution (Kirsch 1898), a deterministic and statistical analysis was performed on the pertinent parameters that influence the maximum horizontal stress calculation. As a result of the analysis, the findings indicate that the thermal breakout technology is feasible and provides improved accuracy and/or an enhanced ability to measure the maximum horizontal stress. Future work as part of this US DOE-sponsored project includes additional validation through more detailed numerical modeling, laboratory testing, and field testing of the thermal breakout technology.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Enhancing ZFP: A Statistical Approach to Understanding and Reducing Error Bias in a Lossy Floating-Point Compression Algorithm

The amount of data generated and gathered in scientific simulations and data collection applications is continuously growing, putting mounting pressure on storage and bandwidth concerns. A means of reducing such issues is data compression; but, lossless data compression is typically ineffective when applied to floating-point data. Thus, users tend to apply a lossy data compressor, which allows for small deviations from the original data. It is essential to understand how the error from lossy compression impacts the accuracy of the data analytics. Thus, we must analyze not only the compression properties but the error as well. In this paper, we provide a statistical analysis of the error caused by ZFP compression, a state-of-the-art, lossy compression algorithm explicitly designed for floating-point data. We show that the error is indeed biased and propose simple modifications to the algorithm to neutralize the bias and further reduce the resulting error.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Cyber-Physical System Implementation for Manufacturing With Analytics in the Cloud Layer

Effective and efficient modern manufacturing operations require the acceptance and incorporation of the fourth industrial revolution, also known as Industry 4.0. Traditional shop floors are evolving their production into smart factories. To continue this trend, a specific architecture for the cyber-physical system is required, as well as a systematic approach to automate the application of algorithms and transform the acquired data into useful information. This work makes use of an approach that distinguishes three layers that are part of the existing Industry 4.0 paradigm: edge, fog, and cloud. Each of the layers performs computational operations, transforming the data produced in the smart factory into useful information. Trained or untrained methods for data analytics can be incorporated into the architecture. A case study is presented in which a real-time statistical control process algorithm based on control charts was implemented. The algorithm automatically detects changes in the material being processed in a computerized numerical control (CNC) machine. The algorithm implemented in the proposed architecture yielded short response times. The performance was effective since it automatically adapted to the machining of aluminum and then detected when the material was switched to steel. The data were backed up in a database that would allow traceability to the line of g-code that performed the machining.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

An analytical and experimental investigation of the response of the curved, composite frame/skin specimens

Six-foot diameter, semicircular graphite/epoxy specimens representative of generic aircraft frames were loaded quasi-statistically to determine their load response and failure mechanisms for large deflections that occur in airplanes crashes. These frame/skin specimens consisted of a cylindrical skin section co-cured with a semicircular I-frame. The skin provided the necessary lateral stiffness to keep deformations in the plane of the frame in order to realistically represent deformations as they occur in actual fuselage structures. Various frame laminate stacking sequences and geometries were evaluated by statically loading the specimen until multiple failures occurred. Two analytical methods were compared for modeling the frame/skin specimens: a two-dimensional shell finite element analysis and a one-dimensional, closed-form, curved beam solution derived using an energy method. Flange effectivities were included in the beam analysis to account for the curling phenomenon that occurs in thin flanges of curved beams. Good correlation was obtained between experimental results and the analytical predictions of the linear response of the frames prior to the initial failure. The specimens were found to be useful for evaluating composite frame designs.

Moas, Eduardo↗

Zero-pairing and zero-temperature limits of finite-temperature Hartree-Fock-Bogoliubov theory

Recently, variational Hartree-Fock-Bogoliubov (HFB) mean-field equations were shown to possess a mathematically well-defined zero-pairing limit, independently of the closed- or open-shell character of the system under consideration. This limit is non-trivial for open-shell systems such that HFB theory does {\it not} reduce to the Hartree-Fock (HF) formalism in all cases. The present work extends this analysis to finite-temperature HFB (FTHFB) theory by investigating the behavior of this more general formalism in the combined zero-temperature and zero-pairing limits. The zero-pairing and zero-temperature limits of the FTHFB statistical density operator constrained to carry an arbitrary (integer) number of particles A on average is worked out analytically and realized numerically using a two-nucleon interaction. While the FTHFB density operator reduces to the projector corresponding to a pure HF Slater determinant for closed-shell nuclei, the FTHFB formalism does not reduce to the HF theory in all cases in the zero-temperature and zero-pairing limits, i.e. for open-shell nuclei. However, the fact that a nucleus can be of open-shell character in these joint limits is necessarily the result of some symmetry restrictions. Whenever it is the case, the non-trivial description obtained for open-shell systems is shown to depend on the order with which both limits are taken, i.e. the two limits do not commute for these systems. When the zero-temperature limit is performed first, the FTHFB density operator is demoted to a projector corresponding to a pure state made out of a linear combination of a finite number of Slater determinants with different (even) numbers of particles. When the zero-pairing limit is performed first, the FTHFB density operator remains a statistical mixture of a finite number of Slater determinants with both even and odd particle numbers. While the entropy (pairing density) is zero in the first (second) case, it does not vanish in the second (first) case in spite of the temperature (pairing) tending towards zero. The difference between both limits can have striking consequences for the (thermal) expectation values of observables. For instance, the particle-number variance does not vanish in either case and has limiting values that differ by a factor of two in both cases. In conclusion, while in the textbook situation associated with closed-shell nuclei Hartree-Fock-Bogoliubov (finite-temperature Hartree-Fock) theory reduces to Hartree-Fock theory in the zero-pairing (zero-temperature) limit, the present analysis demonstrates that a non trivial and unexpected limit is obtained for this formalism in open-shell systems. This result sheds a new light on certain aspects of this otherwise very well-studied many-body formalism.

20 ≤ A ≤ 38↗

Determination of Uncertainties for Analytically Derived Material Properties to Be Used in Monte Carlo Based Orion Heatshield Sizing

Ablative materials are often used for spacecraft heatshields to protect underlying structures from the extreme environments associated with atmospheric reentry. NASA's Orion EM-1 capsule has been designed to use a molded Avcoat material system. In order to determine the required heatshield thickness, a Monte Carlo approach to the sizing process was proposed. To perform the Monte Carlo simulation, statistical uncertainties on all material property input parameters were required. Obtaining these values for measured properties is straightforward, however input parameters that are derived analytically have historically used uncertainties based on engineering judgment. A MATLAB program was created to use laboratory generated thermogravimetric analysis (TGA) data to calculate uncertainties on the Arrhenius parameters for molded Avcoat. Uncertainties associated with the normalized ablation rate and pyrolysis gas enthalpy were also generated using a wrapper script and the ACE code. These uncertainties could then be tied directly to measured values of individual elemental constituents. The resulting uncertainty values will allow for a probabilistic sizing approach on molded Avcoat with a higher level of confidence in the input parameters.

material property uncertainties↗

Enantioselective Intramolecular Allylic Substitution via Synergistic Palladium/Chiral Phosphoric Acid Catalysis: Insight into Stereoinduction through Statistical Modeling

The mode of asymmetric induction in an enantioselective intramolecular allylic substitution reaction catalyzed by a combination of palladium and a chiral phosphoric acid was investigated by a combined experimental and statistical modeling approach. Experiments to probe nonlinear effects, the reactivity of deuterium-labeled substrates, and control experiments revealed that nucleophilic attack to the π-allylpalladium intermediate is the enantio-determining step, in which the chiral phosphate anion is involved in stereoinduction. Here, using multivariable linear regression analysis, we determined that multiple noncovalent interactions with the chiral environment of the phosphate anion are integral to enantiocontrol in the transition state. The synthetic protocol to form chiral pyrrolidines was further applied to the asymmetric construction of C-O bonds at fully substituted carbon centers in the synthesis of chiral 2,2-disubstituted benzomorpholines.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Translation and rotation equivariant normalizing flow (TRENF) for optimal cosmological analysis

ABSTRACT Our Universe is homogeneous and isotropic, and its perturbations obey translation and rotation symmetry. In this work, we develop translation and rotation equivariant normalizing flow (TRENF), a generative normalizing flow (NF) model which explicitly incorporates these symmetries, defining the data likelihood via a sequence of Fourier space-based convolutions and pixel-wise non-linear transforms. TRENF gives direct access to the high dimensional data likelihood p(x|y) as a function of the labels y, such as cosmological parameters. In contrast to traditional analyses based on summary statistics, the NF approach has no loss of information since it preserves the full dimensionality of the data. On Gaussian random fields, the TRENF likelihood agrees well with the analytical expression and saturates the Fisher information content in the labels y. On non-linear cosmological overdensity fields from N-body simulations, TRENF leads to significant improvements in constraining power over the standard power spectrum summary statistic. TRENF is also a generative model of the data, and we show that TRENF samples agree well with the N-body simulations it trained on, and that the inverse mapping of the data agrees well with a Gaussian white noise both visually and on various summary statistics: when this is perfectly achieved the resulting p(x|y) likelihood analysis becomes optimal. Finally, we develop a generalization of this model that can handle effects that break the symmetry of the data, such as the survey mask, which enables likelihood analysis on data without periodic boundaries.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗