Data-Driven Closure Modeling in Sparsely Observed Dynamical Systems
Our collaborators at Texas A&M will be presenting this work.
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Our collaborators at Texas A&M will be presenting this work.
This study aims to quantify rare earth element enrichment within coal and coal-adjacent strata in the Uinta Region of central Utah and western Colorado. Rare earth elements are a subset of critical minerals as defined by the U.S. Geological Survey. These elements are used for a wide variety of applications, including renewable energy technology in the transition toward carbon-neutral energy. While rare earth element enrichment has been associated with Appalachian coals, there has been a more limited evaluation of western U.S. coals. Here, samples from six active mines, four idle/historical mines, four mine waste piles, and seven stratigraphically complete cores within the Uinta Region were geochemically evaluated using portable X-ray fluorescence ( n = 3,113) and inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry ( n = 145) elemental analytical methods. Results suggest that 24%–45% of stratigraphically coal-adjacent carbonaceous shale and siltstone units show rare earth element enrichment (>200 ppm), as do 100% of sampled igneous material. A small subset (5%–8%) of coal samples display rare earth element enrichment, specifically in cases containing volcanic ash. This study proposes two multi-step depositional and diagenetic models to explain the enrichment process, requiring the emplacement and mobilization of rare earth element source material due to hydrothermal and other external influences. Historical geochemical evaluations of Uinta Region coal and coal-adjacent data are sparse, emphasizing the statistical significance of this research. These results support the utilization of active mines and coal processing waste piles for the future of domestic rare earth element extraction, offering economic and environmental solutions to pressing global demands.
Changes in extreme precipitation events may require revisions of civil engineering standards to prevent water infrastructures from performing below the designated guidelines. Climate change may invalidate the intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) computation that is based on the assumption of data stationarity. Efforts in evaluating non-stationarity in the annual maxima series are inadequate, mostly due to the lack of long data records and convenient methods for detecting trends in the higher moments. In this study, using downscaled high resolution climate simulations of the historical and future periods under different carbon emission scenarios, we tested two solutions to obtain reliable IDFs under non-stationarity: (1) identify quasi-stationary time windows from the time series of interest to compute the IDF curves using data for the corresponding time windows; (2) introduce a parameter representing the trend in the means of the extreme value distributions. Focusing on a mountainous site, the Walker Watershed, the spatial heterogeneity and variability of IDFs or extremes are evaluated, particularly in terms of the terrain and elevation impacts. We compared observations-based IDFs that use the stationarity assumption with the two approaches that consider non-stationarity. The IDFs directly estimated based on the traditional stationarity assumption may underestimate the 100-year 24-h events by 10% to 60% towards the end of the century at most grids, resulting in significant under-designing of the engineering infrastructure at the study site. Strong spatial heterogeneity and variability in the IDF estimates suggest a preference for using high resolution simulation data for the reliable estimation of exceedance probability over data from sparsely distributed weather stations. Discrepancies among the three IDFs analyses due to non-stationarity are comparable to the spatial variability of the IDFs, underscoring a need to use an ensemble of non-stationary approaches to achieve unbiased and comprehensive IDF estimates.
Abstract. We present a framework for estimating concentrations of episodically elevated high-temperature marine ice nucleating particles (INPs) in the sea surface microlayer and their subsequent emission into the atmospheric boundary layer. These episodic INPs have been observed in multiple ship-based and coastal field campaigns, but the processes controlling their ocean concentrations and transfer to the atmosphere are not yet fully understood. We use a combination of empirical constraints and simulation outputs from an Earth system model to explore different hypotheses for explaining the variability of INP concentrations, and the occurrence of episodic INPs, in the marine atmosphere. In our calculations, we examine the following two proposed oceanic sources of high-temperature INPs: heterotrophic bacteria and marine biopolymer aggregates (MBPAs). Furthermore, we assume that the emission of these INPs is determined by the production of supermicron sea spray aerosol formed from jet drops, with an entrainment probability that is described by Poisson statistics. The concentration of jet drops is derived from the number concentration of supermicron sea spray aerosol calculated from model runs. We then derive the resulting number concentrations of marine high-temperature INPs (at 253 K) in the atmospheric boundary layer and compare their variability to atmospheric observations of INP variability. Specifically, we compare against concentrations of episodically occurring high-temperature INPs observed during field campaigns in the Southern Ocean, the Equatorial Pacific, and the North Atlantic. In this case study, we evaluate our framework at 253 K because reliable observational data at this temperature are available across three different ocean regions, but suitable data are sparse at higher temperatures. We find that heterotrophic bacteria and MBPAs acting as INPs provide only a partial explanation for the observed high INP concentrations. We note, however, that there are still substantial knowledge gaps, particularly concerning the identity of the oceanic INPs contributing most frequently to episodic high-temperature INPs, their specific ice nucleation activity, and the enrichment of their concentrations during the sea–air transfer process. Therefore, targeted measurements investigating the composition of these marine INPs and drivers for their emissions are needed, ideally in combination with modeling studies focused on the potential cloud impacts of these high-temperature INPs.
We investigate the use of sparse matrices and OpenMP multi-threading on linear algebra operations involving them. Several sparse matrix data structures are presented. Implementation of the multi- threading primarily occurs in the level one and two BLAS functions used within the four algorithms investigated{the Power Method, Conjugate Gradient, Biconjugate Gradient, and Jacobi's Method. The bene ts of launching threads once per high level algorithm are explored.
E asymmetries have been extracted from double-polarizationexperiments in Hall-B of the Thomas Jefferson National Accelerator Facility (JLab). Results have been obtained from the E06-101 (g14) experiment, using circularly polarized photon beams, longitudinally polarized Deuterons in solid HD targets, and the CEBAF Large Acceptance Spectrometer (CLAS). The results cover a range inW from 1.48 to 2.32 GeV. Three independent analyses, using distinctly different methods, have been combined to obtain the final values, which have been published recently. Partial wave analyses (PWA), which have had to rely on a sparse neutron data base, havebeen significantly changed with the inclusion of these g14 asymmetries.
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Due to the nature of sCO2 power cycles, a number of turbine parts must have good mechanical properties at elevated temperatures. For recompression cycles, the turbine inlet temperature is between 600°C - 750°C, which puts nearly all high-temperature turbine parts into a creep regime. The high-strength parts in these applications are often composed of materials having high nickel or chrome contents, and are often termed superalloys. At these temperatures, the blades must survive mechanical loads due to centrifugal stress and blade loading. While centrifugal stress is primarily a function of tip velocity and its associated centrifugal acceleration, blade loading is a function of power density. Since sCO2 turbomachinery is approaching the power density of rocket engines, blade loading tends to be quite large. Another result of this high power density is that blade passages for 1-10 MW turbines tend to be quite small, making conventional fabrication methods challenging and costly; this leads engineers to pioneer new techniques to address these challenges. The authors of the current work are addressing this challenge by applying additive manufacturing techniques in the production of a 10 MW radial inflow impeller. While a comprehensive database exists for the mechanical properties of forged and cast superalloys, data is sparse for superalloys fashioned by direct metal laser sintering (DMLS) or other additive manufacturing methods. For the remainder of this work, the term printed will refer to components manufactured using one of these processes for brevity. The current work stems from the desire to manufacture a radial inflow turbine impeller using additive manufactured (AM) Inconel 738. While Siemens has adopted the use of DMLS printed Inconel 738 for use in select aviation engine parts, creep and tensile properties have not been published to the extent needed to validate a given design. The current work will show creep and tensile properties of AM Inconel 738 in the horizontal and vertical build directions and their respective comparison to cast Inconel 738 properties.
Several sparse-sample uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods are compared for conservative but not overly conservative estimation of small tail probabilities involving responses that lay beyond specified thresholds in the tails of probability distributions. Sixteen very differently shaped distributions (or probability density functions, PDFs) and tail probability magnitudes ranging from 10 -5 to 10 -1 are considered in order for the study to be relevant to a wide range of risk analysis and quantification of margins and uncertainty (QMU) problems. The emphasis of the study is on limited data regimes ranging from N = 2 to 20 samples, reflective of most experimental and some expensive computational situations. Relatively simple sparse-sample UQ methods tested for this regime involve statistical tolerance interval "Equivalent Normal and related "Ensemble of Normals" and "Superdistribution (SD) approaches. (The independently derived SD is effectively equivalent to the Bayesian posterior predictive distribution given the assumptions of the derivation.) The performance of the methods was generally improved for N ≥ 5 samples with a generalized Jackknife resampling technique, which determines a tail probability estimate by averaging estimates from smaller sub-samples. Several quantitative metrics for method conservatism and accuracy of tail probability estimation are used to assess and rank the methods' performance over many random trials for each test PDF and probability magnitude. A variant of Bootstrap resampling was also tried, but did not significantly improve tail probability estimates in most cases. Detailed results are presented from over 100-million tests over the above factors that provide useful granular information on which methods or combination of methods perform best in various areas of the factor space.
The subsurface geology beneath the Pajarito Plateau is critical to understanding the seismic hazard of the Pajarito Fault System, yet our understanding of this geology is relatively poor. While previous 3D geologic framework models of the area have been created for the purposes of understanding hydrogeologic flow, they are inadequate for the purposes of understanding the Pajarito Fault System. The specific challenges of using oil and gas software for this purpose include: (1) the geologic complexities resulting from volcanism and tectonism; (2) a need for a high level of stratigraphic detail over a large area; (3) a near complete lack of seismic data; and (4) sparse wellbore data. Presented here is a workflow that handles these challenges of adapting commercially available software used by the oil and gas industries to this seismic hazard problem.
The de Saint-Venant equation (SVE) and advection–diffusion equation (ADE) are commonly employed to solve solute transport problems in surface water. In this work, we propose a mesh-free method based on the physics-informed neural network (PINN) to solve the one dimensional (1-D) SVE, ADE, and the coupled SVE and ADE (SVE-ADE) under various initial and boundary conditions. The PINN model extends the architecture of deep neural networks (DNNs) with implementation of loss function, which are additionally subject to constraints imposed by the physical laws of SVE and ADE, along with their initial and boundary conditions. In such a manner, PINNs can be quickly steered to the true solution while obeying the physical laws. The results of PINN model are compared with the analytical and/or numerical solutions under various conditions to investigate its accuracy and efficiency in solving the SVE, ADE, and SVE-ADE. Our results indicate PINN can accurately simulate the shock wave morphology and avoid numerical dissipation in unsteady flow condition. The PINN method outweighed traditional numerical methods in several aspects, including its ability to function with small amounts of data, no grid discretization, and random selection of sampling points, etc. Additionally, the PINN method is also suitable for solving inverse problems with sparse and noisy data. With 1% noise and 2000 initial and boundary condition points (N u ), the errors of the estimated flow rate (v) and diffusion coefficient (D) are 0.003% and 0.105%, respectively, which indicate the accuracy and robustness of the proposed method. Finally, our results indicate the capability and robustness of the proposed PINN methodology for solving multi-physics problems, irrespective of the presence of sparse and noisy data in the training dataset.
There is strong observational evidence that the convective cores of intermediate-mass and massive main sequence stars are substantially larger than those predicted by standard stellar-evolution models. However, it is unclear what physical processes cause this phenomenon or how to predict the extent and stratification of stellar convective boundary layers. Convective penetration is a thermal-timescale process that is likely to be particularly relevant during the slow evolution on the main sequence. We use our low-Mach-number S EVEN -L EAGUE H YDRO code to study this process in 2.5D and 3D geometries. Starting with a chemically homogeneous model of a 15 M ⊙ zero-age main sequence star, we construct a series of simulations with the luminosity increased and opacity decreased by the same factor, ranging from 10 3 to 10 6 . After reaching thermal equilibrium, all of our models show a clear penetration layer; its thickness becomes statistically constant in time and it is shown to converge upon grid refinement. The penetration layer becomes nearly adiabatic with a steep transition to a radiative stratification in simulations at the lower end of our luminosity range. This structure corresponds to the adiabatic ‘step overshoot’ model often employed in stellar-evolution calculations. The simulations with the highest and lowest luminosity differ by less than a factor of two in the penetration distance. The high computational cost of 3D simulations makes our current 3D data set rather sparse. Depending on how we extrapolate the 3D data to the actual luminosity of the initial stellar model, we obtain penetration distances ranging from 0.09 to 0.44 pressure scale heights, which is broadly compatible with observations.
Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) are powerful and flexible neural networks that use the naturally sparse connectivity information of the data. GNNs represent this connectivity as sparse matrices, which have lower arithmetic intensity and thus higher communication costs compared to dense matrices, making GNNs harder to scale to high concurrencies than convolutional or fully-connected neural networks. Here, we introduce a family of parallel algorithms for training GNNs and show that they can asymptotically reduce communication compared to previous parallel GNN training methods. We implement these algorithms, which are based on 1D, 1. 5D, 2D, and 3D sparse-dense matrix multiplication, using torch.distributed on GPU-equipped clusters. Our algorithms optimize communication across the full GNN training pipeline. We train GNNs on over a hundred GPUs on multiple datasets, including a protein network with over a billion edges.
A sparse file is stored without holes by storing a data portion of the sparse file using a parallel log-structured file system; and generating an index entry for the data portion, the index entry comprising a logical offset, physical offset and length of the data portion. The holes can be restored to the sparse file upon a reading of the sparse file. The data portion can be stored at a logical end of the sparse file. Additional storage efficiency can optionally be achieved by (i) detecting a write pattern for a plurality of the data portions and generating a single patterned index entry for the plurality of the patterned data portions; and/or (ii) storing the patterned index entries for a plurality of the sparse files in a single directory, wherein each entry in the single directory comprises an identifier of a corresponding sparse file.
Transient simulation in circuit simulation tools, such as SPICE and Xyce, depend on scalable and robust sparse LU factorizations for efficient numerical simulation of circuits and power grids. As the need for simulations of very large circuits grow, the prevalence of multicore architectures enable us to use shared memory parallel algorithms for such simulations. A parallel factorization is a critical component of such shared memory parallel simulations. We develop a parallel sparse factorization algorithm that can solve problems from circuit simulations efficiently, and map well to architectural features. This new factorization algorithm exposes hierarchical parallelism to accommodate irregular structure that arise in our target problems. It also uses a hierarchical two-dimensional data layout which reduces synchronization costs and maps to memory hierarchy found in multicore processors. We present an OpenMP based implementation of the parallel algorithm in a new multithreaded solver called Basker in the Trilinos framework. Here, we present performance evaluations of Basker on the Intel SandyBridge and Xeon Phi platforms using circuit and power grid matrices taken from the University of Florida sparse matrix collection and from Xyce circuit simulation. Basker achieves a geometric mean speedup of 5.91× on CPU (16 cores) and 7.4× on Xeon Phi (32 cores) relative to state-of-the-art solver KLU. Basker outperforms Intel MKL Pardiso solver (PMKL) by as much as 30× on CPU (16 cores) and 7.5× on Xeon Phi (32 cores) for low fill-in circuit matrices. Furthermore, Basker provides 5.4× speedup on a challenging matrix sequence taken from an actual Xyce simulation.
Obtaining a license for a new nuclear reactor requires the identification and assessment of the potential consequences of specified accident scenarios, which are achieved using accident progression models. Those models need to be parameterized and validated using experimental data, but existing experimental data addressing processes relevant to molten salt reactor accidents are sparse. Specifically, experimental data that quantify the sensitives of important processes to the initial conditions of the spill, the ambient environment, and the containment features are needed to parameterize individual process models. Integrated experiments that simulate accident scenarios are also needed to provide data for model validation, but these experiments will require the use of proven methods to quantify the processes under evaluation. The overarching objectives of this work are to develop the methods for simulating the targeted processes, to determine the effectiveness of the methods in producing the data required for model development, to generate data that can be used to parameterize individual process models, and to provide key insights into the behavior of spilled molten salt that should be considered in models. Experimental methods were designed to quantify aspects of individual processes expected to occur during or after a molten salt spill accident that will affect the fate of spilled molten salt and the radionuclides within. These processes include 1) molten salt spreading and heat transfer, 2) molten salt flowing and freezing in tubing, 3) stainless steel corrosion kinetics in molten salt, and 4) molten salt splashing and aerosol generation. The initial tests described in this report were conducted using eutectic FLiNaK to demonstrate the test methods, the data that are generated, and the analyses of the data to derive values needed for modeling. The primary variables that were tested include initial salt temperature and the presence of volatile surrogate fission products (e.g., cesium and iodine). The developed methods are shown to be effective in quantifying the desired processes and can be applied to study more complex salt compositions of interest to molten salt reactor developers, a wide range of environmental conditions of interest to modelers, and additional variables relevant to salt spill accidents. The developed methods and insights gained from laboratory tests can also be incorporated in future large-scale integrated tests used to simulate molten salt spill accidents.