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At least 325 records · Page 18

Algorithmic and GPU enhancements for molecular dynamics in Cabana and LAMMPS

The focus of this milestone was to implement and test new algorithms and optimizations for improved GPU performance by molecular dynamics (MD) and related particle codes. The work was done in the CoPA Cabana library, the CabanaMD mini-app which uses Cabana to implement and benchmark prototypical MD models, and the LAMMPS MD code which is used by the ECP EXAALT project as well as for materials modeling generally. Efforts included (a) implementation of new or optimized algorithms for fundamental MD kernels like neighbor-list building and FFTs which are also widely used in other particle methods, (b) performance testing of data structure layouts for both simple pairwise and computationally intense neural network potentials, (c) optimizations aimed at improving GPU performance for models with small atom counts, and (d) optimizations specific to the SNAP interatomic potential due to its importance for the EXAALT project.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Emulating ab initio computations of infinite nucleonic matter

We construct efficient emulators for the computation of the infinite nuclear matter equation of state. These emulators are based on the subspace-projected coupled-cluster method for which we here develop a new algorithm called small-batch voting to eliminate spurious states that might appear when emulating quantum many-body methods based on a non-Hermitian Hamiltonian. The efficiency and accuracy of these emulators facilitate a rigorous statistical analysis within which we explore nuclear matter predictions for > 10 6 different parametrizations of a chiral interaction model with explicit Δ -isobars at next-to-next-to leading order. Constrained by nucleon-nucleon scattering phase shifts and bound-state observables of light nuclei up to He 4 , we use history matching to identify nonimplausible domains for the low-energy coupling constants of the chiral interaction. Within these domains we perform a Bayesian analysis using sampling and importance resampling with different likelihood calibrations and study correlations between interaction parameters, calibration observables in light nuclei, and nuclear matter saturation properties. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Axions beyond Gen 2

The QCD (Quantum ChromoDynamics) axion emerged as one of the best-motivated dark matter candidates. In 2018, the Axion Dark Matter eXperiment (ADMX), one of the U.S. Department of Energy’s “Gen 2” flagship dark-matter projects, demonstrated first sensitivity to the highly plausible “DFSZ” dark matter axion couplings over a small frequency range. We anticipate this development marks the first step in constructing yet more powerful experiments that can explore large swaths of the axion parameter space at high sensitivity and result in a discovery. But, realizing this requires advances in both our understanding of the theory and experiment design. Between 25 January and 27 January 2021, the “Axions Beyond Gen 2 Workshop” was held, where selected members of the community discussed our broad understanding of the QCD axion and charted a course for future experiments having sensitivity and mass reach well beyond the current “Gen 2” experiments. These proceedings are summaries of the topics presented and discussed.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Moving Zero Energy Office Buildings to the Mainstream: Establishing Design Guidelines and Energy Targets: Preprint

Office buildings represent a significant portion of the commercial sector and are ideal candidates to lead the market towards achieving zero energy or zero energy ready buildings. The variety of sizes and uses for office buildings make them challenging to determine set design guidance that can be deployed across the market. A project committee for ASHRAE’s Zero Energy - Advanced Energy Design Guide (ZE-AEDG) for small and medium office buildings , comprised of members from five major national associations with market-pull in commercial buildings, created design guidance for achieving zero energy office buildings for new construction and major retrofit. This design guidance focuses on the process, providing a pathway for both office owners and design teams to achieve zero energy status. Energy use intensity targets range from 16 kBtu/ft²·yr to 36 kBtu/ft²·yr for the different climate zones were established such that office buildings can be “zero-ready,” that is, having low energy consumption that can easily be offset with renewables, preferably on-site. The design guidance was rooted in extensive energy modeling, as well as case studies of actual office buildings that have achieved high levels of energy performance and met zero energy or zero energy ready status. A unique aspect of the zero-energy guide is that it is not compared against a baseline but focuses on achieving an absolute target. The paper presents process of creating the targets, the selection of strategies to achieve the targets, and sample case studies that show how the cost-sensitive solutions are achievable for the design community. It also presents outreach strategies to deploy market achievable zero energy measures.

buildings↗

Lessons Learned from the First Year of Property Remediation - 20475

The Port Hope Area Initiative (PHAI) is a federal environmental clean-up program. Its mandate is the remediation and local, long-term, safe management of approximately 1.7 million cubic metres of historic low-level radioactive waste (LLRW) in the adjacent communities of Port Hope and Port Granby in Southern Ontario, Canada. The PHAI is being undertaken by Canadian Nuclear Laboratories (CNL) on behalf of Atomic Energy of Canada Limited, a federal Crown corporation. It is currently one of the largest environmental remediation projects in Canada. The safety of workers, the public and the environment while delivering the PHAI compliantly, on time and within budget is CNL's number one priority. The PHAI is being carried out as two projects - the Port Hope Project and the Port Granby Project. The larger of the two PHAI scopes of work - the Port Hope Project - involves the cleanup of approximately 1.2 million cubic metres of historic LLRW from 18 major sites in Port Hope, the construction of an engineered aboveground mound where the waste will be safely contained and the long-term maintenance and monitoring of the facility. Construction of the waste water treatment plant, the first three of four cells in the mound and supporting infrastructure is complete, with construction of the fourth cell in progress. In 2017 with the movement of on-site waste at this facility began and is now complete. Waste excavation and transportation from off-site locations within the community began in 2018; the cleanup of four temporary storage sites is now complete and remediation at several other major sites is underway. The Port Hope Project also includes a survey of the interior and exterior investigation of approximately 4,800 properties, primarily residential, in the urban area of Port Hope for the presence or absence of historic LLRW. The current projection is that approximately 1,250 privately owned residential and commercial properties known as Small-Scale Sites (SSS) will be identified as having waste exceeding the PHAI clean-up criteria. This paper will outline some of the challenges and lessons learned from the first year of SSS remediation including contractual, data and design issues; interaction with and managing expectations of stakeholders; weather, site and structure conditions as well as municipal permitting, resourcing, transportation and remediation verification. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

2022 Annual Report Laboratory Directed Research & Development

Idaho National Laboratory’s (INL’s) mission is “to discover, demonstrate and secure innovative nuclear energy solutions, other clean energy options and critical infrastructure.” INL executes this mission through research and development across the continuum from basic science to applied science to engineering demonstration and then deployment. The Department of Energy (DOE) Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) program enables INL to conduct high-risk, impactful research that enriches the laboratory capabilities in order to further its missions. INL’s LDRD portfolio specifically advances the core capabilities of the laboratory aligned with its five science and technology initiatives: 1) nuclear reactor sustainment and expanded deployment, 2) integrated fuel cycle solutions, 3) integrated energy systems, 4) advanced design and manufacturing for extreme environments, and 5) secure and resilient cyber-physical systems. The 45 projects that ended in fiscal year 2022 and highlighted in this report are just a small sample of the impressive breadth and depth of cutting-edge science, technology, and engineering ongoing at INL.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Small-Scale Drying: FY2020 Interim Report

This report documents the interim experimental status of small-scale drying tests currently being performed at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. These small-scale drying tests are to develop the technical bases for sensors, techniques, and approaches that will be used to address the challenges faced when determining moisture content from gas samples taken at the North Anna Nuclear Generating Station for the High Burnup Demonstration Project. Specifically, the purpose of these tests is to support Sandia National Laboratories gas sample methods and analyses through a series of small-scale experiments. Key focus areas include performing tests to: • Correlate sample bottle measurements to in-cask conditions • Estimate the amount of trapped and absorbed water on cask features and surfaces that can contribute to water vapor • Assess the accuracy of the hygrometer used in the measurements under similar conditions • Identify additional methods for measuring humidity in casks easily and accurately using lessons-learned from Sandia National Laboratories, including direct gravimetric and isotopic tracer techniques. To address these topics this report outlines a series of five tests and any data collected to date that were planned for FY 2020 that include 1) humidity measurement method development, 2) gas bottle sampling tests, 3) surface drying tests on cladding, 4) small-scale drying of cladding, and 5) small-scale drying of guide-tube/dashpots. This interim report documents the experimental background, design and progress of these small-scale drying tests. Further data gathered will be summarized in the FY 2021 report.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Chaconne: A Statistical Approach to Nonlocal Compression for Supervised Learning, Semi-Supervised Learning, and Anomaly Detection

This project developed a novel statistical understanding of compression analytics (CA), which has challenged and clarified some core assumptions about CA, and enabled the development of novel techniques that address vital challenges of national security. Specifically, this project has yielded the development of novel capabilities including 1. Principled metrics for model selection in CA, 2. Techniques for deriving/applying optimal classification rules and decision theory to supervised CA, including how to properly handle class imbalance and differing costs of misclassification, 3. Two techniques for handling nonlocal information in CA, 4. A novel technique for unsupervised CA that is agnostic with regard to the underlying compression algorithm, 5. A framework for semisupervised CA when a small number of labels are known in an otherwise large unlabeled dataset. 6. The academic alliance component of this project has focused on the development of a novel exemplar-based Bayesian technique for estimating variable length Markov models (closely related to PPM [prediction by partial matching] compression techniques). We have developed examples illustrating the application of our work to text, video, genetic sequences, and unstructured cybersecurity log files.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

High-Entropy Ceramic Coatings: Transformative New Materials for Environmentally-Compatible Thin-Film Insulators against High-T Molten Salts

An emerging new class of promising materials, High-Entropy Ceramics (HECs) or Compositionally-Complex Ceramics (CCCs), have been successfully fabricated in the last three years. This project evaluates HECs/CCCs in the concentrated solar power (CSP) context. In this project, we have identified a couple of simple, and key descriptors governing thermal conductivity in HECs. Size disorder among the cations was found to have a strong influence on the thermal conductivity across multiple systems and throughout a vast compositional space. Since identifying this, we have optimized previous compositions to achieve low thermal conductivities of $k$~$1-1.4Wm{-1}K{-1}$. We have further reduced our selection of promising compositions based on project guidelines and applied a theory that can potentially predict reactivity with molten salts to identify a small set of HECs that are suitable for further molten salt heat transfer media (HTM) stability testing. Many compositions reveal poor resistance to molten chloride salt after being exposed for 24 h compared to the reference structural alloy, Haynes 230. However, after 100 h, a few HECs/CCCs show strong parabolic rate constant effects and provide greater resistance to chloride salt compared to Haynes 230 alloy, which shows more linear kinetics. Postmortem characterization of the microstructure reveals the parabolic rate constant originates from a dense reaction layer form at the interface. This feature is absent in Haynes 230, which only shows grain boundary infiltration. The HECs/CCCs were also put in contact with the metal alloy under Ar for 800 h at 800°C and show negligible interaction. Lastly, parabolic rate constant HECs/CCCs also have low thermal conductivity $(<2 Wm^{-1} K^{-1})$ at 800°C. These specimens satisfy all project requirements and demonstrate their promising application in next-generation CSP.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Large-Volume Stimulation of Rock for Greatly Enhanced Fluids Recovery using Targeted Seismic-Assisted Hydraulic Fracturing (Final Technical Report)

This project has developed and demonstrated a new technology for large-volume and targeted comminution of rock in low permeability formations to enhance recovery from unconventional oil and gas (UOG) resources. The technology is based on a strategically designed interaction of multiple induced seismic pulses that assist the hydraulic fracturing process to enhance shear and multi-planar crack formation. This greatly increased rock stimulation, through bulk comminution, is expected to cause significant increase in permeability leading to enhancement of recovery factors for sub- surface fluids. The proposed technology is especially applicable for enhanced recovery in emerging UOG plays, such as ductile shales that are resistant to opening-mode fracturing by conventional hydraulic fracturing processes. The project combines an integrated experimental and computation approach to develop and demonstrate a modular technology that can be easily implement in the field to augment current practices. The effort integrates a fundamental scientific understanding of dynamic material response under constraint and damage-induced permeability and porosity enhancements at multiple length scales, along with models of comminution due to the local release of kinetic energy associated with high shear strain rate of dynamic deformation. The results will be validated through small-scale experiments and then implemented in a lab-scale field test to demonstrate the developed technology. The project involves collaboration between a solid mechanician, a materials scientist, and a petroleum engineering geo-mechanician. It builds on a successful history of success and collaboration that includes both fundamental scientific exploration and technology development.

04 OIL SHALES AND TAR SANDS↗

Twisted bilayer graphene. III. Interacting Hamiltonian and exact symmetries

We derive the explicit Hamiltonian of twisted bilayer graphene (TBG) with Coulomb interaction projected into the flat bands and study the symmetries of the Hamiltonian. First, we show that all projected TBG Hamiltonians can be written as positive semidefinite Hamiltonians, an example of which was found in work by Kang and Vafek [Phys. Rev. Lett. 122, 246401 (2019)]. We then prove that the interacting TBG Hamiltonian exhibits an exact U(4) symmetry in the exactly flat band (nonchiral-flat) limit. We further define, besides a first chiral limit where the AA stacking hopping is zero, a second chiral limit where the AB/BA stacking hopping is zero. In the first chiral-flat limit (or second chiral-flat limit) with exactly flat bands, the TBG is enhanced to have an exact U(4) × U(4) symmetry, whose generators are different between the two chiral limits. While in the first chiral limit and in the nonchiral case these symmetries have been found in work by Bultinck et al. [Phys. Rev. X 10, 031034 (2020)], for the eight lowest bands, we here prove that they are valid for projection into any 8 n max particle-hole symmetric TBG bands, with n max > 1 being the practical case for small twist angles < 1°. Furthermore, in the first or second chiral-nonflat limit without flat bands, an exact U(4) symmetry still remains. We also elucidate the link between the U(4) symmetry presented here and the similar but different U(4) of Kang and Vafek [Phys. Rev. Lett. 122, 246401 (2019)]. Additionally, we show that our projected Hamiltonian can be viewed as the normal-ordered Coulomb interaction plus a Hartree-Fock term from passive bands, and exhibits a many-body particle-hole symmetry which renders the physics symmetric around charge neutrality. We also provide an efficient parametrization of the interacting Hamiltonian. The existence of two chiral limits with an enlarged symmetry suggests a possible duality of the model yet undiscovered.

2-dimensional systems↗

A Kaczmarz-inspired approach to accelerate the optimization of neural network wavefunctions

Neural network wavefunctions optimized using the variational Monte Carlo method have been shown to produce highly accurate results for the electronic structure of atoms and small molecules, but the high cost of optimizing such wavefunctions prevents their application to larger systems. We propose the Subsampled Projected-Increment Natural Gradient Descent (SPRING) optimizer to reduce this bottleneck. SPRING combines ideas from the recently introduced minimum-step stochastic reconfiguration optimizer (MinSR) and the classical randomized Kaczmarz method for solving linear least-squares problems. We demonstrate that SPRING outperforms both MinSR and the popular Kronecker-Factored Approximate Curvature method (KFAC) across a number of small atoms and molecules, given that the learning rates of all methods are optimally tuned. For example, on the oxygen atom, SPRING attains chemical accuracy after forty thousand training iterations, whereas both MinSR and KFAC fail to do so even after one hundred thousand iterations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project phase 2 (HighResMIP2) towards CMIP7

Abstract. Robust projections and predictions of climate variability and change, particularly at regional scales, rely on the driving processes being represented with fidelity in model simulations. Consequently, the role of enhanced horizontal resolution in improved process representation in all components of the climate system continues to be of great interest. Recent simulations suggest the possibility of significant changes in both large-scale aspects of the ocean and atmospheric circulations and in the regional responses to climate change, as well as improvements in representations of small-scale processes and extremes, when resolution is enhanced. The first phase of the High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP1) was successful at producing a baseline multi-model assessment of global simulations with model grid spacings of 25–50 km in the atmosphere and 10–25 km in the ocean, a significant increase when compared to models with standard resolutions on the order of 1° that are typically used as part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) experiments. In addition to over 250 peer-reviewed manuscripts using the published HighResMIP1 datasets, the results were widely cited in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report and were the basis of a variety of derived datasets, including tracked cyclones (both tropical and extratropical), river discharge, storm surge, and impact studies. There were also suggestions from the few ocean eddy-rich coupled simulations that aspects of climate variability and change might be significantly influenced by improved process representation in such models. The compromises that HighResMIP1 made should now be revisited, given the recent major advances in modelling and computing resources. Aspects that will be reconsidered include experimental design and simulation length, complexity, and resolution. In addition, larger ensemble sizes and a wider range of future scenarios would enhance the applicability of HighResMIP. Therefore, we propose the High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project phase 2 (HighResMIP2) to improve and extend the previous work, to address new science questions, and to further advance our understanding of the role of horizontal resolution (and hence process representation) in state-of-the-art climate simulations. With further increases in high-performance computing resources and modelling advances, along with the ability to take full advantage of these computational resources, an enhanced investigation of the drivers and consequences of variability and change in both large- and synoptic-scale weather and climate is now possible. With the arrival of global cloud-resolving models (currently run for relatively short timescales), there is also an opportunity to improve links between such models and more traditional CMIP models, with HighResMIP providing a bridge to link understanding between these domains. HighResMIP also aims to link to other CMIP projects and international efforts such as the World Climate Research Program lighthouse activities and various digital twin initiatives. It also has the potential to be used as training and validation data for the fast-evolving machine learning climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Montana Community-Scale Solar Strategy Project (Final Technical Report)

Grid-tied solar photovoltaic (PV) development began gradually in Montana, initially taking root in the early 2000s, largely in the form of small residential systems, rarely larger than two kilowatts. Utility support for solar technology through public benefit funding triggered the installation of the state’s first solar PV installations on community-owned facilities including schools, libraries, fire stations and local government buildings in the mid-2000s. By 2016, solar PV installations totaled approximately 28 megawatts of installed capacity, generating less than 0.05% of electricity sold in Montana. Montana’s solar fleet in 2016 included 17 megawatts of utility-scale solar farms, and three shared solar projects developed by rural electric cooperatives that ranged from 25 to 50 kilowatts in size. However, with only 3,000 households utilizing solar PV, either through an on-site installation or participation in a shared solar project, the potential benefits and reach of solar technology was limited. The Montana Solar Community Project (MSCP) was developed by the Montana Energy Office (MEO) at the Department of Environmental Quality in order to implement a “community-scale” solar energy strategy for the state that would cost-effectively expand Montanans’ access to solar PV. This project defines three types of community-scale solar projects: shared solar, community-sited solar, and group purchasing programs. The MSCP project conducted research and stakeholder engagement that helped to inform and develop model community-scale initiatives and an overarching community-scale solar strategy for Montana. Specifically, the project included a solar market assessment, stakeholder meetings across Montana, development of a menu of community-scale solar options, a study of solar potential on schools, community solar market research, and community-scale project implementation support. MSCP activities were successful in implementing solar projects and supporting solar development in communities across Montana. Project activities realized 280 kW of newly installed solar from two solarize programs, a shared solar array at a rural electric cooperative, and a solar array atop a Bozeman high school. The community-scale project implementation support and Solar on Schools components of the project resulted directly in the analysis and design of nearly 2 MW of distributed solar systems across the state. The Solar on Schools analysis alone produced solar designs for 25 schools, representing 920.8 kW of solar potential. Many of the deliverables from this project provide guidance on future development of community-scale solar in Montana, and resulted in a number of important conclusions about community-scale solar in Montana. There is strong interest in community-scale solar in Montana, as noted during stakeholder meetings, in response to solar market research surveys, and as seen by applications for implementation support grants provided by MEO. Project activities also suggest that Montanans demonstrated a desire and need for more information about solar energy technology, solar financing options, and the state’s policy and regulatory framework. Additionally, the project found that schools will be key partners for future community-scale solar programs. In addition to being excellent hosts for solar arrays, schools have the opportunity to use the installation of a solar array to develop educational materials and curricula to educate Montana’s future leaders about these technologies, which can be shared and replicated across the state. Project activities laid a clear path forward for solar energy in Montana. Certain activities have concrete next steps. For example, numerous solar arrays were designed for schools and other public buildings around the state. Many of those designs will be used as soon as funding becomes available. Other activities have less developed next steps, though lay the foundation for future work. The solar market assessment, solar market research, and community stakeholder meetings are good examples. These documents can be used as stepping stones to increase renewable energy education, increase stakeholder outreach, and support communities as they seek to develop community-scale solar projects.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Boundary Layer Controls on the Shallow-to-Deep Cumulus Transition (Final Technical Report)

This project advanced our understanding of the processes governing cumulus cloud formation and provides an improved observational basis for validating earth system models. To be specific, the project used laser- and radar-remote sensors to examine the physical properties of updrafts that rise from earth’s surface and initiate clouds deeper in the atmosphere. These updrafts comprise “thermals” and “plumes” and occur at small spatial and temporal scales (e.g., 10s of minutes, 100s of meters). These small scales preclude explicit representation in most earth system and climate models, and thus necessitate “sub-grid-scale” parameterization of updraft processes. The innovation of this project was to directly measure the size, shape, strength and water vapor content of these updrafts with Doppler and Raman lidars, respectively, and to link these updraft properties to cloud processes using vertically pointed weather radars. The resulting data sets comprise 100s of thousands of updrafts and thousands of clouds, which far exceeds previous efforts, and thereby provides a robust statistical and physical representation of these processes. From these large datasets the project produced a sequence of scientific analyses that: (1) Elucidate how variations in the turbulent structure of the convective boundary layer control shallow cumulus convection, (2) Quantify the upward transport of water vapor to cloud base via thermals and plumes, (3) Validate large-eddy simulations of updrafts and shallow convective clouds, (4) Demonstrate a size-to-strength relationship between updraft width and updraft speed, and (5) Demonstrate how updrafts interact with the stability at the top of the convective boundary layer to modulate the depth and vigor of convective clouds. These results have been disseminated via several published journal articles, academic theses, and conference presentations. Collectively these results contribute to the Atmospheric System Research (ASR) program’s goal to “improve understanding of the key cloud, aerosol, precipitation, and radiation processes that affect the Earth’s radiative balance and hydrological cycle, particularly processes that limit the predictive ability of regional and global earth system models”.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Enhancing Fluid Flow Pressure and Saturation Prediction Accuracy and Reducing Uncertainty with Committee Machine – Illinois Basin Decatur Project (IBDP) as a Case Study

Presentation at the 17th International Conference on Greenhouse Gas Control Technologies GHGT-17 held in Calgary, Canada, October 20-24, 2024. Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is a way to play a critical role in the global transition to a low-emission economy. Current progress is hampered by a number of factors, among which the lack of risk-informed design tools and decision support frameworks is seen as a major roadblock. Significant interest exists in using artificial intelligence to accelerate CCS site feasibility studies, as well as to facilitate the permit application process. Existing works commonly train a single deep learning model. This work investigates the feasibility of using a conventional ensemble learning (committee machine) technique to further improve prediction accuracy. Ensemble-based algorithms generally improve over individual base learners in terms of robustness and accuracy. Deep ensembles, however, are time-consuming to create and train. A pragmatic question is whether small-sized ensembles may lead to prediction improvement. Here we evaluated the efficacy of an ensemble learning technique using the latent spectral model (LSM), an efficient deep neural operator algorithm, as base learners. Preliminary results, obtained using the Illinois Basin-Decatur Project (IBDP) carbon sequestration data/model, show that small-sized ensembles can improve prediction over the base learners, achieving prediction accuracy of ~1.6 psi root mean square error (RMSE) on pressure (relative the average reservoir pressure of 3150 psi), and less than 1.3% for saturation.

Sun, Alexander↗

DigiFloat (Final Scientific/Technical Report)

This purpose of this report is to document the development of a floating offshore wind platform Digital Twin for the ARPA-E-funded DigiFloat project led by Principle Power, Inc. In Offshore Wind, Digital Twins are aimed at reducing farm-wide OPEX expenditures through reduced-basis inspection, assessing life extension methods, and obtaining better knowledge of the deployed assets for future product optimization. There is a high level of technical effectiveness and economic feasibility for the technology investigated, as it uses commercial off-the-shelf sensors, and a commercial software package. A substantial portion of the project goals are improvement of existing technology for use with floating wind turbines, and new application of an existing technology to a rapidly-growing sector. A few sensors applied to a small number of units bring benefit to the entire fleet of floating wind turbines in a given farm, and in other future wind farms. The benefits to the public of this project are further optimization and maturation of floating wind technology, to bring it to the U.S. market faster and cheaper.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Enhancing Fluid Flow Pressure and Saturation Prediction Accuracy and Reducing Uncertainty with Committee Machine – Illinois Basin Decatur Project (IBDP) as a Case Study

This is the conference paper accompanying an oral presentation at the 17th International Conference on Greenhouse Gas Control Technologies GHGT-17 held in Calgary, Canada, October 20-24, 2024. Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is a way to play a critical role in the global transition to a low-emission economy. Current progress is hampered by a number of factors, among which the lack of risk-informed design tools and decision support frameworks is seen as a major roadblock. Significant interest exists in using artificial intelligence to accelerate CCS site feasibility studies, as well as to facilitate the permit application process. Existing works commonly train a single deep learning model. This work investigates the feasibility of using a conventional ensemble learning (committee machine) technique to further improve prediction accuracy. Ensemble-based algorithms generally improve over individual base learners in terms of robustness and accuracy. Deep ensembles, however, are time-consuming to create and train. A pragmatic question is whether small-sized ensembles may lead to prediction improvement. Here we evaluated the efficacy of an ensemble learning technique using the latent spectral model (LSM), an efficient deep neural operator algorithm, as base learners. Preliminary results, obtained using the Illinois Basin-Decatur Project (IBDP) carbon sequestration data/model, show that small-sized ensembles can improve prediction over the base learners, achieving prediction accuracy of ~1.6 psi root mean square error (RMSE) on pressure (relative the average reservoir pressure of 3150 psi), and less than 1.3% for saturation.

Sun, Alexander↗