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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 325 records · Page 18
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Digital data provenance for the power grid based on a Keyless Infrastructure Security Solution

In this work a data provenance system for grid-oriented applications is presented. The proposed Keyless Infrastructure Security Solution (KISS) provides mechanisms to store and maintain digital data fingerprints that can later be used to validate and assert data provenance using a time-based, hash tree mechanism. The developed solution has been designed to satisfy the stringent requirements of the modern power grid including execution time and storage necessities. Its applicability has been tested using a lab-scale, proof-of-concept deployment that secures an energy management system against the attack sequence observed on the 2016 Ukrainian power grid cyberattack. The results demonstrate a strong potential for enabling data provenance in a wide array of applications, including speed-sensitive applications such as those found in control room environments.

Sebastian Cardenas, David J.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Microbial ecology of acidic, biogenic gypsum: community structure and distribution of extremophiles on freshly formed and relict sulfate deposits in a hydrogen sulfide-rich cave

Sulfate minerals are abundant on the Martian surface, and many of these evaporite deposits are thought to have precipitated from acidic fluids. On Earth, gypsum (CaSO 4 •2H 2 O) and other sulfates sometimes form under acidic conditions, so exploring the extremophilic life that occurs in these mineral environments can help evaluate the astrobiological potential of acid sulfate depositional settings. Here, we characterized the microbial communities associated with acidic gypsum deposits in a sulfuric acid cave, where sulfate precipitation is driven by sulfide-oxidizing bacteria and archaea. We used 16S rRNA gene sequencing and cell counts to characterize gypsum-associated microorganisms in freshly formed and relict deposits throughout the cave, to test how microbial community composition and abundance would vary with distance from the sulfidic water table and with the concentration of H 2 S(g) and other gases in the cave atmosphere. We found that actively forming gypsum in the lower cave levels was colonized by low-diversity communities that have few cells compared to other environments in the cave. The most abundant taxa were Acidithiobacillus, Metallibacterium, Mycobacteria, and three different Thermoplasmatales-group archaea, which occupied distinct niches based on proximity to sulfidic streams and the concentration of gases in the cave air. By contrast, deposits in older cave levels had more diverse communities that were distinct from those associated with freshly formed gypsum and likely represent a community reliant on different energy resources. These findings show that acidic sulfate deposits serve as habitats for extremophilic microorganisms and broaden our knowledge of the life associated with terrestrial sulfates.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Using the Endogenous CRISPR-Cas System of Heliobacterium modesticaldum To Delete the Photochemical Reaction Center Core Subunit Gene

In Heliobacterium modesticaldum , as in many Firmicutes , deleting genes by homologous recombination using standard techniques has been extremely difficult. The cells tend to integrate the introduced plasmid into the chromosome by a single recombination event rather than perform the double recombination required to replace the targeted locus. Transformation with a vector containing only a homologous recombination template for replacement of the photochemical reaction center gene pshA produced colonies with multiple genotypes, rather than a clean gene replacement. To address this issue, we required an additional means of selection to force a clean gene replacement. In this study, we report the genetic structure of the type I-A and I-E CRISPR-Cas systems from H. modesticaldum , as well as methods to leverage the type I-A system for genome editing. In silico analysis of the CRISPR spacers revealed a potential consensus protospacer adjacent motif (PAM) required for Cas3 recognition, which was then tested using an in vivo interference assay. Introduction of a homologous recombination plasmid that carried a miniature CRISPR array targeting sequences in pshA (downstream of a naturally occurring PAM sequence) produced nonphototrophic transformants with clean replacements of the pshA gene with ~80% efficiency. Mutants were confirmed by PCR, sequencing, optical spectroscopy, and growth characteristics. This methodology should be applicable to any genetic locus in the H. modesticaldum genome. The heliobacteria are the only phototrophic members of the largely Gram-positive phylum Firmicutes , which contains medically and industrially important members, such as Clostridium difficile and Clostridium acetobutylicum . Heliobacteria are of interest in the study of photosynthesis because their photosynthetic system is unique and the simplest known. Since their discovery in the early 1980s, work on the heliobacteria has been hindered by the lack of a genetic transformation system. The problem of introducing foreign DNA into these bacteria has been recently rectified by our group; however, issues still remained for efficient genome editing. The significance of this work is that we have characterized the endogenous type I CRISPR-Cas system in the heliobacteria and leveraged it to assist in genome editing. Using the CRISPR-Cas system allowed us to isolate transformants with precise replacement of the pshA gene encoding the main subunit of the photochemical reaction center.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Rapid Electrochemical Diagnosis of Battery Health and Safety from Cells to Modules

Rapid electrochemical diagnosis of battery health and failure is critical for ensuring reliable battery performance and battery safety. Traditional battery health diagnostics such as capacity measurements and DC pulse tests are reliable and well-understood, however, these measurements of battery capacity and resistance do not capture all aspects of battery degradation. Other aspects of degradation, such as electrolyte decomposition, lithium-plating, and particle cracking are difficult to detect electrochemically but are crucial to measure to get a full picture of battery safety and flag out potential failures. In this work, lab- and field-aged commercial lithium-ion batteries and modules of various chemistries and formats are tested using a variety of traditional electrochemical characterization methods as well as using 2-minute pseudo-random DC pulse sequences at rest and during charge/discharge. The electrochemical measurements are compared to physical cell measurements, cell efficiency, drive cycle performance, physical and thermal heterogeneity, and qualitative safety metrics using statistical and machine-learning methods to discover if a comprehensive "battery health map" can be accurately identified using only rapid DC measurements.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Unsupervised acoustic detection of fatigue-induced damage modes from wind turbine blades

This paper proposes a new in-situ damage detection approach for wind turbine blades, which leverages blade-internal non-stationary acoustic pressure fluctuations caused by the mechanical loading as the main source of excitation. This acoustic excitation was leveraged for the detection of fatigue-related damage modes on a full-scale wind turbine blade undergoing edgewise fatigue testing. An unsupervised, data-driven structural health monitoring strategy was developed to learn the normal cavity-internal acoustic sequences generated by the blade’s load cycles and to detect damage-related anomalies in the context of those sequences. A linear cepstral-coefficient based feature set was used to characterize the cavity-internal acoustics and LSTM-autoencoders were trained to accurately reconstruct healthy-case sequences. The reconstruction error was then used to characterize anomalous acoustic patterns within the blade cavity. The technique was able to detect a damage event earlier than a strain-based system by 120,000 load cycles.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

TX$^2$: Transformer eXplainability and eXploration

The Transformer eXplainability and eXploration (Martindale & Stewart, 2021), or TX 2 software package, is a library designed for artificial intelligence researchers to better understand the performance of transformer models (Vaswani et al., 2017) used for sequence classification. The tool is capable of integrating with a trained transformer model and a dataset split into training and testing populations to produce an ipywidget (Project Jupyter Contributors, 2021) dashboard with a number of visualizations to understand model performance with an emphasis on explainability and interpretability. The TX 2 package is primarily intended to integrate into a workflow centered around Jupyter Notebooks (Kluyver et al., 2016), and currently assumes the use of PyTorch (Paszke et al., 2019) and Hugging Face transformers library (Wolf et al., 2020). The dashboard includes visualization and data exploration features to aid researchers, including an interactive UMAP embedding graph (McInnes et al., 2018) to understand classification clusters, a word salience map that can be updated as researchers alter textual entries in near real time, a set of tools to understand word frequency and importance based on the clusters in the UMAP embedding graph, and a set of traditional confusion matrix analysis tools.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Seasonality and longer-term development generate temporal dynamics in the Populus microbiome

ABSTRACT Temporal variation in community composition is central to our understanding of the assembly and functioning of microbial communities, yet the controls over temporal dynamics for microbiomes of long-lived plants, such as trees, remain unclear. Temporal variation in tree microbiomes could arise primarily from seasonal (i.e., intra-annual) fluctuations in community composition or from longer-term changes across years as host plants age. To test these alternatives, we experimentally isolated temporal variation in plant microbiome composition using a common garden and clonally propagated plants, and we used amplicon sequencing to characterize bacterial/archaeal and fungal communities in the leaf endosphere, root endosphere, and rhizosphere of two Populus spp. over four seasons across two consecutive years. Microbial community composition differed among seasons and years (which accounted for up to 21% of the variation in microbial community composition) and was correlated with seasonal dissimilarity in climatic conditions. However, microbial community dissimilarity was also positively correlated with time, reflecting longer-term compositional shifts as host trees aged. Together, our findings demonstrate that temporal patterns in tree microbiomes arise from both seasonal fluctuations and longer-term changes, which interact to generate unique seasonal patterns each year. In addition to shedding light on two important controls over the assembly of plant microbiomes, our results also suggest future studies of tree microbiomes should account for background temporal dynamics when testing the drivers of spatial patterns in microbial community composition and temporal responses of plant microbiomes to environmental change. IMPORTANCE Microbiomes are integral to the health of host plants, but we have a limited understanding of the factors that control how the composition of plant microbiomes changes over time. Especially little is known about the microbiome of long-lived trees, relative to annual and non-woody plants. We tested how tree microbiomes changed between seasons and years in poplar (genus Populus ), which are widespread and ecologically important tree species that also serve as important biofuel feedstocks. We found the composition of bacterial, archaeal, and fungal communities differed among seasons, but these seasonal differences depended on year. This dependence was driven by longer-term changes in microbial composition as host trees developed across consecutive years. Our findings suggest that temporal variation in tree microbiomes is driven by both seasonal fluctuations and longer-term (i.e., multiyear) development.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

U.S. Department of Energy: National Virtual Biotechnology Laboratory (Technical Report)

With funding from the CARES Act, the U.S Department of Energy (DOE) established the National Virtual Biotechnology Laboratory (NVBL) in March 2020 to address key challenges associated with the COVID-19 crisis. The NVBL brought together the broad scientific and technical expertise and resources of DOE’s 17 national laboratories to help tackle medical supply shortages, discover potential drugs to fight the virus, develop and validate COVID-19 testing methods, model disease spread and impact across the nation, and understand virus transport in buildings and the environment. National laboratory resources leveraged for this effort include a suite of world-leading user facilities broadly available to the research community, such as light and neutron sources, nanoscale science research centers, sequencing and biocharacterization facilities, and high-performance computing facilities. As part of the NVBL framework, DOE rapidly assembled five project teams to (1) identify new targets for medical therapeutics; (2) develop innovations in testing capabilities; (3) provide epidemiological and logistical support; (4) understand viral fate and transport in the environment; and (5) address supply chain bottlenecks by harnessing extensive additive manufacturing capabilities. Each research team was charged with defining high-impact projects that could be completed in a 6-month sprint while coordinating their developments with academia, other government agencies, and the private sector. Within months, NVBL teams used DOE’s high-performance computers and light and neutron sources to identify promising candidates for antibodies and antivirals that universities and drug companies are now evaluating. NVBL researchers also developed new diagnostic targets and sample collection approaches, and supported efforts by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and U.S. Department of Defense to establish national guidelines used in administering millions of tests. Researchers used artificial intelligence and high-performance computing to produce near-real-time data analysis to forecast disease transmission, stress on public health infrastructure, and economic impact, which supported decision-makers at the local, state, and national levels. To minimize virus uptake and protect human health, NVBL teams studied how to control indoor virus movement. Researchers also produced innovations in materials and advanced manufacturing that mitigated shortages in test kits and personal protective equipment, creating nearly 1,000 new jobs. Through its NVBL framework, DOE has contributed significantly to the nation’s COVID response, demonstrating in only a few months the critical impact of its national laboratories. NVBL’s accomplishments demonstrate not only the powerful resource represented by DOE’s national laboratories working together to meet national needs, but also the effectiveness of the integrated NVBL framework for rapidly responding to emergencies with research and development solutions. Going forward, the NVBL is poised to apply the unique capabilities and expertise of the national laboratory complex to future national and international emergencies, both natural and engineered. Through this framework, DOE will continue to be an integral component of agency-wide efforts to prepare for and respond to biorisks and other crises. This technical report describes the goals, progress, and results of NVBL’s five project teams—Molecular Design for COVID-19 Therapeutics, COVID-19 Testing, Epidemiological Modeling, Viral Fate and Transport, and Materials and Manufacturing of Critical Supplies—and lists each team’s publications and research output.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Investigation of the notch sensitivity of tailorable long fiber discontinuous prepreg composite laminates

Tailorable discontinuous fiber composite laminates provide relative formability beyond that of continuous fiber laminates, while achieving improved mechanical performance over comparable stochastic systems. Here, in this work, the notch sensitivity of engineered prepreg platelet molded composite (PPMC) laminates is investigated using the open-hole tension (OHT) test and compared to available data for stochastic PPMCs and continuous fiber laminates made with the same material. The press-formed thermoplastic composites (AS4/PEKK) were molded with a quasi-isotropic stacking sequence. The discontinuous PPMC laminate was found to be notch insensitive with OHT strengths ranging from 145.4 MPa (CV $=$ 7%) for d/w $=$ 0.5 to 229.3 MPa (CV $=$ 9%) for d/w $=$ 0.25. The highly ordered meso-structure of the engineered PPMC laminate yields comparatively excellent mechanical properties for relatively thin laminates in contrast to stochastic systems. Both net- and gross-section failures were observed for d/w $=$ 0.25, which suggests that the engineered PPMC laminates studied here maintain a degree of inherent, internal stress concentrations that compete with those caused by geometric features such as a circular hole. Computational simulations of the OHT tests with explicitly represented platelets were found to be in good agreement with experimental measurements. The progressive failure analysis was used to conduct a numerical investigation of the stacking sequence and platelet meso-morphology.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Development of a High-Pressure Fuel Injection System for Use with Propane-DME

Paper details the design approach and performance of a high-pressure common rail fuel injection system used with Propane-DME mixtures targeting high injection pressures on a light duty 2.2L inline-4 compression ignition engine. The study estimates the bulk modulus of elasticity based on the hardware geometry and operating pressures to assess the compressibility of Propane and DME across a range of pressures typical of the LD engine application. The compressibility factor ranges from 500 to 3000 bar, significantly lower than the theoretical values for the conditions tested. The high-pressure pump performance is optimized via the implementation of an inlet metering valve operated on a crank-angle open/close sequence to control pressure at the common rail. The application of a model-based controller and the use of high-speed sampling of rail pressure indicate that pressure at the rail can be attained with the pump metering valve, and without use of the pressure relieve valve present in the rail. Results show a significant reduction on pumping work parasitics and of fuel heating, on the order of 40°C, at typical working conditions with the proposed approach. Injector rates of injection with Propane-DME are very similar to those of Diesel. Paper compares bench data of rates of injection versus simulation predictions across operating pressures of 200 to 1000bar and from injection commands spanning 0.20 to 2.0ms. Furthermore, the accuracy of the model predictions are attributed in part by to the updated fuel compressibility modulus descriptions attained during the testing.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Plant defensin MtDef4–derived antifungal peptide with multiple modes of action and potential as a bio–inspired fungicide

Chemical fungicides have been instrumental in protecting crops from fungal diseases. However, increasing fungal resistance to many of the single-site chemical fungicides calls for the development of new antifungal agents with novel modes of action (MoA). The sequence-divergent cysteine-rich antifungal defensins with multisite MoA are promising starting templates for design of novel peptide-based fungicides. Here, we experimentally tested such a set of 17-amino-acid peptides containing the γ-core motif of the antifungal plant defensin MtDef4. These designed peptides exhibited antifungal properties different from those of MtDef4. Focused analysis of a lead peptide, GMA4CG_V6, showed that it was a random coil in solution with little or no secondary structure elements. Additionally, it exhibited potent cation-tolerant antifungal activity against the plant fungal pathogen Botrytis cinerea, the causal agent of grey mould disease in fruits and vegetables. Its multisite MoA involved localization predominantly to the plasma membrane, permeabilization of the plasma membrane, rapid internalization into the vacuole and cytoplasm, and affinity for the bioactive phosphoinositides phosphatidylinositol 3-phosphate (PI3P), PI4P, and PI5P. The sequence motif RRRW was identified as a major determinant of the antifungal activity of this peptide. While topical spray application of GMA4CG_V6 on Nicotiana benthamiana and tomato plants provided preventive and curative suppression of grey mould disease symptoms, the peptide was not internalized into plant cells. Our findings open the possibility that truncated and modified defensin-derived peptides containing the γ-core sequence could serve as promising candidates for further development of bio-inspired fungicides.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Broadband cross polarization for ultra-wideline magic-angle spinning NMR

Over the past decade, there has been a sustained interest in using frequency-swept (FS) pulses for the efficient acquisition of wideline and ultra-wideline (UW) NMR powder patterns. Such experiments are typically conducted under static conditions, employing both direct- and indirect-excitation methods (i.e., WCPMG and BRAIN-CP/WCPMG, respectively). Recently, Koppe et al. demonstrated that the WCPMG pulse sequence can be used to efficiently acquire wideline and UW NMR spectra with spinning sideband (SSB) manifolds under magic-angle spinning (MAS) conditions, capitalizing on the increased signal-to-noise ratios (SNR) afforded by MAS. To date, there have been only a few instances of broadband cross-polarization (CP) experiments using FS pulses under MAS conditions and no applications to systems exhibiting wideline and/or ultra-wideline powder patterns, despite the clear advantages these experiments could offer. Herein, we demonstrate that FS pulses selectively applied to a single sideband of the S spin can be used for efficient 1 H-S polarization transfer to S = 1/2 nuclides with large anisotropic chemical shift interactions at slow to moderate MAS rates. The Hartmann–Hahn matching conditions in BRAIN-CP/WCPMG-MAS experiments bear similarity to those of standard CP sequences, yet operate over UW frequency ranges and only require low-amplitude RF pulses on the S channel. Crucial to the success of the BRAIN-CP/WCPMG-MAS experiment is careful calibration of the RF amplitude, transmitter offset, and effective frequency sweep of the FS pulse applied to the S spins at a given MAS rate. Thus, by means of numerical simulations and experimental testing, we provide recommendations for the parameterization and setup of BRAIN-CP/WCPMG-MAS experiments for their most efficient use. Results showcasing the capability of the BRAIN-CP/WCPMG-MAS pulse sequence are presented, including applications to 119 Sn, 195 Pt, and 103 Rh NMR.

Kimball, James J. [Florida State University, Talla↗
DOE OSTI2025

Axenisation of oleaginous microalgal cultures via anoxic photosensitisation

Growing interest in sustainable food and biofuel research has necessitated high quality axenic oleaginous microalgal strains. Unfortunately, most strains available in culture banks contain commensal microbes such as bacteria and the default decontamination method involves antibiotic treatment which has begun to exacerbate the emergence of antibiotic resistance. To overcome this problem, anoxic photosensitisation was investigated as an alternate approach. Four oleaginous microalgal species (Tetradesmus obliquus, Desmodesmus armatus, Chlorella vulgaris and Nannochloropsis limnetica) were incubated in varying concentrations of Rose Bengal (0 μM, 1 μM, 3 μM or 9 μM) either in normal (oxic) or anoxic conditions, for 72 h under light (8.85 ± 0.4 W/m 2 ) in a specially designed heterotrophic growth complex (HGC) medium, followed by 72 h in standard Bold's Basal Medium (BBM). Commonly used antibiotics-based protocol was used as the control method. Post treatment, cell numbers and percentage populations were counted with Flow Cytometry, and viability was tested using standard plating methods using BBM and LB. Additionally, the contaminating microbes in the cultures were profiled using 16Ss rRNA sequencing. Anoxic conditions were able to significantly decrease bacterial content, albeit with an equally detrimental effect on the microalgal population. Although the responses differed between the microalgae, anoxic incubation along with Rose Bengal at 3 μM was able to completely decontaminate N. limnetica and C. vulgaris, while D. armatus and T. obliquus could be decontaminated with an additional streak-plating step. None of the cultures could be decontaminated using antibiotics treatment. These results suggest that axenisation of microalgal cultures was largely due to anoxy, that was synergistically enhanced by Rose Bengal at a concentration of ≥3 μM.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Data-driven models of nonautonomous systems

Nonautonomous dynamical systems are characterized by time-dependent inputs, which complicates the discovery of predictive models describing the spatiotemporal evolution of the state variables of quantities of interest from their temporal snapshots. When dynamic mode decomposition (DMD) is used to infer a linear model, this difficulty manifests itself in the need to approximate the time-dependent Koopman operators. Our approach is to approximate the original nonautonomous system with a modified system derived via a local parameterization of the time-dependent inputs. The modified system comprises a sequence of local parametric systems, which are subsequently approximated by a parametric surrogate model using the DRIPS (dimension reduction and interpolation in parameter space) framework. The offline step of DRIPS relies on DMD to build a linear surrogate model, endowed with reduced-order bases for the observables mapped from training data. The online step interpolates on suitable manifolds to construct a sequence of iterative parametric surrogate models; the target/test parameter points on these manifolds are specified by a local parameterization of the test time-dependent inputs. Here, we use numerical experimentation to demonstrate the robustness of our method and compare its performance with that of deep neural networks.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

A data-driven approach to sampling matrix selection for compressive sensing

Sampling is a fundamental aspect of any implementation of compressive sensing. Typically, the choice of sampling method is guided by the reconstruction basis. However, this approach can be problematic with respect to certain hardware constraints and is not responsive to domain-specific context. We propose a method for defining an order for a sampling basis that is optimal with respect to capturing variance in data, thus allowing for meaningful sensing at any desired level of compression. We focus on the Walsh-Hadamard sampling basis for its relevance to hardware constraints, but our approach applies to any sampling basis of interest. We illustrate the effectiveness of our method on the Physical Sciences Inc. Fabry-Perot interferometer sensor multispectral dataset, the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Lab FTIR-based longwave infrared sensor hyperspectral dataset, and a Colorado State University Swiss Ranger depth image dataset. The spectral datasets consist of simulant experiments, including releases of chemicals such as GAA and SF6. We combine our sampling and reconstruction with the adaptive coherence estimator (ACE) and bulk coherence for chemical detection and we incorporate an algorithmic threshold for ACE values to determine the presence or absence of a chemical. We compare results across sampling methods in this context. We have successful chemical detection at a compression rate of 90%. For all three datasets, we compare our sampling approach to standard orderings of sampling basis such as random, sequency, and an analog of sequency that we term `frequency.' In one instance, the peak signal to noise ratio was improved by over 30% across a test set of depth images.

compressive sensing, hyperspectral imaging, Walsh-↗
DOE OSTI2023

Prescribed fire selects for a pyrophilous soil sub‐community in a northern California mixed conifer forest

Abstract Prescribed fire is a critical strategy for mitigating the effects of catastrophic wildfires. While the above‐ground response to fire has been well‐documented, fewer studies have addressed the effect of prescribed fire on soil microorganisms. To understand how soil microbial communities respond to prescribed fire, we sampled four plots at a high temporal resolution (two burned, two controls), for 17 months, in a mixed conifer forest in northern California, USA. Using amplicon sequencing, we found that prescribed fire significantly altered both fungal and bacterial community structure. We found that most differentially abundant fungal taxa had a positive fold‐change, while differentially abundant bacterial taxa generally had a negative fold‐change. We tested the null hypothesis that these communities assembled due to neutral processes (i.e., drift and/or dispersal), finding that >90% of taxa fit this neutral prediction. However, a dynamic sub‐community composed of burn‐associated indicator taxa that were positively differentially abundant was enriched for non‐neutral amplicon sequence variants, suggesting assembly via deterministic processes. In synthesizing these results, we identified 15 pyrophilous taxa with a significant and positive response to prescribed burns. Together, these results lay the foundation for building a process‐driven understanding of microbial community assembly in the context of the classical disturbance regime of fire.

Microbiology↗
DOE OSTI2024

CovTransformer: A transformer model for SARS-CoV-2 lineage frequency forecasting

With hundreds of SARS-CoV-2 lineages circulating in the global population, there is an ongoing need for predicting and forecasting lineage frequencies and thus identifying rapidly expanding lineages. Accurate prediction would allow for more focused experimental efforts to understand pathogenicity of future dominating lineages and characterize the extent of their immune escape. Here, we first show that the inherent noise and biases in lineage frequency data make a commonly-used regression-based approach unreliable. To address this weakness, we constructed a machine learning model for SARS-CoV-2 lineage frequency forecasting, called CovTransformer, based on the transformer architecture. We designed our model to navigate challenges such as a limited amount of data with high levels of noise and bias. We first trained and tested the model using data from the UK and the USA, and then tested the generalization ability of the model to many other countries and US states. Remarkably, the trained model makes accurate predictions two months into the future with high levels of accuracy both globally (in 31 countries with high levels of sequencing effort) and at the US-state level. Our model performed substantially better than a widely used forecasting tool, the multinomial regression model implemented in Nextstrain, demonstrating its utility in SARS-CoV-2 monitoring. Assuming a newly emerged lineage is identified and assigned, our test using retrospective data shows that our model is able to identify the dominating lineages 7 weeks in advance on average before they became dominant. Overall, our work demonstrates that transformer models represent a promising approach for SARS-CoV-2 forecasting and pandemic monitoring.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

SCALE depletion capabilities for molten salt reactors and other liquid-fueled systems

Nuclear reactor systems that use fuel dissolved in a liquid have the potential for enhanced safety characteristics, improved fuel-cycle outcomes, and more efficient isotope-production configurations. In these reactor systems, the fueled liquid may simultaneously undergo irradiation, physical and chemical removal processes, and fueling. The modeling and simulation of this transmutation and decay with material additions and removals is an ongoing research area. An accurate simulation tool is critical to the reactor and fuel-cycle design, reactor deployment, and source-term characterization for these advanced reactor systems. The work described herein involved implementing, testing, and applying the capability to perform reactor physics simulations within the Oak Ridge National Laboratory-developed SCALE suite for nuclear systems analyses and design, leveraging much of its pedigree in quality-assurance and reactor-analysis capabilities. The functionalities to simulate irradiation with material feeds and removals had been added in ORIGEN, and the TRITON reactor physics sequence was extended to calculate the total removed material and track external nonirradiated mixtures to estimate separate processing or waste streams. Results from these capabilities align with analytical expectations obtained from ORIGEN for simplified test cases and with expectations for a molten salt reactor application. This implementation, available with the SCALE 6.3 release, provides for a more efficient and accurate material accountability methodology, allowing for the characterization, design, and analysis of the complete isotopic material inventory of advanced liquid-fueled systems for a variety of applications.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗