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At least 325 records · Page 18
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluation of Two-Dimensional to One-Dimensional Site Response for Idaho National Laboratory

We perform two-dimensional (2D) site response analyses accounting for spatial variability of soil properties and subsurface geometry of the Eastern Snake River Plane (ESRP), and quantify their effects on ground surface motion relative to one-dimensional (1D) site response analyses at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL). We first present the development of random field idealizations of the repeated basalt lava flows, heterogeneously inter-layered with sediments, from seismic velocity data collected over four decades in the ESRP. Using realizations of the stochastic fields mapped on 2D deterministic finite element models, we perform 2D viscoelastic and equivalent-linear wave propagation simulations, and quantify the mean and variance of site response aggravation factors, defined as the response spectral ratio of 2D to 1D analyses on the ground surface. Results are shown to be insensitive to the constitutive material behavior considered here, for strains induced by rock outcrop peak ground acceleration (PGA) as high as 0.7g: viscoelastic and equivalent-linear analyses predict peak mean 2D/1D aggravation factor 1.05 at period T=0.075 sec (i.e. the 2D response spectrum is 5% higher than the corresponding 1D at that period, on average), which corresponds to the wavelength of the horizontal correlation length of the random field (50m). For periods longer than the fundamental period of the site (here, T 1 =0.3125 sec), the propagating wavelengths are too long to be affected by the 1D site response and the aggravation factor becomes equal to 1. The standard deviation of the natural logarithms of the 2D/1D aggravation factors is ~0.15 for periods shorter than the fundamental period of the site, and decays thereafter at a steady rate.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Multi-INT Signature Collection and Exploitation for Security Los Alamos LDRD Report

This project demonstrates the feasibility of a 2-D passive tracking capability for ground-based and airborne moving sources using multi-INT signal processing of acoustic and seismic signals. We leveraged the recent DDSTE-supported investment in rapid deployable sensors (the Los Alamos Rapid-deployable Sensor Array—LARSA), and used uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAV) as a data source. Moving source types are characterized by their variability with time (exemplified but not limited to the Doppler shift of a passing vehicle) and the signatures used for detection should have similar characteristics. We have demonstrated that time-varying sensor signatures (TVS) combined with time-stable sensor signatures provide a more complete understanding of moving source behavior and drive towards path prediction. Importantly, we have collected a new, relevant LANL dataset of moving sources (small UAV flights and vehicle movement), developed new signatures, and demonstrated a capability to identify, track and forecast the position of TVS.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS1980

Velocity model of the shallow lunar crust

The travel times of the seismic waves obtained for the Apollo-14 and -16 active seismic experiments and the Apollo-16 grenade launches are shown to be consistent with a powder-layer model of the shallow lunar crust. The velocity variation with depth determined from these data is: V(z) = approximately 110 z to the 1/6 power m/sec for z less than 10 meters and V(z) is nearly = to 250 m/sec for z greater than 10 meters. The velocity values found for the 10 meter depth are similar to those found by Kovach, et al. (1972). The z to the 1/6 power depth dependence for the velocity of the topmost layer is that predicted on the basis of a powder layer (Gangi, 1972). The Amplitude variation of the direct waves as a function of source-to-receiver separation, x, is A(x) = A(o)x to the -n power exp(-ax) where 1.5 n 2.2 and a is nearly = to 0.047 neper/m. Velocity-spectra analyses of the direct, surface-reflected, bottom-reflected and refracted waves give results that are consistent with the velocity model inferred from the traveltime data.

Gangi, A. F.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Geometric Interpretation of the Cluster Location Problem Part I: Theory

We present a new framing of the seismic location problem using principles drawn from differential geometry. Our interpretation relies upon the common assumption that travel times observed across a network are continuous, differentiable functions of source location. In consequence, travel‐time functions constitute a differentiable map between the source region and a Riemannian manifold. The manifold is said to be the image of the source region embedded in a generally high‐dimension travel‐time vector space. A cluster of events in the source region has an image of discrete points on the manifold, that, except in the simplest cases, cannot be viewed directly. However, it is possible to project the image of a cluster into a tangent space of the manifold for direct visualization. The projection operator can be computed directly from the data without a velocity model, but produces a distorted rendering of the cluster geometry. With a model we can predict the distortions and correct them to estimate cluster geometry. We develop these points with the simplest possible example, one for which direct visualization of the manifold is possible, using the example as an introduction to the relevant concepts from differential geometry in a familiar setting. The tangent space, a local linearization of the manifold, plays a key role. We develop a metric to estimate the limits of linearization, that is, to determine when the curvature of the manifold invalidates the linear assumption. We also examine the interplay of model error, inadequate network geometry, and pick error. We then generalize our results from the simple case to the general case of 3D source regions observed by general networks. Although we do suggest a new “project and correct” method for location, we do not develop it into a practical algorithm. In conclusion, our intention rather is to highlight new analytical methods grounded in differential geometry.

East Pacific Ocean Islands↗
DOE OSTI2022

Crustal Strain Rates in the Western United States and Their Relationship with Earthquake Rates

Abstract We present a suite of strain rate models for the western United States based on geologic and geodetic data. The geologic data consist of Quaternary fault-slip rates and the geodetic data consists of a new compilation of Global Positioning System (GPS) velocities derived from continuous, semicontinuous, and campaign measurements. We remove postseismic deformation from the GPS time series in order for our geodetic strain rate model to best capture the interseismic strain accumulation rate. We present models based on either geologic or geodetic data, but also create a hybrid model. Although there are some differences between the models, the large-scale features are the same, with the noticeable exception for the Pacific Northwest where interseismic strain is naturally more distributed than the long-term strain release. We also present a map of earthquake rate densities based on mainshocks, and the result has similar spatial features similar to the strain rate models (at least in the southwestern United States). We perform a general correlation analysis between strain rate and seismicity rate (south of Cascadia) and find a change in linearity between seismicity and strain rates from slow to faster deforming areas with seismicity rates relatively lower for the latter. The extent of that change depends a bit on assumptions made on the declustering and completeness of the catalog, but the finding of a change in slope is robust across the different strain rate models. Linearity for all areas is only expected when Gutenberg–Richter parameters and parameters involved in the conversion from strain to moment rate are uniform across the study area. We discuss these qualifications, but find no single satisfactory explanation for our observation. Moreover, when considering a rather short time and space, theoretical considerations of sampling from a power-law distribution actually predict there to be a power law instead of a linear relationship, generally consistent with our observation.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Structure of the Ecuadorian Upper Plate From a Joint Seismic‐Gravity Inversion

The Ecuadorian portion of the South American subduction zone presents an interesting case study in the structure and complex evolution of an upper plate. There are outstanding questions about its tectonic history, composition, and magmatic processes. While previous studies have employed ambient noise tomography to image the Ecuadorian upper plate, surface wave inversions alone often lack sensitivity at relevant shallow depths. This limitation can be overcome with an independent, complementary data set, such as gravity. We have jointly inverted Rayleigh wave phase velocities and Bouguer gravity anomalies to provide a more detailed seismic velocity model of the Ecuadorian upper plate. Our joint inversion has yielded several key improvements from previous models. First, we observe much shallower slow velocities beneath major basins (the Manabí, Progreso, and Gulf of Guayaquil), better aligning with expected basin structure. Second, we identify a high-velocity block beneath the entire forearc, corresponding to the Piñon Terrane, with velocities suggesting the presence of ultramafic material. Third, we highlight a new narrow swath of slow velocities beneath the Ecuadorian Andes, which closely follows the active volcanoes along the Eastern Cordillera. The extent of these slow velocities coincides with the termination of active arc volcanism and the predicted location of the subducted Carnegie Ridge. The predicted compositions for the mid to lower crust in the region preclude a purely compositional explanation for these velocities, suggesting that some level of partial melt is necessary.

Birkey, Andrew [Univ. of Delaware, Newark, DE (Uni↗
NASA NTRS2003

Glacier Ice Mass Fluctuations and Fault Instability in Tectonically Active Southern Alaska

Across southern Alaska the northwest directed subduction of the Pacific plate is accompanied by accretion of the Yakutat terrane to continental Alaska. This has led to high tectonic strain rates and dramatic topographic relief of more than 5000 meters within 15 km of the Gulf of Alaska coast. The glaciers of this area are extensive and include large glaciers undergoing wastage (glacier retreat and thinning) and surges. The large glacier ice mass changes perturb the tectonic rate of deformation at a variety of temporal and spatial scales. We estimated surface displacements and stresses associated with ice mass fluctuations and tectonic loading by examining GPS geodetic observations and numerical model predictions. Although the glacial fluctuations perturb the tectonic stress field, especially at shallow depths, the largest contribution to ongoing crustal deformation is horizontal tectonic strain due to plate convergence. Tectonic forces are thus the primary force responsible for major earthquakes. However, for geodetic sites located < 10-20 km from major ice mass fluctuations, the changes of the solid Earth due to ice loading and unloading are an important aspect of interpreting geodetic results. The ice changes associated with Bering Glacier s most recent surge cycle are large enough to cause discernible surface displacements. Additionally, ice mass fluctuations associated with the surge cycle can modify the short-term seismicity rates in a local region. For the thrust faulting environment of the study region a large decrease in ice load may cause an increase in seismic rate in a region close to failure whereas ice loading may inhibit thrust faulting.

SauberRosenberg, Jeanne M.↗
DOE OSTI2023

MODELING A SPENT NUCLEAR FUEL CASK SEISMIC TEST

The US Department of Energy Spent Fuel and Waste Science and Technology (SFWST) program is planning to conduct a series of full-scale shake table tests to simulate hypothetical earthquake conditions and record the response of surrogate spent nuclear fuel (SNF) assemblies in a canister dry storage system mockup. The shake table motions will represent a range of hypothetical earthquake conditions at hypothetical locations in the continental US to generally define the range of mechanical loads that SNF can be expected to experience during extended dry storage periods. The earthquake conditions will represent seismic hazards in the 2,000-to-20,000-year return period range. The test will use instrumented pressurized water reactor fuel assemblies with surrogate mass inside the fuel rods instead of radioactive fuel pellets. Dummy assemblies with similar mass and dimensions to actual fuel assemblies will occupy the rest of the fuel assembly locations in a SNF canister that holds 32 fuel assemblies. The canister will be located inside a mockup vertical concrete cask. Instrumentation will record the motion of the major components of the complex dynamic system, and strain gauges will be used to record the cladding strain at select locations. Preparations for the test require modeling predictions to identify the range of response of the system and to help select specific earthquake cases to be simulated on the shake table from a large set of potential cases. This paper describes the pretest nonlinear finite element modeling efforts that have been completed to date, including cask system level modeling and fuel assembly modeling in LS-DYNA. The cask system level models are critical for anticipating sliding or tipping of an unanchored cask during the test. The fuel assembly model is needed to estimate the range of cladding strain response and fuel assembly structural response to be expected during the test and cladding strain measurements will be key metrics for model validation and the development of modeling best practices after the test is concluded.

Klymyshyn, Nicholas A.↗
DOE OSTI2020

EQSIM—A multidisciplinary framework for fault-to-structure earthquake simulations on exascale computers, part II: Regional simulations of building response

The existing observational database of the regional-scale distribution of strong ground motions and measured building response for major earthquakes continues to be quite sparse. As a result, details of the regional variability and spatial distribution of ground motions, and the corresponding distribution of risk to buildings and other infrastructure, are not comprehensively understood. Utilizing high-performance computing platforms, emerging high-resolution, physics-based ground motion simulations can now resolve frequencies of engineering interest and provide detailed synthetic ground motions at high spatial density. This provides an opportunity for new insight into the distribution of infrastructure seismic demands and risk. In the work presented herein, the EQSIM fault-to-structure computational framework described in a companion paper, McCallen et al., is employed to investigate the regional-scale response of buildings to large earthquakes. A representative M = 7.0 strike-slip event is used to explore the distribution and amplitude of building demand, and comparisons are made between building response computed with fault-to-structure simulations and building response computed with existing measured near-fault earthquake records. New information on the distribution and variability of building response from high-performance parallel simulations is described and analyzed, and favorable first comparisons between building response predicted with both fault-to-structure simulations and real ground motions records are presented.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hydromechanical Modeling of Fault Rupture in Geologic CO 2 Sequestration: A Comparison of Two Failure Criteria

Abstract The large‐scale implementation of geological carbon sequestration has raised concerns about potential fault activation and induced seismicity, which could compromise storage integrity and pose seismic risks. We theoretically compared two failure criteria, Mohr‐Coulomb (MC) and Modified Cam‐Clay criteria (MCC), to assess fault rupture during CO 2 storage. Both criteria characterize fault behavior in a specific stress regime but differ in reducing the complexity of fault rupture to a few key mechanisms. Using a coupled hydromechanical model, we demonstrate that the choice of a failure criterion and the physics of fault weakening associated with these criteria strongly condition fault response to a given fluid injection. MC mainly relates rupture to friction, while MCC relates rupture to fault poro‐plasticity. Our findings highlight that the selection of a failure criterion, being inherently subjective, can significantly alter the predicted fault behavior during CO 2 storage, thereby impacting the reliability of geomechanical risk assessments.

Cao, M. [Energy Geosciences Division Lawrence Berk↗
DOE OSTI2022

Earthquake Phase Association Using a Bayesian Gaussian Mixture Model

Earthquake phase association algorithms aggregate picked seismic phases from a network of seismometers into individual seismic events and play an important role in earthquake monitoring and research. Dense seismic networks and improved phase picking methods produce massive seismic phase datasets, particularly for earthquake swarms and aftershocks occurring closely in time and space, making phase association a challenging problem. Here, we present a new association method, the Gaussian Mixture Model Association (GaMMA), that combines the Gaussian mixture model with earthquake location, origin time, and magnitude estimation. We treat earthquake phase association as an unsupervised clustering problem in a probabilistic framework, where each earthquake corresponds to a cluster of P and S phases with a hyperbolic moveout of arrival times and a decay of amplitude with distance. We use the multivariate Gaussian distribution to model the collection of phase picks of an event; and the mean of the multivariate Gaussian distribution is given by the predicted arrival time and amplitude from the causative event. We carry out the pick assignment to each earthquake and determine earthquake source parameters (i.e., earthquake location, origin time, and magnitude) under the maximum likelihood criterion using the Expectation-Maximization algorithm. The GaMMA method does not require typical association steps of other algorithms, such as grid-search or supervised training. The results for both synthetic tests and for the 2019 Ridgecrest earthquake sequence show that GaMMA effectively associates phases from a temporally and spatially dense earthquake sequence while producing useful estimates of earthquake location and magnitude.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Deformation of Polycrystalline MgO Up to 8.3 GPa and 1270 K: Microstructures, Dominant Slip-Systems, and Transition to Grain Boundary Sliding

Ferropericlase is the second most abundant mineral in the Earth’s lower mantle and its mechanical properties have a strong influence on the rheology of this region. Here, we deform polycrystalline MgO, the magnesium end-member of ferropericlase, at conditions ranging from 1.6 to 8.3 GPa and 875–1,270 K. We analyse the flow laws and microstructures of the recovered samples using electron microscopy and compare our observations with predictions from the literature. We identify a first mechanism for samples deformed at 1,270 K, attributed to a regime controlled by grain boundary sliding accommodated by diffusion, and characterized by a small grain size, an absence of texture, and no intracrystalline deformation. At 1,070 K and below, the deformation regime is controlled by dislocations. The samples show a more homogeneous grain size distribution, significant texture, and intracrystalline strains. In this regime, deformation is controlled by the ⟨110⟩{110} slip system and a combined ⟨110⟩{110} and ⟨110⟩{100} slip, depending on pressure and temperature. Based on these results, we propose an updated deformation map for polycrystalline MgO at mantle conditions. The implications for ferropericlase and seismic observations in the Earth’s lower mantle are discussed.

Ledoux, Estelle Elisa↗
DOE OSTI2021

Joint Bayesian Inference for Near-Surface Explosion Yield and Height-of-Burst

Forensic capabilities to understand chemical and nuclear explosions are greatly aided by an accurate estimate of explosive yield with uncertainty. The relationship between explosive size and geophysical observations of seismic, acoustic, and optical waves can be exploited to provide an estimate of yield. Any near-surface yield estimate is complicated by the surface interaction, so an estimate for the explosion height-of-burst is necessarily included in the relationship. Additionally, the relationship dictates a trade-off between estimates of yield and height-of-burst. Fortunately, the surface interaction for each type of observation is different, which breaks the trade-off, and the inclusion of height-of-burst with multiple data types improves yield estimation. We define simple parametric forward models to relate seismoäcoustoöptic observations from a data set of known explosive yields and height-of-bursts. The parameters of the models and a prediction for the yield and height-of-burst of a new event can then be estimated given new observations via Bayesian inference. We report posterior distribution estimates of the parametric models using a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling technique. These models are then used to predict the yield and height-of-burst of SUGAR, a historical near-surface nuclear explosion, using its reported historical observations. The reported yield of 1.2 ktonne Trinitrotoluene (TNT)-equivalent (Department of Energy, 2015) is within the estimated posterior. Yield uncertainty can be estimated from the spread of the posterior, which is between 0.9 and 2.1 ktonne TNT-equivalent. The posterior for height-of-burst has a wider range between 10 m below and 8 m above ground that includes the true height-of-burst of 1 m.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Wellbore integrity assessment with casing-based advanced sensing

Wellbore integrity is of paramount importance to subsurface resource extraction, energy storage 1 and waste disposal. After installation, well casing and cement are subject to mechanical stress due to near-well pressure changes and fluid induced corrosion. This is exacerbated for geothermal wells where produced fluid is at high temperature and corrosive. The current state-of-the-art technologies for wellbore integrity assessments are an array of cased hole logging tools. Wireline deployed acoustic, electromagnetic and mechanical tools are all available to inspect steel casing corrosion and casing-cement bond and these tools can provide high-resolution assessment of borehole conditions. They are intrusive, however, in terms of borehole preparation and interruption to the normal operation of the wells, and not suitable for high temperature or highly deviated well deployments. In addition, these measurements are performed infrequently due to high cost, and are therefore incapable of providing frequent data to better predict borehole degradation trajectory, which can help provide early warning of potential borehole failures. For this project we are developing a suite of novel, non-invasive, casing based tools for wellbore integrity assessment, combining fast/low cost screening with higher-precision investigation. Our approach is based on monitoring the response of the casing when energized at the wellhead, thereby interrogating the casing without well intervention. Lab, field and numerical approaches are used in our study. During the early stage of the research, we focus on numerical simulations, which have shown the sensitivity of the low frequency electromagnetic (EM) signals to changes in borehole depths and have successfully tested the concept at a field site with different length well casings. Initial seismic modeling efforts have also demonstrated our capability to simulate seismic tube wave and seismic field alterations due to borehole breakage and associated fluid leakage. Further numerical, laboratory and field experiments are underway for additional technology sensitivity analysis, particularly the transient EM/Seismic reflectometry methods, data acquisition optimization, and numerical simulation improvements.

Wilt, Michael↗
NASA NTRS1982

Density constraints on the composition of Venus

It is pointed out that the composition of Venus is constrained most directly by the mean density of the planet because the moment of inertia factor is unknown and seismic data do not yet exist for the interior. Values of mass and mean radius give 5.245 g/cu cm for the mean density of Venus. This value is nearly 5% less than the value for the mean density of earth. Explanations for the density difference between Venus and earth are discussed, taking into consideration five models which have been advocated to account for the difference. On the basis of calculations, it is concluded that none of the models can be excluded solely on the basis of the observed density difference between Venus and earth. Therefore, evaluation of the models for Venus must be based principally on the plausibility or implausibility of their constituent assumptions and on the success of the models in predicting the compositions of other planets for which more data exist.

Goettel, K. A.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Geophysical interpretation of satellite laser ranging measurements of crustal movement in California

As determined by satellite laser ranging the rate of contraction of a 900 kilometer baseline between sites located near Quincy in northern California and San Diego in southern California is about 61 to 65 mm/yr with a formal uncertainty of about 10 mm/yr. The measured changes in baseline length are a manifestation of the relative motion between the North America and Pacific tectonic plates. This long baseline result is compared to measurements made by more conventional means on shorter baselines. Additional information based on seismicity, geology, and theoretical modelling is also analyzed. Deformation lying within a few tens of kilometers about the major faults in southern California accounts for most, but not all of the observed motion. Further motion is attributable to a broader scale deformation in southern California. Data suggesting crustal movements north of the Garlock fault, in and near the southern Sierra Nevada and local motion at an observatory are also critically reviewed. The best estimates of overall motion indicated by ground observations lie between 40 and 60 mm/yr. This lies within one or two standard deviations of that deduced by satellite ranging but the possibility of some unresolved deficit cannot be dismissed. The long time scale RM2 plate tectonic model of Minster and Jordan predicts a contraction between 47 and 53 mm/yr depending on the extension rate of the Basin and Range. Thus the ground based observations, satellite laser ranging (SLR) results, and RM2 rates differ at about the 10 mm/yr level and are consistent with one another within the data and model uncertainties.

Cohen, S. C.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Multi-Physics Coupled Seismic Safety Analysis of Molten-Salt Reactors

Pool-type Molten Salt Reactors (MSRs) are a promising advanced nuclear reactor concept relying on passive physical behavior to provide increased safety characteristics. The high heat capacity, high boiling point, unpressurized liquid salt contains the nuclear fuel and as it passes through the vessel achieves criticality and produces nuclear power. The salt then carries away the heat produced along with the delayed neutron precursors towards heat exchangers and primary pumps before entering the core. This forms a highly coupled multiphysics problem between neutronics and fluid flow, which makes modeling these reactors challenging. The safety/licensing case heavily relies on modeling and simulation to prove their safety, and significant effort has been expanded by the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program to develop the appropriate simulation tools. Their safety/licensing will require a thorough analysis of their behavior during earthquake-based transients. Earthquakes are a transient condition commonly experienced in many regions, and are safely survived by dozens of reactors every year. Nonetheless, significant conservatisms were introduced with limited predictive modeling and simulation available. The first-of-a-kind capability developed by this research will allow for engineers to analyze ranges of design-basis and beyond-design basis accident scenarios to assess the integrity of the reactor vessel and surrounding system, possibly allowing for limiting the costly conservatisms in the design. This projects uses MASTODON, Griffin, and Pronghorn in the NEAMS ecosystem to model the coupled multiphysics problem posed by an earthquake in a molten salt reactor. It marches through a number of number of coupling schemes, from uncoupled simulations to tightly two-way coupled simulations. The appropriate level of coupling for these simulations will then be determined based on the accuracy in the quantities of interest (QoI) and computational effort involved in each scheme. The QoIs chosen for this paper include the mass flow rate across the heat exchanger (for Pronghorn simulations), power output of the reactor (for Griffin simulations), and the maximum Von Mises stress (for MASTODON simulations). This summary paper reports on the current progress of this project, with 2D tightly coupled multiphysics results.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Periodicity Analysis of Earthquake Occurrence and Hypocenter Depth Near Parkfield, California, 1994–2002 Versus 2006–2014

In central California, periodic earthquake occurrence suggests a relationship with annual hydrological, atmospheric, thermal, and tidal loadings. Here, in catalogs of declustered earthquakes within 100 km from Parkfield, CA, we study a semiannual periodicity for the monthly number of ≤7.2-km-deep earthquakes and the monthly median hypocenter depth over 1994–2002 and 2006–2014. Peak-trough months in fitted periodic components differ between time spans and event populations. Deeper earthquakes present no semiannual and a weak annual periodicity. Although modeled pore pressure shows a Spring peak, when added to the elastic Coulomb stress from surface hydrospheric loads, it fails to predict a 6-month periodicity for 2006–2014. In 1994–2002, the pore-pressure amplitude appears to be of same order as the elastic stress and may have had a stronger effect. In 2006–2014, we did not find load model parameters explaining the observed pattern or apparent changes following the 2003 San Simeon and 2004 Parkfield earthquakes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗