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At least 325 records · Page 18

Simulation of Wind Profile Perturbations for Launch Vehicle Design

Ideally, a statistically representative sample of measured high-resolution wind profiles with wavelengths as small as tens of meters is required in design studies to establish aerodynamic load indicator dispersions and vehicle control system capability. At most potential launch sites, high- resolution wind profiles may not exist. Representative samples of Rawinsonde wind profiles to altitudes of 30 km are more likely to be available from the extensive network of measurement sites established for routine sampling in support of weather observing and forecasting activity. Such a sample, large enough to be statistically representative of relatively large wavelength perturbations, would be inadequate for launch vehicle design assessments because the Rawinsonde system accurately measures wind perturbations with wavelengths no smaller than 2000 m (1000 m altitude increment). The Kennedy Space Center (KSC) Jimsphere wind profiles (150/month and seasonal 2 and 3.5-hr pairs) are the only adequate samples of high resolution profiles approx. 150 to 300 m effective resolution, but over-sampled at 25 m intervals) that have been used extensively for launch vehicle design assessments. Therefore, a simulation process has been developed for enhancement of measured low-resolution Rawinsonde profiles that would be applicable in preliminary launch vehicle design studies at launch sites other than KSC.

Adelfang, S. I.↗

Geant4 simulation for a study of a possible use of carbon ions pencil beam for the treatment of ocular melanomas with the active scanning system at CNAO Centre

The aim of this work is to validate the Geant4 application reproducing the CNAO (National Centre for Oncological Hadrontherapy) beamline and to study of a possible use of carbon ion pencil beams for the treatment of ocular melanomas at the CNAO Centre. The promising aspect of carbon ions radiotherapy for the treatment of this disease lies in its superior relative radiobiological effectiveness (RBE). The Monte Carlo Geant4 toolkit is used to simulate the complete CNAO extraction beamline, with the active and passive components along it. A human eye modeled detector, including a realistic target tumor volume, is used as target. Cross check with previous studies at CNAO using protons allows comparisons on possible benefits on using such a technique with respect to proton beams. Before the eye-detector irradiation a validation of the Geant4 simulation with CNAO experimental data is carried out with both carbon ions and protons. Important beam parameters such as the transverse FWHM and scanned radiation field 's uniformity are tested within the simulation and compared with experimental measurements at CNAO Centre. The physical processes involved in secondary particles generation by carbon ions and protons in the eye-detector are reproduced to take into account the additional dose to the primary beam given to irradiated eye's tissues. A study of beam shaping is carried out to produce a uniform 3D dose distribution (shaped on the tumor) by the use of a spread out Bragg peak. The eye-detector is then irradiated through a two dimensional transverse beam scan at different depths. In the use case the eye-detector is rotated of an angle of 40 deg. in the vertical direction, in order to mis-align the tumor from healthy tissues in front of it. The treatment uniformity on the tumor in the eye-detector is tested. For a more quantitative description of the deposited dose in the eye-detector and for the evaluation of the ratio between the dose deposited in the tumor and the other eye components, proton and carbon DVHs (Dose Volume Histograms) are compared. A high statistics simulated sample is used to minimize statistical errors. In the simulation a new particle generation method is developed in order to reproduce the experimental treatment plan by importing the DICOM RT-PLAN file, which contains all the information on the irradiation geometries and sequences (treatment plan parameters). Conclusions Even further validations must be done, the good results so far obtained by this work point out and confirm the possibility of using carbon ions delivered with active scanning beams to treat the ocular melanoma.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Multivariate Statistical Analysis of Water Chemistry in Evaluating the Origin of Contamination in Many Devils Wash, Shiprock, New Mexico

This report evaluates the chemistry of seep water occurring in three desert drainages near Shiprock, New Mexico: Many Devils Wash, Salt Creek Wash, and Eagle Nest Arroyo. Through the use of geochemical plotting tools and multivariate statistical analysis techniques, analytical results of samples collected from the three drainages are compared with the groundwater chemistry at a former uranium mill in the Shiprock area (the Shiprock site), managed by the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Legacy Management. The objective of this study was to determine, based on the water chemistry of the samples, if statistically significant patterns or groupings are apparent between the sample populations and, if so, whether there are any reasonable explanations for those groupings.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DESI 2024 II: sample definitions, characteristics, and two-point clustering statistics

We present the samples of galaxies and quasars used for DESI 2024 cosmological analyses, drawn from the DESI Data Release 1 (DR1). We describe the construction of largescale structure (LSS) catalogs from these samples, which include matched sets of synthetic reference ‘randoms’ and weights that account for variations in the observed density of the samples due to experimental design and varying instrument performance. We detail how we correct for variations in observational completeness, the input ‘target’ densities due to imaging systematics, and the ability to confidently measure redshifts from DESI spectra. We then summarize how remaining uncertainties in the corrections can be translated to systematic uncertainties for particular analyses. We describe the weights added to maximize the signalto-noise of DESI DR1 2-point clustering measurements. We detail measurement pipelines applied to the LSS catalogs that obtain 2-point clustering measurements in configuration and Fourier space. The resulting 2-point measurements depend on window functions and normalization constraints particular to each sample, and we present the corrections required to match models to the data. We compare the configuration- and Fourier-space 2-point clustering of the data samples to that recovered from simulations of DESI DR1 and find they are, generally, in statistical agreement to within 2% in the inferred real-space over-density field. The LSS catalogs, 2-point measurements, and their covariance matrices will be released publicly with DESI DR1.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The G‐JF Thermostat for Accurate Configurational Sampling in Soft‐Matter Simulations

Abstract We implement the statistically sound G‐JF thermostat for Langevin dynamics simulations into the ESPResSo molecular package for large‐scale simulations of soft‐matter systems. The implemented integration method is tested against the integrator currently used by the molecular package in simulations of a fluid bilayer membrane. While the latter exhibits deviations in the sampling statistics that increase with the integration time step dt , the former reproduces near‐correct configurational statistics for all dt within the stability range of the simulations. We conclude that, with very modest revisions to existing codes, one can significantly improve the performance of statistical sampling using Langevin thermostats.

Arad, Evyatar↗

Nested sampling of isobaric phase space for the direct evaluation of the isothermal-isobaric partition function of atomic systems

Nested Sampling (NS) is a powerful athermal statistical mechanical sampling technique that directly calculates the partition function, and hence gives access to all thermodynamic quantities in absolute terms, including absolute free energies and absolute entropies. NS has been used predominately to compute the canonical (NVT) partition function. Although NS has recently been used to obtain the isothermal-isobaric (NPT) partition function of the hard sphere model, a general approach to the computation of the NPT partition function has yet to be developed. Here, we describe an isobaric NS (IBNS) method which allows for the computation of the NPT partition function of any atomic system. We demonstrate IBNS on two finite Lennard-Jones systems and confirm the results through comparison to parallel tempering Monte Carlo. Temperature-entropy plots are constructed as well as a simple pressure-temperature phase diagram for each system. We further demonstrate IBNS by computing part of the pressure-temperature phase diagram of a Lennard-Jones system under periodic boundary conditions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Forward modeling fluctuations in the DESI LRGs target sample using image simulations

We use the forward modeling pipeline, Obiwan, to study the imaging systematics of the Luminous Red Galaxies (LRGs) targeted by the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI). Imaging systematics refers to the false fluctuation of galaxy densities due to varying observing conditions and astrophysical foregrounds corresponding to the imaging surveys from which DESI LRG target galaxies are selected. We update the Obiwan pipeline, which we previously developed to simulate the optical images used to target DESI data, to further simulate WISE images in the infrared. This addition allows simulating the DESI LRGs sample, which utilizes WISE data in the target selection. Deep DESI imaging data combined with a method to account for biases in their shapes is used to define a truth sample of potential LRG targets. We inject these data evenly throughout the DESI Legacy Imaging Survey footprint at declinations between -30 and 32.375 degrees. We simulate a total of 15 million galaxies to obtain a simulated LRG sample (Obiwan LRGs) that predicts the variations in target density due to imaging properties. We find that the simulations predict the trends with depth observed in the data, including how they depend on the intrinsic brightness of the galaxies. We observe that faint LRGs are the main contributing source of the imaging systematics trend induced by depth. We also find significant trends in the data against Galactic extinction that are not predicted by Obiwan. These trends depend strongly on the particular map of Galactic extinction chosen to test against, implying systematic contamination in the Galactic extinction maps is a likely root cause (e.g., Cosmic-Infrared Background, dust temperature correction). We additionally observe a morphological change of the DESI LRGs population evidenced by a correlation between OII emission line average intensity and the size of the z-band PSF. This effect most likely results from uncertainties in background subtraction. The detailed findings we present should be used to guide any observational systematics mitigation treatment for the clustering of the DESI LRGs sample.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Further developments in cloud statistics for computer simulations

This study is a part of NASA's continued program to provide global statistics of cloud parameters for computer simulation. The primary emphasis was on the development of the data bank of the global statistical distributions of cloud types and cloud layers and their applications in the simulation of the vertical distributions of in-cloud parameters such as liquid water content. These statistics were compiled from actual surface observations as recorded in Standard WBAN forms. Data for a total of 19 stations were obtained and reduced. These stations were selected to be representative of the 19 primary cloud climatological regions defined in previous studies of cloud statistics. Using the data compiled in this study, a limited study was conducted of the hemogeneity of cloud regions, the latitudinal dependence of cloud-type distributions, the dependence of these statistics on sample size, and other factors in the statistics which are of significance to the problem of simulation. The application of the statistics in cloud simulation was investigated. In particular, the inclusion of the new statistics in an expanded multi-step Monte Carlo simulation scheme is suggested and briefly outlined.

Chang, D. T.↗

Rare Event Sampling Improves Mercury Instability Statistics

Due to the chaotic nature of planetary dynamics, there is a non-zero probability that Mercury's orbit will become unstable in the future. Previous efforts have estimated the probability of this happening between 3 and 5 billion years in the future using a large number of direct numerical simulations with an N-body code, but were not able to obtain accurate estimates before 3 billion years in the future because Mercury instability events are too rare. In this paper we use a new rare-event sampling technique, Quantile Diffusion Monte Carlo (QDMC), to estimate that the probability of a Mercury instability event in the next 2 billion years is approximately 10 –4 in the REBOUND N-body code. We show that QDMC provides unbiased probability estimates at a computational cost of up to 100 times less than direct numerical simulation. QDMC is easy to implement and could be applied to many problems in planetary dynamics in which it is necessary to estimate the probability of a rare event.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Boosted dark matter and its implications for the features in IceCube HESE data

Here we study the implications of the premise that any new, relativistic, highly energetic neutral particle that interacts with quarks and gluons would create cascade-like events in the IceCube (IC) detector. Such events would be observationally indistinguishable from neutral current deep-inelastic (DIS) scattering events due to neutrinos. Consequently, one reason for deviations, breaks or excesses in the expected astrophysical power-law neutrino spectrum could be the flux of such a particle. Motivated by features in the recent 1347-day IceCube high energy starting event (HESE) data, we focus on particular boosted dark matter (χ) related realizations of this premise. Here, χ is assumed to be much lighter than, and the result of, the slow decay of a massive scalar (φ ) which constitutes a major fraction of the Universe's dark matter (DM) . We show that this hypothesis, coupled with a standard power-law astrophysical neutrino flux is capable of providing very good fits to the present data, along with a possible explanation of other features in the HESE sample. These features include a) the paucity of events beyond ~ 2 PeV b) a spectral feature resembling a dip or a spectral change in the 400 TeV–1 PeV region and c) an excess in the 50-100 TeV region. We consider two different boosted DM scenarios, and determine the allowed mass ranges and couplings for four different types of mediators (scalar, pseudoscalar, vector and axial-vector) which could connect the standard and dark sectors. We consider constraints from gamma-ray observations and collider searches. We find that the gamma-ray observations provide the most restrictive constraints, disfavouring the 1σ allowed parameter space from IC fits, while still being consistent with the 3σ allowed region. We also test our proposal and its implications against the (statistically independent) sample of six year through-going muon track data recently released by IceCube.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

THE DATA REDUCTION PIPELINE FOR THE SDSS-IV MaNGA IFU GALAXY SURVEY

Mapping Nearby Galaxies at Apache Point Observatory (MaNGA) is an optical fiber-bundle integral-field unit (IFU) spectroscopic survey that is one of three core programs in the fourth-generation Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS-IV). With a spectral coverage of 3622–10354 Å and an average footprint of ∼500 arcsec{sup 2} per IFU the scientific data products derived from MaNGA will permit exploration of the internal structure of a statistically large sample of 10,000 low-redshift galaxies in unprecedented detail. Comprising 174 individually pluggable science and calibration IFUs with a near-constant data stream, MaNGA is expected to obtain ∼100 million raw-frame spectra and ∼10 million reduced galaxy spectra over the six-year lifetime of the survey. In this contribution, we describe the MaNGA Data Reduction Pipeline algorithms and centralized metadata framework that produce sky-subtracted spectrophotometrically calibrated spectra and rectified three-dimensional data cubes that combine individual dithered observations. For the 1390 galaxy data cubes released in Summer 2016 as part of SDSS-IV Data Release 13, we demonstrate that the MaNGA data have nearly Poisson-limited sky subtraction shortward of ∼8500 Å and reach a typical 10 σ limiting continuum surface brightness μ = 23.5 AB arcsec{sup −2} in a five-arcsecond-diameter aperture in the g -band. The wavelength calibration of the MaNGA data is accurate to 5 km s{sup −1} rms, with a median spatial resolution of 2.54 arcsec FWHM (1.8 kpc at the median redshift of 0.037) and a median spectral resolution of σ = 72 km s{sup −1}.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Application of the Combined Judgmental and Randomly Placed Sampling Method

In the wake of the 2001 anthrax incidents in the United States, there has been considerable discussion about the role of judgmental and probabilistic sampling strategies, particularly in the context of clearance sampling. The Combined Judgmental and Random (CJR) methodology provides a statistical methodology that allows practitioners to leverage information from both judgmental and randomly selected sample locations and then quantify the confidence in negative results. The objective of the CJR sampling design is to demonstrate, with high probability, that a high percentage of the decision area (or population) is acceptable, given that none of the samples are unacceptable. The purpose of this document is to assist practitioners to appropriately use the CJR methodology and to implement this sampling design in Visual Sample Plan (VSP). We begin by defining some fundamental terms. A decision area is the geographical or spatial area (indoor or outdoor) about which practitioners wish to draw a conclusion on the basis of sampling and other relevant information. Decision areas typically include all or part of a building, but they may be any contaminated (or potentially contaminated) area for which characterization or clearance is required. In this report, a statistical sampling approach refers to any sampling approach based on a mathematical or statistical model that provides confidence or probability statements about the decision area. Statistical sampling approaches typically involve taking samples at random locations, or at the nodes of a randomly located grid or lattice that is superimposed on the decision area. The term probabilistic sampling is often used to describe statistical sampling designs that exclusively use randomly located samples. This terminology implies that probabilistic statements can only be made based upon the results of randomly placed samples. However, the CJR method utilizes a Bayesian model that gives rise to a formal probabilistic statement regarding the acceptability of the decision area based upon the information obtained from both judgmental and random samples. Judgmental samples play a vital role in the characterization and clearance process because they include the informed prior belief and expert knowledge of personnel involved in the sampling process.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Statistical theory for estimating sampling errors of regional radiation averages based on satellite measurements

The processes which determine the weather and climate are driven by the radiation received by the earth and the radiation subsequently emitted. A knowledge of the absorbed and emitted components of radiation is thus fundamental for the study of these processes. In connection with the desire to improve the quality of long-range forecasting, NASA is developing the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE), consisting of a three-channel scanning radiometer and a package of nonscanning radiometers. A set of these instruments is to be flown on both the NOAA-F and NOAA-G spacecraft, in sun-synchronous orbits, and on an Earth Radiation Budget Satellite. The purpose of the scanning radiometer is to obtain measurements from which the average reflected solar radiant exitance and the average earth-emitted radiant exitance at a reference level can be established. The estimate of regional average exitance obtained will not exactly equal the true value of the regional average exitance, but will differ due to spatial sampling. A method is presented for evaluating this spatial sampling error.

Smith, G. L.↗

Statistical Analysis Techniques for Small Sample Sizes

The small sample sizes problem which is encountered when dealing with analysis of space-flight data is examined. Because of such a amount of data available, careful analyses are essential to extract the maximum amount of information with acceptable accuracy. Statistical analysis of small samples is described. The background material necessary for understanding statistical hypothesis testing is outlined and the various tests which can be done on small samples are explained. Emphasis is on the underlying assumptions of each test and on considerations needed to choose the most appropriate test for a given type of analysis.

Navard, S. E.↗

Statistical Symbolic Execution with Informed Sampling

Symbolic execution techniques have been proposed recently for the probabilistic analysis of programs. These techniques seek to quantify the likelihood of reaching program events of interest, e.g., assert violations. They have many promising applications but have scalability issues due to high computational demand. To address this challenge, we propose a statistical symbolic execution technique that performs Monte Carlo sampling of the symbolic program paths and uses the obtained information for Bayesian estimation and hypothesis testing with respect to the probability of reaching the target events. To speed up the convergence of the statistical analysis, we propose Informed Sampling, an iterative symbolic execution that first explores the paths that have high statistical significance, prunes them from the state space and guides the execution towards less likely paths. The technique combines Bayesian estimation with a partial exact analysis for the pruned paths leading to provably improved convergence of the statistical analysis. We have implemented statistical symbolic execution with in- formed sampling in the Symbolic PathFinder tool. We show experimentally that the informed sampling obtains more precise results and converges faster than a purely statistical analysis and may also be more efficient than an exact symbolic analysis. When the latter does not terminate symbolic execution with informed sampling can give meaningful results under the same time and memory limits.

Reliability↗

HIGH-REDSHIFT COOL-CORE GALAXY CLUSTERS DETECTED VIA THE SUNYAEV-ZEL'DOVICH EFFECT IN THE SOUTH POLE TELESCOPE SURVEY

We report the first investigation of cool-core properties of galaxy clusters selected via their Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (SZ) effect. We use 13 galaxy clusters uniformly selected from 178 deg{sup 2} observed with the South Pole Telescope (SPT) and followed up by the Chandra X-ray Observatory. They form an approximately mass-limited sample (>3 Multiplication-Sign 10{sup 14} M{sub Sun} h {sup -1}{sub 70}) spanning redshifts 0.3 < z < 1.1. Using previously published X-ray-selected cluster samples, we compare two proxies of cool-core strength: surface brightness concentration (c{sub SB}) and cuspiness ({alpha}). We find that c{sub SB} is better constrained. We measure c{sub SB} for the SPT sample and find several new z > 0.5 cool-core clusters, including two strong cool cores. This rules out the hypothesis that there are no z > 0.5 clusters that qualify as strong cool cores at the 5.4{sigma} level. The fraction of strong cool-core clusters in the SPT sample in this redshift regime is between 7% and 56% (95% confidence). Although the SPT selection function is significantly different from the X-ray samples, the high-z c{sub SB} distribution for the SPT sample is statistically consistent with that of X-ray-selected samples at both low and high redshifts. The cool-core strength is inversely correlated with the offset between the brightest cluster galaxy and the X-ray centroid, providing evidence that the dynamical state affects the cool-core strength of the cluster. Larger SZ-selected samples will be crucial in understanding the evolution of cluster cool cores over cosmic time.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗