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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 325 records · Page 18

BETO 2021 Peer Review - Catalytic Upgrading of Pyrolysis Vapors 2.3.1.314

Catalytic fast pyrolysis (CFP) is a versatile pathway for the direct liquefaction of biomass and waste carbon sources to generate a stabilized bio-oil intermediate that can be further processed into renewable fuels, chemicals, and materials. The objective of this project is advance the CFP state-of-technology through integrated catalyst and process development, expand market responsiveness by creating routes to novel co-products, and provide experimental data to inform process modelling and scale-up activities. Research advancements over the past two years include reducing analytical uncertainty by achieving 100 ± 1% carbon balances during reaction testing with woody biomass, improving process efficiency by achieving a 4x increase in catalyst cycle length, demonstrating compatibility with waste feedstocks, and confirming process durability for 100+ reaction cycles. Additionally, this project supported a comprehensive pathway review to evaluate scale-up needs. This review resulted in the early identification of technical risks and informed proactive planning for the BETO 2022 Verification. Other impacts from this project include generation of broadly enabling scientific knowledge (14 publications/18 presentations since 2019), engagement with industry partners (e.g., Johnson Matthey and ExxonMobil), and identification of a promising pathway to market that addresses emerging demands for biogenic refinery feedstocks.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Obstacles to Practical Digital Supply Chain Risk Management in the Energy Sector

Cyber supply chain risk management (C-SCRM) programs must consider operations that depend on the lifecycles of digital components such as hardware, firmware, software, and services. We integrate academic literature, historical incidents, and existing standards to identify obstacles faced by C-SCRM programs.

Business Process Management & Integration↗

Smart Contracts for Power Grid Applications Using the Advanced DLT Cyber Grid Guard Testbed

In this study is presented two power system applications with distributed ledger technology (DLT) and smart contracts (SC) that were assessed in a Cyber-Grid-Guard System (CGGS) advanced testbed, with protective relays, power meters, communication devices, DLT devices, synchronized time source, clock displays and real time simulator. This CGGS testbed was set in the Advanced Protection Lab, 252 lab space of the Grid Research Integration and Deployment Center (GRID- C), at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. In power grids, customer-owned distributed energy resources (DERs) are more frequent than in the past, and the numbers of points of interconnection (POI) with customer-owned DERs have increased. Disruptive operation from DERs presents a risk to grid operations, and protective relays located at the POI are used to isolate out-of-tolerance or poorly behaving of DERs. Ensuring the integrity of data from the relays at the POI, and DLT could enhance the security of the power grids. The first application is a SC to define and control the allowable total power factor (TPF) of the DER (wind farm) output, and the terms of the SC are implemented using DLT with a CGGS for a customer-owned DER. The TPF SC was implemented by the CGGS using DLT. The experimental model was performed with a real-time simulator using a CGGS and relay in-the-loop. The data collected from the CGGS were used to execute the TPF SC. The TPF limits were between +0.9 and +1.0, and the breakers’ operation in the POI was controlled by the relay using the SC. The events were collected from the real-time simulator, CGGS, and SEL 700GT relay to validate a successful application of the TPF SC using DLT. The second application is a SC to measure and control the allowable voltage service limits (VSL) by the CGGS using DLT. The tests were performed by using a real-time simulator, CGGS and relay in-the-loop. The data was collected from the CGGS that executed the SC. The main constraints were defined based on ANSI C84.1 service voltage limits, and the operation of the breakers in the POI. The events were collected from the CGGS, and SEL 700GT relay to assess a successful operation of the VSL SC using DLT.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Deep-learning-enhanced assessment of wellbore barrier effectiveness in geologic storage systems with intermediate aquifers

For geologic systems where carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) is injected underground, existing wells represent potential pathways for fluid migration. Here, this study introduces a novel deep learning model to quantify the likelihood and potential magnitude of fluid migration through wellbores at sites with intermediate aquifers or thief zones between the injection units and underground drinking water sources. Synthetic datasets, generated using reservoir simulations, captured a wide range of subsurface conditions, well attributes, operational parameters, and fluid migration scenarios. Among the regression models developed to predict brine and CO 2 leakage rates and CO 2 saturations along leaky wellbores, convolutional neural network (CNN) outperformed both Light Gradient Boosting Machine and deep neural network. Additionally, a CNN-based classification model was created to predict whether brine and CO 2 would leak along a wellbore, further improving performance over regression alone. The best models were integrated into the National Risk Assessment Partnership Open-source Integrated Assessment Model for rapid, stochastic assessment of storage system containment and leakage risks. A case study demonstrated the model’s ability to simulate fluid migration through existing wells with multiple intermediate aquifers. This computationally efficient wellbore model offers value in support of site performance evaluation and risk-informed decision making by stakeholders.

CO2 leakage↗

Process and environmental safety of thermochemical conversion of biomass

Biomass presents a promising opportunity for converting waste into valuable energy, fuels, and chemicals through various thermochemical processes, including hydrothermal carbonization, hydrothermal liquefaction, pyrolysis, gasification, and combustion. However, these processes operate under extreme conditions, introducing significant safety hazards that necessitate meticulous management to prevent accidents. This review discusses potential hazards, risk mitigation strategies, and safety management practices, emphasizing the importance of integrated safety measures into the design and operation of these processes. It also highlights the critical need for robust safety engineering and environmental management strategies tailored to each thermo-chemical process. As these processes transition from laboratory to industrial scale, there is an imperative to develop a clear and concise pathway for emerging industries to achieve regulatory compliance, achieve safety certification, and enable effective stewardship of potential fugitive emissions. By addressing safety and environmental concerns, stakeholders can optimize economic benefits, rural development, and achieve sustained domestic energy generation benefits offered by biomass conversion technologies. Further research on plant design optimization, operational safety, environmental evaluation standardization, and innovative waste management solutions will support the safe and effective scaling of these technologies, ultimately contributing to sustainable management and resource recovery.

09 - BIOMASS FUELS↗

SMART Deliverable 6.1.2a: Application of the ORION tool to the IBDP Carbon Storage Site

Forecasting and managing potential induced seismic activity is one of the challenges facing commercialscale geologic carbon sequestration (GCS), as well as other geologic energy extraction and byproduct disposal technologies. Historically, the process to develop robust, science-based forecasts of induced seismicity has required an integrated effort from experts in seismology, geomechanics, and reservoir engineering to manage data, develop and evaluate models of subsurface processes, and to calibrate and interpret the results from a range of models to understand site behavior relative to prescribed standards and in the context of uncertainty in geologic characterization data, forecasting models, and operational scenario uncertainty. The Operational Forecasting of Induced Seismicity (ORION) toolkit is an open-source, observation-based forecasting toolkit that is being co-developed by two U.S. DOE-funded initiatives: the National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) and the Scienceinformed Machine Learning for Accelerating Real Time Decisions in Subsurface Applications (SMART) Initiative. ORION is designed to provide functionality to support decision making about seismic hazard analysis and risk management for GCS stakeholders ranging from the public to site operators to expert seismologists. The tool, which is written as open-source code in the Python programming language, is composed of a desktop graphical user interface (GUI) and an underlying forecasting engine. The forecasting engine uses available reservoir properties, well and fluid injection scenario details, and observed seismic catalog data as inputs to produce a set of temporal and spatio-temporal seismic forecasts.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

BioSecure Digital Twin: Manufacturing Innovation and Cybersecurity Resilience

U.S. national security, prosperity, economy, and well-being require secure, flexible, and resilient Biopharmaceutical Manufacturing. The COVID-19 pandemic reaffirmed that the biomedical production value-chain is vulnerable to disruption and has been under attack from sophisticated nation-state adversaries. Current cyber defenses are inadequate, and the integrity of critical production systems and processes are inherently vulnerable to cyber-attacks, human error, and supply chain disruptions. The following chapter explores how a BioSecure Digital Twin will improve U.S. manufacturing resilience and preparedness to respond to these hazards by significantly improving monitoring, integrity, security, and agility of our manufacturing infrastructure and systems. The BioSecure Digital Twin combines a scalable manufacturing framework with a robust platform for monitoring and control to increase U.S. biopharma manufacturing resilience. Then, the chapter discusses some of the inherent vulnerabilities and challenges at the nexus of health and advanced manufacturing. Next, the chapter highlights that as the Pandemic evolves, we need agility and resilience to overcome significant obstacles. This section highlights an innovative application of Cyber Informed Engineering to developing and deploying a BioSecure Digital Twin to improve the resilience and security of the biopharma industrial supply chain and production processes. Finally, the chapter concludes with a process framework to complement the Digital Twin platform, called the Biopharma (Observe, Orient, Decide, Act) OODA Loop Framework (BOLF), a four-step approach to decision-making outputs from the Digital Twin. The BOLF will help end users leverage twin technology by distilling the available information, focusing the data on context, and rapidly making the best decision while remaining cognizant of changes that can be made as more data becomes available.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Near-term transition and longer-term physical climate risks of greenhouse gas emissions pathways

Policy, business, finance and civil society stakeholders are increasingly looking to compare future emissions pathways across both their associated physical climate risks stemming from increasing temperatures and their transition climate risks stemming from the shift to a low-carbon economy. Herein, we present an integrated framework to explore near-term (to 2030) transition risks and longer-term (to 2050) physical risks, globally and in specific regions, for a range of plausible greenhouse gas emissions and associated temperature pathways, spanning 1.5–4 °C levels of long-term warming. By 2050, physical risks deriving from major heatwaves, agricultural drought, heat stress and crop duration reductions depend greatly on the temperature pathway. By 2030, transition risks most sensitive to temperature pathways stem from economy-wide mitigation costs, carbon price increases, fossil fuel demand reductions and coal plant capacity reductions. Considering several pathways with a 2 °C target demonstrates that transition risks also depend on technological, policy and socio-economic factors.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Prefabricated Zero Energy Retrofit Technologies: A Market Assessment

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy’s (EERE’s) mission is to “create and sustain American leadership in the transition to a global clean energy economy.” EERE’s vision is a strong and prosperous America powered by clean, affordable, and secure energy. In support of this vision, one of EERE’s strategic pillars is to stimulate the growth of a thriving domestic clean energy manufacturing industry. This report seeks to identify products in the European and U.S. markets that can enable a more integrated and standardized approach to conducting zero energy retrofits, leveraging off-site construction and manufacturing. Greater integration of energy conservation measures into prefabricated building components will further enable efficiency adoption, while reducing project complexity, risks, and costs.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Process Intensification and Scale-Up of a Continuous Enzymatic Hydrolysis and Separation Process

Combining separate unit operations into one where the best of each part can be maximized is one of the benefits of process intensification. An example is the combination of lignocellulosic biomass enzymatic hydrolysis with the downstream solid-liquid separation step to produce clarified sugars ready for fermentation or catalytic upgrading. The productivity and endpoint yield of enzymatic hydrolysis both enjoy the benefits of reduced feedback inhibition through the continuous removal of sugars by incorporating separations into the reactor. Likewise, the efficiency of recovering clarified sugars from the enzymatic hydrolysis slurry can be enhanced by operating separations equipment at steady-state conditions simultaneously with the continuously fed hydrolysis process. A key parameter that enables greater processing capacity while also raising the risks of failure is the solids loading or concentration. Higher solids loading allows for smaller reactor vessels and results in clarified sugars of higher concentration; however, required pumping power increases, reactor agitation may become ineffective, and membrane flux suffers. Feedstock material attributes influenced by upstream pretreatment must also be scrutinized more carefully: dilute-acid pretreated and deacetylated-and-disc-refined feedstocks exhibit different characteristics that affect agitation and pumping. The authors invite you to further explore the process science enabling the scale-up of this technology from conceptual work at the bench to pilot-scale industrially-relevant equipment where the challenges and solutions of integration and process optimization are expounded upon.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

IMPROVING TRANSPORTATION EFFICIENCY THROUGH INTEGRATED VEHICLE, ENGINE, AND POWERTRAIN RESEARCH -SUPERTRUCK II

Daimler Truck North America (DTNA) completed a five year, $40.1 M SuperTruck 2 project to demonstrate technologies to achieve both vehicle and engine efficiency improvements. The vehicle objective was to develop and demonstrate a concept vehicle with at least 115% vehicle freight efficiency improvement over a weighted average of four cycles relative to a 2009 best-in-class baseline vehicle. The engine technology development goal was to achieve 55% brake thermal efficiency (BTE) as tested on a dynamometer at an equivalent of 65 MPH. Both project objectives were to develop technologies that are cost effective. SuperTruck 2 started in 2017 and built on the knowledge gained in SuperTruck 1. SuperTruck 2 enabled the ability to evaluate high risk high reward research centered on four areas that show the most potential for commercialization: aerodynamics, powertrain, rolling resistance and energy management. In addition, several industry, University and National laboratories were able to collaborate in developing technologies found to be successful in meeting the program objectives. Several technologies show promise towards production while some technologies do not show a quick path towards production.

Villeneuve, Darek↗

Operating Experience Data Analysis for Digital Instrumentation and Control System Reliability and Risk Assessment in Nuclear Power Plants

The implementation of advanced digital instrumentation and control (DI&C) systems in U.S. nuclear power plants (NPPs) can bring significant advancements in reliability, monitoring, and control capabilities. However, these systems also introduce new challenges, particularly in assessing risks such as common-cause failures (CCFs) and establishing robust reliability estimates for DI&C components. Addressing these challenges is critical for ensuring the safe and efficient operation of NPPs. Recently, Idaho National Laboratory was tasked by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) to conduct a DI&C reliability study using operating experience data from the nuclear industry. The two operating experience data sources for the study are the Institute of Nuclear Power Operations’ Industry Reporting and Information System (IRIS) and the NRC’s Licensee Event Report database which is hosted at Idaho National Laboratory at https://lersearch.inl.gov/LERSearchCriteria.aspx. This report provides a comprehensive examination of DI&C systems, including their architecture, operational advantages, and associated challenges. It reviews existing industry DI&C studies and failure mode taxonomies, along with reliability data from various industries. Through a detailed analysis of these databases, the study provides insights into DI&C system performance. Considerations should be given to incorporate DI&C failure data into the NRC's Integrated Data Collection and Coding System and updating the Reliability and Availability Data System to support ongoing DI&C reliability studies. Recommendations are also provided for modeling DI&C reliability and CCF in probabilistic risk assessment, thereby supporting risk-informed decision-making and enhancing the reliability and safety of NPPs.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

U.S. Industry Opportunities for Advanced Nuclear Technology Development Phase II (Final Report)

This limited scope study aims at preserving the results of experimental programs for the safety of light water cooled and advanced reactors by locating and documenting, to the extent possible, where the experimental test information for these programs has been archived. The Light Water Reactor Data Preservation Activity Team initially identified seven (7) experimental programs, exceeding the required five (5) in the scope of work, which were determined to be “at risk” of potentially losing valuable data. The seven (7) experimental programs/subject areas identified are (descriptions of each experiment/experience are provided in Section 3.0): 1. FERMI-1 Reactor Accident 2. Fission Product Behavior During the In-Pile Severe Fuel Damage Test SFD I-4 3. Containment Iodine Computer Code Exercise Based on Radioiodine Test Facility (RTF) Experiment 4. Wide Range Piping Integrity Demonstration (WIND) Project 5. Iodine Chemical Research in Canada 6. High Temperature Fission Product Chemistry and Transport in Steam 7. Anything related to radioactive Methyl Iodide.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Implementing an Objectives-Driven, Risk-Informed, and Case-Assured Approach to Safety and Mission Success at NASA

NASA is developing a “Standard for Assurance of Space Flight Safety and Mission Success” that implements an objectives-driven, risk-informed, and case-assured approach to safety and mission success (S&MS) for NASA space flight programs and projects. The standard aligns with the philosophy of risk leadership that has recently been established in NASA policy to assure acceptable levels of flight crew safety and mission success risk. It is consistent with existing NASA risk management requirements and is compatible with NASA program management and systems engineering requirements. The methodology described in the standard is presented in terms of an S&MS assurance framework that is designed to allow substantial flexibility in the specific means by which programs and projects achieve acceptable mission S&MS risk. Such flexibility is necessary to accommodate the increasingly broad range of acquisition strategies employed by NASA, including commercial transportation services, as well as to accommodate the increasingly rapid evolution of space flight-related technologies and practices. A key feature of the S&MS assurance framework is the specification of S&MS success criteria for each life-cycle review (LCR). The S&MS assurance case is structured around these criteria, the satisfaction of which indicates that the program/project is adhering to the S&MS risk posture. This enables the evolving S&MS assurance case to be used as a fundamental program/project submittal at each LCR, where its inherent structure of argument, supported by evidence, directly supports the evaluation of the program/project with respect to the S&MS success criteria, and by extension, the S&MS risk posture. As such, the S&MS assurance case is integral to program/project systems engineering, risk management, and S&MS oversight activities, and provides the principal basis for S&MS risk acceptance by the Decision Authority throughout the program/project life cycle.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Integrated Mid-Continent Stacked Carbon Storage Hub Project Phase II (Final Summary Report)

The Phase II Integrated Midcontinent Stacked Carbon Storage Hub (IMSCS-HUB) is part of the Carbon Storage Assurance Facility Enterprise (CarbonSAFE) established by the United States Department of Energy (DOE) National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL). CarbonSAFE is phased to support the development of commercial-scale (50 million metric tonnes [Mt] over a 30-year period) carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) in the United States. The IMSCS-HUB study area comprises carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) sources in Iowa, Kansas, and Nebraska (the source corridor), and CO 2 sinks in Kansas and Nebraska (the storage corridor), representing the first large-scale project for the Midcontinent region. The stacked storage corridor is characterized by alternating sequences of deep saline formations, oil-bearing reservoirs, shale, and evaporite units that are conducive to vertically stacked CO 2 injection for geologic storage and enhanced oil recovery (EOR). Three sites within the IMSCS-HUB stacked storage corridor were evaluated in Phase II for commercial CCUS feasibility: one in southwest-central Nebraska, Sleepy Hollow Field (SHF), a second in southwestern Nebraska near Madrid (Madrid), and a third in southwestern Kansas, the Patterson Site (composed of the Patterson, Heinitz, Hartland, and Oslo fields). In Phase II, the team assessed the feasibility of storage complexes at the potential storage sites in Nebraska and Kansas to support a commercial-scale storage hub that integrates proven CO 2 capture technology and transport from nearby ethanol sources. Building on lessons learned from the DOE-NETL Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnerships (RCSPs), the Project Team has identified a clear strategy to meet DOE’s 2025 objective of commercial carbon capture and storage (CCS) implementation by developing a CO 2 market and infrastructure that relies on multiple ethanol-based CO 2 sources in the short term and the incorporation of multiple coal-fired power plant CO 2 sources when commercial capture is economically viable. The team also leveraged the updated 45Q tax credit to develop capture and transport infrastructure. Commercial-scale CCUS is feasible at two candidate storage sites studied, the Madrid, Nebraska Site and the Patterson Site in Kearny County, Kansas. The Sleepy Hollow Field in Nebraska was found to be an attractive candidate for stacked storage with CO 2 -EOR (Battelle 2020e). Outreach efforts facilitated engagement from industry, government, and research sectors (Battelle and GPI, 2020) and an outreach plan for future phases of the project was developed to address issues that are of concern in the IMSCS-HUB project area (Battelle, 2020f). All components of a CCUS project were determined to be feasible in the IMSCS-HUB region and Risk Mitigation Plan was developed and includes strategies to mitigate risks associated with each project component (Battelle, 2020j). A roadmap was developed to obtain the required UIC permits for an integrated CCUS project (Battelle, 2020k). The regional storage resource characterization demonstrated significant opportunity for commercial-scale projects in the IMSCS-HUB storage corridor with 577.4 Mt of stacked CO 2 storage capacity and the potential to produce 181.9 MMbbls of oil via EOR across 17 individual storage areas (Battelle and ARI, 2020). The pipeline assessment study found viable pipeline routes that connected 45Q-eligible ethanol plants, coal fired power plants, and other sources in the IMSCS-HUB corridor. The comprehensive results of subsurface characterization, modeling efforts, outreach assessment, and regulatory analysis from were integrated to develop a Detailed Commercial Development Plan for the IMSCS-HUB (Battelle, 2020n). Commercialization efforts will involve obtaining Class VI UIC permits, establishing and finalizing the pipeline route, and evaluating capture projects at participating CO 2 sources. Phases I and II of the IMSCS-HUB CarbonSAFE provide a strong foundation for safely, efficiently, and cost-effectively characterizing and permitting commercial-scale project sites in the region. The plan for implementation of commercial-scale CCUS projects in the IMSCS-HUB is aligned with the objectives of CarbonSAFE Phase III: Site Characterization and CO 2 Capture Assessment.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Final Technical Report Wireless Microsensors System for Monitoring Deep Subsurface Operations

This final technical report describes the main findings of the project Wireless Microsensors System for Monitoring Deep Subsurface Operations (FE0031850). The project was part of the U.S. Department of Energy National Energy Technology Laboratory FOA 1998 program to develop new sensor systems for direct observation of parameters associated with CO2 injection and to provide data collection without being disruptive to operations. The overall DOE program was aimed at developing and validating innovative transformational sensor systems, amenable for integration with autonomous intelligent monitoring systems, that are capable of being deployed within the casing annulus and do not have casing perforation or wires/cables in the annulus for installation, power supply, or data transmission needs. Project accomplishments included 1) design and fabrication of a wireless downhole sensor system to monitor parameters for CO2 storage, 2) field testing of the sensor system in two legacy oil & gas wells, and 3) development of an analysis approach that validates the measurements and demonstrates the application of the technology to depict CO2 movement in the subsurface. The project leveraged new sensor technologies along with specialized wellbore telemetry, deployment, and analysis methods designed to address the challenges and risks related to CO2 storage in the subsurface. Results from field testing were a mixture of successes and challenges. The temperature sensor rings, installation procedures in legacy oil & gas wells, wireless powering demonstration, automated data collection, and material compatibility were successful. The wireless data transfer through cement to the wellhead via the sensor relays was not functional beyond the first relay. Consequently, work in the last year of the project included some additional testing of data transmission through different materials along with modeling and analysis of field data for CO2 monitoring applications. This work suggested there are options like polymer cements and open hole annuli that may allow point-to-point transmission along the borehole. The techno-economic analysis suggests that the sensor system is ~40% less expensive than fiber optic distributed temperature system. Modeling of CO2 storage applications suggests temperature can provide an indicator of CO2 saturation but would be best combined with pressure sensors.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE-NE LWRS Integrated Program Plan - Physical Security Pathway

Domestic nuclear power is facing increased financial pressures from a variety of areas and there is pressure on these utilities to reduce their cost of operation. Currently, about 20%-30% of all on-site personnel are related to physical security. The LWRS Program recognized that R&D related to physical security could play a role in providing nuclear utilities technical and staffing efficiency options to meet their physical security commitments, but utilities often lack the technical basis or the ability to create the technical basis to realize or implement these efficiencies; towards this end, the LWRS Program created the Physical Security Pathway in September 2019. The pathway performs R&D to develop methods, tools, and technologies to optimize and modernize a nuclear power facility’s security posture. The pathway will: (1) conduct research on risk-informed techniques for physical security that account for a dynamic adversary; (2) apply advanced modeling and simulation tools to better inform physical-security scenarios and reduce uncertainties in force-on-force modeling; (3) assess benefits from proposed enhancements and novel mitigation strategies and explore changes to best practices, guides, or regulation to enable modernization; and (4) enhance and provide the technical basis for stakeholders to employ new security methods, tools, and technologies.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Impact of electric vehicle battery recycling on reducing raw material demand and battery life-cycle carbon emissions in China

The rapid growth of electric vehicles (EVs) in China challenges raw material demand. This study evaluates the impact of recycling and reusing EV batteries on reducing material demand and carbon emissions. Integrating a national-level vehicle stock turnover model with life-cycle carbon emission assessment, we found that replacing nickel-cobalt-manganese batteries with lithium iron phosphate batteries with battery recycling can reduce lithium, cobalt, and nickel demand between 2021 and 2060 by up to 7.8 million tons (Mt) (67%), 12.4 Mt (96%), and 37.2 Mt (93%), respectively, significantly decreasing reliance on import. Moreover, battery recycling coupled with reuse can reduce carbon emissions by up to 6,532-6,864 Mt (36.0-37.9%), depending on four recycling methods employed. However, this reuse strategy delays battery recycling and risks lithium supply shortage, necessitating trade-offs between carbon reduction and material supply. Future technologies, such as lithium-sulfur and all-solid-state batteries, despite their energy efficiency, might exacerbate lithium shortage, underscoring the crucial need for increased lithium supply.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗