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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 325 records · Page 18
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Land use and turbine technology influences on wind potential in the United States

As clean energy ambitions have expanded, critically evaluating renewable energy supply has become increasingly important to the energy research community and stakeholders. This study examines the onshore wind resource potential for the conterminous United States and its sensitivity to siting constraints and turbine technology innovation. We compile localized regulatory information and use high-resolution data to present multiple siting regimes covering relatively constrained to unconstrained potentials. Our efforts reveal high sensitivity to these variables and sizable uncertainty in the overall wind energy resource potential. Specifically, we find that siting constraints may shift the total capacity available to commercial wind energy by 2.3–15.1 TW. Furthermore, our results illustrate that technology advancement could require larger setbacks from buildings and infrastructure, reducing the total available capacity potential by 20% relative to estimates using current technology, but that this reduction is largely offset by increased generation such that the net effect on generation is 1%. The observed sensitivity to and uncertainty resulting from the variables we analyze suggest there is value in continued study and development of increasingly sophisticated approaches to characterizing wind resource potential.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluation of Models and Measurements to Estimate Solar Radiation for 1-Axis Tracking Modules at NREL's SRRL: Preprint

Solar radiation reaching photovoltaic (PV) modules on a 1-axis tracking system can be measured by reference cells or thermopiles. The former is often biased due to the reflection of solar radiation by the glass cover of the PV. The uncertainty can be moderated by applying a correction factor, as a function of solar incident angle and the refractive index of the glass, to the measurement. On the other hand, solar radiation on the inclined PV panels can be computed by transposition models using global horizontal irradiance (GHI) observations from thermopiles. This study examines the models and measurements to estimate solar radiation for 1-axis tracking modules at National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s (NREL’s) Solar Radiation Research Laboratory (SRRL). The 1-minute plane-of-array (POA) irradiances in 2019 are computed using the observed GHIs and a transposition model developed by Perez et al. The POA irradiances are compared with the observation by an IMT reference cell and a Kipp & Zonen CM Pyranometer 22 (CMP22) thermopile. For SRRL’s 1-axis tracking system with the annual solar energy of 2323.9 kWh/m2, the POA irradiance is overestimated by ~70 kWh/m2 using the transposition model. This bias is reduced by more than 50% using the IMT measurements calibrated by a correction factor for a PV surface of antireflection coated glass.

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗
DOE OSTI2022

Getting lost tracking the carbon footprint of hydropower

In the transition to low-carbon electricity, well-quantified estimates of carbon dynamics are needed to ensure that emissions reduction targets are achieved. Here we review the state of the science on carbon accounting for hydropower reservoirs and identify limitations and future solutions. Nearly all research on reservoir greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions has focused on individual reservoirs in isolation without considering their position in a freshwater network draining organic matter from upstream watersheds or the coordinated operation of reservoir cascades. Second, carbon inventories have extrapolated from a small, non-probabilistic sample of highly variable measurements of GHG emissions to unsampled reservoirs. A stronger statistical foundation is needed to estimate a global inventory and its uncertainty. Third, attribution to hydropower is based on ranks assigned to reservoir purpose. Instead, the physical influence of hydropower on carbon dynamics could be directly measured. Fourth, current carbon-accounting practices neglect time. A time-varying approach would quantify variation in emissions for electricity portfolios from changes in the fuel mix at different times and account for ancillary services, i.e., the ability to support the grid when variable renewables are not available without using natural gas. Reservoirs also sequester a significant portion of inflowing carbon in sediments and slow the carbon cycle by delaying the return of carbon to the atmosphere for decades to centuries. Together, these refinements would help to illuminate pathways toward meeting energy demand with the longest-possible delay in returning carbon to the atmosphere and without adding ancient sources to the pool of carbon cycling through aquatic ecosystems.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluation of Models and Measurements to Estimate Solar Radiation for 1-Axis Tracking Modules at NREL’s SRRL

Solar radiation reaching photovoltaic (PV) modules on a 1-axis tracking system can be measured by reference cells or thermopiles. The former is often biased due to the reflection of solar radiation by the glass cover of the PV. The uncertainty can be moderated by applying a correction factor, as a function of solar incident angle and the refractive index of the glass, to the measurement. On the other hand, solar radiation on the inclined PV panels can be computed by transposition models using global horizontal irradiance (GHI) observations from thermopiles. This study examines the models and measurements to estimate solar radiation for 1-axis tracking modules at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s (NREL’s) Solar Radiation Research Laboratory (SRRL). The 1-minute plane-of-array (POA) irradiances from 2019 are computed using the observed GHIs and a transposition model developed by Perez et al. The POA irradiances are compared with the observation by an IMT reference cell and a Kipp & Zonen CM Pyranometer 22 (CMP22) thermopile. For the SRRL’s 1-axis tracking system with an annual solar energy of 2323.9 kWh/m 2 , the POA irradiance is overestimated by ~70 kWh/m 2 using the transposition model. This bias is reduced by more than 50% using the IMT measurements calibrated by a correction factor for a PV surface of antireflection coated glass.

POA irradiance↗
DOE OSTI2025

Comprehensive assessment of deep reinforcement learning approaches for economic dispatch in nuclear-driven microgrids

As the electrical grid integrates more variable renewable energy sources such as wind and solar, the demand for distributed and flexible systems to address this increased variability becomes critical. Nuclear-driven microgrids provide a promising solution by offering stable generation to complement intermittent renewables, ensuring grid reliability and operating efficiency. This paper proposes a recurrent deep reinforcement learning framework for optimal economic dispatch in a nuclear-powered microgrid integrating renewable energy sources, small modular reactors, battery storage systems, and balance-of-plant dynamics. A three-agent control architecture is developed, where demand and renewable energy agents act as forecasters, and a reinforcement learning-based dispatch agent performs real-time energy allocation. A nonlinear programming formulation is first used to generate an optimal baseline for benchmarking. The proposed dispatch controller, based on Proximal Policy Optimization enhanced with Long Short-Term Memory networks, exploits temporal correlations in system dynamics by taking advantage of the time series used as inputs to improve policy robustness under uncertainty. Comparative analysis against established deep reinforcement learning methods, including Proximal Policy Optimization with a feedforward architecture, Soft Actor-Critic, and Twin Delayed Deep Deterministic Policy Gradient, demonstrates superior performance. Numerical results indicate that the proposed controller achieves a 0.39% cost reduction relative to the nonlinear programming benchmark and outperforms other learning-based methods by generating additional revenue of up to 0.35%. All reinforcement learning controllers compute dispatch actions in less than 0.3 s, resulting in a computational speedup of more than three orders of magnitude over the nonlinear programming baseline. The findings of this paper highlight their applicability for real-time operation and control in nuclear-integrated microgrids under volatile operating conditions.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2020

A non-intrusive optical (NIO) approach to characterize heliostats in utility-scale power tower plants: Sensitivity study

Power towers, a type of concentrating power tower technology, use a large number of heliostats to concentrate sunlight and produce renewable energy. Optical errors of heliostats can cause drastic losses in the efficiency of power-tower plants. Accurately measuring optical errors is crucial to assessing and improving plant performance. This analysis discusses an innovate non-intrusive optical (NIO) approach to measure slope, canting, and tracking errors by detecting distortions in the reflected tower structure in heliostat images. Further in this work a sensitivity study is carefully conducted to determine the uncertainty requirements to allow the method to calculate slope errors with an accuracy of 0.25 mrad. Measurement uncertainty sources include camera resolution and position uncertainty, tower position uncertainty, and number of collected images. Each uncertainty source is investigated to determine its impact on the accuracy of the slope-error calculation. A combination of theoretical results and experimental results obtained from data collected on a heliostat at Sandia National Laboratories is used to determine and validate uncertainty requirements. The analysis shows that a measurement uncertainty of 0.25 mrad can be realized by realistically controlling uncertainty sources when implementing the NIO method. It demonstrates the superior performance of NIO in performing in-situ optical characterization.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Forecasting Solar Photovoltaic Power Production: A Comprehensive Review and Innovative Data-Driven Modeling Framework

The intermittent and stochastic nature of Renewable Energy Sources (RESs) necessitates accurate power production prediction for effective scheduling and grid management. This paper presents a comprehensive review conducted with reference to a pioneering, comprehensive, and data-driven framework proposed for solar Photovoltaic (PV) power generation prediction. The systematic and integrating framework comprises three main phases carried out by seven main comprehensive modules for addressing numerous practical difficulties of the prediction task: phase I handles the aspects related to data acquisition (module 1) and manipulation (module 2) in preparation for the development of the prediction scheme; phase II tackles the aspects associated with the development of the prediction model (module 3) and the assessment of its accuracy (module 4), including the quantification of the uncertainty (module 5); and phase III evolves towards enhancing the prediction accuracy by incorporating aspects of context change detection (module 6) and incremental learning when new data become available (module 7). This framework adeptly addresses all facets of solar PV power production prediction, bridging existing gaps and offering a comprehensive solution to inherent challenges. By seamlessly integrating these elements, our approach stands as a robust and versatile tool for enhancing the precision of solar PV power prediction in real-world applications.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Integration of Total-Sky Imager Data with a Physics-Based Smart Persistence Model for Intra-Hour Forecasting of Solar Radiation

Short-term solar forecasting models based solely on global horizontal irradiance (GHI) measurements are often unable to discriminate the forecasting of the factors affecting GHI from those that can be precisely computed by atmospheric models. Our previous study introduced a Physics-based Smart Persistence model for Intra-hour forecasting of solar radiation (PSPI) that decomposed the forecasting of GHI into the computation of extraterrestrial solar radiation and solar zenith angle and the forecasting of cloud albedo and cloud fraction. The extraterrestrial solar radiation and solar zenith angle were accurately computed by the Solar Position Algorithm (SPA) developed at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). A cloud retrieval technique was used to estimate cloud albedo and cloud fraction from surface-based observations of GHI. With the assumption of persistent cloud structures, the cloud albedo and cloud fraction were predicted for future time steps using a two-stream approximation and a 5-minute exponential weighted moving average, respectively. The model evaluation indicated the estimation and forecast of cloud fraction mostly contributed to the uncertainty of the PSPI though it overcame the persistence and smart persistence models in all forecast time horizons between 5 and 60 minutes. This study aims to enhance the PSPI by ingesting surface-based observations of cloud fraction from a total sky imager (TSI). The estimation and forecast of cloud albedo is correspondingly improved by utilizing the cloud fraction observations and thus leads to more accurate GHI forecast. Various time-series analysis methods are also investigated on the forecasting of cloud fraction and cloud albedo for further improving the GHI forecast. These improvements are valuable for many applications, such as forecasting energy use for buildings, grid operations, and ultimately bringing down the cost of solar energy.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Impacts of climate change on subannual hydropower generation: a multi-model assessment of the United States federal hydropower plant

Abstract Hydropower is a low-carbon emission renewable energy source that provides competitive and flexible electricity generation and is essential to the evolving power grid in the context of decarbonization. Assessing hydropower availability in a changing climate is technically challenging because there is a lack of consensus in the modeling representation of key dynamics across scales and processes. Focusing on 132 US federal hydropower plants, in this study we evaluate the compounded impact of climate and reservoir-hydropower models’ structural uncertainties on monthly hydropower projections. In particular, instead of relying on one single regression-based hydropower model, we introduce another conceptual reservoir operations-hydropower model in the assessment framework. This multi-model assessment approach allows us to partition uncertainties associated with both climate and hydropower models for better clarity. Results suggest that while at least 70% of the uncertainties at the annual scale and 50% at the seasonal scale can be attributed to the choice of climate models, up to 50% of seasonal variability can be attributed to the choice of hydropower models, particularly in regions over the western US where the reservoir storage is substantial. The analysis identifies regions where multi-model assessments are needed and presents a novel approach to partition uncertainties in hydropower projections. Another outcome includes an updated evaluation of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5)-based federal hydropower projection, at the monthly scale and with a larger ensemble, which can provide a baseline for understanding future assessments based on CMIP6 and beyond.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

A refined assessment of nuclear data target accuracy requirements for ALFRED

The interest in target accuracy assessment has been recently renewed within the OECD/NEA Working Party on International Nuclear Data Evaluation Cooperation with an update exercise, thanks to the invaluable initiative of Massimo Salvatores. This work, moving from evaluations on the main core integral parameters of the Advanced Lead-cooled Fast Reactor European Demonstrator (ALFRED), and the identification of the associated target accuracies needed for improving its design, approaches the retrieval of target accuracy requirements for nuclear data, as the inverse problem of uncertainty quantification. The preliminary results obtained in a previous work are here refined by explicitly taking into account the total contribution due to correlations among variables in the optimization constraint, while its various components are evaluated individually. Moreover, three different sets of cost parameters are considered to introduce a bias in the solution in order to take in due account the relative difficulties in the execution of new differential experiments as needed for achieving the proposed target accuracies. By this, the obtained results are deemed usefully informative, and proposed for the update of a High Priority List which identifies the isotopes-reaction couples of most interest for future refinement experiments, especially when integrated with further analogous information collected on other advanced nuclear systems. Among the cross-sections whose refinement contributes the most to the reduction of the multiplication factor, the fission of Pu{sup 239} was found, which needs to be fixed below 1% in the range of interest for ALFRED (2 keV-4 MeV). Another contribution for the amelioration of the multiplication factor calculation accuracy, is due to the capture channel of Pu{sup 239}, for which the initial high uncertainty (around 15%) can be significantly reduced resorting to easily practicable experiments. The same occurs for the inelastic of Pb{sup 207}, for which the initial uncertainty value of around 50% can be drastically reduced up to target values between 4% and 7%.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Sensitivity analysis of the effect of wind and wake characteristics on wind turbine loads in a small wind farm

Abstract. Wind turbines are designed using a set of simulations to determine the fatigue and ultimate loads, which are typically focused solely on unwaked wind turbine operation. These structural loads can be significantly influenced by the wind inflow conditions. Turbines experience altered inflow conditions when placed in the wake of upstream turbines, which can additionally influence the fatigue and ultimate loads. It is important to understand the impact of uncertainty on the resulting loads of both unwaked and waked turbines. The goal of this work is to assess which wind-inflow-related and wake-related parameters have the greatest influence on fatigue and ultimate loads during normal operation for turbines in a three-turbine wind farm. Twenty-eight wind inflow and wake parameters are screened using an elementary effects sensitivity analysis approach to identify the parameters that lead to the largest variation in the fatigue and ultimate loads of each turbine. This study uses the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) 5 MW baseline wind turbine, simulated with OpenFAST and synthetically generated inflow based on the International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) Kaimal turbulence spectrum with the IEC exponential coherence model using the NREL tool TurbSim. The focus is on sensitivity to individual parameters, though interactions between parameters are considered, and how sensitivity differs between waked and unwaked turbines. The results of this work show that for both waked and unwaked turbines, ambient turbulence in the primary wind direction and shear are the most sensitive parameters for turbine fatigue and ultimate loads. Secondary parameters of importance for all turbines are identified as yaw misalignment, streamwise integral length, and the exponent and streamwise components of the IEC coherence model. The tertiary parameters of importance differ between waked and unwaked turbines. Tertiary effects account for up to 9.0 % of the significant events for waked turbine ultimate loads and include veer, non-streamwise components of the IEC coherence model, Reynolds stresses, wind direction, air density, and several wake calibration parameters. For fatigue loads, tertiary effects account for up to 5.4 % of the significant events and include vertical turbulence standard deviation, lateral and vertical wind integral lengths, non-streamwise components of the IEC coherence model, Reynolds stresses, wind direction, and all wake calibration parameters. This information shows the increased importance of non-streamwise wind components and wake parameters in the fatigue and ultimate load sensitivity of downstream turbines.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Statistician’s Overview of Physics-Informed Neural Networks for Spatio-Temporal Data

The recent success of deep neural network models with physical constraints (so-called, Physics-Informed Neural Networks, PINNs) has led to renewed interest in the incorporation of mechanistic information in predictive models. Statisticians and others have long been interested in this problem, which has led to several practical and innovative solutions dating back decades. In this overview, we focus on the problem of data-driven prediction and inference of dynamic spatio-temporal processes that include mechanistic information, such as would be available from partial differential equations, with a strong focus on the quantification of uncertainty associated with data, process, and parameters. Here, we give a brief review of several paradigms and focus our attention on Bayesian implementations given they naturally accommodate uncertainty quantification. We then show that it is straight-forward to include the Bayesian PINN (B-PINN) within the Bayesian hierarchical model (BHM) framework that has long been considered for modeling dynamic spatio-temporal processes. Such a BHM-PINN is illustrated via a simulation study in which a latent nonlinear Burgers’ equation PDE governs the dynamics of Poisson distributed spatio-temporal data. Supplementary materials for this article are available online, including a standardized description of the materials available for reproducing the work.

Bayesian↗
DOE OSTI2020

Potential Environmental Effects of Marine Renewable Energy Development—The State of the Science

Marine renewable energy (MRE) harnesses energy from the ocean and provides a low-carbon sustainable energy source for national grids and remote uses. The international MRE industry is in the early stages of development, focused largely on tidal and riverine turbines, and wave energy converters (WECs), to harness energy from tides, rivers, and waves, respectively. Although MRE supports climate change mitigation, there are concerns that MRE devices and systems could affect portions of the marine and river environments. The greatest concern for tidal and river turbines is the potential for animals to be injured or killed by collision with rotating blades. Other risks associated with MRE device operation include the potential for turbines and WECs to cause disruption from underwater noise emissions, generation of electromagnetic fields, changes in benthic and pelagic habitats, changes in oceanographic processes, and entanglement of large marine animals. The accumulated knowledge of interactions of MRE devices with animals and habitats to date is summarized here, along with a discussion of preferred management methods for encouraging MRE development in an environmentally responsible manner. As there are few devices in the water, understanding is gained largely from examining one to three MRE devices. This information indicates that there will be no significant effects on marine animals and habitats due to underwater noise from MRE devices or emissions of electromagnetic fields from cables, nor changes in benthic and pelagic habitats, or oceanographic systems. Ongoing research to understand potential collision risk of animals with turbine blades still shows significant uncertainty. There has been no significant field research undertaken on entanglement of large animals with mooring lines and cables associated with MRE devices.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2025

Flexibility Options: A Proposed Product for Managing Imbalance Risk

The presence of variable renewable energy resources with uncertain outputs in day-ahead electricity markets results in additional balancing needs in real-time. Addressing those needs cost-effectively and reliably within a competitive market with unbundled products is challenging as both the demand for and the availability of flexibility depends on day-ahead energy schedules. Existing approaches for reserve procurement usually rely either on oversimplified demand curves that do not consider how system conditions that particular day affect the value of flexibility, or on bilateral trading of hedging instruments that are not co-optimized with day-ahead schedules. This article proposes a new product, ‘Flexibility Options', to address these two limitations. The demand for this product is endogenously determined in the day-ahead market and it is met cost-effectively by considering real-time supply curves for product providers, which are co-optimized with the energy supply. As we illustrate with numerical examples and mathematical analysis, the product addresses the hedging needs of participants with imbalances cost-effectively, provides a less intermittent revenue stream for participants with flexible outputs, promotes value-driven pricing of flexibility, and ensures that the system operator is revenue-neutral. This article provides a comprehensive design that can be further tested and applied in large-scale systems.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Scalable Hardware-and-Human-in-the-Loop Grid-interactive Efficient Building Equipment Performance Dataset

This project developed a publicly available, high-fidelity dataset about the interactions among humans, homes, and heat pumps supporting grid interactive efficient buildings to balance demand on the grid with comfort for occupants. Laboratory measurements and simulations of the hardware capture the second-scale electric power dynamics of heat pumps providing grid services like load shifting and load shedding. Field measurements, behavior tracking, and qualitative surveys of people in their homes over multiple years—including experimentally adjusting the heating and cooling system to provide grid services—to capture the reciprocal effect of human behavior on grid services, and grid services on human comfort. Taken together, these data capture the complete Hardware and Human in the loop system for residential heat pumps, reducing large uncertainties in simulation for design, and models for control of heat pumps, and grid-interactive buildings.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Data-Driven Exploration of the Impact of Renewable Energy on Inter-Area Oscillations in the U.S. Eastern Interconnection

As increasing amounts of renewable energy (RE) resources are incorporated into the bulk-power grid, power system oscillations are expected to change. This work investigates how RE generation impacts the frequency and damping ratio (DR) of two dominant inter-area modes in the U.S. Eastern Interconnection (EI) using regularly updated estimates collected over a 12-month period. Quantile regression is used to derive the correlation between operating conditions and mode properties, and a bootstrap method is used to quantify the uncertainty associated with the correlation estimates. Results show that with an increase in system load, the frequency of a mode decreases and DR increases. Evidence that increasing RE generation results in an increase in frequency and decline in DR was found for one of the two modes studied. This work shows that increasing RE levels will impact the properties of inter-area oscillations in the EI, but it does not indicate the presence of immediate threats to grid stability. The outlined approach can be used to periodically assess changing mode properties as RE levels continue to grow and flag stability concerns before they become serious reliability threats.

Inter-area oscillation, mode meters, quantile regr↗
DOE OSTI2024

Measuring Life Cycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions From Water Resource Recovery Facilities Workshop Report

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Industrial Efficiency and Decarbonization Office hosted the Measuring Life Cycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions From Water Resource Recovery Facilities Workshop on Jan. 23–24, 2024, in Washington, D.C. The event brought together representatives from water resource recovery facilities, national laboratories, technology providers, academic researchers, industry consultants, and government agencies, to gather input on the challenges and opportunities in greenhouse gas measurement at water resource recovery facilities and how to effectively leverage future DOE efforts to reduce these uncertainties through potential measurement campaign(s). This report is a summary of the views expressed by individual participants during the workshop; it is not intended to represent DOE’s views or programmatic priorities.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Process design and techno-economic analysis for bio-based graphite and liquid hydrocarbons production from lignocellulosic biomass

The worldwide demand for graphite, as the main anode material for Li-ion batteries, is expected to double by 2028 since it supports the use of electricity, including transient renewable sources, for energy storage, sustainable mobility, and automation. However, the dependence on non-renewable and external resources jeopardizes the world supply chain. This study explores the technical and economic performance of transforming lignocellulosic biomass into biographite and fuel-grade hydrocarbons through pyrolysis bio-oil upgrading. According to simulation results, the total power demand for the biorefinery reached 10,784 kWh per tonne of biographite, of which 36 % can be supplied by the heat integration network and power plant. Sensitivity and risk analyses were conducted to evaluate the economics, with process yields identified as the most relevant indicators to the minimum selling price (MSP). The analysis revealed a promising cost-competitive range for biographite MSP against fossil-based graphite (medium quality synthetic graphite Chinese market price ~$\$$4.2/kg). Case D, which includes biofuels as a byproduct, presents the best metrics, reaching a MSP of $\$$3.3/kg of anode-grade biographite with a profit margin of 27 %. While including biofuels in the product slate provides the best economic performance, the uncertainty associated with the big capital investment makes its risk 13 % higher to attain an IRR >20 % than the case in which biographite is produced as a standalone product. Overall, this study demonstrates that integrated biorefineries can produce a cost-competitive bio-based anode material for Li-ion batteries.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗