Characterizing weather-related biophysical and financial risks in algal biofuel production
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The U.S. Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 supports biofuel production expansion through the 45Z clean fuel production tax credit, replacing previous 40A and 40B credits. This follows on the Renewable Fuel Standard from the Energy Policy Act of 2005 and its expansion in 2007. States like California, Oregon, and Washington also offer clean fuel credits. Meanwhile, federal agencies, including the U.S. Department of Energy, have advanced alternative fuel technologies through research and development funding. The surging interest in the biofuel industry has spurred the demand for biofuel supplies in the markets, although achieving profitability for advanced biofuels and low-carbon e-fuels remains challenging. This study aims to track U.S. alternative fuel production capacity expansion plans over the next 10 years and estimate impacts on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. By tracking built capacity and industry announcements of planned expansion, this study complements other studies which use models to predict changes in energy technologies and the associated GHG implications. Modeled projections of future technologies are often criticized for over or underestimating the cost and potential role of new technologies. The study focuses on sustainable aviation fuel, renewable diesel, ethanol, biodiesel, and renewable natural gas. Using facility-level data, we conducted a bottom-up analysis linking biofuel production pathways with corresponding pathways and parameterizations in the Argonne R&D GREET model. Results indicate that biofuel capacity could reach 3.8 exajoules in 2035, potentially reducing U.S. GHG emissions by 179 million tonnes, including the full life cycle. This corresponds to a 20% reduction in transportation and 5% in industry sector emissions by 2035, or a 3.6% reduction in economy-wide emissions. Overall, this study shows that while biofuel production capacity in the U.S. is expanding, the capacities remain limited compared to fuel demand. Uncertainty regarding the durability and extension of incentives may be dampening the pace of growth. Meanwhile, demonstrating the commercial potential for alternative fuels and climbing the learning curve for new technologies could lead to an increased pace of expansion in later years. This study offers insights for bioenergy stakeholders, highlighting biofuel technologies' contribution to U.S. energy system and emissions reduction over time based on producers' plans.
The Energy Sector is experiencing increasing impacts from severe weather and shifting climatic trends, as well as facing a changing political climate, adding uncertainty for stakeholders as they make short- and long-term planning investments. Climate changes such as prolonged extreme heat and drought (leading to wildfire spread, for example), sea level rise, and extreme storms are changing the ways that utilities operate. Energy infrastructure located in coastal or flood-prone areas faces inundation risks, such as damage to energy facilities. The use of renewable energy resources is increasing, requiring more information about their intermittency and spatial patterns. In light of these challenges, public and private stakeholders have collaborated to identify potential data sources, tools, and programmatic ideas. For example, utilities across the country are using cutting-edge technology and data to plan for and adapt to these changes. In the Federal Government, NASA has invested in preliminary work to identify needs and opportunities for satellite data in energy sector application, and the Department of Energy has similarly brought together stakeholders to understand the landscape of climate vulnerability and resilience for utilities and others. However, have these efforts improved community-scale resilience and adaptation efforts? Further, some communities are more vulnerable to climate change and infrastructure impacts than others. This session has two goals. First, panelists seek to share existing and ongoing efforts related to energy management. Second, the session seeks to engage with attendees via group knowledge exchange to connect national energy management efforts to local practice for increased community resilience.
The ocean contains a variety of renewable energy resources, little of which has been exploited. Here, we review both tidal range and tidal stream energy, with a focus on the resource, feedbacks, and environmental interactions. The review covers a wide range of timescales of relevance to tidal energy, from fortnightly (spring-neap) and semi-diurnal variability, down to array, and device-scale turbulence. When simulating the regional tidal energy resource, and to assess environmental impacts, it is necessary to account for feedbacks between the tidal array and the resource itself. We critically review various methods for simulating energy extraction, from insights gained through theoretical studies of “tidal fences” in idealized channels, to realistic three-dimensional model studies with complex geometry and arrays of turbines represented by momentum sinks and additional turbulence due to the presence of rotors and support structures. We discuss how variability can be reduced by developing multiple (aggregated) sites with a consideration of the enhanced phase diversity offered by exploiting less energetic tidal currents. This leads to future research questions that have not yet been explored in depth at first-generation tidal sites in relatively sheltered channels (e.g., the interaction of waves with currents). Such enhanced understanding of real sea conditions, including the effects of wind and waves, leads to our other identified primary future research direction—reduced uncertainties in turbulence predictions, including the development of realistic models that simulate the interaction between ambient turbulence and the turbulence resulting from multiple wakes, and changes to system-wide hydrodynamics, water quality, and sedimentation.
The frequency measurement and rate of change of frequency (RoCoF) calculations are important for active power, frequency control, and frequency-related protection in power system operations. With the rapid decrease in inertia under modern power systems, however, multiple power variations introduced by variable renewable energy bring large RoCoF and introduce oscillations in frequency measurements. To shed light on this issue, this article proposes a frequency measurement and RoCoF analysis technology, as well as the sensitivity analysis for the real low-inertia power grid. First, a real-world event in an island power grid is analyzed as an example, and an event numerical model is estimated considering four uncertainties, including event RoCoF, oscillation magnitude, oscillation frequency, and underfrequency load-shedding threshold. Then, a sensitivity analysis is performed using the Sobol indices method and quasi-Monte Carlo simulations to identify the dominant uncertainties based on the event model. Here, the dominant uncertainties are compared to provide a guideline for the frequency estimation algorithm selection under different event cases. This algorithm is compared with an enhanced zero-crossing algorithm and gives a 3.41% better RoCoF error rate. Finally, an experiment is conducted using universal grid analyzers to validate the simulation results and the theoretical analysis.
Surface thermal features, most notably hot springs and geysers are increasingly being recognized for their importance to ecosystems, indigenous cultures, and in some cases agriculture, recreation, and tourism. Geothermal project development poses a potential risk to these natural features but current regulatory requirements for assessing and managing these risks during exploration, permitting and monitoring are somewhat inconsistent and unpredictable across different geothermal fields. This has resulted in uncertainty and increases in exploration risk for geothermal energy developers that have led to costly project delays, cancellations, or hesitation to commit. Varying regulatory requirements may also influence public perception, fostering confusion, distrust and ultimately opposition to geothermal projects, further contributing to project delays or cancellations. At a time when there is an increasing urgency for reliable baseload clean energy, geothermal is a net-zero, renewable solution that additionally provides access to more equitable and environmentally just clean power. Continued integration of geothermal energy into the national energy roadmap can be facilitated through consistent and predictable permitting, providing regulators the framework they need, developers a clear path forward, and transparency that the public deserves. This project, currently in its beginning phases, seeks to address this important issue by providing a technical basis from which to build a preliminary protocol for assessing and managing potential impacts from new or existing geothermal energy projects to surface thermal features and their associated ecosystems. Development of this preliminary protocol will be informed by (1) a literature review of well-documented case studies in the western U.S. and New Zealand to understand the range of conditions that exemplify geothermal-surface thermal systems; (2) development of generic illustrative conceptual-numerical models to quantify, understand, and predict the first-order controls (e.g., pressure and permeability) on surface flows; and (3) additional independent and scientifically rigorous evaluations of geothermal-surface thermal system case studies from the Basin and Range Province that incorporate publicly available data as well as data provided by industry through data-sharing agreements. Learning from the successes of the process used to develop the Induced Seismicity Management Protocol (ISMP), we ultimately aim to use these initial efforts as a springboard for establishing a surface thermal feature management working group that will work collaboratively to finalize the protocol as well as co-create recommended best practices for implementation. We envision that the working group will primarily be composed of representatives from regulatory entities, government agencies, Tribes, academia, national laboratories, and industry, and will include early and regular engagement with community organizations and environmental groups. This will help ensure broad acceptance and implementation of the protocol, which will facilitate a more consistent, predictable, and standardized regulatory process, and help to ensure that geothermal energy continues to provide a reliable source of clean energy, and a pathway to achieving greater energy equity in the U.S.
Abstract. Floating wind turbines must withstand a unique and challenging set of loads from the wind and ocean environment. To de-risk development, accurate predictions of these loads are necessary. Uncertainty in modeling predictions leads to larger required safety factors, increasing project costs and the levelized cost of energy. Complex aero-hydro-elastic modeling tools use many input parameters to represent the wind, waves, current, aerodynamic loads, hydrodynamic loads, and structural properties. It is helpful to understand which of these parameters ultimately drives a design. In this work, an ultimate and fatigue-proxy load sensitivity analysis was performed with 35 different input parameters, using an elementary effects approach to identify the most influential parameters for a case study involving the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) 5 MW baseline wind turbine atop the OC4-DeepCwind semisubmersible during normal operation. The importance of each parameter was evaluated using 14 response quantities of interest across three operational wind speed conditions. The study concludes that turbulent wind velocity standard deviation is the parameter with the strongest sensitivity; this value is important not just for turbine loads, but also for the global system response. The system center of mass in the wind direction is found to have the highest impact on the system rotation and tower loads. The current velocity is found to be the most dominating parameter for the system global motion and consequently the mooring loads. All tested wind turbulence parameters in addition to the standard deviation are also found to be influential. Wave characteristics are influential for some fatigue-proxy loading but do not significantly impact the extreme ultimate loads in these operational load cases. The required number of random seeds for stochastic environmental conditions is considered to ensure that the sensitivities are due to the input parameters and not due to the seed. The required number of analysis points in the parameter space is identified so that the conclusions represent a global sensitivity. The results are specific to the platform, turbine, and choice of parameter ranges, but the demonstrated approach can be applied widely to guide focus in parameter uncertainty.
Solar and other renewable energy systems are optimized using geophysical parameters describing information about the solar resource and meteorological environments and how those environments may be changing in time. The Prediction of Worldwide Renewable Energy Resource (POWER) team at the NASA LaRC Research Center deployed its first version of the revitalized POWER geophysical parameter website that employs Esri Geographic Information System (GIS) tools. This web application provides access to both time series and climatological data sets spanning from a few days behind real-time back to the early 1980’s with a spatial resolution of 0.5 x 0.5 degree, thus extending over 30 years. The GIS tools enable, generate and store climatological averages using spatial queries and calculations in a spatial database resulting in greater accessibility to government agencies, industry and individuals. There is an API that provides data through a URL coding and can also invoked inside user software packages. Output data formats now include ASCII, CSV, geoTiff, JSON and .netCDF. Since May 2018, over 10.4 TB of data have been delivered to fulfill over 110 million data requests from 240,000 unique user IPs (https://power.larc.nasa.gov). This presentation provides an overview of this project and the current version of the new POWER web capabilities through to the end usage. Surface solar parameters are adapted from both the NASA/GEWEX (Global and Energy Water Cycle Exchange) SRB (Surface Radiation Budget) project and the CERES (Clouds and Earth’s Radiant Energy System) data products. The meteorological parameters are adapted from NASA’s MERRA-2 (Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications). We review uncertainty of various basic parameters using surface measurements. After the introduction, we specifically discuss various clusters of parameters for equator pointing tilted surfaces that provide for the estimation of optimal tilt angle by month and year. The discussion will emphasize a few examples of how solar and building engineers are using the data products. We will then preview the capabilities of Version 2 featuring examples of hourly solar and meteorological data products, customized user reports and expanded web mapping services from CERES data products. The web services provide a unique, expandable resource for renewable energy systems engineers to design, evaluate and optimize to environments worldwide.
A modern challenge in power engineering is to perform the dynamic security assessment (DSA) of grids that are 100% powered by inverter-based resources (IBRs). Addressing this challenge is difficult because: (i) the dispatch of IBRs can be uncertain as a result of the variability of renewable resources and (ii) they have hard current control limits that cannot be neglected, contrasting synchronous machines. To address this problem, this paper sets forth a framework to conduct DSA of bulk power systems that are 100% powered by grid-forming IBRs. Furthermore, the framework considers that IBR operational conditions are unknown but bounded by a zonotope which is also expressed as a polynomial vector for uncertainty propagation via Dormand–Prince integration. The framework is applied to modified versions of the WSCC 9-bus and IEEE 39-bus grids.
The present paper summarizes the current status of the activities of the on-going WPEC subgroup 46 which was the last significant initiative of Massimo before he passed away. The goal of WPEC/SG46 is to define, test and document a methodology to provide unambiguous feedback to the nuclear data evaluator community, based on the joint use of integral experiments and data assimilation techniques. Part of this effort resulted in a renewed analysis of the original Target Accuracy Requirement (TAR) exercise of WPEC/SG26, by adding more diverse nuclear systems and parameters, including reaction channels correlations and a coarser energy group structure; and making use of the progress made in the most recent evaluations in terms of both nuclear data and covariance matrices. The preliminary outcomes of the updated TAR exercise, documented by various groups worldwide are clear already: uncertainty reductions are required for many nuclide-reaction pairs in a variety of energy range if the target uncertainty requirements set by the industry are to be met, especially for k{sub eff}. The inclusion of correlations between the various reaction channels had a major impact on the magnitude of the required uncertainty reduction. Those uncertainty reductions are unlikely to be met by differential measurements alone. However, the selection of relevant integral experiment and a subsequent adjustment procedure may help meet these requirements. (authors)
A complete library of independent fission product yields including covariance information was generated by a sequential Bayesian methodology whose prior information consisted of independent fission product yields and branching ratios of the possible decay modes reported in the recently released ENDF/B-VIII.0 nuclear data library. The Bayesian procedure consisted in the adjustment of independent fission product yields to match the set of stable and long-lived cumulative yields reported in the ENDF/B-VIII.0 nuclear data library which, in this work, were considered as legacy values together with their uncertainties. According to the χ 2 -metric, the results obtained by this methodology show a systematic improvement in the agreement with legacy reported cumulative yields for the entire adjusted independent fission product yield library.
As clean energy ambitions have expanded, critically evaluating renewable energy supply has become increasingly important to the energy research community and stakeholders. This study examines the onshore wind resource potential for the conterminous United States and its sensitivity to siting constraints and turbine technology innovation. We compile localized regulatory information and use high-resolution data to present multiple siting regimes covering relatively constrained to unconstrained potentials. Our efforts reveal high sensitivity to these variables and sizable uncertainty in the overall wind energy resource potential. Specifically, we find that siting constraints may shift the total capacity available to commercial wind energy by 2.3–15.1 TW. Furthermore, our results illustrate that technology advancement could require larger setbacks from buildings and infrastructure, reducing the total available capacity potential by 20% relative to estimates using current technology, but that this reduction is largely offset by increased generation such that the net effect on generation is 1%. The observed sensitivity to and uncertainty resulting from the variables we analyze suggest there is value in continued study and development of increasingly sophisticated approaches to characterizing wind resource potential.
Following the recent Global Carbon Project (GCP) synthesis of the decadal methane (CH4) budget over 2000- 2012, we analyse here the same dataset with a focus on quasi-decadal and inter-annual variability in CH4 emissions. The GCP dataset integrates results from top-down studies (exploiting atmospheric observations within an atmospheric inverse-modelling framework) and bottom-up models (including process-based models for estimating land surface emissions and atmospheric chemistry), inventories of anthropogenic emissions, and data-driven approaches. The annual global methane emissions from top-down studies, which by construction match the observed methane growth rate within their uncertainties, all show an increase in total methane emissions over the period 2000-2012, but this increase is not linear over the 13 years. Despite differences between individual studies, the mean emission anomaly of the top-down ensemble shows no significant trend in total methane emissions over the period 2000-2006, during the plateau of atmospheric methane mole fractions, and also over the period 2008-2012, during the renewed atmospheric methane increase. However, the top-down ensemble mean produces an emission shift between 2006 and 2008, leading to 22 [16-32] Tg CH4 yr(exp -1) higher methane emissions over the period 2008-2012 compared to 2002-2006. This emission increase mostly originated from the tropics, with a smaller contribution from mid-latitudes and no significant change from boreal regions. The regional contributions remain uncertain in top-down studies. Tropical South America and South and East Asia seem to contribute the most to the emission increase in the tropics. However, these two regions have only limited atmospheric measurements and remain therefore poorly constrained. The sectorial partitioning of this emission increase between the periods 2002-2006 and 2008-2012 differs from one atmospheric inversion study to another. However, all top-down studies suggest smaller changes in fossil fuel emissions (from oil, gas, and coal industries) compared to the mean of the bottom-up inventories included in this study. This difference is partly driven by a smaller emission change in China from the top-down studies compared to the estimate in the Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGARv4.2) inventory, which should be revised to smaller values in a near future. We apply isotopic signatures to the emission changes estimated for individual studies based on five emission sectors and find that for six individual top-down studies (out of eight) the average isotopic signature of the emission changes is not consistent with the observed change in atmospheric 13CH4. However, the partitioning in emission change derived from the ensemble mean is consistent with this isotopic constraint. At the global scale, the top-down ensemble mean suggests that the dominant contribution to the resumed atmospheric CH4 growth after 2006 comes from microbial sources (more from agriculture and waste sectors than from natural wetlands), with an uncertain but smaller contribution from fossil CH4 emissions. In addition, a decrease in biomass burning emissions (in agreement with the biomass burning emission databases) makes the balance of sources consistent with atmospheric 13CH4 observations. In most of the top-down studies included here, OH concentrations are considered constant over the years (seasonal variations but without any inter-annual variability). As a result, the methane loss (in particular through OH oxidation) varies mainly through the change in methane concentrations and not its oxidants. For these reasons, changes in the methane loss could not be properly investigated in this study, although it may play a significant role in the recent atmospheric methane changes as briefly discussed at the end of the paper.
Solar radiation reaching photovoltaic (PV) modules on a 1-axis tracking system can be measured by reference cells or thermopiles. The former is often biased due to the reflection of solar radiation by the glass cover of the PV. The uncertainty can be moderated by applying a correction factor, as a function of solar incident angle and the refractive index of the glass, to the measurement. On the other hand, solar radiation on the inclined PV panels can be computed by transposition models using global horizontal irradiance (GHI) observations from thermopiles. This study examines the models and measurements to estimate solar radiation for 1-axis tracking modules at National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s (NREL’s) Solar Radiation Research Laboratory (SRRL). The 1-minute plane-of-array (POA) irradiances in 2019 are computed using the observed GHIs and a transposition model developed by Perez et al. The POA irradiances are compared with the observation by an IMT reference cell and a Kipp & Zonen CM Pyranometer 22 (CMP22) thermopile. For SRRL’s 1-axis tracking system with the annual solar energy of 2323.9 kWh/m2, the POA irradiance is overestimated by ~70 kWh/m2 using the transposition model. This bias is reduced by more than 50% using the IMT measurements calibrated by a correction factor for a PV surface of antireflection coated glass.
In the transition to low-carbon electricity, well-quantified estimates of carbon dynamics are needed to ensure that emissions reduction targets are achieved. Here we review the state of the science on carbon accounting for hydropower reservoirs and identify limitations and future solutions. Nearly all research on reservoir greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions has focused on individual reservoirs in isolation without considering their position in a freshwater network draining organic matter from upstream watersheds or the coordinated operation of reservoir cascades. Second, carbon inventories have extrapolated from a small, non-probabilistic sample of highly variable measurements of GHG emissions to unsampled reservoirs. A stronger statistical foundation is needed to estimate a global inventory and its uncertainty. Third, attribution to hydropower is based on ranks assigned to reservoir purpose. Instead, the physical influence of hydropower on carbon dynamics could be directly measured. Fourth, current carbon-accounting practices neglect time. A time-varying approach would quantify variation in emissions for electricity portfolios from changes in the fuel mix at different times and account for ancillary services, i.e., the ability to support the grid when variable renewables are not available without using natural gas. Reservoirs also sequester a significant portion of inflowing carbon in sediments and slow the carbon cycle by delaying the return of carbon to the atmosphere for decades to centuries. Together, these refinements would help to illuminate pathways toward meeting energy demand with the longest-possible delay in returning carbon to the atmosphere and without adding ancient sources to the pool of carbon cycling through aquatic ecosystems.
Solar radiation reaching photovoltaic (PV) modules on a 1-axis tracking system can be measured by reference cells or thermopiles. The former is often biased due to the reflection of solar radiation by the glass cover of the PV. The uncertainty can be moderated by applying a correction factor, as a function of solar incident angle and the refractive index of the glass, to the measurement. On the other hand, solar radiation on the inclined PV panels can be computed by transposition models using global horizontal irradiance (GHI) observations from thermopiles. This study examines the models and measurements to estimate solar radiation for 1-axis tracking modules at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s (NREL’s) Solar Radiation Research Laboratory (SRRL). The 1-minute plane-of-array (POA) irradiances from 2019 are computed using the observed GHIs and a transposition model developed by Perez et al. The POA irradiances are compared with the observation by an IMT reference cell and a Kipp & Zonen CM Pyranometer 22 (CMP22) thermopile. For the SRRL’s 1-axis tracking system with an annual solar energy of 2323.9 kWh/m 2 , the POA irradiance is overestimated by ~70 kWh/m 2 using the transposition model. This bias is reduced by more than 50% using the IMT measurements calibrated by a correction factor for a PV surface of antireflection coated glass.
As the electrical grid integrates more variable renewable energy sources such as wind and solar, the demand for distributed and flexible systems to address this increased variability becomes critical. Nuclear-driven microgrids provide a promising solution by offering stable generation to complement intermittent renewables, ensuring grid reliability and operating efficiency. This paper proposes a recurrent deep reinforcement learning framework for optimal economic dispatch in a nuclear-powered microgrid integrating renewable energy sources, small modular reactors, battery storage systems, and balance-of-plant dynamics. A three-agent control architecture is developed, where demand and renewable energy agents act as forecasters, and a reinforcement learning-based dispatch agent performs real-time energy allocation. A nonlinear programming formulation is first used to generate an optimal baseline for benchmarking. The proposed dispatch controller, based on Proximal Policy Optimization enhanced with Long Short-Term Memory networks, exploits temporal correlations in system dynamics by taking advantage of the time series used as inputs to improve policy robustness under uncertainty. Comparative analysis against established deep reinforcement learning methods, including Proximal Policy Optimization with a feedforward architecture, Soft Actor-Critic, and Twin Delayed Deep Deterministic Policy Gradient, demonstrates superior performance. Numerical results indicate that the proposed controller achieves a 0.39% cost reduction relative to the nonlinear programming benchmark and outperforms other learning-based methods by generating additional revenue of up to 0.35%. All reinforcement learning controllers compute dispatch actions in less than 0.3 s, resulting in a computational speedup of more than three orders of magnitude over the nonlinear programming baseline. The findings of this paper highlight their applicability for real-time operation and control in nuclear-integrated microgrids under volatile operating conditions.
Power towers, a type of concentrating power tower technology, use a large number of heliostats to concentrate sunlight and produce renewable energy. Optical errors of heliostats can cause drastic losses in the efficiency of power-tower plants. Accurately measuring optical errors is crucial to assessing and improving plant performance. This analysis discusses an innovate non-intrusive optical (NIO) approach to measure slope, canting, and tracking errors by detecting distortions in the reflected tower structure in heliostat images. Further in this work a sensitivity study is carefully conducted to determine the uncertainty requirements to allow the method to calculate slope errors with an accuracy of 0.25 mrad. Measurement uncertainty sources include camera resolution and position uncertainty, tower position uncertainty, and number of collected images. Each uncertainty source is investigated to determine its impact on the accuracy of the slope-error calculation. A combination of theoretical results and experimental results obtained from data collected on a heliostat at Sandia National Laboratories is used to determine and validate uncertainty requirements. The analysis shows that a measurement uncertainty of 0.25 mrad can be realized by realistically controlling uncertainty sources when implementing the NIO method. It demonstrates the superior performance of NIO in performing in-situ optical characterization.