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At least 325 records · Page 18

Plateau Phenomenon in Gradient Descent Training of RELU Networks: Explanation, Quantification, and Avoidance

The ability of neural networks to provide ‘best in class’ approximation across a wide range of applications is well-documented. Nevertheless, the powerful expressivity of neural networks comes to naught if one is unable to effectively train (choose) the parameters defining the network. In general, neural networks are trained by gradient descent type optimization methods,a stochastic variant thereof. In practice, such methods result in the loss function decreases rapidly at the beginning of training but then, after a relatively small number of steps, significantly slow down. The loss may even appear to stagnate over the period of a large number of epochs, only to then suddenly start to decrease fast again for no apparent reason. This so-called plateau phenomenon manifests itself in many learning tasks. The present work aims to identify and quantify the root causes of plateau phenomenon.analysis is carried out in the setting of univariate ReLU networks. No assumptions are made on the number of neurons relative to the number of training data, and our results hold for both the lazy and adaptive regimes. Here, the main findings are: plateaux correspond to periods during which activation patterns remain constant, where activation pattern refers to the number of data points that activate a given neuron; quantification of convergence of the gradient flow dynamics; and, characterization stationary points in terms solutions of local least squares regression lines over subsets of the training data. Based on these conclusions, we propose a new iterative training method, the Active Neuron Least Squares (ANLS), characterised by the explicit adjustment of the activation pattern at each step, which is designed to enable a quick exit from a plateau. Illustrative numerical examples are included throughout.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Field Testing of a Mixed Potential IoT Sensor Platform for Methane Quantification

Emissions of CH 4 from natural gas infrastructure must urgently be addressed to mitigate its effect on global climate. With hundreds of thousands of miles of pipeline in the US used to transport natural gas, current methods of surveying for leaks are inadequate. Mixed potential sensors are a low cost, field deployable technology for remote and continuous monitoring of natural gas infrastructure. We demonstrate for the first time a field trial of a mixed potential sensor device coupled with machine learning and internet-of-things platform at Colorado State University’s Methane Emissions Technology Evaluation Center (METEC). Emissions were detected from a simulated buried underground pipeline source. Sensor data was acquired and transmitted from the field test site to a remote cloud server. Quantification of concentration as a function of vertical distance is consistent with previously reported transport modelling efforts and experimental surveys of methane emissions by more sophisticated CH 4 analyzers.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Evaluating Probabilistic Deep Learning Methods for Uncertainty Quantification of Precipitation Bias Correction

Climate models often exhibit biases in their precipitation predictions, particularly underestimating high-intensity events and overestimating low precipitation. Deep learning approaches offer promising solutions, but their epistemic uncertainty associated with a deep learning–based bias correction method has not previously been quantified for reliable downstream climate impact studies. While methods for capturing the epistemic uncertainty in deep learning frameworks exist, there is currently no consensus on the best method. In this work, we compare three uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods—Deep Ensembles (DEns), Monte Carlo Dropout (MCD), and Flipout—by assessing the reliability of their uncertainty estimates using standard measures such as sharpness and calibration. These UQ methods are applied to an existing deep learning precipitation bias correction model known as UFNet: a coupled U-Net and fully connected neural network. The methods utilized to assess the models’ uncertainties are 1) calibration, which ensures that the expected probabilities of the model align with reality and 2) sharpness, which is a measure of the precision of the model’s probabilistic predictions. Of the three UQ methods evaluated, the DEns and MCD methods demonstrated the best-calibrated performance (expected calibration error of 0.36 and 0.35, respectively), compared to Flipout (0.58). In contrast, Flipout had the sharpest predictions and the highest metric performance in bias correcting precipitation—especially for higher-order moments such as kurtosis with a spatial correlation of 72% compared to 32% and 55% spatial correlation for DEns and MCD, respectively. Of the three UQ methods, MCD was found to be the most suitable method for UQ purposes based on its calibration, sharpness, and computational requirements.

Bayesian methods↗

An Interactive Spectral Analysis Tool for Chemical Identification and Quantification of Gas-Phase Species in Complex Spectra

A spectral analysis tool has been developed to interactively identify and quantify individual gas-phase species from complex infrared absorbance spectra obtained from laboratory or field data. The SpecQuant program has an intuitive graphical interface that accommodates both reference and experimental data with varying resolution and instrumental lineshape, as well as algorithms to readily align the wavenumber axis of a sample spectrum with the raster of a reference spectrum. Using a classical least squares model in conjunction with reference spectra such as those from the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) gas-phase infrared database or simulated spectra derived from the HITRAN line-by-line database, the mixing ratio of each identified species is determined along with its associated estimation error. After correcting the wavelength and intensity of the field data, SpecQuant displays the calculated mixing ratio versus the experimental data for each analyte along with the residual spectrum with any or all analyte fits subtracted for visual inspection of the fit and residuals. The software performance for multianalyte quantification was demonstrated using moderate resolution (0.5 cm –1 ) infrared spectra that were collected during the time-resolved infrared photolysis of methyl iodide.

Thompson, Christopher J.↗

Non-destructive quantification of anaerobic gut fungi and methanogens in co-culture reveals increased fungal growth rate and changes in metabolic flux relative to mono-culture

Abstract Background Quantification of individual species in microbial co-cultures and consortia is critical to understanding and designing communities with prescribed functions. However, it is difficult to physically separate species or measure species-specific attributes in most multi-species systems. Anaerobic gut fungi (AGF) (Neocallimastigomycetes) are native to the rumen of large herbivores, where they exist as minority members among a wealth of prokaryotes. AGF have significant biotechnological potential owing to their diverse repertoire of potent lignocellulose-degrading carbohydrate-active enzymes (CAZymes), which indirectly bolsters activity of other rumen microbes through metabolic exchange. While decades of literature suggest that polysaccharide degradation and AGF growth are accelerated in co-culture with prokaryotes, particularly methanogens, methods have not been available to measure concentrations of individual species in co-culture. New methods to disentangle the contributions of AGF and rumen prokaryotes are sorely needed to calculate AGF growth rates and metabolic fluxes to prove this hypothesis and understand its causality for predictable co-culture design. Results We present a simple, microplate-based method to measure AGF and methanogen concentrations in co-culture based on fluorescence and absorbance spectroscopies. Using samples of < 2% of the co-culture volume, we demonstrate significant increases in AGF growth rate and xylan and glucose degradation rates in co-culture with methanogens relative to mono-culture. Further, we calculate significant differences in AGF metabolic fluxes in co-culture relative to mono-culture, namely increased flux through the energy-generating hydrogenosome organelle. While calculated fluxes highlight uncertainties in AGF primary metabolism that preclude definitive explanations for this shift, our method will enable steady-state fluxomic experiments to probe AGF metabolism in greater detail. Conclusions The method we present to measure AGF and methanogen concentrations enables direct growth measurements and calculation of metabolic fluxes in co-culture. These metrics are critical to develop a quantitative understanding of interwoven rumen metabolism, as well as the impact of co-culture on polysaccharide degradation and metabolite production. The framework presented here can inspire new methods to probe systems beyond AGF and methanogens. Simple modifications to the method will likely extend its utility to co-cultures with more than two organisms or those grown on solid substrates to facilitate the design and deployment of microbial communities for bioproduction and beyond.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

RuBisCO activity assays: a simplified biochemical redox approach for in vitro quantification and an RNA sensor approach for in vivo monitoring

Abstract Background Ribulose-1,5-bisphosphate carboxylase/oxygenase (RuBisCO) is the most abundant soluble protein in nature. Extensive studies have been conducted for improving its activity in photosynthesis through approaches like protein engineering. Concurrently, multiple biochemical and radiolabeling assays have been developed for determining its activity. Although these existing assays yield reliable results, they require addition of multiple external components, rendering them less convenient and expensive. Therefore, in this study, we have developed two relatively cheaper, convenient, and easily reproducible assays for quantitative and qualitative estimation of RuBisCO activity. Results We simplified a contemporary NADH based spectrophotometric RuBisCO assay by using cyanobacterial cell lysate as the source for Calvin cycle enzymes. We analyzed the influence of inorganic carbon substrates, CO 2 and NaHCO 3 , and varying protein concentrations on RuBisCO activity. Ribulose-1,5-bisphosphate (RuBP) consumption rates for the cultures grown under 5% CO 2 were 5–7 times higher than the ones grown with 20 mM NaHCO 3 , at different protein concentrations. The difference could be due to the impaired activity of carbonic anhydrase in the cell lysate, which is required for the conversion of HCO 3 − to CO 2 . The highest RuBisCO activity of 2.13 nmol of NAD + / µg of Chl-a/ min was observed with 50 µg of protein and 5% CO 2 . Additionally, we developed a novel RNA-sensor based fluorescence assay that is based on the principle of tracking the kinetics of ATP hydrolysis to ADP during the conversion of 3-phosphoglycerate (3-PG) to 1,3-bisphosphoglycerate (1,3-BPG) in the Calvin cycle. Under in vitro conditions, the fluorometric assay exhibited ~ 3.4-fold slower reaction rate (0.37 min −1 ) than the biochemical assay when using 5% CO 2 . We also confirmed the in vivo application of this assay, where increase in the fluorescence was observed with the recombinant strain of Synechocystis sp. PCC 6803 (SSL142) expressing the ADP-specific RNA sensor, compared to the WT. In addition, SSL142 exhibited three-fold higher fluorescence when supplemented with 20 mM NaHCO 3 as compared to the cells that were grown without NaHCO 3 supplementation. Conclusions Overall, we have developed a simplified biochemical assay for monitoring RuBisCO activity and demonstrated that it can provide reliable results as compared to the prior literature. Furthermore, the biochemical assay using 5% CO 2 (100% relative activity) provided faster RuBP consumption rate compared to the biochemical assay utilizing 20 mM NaHCO 3 (30.70% relative activity) and the in vitro fluorometric assay using 5% CO 2 (29.64% relative activity). Therefore, the absorbance-based biochemical assay using 5% CO 2 or higher would be suitable for in vitro quantification of the RuBisCO activity. On the other hand, the RNA-sensor based in vivo fluorometric assay can be applied for qualitative analysis and be used for high-throughput screening of RuBisCO variants. As RuBisCO is an enzyme shared amongst all the photoautotrophs, the assays developed in this study can easily be extended for analyzing the RuBisCO activities even in microalgae and higher plants.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Rapid quantification of whole seed fatty acid amount, composition, and shape phenotypes from diverse oilseed species with large differences in seed size

Seed oils are widely used in the food, biofuel, and industrial feedstock industries, with their utility and value determined by total oil content and fatty acid composition. Current high throughput seed oil analysis methods either lack accuracy in total fatty acid profiling or require extensive labor for lipid extraction prior to derivatization to fatty acid methyl esters (FAME) and quantification by gas chromatography (GC). Alternatively, direct whole seed FAME production methods have been developed for the very small seeds in the model species Arabidopsis thaliana but these have generally not been adapted to larger seeds of most oilseed crops. High-throughput direct whole seed FAME production methods were optimized for seeds up to 5 mg each utilizing acid-catalyzed esterification. For the oilseed species Camelina sativa, Thlaspi avernse (pennycress), Cuphea viscosissima, and Brassica napus (var. Canola), the total seed fatty acid content and composition from direct seed esterification to FAME matched that of lipid extract derivatization demonstrating the accuracy of the methods. In combination with seed phenotyping using GridFree, this approach enabled the development of a rapid pipeline for simultaneous seed weight, count, size/shape phenotyping, and oil analysis. For the larger and tougher seeds produced by Limnanthes alba (Meadowfoam) and Cannabis sativa L. (hemp) the whole seed acid-based method proved insufficient, and prior laborious homogenization of seeds was required. Therefore, a rapid one-tube bead homogenization and base catalyzed-esterification method was developed. Base-derived fatty acid esterification cannot derivatize free fatty acids leading to slightly lower total seed fatty acid than acid-catalyzed methods, however the seed oil content and fatty acid composition that is valuable for screening large numbers of samples in research populations was accurately measured. New rapid whole seed fatty acid esterification and phenotyping protocols were developed to accurately assess oilseed lipid content. These methods are particularly valuable in oilseed research, breeding, and engineering applications where efficient analysis of large numbers of samples and accurate oil fatty acid profiling is essential. While having been developed for current and emerging oilseed crops, these methods also provide a foundation from which protocols might be established for new and emerging crop species.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Data for "Enhancing 2-Pyrone Synthase Efficiency by High-Throughput Mass-Spectrometric Quantification and In Vitro/In Vivo Catalytic Performance Correlation"

Engineering efficient biocatalysts is essential for metabolic engineering to produce valuable bioproducts from renewable resources. However, due to the complexity of cellular metabolic networks, it is challenging to translate success in vitro into high performance in cells. To meet such a challenge, an accurate and efficient quantification method is necessary to screen a large set of mutants from complex cell culture and a careful correlation between the catalysis parameters in vitro and performance in cells is required. In this study, we employed a mass-spectrometry based high-throughput quantitative method to screen new mutants of 2-pyrone synthase (2PS) for triacetic acid lactone (TAL) biosynthesis through directed evolution in E. coli. From the process, we discovered two mutants with the highest improvement (46 fold) in titer and the fastest kcat (44 fold) over the wild type 2PS, respectively, among those reported in the literature. A careful examination of the correlation between intracellular substrate concentration, Michaelis-Menten parameters and TAL titer for these two mutants reveals that a fast reaction rate under limiting intracellular substrate concentrations is important for in-cell biocatalysis. Such properties can be tuned by protein engineering and synthetic biology to adopt these engineered proteins for the maximum activities in different intracellular environments.

catalysis↗

Impact of nuclear data covariance libraries on uncertainty quantification of sodium cooled fast reactor simulation

Uncertainty quantification in core modelling to assess reactor performance is a regular practice to identify design safety limits. Best-estimate plus uncertainty (BEPU) methods are commonly used to propagate uncertainties to core responses from input parameters, characterized by variance-covariance libraries. This study evaluates the impact of different covariance libraries on the uncertainty associated with core safety parameters and their propagation through reactor transient modelling for a metallic core (ABR-1000). The COMAC-1.0, COMMARA-2.0, and COMMARA-2.1 covariance libraries are used to propagate nuclear data uncertainties to neutron feedback coefficients using the Generalized Perturbation Theory, then through transient safety analyses to establish the confidence interval for safety performance of the reactor using stochastic sampling. The considered transients include Unprotected Transient Over Power and Unprotected Loss Of Flow. Most influential nuclide and reaction pairs in different variance-covariance libraries are identified and their impact on the uncertainty of safety parameters are evaluated. Significant differences were observed between uncertainties from COMAC compared to COMMARA libraries. Uncertainties from COMMARA libraries were consistently larger than COMAC for all cases. For structure, coolant density feedback coefficients and control rod worth, total nuclear data uncertainties were approximately 50% larger for COMMARA than COMAC. Differences were also observed in identification of top contributors of uncertainty in terms of reaction-cross sections. For instance, largest contribution to total uncertainty of radial expansion coefficient from COMMARA-2.0 and 2.1 originates from Na{sup 23} P1 Elastic cross section (0.81%) but from Pu{sup 239} Fission (0.53%) with COM C-1.0. Such differences are evaluated in this research for all quantities of interest. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

A tailored fast thioacidolysis method incorporating multi-reaction monitoring mode of GC-MS for higher sensitivity on lignin monomer quantification

Abstract Thioacidolysis is widely used for lignin structural characterization by cleaving β-aryl ethers to release syringyl (S), guaiacyl (G), and p -hydroxyphenyl (H) monomers followed by GC analysis. However, the traditional thioacidolysis method requires tedious extraction steps with chlorinated solvent underlying harmful to health, limiting its efficiency and application. Herein, an improved thioacidolysis method with high sensitivity for the quantitation of lignin-derived monomers was developed. The improved protocol used a quick, streamlined procedure to recover the monomeric products using ethyl acetate as extracting solvent and MS detector in multi-reaction monitoring mode to enhance its ability to detect extremely low concentration (0.1 ppb with signal-to-noise higher than 2) of monomeric products. Additionally, a fast GC program was established to speed up the GC quantitation. Several representative lignocellulose samples, including gymnosperm, angiosperm, and poaceae, were used to test this tailored method. The results demonstrated that the ratios of lignin monomer compositions determined by this method were consistent with that of traditional procedure despite the slightly higher monomer yields measured. More importantly, this method uses non-chlorinated solvent for microscale extraction and requires no evaporation step for workup, which is a green and efficient way for the quantification of lignin monomer compositions.

Forestry↗

Data and scripts from: “Denoising autoencoder for reconstructing sensor observation data and predicting evapotranspiration: noisy and missing values repair and uncertainty quantification”

This data package includes data and scripts from the manuscript “Denoising autoencoder for reconstructing sensor observation data and predicting evapotranspiration: noisy and missing values repair and uncertainty quantification”.The study addressed common challenges faced in environmental sensing and modeling, including uncertain input data, missing sensor observations, and high-dimensional datasets with interrelated but redundant variables. Point-scaled meteorological and soil sensor observations were perturbed with noises and missing values, and denoising autoencoder (DAE) neural networks were developed to reconstruct the perturbed data and further predict evapotranspiration. This study concluded that (1) the reconstruction quality of each variable depends on its cross-correlation and alignment to the underlying data structure, (2) uncertainties from the models were overall stronger than those from the data corruption, and (3) there was a tradeoff between reducing bias and reducing variance when evaluating the uncertainty of the machine learning models.This package includes:(1) Four ipython scripts (.ipynb): “DAE_train.ipynb” trains and evaluates DAE neural networks, “DAE_predict.ipynb” makes predictions from the trained DAE models, “ET_train.ipynb” trains and evaluates ET prediction neural networks, and “ET_predict.ipynb” makes predictions from trained ET models.(2) One python file (.py): “methods.py” includes all user-defined functions and python codes used in the ipython scripts.(3) A “sub_models” folder that includes five trained DAE neural networks (in pytorch format, .pt), which could be used to ingest input data before being fed to the downstream ET models in ‘ET_train.ipynb” or ‘ET_predict.ipynb’.(4) Two data files (.csv). Daily meteorological, vegetation, and soil data is in “df_data.csv”, where “df_meta.csv” contains the location and time information of “df_data.csv”. Each row (index) in “df_meta.csv” corresponds to each row in “df_data.csv”. These data files are formatted to follow the data structure requirements and be directly used in the ipython scripts, and they have been shuffled chronologically to train machine learning models. The meteorological and soil data was collected using point sensors between 2019-2023 at(4.a) Three shrub-dominated field sites in East River, Colorado (named “ph1”, “ph2” and “sg5” in “df_meta.csv”, where “ph1” and “ph2” were located at PumpHouse Hillslopes, and “sg5” was at Snodgrass Mountain meadow) and(4.b) One outdoor, mesoscale, and herbaceous-dominated experiment in Berkeley, California (named “tb” in “df_meta.csv”, short for Smartsoils Testbed at Lawrence Berkeley National Lab).- See "df_data_dd.csv" and "df_meta_dd.csv" for variable descriptions and the Methods section for additional data processing steps. See "flmd.csv" and "README.txt" for brief file descriptions.- All ipython scripts and python files are written in and require PYTHON language software.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

¬¬Integration of Quantification of Margins and Uncertainties Methodology into Parallel Discrete Event Simulator Framework

Parallel Discrete Events Simulation (PDES) is becoming increasingly important to lab efforts in security and intelligence. It is used to model complex asynchronous systems such as computer networks, satellite systems, vehicular traffic, and human performance. Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) techniques have become a mainstay of Verification and Validation (V&V) efforts on physics simulations. However, PDES models are very different from traditional physics simulations, and research into UQ techniques for PDES is in its infancy. It is not clear which traditional UQ techniques can be applied to PDES, or what new techniques will need to be developed. The goal of this project was to identify existing UQ techniques that can be applied to PDES, and to develop new techniques as necessary. The project implemented or developed techniques to handle issues that do not appear in traditional physics simulations, but are common among PDES, including sampling techniques for high-dimensional homogenous inputs, response surfaces for high-variance heteroskedastic output, and characterization of skewed output distributions. These are foundational UQ techniques that must be used in any complete UQ analysis (Tong 2018).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Dakota, A Multilevel Parallel Object-Oriented Framework for Design Optimization Parameter Estimation Uncertainty Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis: Version 6.12 User's Manual

The Dakota toolkit provides a flexible and extensible interface between simulation codes and iterative analysis methods. Dakota contains algorithms for optimization with gradient and nongradient-based methods; uncertainty quantification with sampling, reliability, and stochastic expansion methods; parameter estimation with nonlinear least squares methods; and sensitivity/variance analysis with design of experiments and parameter study methods. These capabilities may be used on their own or as components within advanced strategies such as surrogate-based optimization, mixed integer nonlinear programming, or optimization under uncertainty. By employing object-oriented design to implement abstractions of the key components required for iterative systems analyses, the Dakota toolkit provides a flexible and extensible problem-solving environment for design and performance analysis of computational models on high performance computers. This report serves as a user's manual for the Dakota software and provides capability overviews and procedures for software execution, as well as a variety of example studies.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Learning Hidden Structure in Multi-Fidelity Information Sources for Efficient Uncertainty Quantification (LDRD 218317)

This report summarizes the work done under the Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project entitled "Learning Hidden Structure in Multi-Fidelity Information Sources for Efficient Uncertainty Quantification". In this project we investigated multi-fidelity strategies for fusing data from information sources of varying cost and accuracy. Most existing strategies exploit hierarchical relationships between models, for example that occur when different models are generated by refining a numerical discretization parameter. In this work we focused on encoding the relationships between information sources using directed acyclic graphs. The multi-fidelity networks can have general structure and represent a significantly greater variety of modeling relationships than recursive networks used in the current state literature. Numerical results show that a non-hierarchical multi-fidelity Monte Carlo strategy can reduce the cost of estimating uncertainty in predictions of a model of plasma expanding in a vacuum by almost two orders of magnitude.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Uncertainty Quantification in Scientific ML

The intricate interactions between data sampling, model selection and the inherent randomness in complex systems strongly emphasize the need for a rigorous characterization of ML algorithms. In conventional statistics, uncertainty quantification (UQ) provides this characterization by measuring how accurately a model reflects the physical reality and by studying the impact of different error sources on the prediction.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Development of Explainable, Knowledge-Guided AI Models to Enhance the E3SM Land Model Development and Uncertainty Quantification

Focal Area(s): (2)Predictive modeling using AI techniques and AI-derived model components; use of AI and other tools to design a prediction system comprising of a hierarchy of models. (3) Insight gleaned from complex data (both observed and simulated) using AI, big data analytics, and other advanced methods, including explainable AI and physics- or knowledge- guided AI. Science Challenge: The Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) is a fully coupled, state-of-the-science Earth system model that uses code optimized for DOE's advanced computers to address the most critical scientific questions facing our nation and society (Golaz et al., 2019). The E3SM Land model (ELM) is designed to understand how the changes in terrestrial land surfaces will interact with other Earth system components and has been used to understand hydrologic cycles, biogeophysics, and ecosystem dynamics. In spite of great successes, the ELM has several known issues that restrain rapid improvements. For example, the ELM uses equilibrium models to simulate dynamic land-climate interactions and it requires long model spin-up time to identify suitable initial conditions for transient simulations. The ELM lacks built-in uncertainty mechanisms that can improve the robustness of model predictions. The ELM is a holistic, deterministic model system with a rigid design, and in many situations, it is hard to modify the ELM system to incorporate new theory/hypothesis and new data across scales to address emerging science problems (such as predicting the impacts of water cycle extremes). In addition, The ELM is technically optimized for traditional CPU-centric computers and it cannot fully utilize the current and incoming leadership computers for model simulations and uncertainty quantification (UQ). The success of artificial intelligence (AI) has inspired scientists to use AI models to discover intrinsic features from simulation data (Chattopadhyay et al., 2020) and observational data (Reichstein et al., 2019) to gain further process understanding of Earth science problems. However, autonomous AI model training through deep learning usually requires a huge amount of annotated data. To overcome the limitations from the data and computing resources, knowledge-guided AI models are necessary where human-knowledge is ingested in model construction (Banino et al., 2018) and training process (Silver et al., 2016) for efficient learning. Herein, we present a new way that leverages the process understanding from the ELM to guide AI model development for the ELM enhancement and UQ. We hope this study can inspire further Earth and environmental system model developments and transformations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Early detection and uncertainty quantification of rapid sea-level rise from Antarctica

Focal Areas: (i) classification and/or anomaly detection methods applied towards identifying critical climate system thresholds; improved emulator design for (ii) reducing computational costs relative to full-physics models and (iii) improved uncertainty quantification workflows. Rationale: The evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet in response to climate change remains the single largest uncertainty in projecting future sea-level rise (SLR), with risk-averse projections for 2100 spanning between zero and a half meter. During the past decade, DOE has made substantial investments in new ice sheet and Earth system models needed to improve both understanding and predictive capability in this area. Yet major challenges remain, including better understanding when and under what circumstances significant increases in SLR from Antarctica may be initiated and better quantifying uncertainties in model-based SLR projections. Here, we discuss the potential for transformative advances in these areas through the application of machine learning and artificial intelligence (ML and AI, respectively).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗