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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 325 records · Page 18
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2020

Impacts of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming above pre-industrial on potential winter wheat production of China

Keeping global temperatures below 2.0 °C above pre-industrial condition and pursuing efforts toward the more ambitious 1.5 °C goal in the late 21st century was the main target from the Paris Agreement in 2015. Here we assessed the likely challenges for the China’s winter wheat production under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C increase of global temperature, with four wheat crop models (CERES-Wheat, Nwheat, WheatGrow, and APSIM-Wheat) and the latest climate projections from the Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts project (HAPPI). Instead of using average “winter type” wheat cultivar, and same management and soil inputs for whole region, location-specific winter wheat cultivars with local agronomic information were calibrated for each of the representative wheat growing area of China, allowing a better spatial agronomic representation of the whole wheat planting area. The mean growing season temperature (GST) during the winter wheat vegetative stage was projected to increase by 0.6 to 1.4 °C for the 1.5 °C scenario, and 0.9 to 1.8 °C for the 2.0 °C scenario, while during the reproductive stage was decreased between 0 and 0.9 °C for the 1.5 °C scenario and -0.3 and 1.1 °C for the 2.0 °C scenario. Growing season duration (GSD) for the whole period was shortened by 6 to 15 days for the 1.5 °C scenario and 8 to 18 days for the 2.0 °C scenario, as a result of higher GST under global warming. Increase in GST and decrease in GSD was more obvious in the Southwest Subregion (SWS) than subregions in the north. The shortening GSD for the whole wheat growth period was mostly from the shortening vegetative period, as no appreciable difference in number of days from anthesis to maturity was found for the whole regions. Although there is variability among models, the indication is that wheat yields were projected to increase in the North Subregion (NS), the Huang-Huai Subregion (HHS), and the Middle-lower Researches of Yangzi River Subregion (MYS), but to decrease in the SWS under two warming scenarios. The effects of elevated CO2 concentration were mostly beneficial and tended to offset the negative impacts of increasing temperature at both global warming scenarios, with a rate of 7-14% yield increase per 100-ppm, except for locations with GST of baseline higher than 11 °C. Aggregating to regional wheat production, the total winter wheat production of China was projected to increase by 2.8% (1.6% to 3.0%, 25th percentile to 75th percentile) and 8.3% (7.0% to 9.6%, 25th percentile to 75th percentile) under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C scenarios, and most of increase was observed in the north subregions due to the largest wheat planting area. Our results will lay the foundation for developing adaptation strategies to future climate change to ensure China and global wheat supply and food security.

Winter wheat↗
NASA NTRS2002

Space Interferometry Mission (SIM): Overview and current status

The Space Interferometry Mission (SIM) will be the first in-space, long-baseline Michelson Stellar Interferometer. SIM will perform precision astrometry at the micro-arcsecond accuracy level, which will be used to characterize planetary systems around stars within about ten parsecs of Earth and address a number of other key astrophysics projects. This paper provides a broad overview of the SIM Mission. Topics covered include: the science objectives, key top level requirements, how the mission will be implemented (technical and programmatic), technology development status, who the key players are in the SIM development, an assessment of where the project is today, and prognosis for the future.

interferometer↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Usage-based Lifing of Lithium-Ion Battery with HybridPhysics-Informed Neural Networks

Lithium-ion batteries are commonly used to power unmanned aircraft vehicles (UAVs).The ability to model and forecast the remaining useful life of these batteries enables UAV reliability assurance. Building accurate models for battery state of charge and state of health based on first principles is challenging due to the complex electrochemistry that governs battery operations and computational complexity required to solve them. Therefore, reduced order models are often used due to their ability to capture the overall battery discharge. Un-fortunately, these simplifications lead to residual discrepancy between model predictions and observed data. In this paper, we present a hybrid modeling approach merging reduced-order models and neural networks. In this approach, while most of the input-output relationship is captured by Nernst and Butler-Volmer equations, data-driven kernels reduce the gap between predictions and observations. We validate our approach using data publicly available through the NASA Prognostics Center of Excellence repository. Results showed that our hybrid battery prognosis model can be successfully calibrated, even with a limited number of observations.

Lithium-ion Battery↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Enabling in-time Prognostics with Surrogate Modeling through Physics-enhanced Dynamic Mode Decomposition Method

Computational models provide essential quantitative tools for assessing and predicting the health and performance of physical systems. However, high-fidelity models are rarely used in real-time operations or large optimization loops, due to their time-intensive nature. A common approach to improving computational efficiency of prognosis is to employ surrogate models. Such models can significantly decrease computation time for some accuracy loss. In this context, use of Dynamic Mode Decomposition (DMD) is proposed to generate surrogate models for lithium-ion (Li-ion) battery discharge. DMD has been suggested and used successfully in the area of fluid dynamics for over a decade, but it has not been applied to the PHM domain, where far-ahead prediction of nonlinear behavior is crucial to propagate faults or predict Remaining Useful Life (RUL). For Li-ion battery health management, the standard application of DMD using only the observable quantities of interest was unable to capture the nonlinear discharge of batteries exhibited in lab testing. The Koopman theory, however, provides a mechanism to tradeoff low dimensional nonlinear models with high-dimensional linear ones in a DMD framework, by augmenting nonlinear state variables into the system representation. In this way, DMD allows for configurable simulation accuracy dependent on the dimensionality of the Koopman operator. For battery health management, we augmented the observable variables with the hidden states of a higher-fidelity physics model to build the DMD surrogate. In comparison to a high-fidelity model, the surrogate improved computational efficiency with only a minimal loss of accuracy, and enabled long-term prognostics horizons. A generalized method for this was implemented in the prog models python package.

prognostics and health management↗
NASA NTRS2025

State-of-the-Art Small Spacecraft Technology

The objective of this report is to assess and provide an overview of the state of the art in small spacecraft technologies for use by mission designers, project managers, technologists, and students, connecting current small spacecraft missions to available technologies. This report focuses on the spacecraft system in its entirety, provides current best practices for integration and key considerations for the reader where possible, and presents devices from publicly available sources for each specific spacecraft subsystem. This report is a survey of small spacecraft technologies sourced from open literature; it is not an original source. In addition, this report only considers literature in the public domain. Information presented in this report is limited to SmallSat technology that is publicly available as of September 30, 2024. It does not include information on instrumentation, science payloads, or advances or developments that have not been publicly disclosed. Commonly used sources for data include manufacturer data sheets, press releases, conference papers, journal papers, public filings with government agencies, news articles, presentations, the compendium of databases accessed via NASA’s Small Spacecraft Systems Virtual Institute (S3VI) Information Search, and engagement with companies. Data not appropriate for public dissemination, such as proprietary, export controlled, or otherwise restricted data, are not considered. We encourage the SmallSat community to publish mission outcomes and technology development milestones in publicly available conference papers, press releases, or company websites so they can be reflected in future editions of this report. This report is funded by NASA’s Space Technology Mission Directorate (STMD). It was first commissioned by the Small Spacecraft Technology (SST) program within NASA’s STMD in mid2012 in response to the rapid growth in interest in using small spacecraft for low-Earth orbit, lowcost missions. The report was subsequently updated in 2015, 2018, 2020, 2021, 2022, and 2023 to capture SmallSat technology growth and maturation. In addition to reporting currently available state-of-the-art technologies that have achieved Technology Readiness Level (TRL) 5 or above, a prognosis is provided describing technologies as "on the horizon" if they are being considered for future application.

Sasha V Weston↗
DOE OSTI2021

Enhancing the Operational Resilience of Advanced Reactors with Digital Twins by Recurrent Neural Networks

Because of a lack of operation data during abnormal and accident scenarios, along with the existence of uncertainty in the evaluation model for transient and accident analysis, the established abnormal and emergency operating procedures can be biased in characterizing the reactor states and ensuring operational resilience. To improve state awareness and ensure operational flexibility for minimizing effects on the system due to anomaly, digital twin (DT) technology is suggested to support operator's decision-making by effectively extracting and using knowledge of the current and future plant states from the knowledge base. To demonstrate DT's capability for recovering the complete states of reactors and for predicting the future reactor behaviors, this paper develops and assesses both the diagnosis and prognosis DTs in a nearly autonomous management and control system for an Experimental Breeder Reactor-II simulator during different loss-of-flow scenarios.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Component Reliability R&D

A review of the work done on the hydrogen Component Reliability R&D project in the last year. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL) Hydrogen Safety Research and Development (HSR&D) program in collaboration with the University of Maryland's Systems Risk and Reliability Analysis Laboratory (SyRRA) are working to improve reliability and reduce risk in hydrogen systems through the use of use quantitative data on component leaks and failures, together with Prognosis and Health Management (PHM), and Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA).

component↗
DOE OSTI2022

Bearing Fault Detection on Wind Turbine Gearbox Vibrations Using Generalized Likelihood Ratio-Based Indicators: Preprint

Studies in condition monitoring literature often aim to detect rolling element bearing faults because they have one of the biggest shares among defects in turbo machinery. Accordingly, several prognosis and diagnosis methods have been devised to identify fault signatures from vibration signals. The underlying idea behind traditional indicators often revolves around tracking both cyclostationarity and abnormal impulses in the vibration signals without distinguishing the two. A recently proposed method to capture the rolling element bearing degradation lays out the groundwork for new indicator families utilizing generalized likelihood ratio test. This novel approach exploits the cyclostationarity and the impulsiveness of vibration signals independently in order to estimate the most suitable indicators for a given fault. However, the method has yet to be tested on complex experimental vibration signals such as those of a wind turbine gearbox. In this study, the approach is applied to the NREL Wind Turbine Gearbox Condition Monitoring Round Robin Study data set for bearing fault detection purposes. The data set is measured on an experimental test rig of a wind turbine gearbox, hence the complexity of the vibration signals is similar to a real case. Furthermore, the new indicators are also tested with signals that carry multiple fault signatures. The outcome demonstrates that the proposed method is capable of distinguishing between healthy and damaged vibration signals measured on a complex wind turbine gearbox.

condition monitoring↗
DOE OSTI2023

Wind Turbine Drivetrain Reliability Research - Gearbox Bearing Axial Cracking Failure Mode Example

The U.S. Department of Energy's National Renewable Energy Laboratory and Argonne National Laboratory have been conducting wind turbine drivetrain (formerly gearbox) reliability research for many years. Although the drivetrain focus has not changed, detailed projects are adjusted every few years based on dynamic needs seen in the field across the wind industry. This webinar will walk through the research methodology by using wind turbine gearbox bearing axial cracking failure mode as an example. The detailed steps include: 1) top failure mode identification based on actual failure data collected from project partners, 2) bench-top testing to identify possible contributing factors and formulate a damage metric, 3) physics domain modeling and validation through testing, 4) reliability assessment and prognosis based on the physics domain model and data domain inputs, and further enhancement through machine learning algorithms, using actual wind plant operational and failure event data. Hopefully, the presented work is of interest to the IISE community, and some members can apply their expertise to wind turbine and plant applications, helping enhance wind power generation technology advancement and its broader deployment.

axial cracking↗
DOE OSTI2020

On the Formalization of Development and Assessment Process for Digital Twins in the Nearly Autonomous Management and Control System

In recent years, the autonomous control system has been encouraged in advanced reactors for restoring economic viability, simplifying the operation and maintenance, and enabling remote-site power generations [1]. Since the reactor is expected to be operated for a long period of time with a limited number of individuals onsite, it is recommended that the autonomous control system should have access to very realistic models of the state of processes in the whole lifecycle, together with these process behaviors in interaction with their environment in the real world. As a result, digital twin (DT) technology is suggested in autonomous control systems. DT is defined as a digital representation of a physical object or system, which contains a record for the histories of loads, operation and maintenance status, predictions for the near-term transient of important state variables, and decision-making process [2]. Since machine learning (ML) can recognize patterns within a complex system in real-time applications, it has been used to build DTs in the autonomous control systems for advanced reactors. Meanwhile, due to the rareness of operation data in accident scenarios, the development and assessment of DTs is expected to be mainly driven by simulations. Although the capability and feasibility of ML-based DTs are recognized in improving the safety and efficiency of reactor control, a major concern from the regulatory commission and the nuclear industry is whether the information from a DT is developed and assessed in accordance with expectation and requirements by the target decision. Such concerns not only affect the acceptance criteria for DTs, but also values that can be extracted from DTs and autonomous control system during operations. Inspired by the success of formal methods in improving the reliability and robustness of computer programming and software development, it is suggested that the development and assessment process (DAP) for both separate DTs and integral control system should be formalized in a transparent, consistent, and improvable manner. In this study, a digital-twin development and assessment process (DT-DAP) is proposed by adapting the evaluation model development and assessment process (EMDAP) [3] to requirements by the autonomous control system, ML algorithms, and DT technology. To demonstrate the framework, a baseline nearly autonomous management and control (NAMAC) system with ML-based DTs for diagnosis and prognosis is developed and assessed based on the framework. It is found that with selected testing methods and techniques, the DT-DAP can help identify errors in DTs and NAMAC which would otherwise be left unverified. Meanwhile, it is found that the DT-DAP can improve the DTs and NAMAC by continuously learning and iterating through different elements.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Development of Digital Twin-Informed Predictive Maintenance for Critical Components in Advanced Reactors

Small modular reactors (SMRs) and microreactors, along with other advanced reactor (AR) technologies, are key to the future of nuclear energy. For these systems to achieve low operating costs, high reliability, and flexibility across applications, their operation and maintenance must be optimized. Digital twin (DT) technology is one of the technologies that enables real-time (or faster than real-time) monitoring and prognosis of critical components which are vital for operational efficiency, low costs, and enhanced safety of ARs, accelerating their deployment. DT technology provides dynamic virtual representation of physical assets by integrating real-time data, physics-based models, and advanced analytics, which is critical to optimizing the performance of the entire energy system throughout the life cycle. DTs empower engineers and operators to virtually explore different scenarios, configurations, and control strategies, allowing for the identification of optimal solutions that maximize reactor efficiency, safety, and economics.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Differential credibility assessment for statistical downscaling

Climate science is increasingly using (i) ensembles of climate projections from multiple models derived using different assumptions and/or scenarios and (ii) process-oriented diagnostics of model fidelity. Efforts to assign differential credibility to projections and/or models are also rapidly advancing. A framework to quantify and depict the credibility of statistically downscaled model output is presented and demonstrated. Here, the approach employs transfer functions in the form of robust and resilient generalized linear models applied to downscale daily minimum and maximum temperature anomalies at 10 locations using predictors drawn from ERA-Interim reanalysis and two global climate models (GCM; GFDL-ESM2M and MPI-ESM-LR). The downscaled time series are used to derive several impact relevant CLIMDEX temperature indices that are assigned credibility based on (1) the reproduction of relevant large-scale predictors by the GCMs (i.e. fraction of regression beta-weights derived from predictors that are well-reproduced) and (2) the degree of variance in the observations reproduced in the downscaled series following application of a new variance inflation technique. Credibility of the downscaled predictands varies across locations, between the two GCM and is generally higher for minimum temperature than maximum temperature. The differential credibility assessment framework demonstrated here is easy to use and flexible. It can be applied as is to inform decision makers regarding projection confidence, and/or extended to include other components of the transfer functions, and/or used to weight members of a statistically downscaled ensemble.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Baseline [ 18 F]GTP1 tau PET imaging is associated with subsequent cognitive decline in Alzheimer’s disease

Background: The role and implementation of tau PET imaging for predicting subsequent cognitive decline in Alzheimer’s disease (AD) remains uncertain. This study was designed to evaluate the relationship between baseline [ 18 F]GTP1 tau PET and subsequent longitudinal change across multiple cognitive measures over 18 months. Methods: Our analyses incorporated data from 67 participants, including cognitively normal controls (n = 10) and β-amyloid (Aβ)-positive individuals ([ 18 F] florbetapir Aβ PET) with prodromal (n = 26), mild (n = 16), or moderate (n = 15) AD. Baseline measurements included cortical volume (MRI), tau burden ([ 18 F]GTP1 tau PET), and cognitive assessments [Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE), Clinical Dementia Rating (CDR), 13-item version of the Alzheimer’s Disease Assessment Scale-Cognitive Subscale (ADAS-Cog13), and Repeatable Battery for the Assessment of Neuropsychological Status (RBANS)]. Cognitive assessments were repeated at 6-month intervals over an 18-month period. Associations between baseline [ 18 F]GTP1 tau PET indices and longitudinal cognitive performance were assessed via univariate (Spearman correlations) and multivariate (linear mixed effects models) approaches. The utility of potential prognostic tau PET cut points was assessed with ROC curves. Results: Univariate analyses indicated that greater baseline [ 18 F]GTP1 tau PET signal was associated with faster rates of subsequent decline on the MMSE, CDR, and ADAS-Cog13 across regions of interest (ROIs). In multivariate analyses adjusted for baseline age, cognitive performance, cortical volume, and Aβ PET SUVR, the prognostic performance of [ 18 F]GTP1 SUVR was most robust in the whole cortical gray ROI. When AD participants were dichotomized into low versus high tau subgroups based on baseline [ 18 F]GTP1 PET standardized uptake value ratios (SUVR) in the temporal (cutoff = 1.325) or whole cortical gray (cutoff = 1.245) ROIs, high tau subgroups demonstrated significantly more decline on the MMSE, CDR, and ADAS-Cog13. Conclusions: Our results suggest that [ 18 F]GTP1 tau PET represents a prognostic biomarker in AD and are consistent with data from other tau PET tracers. Tau PET imaging may have utility for identifying AD patients at risk for more rapid cognitive decline and for stratification and/or enrichment of participant selection in AD clinical trials.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Distinct Clinical Impact and Biological Function of Angiopoietin and Angiopoietin-like Proteins in Human Breast Cancer

Secreted angiopoietin/angiopoietin-like (ANGPT/ANGPTL) proteins are involved in many biological processes. However, the role of these proteins in human breast cancers (BCs) remains largely unclear. Here, we conducted integrated omics analyses to evaluate the clinical impact of ANGPT/ANGPTL proteins and to elucidate their biological functions. In BCs, we identified rare mutations in ANGPT/ANGPTL genes, frequent gains of ANGPT1, ANGPT4, and ANGPTL1, and frequent losses of ANGPT2, ANGPTL5, and ANGPTL7, but observed that ANGPTL1, 2, and 4 were robustly downregulated in multiple datasets. The expression levels of ANGPTL1, 5, and 8 were positively correlated with overall survival (OS), while the expression levels of ANGPTL4 were negatively correlated with OS. Additionally, the expression levels of ANGPTL1 and 7 were positively correlated with distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS), while the expression levels of ANGPT2 and ANGPTL4 were negatively correlated with DMFS. The prognostic impacts of ANGPT/ANGPTL genes depended on the molecular subtypes and on clinical factors. We discovered that various ANGPT/ANGPTL genes were co-expressed with various genes involved in different pathways. Finally, with the exception of ANGPTL3, the remaining genes showed significant correlations with cancer-associated fibroblasts, endothelial cells, and microenvironment score, whereas only ANGPTL6 was significantly correlated with immune score. Our findings provide strong evidence for the distinct clinical impact and biological function of ANGPT/ANGPTL proteins, but the question of whether some of them could be potential therapeutic targets still needs further investigation in BCs.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2003

Usefulness of microvolt T-wave alternans for prediction of ventricular tachyarrhythmic events in patients with dilated cardiomyopathy: results from a prospective observational study

OBJECTIVES: This study was designed to evaluate the ability of microvolt-level T-wave alternans (MTWA) to identify prospectively patients with idiopathic dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM) at risk of ventricular tachyarrhythmic events and to compare its predictive accuracy with that of conventional risk stratifiers. BACKGROUND: Patients with DCM are at increased risk of sudden death from ventricular tachyarrhythmias. At present, there are no established methods of assessing this risk. METHODS: A total of 137 patients with DCM underwent risk stratification through assessment of MTWA, left ventricular ejection fraction, baroreflex sensitivity (BRS), heart rate variability, presence of nonsustained ventricular tachycardia (VT), signal-averaged electrocardiogram, and presence of intraventricular conduction defect. The study end point was either sudden death, resuscitated ventricular fibrillation, or documented hemodynamically unstable VT. RESULTS: During an average follow-up of 14 +/- 6 months, MTWA and BRS were significant univariate predictors of ventricular tachyarrhythmic events (p < 0.035 and p < 0.015, respectively). Multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed that only MTWA was a significant predictor. CONCLUSIONS: Microvolt-level T-wave alternans is a powerful independent predictor of ventricular tachyarrhythmic events in patients with DCM.

Evaluation Studies↗
NASA NTRS2000

Efficacy of anticoagulation in resolving left atrial and left atrial appendage thrombi: A transesophageal echocardiographic study

BACKGROUND: Transesophageal echocardiography (TEE) is the gold standard for evaluation of the left atrium and the left atrial appendage (LAA) for the presence of thrombi. Anticoagulation is conventionally used for patients with atrial fibrillation to prevent embolization of atrial thrombi. The mechanism of benefit and effectiveness of thrombi resolution with anticoagulation is not well defined. METHODS AND RESULTS: We used a TEE database of 9058 consecutive studies performed between January 1996 and November 1998 to identify all patients with thrombi reported in the left atrium and/or LAA. One hundred seventy-four patients with thrombi in the left atrial cavity (LAC) and LAA were identified (1.9% of transesophageal studies performed). The incidence of LAA thrombi was 6.6 times higher than LAC thrombi (151 vs 23, respectively). Almost all LAC thrombi were visualized on transthoracic echocardiography (90.5%). Mitral valve pathology was associated with LAC location of thrombi (P <.0001), whereas atrial fibrillation or flutter was present in most patients with LAA location of thrombi. Anticoagulation of 47 +/- 18 days was associated with thrombus resolution in 80.1% of the patients on follow-up TEE. Further anticoagulation resulted in limited additional benefit. CONCLUSIONS: LAC thrombi are rare and are usually associated with mitral valve pathology. Transthoracic echocardiography is effective in identifying these thrombi. LAA thrombi occur predominantly in patients with atrial fibrillation or flutter. Short-term anticoagulation achieves a high rate of resolution of LAA and LAC thrombi but does not obviate the need for follow-up TEE.

NASA Discipline Cardiopulmonary↗
NASA NTRS1999

Fractal analysis of heart rate dynamics as a predictor of mortality in patients with depressed left ventricular function after acute myocardial infarction. TRACE Investigators. TRAndolapril Cardiac Evaluation

A number of new methods have been recently developed to quantify complex heart rate (HR) dynamics based on nonlinear and fractal analysis, but their value in risk stratification has not been evaluated. This study was designed to determine whether selected new dynamic analysis methods of HR variability predict mortality in patients with depressed left ventricular (LV) function after acute myocardial infarction (AMI). Traditional time- and frequency-domain HR variability indexes along with short-term fractal-like correlation properties of RR intervals (exponent alpha) and power-law scaling (exponent beta) were studied in 159 patients with depressed LV function (ejection fraction <35%) after an AMI. By the end of 4-year follow-up, 72 patients (45%) had died and 87 (55%) were still alive. Short-term scaling exponent alpha (1.07 +/- 0.26 vs 0.90 +/- 0.26, p <0.001) and power-law slope beta (-1.35 +/- 0.23 vs -1.44 +/- 0.25, p <0.05) differed between survivors and those who died, but none of the traditional HR variability measures differed between these groups. Among all analyzed variables, reduced scaling exponent alpha (<0.85) was the best univariable predictor of mortality (relative risk 3.17, 95% confidence interval 1.96 to 5.15, p <0.0001), with positive and negative predictive accuracies of 65% and 86%, respectively. In the multivariable Cox proportional hazards analysis, mortality was independently predicted by the reduced exponent alpha (p <0.001) after adjustment for several clinical variables and LV function. A short-term fractal-like scaling exponent was the most powerful HR variability index in predicting mortality in patients with depressed LV function. Reduction in fractal correlation properties implies more random short-term HR dynamics in patients with increased risk of death after AMI.

Non-NASA Center↗
NASA NTRS1998

Prognostic significance of electrical alternans versus signal averaged electrocardiography in predicting the outcome of electrophysiological testing and arrhythmia-free survival

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the accuracy of signal averaged electrocardiography (SAECG) and measurement of microvolt level T wave alternans as predictors of susceptibility to ventricular arrhythmias. DESIGN: Analysis of new data from a previously published prospective investigation. SETTING: Electrophysiology laboratory of a major referral hospital. PATIENTS AND INTERVENTIONS: 43 patients, not on class I or class III antiarrhythmic drug treatment, undergoing invasive electrophysiological testing had SAECG and T wave alternans measurements. The SAECG was considered positive in the presence of one (SAECG-I) or two (SAECG-II) of three standard criteria. T wave alternans was considered positive if the alternans ratio exceeded 3.0. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Inducibility of sustained ventricular tachycardia or fibrillation during electrophysiological testing, and 20 month arrhythmia-free survival. RESULTS: The accuracy of T wave alternans in predicting the outcome of electrophysiological testing was 84% (p < 0.0001). Neither SAECG-I (accuracy 60%; p < 0.29) nor SAECG-II (accuracy 71%; p < 0.10) was a statistically significant predictor of electrophysiological testing. SAECG, T wave alternans, electrophysiological testing, and follow up data were available in 36 patients while not on class I or III antiarrhythmic agents. The accuracy of T wave alternans in predicting the outcome of arrhythmia-free survival was 86% (p < 0.030). Neither SAECG-I (accuracy 65%; p < 0.21) nor SAECG-II (accuracy 71%; p < 0.48) was a statistically significant predictor of arrhythmia-free survival. CONCLUSIONS: T wave alternans was a highly significant predictor of the outcome of electrophysiological testing and arrhythmia-free survival, while SAECG was not a statistically significant predictor. Although these results need to be confirmed in prospective clinical studies, they suggest that T wave alternans may serve as a non-invasive probe for screening high risk populations for malignant ventricular arrhythmias.

Non-NASA Center↗