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A machine learning approach for clinker quality prediction and nonlinear model predictive control design for a rotary cement kiln
Abstract Cement manufacturing is energy‐intensive (5Gj/t) and comprises a significant portion of the energy footprint of concrete systems. Incorporating modern monitoring, simulation and control systems will allow lower energy use, lower environmental impact, and lower costs of this widely used construction material. One of the goals of the CESMII roadmap project on the Smart Manufacturing of Cement included developing an analytical process model for clinker quality that includes the chemistry of the kiln feed and accounts for critical process variables. This predictive model will be used in nonlinear model predictive control system designed to significantly reduce process energy use while maintaining or improving product quality. In the cement manufacturing plant used in this study, the kiln feed (meal) is tested every 12 h and used to estimate the mineral composition of the cement kiln output (clinker) using the stoichiometry‐based Bogue's model and the expertise of the plant operators. During kiln operation, kiln output (clinker) is sampled and tested every 2 h to measure its chemical and mineral composition. The predicted and measured values of the clinker composition are used by the plant operators to adjust the kiln input stream and the production process characteristics to maintain stable operation and uniform product quality. However, the time delay between prediction and testing, along with inaccuracies inherent in the Bogue's model have made any process changes designed to minimize energy use problematic, especially in‐light of potential clinker quality issues that process changes often pose. A new analytical model that integrates quality information and process operation information has been developed from data collected from 2 years of production from an operating cement facility. To make the model fuel‐type‐independent, consumed heat energy was computed in the model instead of fuel type and amount. A Feedforward Network was trained and tailored from collected data. Many data‐based simulations were conducted to quantitatively evaluate the proposed model and the 5‐fold cross‐validation procedure was used to test the models. The resulting predictive model was shown to have a low root mean square error (MSE) with respect to the estimated clinker mineral composition compared to that using the industry standard “Bogue’ model”. The end goal of this work was to develop a single machine learning tool that allows the use of quality control data and process control variables to improve energy efficiency of the process in a continuous fashion. The proposed nonlinear model predictive control system (NMPC) can generate predicted kiln production characteristics based on manipulated variables in manner that accurately follows the target product quality values. Simulation results also show that the proposed model produced accurate predictions of kiln outputs that fell within the required constraints, while manipulating control variables within typical operational ranges.
Search for direct production of electroweakinos in final states with missing transverse momentum and a Higgs boson decaying into photons in pp collisions at $ \sqrt{s} $ = 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector
A search for a chargino-neutralino pair decaying via the 125 GeV Higgs boson into photons is presented. The study is based on the data collected between 2015 and 2018 with the ATLAS detector at the LHC, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 139 fb –1 of pp collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 13 TeV. No significant excess over the expected background is observed. Upper limits at 95% confidence level for a massless $χ$~ $^0_1$ are set on several electroweakino production cross-sections and the visible cross-section for beyond the Standard Model processes. In the context of simplified supersymmetric models, 95% confidence-level limits of up to 310 GeV in m($χ$~$^±_1$/ $χ$~ $^0_2$), where m($χ$~ $^0_1$) = 0.5 GeV, are set. Limits at 95% confidence level are also set on the $χ$~$^±_1$/ $χ$~ $^0_2$ cross-section in the mass plane of m($χ$~$^±_1$/ $χ$~ $^0_2$) and m($χ$~ $^0_1$), and on scenarios with gravitino as the lightest supersymmetric particle. Upper limits at the 95% confidence-level are set on the higgsino production cross-section. Higgsino masses below 380 GeV are excluded for the case of the higgsino fully decaying into a Higgs boson and a gravitino.
Search for new particles in events with a hadronically decaying W or Z boson and large missing transverse momentum at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV using the ATLAS detector
A search is presented for new particles produced in proton-proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 13 TeV that result in final states comprising a massive vector ( W or Z ) boson that decays hadronically and large missing transverse momentum. The data sample was collected with the ATLAS experiment at the Large Hadron Collider from 2015 to 2018 and corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 140 fb - 1 . No significant excess over the Standard Model expectation is observed. Model-independent 95% confidence-level limits on the visible cross-section that range from 0.3 fb to 79.5 fb are obtained for non-Standard-Model processes. Exclusion limits are also presented for models with axion-like particles, for two-Higgs-doublet models with a pseudo-scalar mediator between the Standard Model and the dark sector, for the invisible decay of the Higgs boson and for pair-produced weakly interacting dark matter candidates.
Uncertainty-aware mixed-variable machine learning for materials design
Abstract Data-driven design shows the promise of accelerating materials discovery but is challenging due to the prohibitive cost of searching the vast design space of chemistry, structure, and synthesis methods. Bayesian optimization (BO) employs uncertainty-aware machine learning models to select promising designs to evaluate, hence reducing the cost. However, BO with mixed numerical and categorical variables, which is of particular interest in materials design, has not been well studied. In this work, we survey frequentist and Bayesian approaches to uncertainty quantification of machine learning with mixed variables. We then conduct a systematic comparative study of their performances in BO using a popular representative model from each group, the random forest-based Lolo model (frequentist) and the latent variable Gaussian process model (Bayesian). We examine the efficacy of the two models in the optimization of mathematical functions, as well as properties of structural and functional materials, where we observe performance differences as related to problem dimensionality and complexity. By investigating the machine learning models’ predictive and uncertainty estimation capabilities, we provide interpretations of the observed performance differences. Our results provide practical guidance on choosing between frequentist and Bayesian uncertainty-aware machine learning models for mixed-variable BO in materials design.
Accuracy versus precision in boosted top tagging with the ATLAS detector
The identification of top quark decays where the top quark has a large momentum transverse to the beam axis, known as top tagging , is a crucial component in many measurements of Standard Model processes and searches for beyond the Standard Model physics at the Large Hadron Collider. Machine learning techniques have improved the performance of top tagging algorithms, but the size of the systematic uncertainties for all proposed algorithms has not been systematically studied. This paper presents the performance of several machine learning based top tagging algorithms on a dataset constructed from simulated proton-proton collision events measured with the ATLAS detector at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV. The systematic uncertainties associated with these algorithms are estimated through an approximate procedure that is not meant to be used in a physics analysis, but is appropriate for the level of precision required for this study. The most performant algorithms are found to have the largest uncertainties, motivating the development of methods to reduce these uncertainties without compromising performance. To enable such efforts in the wider scientific community, the datasets used in this paper are made publicly available.
Towards Net-Zero: Nuclear-Assisted Waste Biomass to Liquid Fuel in Eastern Idaho
A nuclear assisted carbon negative hybrid energy process that enables production of synthetic bio-crude oil and biochar from Eastern Idaho waste biomass is proposed. The process integrates nuclear powered electricity with high temperature steam electrolysis and biomass hydropyrolysis. The bio-crude oil is of sufficient composition and blended with traditional crude oil at a refinery. Hydrogen from the electrolyzer is pressurized and inserted into the pyrolyzer. Non condensable gases generated in the hydropyrolysis process are burned with oxygen from the electrolyzer to produce heat for the electrolyzer, biomass dryer, and pyrolyzer. The biochar is returned to the soil via fertilizer application and remains there for thousands of years. Since the total process uses nuclear generated electricity, the carbon in the biochar is ultimately sequestered from the atmosphere, thus making the process carbon negative. Using Eastern Idaho wheat or barley straw, this hybrid energy process has the potential to provide an alternative petroleum source. Two options exist for the system design: 1) send electricity from the nuclear plant and straw to a chemical processing plant to produce the bio-crude and biochar, 2) construct the biomass processing facility near the nuclear plant to allow use of nuclear-generated process heat to drive the chemical. Process model description and results are discussed. The process is sized to produce gasoline and diesel at the rate that the INL uses every day for fleet usage.
Tree water uptake patterns across the globe
Plant water uptake from the soil is a crucial element of the global hydrological cycle and essential for vegetation drought resilience. Yet, knowledge of how the distribution of water uptake depth (WUD) varies across species, climates, and seasons is scarce relative to our knowledge of aboveground plant functions. With a global literature review, we found that average WUD varied more among biomes than plant functional types (i.e. deciduous/evergreen broadleaves and conifers), illustrating the importance of the hydroclimate, especially precipitation seasonality, on WUD. By combining records of rooting depth with WUD, we observed a consistently deeper maximum rooting depth than WUD with the largest differences in arid regions – indicating that deep taproots act as lifelines while not contributing to the majority of water uptake. The most ubiquitous observation across the literature was that woody plants switch water sources to soil layers with the highest water availability within short timescales. Hence, seasonal shifts to deep soil layers occur across the globe when shallow soils are drying out, allowing continued transpiration and hydraulic safety. While there are still significant gaps in our understanding of WUD, the consistency across global ecosystems allows integration of existing knowledge into the next generation of vegetation process models.
Energy Arbitrage with Hydrogen: HTSE + Combustion Turbine
The Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program seeks to keep Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) competitive in the changing energy market. The Flexible Plant Operation and Generation (FPOG) pathway investigates Energy Storage Systems (ESS) to give operators an alternative to curtailment or paying to put power on the grid. This work investigates the concept of diverting heat and electricity to High Temperature Steam Electrolysis (HTSE) to produce hydrogen when grid demand is low, storing that hydrogen, then burning it in a combustion turbine to produce zero-emission electricity when grid demand is high. A process model of the combustion turbine was developed in Aspen HYSYS, which was used to complete a parametric analysis and techno-economic analysis.
Linear and Nonlinear Solvers for Simulating Multiphase Flow within Large-Scale Engineered Subsurface Systems
Simulation of multiphase flow in the subsurface is well-known to be computationally challenging. While there have been many studies that have explored approaches to overcoming these challenges, they often utilize relatively simple case studies. In this paper, we focus on the unique numerical challenges posed by modeling large-scale engineered subsurface systems, characterized by discrete features embedded in a heterogeneous natural subsurface setting. The man-made features such as shafts, tunnels, and barriers often cause multiple challenges in modeling the domain for multiphase porous media flow. This flow scenario can have a wide range of applications such as nuclear waste repositories, enhanced recovery of a petroleum reservoir, geothermal engineering, and carbon sequestration. An example of these severe numerical challenges is the case of performance assessment (PA) for Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP), the only operating deep geological repository in the US, which simulates extreme material properties of bedded salt rock formation and extreme contrast due to open excavation next to the formation. The models have extremes not only of permeability and porosity but also of the constitutive models needed for multiphase flow; additionally, they have process models like salt creep closure reducing porosity over time, fracturing in clay and anhydrite interbeds of the bedded salt, gas generation from the waste materials, and unintentional human borehole intrusions in some scenarios. Numerical simulations require the solution of coupled systems of nonlinear PDEs; in our work, we use the open-source simulator PFLOTRAN which is based on Finite Volume discretization. The solution of the nonlinear equations requires use of the Newton-Raphson iteration at each time step, which entails the solution of the linearized Jacobian system at each iteration. The effects of all the processes (i.e., large number of unknowns, highly nonlinear constitutive relations, large contrasts in material properties in short distances) lead to an ill-conditioned Jacobian matrix that severely challenges traditional linear solver, i.e., stabilized biconjugate gradient with block Jacobi incomplete LU preconditioner (BCGS-ILU) leading to non-convergence for traditional Newton-Raphson nonlinear solver causing unacceptably long computation time for each model. This paper presents linear solvers such as constrained pressure residual (CPR) two-stage preconditioner with alternate-block-factorization (ABF) and quasi- implicit pressure and explicit saturation (QIMPES) decouplers and flexible generalized residual solver (FGMRES). The new general-purpose nonlinear solver, Newton trust-region dogleg Cauchy (NTRDC), is also introduced to resolve extreme nonlinearities in the models. We demonstrate the effectiveness of each method relative to the default BCGS-Newton solver. The two best cases had nearly 50 times speed-up and achieved completion of a simulation in 14 hours that never completed due to non-convergence with the default solver. We also investigate the strong scalability of each method and discuss some of the deficiencies found for Block Jacobi preconditioner using parallel domain decomposition, and node packing effects of modern processor architecture.
Techno-economic and life cycle analysis of synthetic natural gas production from low-carbon H 2 and point-source or atmospheric CO 2 in the United States
Synthetic natural gas (SNG) is of great interest in reducing fossil energy consumption while maintaining compatibility with existing NG infrastructure and end-use applications equipment. SNG can be produced using clean H 2 generated from renewable or nuclear energy and CO 2 captured from stationary sources or the atmosphere. In this study, we develop an engineering process model of SNG production using Aspen Plus® and production scales reported by the industry. We examine the levelized cost and life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of SNG production under various CO 2 supply scenarios. Considering the higher cost of H 2 transportation compared with CO 2 transportation, we assume that CO 2 feedstock is transported via pipeline to the H 2 production location, which is collocated with the SNG plant. We also evaluate the cost of CO 2 captured from the atmosphere, assuming the direct air capture process can occur near the SNG facility. Depending on the CO 2 supply chain, the levelized cost of SNG is estimated to be in the range of $\$45–76$ per million British thermal units (MMBtu) on a higher heating value (HHV) basis. The SNG production cost may be reduced to $\$27–57$/MMBtu-HHV by applying a tax credit available in the United States for low-carbon H 2 production (45V). With a lower electricity price of 3¢/kWh for water electrolysis and accounting for a 45V tax credit, the SNG cost reaches parity with the cost of fossil NG. Depending on the CO 2 supply chain, SNG can reduce life cycle GHG emissions by 52–88% compared with fossil NG.
Physics-Informed and Data-Driven Prediction of Residual Stress in Three-Dimensional Machining
Efficient and reliable prediction of machining-induced residual stress (RS) is a key requirement for truly integrated computational materials engineering (ICME). Currently available process modeling approaches, including empirical, analytical, and numerical methodologies lack predictive power and require substantial calibration and validation data. Moreover, most model-based approaches consider only two-dimensional (2D) (i.e., orthogonal), cutting processes. Meanwhile, industrial processes such as milling, turning, and drilling are inherently three-dimensional (3D). The present work attempts to bridge the gap between 2D and 3D through careful consideration of the process physics, including geometric, kinematic, and size-effect constraints to realize robust prediction of how RS develops in 3D machining. Using a novel in-situ experimental technique and digital image correlation (DIC) to determine equivalent Hertzian contact widths, contact pressures, and friction coefficients, the proposed methodology leverages a discretized conversion algorithm that includes multi-pass shakedown effects. This paper presents a semi-analytical model to predict machining-induced RS in 3D turning operations, which are used representatively for 3D processes more generally. Rather than follow a ‘brute force’ 3D FEM approach or conduct countless experiments to train a purely data-driven machine learning algorithm, the proposed approach builds on previous 2D modeling work. Through careful consideration of the process physics, including complex geometry/kinematic considerations of 3D turning, the authors demonstrated an experimentally calibrated approach, as well as validation based on published RS data. Model predictions and previously published measurement data of RS depth profiles for turning of Inconel 718 were compared for a range of process parameters. Correlation between the proposed 3D model and validation data was found to be within the margin of experimental error for most conditions. The proposed model appears to capture the overall behavior of 3D RS depth profiles with acceptable accuracy, particularly the key metrics of near-surface stress, peak stress magnitude and location, as well as overall stress profile depth. This report presents a physics-informed, data-driven approach for efficient calibration of a 2D model for machining-induced RS through DIC analysis of in-situ characterized subsurface displacement fields.
Spatial and temporal prediction of radiation dose rates near Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant
In this paper, we have developed a methodology to estimate the spatiotemporal distribution of radiation air dose rates around the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP). In our exploratory data analysis, we found that (1) the temporal evolution of dose rates is composed of a log-linear decay trend and fluctuations of air dose rates that are spatially correlated among adjacent monitoring posts; and (2) the slope of the log-linear environmental decay trend can be represented as a function of the apparent initial dose rates, coordinate position, land-use type, and soil type. From these observations, we first estimated the log-linear decay trend at each location based on these predictors, using the random forest method. We then developed a modified Kalman filter coupled with a Gaussian process model to estimate the dose-rate time series at a given location and time. We applied this method to the Fukushima evacuation zone (as of March 2017), which included 17 monitoring post locations (with monitoring datasets collected between 2014 and 2018) and generated a time series of dose-rate maps. Our results show that this approach allows us to produce accurate spatial and temporal predictions of radiation dose-rate maps using limited spatiotemporal measurements.
Massively parallel modeling and inversion of electrical resistivity tomography data using PFLOTRAN
Abstract. Electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) is a broadly accepted geophysical method for subsurface investigations. Interpretation of field ERT data usually requires the application of computationally intensive forward modeling and inversion algorithms. For large-scale ERT data, the efficiency of these algorithms depends on the robustness, accuracy, and scalability on high-performance computing resources. In this regard, we present a robust and highly scalable implementation of forward modeling and inversion algorithms for ERT data. The implementation is publicly available and developed within the framework of PFLOTRAN, an open-source, state-of-the-art massively parallel subsurface flow and transport simulation code. The forward modeling is based on a finite-volume discretization of the governing differential equations, and the inversion uses a Gauss–Newton optimization scheme. To evaluate the accuracy of the forward modeling, two examples are first presented by considering layered (1D) and 3D earth conductivity models. The computed numerical results show good agreement with the analytical solutions for the layered earth model and results from a well-established code for the 3D model. Inversion of ERT data, simulated for a 3D model, is then performed to demonstrate the inversion capability by recovering the conductivity of the model. To demonstrate the parallel performance of PFLOTRAN's ERT process model and inversion capabilities, large-scale scalability tests are performed by using up to 131 072 processes on a leadership class supercomputer. These tests are performed for the two most computationally intensive steps of the ERT inversion: forward modeling and Jacobian computation. For the forward modeling, we consider models with up to 122 ×106 degrees of freedom (DOFs) in the resulting system of linear equations and demonstrate that the code exhibits almost linear scalability on up to 10 000 DOFs per process. On the other hand, the code shows superlinear scalability for the Jacobian computation, mainly because all computations are fairly evenly distributed over each process with no parallel communication.
Technical, Economic, Energetic, and Environmental Evaluation of Pretreatment Strategies for Scaling Control in Brackish Water Desalination Brine Treatment
Effective pretreatment is essential for achieving long-term stable operation and high water recovery during the desalination of alternative waters. This study developed a process modeling approach for technical, economic, energetic, and environmental assessments of pretreatment technologies to identify the impacts of each technology treating brackish water desalination brine with high scaling propensity. The model simulations evaluated individual pretreatment technologies, including chemical softening (CS), chemical coagulation (CC), electrocoagulation (EC), and ion exchange (IX). In addition, combinations of these pretreatment technologies aiming at the effective reduction of key scaling constituents such as hardness and silica were investigated. The three evaluation parameters in this assessment consist of levelized cost of water (LCOW, $/m 3 ), specific energy consumption and cumulative energy demand (SEC|CED, kWh/m 3 ), and carbon dioxide emissions (CO 2 , kg CO 2-eq /m 3 ). The case study evaluated in this work was the desalination brine from the Kay Bailey Hutchison Desalination Plant (KBHDP) with a total dissolved solids (TDS) concentration of 11,000 mg/L and rich in hardness and silica. The evaluation of individual pretreatment units from the highest to lowest LCOW, SEC|CED, and CO 2 emissions in the KBHDP brine was IX > CS > EC > CC, CS > IX > EC > CC, and CC > CS > EC > IX, respectively. In the case of pretreatment combinations for the KBHDP, the EC + IX treatment combination was shown to be the best in terms of the LCOW and CO 2 emissions. The modeling and evaluation of these pretreatment units provide valuable guidance on the selection of cost-effective, energy-efficient, and environmentally sustainable pretreatment technologies tailored to desalination brine applications for minimal- or zero-liquid discharge.
The EGS Collab Project: Learnings from Experiment 1
The primary objective of the EGS Collab Project sponsored by DOE is to increase the understanding needed to efficiently implement enhanced geothermal systems (EGS). One goal of the EGS Collab project is to create a collaborative research environment in which to study stimulation of crystalline rock at the 10 meter scale. Key to this effort is the collection of high quality data to allow comparison to numerical coupled process models in an effort to build confidence in the codes and modeling techniques used. In response to this, the EGS Collab team has created an underground test bed at the Sanford Underground Research Facility (SURF) in Lead SD at a depth of approximately 1.5 km to examine hydraulic fracturing (Experiment 1). We are currently designing a second test bed aimed at investigating shear stimulation (Experiment 2). At the Experiment 1 location, we have characterized our host rock using laboratory testing and numerous field-based geophysical and geological techniques, and created a well-instrumented test bed to allow us to carefully monitor stimulation events and flow tests. In addition to the installed geophysical sensors, we have used tracer tests, differences in the ambient microbial communities at flow collection locations, and cold water injection to inform us about dynamic flow pathways. In Experiment 1, we have hydraulically stimulated the host rock in a number times at several locations in one well, creating new fractures that connect to existing fractures between the injection and production boreholes. We have performed long-term ambient and chilled water injection tests as an analog to EGS, and have monitored system changes resulting from these water injections through geophysical monitoring, flow and pressure measurements, tracer tests, and microbiology. Here, we summarize the tests performed, issues identified including poroelastic and thermoelastic effects, Joule-Thomson effects, restarting effects, indications of flow channeling, and the primary learnings from Experiment 1.
Trusted Simulation: Considering Model Quality in the Context of User Trust
A high‐quality simulation model should help its users to easily and appropriately calibrate their trust in the model. Traditional evaluation metrics such as validation and robustness are necessary but insufficient for this task. Trust calibration depends on factors like the model's transparency, applicability to intended use, usability, reputation, and consideration of potential bias. This article proposes a framework for designing and evaluating system dynamics models by considering factors that contribute to the proper calibration of user trust. This framework takes inspiration from trusted artificial intelligence, broadening our traditional concept of model quality and explicitly focusing on what users need to consider a model trustworthy and to understand the model's relevance to its intended purpose. The trusted simulation framework can improve our integration of model quality activities throughout the modeling process, leading to more impactful and better‐targeted model design, development, and evaluation.
Controlled spalling-based mechanical substrate exfoliation for III-V solar cells: A review
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